Core Viewpoint - Ganfeng Lithium's stock price increased by 3.33% to HKD 55.80 following the announcement of a significant development in its joint project with Lithium Argentina, marking a key milestone in the project [1] Company Summary - Ganfeng Lithium's stock price rose to HKD 55.80 with a trading volume of HKD 247 million [1] - The company announced a joint development project with Lithium Argentina, which has received the Environmental Impact Assessment Report (DIA) from the mining and energy secretariat of Salta Province, Argentina [1] - The project aims to submit an application for large investment incentives to the Argentine government in the first half of 2026, seeking local government support and fiscal incentives [1] - The project is designed to have an annual production capacity of approximately 150,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE), with a planned lifespan of 30 years and divided into three phases [1]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley upgraded Ganfeng Lithium's A-share rating to Neutral with a target price of 65 yuan, indicating a potential decline of 6.3% from the previous rating of Underweight [1] - Morgan Stanley upgraded Tianqi Lithium's A-share rating to Neutral with a target price of 54 yuan, indicating a potential decline of 6.1% from the previous rating of Underweight [1] Group 2 - Ganfeng Lithium (01772.HK) and Lithium Argentina made significant progress in their joint development project [1] - Tianqi Lithium (002466) is expected to see performance recovery driven by the release of new production capacity [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term, but whether they can continue to rise and start the next wave of the market remains to be observed [12]. - The US dollar is expected to weaken in the short - term [16]. - For stock indices, a balanced long - position allocation is recommended [20]. - US stock index futures should be treated with a bullish mindset [26]. - The bond market is expected to be in a state of oscillation, and short - term trading is not recommended to chase long positions [29]. - For various commodities, different investment suggestions are given according to their respective fundamentals, such as short - term bullish or bearish outlooks, and strategies like long or short positions at appropriate times [32][35][39] etc. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed Governor Milan believes a 50 - basis - point rate cut in December is appropriate, and at least a 25 - basis - point cut is needed. Gold prices rose nearly 3% due to expectations of the Fed's potential balance - sheet expansion and Trump's proposed fiscal expansion. Buying funds entered the market around $4000. Gold is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term, but the sustainability of the upward trend needs further observation [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Switzerland is close to reaching a deal with the US to reduce its export tariff to 15%. Trump supports the Senate's agreement to end the government shutdown. The US dollar index is expected to weaken in the short - term due to the relief of market tightness and the recovery of risk appetite [13][14][16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The A - share market was strong driven by consumer stocks. New policies on consumption have been introduced this year, but the sustainability of the traditional consumer stocks' rally remains to be seen. A balanced long - position allocation for stock indices is recommended [17][19][20]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Some Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts. Trump is trying to reduce tariffs on Switzerland and India. The Senate passed a temporary appropriation bill. The US stock index futures should be treated with a bullish mindset [21][23][25][26]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net injection of funds. Inflation data has a limited negative impact on the bond market. The bond market is in a state of oscillation, and short - term trading is not recommended to chase long positions [27][28][29]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Last week, domestic soybean oil mills' soybean inventory increased, while soybean meal inventory decreased. Brazilian soybean sowing progress is slower than last year. Soybean meal prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the USDA's monthly supply - demand report and China's soybean procurement and South American weather [30][32]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The Simandou Iron Ore project is about to be put into production. Steel prices are oscillating slightly upward, but there is no obvious trend. The valuation of steel prices is not high, but there is still fundamental pressure. Steel prices are expected to remain weakly oscillating in the short - term [33][34][35]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Pakistan's sugar mills will start crushing on November 15. The 25/26 sugar - crushing season in Guangxi is expected to start on November 15, postponed by 7 days. India allows 150,000 tons of sugar exports in the 25/26 season. Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to oscillate in the short - term, and a long - short spread strategy for the 1 - 5 contracts can be considered [36][38][39]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - On November 10, the import market of steam coal had a dull trading performance. Coal prices have risen sharply since November, supported by seasonal demand. However, there is also regulatory pressure above 800 yuan. Attention should be paid to the risk of price corrections [40][41]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Grange's iron ore production and sales increased in the third quarter. Iron ore prices are in a weak oscillation. The supply pressure is moderately high, and the inventory is expected to accumulate seasonally in November - December. The valuation space is difficult to open in the short - term [42]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal price in the East China market is running strongly. The supply is in a tight - balance state, and the fourth round of coke price increases is underway. The coking coal market is expected to be difficult to fall in the short - term, but the decline in hot - metal production and high downstream inventory may put pressure on the market [43][44]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - MPOB data shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased in October. The oil market rebounded slightly due to the release of the data. Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate after a small - scale rebound in November. Attention should be paid to the weather from December to early next year. Opportunities for long positions in the 05 contract and 1 - 5 spread short - positions can be considered [45][46][47]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Corn starch enterprises in different regions have different levels of theoretical profits. Corn prices are rising, and starch prices are stable. Enterprises are expected to maintain profitability, and the开机 rate is expected to increase. A band - trading strategy is recommended [48]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn prices are strong. Farmers' willingness to sell is weak, and the supply - demand situation is slightly tight. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term and rebound in the long - term. Caution is needed for far - month contracts [49]. 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The purchase price of red dates in the production area has been slightly reduced. The futures price of the main contract has fallen. It is recommended to wait and see until the harvesting is completed and pay attention to the price negotiation and purchase progress in the production area [50][51]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The government issued a guidance on promoting new - energy consumption and regulation. The polysilicon market is entering a critical point of policy - and fundamental - based games. If the progress of platform companies fails to meet expectations, the spot price may fall. A short - position strategy at high prices can be considered [52][53][54]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - A shareholder of Hesheng Silicon Industry plans to reduce its shareholding. With the arrival of the dry season, the production in Yunnan and Sichuan has decreased. A long - position strategy at low prices can be considered, but profit - taking at high prices is necessary [55][56]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead is at a discount, and the inventory of lead ingots is increasing. The supply and demand of lead are expected to remain strong in the short - term. The industry can consider short - position hedging at high prices [57][58]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Domestic zinc concentrate production decreased in November. The LME zinc is at a premium, and the domestic inventory has slightly increased. The industry can consider short - position hedging at medium - term highs, and a long - short spread strategy can be considered [59][60][61]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Sumitomo's nickel - bean production increased. The raw - material price is expected to remain stable and strong. The inventory accumulation of refined nickel is slowing down. Attention can be paid to long - position opportunities after the inventory accumulation inflection point [62][63]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Ganfeng Lithium's PPGS lithium - salt lake project obtained an environmental assessment report. The lithium - carbonate market is in a game between strong current reality and weak future expectations. It is expected to be strongly oscillating in the short - term, and a short - position strategy at high prices can be considered in the medium - term [64][65][66]. 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - A Congolese mine suspended operations due to a leakage incident. A company applied for a US seabed - mining license. The valuation of an Ecuadorian copper mine is $4.6 billion. Copper prices are expected to rise in the short - term, and a long - position strategy can be considered, but large - scale increases are limited [67][68][70]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Two Indian state - owned enterprises bought 5 million barrels of oil from the US and the Middle East. Oil prices are oscillating, and the recovery of market risk appetite provides some support [70][71]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The pulp market is relatively strong recently, but the risk of further upward movement has increased as European pulp can now be registered as warehouse receipts [73]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic - soda market in Shandong is stable. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is moderate. The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term [74][75][76]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC powder market price is weakly sorted. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is limited. A short - position strategy at rebounds for near - month contracts and a long - position strategy for far - month contracts after price over - decline can be considered [77][78]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The capacity - utilization rate of compound fertilizers is stable. Urea prices rebounded due to new export - quota policies and replenishment demand. Urea prices are expected to oscillate within a certain range [79][80][81]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - A new styrene device of Guoen was put into operation. The fundamental upward drive of pure benzene and styrene is limited. A wait - and - see attitude is recommended [82][83][84]. 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt) - Asphalt refinery inventory increased, while social inventory decreased. The asphalt market is weakly oscillating, and it is waiting for the winter - storage policy [85][86][87]. 3.2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Soda - ash manufacturers' inventory decreased slightly. Soda - ash prices rose due to cost support and production suspension of some enterprises. In the short - term, the downward space of soda - ash prices depends on coal - price fluctuations and new - capacity commissioning. A bearish view is recommended in the medium - term [88]. 3.2.26 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market decreased. The glass market is bearish due to weak production and sales after price increases last week. It is recommended to wait and see [89][90]. 3.2.27 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Maersk has no intention to return to the Red Sea in the short - term. The SCFIS (Europe route) index increased. The container - freight - rate market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the spot price and booking situation [91][92].

Market Overview - The A-share market is expected to experience a balanced market style, with the Shanghai Composite Index likely consolidating around the 4000-point level [1][9]. - The long-term positive trend of the A-share market remains unchanged, with attention on themes such as anti-involution and dividends during sector rotations [9]. Economic Policies - The State Council has issued measures to promote private investment, including 13 targeted policy initiatives aimed at encouraging private capital participation in key sectors like railways and nuclear power [5]. - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have released guidelines to enhance the consumption and regulation of renewable energy, aiming for a multi-layered system by 2030 [6]. Corporate Developments - Ganfeng Lithium has made significant progress in developing the PPGS lithium salt lake project in collaboration with LAR [9]. - A major asset sale by Wingtech Technology has been completed, although some payments remain outstanding [9]. - Shandong Gold's subsidiary is required to pay back taxes amounting to 738 million yuan, which is expected to impact the company's net profit for 2025 by 230 million yuan [8]. Stock Market Movements - The U.S. stock market saw significant gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.81%, the Nasdaq by 2.27%, and the S&P 500 by 1.54% [4]. - Notable technology stocks performed well, with Nvidia increasing by 5.8% and Google by 3.9% [4]. Commodity Prices - International oil prices have risen, with WTI crude oil increasing by 0.64% to $60.13 per barrel and Brent crude by 0.68% to $64.06 per barrel [4]. - Gold prices surged, with COMEX gold futures for November delivery rising by 2.81% to $4111.80 per ounce [4].

Core Viewpoint - Ganfeng Lithium has made significant progress in the development of the PPGS lithium salt lake project in Argentina, receiving an environmental impact assessment report, which is a key milestone for the project [1] Group 1: Project Development - The PPGS lithium salt lake project is set to submit a large-scale investment application to the Argentine government in the first half of 2026 to gain local government support and fiscal incentives [1] - The integrated PPGS lithium salt lake project has approximately 15.07 million tons of LCE proven and controlled resources, making it one of the largest undeveloped lithium brine resources [1] - The project is designed for an annual production capacity of about 150,000 tons of LCE, with a lifespan of 30 years, and will be developed in three phases [3] Group 2: Financial Support and Ownership Structure - Ganfeng International and LAR hold 67% and 33% of Millennial Lithium Corp, respectively, and jointly own the PPGS lithium salt lake project [2] - Ganfeng Lithium is providing LAR with financial support of up to $130 million over six years, secured by LAR's equity in Millennial, to fund the development of the PPGS project [2] Group 3: Operational Efficiency and Technology - The project will utilize Ganfeng Lithium's direct lithium extraction process and solar evaporation pond technology to enhance production efficiency, reduce freshwater consumption, and improve product consistency and quality [3] - The project retains flexibility in product pathways, allowing customization of final lithium products based on market conditions and specifications [3] Group 4: Financial Performance - Ganfeng Lithium reported a revenue of 6.249 billion yuan for Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 44.10%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 557 million yuan, up 364.02% year-on-year [3] - For the first three quarters, the company achieved a revenue of 14.625 billion yuan, a 5.02% increase year-on-year, and turned a profit with a net profit of 25.52 million yuan [3] - The significant growth in Q3 performance was attributed to increased fair value gains from financial assets and profits from the disposal of energy storage stations and joint ventures, despite operational cash flow being pressured by falling lithium prices [3]

前言 于业绩底部抬升且迎来利好的关键节点。 财联社倾力打造王牌栏目《风口研报》，替您"扒一扒"市场含金量超高的研报、调研信息。以机构视 角，追踪研报和调研纪要细节里的"超预期"、"拐点"、"事件催化"和"价值洼地"。 ①锂价完成筑底后迎来回升，这家公司拥有锂资源量近400万吨LCE、在行业低谷期仍能保持市场份额，后续 锂盐产能扩张空间可期；②行业"龙一"即将并购"龙二"，这家公司加速优化竞争格局+提升定价能力，目前处 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 11 月 10 日 碳酸锂日报 专业研究·创造价值 碳酸锂 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 碳酸锂上涨 摘要 【期货市场】主力合约仍为 LC2601.GFE。主力合约结算价 85360.00 元/吨，较前日上涨 4100.00 元/吨（+5.05%），近 10 个交 易日整体呈现上升走势。 【现货市场】碳酸锂现货价格为 80770.00 元/吨，较前日上涨 0.54%，近 10 个交易日整体呈现上升走势。 【基差分析】当前基差为-4590.00 点，负基差（现货贴水），较前 日走弱 3670.00 点，近 10 ...

Group 1: A-share Market Performance - The A-share market saw a general decline in major indices, with the ChiNext index experiencing the largest drop [1][3] - Despite the overall downturn, the lithium mining and duty-free concept sectors surged, becoming the main drivers of the market in the morning session [1][4] Group 2: Sector Performance - In terms of industry sectors, beauty care, retail, food and beverage, and agriculture showed significant gains, while communication, electronics, and power equipment sectors lagged [4] - The lithium mining sector saw a notable increase, with a mid-session rise exceeding 2%, and several stocks, including Fangyuan Co. and Weiling Co., hitting the daily limit [4][6] Group 3: Duty-Free Concept Sector - The duty-free concept sector also experienced substantial growth, with an overall increase of over 2%, led by major stocks like China Duty Free Group hitting the daily limit [6] - Recent policy changes from the Ministry of Finance and other departments aim to enhance the duty-free store framework, promoting domestic consumption and expanding product categories [8][9] Group 4: Hong Kong Market Performance - The Hong Kong market performed well, with the Hang Seng Index fluctuating above 26,300 points [2][10] - Stocks such as Pop Mart, Mengniu Dairy, and BYD saw significant gains, while companies like SMIC and Lenovo faced declines [11] Group 5: Specific Company Developments - The stock "Hushang Ayi" in Hong Kong surged over 15% following the announcement of an H-share incentive plan aimed at long-term sustainable development and talent retention [10][12] - The H-share incentive plan allows for a maximum of 5% of the company's total shares to be granted as restricted stock to eligible participants over a ten-year period [12][13]

Market Overview - A-shares market indices showed an overall decline, with the ChiNext index experiencing the largest drop [1][4] - In contrast, the Hong Kong stock market performed well, with the Hang Seng Index fluctuating above 26,300 points [2][12] Conceptual Sector Performance - Two major concept sectors in the A-shares market, lithium mining and duty-free, saw significant gains, with lithium mining sector rising over 2% [5][7] - Notable stocks in the lithium mining sector included Fangyuan Co., Weiling Co., and Dazhong Mining, which all hit the daily limit [5] Lithium Market Dynamics - Domestic lithium carbonate futures contracts surged, with the main contract rising over 6% to exceed 86,000 yuan per ton [7] - The cumulative increase in lithium carbonate futures for the fourth quarter of this year approached 20% [7] Duty-Free Sector Developments - The duty-free concept sector also experienced a substantial increase, with the leading stock China Duty Free Group hitting the daily limit [7] - Recent policy changes announced by the Ministry of Finance and other departments aim to enhance the duty-free store policy to boost consumption and attract foreign spending [9][10] Policy Changes for Duty-Free Stores - The new policy includes optimizing tax management for domestic goods, expanding the range of products sold in duty-free stores, and easing approval processes for establishing new stores [10] - The policy aims to improve the shopping experience for travelers by allowing online reservations and pick-up services at duty-free stores [10] Hong Kong Stock Highlights - The stock "Hushang Ayi" in Hong Kong saw a significant rise of over 15% following the announcement of an H-share incentive plan [11][14] - The incentive plan aims to attract and retain talent, aligning the interests of participants with those of shareholders [14][15] Incentive Plan Details - The H-share incentive plan will utilize existing H-shares as the source for restricted stock awards, with a cap of 5% of the total shares [15][16] - The plan's reward period is set for ten years, with provisions for unvested awards to continue until they vest [16]

Summary of Cangge Mining Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Cangge Mining - **Key Business Segments**: Potassium chloride, lithium carbonate, and copper mining Industry Insights - **Potassium Chloride**: - Stable business with an expected annual production of 1 million tons - Production costs are projected to decrease to 950-1,000 RMB/ton due to process optimization and centralized procurement - Benefiting from rising potassium fertilizer prices, enhancing profitability [2][16] - **Lithium Carbonate**: - Production and sales targets adjusted to 8,510 tons due to third-quarter maintenance shutdown - Anticipated one-time cost increases in Q4 [2][9] - The first phase of the Maniqiao Salt Lake lithium project is progressing smoothly, with expected production costs around 30,000 RMB/ton [2][8] - **Copper Mining**: - Q3 copper production reached 142,500 tons, with sales of 142,400 tons, contributing 1.95 billion RMB in investment income, a 43.09% year-on-year increase [3] Financial Performance - **Revenue and Profit**: - For the first three quarters of 2025, revenue was 2.401 billion RMB, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.75 billion RMB, a 47% increase year-on-year [3] Project Developments - **Laos Potash Project**: - Actively advancing with proven reserves of 984 million tons, potentially reaching 2.1 billion tons - Initial planned capacity of 2 million tons, with long-term expansion potential to 3-4 million tons [2][17][18] - **Mamiqiao Project**: - Expected to be completed in 2026, with the company holding priority acquisition rights [4][13] - **Chaharhan Salt Lake**: - Mining license renewal completed, with additional rights for lithium and boron mining - Adjusted potassium chloride design capacity to 1.2 million tons, with successful resumption of production [4][5] Cost Management - **Cost Control**: - Copper mining achieved a net profit of 45,000 RMB per ton, reflecting effective cost management [15] - Overall production costs are expected to stabilize around 40,000 RMB per ton in 2026 [10] Dividend Policy - **Dividend Strategy**: - Minimum dividend payout of 40%, with plans to increase dividends if there are no significant capital expenditures [4][24] Risks and Challenges - **Impact of Shutdowns**: - The shutdown in Q3 will affect annual lithium carbonate business performance, with adjustments reflected in the quarterly report [9] - **Electricity Costs**: - Higher electricity costs in Tibet compared to Qinghai, but resource advantages in Maniqiao Salt Lake help mitigate overall costs [8] Future Outlook - **Capital Expenditure**: - Limited capital expenditure pressure outside the Laos project, with profits from Qinghai potassium chloride business expected to cover expenses [23] - **Competitive Landscape**: - Ongoing monitoring of Zijin Mining's lithium development and maintaining cost control to address competitive challenges [25]