国轩高科 20250428 摘要 • 国轩高科第三代电池产能释放，乘用车配套占比提升至 15%，商用车重卡 市场占有率突破 4%，国际化战略稳步推进，越南工厂一期投产，为海外 业务增长奠定基础。 • 2024 年动力电池占比 65%，储能电池占比 35%。动力电池国内市场约 27-28GWh，海外市场约 10GWh。2025 年目标动力电池市场份额增加 1-2 个百分点，重卡出货量进一步扩大。 • 美国市场收入占比不到个位数，关税影响有限，正与客户谈判分摊关税。 储能市场预计 2025-2026 年显著增长，电芯工厂建设按计划进行，关税 政策利好本土化生产。 • 大众中国调整电动车策略，公司配合新平台 DMP 和 CSP 及新车型，预计 2026 年开始国内装车，2025 年主要配合大众欧洲业务。储能电芯销售供 不应求，需解决供需平衡问题。 • 2024 年发布极氪电池，包含全系超充技术系列，产能规模近 3G，2025 年计划提升至 10G 以上。三代电芯提升单体能量密度和续航里程，预计扩 充至 20G 左右产能。 Q&A 公司业绩增长的主要驱动因素是什么？ 公司业绩增长主要由两个重要变化推动：技术创新和产品 ...

摘要 考验产能利用。 中国动力电池行业的扩张步伐 正在持续 ，头部企业中创新航与国轩高科近期的投资动作再次印证了这一趋势。 与此同时，一个显著的并行现象是，围绕大圆柱电池、固态电池及其相关新材料的产能布局正变得日益密集，呈现出 " 拥挤 " 的态势。 中创新航公布了大规模的扩产计划。其成都项目二期已于 3 月底动工，该项目投资额达 120 亿元人民币，目标在 2026 年二季度投产，届时将新 增约 30GWh 的动力电池及储能系统年产能。 根据规划，中创新航到 2030 年总产能将达 500GWh 。 此前不久的 2 月，该公司位于福建厦门、投资 150 亿元、规划产能 30GWh 的高性能锂电池项目也已启动。 国轩高科则在 4 月调整了其为大众汽车配套的标准电芯项目计划。项目年产能目标调整为 28GWh （包含 12GWh 三元和 16GWh 磷酸铁锂及 PACK ），预计投产时间延后至 2026 年 12 月。 市场地位方面，根据 GGII 数据， 2024 年中创新航和国轩高科分别以 35.74GWh 和 22.12GWh 的动力电池装机量，占据了 6.73% 和 4.17% 的市场份额，位列国内第三、 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% against the market benchmark within the next six months [5][20]. Core Insights - The company is projected to achieve significant revenue growth in 2024, with an expected income of 3.606 billion, representing a 56% year-on-year increase, and a return to profitability with a net profit of 240 million [2][5]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 714 million, a 23% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 85 million, marking a 193% increase year-on-year [2][5]. - The company is expanding its market presence in North America and Asia, with projected revenues of 2.1 billion and 1.1 billion respectively for 2024, reflecting growth rates of 61% and 100% [3]. Financial Performance - The gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 44.1%, an increase of 4.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin is projected at 6.6%, up 14.2 percentage points [2][4]. - The company is implementing cost reduction strategies, leading to a decrease in expense ratios across various categories, with sales/management/R&D/financial expense ratios for 2024 expected to be 27.7%/5.1%/4.8%/-0.3% [4]. Product Innovation - The company is focusing on product innovation, with a projected 92% increase in revenue from photovoltaic solar panels in 2024, which will account for 21% of total revenue [4]. - The launch of the flagship CTB module structure 3000Pro2 in Q1 2025 is expected to enhance the company's market influence and value proposition [4]. Earnings Forecast - The forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are 323 million, 457 million, and 645 million respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 25, 17, and 12 [5][7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Chinese government is expected to introduce strong measures to boost consumption and stimulate domestic demand, which may create numerous opportunities in the stock market [1] - There is a significant anticipated stimulus policy aimed at boosting consumption and potential further policies in the real estate sector [1] - Compared to developed countries, China has considerable macro policy space, including leverage, monetary easing, and fiscal deficit levels, which can help stabilize the domestic macro economy [1] Group 2 - Domestic service consumption has been relatively low in recent years, but it is likely to be one of the sustainable growth directions for future domestic demand [2] - Leading domestic companies have been expanding overseas for years, particularly in sectors like home appliances, construction machinery, and lithium batteries, making these companies worthy of attention [2] - The power industry is experiencing a shift where profits are moving from coal to the electricity sector, with long-term reforms and the development of renewable energy expected to stabilize and grow the performance of traditional power companies while maintaining high dividend commitments [2]

锂矿主业尽管有些波动，但赣锋锂业旗下的赣锋锂电在产品上确实突破不少。 起点锂电获悉， 4 月 25 日天邦达与赣锋锂电签署协议 ，在电化学储能系统领域展开合作，具体为今年起 赣锋锂电向天邦达采购超过 5GWh 的电池管理系统 ，充分发挥双方技术专长，推动储能系统创新升级。 起点锂电从天邦达官网获悉，该公司成立于 2007 年，主营业务有储能锂电池管理系统 BMS 、储能整体解决方案， 5G 电源系统，新能源 汽车电动智控模组，动力 / 消费类锂电池控制模组等，已取得专利和软件著作权证百余件。 01 上游不利，下游突围 赣锋锂业 2024 年的 营收和净利润 分别同比下降 50.88% 、 23.49% ， 但 其他行业营收 却 增长 24.3% ，正说明了公司转型有了好结 果 。 锂价 近十年来经历了 两 次 大 变动周期 ， 尤其是 2020 年到现在经历了巅峰到谷底，这也恰恰是 新能源汽车 和储能产业从风口到内卷的 写照， 需求高增 但产能速度快于需求一步，造成释放时间加长 ，供求 关系也经历了一轮反转 ， 市场的影响对赣锋锂业尤其巨大 。 所以赣锋锂业此时需要进行全方位布局，从锂 资源到锂电池项目， 再 ...

利润估算 种类 73494 外购锂辉石精矿现金成本 k 利 tt 王 外购锂辉石精矿利润 -4652 74747 F 外购锂云母精矿现金成本 外购锂云母精矿利润 -7577 华友钻业接手印尼600亿电池项目。据路透社报道，当地时间4月23日，印尼能源和矿产资源部长巴利尔·拉哈达利亚（Bahl i Lahadal i a 表示，中国浙江华友钻业将取代韩国LG能源解决方案公司（LGES）、成为印尼一个主要电动汽车电池项目的战略投资者。 V t 、Galan Lithium 拒绝 1.5 亿美元收购要约。2025年4月3日,澳大利亚理矿公司 Galan Lithium（澳交所代码;GLN）于近日正式拒绝浙江华 友钻业与雷诺集团对其阿根廷 Hombre Muerto West (HMW) 及 Candelas 锂项目的联合收购报价。此次 1.5 亿美元的报价被 Galan 管理层评 价为"机会主义且估值过低"，认为未能反映项目的真实潜力及长期价值。 主要 下游刚需采买,备货意愿未提升。社会库存持续累库,下游环节原料库在高位,仓单库存充足。短期看. 预计期价 免 责 告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料，国贸期货力求准确可 ...

Group 1: Report's Core View - The fundamental outlook is marginally weakening, and lithium prices may experience a second bottoming. In terms of supply, some lithium salt plants had regular production cuts in April, and the resumption of production in May will increase domestic lithium salt supply. Meanwhile, Chile's lithium salt exports to China increased significantly in March, and there is also an expectation of an increase in imported resources. On the demand side, the high - frequency sales growth rate of new energy vehicles under the Passenger Car Association's statistics has weakened, and the boost from the April auto show to consumption was slightly less than expected. The cumulative sales - to - production ratio under the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers' statistics remains at a low level, indicating a gap between actual consumption and enterprise expectations, and the inventory pressure of finished vehicles persists. As the automotive consumption enters the seasonal off - season, the fundamentals are expected to weaken marginally. Technically, the lithium price initially bottomed out last period, but the subsequent correction was less than the previous high, and after the short - covering rebound, many long - positions also left, suggesting that trend - following long - positions are not firm. With the marginal weakening of the fundamentals, lithium prices may have a second bottoming [4]. Group 2: Market Data - Imported lithium raw ore (1.3% - 2.2%) decreased from $118/ton to $116/ton, a change of -$2.00 and -1.69% [5]. - Imported lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) decreased from $730/ton to $722/ton, a change of -$8.00 and -1.10% [5]. - Domestic lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) decreased from $730/ton to $722/ton, a change of -$8 and -1.10% [5]. - The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased from 7.04 million yuan/ton to 6.82 million yuan/ton, a change of -0.22 million yuan and -3.13% [5]. - The spot price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased from 7.05 million yuan/ton to 0 million yuan/ton, a change of -7.05 million yuan and -100.00% [5]. - The main contract price of lithium carbonate decreased from 7.04 million yuan/ton to 6.84 million yuan/ton, a change of -0.20 million yuan and -2.90% [5]. - The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse) decreased from 6.93 million yuan/ton to 6.80 million yuan/ton, a change of -0.13 million yuan and -1.88% [5]. - The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (fine) decreased from 7.42 million yuan/ton to 7.37 million yuan/ton, a change of -0.05 million yuan and -0.67% [5]. - The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased from 96,705 tons to 95,843 tons, a change of -862 tons and -0.89% [5]. - The price of lithium iron phosphate decreased from 3.32 million yuan/ton to 3.29 million yuan/ton, a change of -0.03 million yuan and -0.90% [5]. - The price of lithium cobalt oxide increased from 21.10 million yuan/ton to 21.30 million yuan/ton, a change of 0.20 million yuan and 0.95% [5]. - The price of ternary material (811) decreased from 14.95 million yuan/ton to 14.75 million yuan/ton, a change of -0.20 million yuan and -1.34% [5]. - The price of ternary material (622) decreased from 13.30 million yuan/ton to 13.15 million yuan/ton, a change of -0.15 million yuan and -1.13% [5]. Group 3: Market Analysis and Outlook Last Week's Market Analysis - As of April 25, 2025, the total warehouse receipt scale of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 31,792 tons, and the latest matching transaction price was 72,280 yuan/ton. The open interest of the main contract 2507 was 217,300 lots [7]. - As of April 25, the weekly production of lithium carbonate was 16,305 tons, a decrease of 190 tons from the previous period. Domestic production remains at a relatively low level, but with the end of maintenance in some lithium salt plants in May, domestic supply may be marginally corrected. With the ramping - up of northern salt lake resources and limited demand growth, the new supply will be internally replaced, and the cost center of lithium salt is expected to move down [7]. - In March, the import volume of lithium carbonate was about 18,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 47% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.8%. Among them, 12,700 tons were imported from Chile, a month - on - month increase of 67.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 22%; 4,646 tons were imported from Argentina, a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year increase of 86.3%. Chile's lithium carbonate exports in March were about 23,000 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 8%/37%. Among them, 16,600 tons were exported to China, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 3%/38%. In the future, the scale of lithium salt imports from Argentina is relatively stable, and the increase in domestic resources from Argentine salt lakes is limited in the short term. The main change in imports comes from Chile's shipments. The significant increase in Chile's lithium salt shipments to China in March may push up the domestic lithium salt supply scale in May [8]. - In March, about 534,500 tons of lithium ore were imported, a month - on - month decrease of 5.8%. Among them, 307,700 tons were imported from Australia, a month - on - month increase of 32.6% and a year - on - year increase of 30.5%; 51,800 tons were imported from South Africa, a month - on - month decrease of 65.3%; 58,400 tons were imported from Zimbabwe, a month - on - month decrease of 39.9%; 85,100 tons were imported from Nigeria, a month - on - month increase of 82.8% [8]. - In terms of downstream cathode materials, as of April 25, the total production of lithium iron phosphate was about 63,996 tons, with an operating rate of 59.27%, a decrease of 1.71 percentage points from the previous period, and the inventory was 38,378 tons, an increase of 60 tons from the previous period. The total production of ternary materials was about 14,600 tons, with an operating rate of 45.02%, a decrease of 0.77 percentage points from the previous period, and the inventory was 13,775 tons, an increase of 20 tons from the previous period. During the reporting period, the cathode material prices changed little. Most downstream enterprises have completed pre - holiday stockpiling, and when the price broke through this time, downstream spot price - fixing during trading was more cautious. The spot market had only rigid - demand purchases, and the price stimulus to material manufacturers' purchases was less than before. Currently, some material manufacturers may start a second price - increase negotiation with battery manufacturers, but the price - increase results may still show quality differentiation [9][10]. - From April 1 - 20, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market were 478,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 20% compared with the same period in April last year and a month - on - month decrease of 11%. The retail penetration rate was 53.3%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 2.898 million units, a year - on - year increase of 33%. In early April, the sales growth rate of new energy vehicles slowed down significantly, dragging down the annual consumption growth rate. Under the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers' statistics, the new energy sales - to - production ratio is at a low level, and the post - holiday rebound is less than in previous periods. The weak resilience of demand has led to a mismatch between vehicle manufacturers' production scheduling and sales expectations, and the inventory pressure of finished vehicles persists. Short - term consumption may depend on the effectiveness of the auto show in the second half of the month. Currently, China and the EU have started negotiations on electric vehicle prices, which will replace the tariff plan with a minimum pricing plan. However, regardless of the pricing result, the competitiveness of domestic brands in the European market will weaken marginally, and external demand for exports is not optimistic. Technologically, there have been many breakthroughs recently. CATL announced that it will launch a new sodium battery at the end of 2025. At the same time, Great Wall Motor and Guoxuan High - tech have both made progress in solid - state batteries [11]. - As of April 25, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 95,843 tons, a decrease of about - 862 tons from the previous period. Among them, the factory inventory was 32,560 tons, an increase of 2,860 tons from the previous period; the market inventory was 63,283 tons, a decrease of 3,722 tons from the previous period. Overall, after excluding the change in exchange inventory, the market inventory is still decreasing, showing a divergence from the significant increase in factory inventory, indicating that after the second price breakdown, the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory is weak, and they mainly focus on digesting existing inventory [12]. This Week's Outlook - The fundamental outlook is marginally weakening, and lithium prices may experience a second bottoming. The supply in May will increase due to the resumption of production in some lithium salt plants and the expected increase in imports from Chile. On the demand side, the high - frequency sales growth rate of new energy vehicles has weakened, the boost from the auto show was less than expected, the sales - to - production ratio is low, and the consumption is entering the seasonal off - season. Technically, the lithium price's previous correction was less than the previous high, and long - positions left after the short - covering rebound. The increase in open interest slowed down while trading volume increased significantly [4][13]. Group 4: Industry News - The largest hard - rock lithium mine in Asia obtained a mining license. The Verasto lithium polymetallic mine in Keshiketeng Banner, Chifeng City, is the largest hard - rock lithium mine in Asia and the largest single - tin mine north of the Yangtze River. On April 21, the Ministry of Natural Resources officially approved and granted the mining license to Inner Mongolia Verasto Mining Co., Ltd., marking the implementation stage of lithium and tin resource development and utilization in Chifeng City. The Verasto lithium polymetallic mine mainly contains valuable metal elements such as lithium, tin, tungsten, and zinc, with characteristics of shallow burial, thick ore bodies, large resource reserves, and high grades. The total proven ore reserves are 55.27 million tons, including 41.98 million tons of Li2O (lithium oxide) ore, with a metal content of 576,000 tons and an average grade of 1.37% [14]. - CATL launched the second - generation Shenxing ultra - fast charging battery. On April 21, CATL released the second - generation Shenxing ultra - fast charging battery, a lithium iron phosphate battery. According to CATL, the battery has a range of 800 kilometers, a peak charging rate close to 12C, and a peak charging power of more than 1.3 megawatts, enabling "5 - minute charging for a range of over 520 kilometers" [14]. - Hunan Yueneng plans to invest in a 20,000 - ton lithium battery recycling project. Recently, the official website of Xiangxiang City Government in Hunan Province released the environmental impact approval decision and publicity of the "Annual 20,000 - ton Waste Lithium - Ion Battery Disassembly and Recycling Project of Hunan Yueneng Circular Technology Co., Ltd." [14]. - The second - phase project of a 120,000 - ton lithium iron phosphate production base started. Recently, under the strategic background of deepening new energy industry cooperation between China and Indonesia, the second - phase project of the 120,000 - ton lithium iron phosphate cathode material production base of Longpan Technology's (603906) Indonesian lithium source was launched in Semarang, Indonesia [15].

打包市场龙头，抢反弹就买指数ETF>> 阳光电源（300274）涨幅扩大至6.26%，锂电池ETF(561160)持有该股票9.28%，当前涨幅为0.44%，成 交额15.45万元，较昨日此时放量332.15%，近1月份额减少4800万份。 ...

"在技术创新方面，公司持续加大研发投入。我们密切与高校、科研机构的合作，共同攻克锂电池能量 密度提升、安全性增强、快充技术优化等关键技术难题。"该公司物流仓储部负责人刘小华介绍，今年 一季度，该公司出口货值超2.5亿美元，较去年同期实现了跨越式增长，订单已排到几个月后。 为助力福建省锂电池产业发展，厦门海关推进智慧化、集约化、便利化监管模式，上线"产品线预审 +装配线可视"远程智慧监管项目，实施并批检验、集中出证的"一站式"服务。依托智慧海关建设，联合 港口码头推行"提前申报+出口直装"模式，确保危险货物冷藏箱通关全程"不落地"；为重点企业开辟"专 属通道"，实施"提前申报+优先查验"，进一步提升通关效率。 厦门海关相关负责人表示，将进一步畅通关企沟通渠道，紧跟企业需求和产业发展趋势，优化出口锂电 池包装检验流程，推广"绿色通道""云上监管"等便利通关模式，帮助企业实现"高周转低库存"，全力支 持锂电池出口。(张文科) 目前，锂电池产业已成为福建省的优势特色产业，以宁德、厦门为南北双引擎，正领跑全球新能源赛 道。据厦门海关统计，今年一季度，福建省锂电池出口总值达305.02亿元，同比增长21.72%，连续21 ...