金融期货早评 宏观：关税风波再起 【市场资讯】1）美联储理事沃勒：多位 CEO 称 AI 将致大量裁员，3 月利率决议取决于 2 月就业数据。2）特朗普关税—①欧洲议会暂停批准欧美贸易协议。②特朗普警告不遵守与 美国贸易协定的国家将面临更高关税。③美众议院议长约翰逊谈关税退税：无先例可循， 将由白宫定夺。④英首相发言人：一切措施都在考虑之中。3）伊朗问题—①特朗普称倾向 于与伊朗达成协议，而非战争。②美特使威特科夫和库什纳将参加新一轮美伊谈判。③美 媒称美军参联会主席警告对伊动武风险极高，易陷长期冲突。4）飞猪发布数据显示，春节 假期国内游订单量再创新高，其中门票订单量同比去年增长超 80%，酒店间夜量同比增长 75%。更长假期还带来节中出游需求的进一步释放，大年初二至初五之间出行的订单量同 比增长约三成。 【南华观点】2026 年春节假期期间，海外金融市场主要围绕 AI 产业变局、地缘政治博弈 及关税政策重构三大主线展开博弈。具体来看：一为 AI 产业主线。AI 产业正经历深度生态 变革，产业深化过程中，行业层级分化持续加剧，核心是盈利逻辑的重新定位；二是地缘 政治主线。地缘政治方面，大国关系是影响市场波动 ...

Market Overview - A-shares opened significantly higher with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.17%, Shenzhen Component Index up 1.82%, and ChiNext Index up 1.76% as of midday close [1] - The strong opening is attributed to multiple favorable factors, including a stable and positive external market during the Spring Festival, with Hong Kong stocks and FTSE China A50 Index showing steady gains [1] - Domestic liquidity remains reasonably ample, with effective reverse repurchase operations before the holiday stabilizing the market's funding situation, and increased capital inflow post-holiday providing support for market upward movement [1] - Macroeconomic recovery and ongoing industrial policy implementation have further boosted market risk appetite, leading to optimistic investor expectations for the capital market in the Year of the Rabbit [1] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals, oil and gas, and computing power sectors saw the largest index gains, with precious metals leading the charge [2] - Precious metals surged, with Xiaocheng Technology rising nearly 13% and Hunan Silver approaching the daily limit, alongside other gold-related stocks [4] - The oil and gas sector was active, with Tongyuan Petroleum hitting the daily limit and other companies like Intercontinental Oil and Huibo Petroleum also seeing significant gains [5] - Fiber optic stocks continued to perform well, with Hangdian Co. hitting the daily limit and other companies in the sector experiencing substantial increases [7] - The chemical sector showed strength, particularly in phosphate and pesticide areas, with several companies reaching the daily limit [8] Future Outlook - Industrial securities predict that A-shares are entering a high-probability window, with expectations for a new upward trend post-holiday [10] - Dongwu Securities suggests that historical "Spring Festival effect" indicates a potential recovery in trading volume and price, supported by favorable global market conditions [11] - Huaxi Securities expresses optimism for a "red envelope market" post-holiday, driven by external uncertainties and strong performance in technology sectors during the holiday [12] - Guotou Securities highlights the likelihood of a resurgence in technology stocks post-holiday, supported by stable global equity markets and significant domestic catalysts in robotics and AI [13]

ETF午间收盘涨跌不一，油气ETF博时（ 561760）领涨7.88%，油气ETF银华（ 563150）涨7.32%，标普 油气ETF（ 513350）涨7.27%，影视ETF（ 516620）领跌6.71%，影视ETF（159855）跌6.58%，游戏 ETF华泰柏瑞（ 516770）跌4.45%。 ...

（原标题：A股午评：三大指数均涨超1%，超4200股上涨！油气、黄金及化工板块领涨） A股马年首个交易日迎来开门红！三大指数集体上涨，沪指涨1.17%报4129.78点，深证成指涨1.82%， 创业板指涨1.76%。沪深京三市半日成交额15210亿元，较上日放量3074亿元，全市场超4200只个股上 涨。盘面上，地缘冲突、美国关税政策不确定性再度引发市场担忧，油气、黄金、有色金属、化工板块 涨幅居前，影视院线股集体调整。(格隆汇) ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant performance of the oil and gas ETF, Huatai Fu (159309), which rose by 7.21% to 1.472 yuan with a trading volume of 79.2584 million yuan as of the midday close [1] - Major holdings in the oil and gas ETF include China National Petroleum Corporation, which increased by 5.88%, China National Offshore Oil Corporation by 8.20%, and Sinopec by 3.45% [1] - The ETF's performance benchmark is the CSI Oil and Gas Resource Index return rate, managed by Huatai Fund Management Co., Ltd., with a return of 36.67% since its inception on May 31, 2024, and a return of 10.97% over the past month [1]

内容提要 2025年以来俄罗斯卢布兑美元大幅升值。在油价持续低迷且俄罗斯经济增长疲软的背景下，卢布升值的原因，一是俄通过增加非油气出口、资本管制等改善 了经常账户与资本账户平衡；二是俄紧缩货币政策、外汇市场干预等也支撑了卢布汇率。卢布升值对俄联邦财政收入和企业经营造成负面影响，进而削弱了 俄经济增长动能，降低了俄资产的吸引力。我国需关注强卢布可能给哈萨克斯坦等中亚国家带来的输入性通胀等外溢影响，并警惕其他新兴市场国家类似的 汇率波动风险。 一、卢布大幅升值、锚定油价逻辑失灵 一是俄罗斯外债下降，购汇偿债需求低。2020至2024年，俄国家外债占GDP比重从3.9%下降至2.6%。2025年前三季度俄国家外债进一步下降13%，至4.6万 亿卢布。而且俄罗斯政府以卢布替代外币偿还对非友好国家债务，并允许和鼓励俄罗斯企业以卢布债券替代此前发行的欧洲债券，俄罗斯政府和企业购汇偿 债的需求均下降。 俄罗斯卢布曾长期被视作"石油货币"，其币值与油价高度正相关，这主要是由于石油、天然气等长期是俄罗斯主要的出口产品，是俄罗斯外汇储备和财政收 入的最主要来源。但2025年以来，俄卢布汇率与油价走势大幅背离，卢布兑美元汇率较年初 ...

2026年2月24日早盘，A股油气股开盘领涨，截至10:48，石油天然气ETF(159588)上涨6.11%。成分股潜 能恒信上涨19.22%，中油工程、蓝焰控股10cm涨停，招商轮船，中曼石油等个股跟涨。 方正证券分析认为，本轮上涨由"强现实+强预期+新格局"三重驱动：基本面层面，美洲与中东增产共 振、委内瑞拉转向合规市场持续释放吨海里增量；此外，美伊紧张局势推升霍尔木兹海峡风险溢价；运 力结构层面，Sinokor控制近150艘VLCC，占主流合规运力37%，头部集中度提升显著增强议价能力。 石油天然气ETF(159588)紧密跟踪国证石油天然气指数，国证石油天然气指数反映沪深北交易所石油天 然气产业相关上市公司的证券价格变化情况。前十大权重股分别为中国石油、中国海油、中国石化、杰 瑞股份、广汇能源、招商轮船、中远海能、洲际油气、九丰能源、新奥股份，前十大权重股合计占比 66.76%。场外联接(A：021822；C：021823)。 ...

2月24日早盘，三大指数高开回落后再度走高，资金在激烈博弈中重塑板块格局。截至10:20，油气、有 色金属等板块显著领涨；影视院线、AI应用方向走弱。机器人概念小幅高开后震荡回落。 资料显示，机器人ETF基金（562360）跟踪中证机器人指数，该指数选取系统方案商、数字化车间与生 产线系统集成商、自动化设备制造商、自动化零部件商以及其他机器人相关上市公司证券作为指数样 本，以反映上市公司中机器人相关证券的整体表现。投资者可以通过该产品一键布局机器人全产业链。 相关ETF中，机器人ETF基金（562360）盘初最高涨超2.7%后回落，最新跌幅约0.43%。开盘1小时，成 交额已超过上一交易日全天大半。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 消息面上，外交部发言人2月23日宣布，德国总理默茨将于25日至26日应邀对中国进行正式访问。根据 德国总理府网站公布的访华行程，默茨将前往杭州，访问中国机器人企业宇树科技以及德国企业西门子 能源。 华西证券认为，随着AI技术突破和国内外政策支持，机器人量产时点临近。在降本需求的驱动下，人 形机器人核心零部件的国产替代需求凸显，持续看好后续在精密传动件、电子皮肤等核心环节具备卡位 优势的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for deepening reforms in the energy sector to adapt to a new energy system, focusing on high-quality development, safety, and low-carbon transition amidst complex international energy dynamics [1][5]. Group 1: Achievements in Energy Reform - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period has seen significant progress in energy system reforms, enhancing development momentum and optimizing resource allocation through policy measures [2]. - The energy market structure has improved, with nearly 80% of electricity prices determined by market competition and over 970,000 registered electricity market entities [2]. - The establishment of a unified national energy market is underway, with a preliminary national electricity market and a developing oil and gas market structure [3]. Group 2: Future Directions for Energy Reform - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to address systemic barriers in energy supply, consumption, and market mechanisms to achieve carbon peak and build a new energy system by 2030 [5][6]. - There is a need to accelerate the establishment of mechanisms for green transformation in energy supply, focusing on increasing renewable energy capacity and improving the flexibility of energy systems [6]. - Enhancing the resilience and safety of energy systems is crucial, requiring a shift from traditional energy balance methods to more flexible and collaborative approaches [8]. Group 3: Proposed Measures for Energy Reform - A resilient energy supply mechanism should be developed, integrating renewable and fossil energy sources while enhancing the capacity for resource optimization [9]. - A green consumption guidance mechanism is necessary to promote sustainable energy use, including the establishment of a green energy consumption incentive system [10]. - The market and pricing mechanisms must adapt to the new energy system, ensuring that prices reflect supply and demand dynamics and facilitating efficient resource allocation [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for deepening reforms in the energy sector to adapt to a new energy system, focusing on high-quality development, safety, and low-carbon transition amidst complex international energy dynamics and geopolitical conflicts [2]. Group 1: Achievements in Energy Reform - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period has seen significant progress in energy system reforms, enhancing development momentum and achieving high-quality energy development through a combination of policies [4]. - The energy market structure has been improved, with nearly 80% of electricity prices determined by market competition and over 970,000 registered electricity market entities [4]. - The establishment of a unified national energy market system is underway, with a preliminary national electricity market and a developing oil and gas market structure [5]. Group 2: Challenges Ahead - The next five years are critical for achieving carbon peak goals and accelerating the construction of a new energy system, requiring the resolution of four key systemic obstacles [8]. - The need for a green transition in energy supply mechanisms is urgent, with a target of 3.6 billion kilowatts of new energy capacity by 2035, necessitating a shift towards renewable energy while managing fossil fuel phase-out [9]. - The energy consumption side requires enhanced mechanisms to stimulate flexibility and innovation, as new business models and green energy consumption patterns emerge [10]. Group 3: Strategic Measures for Reform - The article outlines strategic measures to strengthen energy supply resilience, emphasizing the importance of integrating renewable and fossil energy sources and enhancing the operational capacity of energy systems [13]. - A green consumption guidance mechanism is proposed to promote sustainable energy use, including the establishment of a green energy consumption incentive system and the expansion of green certificate markets [14]. - The development of market and pricing mechanisms that reflect supply and demand dynamics is crucial, alongside the establishment of a modern energy governance system to ensure regulatory effectiveness and international cooperation [15].