长江商报消息 ●长江商报公益记者 杨蝶 牧原股份表示，此次捐赠是公司根据自身盈利能力及财务状况进行的合理安排，是公司积极履行社会责任、回馈 社会的重要表现。 长江商报公益记者注意到，这是牧原股份时隔不到两个月作出的第二次捐赠，此前的10月30日晚间，公司曾宣 布，为积极履行社会责任，资助公益教育、科研事业的建设及发展，已自愿向杭州市西湖教育基金会捐赠1亿元， 其中6000万元留于杭州市西湖教育基金会用于资助西湖大学人才建设、学科建设、基础建设、学生培养、学术交 流、科研与其他人员薪酬奖励补助以及与动物营养、智慧农业、生命健康、畜牧生产与智慧兽医等相关研究领域 的发展；4000万元用于资助西湖大学参与支持共建的南阳市西湖牧原合成生物研究院的建设及发展。 除了近期这两大善举外，近年来，牧原股份坚持将企业发展与所在地可持续发展深度融合，慈善版图持续扩张。 在2024年度环境、社会及公司治理（ESG）报告中，牧原股份介绍，助农增收方面，公司根据农民需求派遣专业 人员深入田间，帮助农户翻耕旋耕土地、播种种植、一喷三防、提供农机、除草捆草、秸秆离田、抗旱排涝等， 指导种植技术和作物管理，提升农作物产量与质量，推动农业现代 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 in Beijing objectively analyzed the development situation of the Chinese economy, addressing various concerns regarding consumption, investment, real estate, corporate accounts, and market competition order. The policy direction for next year is "stability while seeking progress, improving quality and efficiency" [2][14]. Macro: Responding to Concerns, Improving Quality and Efficiency - The conference highlighted the importance of domestic demand as a primary task, emphasizing the implementation of special actions to boost consumption and the expansion of quality goods and services supply. It also aims to eliminate unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector to unleash service consumption potential [5][6]. - On the demand side, the conference proposed a plan to increase urban and rural residents' income and optimize the implementation of "two new" policies, which may involve increasing social security spending to enhance disposable income and promote consumption growth [6][9]. - Government investment is expected to lead the way in stabilizing investment, with a focus on increasing central budget investment and optimizing the use of local government special bonds to alleviate financial pressures [6][9]. - The conference emphasized the need to actively and prudently resolve risks in key areas, particularly in the real estate sector, where it aims to stabilize the market and improve residents' purchasing power [7][9]. Strategies: Balancing Growth and Reform - The conference reiterated the need for a proactive fiscal policy while maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and total debt levels. It aims to optimize fiscal spending and strengthen fiscal management [10][23]. - Monetary policy is expected to remain moderately loose, with a focus on promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery. The use of various policy tools, including interest rate cuts, is anticipated to be more flexible and efficient [11][24]. - The conference stressed the importance of innovation-driven development, with measures to enhance the role of enterprises in innovation and promote high-quality development of key industrial chains [12][16]. Real Estate: Focus on Supply Issues - The conference underscored the need to stabilize the real estate market, advocating for measures to control new supply, reduce inventory, and improve supply quality. It encourages the acquisition of existing homes for affordable housing [29][30]. - The emphasis on resolving inventory issues reflects a heightened focus on the real estate sector's challenges, particularly in light of the ongoing supply-demand imbalance [29][30]. Consumption: Continuous Policy Support - The conference prioritized domestic demand, reiterating the importance of consumption in driving economic growth. It plans to implement measures to enhance residents' income and stabilize employment for key groups [38]. - Policies aimed at boosting consumer confidence and spending are expected to continue, with a focus on increasing the quality and availability of goods and services [38].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable investment outlook for the pig farming industry, with expectations of gradual price recovery in the latter half of 2026 after a period of low profitability and cash flow challenges [2][25]. Core Insights - The pig farming industry in China is experiencing a prolonged "pig cycle" with increasing scale among enterprises and farmers, leading to enhanced resilience during downturns. Despite a slight decrease in the breeding sow inventory by the end of September 2025, supply remains within a reasonable range, with expectations of a relaxed supply-demand balance in the first half of 2026, potentially putting pressure on prices [2][25]. - The industry has seen a rise in concentration due to policy drivers and the impact of African swine fever, although it still remains at a relatively low level, contributing to significant cyclical volatility [4][5]. - The report highlights that the pig price fluctuations are influenced by the breeding sow inventory, which serves as a leading indicator for future supply. The current inventory is at the upper limit of the reasonable control zone, suggesting a potential tightening of supply in the latter half of 2026 [5][11]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The Chinese pig farming industry is a major contributor to the livestock sector, accounting for over 50% of both production and value. The market size reached 1.51 trillion yuan in 2024 [4]. - The concentration of the industry has increased, with the top 20 companies accounting for 27.63% of the national output, yet many small farmers still exist, leading to significant fluctuations in production [4]. Production, Output, and Price Analysis - The current pig cycle began in Q2 2022, with a recovery in prices and an increase in breeding sow inventory. By September 2025, the inventory was 40.35 million, still within the reasonable control zone [5][11]. - The report notes that the output of pigs has been increasing, with 2022 and 2023 seeing outputs of 700 million and 727 million pigs respectively, but growth rates are declining [11][10]. Upstream and Feed Price Analysis - The feed industry is crucial for pig farming, with raw material costs comprising 75-80% of feed production costs. Recent trends show a decline in grain and feed prices, alleviating some cost pressures for farmers [16][18]. - The pig-to-feed price ratio is a critical indicator of profitability, with a ratio of 6.00-7.00 indicating a break-even point for farmers. The ratio has fluctuated significantly in recent years, reflecting the volatility in both pig and feed prices [19][19]. Industry Policy - The government has implemented policies to stabilize pig production and control capacity, aiming to reduce the volatility of pig prices and enhance industry concentration [21][23]. - Recent measures include a reduction in breeding sow inventory targets and stricter controls on output weights to manage supply effectively [23][24]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the pig price will gradually rise in the latter half of 2026 due to a tightening supply following a period of capacity reduction. However, challenges remain in cost control related to raw materials and disease management [25][26]. - The industry is expected to stabilize as larger, more efficient farming operations increase their market share, leading to a smoother price cycle in the future [27].

生猪行业旺季来临，但市场仍未走出"寒冬"。上市猪企11月最新披露销售数据显示，出栏量普遍实现增 长，已有猪企提前完成全年出栏任务，但行业销售均价同比跌幅近3成，行业亏损持续。 据智通财经记者不完全统计，今年上市猪企出栏量同比普遍增长，2025年1-11月前12大上市猪企累计出 栏超1.5亿头，甚至温氏股份、正邦科技已提前完成全年出栏目标。 | 上市猪企 | 2025前11个月生2 | 2025出栏目标 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 出栏量(万头) | (万头) | | | 牧原股份 | 7100. 10 | 7200-7800 | 98.61% | | 温氏股份 | 3591. 40 | 3300-3500 | 108. 83% | | 新希望 | 1573.65 | 1700.00 | 92.57% | | 大北农 | 403.60 | 800. 00 | 50. 45% | | 正邦科技 | 750. 83 | 700. 00 | 107. 26% | | 天邦食品 | 600. 11 | 650-710 | 92.32% | | 唐人神 | 483.79 | 500 ...

Market Overview - On December 11, all three major indices declined, with total market turnover reaching 1.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 93.6 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, and over 4,300 stocks fell [1] - Market hotspots focused on controllable nuclear fusion and wind power equipment sectors, while real estate and duty-free concepts weakened [1] High-Performing Stocks - Fujian local stockholder Baigroup achieved a five-day consecutive rise, while Annie Co. recorded five rises in six days, and commercial aerospace concept stock Zai Sheng Technology saw four consecutive rises [3] - Notable stocks with significant gains included: - Annie Co. (+10.03%, 13.60 yuan, six days five boards) [4] - Dongbai Group (+10.03%, 14.92 yuan, five consecutive boards) [4] - Zai Sheng Technology (+10.06%, 7.66 yuan, four consecutive boards) [4] - Goldwind Technology (+9.97%, 16.98 yuan, first board) [4] Trading Dynamics - The top three net buying stocks on the Dragon and Tiger list were Snowman Group, Goldwind Technology, and Tongguang Cable, with net purchases of 325 million yuan, 234 million yuan, and 173 million yuan respectively [5] - The top three net selling stocks were ZTE Corporation, Teifa Information, and Shunhao Shares, with net sales of 264 million yuan, 191 million yuan, and 174 million yuan respectively [7] Sector Highlights - Snowman Group, involved in commercial aerospace and controllable nuclear fusion, saw a trading increase of 9.99% with a turnover of 2.457 billion yuan and a trading range of 9.70% [9] - Zhengbang Technology, focusing on pig farming, experienced a trading increase of 9.87% with a turnover of 2.16 billion yuan and a trading range of 10.58% [14] Institutional Activity - Institutional net buying was significant for ZTE Corporation, with a net purchase of 632 million yuan, while net selling was observed for Teifa Information at 175 million yuan [8][9] - The net buying activity for Goldwind Technology reached 686 million yuan, indicating strong institutional interest [21]

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： HindSight后视镜 来源：雪球 这一轮生猪下行周期之所以如此漫长而纠结，是因为有很多历史上没遇到过的新情况。 第一个是下行周期同步伴随生产效率的上行周期。这是历史上几乎没遇到过的。 原因很好理解。突如其来的非瘟把中国生猪养殖的效率几乎一夜拉回"解放前"。连牧原这样的优等生，养殖成本也一度在15元以上。 而非瘟后，在中国养殖行业同仁的共同努力下，生产效率已经基本回到非瘟前。以牧原为代表的优等生甚至已经远远好于非瘟前。 这是巨大的好事。但这也打消了中间能繁去化的表观效果。从2021年最高点计算，能繁数量的下降幅度已经有15%左右，但对应的还是十年来最 低猪价，这一因素不容忽视。 但站在当下的好消息是，未来生产效率如果想进一步提高，难度是极大了。内部消息显示，领头羊牧原明年的成本下降目标也只有0.5元左右，更 不要说其他的养殖主体。所以现在的能繁下降是扎扎实实的终端产能下降。 第二个是下行周期伴随广谱物价的超级下行周期。历史上有过类似情况，比如2013-2014年的下行周期，但从 ...

Core Insights - Dekang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry has established the "Hundred Villages, Million" training base in Yibin, Sichuan, as part of the national rural revitalization strategy, focusing on modern agricultural transformation [1][2] - The training base is the first specialized practical training platform for pig farming aimed at family farm owners, covering an area of approximately 50 acres and integrating talent cultivation, technology demonstration, and industry empowerment [1] - The company aims to reduce the complete cost of commodity pigs to approximately 11.80 yuan/kg by November 2025, driven by improved production efficiency and refined management practices [1] Group 1 - The training base emphasizes a three-in-one cultivation system of "theoretical teaching + practical training + operational guidance" with a focus on talent cultivation, technical demonstration, and industry empowerment [2] - Dekang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry plans to continue its deep engagement in modern agriculture and high-end food industries, promoting an integrated planting and breeding model through a "company + family farm" approach [2] - The initiative aims to create efficient, ecological smart breeding and industry poverty alleviation demonstration models, facilitating the organic integration of farmers with modern agricultural development [2]

Core Insights - Dekang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry has established the "Hundred Villages, Million" training base in Yibin, Sichuan, as part of its response to the national rural revitalization strategy and agricultural modernization [1][2] - The training base is the first specialized practical training platform focused on pig farming for family farm owners in China, covering an area of approximately 50 acres and integrating talent cultivation, technology demonstration, and industry empowerment [1] - The company aims to reduce the complete cost of commodity pigs to approximately 11.80 yuan/kg by November 2025, driven by improved production efficiency and refined management practices [1] Group 1 - The training base emphasizes a three-in-one cultivation system of "theoretical teaching + practical training + operational guidance" with a focus on talent cultivation, technical demonstration, and industry empowerment [2] - Dekang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry plans to deepen its involvement in modern agriculture and high-end food industries through an integrated planting and breeding model, promoting efficient and ecological smart farming [2] - The company aims to create exemplary models for industry poverty alleviation by combining family farms with modern agricultural development [2]

Core Viewpoint - Muyuan Foods is one step away from achieving its "A+H" stock layout after passing the Hong Kong Stock Exchange hearing, despite facing challenges in the pork market and significant debt levels [1][4]. Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, Muyuan Foods reported a revenue increase of 34.46% but a staggering net profit growth of 1169.77%, reaching 10.53 billion yuan [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 111.79 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 15.52%, and a net profit of 14.779 billion yuan, reflecting a 41.01% increase [1]. - The average selling price of pork decreased by 5.6% to 15.2 yuan/kg in the first half of the year, marking the lowest price level during the reporting period [2]. Dividend Distribution - Muyuan Foods distributed over 5 billion yuan in dividends to shareholders, marking it as one of the most generous dividend distributions in the pork industry this year [1][2]. - Over the past year, the company has distributed more than 12.5 billion yuan in dividends, with the largest shareholder, Qin Yinglin, set to receive approximately 4.921 billion yuan from these distributions [3]. Debt Levels - As of June 30, Muyuan Foods had a debt ratio of 56.06%, with total liabilities amounting to 104.52 billion yuan [3]. - By the end of September, the debt ratio decreased to 55.5%, with total liabilities reduced by approximately 9.8 billion yuan since the beginning of the year [3]. Market Conditions - The average price of live pigs in early December fell to 12.21 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decline of 27.8%, while the average price of piglets dropped to 23.71 yuan/kg, down 29.6% year-on-year [2]. - The company’s slaughter volume reached 11.415 million heads in the first half of the year, representing a 10.8% increase compared to the same period last year [2]. Expansion Plans - Muyuan Foods is exploring overseas markets, having signed a cooperation agreement with BAF Vietnam Agricultural Joint Stock Company to build and operate livestock farming projects in Vietnam [4]. - The management believes that replicating its technology and production systems in overseas markets will yield good profits, with future capital expenditures expected to be lower than domestic levels [4].

金融期货早评 宏观：美联储如期降息 【市场资讯】1）中国 11 月 CPI 同比上涨 0.7%，创 2024 年 3 月来最高，PPI 同比降幅略有 扩大。2）房地产板块午盘大涨，万科展期债券讨论与市场对"房贷贴息"政策预期成为情绪 核心驱动。3）美联储如期再降息 25 基点，但三票委反对，仍预计明年降息一次，将买短 债 400 亿美元；鲍威尔：购债规模未来几个月或维持在较高水平，劳动力市场逐步降温但 慢于预期，目前利率下能耐心等待，关税影响明年料逐渐消退。新美联储通讯社：美联储 暗示暂停降息行动；新债王：今天或是鲍威尔任内最后一次。4）特朗普要搞"美联储主席 最终面试"，哈塞特尚未"板上钉钉"，贝森特仍有望后续接任。哈塞特：特朗普未来 1-2 周 对美联储主席人选做最终决定，重申美联储还有很大的降息空间。5）美国就业成本涨幅创 逾四年新低，通胀压力缓和。6）全球长债收益率飙升至 16 年新高，市场押注全球降息周 期即将终结。 【核心逻辑】海外市场聚焦美联储政策动向，下一任主席人选敲定预期升温，哈塞特当选 概率较高。市场预判其上任后或推动更激进降息，但受鲍威尔任期、经济及通胀等因素制 约，降息落地存在不确定性 ...