Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent easing of trade tensions between China and the U.S., leading to a significant increase in shipping demand and freight rates on U.S. routes, alongside projections for future growth in global shipping demand and oil transportation needs [2][3][4]. Group 1: Trade Relations and Shipping Demand - The recent Geneva trade talks between China and the U.S. resulted in a suspension of tariff increases, marking a temporary easing of trade tensions [2]. - Container booking volumes from China to the U.S. surged by 277%, rising from 5,709 TEU to 21,530 TEU within a week [2]. - Freight rates for U.S. routes increased significantly, with average rates for the West and East coasts reaching $3,091 and $4,069 per FEU, reflecting increases of 31.7% and 22.0% respectively [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - In the short term, supply-demand mismatches are expected to support rising freight rates on U.S. routes, as companies may increase inventory and logistics investments to mitigate potential future tariff impacts [3]. - Shipping companies have reduced capacity on U.S. routes due to previous tariff impacts, with Maersk cutting 20% of its capacity on routes from China to the U.S. [3]. - Long-term projections indicate a potential increase in global shipping demand, with Clarksons forecasting a growth of 0.3% in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026 [3]. Group 3: Oil Demand and Transportation - The IEA has slightly raised its global oil demand forecast for 2025 by 10,000 barrels per day, driven primarily by emerging economies [4]. - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June, which may positively impact oil transportation demand [4]. - The IEA anticipates that OPEC+ production will increase by 310,000 barrels per day this year and by 150,000 barrels per day in 2026 [4]. Group 4: Market Performance - Over the past five trading days, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.76%, while the transportation sector outperformed with a gain of 2.1% [4]. - The shipping sub-sector saw the highest increase at 7.42%, followed by ports at 4.23% and aviation at 2.53% [4].

Core Points - The article highlights the increasing trend of public buses in Wuhan yielding to pedestrians, promoting a culture of traffic civility across the city [1][7] - The "321 Yielding at Crosswalks Operation Guidelines" introduced by Wuhan Public Transport is easy to understand and implement, aiming to enhance safety and civility in traffic [2] - Various transportation companies, including taxi and logistics firms, are joining the initiative to promote yielding behavior, indicating a collective effort to improve traffic civility [2][7] Group 1 - The "321 Yielding at Crosswalks Operation Guidelines" consists of three steps: reduce speed at 30 meters, slow down at 20 meters, and stop to yield at 10 meters [2] - The initiative encourages interaction between drivers and pedestrians, fostering a two-way communication for a more civil travel experience [2] - The Wuhan Public Transport Group has set an example for other transportation sectors to follow, emphasizing the importance of yielding and patience in driving [2][7] Group 2 - The Hubei Shunfeng Company has formed a "Yielding Demonstration Fleet" of 100 vehicles and upgraded its intelligent monitoring system to optimize driving behavior [2] - The initiative is seen as a reflection of urban civility, with the transportation sector taking responsibility to enhance service levels and promote a culture of yielding [7] - The city’s traffic is increasingly characterized by small acts of kindness, contributing to a larger sense of civility and community well-being [7]

近期，各部委密集出台了一系列促消费惠民生的补贴政策，涉及文化旅游、电影消费、技能提升、农 业、新能源汽车等多个领域，一起来看→ 景区、酒店、剧场等推出优惠促销！ 惠民补贴超10亿元 文化和旅游部召开新闻发布会，介绍2025年"5·19中国旅游日"活动相关情况，提到从4月21日至5 月31日，引导旅游景区、旅行社、酒店民宿、院团剧场等推出门票减免、折扣套餐、联票优惠等优 惠促销活动，集中推出文化和旅游消费券包。多个合作单位拟投入惠民补贴超10亿元，各地计划出 台的惠民举措超6000项，进一步激发全民参与热情和旅游消费潜力。 2 看电影有优惠补贴！ 不少于10亿元 近日，国家电影局等启动"中国电影消费年"，以充分发挥电影对提振社会消费的带动作用。"中国 电影消费年"将推出一系列电影消费惠民活动，突出跨行业、跨部门协同联动，打出促进消费组合 拳。主要支持单位预计投入不少于10亿元观影优惠补贴，围绕重点档期支持电影消费季，并持续开 展"周末一起看电影"等促销活动，为观众带来优惠福利。 3 这些车辆和电池更新有补贴！ 8万元、4.2万元 交通运输部办公厅、国家发展改革委办公厅、财政部办公厅印发《2025年新能源城市公交 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the transportation industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by 5% over the next six months [6]. Core Insights - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.19% last week, while the Shenwan Transportation Industry Index rose by 0.24%, underperforming the market by 0.95 percentage points, ranking 22nd among 31 Shenwan primary industries [2]. - The railway and highway sectors saw an increase of 0.90%, and the airport sector increased by 0.17%. Conversely, the shipping and port sector declined by 1.30% [2]. - Among the three major sectors, the largest gains were in public transport (+4.37%), road freight (+4.24%), and raw material supply chain services (+2.71%). The largest declines were in warehousing logistics (-1.79%), shipping (-1.56%), and ports (-0.83%) [2]. - As of February 16, 2025, the Shenwan Transportation sector's PE (TTM) was 16.47 times, positioned at the 66.76 percentile over the past five years [3]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The report provides a comprehensive overview of the market performance, highlighting the fluctuations in the transportation sector and individual stock performances [2]. Industry Key News - The National Development and Reform Commission is initiating a pilot project for logistics data openness to eliminate "information islands" [8]. - The postal and express delivery sector reported a month-on-month increase of approximately 45.05% in cumulative delivery volume [8]. - Hainan Province plans to introduce 18 measures to invigorate the general aviation and low-altitude economy [8]. - ASEAN countries' tourist groups can enter Yunnan's Xishuangbanna without a visa starting February 10 [8]. - The recovery trajectories of Chinese airports vary under complex circumstances [8]. Industry Data - The report includes detailed data on various segments such as aviation airports, shipping ports, logistics, and railways and highways, providing insights into their performance metrics [8].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Quantitative Market Trend Judgment Framework - **Model Construction Idea**: The framework identifies the dominant market style by comparing asset characteristics based on their intrinsic attributes and industry life cycle stages. It evaluates assets using the priority sequence of growth (g) > return on equity (ROE) > dividend yield (D) to determine the most advantageous sectors[5][6][7] - **Model Construction Process**: - Classifies assets into five style stages: external growth, quality growth, quality dividend, value dividend, and distressed value[5] - Prioritizes mainstream assets (actual growth, expected growth, profitability) over secondary assets, with secondary asset priority determined by crowding levels[7] - Uses metrics such as Δg (actual growth momentum), Δgf (expected growth momentum), PB-ROE (valuation), and DP (dividend yield) to evaluate and rank assets[6][7] - **Model Evaluation**: The framework has demonstrated strong explanatory power for A-share market style rotations since 2009, achieving an annualized return of 26.85%[14] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Actual Growth (g) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the momentum of actual growth by evaluating the change in net profit growth rates (Δg)[18] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculates the spread between the top and bottom quintiles of industries based on net profit growth rates[18] - Δg > 0 indicates strengthening growth momentum, while Δg < 0 signals weakening momentum[18] 2. Factor Name: Expected Growth (gf) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures analysts' optimism by assessing changes in expected net profit growth rates (Δgf)[21] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Similar to Δg, calculates the spread between the top and bottom quintiles of industries based on expected net profit growth rates[21] - Δgf > 0 indicates increasing optimism, while Δgf < 0 suggests declining optimism[21] 3. Factor Name: Profitability (ROE) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Evaluates asset quality by combining ROE with valuation metrics (PB-ROE)[22] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Ranks industries based on ROE and PB-ROE residuals[30] - Identifies high ROE industries with low valuations for allocation[30] 4. Factor Name: Quality Dividend (DP+ROE) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Combines dividend yield (DP) and ROE to identify high-quality dividend-paying industries[33] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Scores industries based on DP and ROE, selecting the highest-scoring sectors for allocation[33] 5. Factor Name: Value Dividend (DP+BP) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Combines dividend yield (DP) and book-to-price ratio (BP) to identify undervalued dividend-paying industries[36] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Scores industries based on DP and BP, selecting the highest-scoring sectors for allocation[36] 6. Factor Name: Distressed Value (PB+SIZE) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Identifies distressed industries with low price-to-book ratios (PB) and small market capitalization (SIZE)[38] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Scores industries based on PB and SIZE, selecting the lowest-scoring sectors for allocation[38] --- Backtesting Results of Models and Factors 1. Quantitative Market Trend Judgment Framework - **Annualized Return**: 26.85% since 2009[14] - **Excess Returns**: Positive in most years, with notable outperformance in 2020 (44%), 2021 (38%), and 2022 (62%)[15] 2. Actual Growth Factor - **Recent Performance**: Δg turned negative, indicating weakening growth momentum and reduced opportunities for actual growth strategies[18] 3. Expected Growth Factor - **Recent Performance**: Δgf turned negative, signaling a halt in analysts' optimism and limited opportunities for expected growth strategies[21] 4. Profitability Factor - **Recent Performance**: ROE advantage continues to decline, but reduced crowding levels suggest potential opportunities in a weakening growth environment[22][24] 5. Quality Dividend Factor - **Recent Performance**: Outperformed in 2016, 2017, and 2023; recent recommendations include sectors like "Other Home Appliances" and "Service Robots"[33] 6. Value Dividend Factor - **Recent Performance**: Outperformed in 2009, 2017, and 2021-2023; recent recommendations include sectors like "Pet Food" and "Security"[36] 7. Distressed Value Factor - **Recent Performance**: Outperformed in 2015-2016 and 2021-2023; recent recommendations include sectors like "Other Electronic Components" and "Printing and Dyeing"[38]