铅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2025年11月23日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 铅：再生供应增加，且炒作题材弱化，价格偏弱震荡 强弱分析：中性，价格区间：16900-17400元/吨 沪铅12合约持仓库存比处于历史同期低位 0 5 10 15 20 25 01-02 01-12 01-22 02-05 02-19 03-03 03-14 03-26 04-08 04-19 05-05 05-16 05-28 06-09 06-20 07-02 07-14 07-25 08-06 08-18 08-29 09-10 09-23 10-09 10-21 11-01 11-13 11-25 12-06 12-18 12-30 万吨 五地总库存 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 25 pb2412.shf pb2508.s ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints - The supply of lead ingots is relatively abundant. After the departure of the previous main long - position holders, the lead price is still oscillating within a wide range. Given the recent weak performance of major global financial assets, the lead price is expected to be weak in the short term [11] Summaries by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment - **Price Review**: On Friday, the Shanghai Lead Index closed down 0.31% at 17,165 yuan/ton, with a total single - sided trading position of 75,300 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday afternoon, LME Lead 3S fell 17.5 to 1,997.5 dollars/ton compared to the same period of the previous day, with a total position of 159,600 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 17,075 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 17,050 yuan/ton, the refined - scrap price difference was 25 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,975 yuan/ton [11] - **Domestic Structure**: According to Steel Union data, domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 36,400 tons. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 30,000 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 90 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - continued contract was - 5 yuan/ton. **Overseas Structure**: LME lead ingot inventory was 264,700 tons, and LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 85,700 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - 28.91 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 85.3 dollars/ton. **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.21, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 10.51 yuan/ton [11] - **Industrial Data**: At the primary end, lead concentrate port inventory was 40,000 tons, factory inventory was 450,000 tons, equivalent to 30.2 days. The import TC of lead concentrate was - 135 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC of lead concentrate was 300 yuan/metal ton. The primary smelting start - up rate was 67.70%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 6,000 tons. At the recycled end, lead waste inventory was 103,000 tons, the weekly output of recycled lead ingots was 45,000 tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 6,000 tons. At the demand end, the lead - acid battery start - up rate was 70.56% [11] 2. Primary Supply - **Imports and Production**: In October 2025, the net import of lead concentrate was 98,300 physical tons, a year - on - year change of - 39.7% and a month - on - month change of - 34.6%. From January to October, the cumulative net import of lead concentrate was 1,167,300 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 14.0%. In October 2025, the net import of silver concentrate was 149,400 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 11.4% and a month - on - month change of - 7.0%. From January to October, the cumulative net import of silver concentrate was 1,507,900 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 5.4%. In October 2025, China's lead concentrate production was 146,200 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 10.6% and a month - on - month change of - 3.4%. From January to October, the total production of lead concentrate was 1,395,300 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 11.4%. In October 2025, the net import of lead - containing ore was 118,700 metal tons, a year - on - year change of - 21.6% and a month - on - month change of - 23.2%. From January to October, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ore was 1,303,500 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 9.9% [15][17] - **Total Supply**: In October 2025, China's total lead concentrate supply was 264,900 metal tons, a year - on - year change of - 6.6% and a month - on - month change of - 13.4%. From January to October, the cumulative lead concentrate supply was 2,698,800 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.7%. In August 2025, the global lead ore production was 383,300 tons, a year - on - year change of - 1.2% and a month - on - month change of 0.5%. From January to August, the total global lead ore production was 3,008,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.1% [19] - **Inventory and Processing Fees**: At the primary end, lead concentrate port inventory was 40,000 tons, factory inventory was 450,000 tons, equivalent to 30.2 days. The import TC of lead concentrate was - 135 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC of lead concentrate was 300 yuan/metal ton [21][23] - **Smelting Start - up and Output**: The primary smelting start - up rate was 67.70%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 6,000 tons. In October 2025, China's primary lead production was 326,000 tons, a year - on - year change of 2.7% and a month - on - month change of - 0.5%. From January to October, the total production of primary lead ingots was 3,186,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 7.7% [26] 3. Recycled Supply - **Raw Material Inventory and Output**: At the recycled end, lead waste inventory was 103,000 tons. The weekly output of recycled lead ingots was 45,000 tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 6,000 tons. In October 2025, China's recycled lead production was 346,300 tons, a year - on - year change of 11.9% and a month - on - month change of 9.2%. From January to October, the total production of recycled lead ingots was 3,235,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.7% [31][33] - **Net Exports and Total Supply**: In October 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 15,100 tons, a year - on - year change of 92.6% and a month - on - month change of 21.9%. From January to October, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 95,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 43.5%. In October 2025, the total domestic lead ingot supply was 687,400 tons, a year - on - year change of 8.3% and a month - on - month change of 4.6%. From January to October, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply was 6,517,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.8% [35] 4. Demand Analysis - **Battery Demand**: At the demand end, the lead - acid battery start - up rate was 70.56%. In October 2025, the apparent domestic demand for lead ingots was 689,700 tons, a year - on - year change of 5.9% and a month - on - month change of - 4.1%. From January to October, the cumulative apparent domestic demand for lead ingots was 6,526,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.9% [40] - **Battery Exports**: In October 2025, the net export volume of batteries was 16,145,200 units, and the net export weight of batteries was 84,600 tons. It was estimated that the net export of lead in batteries was 52,900 tons, a year - on - year change of - 15.1% and a month - on - month change of - 12.8%. From January to October, the total net export of lead in batteries was 607,600 tons, and the cumulative net export of lead in batteries had a year - on - year change of - 5.0% [43] - **Inventory Changes**: In October 2025, the finished product inventory days of lead - acid batteries in factories increased from 19.7 days to 24.5 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries in dealers increased from 39.7 days to 41 days [45] - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly dragged down the new installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway drove the improvement of the new installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automotive sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles are gradually replacing lead - acid start - up batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles and the high replacement demand provide support for domestic lead ingot consumption. In the base station sector, the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations driven by the development of communication technology has led to a steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [49][51][54] 5. Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Balance**: In October 2025, the domestic lead ingot supply - demand gap was a shortage of - 2,400 tons. From January to October, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply - demand gap was a shortage of - 9,200 tons [63] - **Overseas Balance**: In August 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a shortage of - 19,400 tons. From January to August, the cumulative overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a shortage of - 46,900 tons [66] 6. Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: According to Steel Union data, domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 36,400 tons. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 30,000 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 90 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - continued contract was - 5 yuan/ton [71] - **Overseas Structure**: LME lead ingot inventory was 264,700 tons, and LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 85,700 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - 28.91 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 85.3 dollars/ton [74] - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.21, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 10.51 yuan/ton [77] - **Position Analysis**: The top 20 net positions of SHFE lead turned to a large net short position. The net long position of LME lead investment funds increased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises increased. From a position perspective, the short - term guidance is bearish [80]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-21 下游维持刚需采购 铅价难有靓丽表现 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-11-20，LME铅现货升水为-27.39美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化25元/吨至17125 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至25.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化50元/ 吨至17225元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化25元/吨至17125元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日 变化25元/吨至17125元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-25元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/ 吨至9975元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10100元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10325元/吨。 期货方面：2025-11-20，沪铅主力合约开于17300元/吨，收于17220元/吨，较前一交易日变化-30元/吨，全天交易日 成交37231手，较前一交易日变化-8977手，全天交易日持仓60285手，手较前一交易日变化-3610手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到17320元/吨，最低点达到17195元/吨 ...

专题报告 2025-11-20 铅：原料紧现货松，仍在宽幅区间内 张世骄 有色研究员 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 报告要点： 当前原生冶炼开工高位但原料紧缺，再生冶炼利润抬升推动再生铅锭放量，下游蓄企抬高电池 售价需求边际好转。国内外铅锭现货边际转松，月差回落。在国内冶炼厂冬季备库结束前，沪 铅主要矛盾仍然集中于原料端的紧缺和下游蓄企采买的抬升。近期美联储官员表态边际转鹰， 贵金属及有色金属情绪退潮，沪铅主力多头快速减仓，沪铅前 20 净持仓由多转空。铅价仍在 16300-17800 区间内呈现宽幅震荡态势，预计铅价近期自区间上沿向下偏弱运行为主。 有色金属研究 | 铅 资料来源：钢联数据、五矿期货研究中心 资料来源：SMM、五矿期货研究中心 资料来源：SMM、五矿期货研究中心 铅：原料紧现货松，仍在宽幅区间内 原生端：开工高位但原料紧缺 原生端，由于白银和硫酸价格的强势运行，冶炼副产品给原生铅冶炼厂带来了较高的收益，高 含银铅精矿格外紧俏。2025 年下半年，贵金属价格一路上行。矿山希望从白银价格上涨中分享 部分 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai lead first rose and then fell. Macroscopically, the end of the US government shutdown, hawkish remarks from Fed officials, and weak domestic economic data pressured lead prices. Fundamentally, raw material supply remained tight, and processing fees for lead concentrates were weak and stable. Environmental controls in Henan affected the recycling of waste batteries, and some holders withheld goods, increasing costs. On the smelting side, primary lead production was stable, while secondary lead supply decreased slightly. In terms of demand, the consumption of lead - acid batteries for electric bicycles entered the off - season, and enterprises mainly made rigid purchases. Overall, LME lead was technically strong, and the domestic supply was stable while demand was weak. The import window for lead ingots closed, and lead prices were expected to adjust at a high level, with limited downward space due to the strength of LME lead and low domestic inventories [3][5][6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Transaction Data - From November 7th to November 14th, SHFE lead rose from 17,420 yuan/ton to 17,495 yuan/ton, LME lead rose from 2045 dollars/ton to 2066 dollars/ton, the Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.52 to 8.47, SHFE inventory increased by 4208 tons to 42,790 tons, LME inventory increased by 18,775 tons to 222,475 tons, social inventory increased by 0.31 million tons to 3.49 million tons, and the spot premium decreased from - 175 yuan/ton to - 190 yuan/ton [4] Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai lead switched to PB2601, with a weekly increase of 0.34%. LME lead rose first and then adjusted, with a weekly increase of 1.03%. In the spot market, after the rise and fall of Shanghai lead, the willingness of holders to deliver was determined, and the enthusiasm for shipping increased. Downstream enterprises were cautious in purchasing [5] Industry News - As of the week of November 14th, the domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 300 yuan/metal ton, and the imported ore processing fee was - 135 dollars/dry ton, with both averages remaining flat month - on - month [9] Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, Shanghai - London ratio, inventory levels, spread situations, waste battery prices, enterprise profit, processing fees, output, social inventory, and import profit and loss [11][12][18][19][22][23][25]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of primary lead is increasing, while the production of recycled lead is rising rapidly due to expanding profits. Although primary lead smelting is undergoing maintenance, the overall supply is on the rise. Consumption has temporarily stabilized, with battery factory operating rates rebounding and raw material purchases increasing. The price of lead is expected to fluctuate, with a recommended range - bound trading strategy. Long - short arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets should be continued due to the increase in domestic lead inventories [3][5]. - The price range of lead is estimated to be between 17,200 - 17,700 yuan/ton, and the five - location total lead inventory has increased, though the absolute inventory remains at a historically low level compared to the same period [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Aspect - **Price and Spread** - The closing price of the main SHFE lead contract last week was 17,495 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.43%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was 17,440 yuan/ton, with a night - session decline of 0.31%. The LME lead (0 - 3) spot premium decreased from - 10.74 to - 23.09 dollars/ton. The premium for lead in the bonded area remained unchanged at 95 dollars/ton, and the spot premium for Shanghai 1 lead remained at 0 yuan/ton. The spread between recycled lead and primary lead decreased from - 50 to - 100 yuan/ton, and the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract increased from - 60 to - 50 yuan/ton [6]. - **Inventory** - SHFE lead warehouse receipts inventory increased by 9,124 tons to 31,027 tons, and the total SHFE lead inventory increased by 4,208 tons to 42,790 tons. Social inventory increased by 3,100 tons to 34,900 tons, and LME lead inventory increased by 18,775 tons to 222,475 tons, with the proportion of cancelled warrants decreasing by 7.78 percentage points to 42.17% [6]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest** - The trading volume of the main SHFE lead contract last week was 37,346 lots, an increase of 10,140 lots compared to the previous week, and the open interest was 38,417 lots, a decrease of 21,401 lots. The trading volume of LME 3 - month lead was 17,127 lots, an increase of 6,820 lots, and the open interest was 142,000 lots, an increase of 6,194 lots [6]. 3.2 Supply Aspect - **Lead Concentrate** - The import processing fee for 60% grade lead concentrate has remained at a low level. The actual consumption of lead concentrate has shown an upward trend. The profit from imported lead concentrate has increased, while the profit from domestic lead concentrate has remained stable. The operating rate of lead concentrate has shown fluctuations over the years [23][24]. - **Primary and Recycled Lead** - Primary lead production has increased, but some primary smelters in Anhui and other regions will enter the maintenance cycle. The profit of recycled lead has continued to expand, with stable prices and sufficient supply of waste batteries. Recycled lead enterprises in Anhui and Henan have continued to increase production [5]. 3.3 Demand Aspect - **Lead - Acid Batteries** - The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has rebounded, and the monthly finished - product inventory days of battery enterprises and dealers have shown certain fluctuations. The export volume of batteries has also changed over the years [42]. - **Terminal Consumption** - The actual consumption of lead has shown an upward trend. The production of automobiles and motorcycles has also shown certain changes over the years, which has an impact on the demand for lead [44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of lead products such as SMM1 lead ingots, Shanghai lead main - contract, and London lead have shown an upward trend. The lead market has both supply and demand increasing, but high lead prices suppress downstream purchasing enthusiasm. This week is the week before the delivery of the Shanghai lead 2511 contract, and some hidden inventories will become visible. There is a risk of the lead price rising and then falling. Attention should be continuously paid to the impact of raw material arrivals on refinery operations in the future [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - **Price Changes**: SMM1 lead ingot average price increased by 0.15% to 17,250 yuan/ton, Shanghai lead main - contract closing price increased by 0.17% to 17,420 yuan/ton, and London lead closing price (electronic trading) rose by 0.99% to 2,045 US dollars/ton [10]. - **Basis**: No specific analysis of the basis is provided in the text, only historical basis data charts are presented [11]. 3.2 Supply - Side Analysis - **Raw Material - Lead Concentrate**: The tight supply pattern of lead concentrate has not been alleviated, with domestic and imported lead concentrate processing fees (TC) declining. The domestic lead concentrate processing fee dropped to 350 yuan/metal ton, and the imported lead concentrate processing fee dropped to - 135 US dollars/dry ton. The refinery profit is acceptable, with a profit of 162.5 yuan/ton (excluding by - product revenues such as zinc and copper) as of October 31 [22][27]. - **Raw Material - Scrap Batteries**: As of November 7, the average price of scrap batteries was 10,025 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous period. With the continuous increase in secondary lead production, it is expected that the price of scrap batteries will rise in the future [42]. - **Primary Lead**: The primary lead operating rate increased slightly to 67.57%. The weekly production of some major smelting enterprises remained stable, while some enterprises had production changes due to maintenance or production resumption. The total weekly production is expected to increase from 49,800 tons to 50,450 tons [28][33]. - **Secondary Lead**: The secondary lead operating rate increased by 7.3 percentage points to 50.7%. The weekly production reached 5.97 tons last week. The supply of scrap batteries is relatively stable, and most refineries have sufficient raw materials, with the operating rate returning to a high level in the past six months [54]. 3.3 Demand - Side Analysis - **Battery Enterprises**: The lead - acid battery operating rate increased by 0.32 percentage points to 69.22%. Some previously maintained enterprises resumed production last week, and the lead ingot trading improved. However, due to the high lead price increasing battery costs and the general terminal consumption, dealers' inventory building is limited, and battery enterprises mainly produce according to sales [62]. 3.4 Import and Export Analysis - As of October 31, the refined lead export loss was about 3,000 yuan/ton. As of November 10, the import profit was - 418.79 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [71]. 3.5 Inventory Analysis - **Lead Ingot Inventory**: As of November 10, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five regions was 3.27 tons, and the inventory of primary lead's main delivery brand factories was 8,900 tons, showing an increase. High lead prices inhibited downstream purchasing enthusiasm, and inventory accumulated due to delivery and position transfer [81]. - **Exchange Inventory**: As of November 7, the SHFE refined lead inventory was 3.86 tons, showing an increase, and the LME inventory was 20.22 tons, showing a decrease [84]. - **Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The table shows the data of primary lead production, secondary lead production, exports, imports, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and comprehensive inventory from July 2024 to August 2025 [85].

Report Title - Lead Weekly Report: Supply Gradually Recovering, Lead Prices May Oscillate Weakly [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - With the gradual increase in the operation of domestic secondary lead smelters, the supply of domestic lead ingots may improve. On the consumption side, terminal demand is gradually weakening, and domestic lead consumption may decline. Attention should be paid to the domestic social inventory situation, and lead prices may decline as social inventory increases [4] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market and Logic 1.1 Trading Logic and Strategy - **Supply - Side**: Recently, the supply - demand of domestic lead concentrates remains in a tight balance. The processing fee of domestic lead concentrates has been reduced by 50 yuan to 300 yuan/metal ton, and the weekly processing fee of SMM imported lead concentrates has been reduced by 10 US dollars to - 135 US dollars/dry ton. Most secondary lead smelters in China have sufficient raw material inventories, and the purchase quotes for lead - containing waste materials are stable. Individual secondary lead smelters have slightly increased the purchase price of waste batteries. It is expected that as the operation of secondary lead smelting enterprises increases, the price of lead - containing waste materials may gradually rise [4] - **Smelting End**: This week, the average operating rate of SMM's three - province primary lead smelters is 67.57%, an increase of 0.4% from last week. A small - scale smelter in Henan has resumed production after maintenance and slightly increased production; a small - and medium - scale smelter in Hunan has slightly fluctuated in output due to raw material supply, and other smelters in this region maintain partial operation and have not fully resumed production; smelters in Yunnan maintain normal production this week; a smelter in North China has reduced production as scheduled for maintenance, and another smelter's maintenance plan is still scheduled for late November. A smelter in Inner Mongolia that had resumed production after maintenance but was not at full capacity has returned to normal production and still has a slight increase this week. The weekly operating rate of SMM's four - province secondary lead is 50.65%, an increase of 7.24% from last week. The operating rate of secondary lead smelters in Anhui is over 50%. The large - scale smelting enterprises under maintenance in this region have all resumed production and their output is slowly increasing. It is expected that the operating rate in this region will still rise next week. The production of enterprises in Henan and Jiangsu is relatively stable, and the regional operating rate has not changed much. Since the supply of lead ingots in the northern market is still not abundant, the sales orders of smelters in Inner Mongolia are good [4] - **Consumption End**: This week, the weekly comprehensive operating rate of SMM's five - province lead - acid battery enterprises is 69.22%, a month - on - month increase of 0.32%. Recently, affected by the rising lead prices, the production cost of lead - acid batteries has increased. To avoid accumulating high - price inventories, some medium - and large - scale enterprises plan to reduce production, stop production, or conduct equipment maintenance from the end of October to early November. The maintenance of lead - acid battery enterprises has been completed one after another this week, and a small number of enterprises have resumed normal production. In November, the demand in the automotive battery market is weak, and some enterprises have lowered their production plans for November. Therefore, the weekly operating rate of lead - acid batteries has only increased slightly this week [4] - **Inventory Data**: As of November 6, the total social inventory of SMM lead ingots in five regions has reached 31,800 tons, an increase of 1,900 tons compared to October 30 and an increase of 1,600 tons compared to November 1 [4] - **Trading Strategies**: Hold previous short positions; temporarily hold off on arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options [4] 1.2 - 1.6 - These sections list various data related to lead, including futures prices, price spreads, inventory data, and lead industry chain inventory, but no specific analysis content is provided [5][8][12][16] Chapter 2: Raw Material End 2.1 - 2.2 Raw Material Supply - Primary - These sections list data on global and domestic lead ore production, lead concentrate imports, and domestic lead concentrate supply, but no specific analysis content is provided [21][24] 2.3 Raw Material Supply - Secondary - These sections list data on the price of lead - containing waste materials, waste battery prices, and the raw material inventory of secondary lead smelters, but no specific analysis content is provided [28] Chapter 3: Smelting End 3.1 Global Refined Lead - Lists data on global refined lead balance, production, and demand, but no specific analysis content is provided [36] 3.2 Domestic Refined Lead Import and Export - Lists data on import and export profits and losses, import and export volumes, and net export volumes of domestic refined lead, but no specific analysis content is provided [43] 3.3 Primary Lead Smelting Enterprise Profits - Lists data on lead concentrate processing fees, smelting profits, sulfuric acid revenue, and silver revenue, but no specific analysis content is provided [44] 3.4 Primary Lead Supply - Lists data on the operating rate and production of primary lead smelting enterprises, but no specific analysis content is provided [47] 3.5 Secondary Lead Enterprise Costs and Profits - Lists data on the costs, comprehensive profits and losses, and production profits of secondary lead enterprises of different scales, but no specific analysis content is provided [50][54] 3.6 Secondary Lead Supply - Lists data on the operating rate, production, and output of secondary lead smelting enterprises, but no specific analysis content is provided [59] 3.7 Domestic Lead Ingot Supply - Lists data on the total supply of domestic lead ingots, primary lead production, secondary lead production, and net refined lead exports, but no specific analysis content is provided [62] Chapter 4: Demand End 4.1 Lead - Acid Batteries - Lists data on the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises, dealer inventories, export and import volumes, and enterprise inventories, but no specific analysis content is provided [69] 4.2 Lead Alloys and Their Plates - Lists data on lead alloy prices, lead alloy imports and exports, lead plate imports and exports, and other lead plate imports and exports, but no specific analysis content is provided [72] 4.3 Automobiles - Lists data on Chinese automobile production, exports, and production structure, but no specific analysis content is provided [75] 4.4 Motorcycles, Power, and Communications - Lists data on motorcycle production, communication construction volume, and power projects, but no specific analysis content is provided [78]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of primary lead is increasing, and the production of secondary lead is rapidly recovering. Consumption is temporarily stable, and the price is expected to fluctuate. The production of primary lead has increased, and secondary lead enterprises have large profits, leading to a rapid rise in production. Terminal consumption is temporarily stable, with an increase in the operating rate of battery factories and more raw material purchases. The lead price is expected to fluctuate, and short - volatility operations can be considered. With the increase in domestic lead inventory, the long domestic and short overseas arbitrage should be continued to hold [3][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Aspect: Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, and Position - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract last week was 17,420 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.17%, and the closing price of the night session yesterday was 17,490 yuan/ton, with a night - session increase of 0.40%. The closing price of LmeS - Lead 3 last week was 2,012 US dollars, with a decrease of 0.64%. The LME lead spot premium has changed from - 26.48 to - 10.74, and the spread between near - month and consecutive - one contracts has changed from - 80 to - 60 [6]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory increased by 258 to 21,903 tons, and the total Shanghai lead inventory increased by 2,583 to 38,582 tons. The social inventory increased by 2,000 to 31,800 tons, and the LME lead inventory decreased by 16,600 to 203,700 tons, with the注销仓单 ratio at 49.95% [6]. - **Transaction and Position**: The trading volume of the main Shanghai lead contract last week was 27,206 lots, a decrease of 21,113 lots compared with the previous week, and the position was 59,818 lots, a decrease of 8,366 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Lead 3 was 10,307 lots, an increase of 4,935 lots, and the position was 142,000 lots, an increase of 6,194 lots [6]. Lead Supply: Lead Concentrate, Waste Batteries, Primary Lead, and Secondary Lead - **Lead Concentrate**: The production, import volume, and actual consumption of lead concentrate in China are presented in the data, and the inventory in Lianyungang shows certain fluctuations over the years. The import and domestic treatment charges of lead concentrate have changed, and the profit of lead concentrate smelting has also fluctuated [24]. - **Primary and Secondary Lead**: The production of primary lead has increased, and the weekly operating rate has shown different trends over the years. The production of secondary lead has also increased, and the operating rate has recovered. The by - product silver output and the price of sulfuric acid in the lead - smelting process are also presented [29][30]. - **Waste Batteries and Secondary Lead**: The raw material inventory of secondary lead smelting enterprises, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries, the cost and profit of secondary lead are shown in the data, and the net import and export volume of refined lead also have corresponding changes [36][40]. Lead Demand: Lead - Acid Batteries and Terminal - **Batteries**: The operating rate of lead - acid batteries has shown different trends over the years, and the monthly finished - product inventory days of battery enterprises and dealers are presented. The export volume of batteries also shows certain changes [44]. - **Consumption and Terminal**: The actual consumption of lead, the monthly production of automobiles and motorcycles are presented in the data, reflecting the terminal demand for lead [46].

Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing a complex interplay of supply and demand dynamics, influenced by environmental policies, macroeconomic factors, and seasonal trends, leading to fluctuations in lead prices. Group 1: Supply Dynamics - The main lead contract in Shanghai has shown a fluctuating upward trend due to environmental policies in Henan and Hebei, which have increased the circulation period of scrap and recycled lead, alongside slower-than-expected recovery in recycled lead production, resulting in low refinery inventories that support lead prices [1] - Overseas, while some mines like Endeavor and Tara are expected to provide incremental production, the overall increase is limited. Domestic mines are facing production halts, and despite some recovery in certain regions, the overall supply of lead ore is expected to remain stable [3] - The supply of recycled lead is facing environmental risks as northern regions prepare for heating, which may lead to production restrictions, potentially tightening supply in the short term [4] Group 2: Demand Trends - Demand for electric bicycles is transitioning from peak to off-peak seasons, with a seasonal decline expected. However, the implementation of new national standards is driving production line upgrades, maintaining some demand for lead-acid batteries [5][6] - The automotive sector is seeing limited growth in sales due to demand exhaustion, but there are signs of recovery in battery replacement demand as temperatures drop [6] - Overall, the lead-acid battery demand is expected to see slight increases, but high inventory levels among distributors may limit substantial upward pressure on prices [7] Group 3: Market Outlook - The macroeconomic environment appears bearish for the fourth quarter, but its short-term impact on lead prices is expected to be limited. The supply side variables are primarily related to recycled lead, which may maintain an increasing production pace despite potential environmental restrictions [7] - Lead prices are likely to experience fluctuations driven by recycled lead supply, with a potential downward trend if large-scale production resumes without external disruptions. However, environmental restrictions and adverse weather conditions may hinder the flow of recycled lead, leading to a volatile price outlook [7]