Group 1 - Lithium mining stocks experienced significant intraday fluctuations, with Yongshan Lithium Industry hitting the daily limit up, and companies such as Rongjie Co., Tibet Mining, Tianqi Lithium, Shengxin Lithium Energy, and Tianhua New Energy also seeing gains [1] - The main contract for lithium carbonate on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose nearly 5% during the day, after previously dropping over 3% [1]

Group 1 - The lithium mining sector is experiencing a significant rally, with Yongshan Lithium Industry (603399) hitting the daily limit up [1] - Tianqi Lithium (002466) has seen an increase of over 5%, indicating strong market interest [1] - Other companies such as Tibet Mining (000762), Weiling Co., Ltd. (002667), Shengxin Lithium Energy (002240), and Yongxing Materials (002756) are also witnessing upward movement in their stock prices [1] Group 2 - There is a notable influx of dark pool capital into these stocks, suggesting increased investor confidence and potential for further growth [1]

Report Summary Market Analysis - On July 23, 2025, the main contract 2509 of lithium carbonate opened at 73,500 yuan/ton and closed at 69,380 yuan/ton, a -4.07% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 1,334,159 lots, and the open interest was 362,054 lots, down from 411,638 lots the previous day. The basis was -2,470 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 10,754 lots, a change of 665 lots from the previous day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 68,800 - 72,100 yuan/ton, a change of 1,350 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 68,300 - 69,300 yuan/ton, also a change of 1,350 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 770 US dollars/ton, a change of 3 US dollars/ton from the previous day [1]. - Downstream material factories have low price acceptance, leading to a widening price gap between upstream and downstream. The market transactions are mainly between upstream lithium salt factories and traders, and downstream material enterprises generally adopt a wait - and - see attitude except for a small amount of rigid procurement, resulting in light trading volume [1]. Strategy - The sharp decline in the futures market was mainly affected by the cooling of overall commodity and capital sentiment and news of a mining end loosening. The outcome of the lithium mine suspension is still unknown. In the short - term, news and warehouse receipt games have a significant impact, so risk management is recommended. If the mining end disturbances weaken in the future, the upstream can sell hedging in the far - month contracts [2]. - For unilateral trading, sell hedging at high prices when appropriate [2]. - There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3].

Group 1: Steel Price Trends - Steel prices have rebounded during the traditional off-season, with 18mm rebar, hot-rolled coil, and cold-rolled coil prices increasing by 7.8%, 8.5%, and 6.9% respectively compared to their yearly lows [2] - The futures market showed even more significant increases, with rebar futures rising 12.4% and hot-rolled coil futures up 13.6% from their respective yearly lows [2] - Factors contributing to the price increase include asset cycles, policy expectations, rising costs, and market sentiment [4][5] Group 2: Industry Performance and Outlook - Steel companies have shown improved performance in the first half of the year, with several companies forecasting significant profit increases [7] - The steel industry is closely tied to macroeconomic conditions, and a positive economic outlook, along with controlled crude steel production, is expected to support steel prices in the second half of the year [8] - The "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to have a long-term positive impact on the industry, promoting structural adjustments and the elimination of outdated production capacity [5][10] Group 3: Raw Material Costs - Rising raw material prices, particularly coal, have contributed to increased production costs for steel manufacturers, thereby supporting higher steel prices [6] - The recent rebound in commodity prices is seen as a reaction to previous significant declines, creating a demand for recovery [5] Group 4: Glass Market Dynamics - The glass market has also experienced price increases, with the main contract price rising by 9.08% on July 22, leading to a positive trading atmosphere [9][10] - Factors driving the glass price increase include previous market overselling, policy guidance on supply-side "anti-involution," and positive feedback between futures and spot markets [10] Group 5: Lithium Carbonate Market - Lithium carbonate prices have shown a significant rebound, with a 17.8% increase since June 23, driven by supply-demand dynamics and regulatory changes in the lithium mining sector [13][14] - The market anticipates a narrowing supply-demand gap by 2025, with potential for a balanced market by 2026 [13][15]

Group 1: Report Summary - The current market shows a pattern of "strong expectation, weak reality". The anti - involution theme has a deeper negative impact on lithium carbonate, but recent rectification requirements in Jiangxi and Qinghai have tightened supply expectations, pushing up the bullish sentiment. The basis has widened, creating a certain delivery profit space for the LC2509 contract, and a further rise in futures prices may attract industrial hedging positions [3][4]. Group 2: Supply - Demand Balance Sheet 2.1 Lithium Carbonate Balance Sheet - The lithium carbonate balance sheet generally shows inventory accumulation. For example, on June 30, 2025, the supply was 78,090 tons, demand was 93,815 tons, imports were 22,500 tons, exports were 700 tons, and inventory change was 6,075 tons [6][8]. 2.2 Lithium Hydroxide Balance Sheet - Data on the lithium hydroxide balance sheet is presented, including supply, demand, imports, exports, inventory changes, and cumulative balances. For instance, on June 30, 2025, supply was 24,450 tons, demand was 21,825 tons, imports were 800 tons, exports were 4,700 tons, and inventory change was - 1,275 tons [9][11]. Group 3: Upstream Ore Supply, Demand, and Price 3.1 Lithium Spodumene Imports - Import volume and average import price data for lithium concentrate from different countries are provided. In June 2025, the total import volume was 427,626 tons, with 255,506 tons from Australia and 39,811 tons from Brazil. The average import price was $639 per ton [13][17]. 3.2 Chinese Lithium Mines - Information on domestic lithium ore production, market prices, and weekly inventory is given, including data on sample lithium mica mines and lithium pyroxene mines [18][20]. Group 4: Lithium Salt Supply, Demand, and Price 4.1 Lithium Salt Spot and Futures Prices - Spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide are presented, along with their price differences and futures prices and basis. For example, on July 22, 2025, the battery - grade lithium carbonate price was 69,000 yuan per ton [22][26]. 4.2 Production Cost and Profit - Production costs and profits of lithium carbonate from different raw materials (lithium spodumene, low - grade mica, high - grade mica) are provided. On July 22, 2025, the production cost of lithium spodumene - produced lithium carbonate was 49,455 yuan per ton, with a profit of 18,495 yuan per ton [34][38]. 4.3 Lithium Carbonate Production - Weekly and monthly production data of lithium carbonate are given, including production by grade (battery - grade and industrial - grade) and raw material (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, recycling). In June 2025, battery - grade lithium carbonate production was 57,630 tons [39][49]. 4.4 Operating Rate - The operating rate of the concentrate end is continuously increasing, and data on the operating rates of lithium salt (carbonate and hydroxide) and by raw material are provided [50][54]. 4.5 Lithium Carbonate Monthly Imports - Import volume data of lithium carbonate from different countries are provided, including Argentina and Chile. In May 2025, the total import volume was 21,146 tons [55][59]. 4.6 Lithium Carbonate Inventory - Inventory data of lithium carbonate at downstream and smelting plants, weekly inventory, and futures registered warehouse receipt quantity are presented [60][65]. Group 5: Lithium Salt Downstream Production and Demand 5.1 Lithium Iron Phosphate - Production and operating rate data of lithium iron phosphate are provided. In June 2025, the production was 285,400 tons, and the operating rate was 57% [67][71]. 5.2 Ternary Materials - Production, operating rate, and import - export volume data of ternary materials are given. In June 2025, the production was 64,615 tons [73][82]. 5.3 Ternary Material Import - Export Volume - Import, export, and net import volume data of ternary materials are presented. In May 2025, the net import was - 4,874 tons [78][82]. 5.4 New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - Production data of pure - electric and plug - in hybrid vehicles, battery production, and dealer inventory warning index are provided. In June 2025, the dealer inventory warning index was 56.6 [83][87]. 5.5 Lithium Battery Import - Export Volume - Import, export, net export volume, and net export growth rate data of lithium - ion batteries are presented. In March 2025, the net export was 280.2 million units, with a growth rate of 28.17% [88][91].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The price increase is mainly due to supply - side disturbances, which boost market sentiment but have limited impact on the fundamentals. In the short term, strong market sentiment and frequent rumors support futures prices, but the pricing weight of the spot market may increase, and industry players can consider hedging at high prices. Also, the basis of the current spot for the 08 contract has been repaired, which will stimulate the production of warehouse receipts [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 69,100 yuan/ton, up 1,100 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 67,450 yuan/ton, up 1,100 yuan [1] - The closing prices and price increases of lithium carbonate futures contracts (2508 - 2512) range from 71,780 - 72,880 yuan/ton, with price increases from 2.68% - 2.93% [1] Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) price is 742 yuan, up 12 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) price is 1030 yuan, up 40 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) price is 1590 yuan, up 45 yuan; phosphorus lithium aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) price is 5400 yuan, up 225 yuan; phosphorus lithium aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) price is 6325 yuan, up 250 yuan [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 32,340 yuan, up 265 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 142,850 yuan, up 200 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 115,495 yuan, up 300 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 120,375 yuan, up 200 yuan [2] Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1650 yuan/ton, with no change; the price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 3780 yuan, down 500 yuan; the price spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 80 yuan, down 60 yuan; the price spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is 680 yuan, down 60 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 142,620 tons, up 1827 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 58,039 tons, down 559 tons; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 41,271 tons, up 506 tons; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 43,310 tons, up 1880 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 10,089 tons, up 120 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 67,331 yuan, and the profit is 833 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is not clearly stated, and the profit is - 5969 yuan [3] Company Announcement - Yichun Yinli, a subsidiary of Jiangte Motor, is expected to conduct equipment maintenance on its production line on July 25, 2025, with an estimated maintenance time of about 26 days [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate may be in a state where industry expectations are somewhat restored, but the actual situation remains weak. The industry inventory is accumulating, and more effective demand is needed to drive industry destocking. [2] - The lithium carbonate futures market shows a situation where the main contract oscillates downward, the trading volume decreases, the spot is at a premium, and the basis strengthens. [2] - In the option market, the call position dominates, the market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly increases. [2] - The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position oscillating trading and pay attention to controlling risks in trading rhythm. [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 69,380 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3,500 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 158,571 hands, a decrease of 10,064 hands; the position volume of the main contract is 362,054 hands, a decrease of 49,584 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is 700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 10,089 hands/ton, an increase of 120 hands. [2] 3.2现货市场 - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 70,450 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,350 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 68,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,350 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is 1,070 yuan/ton, an increase of 4,850 yuan. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 730 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite is 6,325 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is 1,912 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 44,100 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 17,697.62 tons, a decrease of 3,448.16 tons; the monthly export volume is 429.65 tons, an increase of 142.92 tons; the enterprise operating rate is 52%, an increase of 5 percentage points. [2] - The monthly output of power batteries is 129,200 MWh, an increase of 5,700 MWh. The prices of manganese - acid lithium, lithium hexafluorophosphate, cobalt - acid lithium, and various ternary materials remain unchanged. [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 51%, a decrease of 4 percentage points; the operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode is 52%, an increase of 3 percentage points. [2] - The monthly output of new energy vehicles is 1,268,000 vehicles, a decrease of 2,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume is 1,329,000 vehicles, an increase of 22,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate is 44.32%, an increase of 0.33 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume is 6,937,000 vehicles, an increase of 1,993,000 vehicles. [2] - The monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 205,000 vehicles, a decrease of 70,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume is 1.06 million vehicles, an increase of 455,000 vehicles. [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The total call position is 193,954 contracts, a decrease of 1,039 contracts; the total put position is 92,722 contracts, an increase of 3,525 contracts; the put - call ratio of total positions is 47.81%, an increase of 2.0625 percentage points; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.39%, an increase of 0.0457 percentage points. [2] 3.7 Industry News - In the first half of 2025, Zimbabwe's spodumene concentrate exports increased by 30% year - on - year, reaching 586,197 tons. [2] - In June 2025, the total import volume of spodumene was about 576,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.8%. Australia, Zimbabwe, and South Africa were the main importing countries. [2] - In June 2025, the total import volume of lithium carbonate was about 17,698 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16% and a year - on - year decrease of 10%. The export volume was 430 tons, a month - on - month increase of 50% and a year - on - year decrease of 14%. [2]

Group 1 - The market is currently at a high level, and the company is cautious about making investments outside its capability circle, regardless of market fluctuations [1][2][3] - The banking sector is showing signs of recovery, supported by the securities sector, but the overall trend may only lead to fluctuations rather than a return to past highs [5] - The prices of key raw materials for new energy, such as silicon and lithium, have experienced significant volatility, indicating potential market instability [6][7] Group 2 - The liquor industry saw a brief surge but has since retreated, suggesting that new opportunities may be developing [8][9] - Maintaining independent judgment in trading is crucial, especially when the company is among the minority in its views [10]

策略 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-23 宏观及供应端扰动较多，碳酸锂盘面仍偏强 市场分析 2025-07-22，碳酸锂主力合约2509开于71900元/吨，收于72880元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化2.71%。当日成 交量为1118226手，持仓量为411638手，前一交易日持仓量381185手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为-2180元/吨 （电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单10089手，较上个交易日变化120手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价68100-70100元/吨，较前一交易日变化1100元/吨，工业级碳酸锂 报价66950-67950元/吨，较前一交易日变化1100元/吨。6%锂精矿价格768美元/吨，较前一日变化10美元/吨。据SMM 数据，受碳酸锂供应端减量信息扰动影响，期货价格持续大幅上涨。下游正极材料厂对此价位接受意愿较低，但 在持续上涨的市场趋势下，叠加库存持续消化，采购意愿已出现边际改善。 当前宏观情绪偏强，供应端扰动消息较多，锂矿审批问题及盐厂减产消息不断，导致碳酸锂盘面偏强，短期观望 为主。 风险 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: July 23, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate futures market rose due to the overnight announcement of Jiangte Motor's production line maintenance and the fermentation of the anti-involution logic. The spot market also slightly followed the increase. The downstream's willingness to accept the price was low, but the procurement intention improved marginally. The rising price of lithium carbonate drove the profit repair of the upstream resource end and salt factories, but the price performance was suppressed by the arbitrage space. However, under the current sentiment, lithium carbonate is expected to follow the upward trend [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The lithium carbonate futures opened higher. The main contract reached a maximum of 74,480 and closed at 72,880. The total position increased by 40,000 hands to 718,000 hands. The spot price of electric carbon rose by 1,100 to 69,100. The downstream's acceptance of the price was low, but the procurement intention improved. The price of Australian ore rose by 10 US dollars/ton to 767.5 US dollars/ton, and the price of lithium mica rose by 45 to 1,590 yuan/ton. The production profit of salt factories using purchased lithium spodumene expanded to 833 yuan/ton, and the production loss of salt factories using purchased lithium mica narrowed to 5,969 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Industry News - Argentina's CAMMESA's first-round battery energy storage system tender received 27 projects from 15 companies, totaling 1.3 GW of bidding plans, far exceeding the 500 MW tender capacity. The winning results are expected to be announced in August 2025, and the contracts will be signed in September [14]. - On the morning of July 17, Jiangsu Weili Energy Technology Co., Ltd. launched a project with a total investment of 500 million yuan to process 30,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate battery cathode materials per year. The first phase is expected to be put into production by the end of 2025, with an annual revenue of 550 million yuan and more than 200 new jobs [15].