Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group (09988) with a target price of HKD 144, while the current price is HKD 103.6 [5]. Core Viewpoints - Alibaba's GMV is stabilizing and expected to recover due to a user-first strategy, despite a slowdown in overall e-commerce growth in China [1][19]. - The company is focusing on enhancing user experience and optimizing its membership program, 88VIP, which has accumulated over 42 million high-engagement users contributing more than 25% of GMV [1][19]. - Alibaba's share buyback program has reached unprecedented levels, with a total of 3.381 billion shares repurchased for USD 38.74 billion, indicating a strong commitment to shareholder returns [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Potential and Changes - China's e-commerce penetration still has room for growth, with online retail sales reaching CNY 13.79 trillion in 2022, accounting for 27.2% of total retail sales [1][13]. - The report highlights that Alibaba's market share in online retail has declined from 59%-64% in 2018-2019 to 49% by FY24Q4, attributed to intensified competition [16][19]. - The user-first strategy is expected to enhance consumer retention and purchasing frequency, leading to a potential recovery in GMV [19][32]. 2. Organizational Changes and Strategic Focus - Alibaba has streamlined its organizational structure, focusing on two core businesses: Taobao and Alibaba Cloud, under the leadership of new CEO Wu Yongming [2][5]. - The company is implementing a comprehensive promotion strategy to enhance monetization rates for small and medium-sized merchants, leveraging AI to optimize advertising effectiveness [2][5]. 3. International E-commerce Growth - The report notes that AliExpress is seeing growth through a combination of fully managed and semi-managed services, which account for over 70% of orders, enhancing user experience and attracting new users [4]. - Lazada has achieved its first positive EBITDA in July 2024, supported by a robust logistics network and payment system [4]. 4. Cloud Services and AI Integration - Alibaba Cloud remains the largest IaaS provider in the Asia-Pacific region, with a focus on AI-driven strategies to enhance service offerings and reduce costs [4]. - The report emphasizes the continuous iteration of the Tongyi model, which has shown strong performance in various applications, indicating a commitment to AI development [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for JD Group is "Buy" with a target price set at HKD 157.2, maintaining the rating for the next six months [5]. Core Views - JD Group's Q4 2024 performance exceeded expectations with a revenue of CNY 347 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.4%, driven by strong growth in both product and service revenues [1]. - The company has shown significant profit improvement, with a Non-GAAP net profit of CNY 11.3 billion in Q4 2024, reflecting a 34.5% year-on-year growth [1]. - The report highlights the successful execution of the share repurchase plan, with approximately 255 million shares repurchased, totaling around USD 3.6 billion, and a new plan to repurchase up to USD 5 billion in shares over the next 36 months [1]. - The report emphasizes the positive impact of government subsidies and the optimization of product categories, which are expected to drive sustainable growth in market share and order volume [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, JD Group achieved a total revenue of CNY 347 billion, with product revenue at CNY 281 billion and service revenue at CNY 66 billion, marking year-on-year growths of 14.0% and 10.8% respectively [1]. - The annual revenue for 2024 reached CNY 1,158.8 billion, a 6.8% increase from the previous year, with a Non-GAAP net profit of CNY 47.8 billion, up 35.8% year-on-year [1]. Retail Segment - JD Retail's revenue for Q4 2024 was CNY 307.1 billion, a 14.7% increase, with operating profit rising by 44.7% to CNY 10 billion [2]. - The electronics and home appliances category saw a revenue increase of 15.8% to CNY 174.1 billion, benefiting from the "trade-in" policy and service upgrades [2]. - Daily necessities revenue grew by 11.1% to CNY 106.8 billion, with third-party merchant orders increasing by over 14.7% [2]. Logistics Segment - JD Logistics reported a revenue of CNY 52.1 billion in Q4 2024, a 10.4% increase, with operating profit rising by 37.1% to CNY 1.8 billion [3]. - The collaboration with Taobao and Tmall logistics systems has enhanced external customer revenue, which now accounts for 69.6% of total revenue [3]. - The international expansion of logistics services is accelerating, with a significant increase in self-operated overseas warehouse space [3]. Future Outlook - Revenue projections for JD Group from 2025 to 2027 are adjusted to CNY 1,251 billion, CNY 1,331.2 billion, and CNY 1,409.5 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 8.0%, 6.4%, and 5.9% respectively [4]. - The Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for the same period are set at CNY 51.9 billion, CNY 57.4 billion, and CNY 62.8 billion, indicating a positive growth trajectory [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for JD Group is "Buy" with a target price set at 157.2 HKD, maintaining the rating for the next six months [5]. Core Insights - JD Group reported a strong performance in Q4 2024, with revenue reaching 347 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 13.4%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus expectations. The company's Non-GAAP net profit for the same quarter was 11.3 billion CNY, reflecting a 34.5% increase year-on-year [1][4]. - The retail segment of JD Group saw revenue of 307.1 billion CNY in Q4 2024, up 14.7% year-on-year, driven by the optimization of product categories and enhanced service capabilities [2]. - JD Logistics achieved revenue of 52.1 billion CNY in Q4 2024, a 10.4% increase year-on-year, with a notable focus on international expansion and operational efficiency [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, JD Group's total revenue was 347 billion CNY, with product revenue at 281 billion CNY and service revenue at 66 billion CNY, marking increases of 14.0% and 10.8% respectively [1]. - For the full year 2024, total revenue reached 1,158.8 billion CNY, a 6.8% increase, while Non-GAAP net profit was 47.8 billion CNY, up 35.8% year-on-year [1]. Retail Segment - JD Retail's revenue in Q4 2024 was 307.1 billion CNY, with a 14.7% year-on-year growth. The operating profit was 10 billion CNY, reflecting a 44.7% increase [2]. - The electronics and home appliances category generated 174.1 billion CNY, a 15.8% increase, benefiting from the "trade-in" policy and service upgrades [2]. Logistics Segment - JD Logistics reported revenue of 52.1 billion CNY in Q4 2024, with a 10.4% year-on-year growth and an operating profit of 1.8 billion CNY, up 37.1% [3]. - The company is expanding its international logistics capabilities, with a focus on enhancing service offerings globally [3]. Shareholder Returns - JD Group has been actively repurchasing shares, completing a buyback of approximately 255 million A shares, representing 8.1% of the shares outstanding as of the end of 2023, with a total expenditure of about 3.6 billion USD [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for JD Group is "Buy" with a target price set at HKD 157.2, maintaining the rating for the next six months [5]. Core Views - JD Group's Q4 2024 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching CNY 347 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.4%. The company also reported a significant increase in net profit, with Non-GAAP net profit rising by 34.5% to CNY 11.3 billion [1][4]. - The report highlights the positive impact of government subsidies and the optimization of product categories, which are expected to drive sustainable growth in market share and order volume [2][4]. - JD Logistics is expanding its international presence and enhancing operational efficiency, with revenue growth of 10.4% in Q4 2024, indicating a strong performance in both domestic and international markets [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, JD Group achieved total revenue of CNY 347 billion, with product revenue at CNY 281 billion and service revenue at CNY 66 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth of 14.0% and 10.8% respectively [1]. - For the full year 2024, total revenue was CNY 1,158.8 billion, a 6.8% increase, with Non-GAAP net profit reaching CNY 47.8 billion, up 35.8% [1]. Retail Segment - JD Retail's revenue for Q4 2024 was CNY 307.1 billion, a 14.7% increase, with operating profit rising by 44.7% to CNY 10 billion [2]. - The electronics and home appliances category saw a revenue increase of 15.8%, driven by the "trade-in" policy and service upgrades [2]. Logistics Segment - JD Logistics reported Q4 2024 revenue of CNY 52.1 billion, a 10.4% increase, with operating profit growing by 37.1% to CNY 1.8 billion [3]. - The company is expanding its logistics capabilities internationally, with a focus on enhancing service offerings for overseas clients [3]. Shareholder Returns - JD Group has completed a share buyback of approximately 255 million A shares, totaling around USD 3.6 billion, and has initiated a new buyback plan of up to USD 5 billion over the next 36 months [1][4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting performance of the US stock market and Hong Kong stocks, highlighting the rise of Chinese technology companies and the emergence of the "Terrific 10" as key players in the market [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - Since the beginning of the year, the US stock market has underperformed due to high valuations, liquidity outflows, and the rise of AI in China, while Hong Kong stocks have shown strong performance [3]. - The launch of OpenAI's ChatGPT-4 in March 2023 marked the beginning of a significant AI wave, leading to a surge in the US stock market driven by major tech companies [3]. - The introduction of China's AI DeepSeek R1 in January 2025 has further intensified competition in the AI space, contributing to the resurgence of the Hang Seng Tech Index [3][4]. Group 2: Hang Seng Tech Index - The Hang Seng Tech Index serves as a key indicator for the technology sector in Hong Kong, encompassing a wide range of industries including industrials, consumer discretionary, healthcare, finance, and consulting technology [7]. - The index includes companies that meet specific criteria related to technology utilization, R&D spending, and revenue growth, ensuring a focus on innovative firms [8]. - The index has a total of 30 constituent stocks with a combined market capitalization exceeding 14 trillion, indicating a strong presence in the market [10]. Group 3: Industry Distribution and Weighting - The top six industries within the Hang Seng Tech Index include professional retail (22.8%), information technology equipment (16.42%), software services (16.18%), automotive (10.79%), media and entertainment (10.57%), and semiconductors (10.00%), collectively accounting for 86.80% of the index [12]. - The top ten constituents of the index represent 70.94% of the total weight, showcasing a diverse range of sectors including internet, software, and automotive [13]. - The overall valuation of the index is considered normal, with a PE ratio of 24.19, indicating potential investment opportunities [14][15]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The current AI wave is still in its early stages, with significant impacts expected in sectors such as semiconductors, AI, robotics, and the broader internet [17]. - The article emphasizes the importance of long-term investment strategies in the face of market volatility, particularly in the context of the evolving technology landscape in China [16][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group (09988) with a target price not specified [5]. Core Insights - Alibaba reported FY25Q3 revenue of 280.2 billion yuan, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 1.0%. Adjusted EBITA was 54.9 billion yuan, surpassing expectations by 2.4%. Adjusted net profit reached 51.1 billion yuan, exceeding expectations by 10.7% [1]. - The company has initiated a share buyback program, repurchasing 119 million shares for a total of 1.3 billion USD, with an authorized remaining amount of 20.7 billion USD as of December 31, 2024 [1]. - Capital expenditures (Capex) for FY25Q3 were 31.8 billion yuan, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 106%. The company anticipates that Capex over the next three years will exceed the total of the past decade, with a planned investment of 380 billion yuan in cloud computing and AI infrastructure [1]. Business Segment Summaries Taobao Tmall Group - Revenue for FY25Q3 was 136.1 billion yuan, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 3.3%. Adjusted EBITA was 61.1 billion yuan, surpassing expectations by 4.4% [2]. - Customer management revenue grew by 9% year-on-year, driven by online GMV growth and increased pricing. The number of 88VIP members grew to 49 million, continuing to drive subscription growth through enhanced services [2]. Cloud Intelligence Group - Revenue for FY25Q3 was 31.7 billion yuan, with adjusted EBITA of 3.1 billion yuan, exceeding expectations by 10.9%. The overall revenue grew over 11% year-on-year, primarily driven by double-digit growth in public cloud services [3]. AIDC (AliExpress) - Revenue for FY25Q3 was 37.8 billion yuan, with an adjusted EBITA loss of 5 billion yuan due to increased investments during the overseas shopping season [4]. - The company plans to establish a joint venture with South Korea's Shinsegae to operate AliExpress Korea and Gmarket [4]. Other Businesses - Cainiao generated revenue of 28.2 billion yuan with an adjusted EBITA of 240 million yuan. Local life services revenue was 17 billion yuan, with an adjusted EBITA loss of 600 million yuan, primarily driven by growth in orders from Gaode and Ele.me [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Alibaba for FY 2025-2027 are 992.9 billion yuan, 1,081.5 billion yuan, and 1,180.2 billion yuan respectively. Adjusted net profit estimates for the same period are 147.1 billion yuan, 184.8 billion yuan, and 200.8 billion yuan [5].