Core Insights - Bioethanol is a renewable energy produced from biomass, playing a significant role in transportation and industry due to its environmental benefits, diverse raw materials, policy support, and continuous technological innovation [1][3][7] - The industry is transitioning from food-based to non-food raw materials, focusing on carbon neutrality and high-end applications, supported by a series of national policies [1][7][19] Industry Overview - Bioethanol is produced through fermentation and distillation, primarily used as a gasoline additive or alternative fuel [2][3] - The core advantages of bioethanol include its environmental benefits, diverse raw materials, policy support, and ongoing technological innovations [3][5] Policy Analysis - The Chinese government has introduced several policies to support the bioethanol industry, emphasizing its role in energy transition and carbon reduction [7][9] - Key policies include the "14th Five-Year Plan for Bioeconomic Development" and the "14th Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development," which provide strong support for high-quality development in the bioethanol sector [7][9] Industry Chain - The bioethanol industry chain in China includes upstream raw materials (corn, cassava, straw), midstream production processes, and downstream applications [10][12] - Fuel ethanol accounts for over 70% of downstream demand, primarily used in transportation, while industrial and medical ethanol also contribute to the market [10][12] Current Development Status - China is the fifth-largest bioethanol producer globally, with a projected production of 10.41 million tons in 2024 [17] - The industry faces challenges from the promotion of E10 gasoline and the increasing market share of coal-based ethanol, which may limit growth in traditional bioethanol production [17][19] Competitive Landscape - The bioethanol industry in China is characterized by an "oligopoly with coexistence of small and medium enterprises" [19] - Leading companies include Guotou Bio, COFCO Technology, and Hongzhan Distillery, with Guotou Bio holding approximately 29% market share [19] Development Trends - The industry is moving towards non-food raw materials, high-end applications, and integrated layouts, with cellulose ethanol technology breakthroughs driving down costs [21][23] - The demand for aviation biofuels and bio-based materials is expected to grow significantly, with annual growth rates exceeding 30% in high-end markets [21][23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [11]. Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, China's total exports of HVO and SAF reached 338,400 tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.06%, with domestic SAF export channels successfully opened [2][6]. - Biodiesel exports fell to 381,000 tons, a decrease of 42.4% year-on-year, primarily due to anti-dumping tariffs [7][17]. - UCO exports totaled 1,262,000 tons, down 10.5% year-on-year, with Singapore replacing the U.S. as the largest export destination [8][31]. - The report suggests monitoring overseas policies and demand changes, anticipating more supportive domestic policies to be implemented [9][43]. Summary by Sections SAF & HVO - In H1 2025, China's SAF export channels were successfully opened, with a total export volume of 338,400 tons, marking an 8.06% increase year-on-year. Jiangsu Province exported 14,900 tons of SAF to Belgium and Spain in June, likely from the Jiaao Environmental Lianyungang factory [6][16]. - Domestic SAF exports require approval from four government departments, and Jiaao Environmental received a license for 372,400 tons of bio-jet fuel, indicating a positive trend for future SAF exports [6][16]. Biodiesel - Biodiesel exports in H1 2025 were 381,000 tons, down 42.4% year-on-year, mainly due to anti-dumping tariffs imposed by the EU [7][17]. - Major export partners included Malaysia (141,000 tons), Singapore (98,700 tons), and the Netherlands (70,000 tons), with significant increases in exports to Malaysia and Singapore, likely for blending with marine fuel [7][22]. - The average export price for biodiesel was $1,103 per ton, a slight increase of 2.0% year-on-year, while total export value dropped by 40.6% to $3.02 billion [17]. UCO - UCO exports in H1 2025 were 1,262,000 tons, a decrease of 10.5% year-on-year, attributed to increased domestic SAF production and the cancellation of export tax rebates [8][29]. - The average export price for UCO was $1,048 per ton, up 17.9% year-on-year, driven by the EU's mandatory blending policy for SAF [8][29]. - Singapore became the largest export destination for UCO, with exports to the U.S. declining significantly due to high tariffs [31][35]. Market Outlook - The report emphasizes the need to track overseas policy changes and anticipates more domestic supportive policies to be implemented [9][43]. - The U.S. market faces significant uncertainty due to fluctuating tariff policies, while the EU's blending ratio requirements for SAF are expected to boost China's SAF industry [43]. - In Singapore, the demand for clean alternative fuels is projected to increase due to new carbon quota regulations for the shipping industry [43]. Investment Recommendations - The industry is viewed positively due to its reliance on waste oils as raw materials, with several companies producing qualified SAF and obtaining airworthiness certification. The report recommends focusing on raw material suppliers and processing companies like Zhuoyue New Energy [9][47].

【公司层面】卓越新能是国内第一家专业从事废油脂制取生物柴油技术研发生产的企业，也是国内酯基 生物柴油生产龙头企业。我们认为当下时点公司具备投资价值，主要有3 点原因：1）业绩表现长期行 业领先，并且在极端关税政策背景下仍保持盈利：基于公司优秀的成本管控能力、上游供应商管理和下 游销售渠道拓展能力，公司盈利能力和抗风险能力均优于同行，在2023-2024 年欧盟反倾销调查最为严 峻的时刻，公司仍然未出现亏损。且在产能扩张计划下，未来业绩增长潜力较大。2）海内外产能持续 扩张：目前公司拥有酯基产能近50 万吨，我们预计生物柴油能够扩产到近130 万吨（包括酯基国内近50 万吨+新加坡20 万吨+泰国30 万吨，烃基国内20 万吨+泰国10 万吨），为公司收入和利润增长带来显著 贡献。3）外部负面影响落地且逐步削弱：公司受欧盟反倾销税的负面影响好于预期，公司通过荷兰子 公司直销保障生物柴油销售量和价格稳定，且通过保税形式能较大程度规避负面影响。长期看，公司受 外部负面影响正在削弱，新加坡、泰国以及中东等海外生物柴油基地建设和国内生物航煤产线将为公司 提供更大基数的非税销售来源。 股价催化剂：海内外新产能投产；原料油 ...

Company Overview -卓越新能 is the first domestic company specializing in the research and production of biodiesel from waste oils, and it is a leading enterprise in ester-based biodiesel production in China [2][3] - The company has maintained profitability despite extreme tariff policies, showcasing superior cost control, supplier management, and sales channel expansion capabilities [2][3] - The company currently has ester-based production capacity of nearly 500,000 tons, with plans to expand biodiesel production to approximately 1.3 million tons [2][3] Industry Outlook - The biodiesel industry has significant growth potential, driven by domestic and international policy support, with the EU being the largest consumer of biodiesel globally [3] - The demand for biodiesel is expected to increase as carbon pricing and marginal cost improvements create profitability opportunities [3] - The company can mitigate the impact of EU anti-dumping duties by exporting to high-demand regions outside the EU and establishing production facilities in non-tax regions [3] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 4.807 billion, 7.304 billion, and 8.529 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 34.9%, 51.9%, and 16.8% respectively [4] - Net profits for the same period are expected to be 360 million, 619 million, and 774 million yuan, with growth rates of 141.6%, 71.8%, and 25.2% respectively [4] - The estimated EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.00, 5.15, and 6.45 yuan per share, with corresponding PE ratios of 15.37, 8.95, and 7.15 [4] Catalysts for Stock Price - New production capacity coming online both domestically and internationally [5] - Decrease in raw material costs [5] - Acceleration of demand growth driven by domestic policies [5]

Core Viewpoint - Indonesia will implement a mandatory 50% palm oil-based biodiesel blending policy (B50) starting in 2026, although the policy is still under research and testing, which may delay its launch until later in the year [1] Group 1: Policy Implementation - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources reiterated the B50 blending policy, which is expected to increase biodiesel demand significantly [1] - The Indonesian Biodiesel Producers Association (APROBI) predicts that B50 will raise annual biodiesel demand from 15.6 million kiloliters to approximately 19 million kiloliters [1] - The Ministry estimates that around 19.7 million kiloliters of biodiesel will be needed to implement B50, necessitating the establishment of new production facilities [1] Group 2: Current Status and Future Goals - Indonesia currently enforces a B40 blending policy, with a consumption target of 13.5 million kiloliters for the year [1] - From January to June this year, B40 consumption reached 6.8 million kiloliters [1] - Critics warn that without stronger safeguards and clear planning, the implementation of B50 in 2026 could pose significant environmental and economic risks [1]

Group 1 - Sustainable fuels are a global hotspot, with China's National Energy Administration launching initiatives for green liquid fuel technology and industrialization trials, focusing on SAF, sustainable diesel, bioethanol, green methanol, and green ammonia [2] - The first batch of pilot projects includes nine companies working on fuel ethanol, green methanol, and green ammonia, with notable projects such as 30,000 tons of cellulose fuel ethanol by Guotou Bio and 500,000 tons of green methanol by Goldwind Green Energy [2] - Internationally, companies like LG Chem and Mitsubishi Chemical are also making significant moves in sustainable fuel technologies [3] Group 2 - Mitsubishi Chemical's venture capital arm, Diamond Edge Ventures, invested in Licella Holdings, which specializes in advanced recycling and renewable fuel technologies [4] - Licella's technology can produce SAF, bio-crude oil, and renewable diesel from lignocellulosic waste using supercritical water [5] - Mitsubishi Chemical aims to expand its chemical recycling facilities and diversify raw materials as part of its "KAITEKI Vision 35" [6] Group 3 - LG Chem's subsidiary, LG-Eni BioRefining, has begun construction of South Korea's first HVO plant, expected to produce 300,000 tons annually by 2027 [7] - HVO is a new generation bio-oil made from waste cooking oils and can be used for SAF, biodiesel, and bio-naphtha production [8] - LG Chem plans to increase the proportion of bio-naphtha in its BCB products, which are certified by ISCC PLUS for environmental sustainability [9] Group 4 - The fourth Synthetic Biology and Green Bio-Manufacturing Conference (SynBioCon 2025) will be held in Ningbo, Zhejiang, focusing on AI in bio-manufacturing, green chemicals, new materials, future food, and agriculture [12] - The conference aims to explore trends in bio-manufacturing during the 14th Five-Year Plan and promote technology transfer and talent acquisition [12][20] - Various activities, including forums and workshops, will take place during the conference to facilitate discussions on innovations in the bio-manufacturing sector [12][29]

Core Viewpoint - The Andersons, Inc. has invested approximately $425 million to acquire the remaining stake in its joint venture with Marathon Petroleum, significantly increasing its investment in the biofuel ethanol sector and doubling its renewable fuel assets [1][2][3] Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition includes four ethanol plants located in the Midwest, allowing The Andersons to achieve full control over its supply chain from corn procurement to ethanol processing and export logistics [2][3] - This move is part of The Andersons' broader expansion strategy, which also includes plans to build a new large trading port in Houston [1][2] Group 2: Market Context and Implications - The acquisition aligns with the U.S. government's increased biofuel blending mandates and the potential restrictions on ethanol imports, positioning The Andersons to meet rising demand [2][3] - The company aims to leverage its integrated operations to optimize the grain-fuel-feed loop, enhancing its ability to manage raw material volatility and improve profitability [2][3] Group 3: Future Growth Opportunities - The transaction is expected to open new growth avenues in carbon credit trading, overseas exports, and policy incentives, transforming The Andersons from a traditional grain trader into a comprehensive renewable energy agricultural giant [3] - The company has signed a long-term lease at the Houston port to expand its grain and biofuel shipping capabilities, targeting an export volume exceeding 2 million tons [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The Andersons, Inc. has acquired the remaining stake in its joint venture with Marathon Petroleum for approximately $425 million, significantly increasing its investment in the biofuel sector and doubling its renewable fuel assets [1][2][3] Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition includes four ethanol plants in the Midwest, allowing The Andersons to achieve full integration from grain procurement to ethanol processing and export logistics [2][3] - This move is part of the company's broader expansion strategy, which includes plans to build a new large trading port in Houston [1][2] Group 2: Market Context and Implications - The joint venture was established in 2019 amid a surplus of grain supply due to trade disputes affecting U.S. agricultural exports [1] - The U.S. government, under Trump's administration, has increased the biofuel blending quotas, which is expected to drive additional demand for biofuels [2][3] - The Andersons aims to leverage its grain sourcing capabilities to reduce raw material volatility and optimize the grain-fuel-feed supply chain [2][3] Group 3: Future Growth Opportunities - The acquisition positions The Andersons to capitalize on carbon credit opportunities, overseas exports, and policy incentives in the renewable fuel sector [2] - The company has signed a long-term lease at the Houston port to expand its grain and biofuel shipping capabilities, targeting over 2 million tons in exports [2][3] - The transaction is seen as a critical step in transforming The Andersons from a traditional grain merchant into a comprehensive renewable energy agricultural giant [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Andersons, Inc. has acquired the remaining stake in its joint venture with Marathon Petroleum for approximately $425 million, significantly increasing its investment in the biofuel sector and doubling its renewable fuel assets [1][2][3] Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition includes four ethanol plants in the Midwest, allowing The Andersons to achieve vertical integration from corn procurement to ethanol processing and export logistics [2][3] - This move is part of The Andersons' expansion strategy, which also includes plans to build a new large trading port in Houston [1][2] Group 2: Market Context and Implications - The acquisition aligns with the U.S. government's increased biofuel blending quotas under the Trump administration, which aims to enhance domestic biofuel production despite new tariff policies threatening agricultural exports [1][2] - The Andersons is positioned to optimize its supply chain by directly supplying its own grain to the plants, reducing raw material volatility, and enabling one-stop sales of by-products to global customers [2][3] Group 3: Future Growth Opportunities - The company has signed a long-term lease at the Houston port to expand its grain and biofuel shipping capabilities, targeting an export volume exceeding 2 million tons [2] - The acquisition is expected to facilitate The Andersons' entry into the sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) supply network, capitalizing on the growing demand for low-carbon fuels [3]

Group 1: SAF Market Insights - The prices of SAF in the EU and China as of July 30 are $2,023 and $1,850 per ton, reflecting increases of 10% and 3% respectively since the beginning of 2025 [2][3] - The European Commission has approved a €36 million aid program to encourage airlines in Denmark to use SAF on domestic routes, marking the first national aid plan aimed at promoting SAF [2][3] - Starting March 19, all domestic flights from Beijing Daxing, Chengdu Shuangliu, Zhengzhou Xinzheng, and Ningbo Lishe airports will regularly mix 1% SAF, with plans for a broader pilot program at provincial capital airports in the third quarter [2][3] Group 2: UCO Market Dynamics - As of July 30, the price of UCO (Used Cooking Oil) is at 7,050 RMB per ton, the highest since 2024, driven by increased demand from SAF and HVO (Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil) [3] - The demand for HVO is expected to rise significantly, with projections indicating a potential increase of 1.5 million tons in Germany by 2026, nearly quadrupling the 2025 levels [3] - The prices of carbon credits in California and EU carbon permits have been rising since July, further enhancing the value of UCO [3] Group 3: Biodiesel Developments - The FOB prices for first and second-generation biodiesel in China are $1,155 and $1,675 per ton, showing increases of 10% and 9% respectively since the beginning of 2025 [4] - The European Commission has stated that there is insufficient evidence to confirm fraud in biodiesel imports from China [4] - The successful refueling of the "Yuzhan" vessel with B24 biofuel in Singapore indicates a new trend towards low-carbon applications in small vessels, with significant potential demand for biofuels in the future [4] Group 4: Beneficiary Companies - Shandong Hi-Speed Energy (000803) plans to increase waste processing capacity from 5,490 tons/day to 8,000-10,000 tons/day, which is expected to double UCO production [5] - China Aviation Oil intends to invest 260 million RMB in Lianyungang Jiaao to gain a 10% stake, aiding the company in capturing domestic SAF market share [5] - Excellent New Energy (688196.SH) is planning significant biodiesel and SAF production capacities in Thailand, Singapore, and ongoing projects in Saudi Arabia [5]