有色金属日报 2026-2-26 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 【行情资讯】 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 上海出台地产"沪七条"，国内权益市场继续反弹，叠加资源民族主义担忧，铜价走升，昨日伦铜 3M 合约上涨 1.17%至 13349 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 102620 元/吨。昨日 LME 库存增加 6475 至 249650 吨，增量主要来自北美仓库，注销仓单比例提高，Cash/3M 维持贴水。国内上期所日度仓单 增加 1.1 至 28.8 万吨。华东地区现货由升水转为贴水期货 180 元/吨，下游陆续入市采购，成交回 暖，但供应较多导致基差报价走弱。广东地区铜现货贴 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Bullish, recommended to hold long positions [1] - Silver: Cautious, advised to be cautious about chasing high prices [1] - Copper: Bullish, recommended to hold long positions [1] - Zinc: Cautious bullish, advised to be cautious about going long [1] - Lead: Bullish, expected to rebound [1] - Tin: Bullish, expected to be strong [1] - Aluminum: Bullish, expected to rebound [1] - Nickel: Bullish, expected to rebound [1] - Industrial Silicon: Bullish, advised to try long positions with a light position [1] - Polysilicon: Bearish, expected to be under pressure [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Bullish, recommended to hold long positions [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical risks such as US tariff fluctuations and the Iran situation provide support for gold. In the long - term, central banks continue to buy gold, maintaining its strategic allocation value. Silver's industrial demand is increasing, and its financial hedging attributes are strengthened, but short - term participation is difficult [1][3]. - The relaxation of housing purchase restrictions in Shanghai boosts the property market, and with the approaching of the peak consumption season and the Two Sessions, copper prices are expected to be strong in the short - term and remain optimistic in the long - term [1][5][7]. - The supply and demand of zinc are both weak, and inventory accumulation restricts the upside space. It is advisable to be cautiously bullish and wait for more macro guidance [1][8][10]. - The cost of alumina has stabilized at a low level. Although inventory has accumulated, the resumption of downstream enterprises after the holiday is expected to drive the short - term rebound of aluminum prices [1][11][13]. - Indonesia's reduction of nickel production quotas and supply disturbances lead to a short - term rebound in nickel prices, while stainless steel is in the off - season with inventory accumulation [1][15][17]. - The continuous destocking of lithium carbonate in the off - season, along with potential supply disruptions, drives up prices, and it is recommended to go long [1][19][21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: COMEX gold and silver futures rose, and the decline of the US dollar index and the increase of gold ETF holdings reflect the strong demand for hedging [2]. - **Underlying Logic**: Uncertainties such as the US - Iran negotiation and Trump's tariff policy, as well as the "safety stock theory", enhance the value of gold and silver as hedging assets [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold has a long - term upward trend. Short - term support levels are around 1120 for gold and 21000 for silver. Be vigilant against profit - taking risks [4]. Copper - **Market Performance**: The prices of Shanghai copper, LME copper, and COMEX copper all rose, and trading volume and open interest increased significantly. Inventory has accumulated, and the basis and premium have changed [5]. - **Underlying Logic**: Global copper mine supply is tight, and domestic copper smelting capacity growth has been curbed. High copper prices and the holiday effect have led to significant inventory accumulation [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions, take partial profits at high prices, and beware of price drops after the macro - sentiment fades. In the long - term, be optimistic about copper. The short - term price range for Shanghai copper is [101500, 105500] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [13000, 13500] US dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: Shanghai zinc and LME zinc prices showed a narrow - range oscillation. Trading volume and open interest increased, inventory changed, and the basis and premium also changed [8]. - **Underlying Logic**: Global zinc mine supply may shrink in 2026, and supply and demand are both weak during the holiday. Inventory has accumulated seasonally [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be cautiously bullish, pay attention to the post - holiday demand recovery rhythm, and wait for more macro guidance. In the long - term, try long positions on dips. The price range for Shanghai zinc is [24200, 25000] yuan/ton, and for LME zinc is [3300, 3400] US dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Aluminum and alumina futures prices rose, and inventory and basis data changed [11]. - **Underlying Logic**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation continues. New electrolytic aluminum projects are expected to increase production steadily. Inventory is a short - term suppressing factor, and the alumina market is in an oversupply situation [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on dips in the short - term, pay attention to inventory accumulation, and the main operating range is [22000 - 25000] [14]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: Nickel and stainless steel futures prices rose, and inventory and basis data changed [15]. - **Underlying Logic**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation continues. Indonesia's reduction of nickel production quotas and supply disturbances increase market concerns. Stainless steel is in the off - season with inventory accumulation [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on dips, pay attention to Indonesian policies and stainless steel inventory changes, and the main operating range for nickel is [130000 - 150000] [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract of lithium carbonate futures rose, and the prices of spot lithium products also increased. Inventory decreased, and production decreased [19]. - **Underlying Logic**: Supply disruptions such as factory fires and export controls, as well as the expected increase in demand for replenishment, strengthen the expectation of supply tightening [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on dips, and the price range is [162000 - 180000] [22].

Core Viewpoint - The long-term outlook for the tin industry is influenced by multiple factors, including strengthened global environmental requirements, geopolitical risks, and insufficient exploration investments, leading to a continued weak supply growth scenario [1] Supply Factors - The addition of large mining projects is expected to remain limited, resulting in a structurally weak supply growth [1] - The high concentration of tin upstream may lead to supply disruptions [1] Demand Factors - Tin is an irreplaceable metal raw material in the fields of new energy and electronic communications [1] - The ongoing global development of the new energy industry, advancements in artificial intelligence, and improvements in new productivity will provide significant growth momentum for tin demand in the medium to long term [1] Market Dynamics - The overall market is likely to experience a tight balance between supply and demand, intertwined with macroeconomic fluctuations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Youyan New Materials (SH600206) reached its daily limit, closing at 24.96 yuan with a 10% increase, driven by strong financial performance and structural improvements [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's net profit for the first three quarters increased by 114.14% year-on-year, with a 56.31% increase in Q3 alone, indicating robust financial health [2]. - The sales revenue from the core target material business grew by 50% year-on-year, contributing positively to overall performance [2]. Group 2: Governance and Policy Changes - The company optimized its governance structure by abolishing the supervisory board and establishing an audit committee, which is expected to enhance decision-making efficiency and boost market confidence [2]. - A new policy mandates an annual cash dividend ratio of no less than 10%, which is likely to attract investors [2]. Group 3: Industry Context and Demand - Youyan New Materials is involved in the research and production of rare earth materials, electronic films, and precious metal materials, with applications in next-generation information technology and high-end equipment manufacturing [2]. - The recent positive trends in these sectors have increased industry demand, providing more growth opportunities for the company [2]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - On February 25, the non-ferrous metal sector saw several stocks perform actively, creating a sector-wide effect that likely contributed to Youyan's stock performance [2]. - Technical indicators suggest that if the MACD forms a golden cross and the stock price breaks through significant resistance levels, it may attract technical investors [2]. - There was a net inflow of main funds on that day, indicating market optimism towards the stock [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated and trended stronger, and the spot import window for refined copper in China was briefly opened. The Trump administration's global tariffs are set to be imposed on Tuesday, with the possibility of the tax rate rising to 15%. LME copper inventories increased by 1,350 tons to 243,175 tons, Comex copper inventories increased by 1,024 tons to 545,736 tons, and domestic social inventories increased by over 150,000 tons to 508,500 tons. Short - term copper prices face high - level wide - range fluctuations, with the risk of a second callback due to the combination of fading macro sentiment and inventory pressure. However, the core logic driving copper price increases remains unchanged. If copper prices experience a short - term deep correction, it will be a good opportunity to lay out long - term long positions [1]. - **Aluminum**: On the first trading day after the holiday, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all trended weakly. Overseas alumina prices rose, and domestic electrolytic aluminum plants carried out raw material winter storage, causing the alumina futures price to rise against the trend. However, social inventory backlog and the pressure of expiring warehouse receipts cancellation suppressed the upward trend. After the holiday, Shanghai aluminum may have a short - term price increase, but the overall space is limited. The subsequent price increase position of aluminum will be determined by the inventory accumulation amplitude of aluminum ingots [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel rose 3.64% to $17,915 per ton, and Shanghai nickel rose 1.65% to 140,330 yuan per ton. LME nickel inventories decreased by 378 tons to 287,328 tons, and SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 534 tons to 51,924 tons. The fundamentals show that nickel ore premiums are strengthening, and nickel iron prices are oscillating at a high level. There are concerns about tight resource supply, and the boundary cost support continues to rise. Although the phased demand has weakened month - on - month, the cost support is still solid. Pay continuous attention to the opportunity of lightly testing long positions near the cost line [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Macro uncertainties from the US tariff policy and inventory increases are factors affecting copper prices. The long - term upward logic of copper prices remains due to supply shortages and demand growth. Short - term risks exist, but price dips may present long - term investment opportunities [1]. - **Aluminum**: The price trend is affected by overseas price increases, domestic raw material storage, social inventory, and overseas macro factors. The post - holiday price increase space is limited, and inventory accumulation is a key factor [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Price increases are accompanied by inventory decreases. Fundamental factors such as supply shortages and cost support drive the price. Pay attention to long - position opportunities near the cost line [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper increased by 1,195 yuan/ton from February 13th to February 24th. LME and Comex inventories increased, while domestic + bonded area social inventories decreased by 0.5 million tons [1][5]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead decreased by 30 yuan/ton. LME inventories remained unchanged, while SHFE inventories increased [5]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum increased. LME inventories decreased, while SHFE inventories and social inventories increased [6]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 2,450 yuan/ton. LME inventories increased slightly, while SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased [6]. - **Zinc**: The主力结算 price increased by 0.9%. Social inventories increased by 3.62 million tons [8]. - **Tin**: The主力结算 price increased by 1.5%. SHFE inventories increased by 2,264 tons [8]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [10][11][14]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the spread between the first - and second - month contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [15][19][21]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [23][25][27]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [29][31][33]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2026 [35][37][39]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2026 [42][44][46]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience and professional titles in the field of non - ferrous metals research, and have received many industry awards [49][50].

Group 1 - The zinc battery sector experienced a significant surge, with companies such as Xiyang Co. and Zinc Industry Co. reaching their daily price limit [1] - Other notable performers included Zhuhai Group, Luoping Zinc, and Hongda Co., which saw substantial price increases [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided in the report regarding industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - The RMB exchange rate has shown a strong trend, driven by domestic industrial progress, geopolitical stances, policy coordination, and a weakening US dollar. The long - term upward trend of RMB is supported by the continuous improvement of domestic industrial chain autonomy [2]. - Stock indices are expected to be strong, supported by positive liquidity and sentiment, with the spring rally and policy - favorable expectations [5]. - Treasury bonds' upward space should be viewed with caution, with a suggestion to hold a small amount of T2606 mid - line long positions and wait for short - term layout opportunities [6]. - Container shipping futures (European routes) are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, with the market weighing macro - level positives against the physical market fundamentals [10]. - For non - ferrous metals, different metals have different outlooks. For example, copper is expected to first consolidate and then rise; aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy are expected to consolidate; zinc is expected to fluctuate strongly; nickel - stainless steel is expected to maintain high - level volatility; tin is expected to maintain high - level consolidation; lead is expected to fluctuate [15][16][17][19][20][21]. - For oilseeds, the market is expected to focus on short - selling and reverse - arbitrage opportunities. Oils are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [23][25]. - For energy and oil and gas, high - sulfur fuel oil market structure is weak, while low - sulfur marine fuel oil is relatively strong. Asphalt is expected to have small fluctuations [27][28]. - For precious metals, platinum and palladium are expected to have a long - term bullish trend, while gold and silver are strategically bullish, with silver focusing on the opportunity to repair the gold - silver ratio [31][34]. - For chemicals, pulp futures can try a small - amount low - buying strategy, and offset - printing paper futures can maintain range trading. Pure benzene and styrene should focus on geopolitical trends, and LPG is mainly affected by geopolitics. Methanol should be temporarily observed, and plastics and PP are supported by cost. Rubber is expected to maintain a strong trend, and urea can be bought at low levels. Glass and soda ash's supply expectations may change [35][36][38][40][41][44][50][54][56][60]. - For black commodities, rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to fluctuate weakly; iron ore is expected to stop falling and stabilize; coking coal and coke have different trends, and ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to fluctuate weakly [64][67][70][71]. - For agricultural and soft commodities, the pig market has weak post - holiday demand; cotton is expected to be strong, but the upward space is restricted; sugar has limited upward space; eggs are expected to be stable in the short term and rise in the medium term; apples are pressured by weak demand; red dates are expected to face pressure and maintain low - level fluctuations; logs can be mainly observed [72][75][76][77][87][88][90]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Market Information**: Includes news such as US tariff adjustments, gold margin and price - limit adjustments, Spring Festival tourism data, AI - related policies, the Iran situation, and Fed officials' statements [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB has appreciated, driven by domestic industrial and geopolitical factors, as well as a weakening US dollar. Export enterprises are advised to lock in forward exchange settlement at around 6.95, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at around 6.88 [2][4]. - **Stock Indices**: The stock indices opened higher after the Spring Festival, with small - and medium - cap indices performing relatively strongly. They are expected to be strong due to positive liquidity and sentiment [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rose on Tuesday, but the upward space should be viewed with caution. T2606 mid - line long positions can be held in small amounts, and short - term chasing of highs should be avoided [6]. - **Container Shipping (European Routes)**: The futures market showed a pattern of rising and then falling on the first trading day after the holiday. It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, with multiple positive factors and some negative factors [8][9][10]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price of copper rose slightly after the holiday. It is expected to first consolidate and then rise, and a horizontal arbitrage strategy can be considered [13][15]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy are expected to consolidate. Aluminum should pay attention to post - holiday demand and the Iran situation; alumina is bearish in the long term; cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up to aluminum [16][17]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices followed the external market to make up for the increase. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but beware of the negative feedback of tariff news on the market [17]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: Nickel and stainless steel rose on the first trading day after the holiday. They are expected to maintain high - level volatility, and attention should be paid to the resumption of work in the downstream and US tariff disturbances [17][19]. - **Tin**: Tin prices recovered their decline and are expected to maintain high - level consolidation, paying attention to the approval progress in Indonesia and the actual resumption of production in Myanmar [20]. - **Lead**: Lead prices had a large divergence after the opening, and it is recommended to wait and see. It is expected to fluctuate [20][21]. Oils and Feeds - **Oilseeds**: The US tariff policy may affect China's soybean procurement. The supply pressure is expected to return in the second quarter. The domestic soybean meal market is short - term long and medium - term bearish, and attention should be paid to short - selling and reverse - arbitrage opportunities [22][23]. - **Oils**: Oils are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. Palm oil is in the production - reduction season, but exports are declining; soybean oil has cost support; rapeseed oil supply is expected to be loose [24][25]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **Fuel Oil**: The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market structure is weak, while the low - sulfur marine fuel oil is relatively strong due to rigid buying support [27]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt prices fluctuated slightly. The spot market is affected by the rise in crude oil prices during the holiday, but the actual transaction is not satisfactory. It may face a decline if the demand fails to meet expectations after the holiday [28]. Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: Platinum and palladium are expected to be bullish in the long term, supported by factors such as tariff policies and the Iran situation. Attention should be paid to relevant investigations and new tariff measures [30][31]. - **Gold and Silver**: Gold and silver prices adjusted downward. They are strategically bullish, and silver should focus on the opportunity to repair the gold - silver ratio. Attention should be paid to tariff policies and Fed meetings [33][34]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Printing Paper**: Pulp futures are expected to continue to rise, and a small - amount low - buying strategy can be considered. Offset - printing paper futures are expected to fluctuate, and range trading can be maintained [35][36]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Pure benzene and styrene prices rose after the holiday. Attention should be paid to geopolitical trends, and a long - position strategy can be considered after a pullback [37][38]. - **LPG**: LPG is mainly affected by geopolitics, especially the Iran - US negotiation. The domestic supply and demand situation has little change [39][40]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices rose, mainly due to concerns about the Iran - US conflict and a significant reduction in imports. It is recommended to wait and see [41]. - **Plastics and PP**: Plastic and PP prices rose following the oil price. They are supported by cost and macro - factors. Attention should be paid to mid - stream inventory accumulation and downstream demand release [42][44]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices are expected to maintain a strong trend. Natural rubber is in the low - production season, and synthetic rubber has cost support. Attention should be paid to post - holiday demand and inventory digestion [45][50][51]. - **Urea**: Urea prices rose, driven by the high price of the latest Indian urea import tender. It is recommended to buy at low levels [53][54]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Soda ash is expected to have a complex supply - demand situation, with potential weakening of demand and possible production reduction. Glass is in a supply - demand weak situation, and high inventory is a risk [55][56][57][60]. - **Propylene**: Propylene prices are supported by cost and supply - demand factors. Attention should be paid to the Iran - US negotiation and the supply - demand situation [62]. Black Commodities - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils**: Rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to fluctuate weakly, with high supply pressure and slow - starting demand [64]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore is expected to stop falling and stabilize. The supply improvement needs to be observed, and the demand is expected to increase with the resumption of work in steel mills [65][67]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal is relatively weak, while coke has a first - round price increase. Attention should be paid to the resumption of work in mines and steel mills [68][70]. - **Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to fluctuate weakly, affected by the high inventory of downstream steel products [71]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Pigs**: The post - holiday pig market has weak demand, and a selling - call - option strategy can be considered [72][73]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices are strong, but the upward space is restricted by the high domestic - foreign cotton price difference. A long - position strategy can be considered after a pullback [74][75]. - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar is under pressure, and the upward space of sugar prices is limited [76]. - **Eggs**: Eggs are expected to be stable in the short term and rise in the medium term, affected by high inventory and weak consumption in the short term [77]. - **Apples**: Apple prices are pressured by weak post - holiday demand, but the decline space is limited due to delivery contradictions [87]. - **Red Dates**: Red dates are expected to face pressure and maintain low - level fluctuations, with attention paid to post - holiday demand [88]. - **Logs**: Logs can be mainly observed, with a relatively neutral valuation. A small - amount low - buying strategy and a small - amount 03 - 05 reverse - arbitrage strategy can be considered [89][90].

中辉有色观点 | | 1 11 | 12 2 | 200 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | - | | August And And States of the | 11 100 Lad HA | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 国内假日期间事件复杂：美国关税反复、伊朗局势变化，另外日本政府或给资本市 | | | 多单持有 | 场带来潜在动荡。黄金大涨，今日开盘国内市场将补涨。中长期地缘秩序重塑，不 | | ★ | | 确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | | | 白银光伏、新能源汽车及 AI 等新兴领域推动其工业需求占比攀升至近 60%，成为需 | | 白银 | 谨慎追高 | 求增长的核心引擎；全球流动性宽松强化了其与黄金联动的避险金融属性。短期参 | | ★ | | 与难度大，关注风险报偿比。 | | 铜 | | 特朗普 10%关税生效，美联储官员放鹰，伊朗局势紧张，国内 LPR 按兵不动，宏观 | | | 回调试多 | 情绪多空交织。随着金三银四消费旺季和国内两会临近，铜整体趋势偏强， ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The report maintains a bullish view on copper prices in the medium - term, as copper fundamentals show limited supply and increasing demand. In the short - to - medium term, the stabilization time of copper prices depends on whether precious metals stabilize, and attention should be paid to the support levels of 97,000 and 99,000 for SHFE copper [1]. - For aluminum, after the price increase, there is an unexpected increase in supply and weak terminal demand. It is advisable to go long after the supply - demand negative factors are realized. If the Iran situation deteriorates, it may cause the aluminum price to rise [1]. - Zinc's domestic fundamentals are average, but the market is optimistic about its allocation elasticity due to limited long - term capital expenditure and about 100,000 tons of supply disturbances from Iranian zinc mines. Attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage opportunities [3]. - Nickel's short - term real - world fundamentals are weak, with a slight decline in pure nickel production, weak overall demand, continuous domestic delivery, and stable LME inventory. The short - term sentiment of the non - ferrous sector is dominant due to the reduction of Indonesian nickel ore quotas [6]. - Stainless steel's fundamentals remain weak, with a slight decline in steel mill production, downstream entering the off - season, a slight decline in nickel iron prices, a small increase in chrome iron prices, seasonal inventory accumulation, and a small increase in warehouse receipts. The short - term sentiment of the non - ferrous sector is dominant due to the Indonesian quota news [10]. - For lead, the supply - demand contradiction is alleviated, and there is an expectation of looser spot supply. It is recommended to try short positions at high prices in the short term, and the lead price is expected to fluctuate in the coming week [13]. - Tin prices fluctuated downward this week. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see. In the long term, if there is a macro turning point in the second half of 2026, the price may fluctuate downward significantly [15]. - Industrial silicon's short - term supply and demand are close to balance, and the price is expected to fluctuate with costs. In the long term, the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle, anchored by the seasonal marginal cost [19]. - For lithium carbonate, the short - term fundamentals are strong, and it is in a de - stocking trend in the off - season. If the inventory in the intermediate links is further reduced to a low level, there is a large space for calendar spread arbitrage [21]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - This week, copper prices continued to fluctuate significantly. The US's ability to siphon inventory is gradually disappearing, but global consumption is still good. There is strong support from rigid demand at the current price. The industry - end support remains. The mid - term view is bullish on copper prices, and in the short - to - medium term, attention should be paid to the support levels of 97,000 and 99,000 for SHFE copper [1]. Aluminum - The aluminum price dropped significantly with the non - ferrous and precious metal sectors. The spot premium strengthened, and demand was weak. After the price increase, there was an unexpected increase in supply and weak terminal demand. If the Iran situation deteriorates, it may cause the aluminum price to rise [1]. Zinc - On the supply side, domestic and imported TC are accelerating their decline, which is expected to ease after the resumption of northern mines after the Spring Festival. In November, Huoshaoyun zinc ingots were officially put into production, and other smelters had limited production increases. In February, production is expected to decrease by 50,000 - 60,000 tons month - on - month. On the demand side, domestic demand weakened seasonally, and overseas demand in Europe was average. The market is optimistic about zinc's allocation elasticity, and attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage opportunities [3]. Nickel - On the supply side, pure nickel production decreased slightly month - on - month. On the demand side, it was overall weak. On the inventory side, domestic delivery continued, and LME inventory remained stable. The short - term real - world fundamentals are weak, and the short - term sentiment of the non - ferrous sector is dominant due to the reduction of Indonesian nickel ore quotas [6]. Stainless Steel - On the supply side, steel mill production decreased slightly month - on - month. On the demand side, downstream entered the off - season. In terms of cost, nickel iron prices declined slightly, and chrome iron prices increased slightly. In terms of inventory, there was seasonal inventory accumulation and a small increase in warehouse receipts. The fundamentals remain weak, and the short - term sentiment of the non - ferrous sector is dominant due to the Indonesian quota news [10]. Lead - On the supply side, primary lead production was driven by profits, and production decreased seasonally due to the Spring Festival holiday. Concentrates were in short supply, and TC continued to weaken. Secondary lead was affected by environmental protection and losses and some enterprises had early holidays and maintenance. On the demand side, the battery operating rate declined, and battery production inventory accumulated monthly. The supply - demand contradiction was alleviated, and there was an expectation of looser spot supply. It is recommended to try short positions at high prices in the short term [13]. Tin - This week, tin prices fluctuated downward. On the supply side, there are differences in the expectation of Wa State's production resumption in the first quarter. Indonesia determined the quota for 2026 to be 60,000 tons. On the demand side, there are differences in the willingness to replenish inventory, and overseas consumption is generally flat. Domestic inventory increased slightly, and overseas LME inventory increased fluctuantly. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see; in the long term, the price may fluctuate downward significantly in the second half of 2026 [15]. Industrial Silicon - Southwest production enterprises are in a shutdown state, and a large factory in Xinjiang has reduced production. The monthly supply continues to shrink. In February, supply and demand are expected to decrease simultaneously, and the overall trend is to reduce inventory. In the short term, supply and demand are close to balance, and the price is expected to fluctuate with costs. In the long term, the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle, anchored by the seasonal marginal cost [19]. Lithium Carbonate - Recently, macro sentiment and regulatory tightening have had a large impact on prices. The price and positions of lithium carbonate continued to decline last week. On the raw material side, lithium ore prices continued to decline, and mine sales were limited. On the lithium salt side, most upstream enterprises were reluctant to sell, and downstream cathode enterprises maintained low - level procurement. The short - term fundamentals are strong, and it is in a de - stocking trend in the off - season. If the inventory in the intermediate links is further reduced to a low level, there is a large space for calendar spread arbitrage [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The basic metals are in a state of shock consolidation, and attention should be paid to the progress of downstream consumption recovery. In the short term, the basic metals are expected to be in a shock state. In the medium term, the risk of the Fed's independence and concerns about supply disruptions remain, and varieties such as copper, aluminum, tin, and nickel are expected to maintain a shock - upward trend [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - **Viewpoint**: Trump's tariff was rejected, and copper prices are in high - level shock. - **Analysis**: On February 24, the spot of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper reported a premium of 255 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 275 yuan/ton; the spot TC of 25% copper concentrate was - 51.17 US dollars/dry ton, with a month - on - month increase of 0 US dollars/dry ton. The US court ruled that Trump's tariff was unconstitutional, which supported copper prices. The supply of copper ore is in a tight pattern, and the smelting profit is falling, with the supply of refined copper expected to shrink. The terminal demand is weak, and the social inventory of refined copper is high, which restricts the upward space of copper prices. - **Outlook**: The supply constraints of copper still exist. Although copper prices may be adjusted in the short term, the long - term upward trend remains. It is expected to be shock - upward [6]. 3.1.2 Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The expectation of production cuts is in a game with the reality of oversupply, and the alumina price is in shock operation. - **Analysis**: On February 24, the national weighted index of alumina spot was 2,637.5 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5.9 yuan/ton; the alumina warehouse receipt was 327,928 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 18,053 tons. The macro sentiment amplifies the market fluctuations. The spot average price has dropped significantly compared with the end of last year, and the supply contraction expectation is intensifying. However, the supply contraction is still insufficient, and the cost support is weakening. - **Outlook**: The current supply and demand are in a state of oversupply, but the expectation of production cuts is intensifying. It is expected to maintain a shock state [7]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: The inventory has increased significantly, and the aluminum price is in shock operation. - **Analysis**: On February 24, the domestic electrolytic aluminum spot average price was 23,425 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 236 yuan/ton; the spot premium was - 155 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 35 yuan/ton. The Trump tariff policy has increased uncertainty, and the short - term risk preference has decreased. The domestic production capacity is stable, and the smelting profit is high. The demand is suppressed by high prices, and the inventory is increasing. - **Outlook**: The positive macro expectation and the expectation of tightening supply and demand remain unchanged. It is expected that the aluminum price will maintain a shock - upward trend [8]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: The cost support continues, and the price is in shock operation. - **Analysis**: The price of scrap aluminum is high, and the supply is tight, providing strong cost support. The production start - up rate is at a low level, and the supply may be restricted by policies. The demand is mainly for rigid - need replenishment at low prices. The social inventory has increased. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the cost support is strong, and the price is expected to maintain a shock - upward trend. In the medium term, the cost support logic is strengthened, and the supply and demand are in a tight balance. It is expected to maintain a shock - upward trend [10]. 3.1.5 Zinc - **Viewpoint**: The US tariff policy is fluctuating, and the zinc price is in high - level shock. - **Analysis**: On February 24, the premium of Shanghai 0 zinc to the main contract was 25 yuan/ton, etc. The total inventory of zinc ingots in seven places was 174,300 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 36,200 tons. The Trump tariff was judged illegal, and the market risk preference increased. The zinc ore processing fee decline has slowed down, and the zinc ingot production has increased. The domestic consumption is entering the peak season, but the terminal demand is weak. - **Outlook**: The supply pressure of zinc ingots has increased, and the terminal demand is weak. The social inventory will continue to accumulate. However, the macro sentiment may improve near the Two Sessions. It is expected that the zinc price will be in a shock state [11]. 3.1.6 Lead - **Viewpoint**: The LME lead inventory has increased significantly, and the lead price is in shock operation. - **Analysis**: On February 24, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,925 yuan/ton, etc. The domestic lead ingot social inventory was 64,300 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 6,900 tons. The spot premium has increased slightly, the supply has decreased slightly, and the demand is in a weak state. - **Outlook**: The production of primary and secondary lead smelters remains high. After the Spring Festival, the start - up rate of lead - acid battery enterprises may gradually recover, but the terminal demand is weak, and the inventory may continue to accumulate. The cost of waste batteries remains high. It is expected that the lead price will be in a shock state [12][13]. 3.1.7 Nickel - **Viewpoint**: The nickel ore quota in Indonesia in 2026 has been determined, and the nickel price is in a strong - upward trend. - **Analysis**: On February 24, the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt was 51,924 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 534 tons; the LME nickel inventory was 287,328 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 378 tons. The approved nickel ore production quota in Indonesia is between 260 million tons and 270 million tons. The supply pressure of nickel remains, and the demand is in the off - season. Indonesia has revised down the nickel ore quota and plans to revise the domestic trade pricing method. - **Outlook**: The current fundamentals of nickel have not improved significantly, and the supply and demand are expected to be loose in February. The LME inventory is at a high level, which suppresses the price. The revision of the nickel ore quota in Indonesia supports the nickel price. It is expected that the nickel price will be in a shock - upward trend [14][15]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: The nickel price is rising in shock, and the stainless - steel futures price is rising. - **Analysis**: On February 24, the stainless - steel futures warehouse receipt inventory was 60,810 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 612 tons. The nickel - iron price is strong, and the cost of stainless steel is supported. The production in January increased slightly, and it is expected to decline significantly in February. The terminal demand is cautious, and the inventory is increasing. - **Outlook**: The production in January increased slightly, but it is expected to decline significantly in February. The downstream demand is weak in the off - season. The fundamentals suppress the price, but the cost support exists. It is expected that the stainless - steel price will be in a shock - upward trend [16]. 3.1.9 Tin - **Viewpoint**: There is no obvious driving force, and the tin price is in shock operation. - **Analysis**: On February 24, the LME tin warehouse receipt inventory increased by 15 tons to 7,675 tons; the Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory increased by 1,428 tons to 11,781 tons. The spot price of 1 tin ingot was 387,250 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 8,600 yuan/ton. The supply of tin is still a key factor affecting the price. The supply in Myanmar has weakened, and the supply in Indonesia is restricted. The demand in the semiconductor, photovoltaic, and new - energy vehicle industries is increasing. - **Outlook**: The supply risk is high, and the inventory is at a low level. It is expected that the tin price will be in a shock - upward trend in the medium and long term [17][18]. 3.2行情监测 3.2.1 Copper - Not provided in the given content 3.2.2 Alumina - Not provided in the given content 3.2.3 Aluminum - Not provided in the given content 3.2.4 Aluminum Alloy - Not provided in the given content 3.2.5 Zinc - Not provided in the given content 3.2.6 Lead - Not provided in the given content 3.2.7 Nickel - Not provided in the given content 3.2.8 Stainless Steel - Not provided in the given content 3.2.9 Tin - Not provided in the given content 3.3中信期货商品指数 - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity 20 index was 2,766.04, with a month - on - month increase of 2.23%; the industrial product index was 2,300.06, with a month - on - month increase of 1.14%; the PPI commodity index was 1,405.49, with a month - on - month increase of 0.67% [144]. - **Plate Index**: The non - ferrous metal index on February 24, 2026, was 2,695.65, with a daily increase of 0.95%, a 5 - day increase of 0.27%, a 1 - month decrease of 3.69%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.36% [145].