Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term market trend is bullish, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 5100 on the daily K - line of V2509 [3]. - In July, domestic PVC plants are undergoing centralized maintenance, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to decline. Although some plants are planned to be put into production, the exit of backward production capacity driven by policies is expected to relieve supply pressure [3]. - It is the off - season for domestic downstream demand, and the demand in the Indian market is suppressed by the rainy season. The anti - dumping policy may be implemented in early July [3]. - The impact of power rationing in Inner Mongolia has weakened, and some calcium carbide plants have resumed production. The lifting of the export restriction on ethane to China by the US may drive down the cost of the ethylene - based method in the future [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 5040 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 77 yuan/ton. The trading volume is 1242330 lots, an increase of 267395 lots, and the open interest is 932779 lots, a decrease of 34594 lots [3]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 23605 lots, an increase of 6984 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4980 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4822.31 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [3]. - In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4945 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4860 yuan/ton, up 18.75 yuan/ton [3]. - The CIF price of PVC in China is 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged, and the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 660 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Northwest Europe is 750 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. - The basis of PVC is - 180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it is 2630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.67 yuan/ton; in the Northwest, it is 2388 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is 50.5 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East is 524 US dollars/ton, unchanged, and in Southeast Asia is 564 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. - The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East is 184 US dollars/ton, an increase of 8 US dollars/ton, and in Southeast Asia is 188 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 77.44%, a decrease of 0.65 percentage points. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 80.8%, a decrease of 0.17 percentage points, and the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 68.54%, a decrease of 1.92 percentage points [3]. - The total social inventory of PVC is 37.31 tons, an increase of 1.14 tons. The inventory in East China is 33.03 tons, an increase of 1.1 tons, and the inventory in South China is 4.28 tons, an increase of 0.04 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index is 93.72, a decrease of 0.14. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 23183.61 million square meters, an increase of 5347.77 million square meters [3]. - The cumulative value of real estate construction area is 625019.54 million square meters, an increase of 4704.49 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment is 19154.81 billion yuan, an increase of 4281.68 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 14.54%, an increase of 0.83 percentage points, and the 40 - day historical volatility is 15.28%, a decrease of 1.36 percentage points [3]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.11%, a decrease of 0.06 percentage points, and the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 19.1%, a decrease of 0.07 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - On July 10, the spot exchange price of PVCSG5 in East China increased by 60 - 70 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, with the price ranging from 4830 to 4920 yuan/ton [3]. - From June 28 to July 4, the capacity utilization rate of PVC in China was 77.44%, a decrease of 0.65% compared with the previous period [3]. - As of July 3, the new sample statistics of Longzhong's social inventory increased by 2.89% month - on - month to 59.18 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 37.66% [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The short - term oil price is expected to remain firm and maintain a volatile pattern, but it is bearish in the medium term. The asphalt price may remain relatively low, the liquefied gas price is expected to be weak, the natural gas price in the US is expected to rise while that in Europe is under pressure. For various chemical products, most are expected to show a pattern of shock, with some being bearish or bullish in the short - term [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]. - For forest products and paper products, the market is generally in a state of weak supply and demand, with prices showing different trends of stability, decline or shock [38][39][40][41][42]. - For rubber products, the market is affected by multiple factors, and different types of rubber have different investment suggestions, mainly focusing on waiting and seeing [44][45][46][47][48]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2508 contract settled at $68.33, up $0.40/barrel, a 0.59% increase; Brent2509 contract settled at $70.15, up $0.57/barrel, an 0.82% increase. SC2508 contract rose 8.6 to 509.9 yuan/barrel, and 6.4 to 516.3 yuan/barrel at night [1]. - **Related News**: Trump expanded the global trade war, announcing a 50% tariff on imported copper and threatening semiconductor and pharmaceutical tariffs. Japan and South Korea will negotiate with the US to ease the impact of tariff hikes. EIA raised the global oil production growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 [1][2]. - **Logic Analysis**: The near - term spread of crude oil is strong, Saudi Arabia raised the official price, and the refining profit has recovered. The oil price is expected to be volatile in the short - term and bearish in the medium - term [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term range - bound thinking, medium - term bearish; gasoline and diesel cracking spreads are stable; wait and see for options [2]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2509 closed at 3629 points (+1.11%) at night, BU2512 closed at 3439 points (+1.48%) at night. The spot price in Shandong was 3580 - 4070 yuan/ton, 3670 - 3850 yuan/ton in East China, and 3610 - 3730 yuan/ton in South China [3]. - **Related News**: The mainstream transaction price in Shandong, East China, and South China remained stable. Rainy season affected demand, and the supply was sufficient [3][4]. - **Logic Analysis**: The cost side is volatile. The supply - demand is weak in the near - term, and the inventory is low year - on - year. The supply elasticity of asphalt from local refineries has increased. The asphalt price is expected to be in a narrow - range shock, and the cracking spread is expected to remain high [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level shock; the asphalt - crude oil spread is stable; wait and see for options [5]. Liquefied Gas - **Market Review**: PG2508 closed at 4170 (-0.33%) at night, PG2509 closed at 4073 (-0.12%) at night. The spot price in South China, East China, and Shandong showed different trends [5]. - **Related News**: The price in South China declined, that in Shandong was stable with partial small drops, and that in East China generally declined [5][6]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply decreased, the demand was weak in both the combustion and chemical fields, and the inventory decreased. The fundamentals of liquefied gas are loose, and the price is expected to be weak [6][7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak operation [7]. Natural Gas - **Logic Analysis**: US natural gas production decreased, demand was strong, and LNG exports increased, so the price is expected to rise. European natural gas prices fell due to supply - demand and geopolitical factors [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on HH on dips; shock for TTF [8]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 closed at 2992 (+0.84%) at night, LU09 closed at 3709 (+1.28%) at night. The Singapore paper - cargo market showed different spreads [8]. - **Related News**: India HPCL offered HSFO, there were attacks in the Red Sea, a US refinery had problems, and there were transactions in the Singapore spot window [9]. - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur spot discounts fell, supply may increase but is affected by geopolitical factors, and demand has seasonal support. Low - sulfur supply increased and demand had no specific driver [9][10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see; pay attention to the digestion rhythm of high - sulfur spot in the near - term and consider going long on FU91 positive spreads on dips [10]. PX - **Market Review**: PX2509 closed at 6696 (+0.18%) during the day and 6718 (+0.33%) at night. The spot price rose, and PXN decreased [11]. - **Related News**: A refinery's crude distillation unit caught fire, and the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [11]. - **Logic Analysis**: The social inventory of PX is low, supply is tight, and Asian PX operating rates declined. Downstream demand will increase, and PX is expected to follow the cost side in the short - term [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Shock consolidation; wait and see for arbitrage and options [11]. PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 closed at 4710 (0%) during the day and 4720 (+0.21%) at night. The spot price and basis were reported [11][12]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, and a PTA device in South China returned to normal operation [12]. - **Logic Analysis**: The basis of PTA declined, some devices were under maintenance or had load changes, downstream demand was weak, and inventory accumulation was expected [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Shock consolidation; wait and see for arbitrage and options [13]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2509 closed at 4267 (-0.28%) during the day and 4270 (+0.07%) at night. The spot price and basis were reported [13]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, and some ethylene glycol devices restarted [14]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of some domestic and foreign devices increased, inventory accumulation is expected in August - September, downstream demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weak in the short - term [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak shock; wait and see for arbitrage and options [15]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2508 closed at 6518 (0%) during the day and 6528 (+0.15%) at night. The spot price in different regions was stable [15][16]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [16]. - **Logic Analysis**: Some short - fiber devices reduced production or were under maintenance, the processing margin expanded, and the processing fee is expected to be strongly supported [16][17]. - **Trading Strategy**: Not clearly mentioned in the text, but similar to other products, wait - and - see for arbitrage and options can be inferred [17]. PR (Bottle Chip) - **Market Review**: PR2509 closed at 5866 (-0.10%) during the day and 5876 (+0.17%) at night. The spot market trading was average [17]. - **Related News**: The export quotation of polyester bottle chips was partially lowered [17]. - **Logic Analysis**: The processing fee of bottle chips strengthened, some devices reduced production or stopped, and the price is expected to follow the raw material side in a shock [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: Shock consolidation; wait and see for arbitrage and options [18]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Review**: BZ2503 closed at 5931 during the day and 5989 (+0.98%) at night. EB2508 closed at 7276 (-0.83%) during the day and 7297 (+0.29%) at night. The spot price of pure benzene decreased, and that of styrene had different ranges [20]. - **Related News**: The inventory of styrene and pure benzene in ports increased, a new styrene device was planned to be tested, and a refinery's device had problems [20]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of pure benzene is abundant, and demand is expected to increase. The supply of styrene will increase, demand is weak, and inventory accumulates. The price of styrene is under pressure [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: Shock consolidation; long pure benzene and short styrene for arbitrage; wait and see for options [22]. Plastic and PP - **Market Review**: The price of LLDPE in most regions declined, and the price of PP in different regions also showed a downward trend [23]. - **Related News**: The maintenance ratio of PE remained unchanged, and that of PP increased slightly [23]. - **Logic Analysis**: There is large capacity - putting pressure in the third quarter, the terminal demand is weak, and the strategy is to short on rallies [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Bearish in the short - and medium - term; wait and see for arbitrage and options [24]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The PVC spot price was in a narrow - range adjustment, and the caustic soda spot price in Shandong and Jiangsu increased [24][25]. - **Related News**: The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was stable, and the price of caustic soda in Jinling had different changes [26]. - **Logic Analysis**: PVC has new capacity - putting pressure, demand is weak, and exports face risks, so the price is under pressure. Caustic soda has a short - term bullish expectation but faces capacity - putting pressure in July - August [26][27]. - **Trading Strategy**: Caustic soda: short - term shock bullish; PVC: short on rallies; wait and see for arbitrage and options [28][29]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The futures price of soda ash decreased, and the spot price was in a weak shock [29]. - **Related News**: The inventory of soda ash increased, the photovoltaic industry had an impact, and the market was generally weak [29][30]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of soda ash reached the extreme and then declined, demand was weak, inventory accumulated, and the price is expected to be weak but not likely to fall sharply [30][31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak fundamentals, price is weak but not likely to fall sharply; wait and see for arbitrage; sell call options [31]. Glass - **Market Review**: The futures price of glass decreased in a shock, and the spot price in different regions showed different trends [31][32]. - **Related News**: The inventory of soda ash increased, and the sales in different regions of glass were different [31][32]. - **Logic Analysis**: The glass market is in a shock decline, the cost of soda ash decreases, demand has no improvement, and the price is expected to be weak but not likely to fall sharply [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Macro - logic continues, glass is in a weak shock; wait and see for arbitrage; sell call options [33]. Methanol - **Market Review**: The futures price of methanol declined, and the spot price in different regions showed different levels [33][34]. - **Related News**: The signing volume of methanol in Northwest China decreased [34]. - **Logic Analysis**: The international supply of methanol increases, domestic supply is loose, demand is stable, and the price is expected to be weak in the short - term [34][35]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak shock; wait and see for arbitrage; sell call options [36]. Urea - **Market Review**: The futures price of urea increased, and the spot price in different regions increased slightly [36]. - **Related News**: An Indian urea tender had results [36]. - **Logic Analysis**: The production of urea decreased slightly, demand is weak in the domestic market, and the inventory is still high. The Indian tender price is high, which may boost the market in the short - term, but be cautious about chasing high [36][37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term bullish; wait and see for arbitrage; sell call options on rebounds [38]. Log - **Related News**: The price of some logs in Jiangsu decreased, the shipping volume from New Zealand to China changed, and the freight rate had an upward and downward trend [38]. - **Logic Analysis**: The downstream demand is still weak, and the price support and trading volume need to be considered. The difference in ruler size supports the price, and future交割 details need to be concerned [39]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for the near - month contract; pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread; wait and see for options [40]. Double - Coated Paper - **Related News**: The trading atmosphere of double - coated paper was average, the price was stable, and the supply and demand were both weak [40]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply is stable, demand is limited, and the cost of wood pulp decreases, which eases the cost pressure on paper mills [40]. Corrugated Paper - **Related News**: The price of corrugated and box - board paper was generally stable with some weakness, the price of waste yellow - board paper increased, and the supply and demand of raw materials had different situations [41]. - **Logic Analysis**: The corrugated paper market is in a weak pattern, supply is sufficient, demand is weak, and the profit is expected to be slightly repaired [41]. Pulp - **Market Review**: The futures price of pulp was in a weak shock, and the spot price of different types of pulp had different trends [42]. - **Related News**: A large - scale investment project in the pulp and paper industry was planned [43]. - **Logic Analysis**: The economic indicators in different regions are favorable, but the US dollar index is unfavorable to the pulp price [43]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for the SP09 contract; hold the 2*SP2509 - NR2509 spread and raise the stop - loss [44]. Natural Rubber and 20 - Numbered Rubber - **Market Review**: The price of RU, NR, and BR increased, and the spot price of different types of rubber showed different levels [44][45][47]. - **Related News**: The US tire import volume increased in the first five months of 2025 [45][48]. - **Logic Analysis**: The export of Chinese tires and the US auto order data are favorable to the RU price [46]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for the RU09 and NR09 contracts; hold the RU2509 - NR2509 spread and raise the stop - loss; wait and see for options [46]. Butadiene Rubber - **Market Review**: The price of BR increased, and the spot price in different regions had different levels [47]. - **Related News**: The US tire import volume increased in the first five months of 2025 [48]. - **Logic Analysis**: The decline in crude oil prices is unfavorable to the BR - RU spread, and the US rubber and plastic product import data is slightly favorable to the BR price [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for the BR09 contract; consider the BR2509 - NR2509 spread and set a stop - loss; wait and see for the BR2509 call option [48][49].

Tariff Overview - As of May, the average tariff rate in the U.S. is 7.4%, with specific rates of 38.6% on China, 9.3% on Japan, and 6.2% on the UK[2] - The new tariffs on 14 countries will take effect on August 1, with an expected average tariff rate of 29%, only 4 percentage points lower than the initial rate of 33% set on April 2[5][10] Trade Negotiations - U.S.-Japan trade talks are at an impasse, particularly over auto tariffs, with Japan seeking to eliminate a 25% tariff[3] - The U.S. and Mexico are nearing an agreement to eliminate steel and aluminum tariffs, while negotiations with Canada are ongoing with a deadline set for July 21[3] Tariff Strategy - Trump is shifting to a "discriminatory tariff" framework, potentially grouping countries for tariff adjustments based on trade deficits and negotiation outcomes[2][4] - Approximately 100 countries with small trade surpluses with the U.S. may face a 10% tariff, while 18 countries could see tariffs ranging from 20% to 70% depending on negotiations[4] Economic Impact - The tariffs are expected to have significant effects on the U.S. economy, with concerns about rising unemployment rates projected to reach 4.4-4.6%[5] - The structural slowdown in the U.S. economy remains a concern despite recent positive non-farm payroll data[5] Risk Factors - Potential escalation of geopolitical conflicts could disrupt global economic stability and inflation control efforts[12] - A sharper-than-expected slowdown in the U.S. economy and a more hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve could impact future monetary policy[12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][18][22] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a year-on-year net profit growth of 48.19% to 54.83% in the first half of 2025, with projected net profit ranging from 49.1 million to 51.3 million yuan [2][7] - The growth is driven by the rapid development of advanced electronic materials and battery materials, benefiting from global AI computing power construction, high-frequency communication, and the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors [2][3] - The company has successfully expanded its market share in the synthetic resin industry through new applications and fields, with phenolic resin capacity reaching approximately 650,000 tons, ranking among the world's top [3][16] - The Daqing production base is expected to achieve a reduction in losses in the first half of 2025, with increasing capacity utilization and a focus on efficient biomass utilization [17] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit of 789 million yuan in 2023, with a growth of 12.23% year-on-year, and expects revenues of 9.12 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.98% [8][20] - For 2024, the company anticipates revenues of 10.02 billion yuan, a 9.87% increase, and a net profit of 868 million yuan, a 9.94% increase [8][20] - The projected revenues for 2025 are 12.14 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.13 billion yuan, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [4][20] Market Position and Growth Drivers - The company is positioned as a leader in the synthetic resin sector, with a strong focus on high-frequency and high-speed PCB materials, which are essential for AI servers and data centers [11][18] - The new production lines for advanced electronic materials and battery materials are expected to ramp up production in the first half of 2025, contributing to revenue growth [2][11] - The company is actively developing new applications for its products, particularly in the silicon-carbon negative electrode materials market, which is expanding into the power battery sector [3][18] Valuation Metrics - The company is projected to have earnings per share (EPS) of 1.44 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 20.85 [4][20] - The expected revenues for 2025-2027 are 121.43 billion yuan, 136.98 billion yuan, and 155.35 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 11.29 billion yuan, 13.87 billion yuan, and 16.34 billion yuan [4][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the third quarter, PP and PE still face significant capacity expansion pressure, which eases in the fourth quarter. The expected standard - grade PE production in the second half of the year is only 500,000 tons, with reduced pressure compared to the first half. However, supply is not tightening as there was high - level maintenance in the first half, and there is an expectation of increased production from existing facilities in the second half. Terminal demand is weak year - on - year, and there are no strong factors to reverse this trend, so there is a lack of upward momentum. The strategy is mainly to sell short on rallies [3]. - In the short and medium term, a bearish view is taken on the single - side trading. For arbitrage and options, a wait - and - see approach is recommended [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Comprehensive Analysis**: Third - quarter PP and PE capacity expansion pressure is large, easing in the fourth quarter. PE standard - grade production pressure in the second half is reduced, but supply may increase due to expected higher operation rates of existing facilities. Terminal demand is weak, lacking upward drivers [3]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a bearish stance on single - side trading in the short and medium term; temporarily hold off on arbitrage and options trading [4]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - **Capacity Expansion**: For PE, the expected new capacity for the 2509 contract is 2.05 million tons, and 800,000 tons for the 2601 contract. For PP, the 2505 contract has an expected new capacity of 2.11 million tons, 2.2 million tons for the 2509 contract, and 950,000 tons for the 2601 contract. The total new PE capacity in 2025 is expected to be 5.43 million tons, and 5.26 million tons for PP [12][13][14]. - **Demand**: PE and PP demand is weak year - on - year. For PE, the current mainstream downstream industry operating rates range from 20% - 51%. For PP, the plastic - weaving industry is in the off - season with reduced new orders, and the BOPP film industry has a shorter order cycle [22]. 3.3 PE Weekly Data Tracking - **Inventory**: This week, PE inventory increased by 8,000 tons to 1.02 million tons. Two - oil inventory remained unchanged, while coal - chemical, trader, and port inventories increased by 2,000 tons, 5,000 tons, and 1,000 tons respectively [11]. - **Production and Operation**: The current PE operating rate is 76.88%, up 4.43 percentage points from the previous period. The annual production capacity affected by maintenance is 6.97 million tons, and the maintenance loss this week is 108,500 tons, a decrease of 16,300 tons from the previous period [65]. - **Price and Spread**: The report provides detailed price data for PE raw materials, products, and various spreads, including changes in oil - based PE profit, CTO profit, and import profit [24]. - **Import and Export**: This week, the PE import market showed "reduced volume and stable prices." Supply was tightened due to some Middle - East plant failures, and the Chinese market price being low globally reduced foreign suppliers' willingness to quote. Import arrivals may continue to decline from July to August [81]. - **Demand**: PE downstream industry operating rates vary. Agricultural film operating rate increased by 3 percentage points to 20%, while pipe operating rate decreased by 2 percentage points to 32% [22]. 3.4 PP Weekly Data Tracking - **Inventory**: This week, PP inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 514,000 tons. Two - oil inventory increased by 5,000 tons, while coal - chemical, trader, and port inventories decreased by 3,000 tons, 2,000 tons, and 1,000 tons respectively [11]. - **Production and Operation**: The current PP operating rate is 77.41%, down 1.85 percentage points from the previous week but up 3.51 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rates of oil - based, coal - based, and PDH - based PP are 73.26%, 92.36%, and 76.18% respectively [133]. - **Price and Spread**: The report presents comprehensive PP price data, including raw material prices, product prices, and various spreads such as non - standard spreads and basis spreads [100]. - **Import and Export**: PP import offers are scarce, with few transactions due to the large gap between offers and buyers' expectations. PP export arbitrage opportunities are limited, mainly due to weak overseas markets and new domestic capacity leading to a supply - abundant situation [145][147]. - **Demand**: PP downstream industries, such as plastic - weaving, are in the off - season with reduced new orders. The BOPP film industry has a shorter order cycle, and some small and medium - sized injection - molding enterprises are operating at low rates [22].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry analyzed [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the focus on "supply-side optimization" and "anti-involution" competition, with potential policy implementations expected in the second half of the year [3][8]. - Key industries identified for "anti-involution" include those with high inventory, high CAPEX, low capacity utilization, and low price levels, particularly in sectors such as chemicals, non-ferrous metals, coal, steel, and various manufacturing and consumer goods [3][11][13]. - The report outlines five perspectives for identifying potential beneficiaries of the "anti-involution" policies, including state-owned enterprise (SOE) share, industry concentration, tax revenue impact, labor intensity, and price elasticity post-capacity reduction [5][6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Policy Focus - The report highlights that the Central Financial Committee meeting on July 1 emphasized supply-side optimization and "anti-involution" competition, referencing past supply-side reforms from 2015-2016 as a model for future policy actions [3][8]. Key Industry Characteristics - Industries with high inventory, high CAPEX, low capacity utilization, and low price levels are targeted for policy intervention. These include: - Cyclical industries: Chemicals (chemical products, rubber, non-metallic materials), non-ferrous metals (energy metals), coal, and steel (common steel, steel raw materials) [3][11]. - Manufacturing: Electric new (motors, grid equipment, batteries, photovoltaics), machinery (automation equipment), automotive (passenger vehicles), military electronics, and construction [3][11]. - Consumer goods: Home appliances (appliance components), food and beverage (food processing, liquor, snacks) [3][11]. Five Perspectives for Industry Selection - **State-Owned Enterprise (SOE) Share**: Industries with higher SOE shares are expected to have stronger policy execution efficiency, including coal, common steel, cement, glass, and consumer sectors like liquor [3][5]. - **Industry Concentration**: Higher concentration industries are more likely to achieve supply clearing through stronger pricing power and quicker policy response, particularly in energy metals, non-metallic materials, and consumer goods like liquor [3][5]. - **Tax Revenue Impact**: Industries with lower tax revenue contributions will have a smaller impact on local finances during capacity reduction, focusing on sectors like glass, energy metals, and common steel [3][5]. - **Labor Intensity**: Industries with lower labor intensity will have a reduced impact on employment during capacity reduction, including non-metallic materials, chemical products, and energy metals [3][5]. - **Price Elasticity Post-Capacity Reduction**: Industries with a strong correlation between asset turnover and gross margin are expected to see greater price and margin expansion post-capacity reduction, including glass, chemical products, and energy metals [3][5]. Potential Beneficiary Industries - The report identifies several industries as potential beneficiaries of the "anti-involution" policies based on the five perspectives, including: - Coal mining, common steel, precious metals, glass fiber, coke, energy metals, steel raw materials, cement, chemical products, non-metallic materials, and various manufacturing sectors [6][7].

Group 1 - Germany is planning to provide billions of euros in subsidies to energy-intensive industries as part of Chancellor Merz's commitment to enhance the competitiveness of German heavy industry, with an estimated investment of around €4 billion [1] - The number of German companies eligible for electricity price subsidies is set to increase from 350 to 2,200, aimed at reducing electricity costs for industrial enterprises [1][2] - The German government emphasizes that supporting industrial enterprises is crucial for maintaining employment amid weak economic growth [1][2] Group 2 - The subsidy plan will cover up to 50% of electricity costs for companies over the next three years, particularly benefiting the chemical, glass, and plastics industries [2] - The plan aligns with the new EU state aid framework, which allows member states to subsidize industrial electricity costs to aid decarbonization efforts [2] - There is ongoing debate regarding the electricity subsidy, with some factions arguing for broader relief measures that include households and smaller businesses [2][4] Group 3 - The expansion of the subsidy reflects Germany's increased support for its industrial sector, particularly in light of significant job losses in the past year [3] - The chemical industry, seen as a barometer for the economy, has shown improved business sentiment, with the business climate index rising significantly [3] - However, there are concerns that the subsidy may undermine incentives for long-term renewable energy contracts and could negatively impact small businesses [4] Group 4 - Germany has one of the highest electricity prices globally, with an average price of €0.38 per kWh in the first quarter of this year [5][6] - The current electricity tax structure places a heavier burden on households compared to industrial users, raising concerns about the government's commitment to reducing energy costs for the public [6] - The new spending plans may conflict with EU fiscal rules, as Germany's federal deficit is projected to increase significantly over the coming years [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Polypropylene is in a phase of oscillating downward, and the later price center is expected to decline. The contract is pp2509. The Middle - East conflict has led to significant cost fluctuations, but from a fundamental perspective, over - capacity has further intensified the supply - demand pressure. In 2025, new device installations will continue throughout the year, with a concentrated release in June and July, increasing production pressure. Meanwhile, the existing production load remains stable. Supply is higher than in previous years, while demand is only slightly improved [1]. - Polyethylene is also in an oscillating downward phase, and the later price center is expected to decline. The contract is 12509. The Middle - East conflict has caused cost fluctuations, but fundamentally, the supply - demand situation remains weak due to over - capacity. In 2025, new device installations will continue throughout the year, resulting in huge production and sales pressure. The existing production load is acceptable, and supply is higher than in previous years, while demand is in a off - season [7]. - In the first half of 2025, although the prices of polyolefins declined as expected, the decline was not large compared to other chemicals. PP showed an oscillating downward trend, while L had a more fluent decline. In Q2, macro - factors such as trade wars and the Israel - Iran conflict dominated, causing polyolefins to fluctuate widely. Looking forward to the second half of the year, as the impact of trade wars and geopolitical issues fades, the focus may shift back to the fundamentals, which still feature high production and a balanced supply - demand situation. Overall, the market is expected to oscillate weakly, and cost disturbances such as those from crude oil and methanol need to be noted [8][9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - Price: In Q1, polyolefin prices oscillated downward, with a significant decline at the beginning of the year due to increased supply pressure and a slowdown in downstream demand. In Q2, they fluctuated widely due to macro - factors such as trade wars and the Israel - Iran conflict. The 12505 contract rebounded due to strong demand for agricultural films in North China [8][14]. - Basis: In mid - January, the basis of polyolefins declined, especially for L. In February and March, the basis changed little. After late March, the basis trends of PP and L diverged, with PP's spot price being stronger and L's basis oscillating downward [14]. - Spread: The PF59 monthly spread showed an upward trend, especially in March and April, mainly reflecting the expected pressure from future production [14]. - Disk Spread: Since January, the L - P spread has been declining, mainly due to the alleviation of L's supply shortage after new device installations. After the Spring Festival, L strengthened again due to better downstream demand. In April, the L - PP spread further declined and then rebounded slightly [26]. - Methanol Price: Methanol prices have been weakening since January, but rebounded strongly after the Israel - Iran conflict, causing MTO profits to deteriorate [26]. 2. Supply Domestic Capacity Installation - PP: At the beginning of the year, it was expected that over 700 million tons of new devices would be installed, mainly in the first half of the year. In the first half of the year, a total of 2.855 million tons of 6 new devices were installed, slightly lower than expected, but the capacity pressure continued to increase. The main installation processes were oil - based (1.855 million tons) and coal - based (1 million tons) [47]. - PE: At the beginning of the year, it was expected that 5.8 million tons of new PE devices would be installed, with a relatively even quarterly distribution. In the first half of the year, a total of 3.03 million tons of new devices were installed, exceeding half of the plan. The installation progress was smooth, and the pressure of new installations will continue in the second half of the year. In the first half of the year, more standard - grade products were installed, while in the second half, non - standard products will be the focus [48]. Production - End Profits - Crude Oil: In Q1, crude oil prices first rose and then fell. The price increase in December was driven by increased heating demand and concerns about supply shortages. In January, prices started to decline due to factors such as the cease - fire agreement between Palestine and Israel. In Q2, prices fluctuated widely due to trade wars and the Israel - Iran conflict. The production profit of polyolefins from oil first recovered and then deteriorated, but the pressure on enterprises was not significant [62]. - Coal: High production and weak demand led to a decline in coal prices, resulting in good CTO profits [62]. - Methanol: Since late February, methanol prices have first rebounded and then declined, causing MTO profits to first deteriorate and then recover slightly, but overall profits were not good [62]. Domestic Production Volume and Load - PP: Since 2025, due to good production - end profits, enterprises have been more willing to start production, and the number of maintenance days was less than expected. With the high - load operation of existing capacity and the installation of new devices, PP production has continuously reached new highs. As of June, the total production volume was 19.4186 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.54%. All production processes, including oil - based, coal - based, and PDH - based, have increased production [102]. - PE: PE supply has also increased significantly, but production decreased in May due to increased maintenance. As of June, the total PE production volume was 16.1505 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.05%. The increase mainly came from LLD and LD products [110]. Import and Export - PP: As of May, the import volume was 1.3949 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.17%, and the export volume was 1.3286 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.56%. The net import volume was 26,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 94.71%. Affected by the squeeze of domestic supply, the import - export pattern of PP has further reversed, and China has become a net exporter since March [125]. - PE: As of May, the cumulative domestic PE import volume was 5.9651 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.82%, and the export volume was 415,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.79%. The cumulative net import volume was 5.5499 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.82%. The import - export of PE has both increased, and the pattern is relatively stable, but the reduction in imports caused by previous trade conflicts will start to be reflected in June [131]. 3. Demand PP Demand - In the first half of the year, demand was weak during the Spring Festival, but recovered quickly after the festival and entered the peak season in March and April. However, in Q2, demand from downstream industries gradually weakened, and export demand was affected by trade wars. In the future, as the off - season continues, market demand will remain weak [155]. PE Demand - PE demand has more obvious seasonal characteristics. In January, it was in the off - season, but after the Spring Festival, demand for agricultural films recovered, driving up prices. However, after April and May, demand declined as the agricultural film season ended [209]. 4. Inventory - PP Inventory: During the Spring Festival, inventory accumulated seasonally but less than expected. In March, inventory decreased due to high downstream demand. In Q2, inventory remained at a high level, reflecting the high - supply situation [221].

2025 年 7 月 7 日 LLDPE：短期偏弱震荡 陈嘉昕投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481chenjiaxin023887@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2509 | 7282 | -0.15% | 301,296 | 4549 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 0 9合约基差 | -82 | | -94 | | | | 0 9-0 1合约价差 | 3 9 | | 2 2 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 （元/吨） | | | | 华北 | 7200 | | 7190 | | | | 华东 | 7230 | | 7200 | | | | 华南 | 7380 | | 7380 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 LLDPE 市场价格小幅涨跌，价格波幅在 20-100 元/吨。期货高开震荡，尾盘收跌，石化企业价格多数 ...

Core Viewpoint - The PVC industry is experiencing significant losses due to declining demand from the real estate sector and ongoing price drops, leading to a weak supply-demand balance and continued pressure on prices [1][4]. Group 1: Price Trends - PVC prices have dropped by 60% from their peak in October 2021, with no clear signs of recovery as of July 6, 2025 [1]. - The average loss for domestic acetylene-based PVC producers is 520 yuan per ton, indicating high levels of financial strain [2]. Group 2: Supply and Production - The operating load rate of domestic PVC production enterprises is at 78.09%, a slight decrease of 1.64 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - Despite stable weekly production levels around 460,000 tons, the profitability of caustic soda has declined, leading to expectations of reduced PVC production loads in the future [2][4]. - Domestic PVC social inventory stands at 575,200 tons, showing a month-on-month increase of 1.03% but a year-on-year decrease of 38.06% [2]. Group 3: Demand Dynamics - The real estate sector continues to show weak performance, with declines in investment, sales area, new construction, and completion rates, negatively impacting overall PVC demand [3]. - Downstream enterprises are experiencing low order volumes, with the operating rate for PVC pipe sample enterprises estimated at 38.56%, down 1.57 percentage points from the previous week [3]. - PVC exports have increased significantly, with a total export volume of 1,965,900 tons from January to May 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 52.26% [3]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The PVC market is characterized by weak supply and demand, coupled with high loss pressures, suggesting that short-term price movements will likely remain weak and volatile [4].