基础化工行业 行业研究 | 深度报告 从电池巨头加码高压实铁锂布局看草酸景 气向上机遇 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 整体而言，我们看好草酸在下游高压实密度磷酸铁锂需求增长的背景下迎来景气的 上行机会。看好国内草酸龙头企业华鲁恒升(600426，买入)，以及已规划新增产能 的万凯新材(301216，买入)；其他相关标的还有新疆天业(600075，未评级)（参股 天业汇合 37.88%）、丰元股份(002805，未评级)、金煤科技(600844，未评级)（控 股通辽金煤 76.77%）。 风险提示 ⚫ 草酸需求增长不及预期；草酸供给释放超预期；产能等客观数据统计误差风险。 国家/地区 中国 行业 基础化工行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 22 日 看好（维持） | 万里扬 | 执业证书编号：S0860519090003 | | --- | --- | | | wanliyang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 倪吉 | 执业证书编号：S0860517120003 | | | niji@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-633263 ...

江西地区政策变动频出，碳酸锂情绪短期仍在延续 一、日度市场总结 碳酸锂期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差 ：2025年12月19日，碳酸锂主力合约价格报111400元/ 吨，较前一日的106160元/吨大幅上扬5240元/吨，涨幅达4.94%。基差 为-11800元/吨，较前一日-7360元/吨走弱4440元/吨。 持仓与成交 ：主力合约持仓量小幅收缩，2025年12月19日为668829手，较 前一日672711手减少3882手，降幅0.58%。成交量同步收缩，2025年12月19 日报928963手，较前一日1013916手减少84953手，降幅8.38%。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端 ：锂矿原料价格持续走高，2025年12月19日锂辉石精矿市场价报 10800元/吨，较前一日上涨595元/吨；锂云母精矿市场价报5565元/吨，上 涨390元/吨。碳酸锂产能利用率维持在83.52%，与前一周持平，显示生产 稳定。2025年12月19日枧下窝锂矿采矿项目公示引发市场供应担忧，但资 讯显示该项目此前已停止开采，实际供应影响有限；新项目如ABB支持的 Vulcan Energy项目处于建设阶段，短期投产 ...

主力合约与基差 ：2025年12月17日，碳酸锂主力合约价格大幅走高至 108620元/吨，较前一日上涨8020元/吨，涨幅7.97%。基差显著走弱， 从-4800元/吨扩大至-11820元/吨，变化-7020元/吨。 持仓与成交 ：主力合约持仓量小幅扩大0.38%，至668589手。成交量急剧 扩大93.97%，至1158611手。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 锂矿消息点燃市场，但回归理性后有短期回调风险 一、日度市场总结 碳酸锂期货市场数据变动分析 供给端 ：锂辉石精矿价格稳定在9665元/吨，锂云母精矿价格维持在5175 元/吨。碳酸锂产能利用率从2025年12月5日的75.34%升至2025年12月12日 的83.52%，增幅10.86%，表明供给端产能扩张。资讯显示，李家沟锂矿项 目于2025年8月末达产，年产精矿约18万吨，强化了供给稳定性；江西宜春 采矿权注销事件虽引发担忧，但实际不影响当前供应，因相关矿山已停 采。 需求端 ：下游正极材料价格小幅上扬，动力型三元材料从146000元/吨升 至146300元/吨，动力型磷酸铁锂从39845元/吨升至40140元/吨。资讯显 示，12月初新能源车销量 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the dynamic landscape of the electric vehicle (EV) industry, highlighting the competition among established players like BYD and Tesla, as well as new entrants like Seres and Xiaomi, while emphasizing the need to decode future investment opportunities amidst technological advancements and market shifts [4]. Market Status: Opportunities Amidst Differentiation - The EV market in 2025 shows a duality of growth and cooling, with production and sales increasing by 45% year-on-year in the first five months, and penetration rates surpassing 44%, indicating that one in every two new cars is an EV [5]. - However, the overall vehicle market growth is only 3%, signaling a shift from rapid expansion to more refined strategies [5]. - The competitive landscape is dominated by BYD and Tesla, with BYD leveraging vertical integration and technological iteration, while Tesla focuses on Full Self-Driving (FSD) to penetrate global markets [5]. - New entrants are experiencing differentiation: Li Auto maintains a strong position through precise targeting, NIO solidifies its high-end market with battery swapping, and Seres benefits from Huawei's smart driving technology [5]. Technological Warfare: Battery, Smart Driving, and Ecosystem - The article identifies three critical technological battlegrounds: 1. Battery Revolution: Solid-state batteries are on the horizon, with CATL's "Shenxing Battery" achieving 400 km range in just 10 minutes of charging, although mass production of solid-state batteries remains a challenge [6]. 2. Smart Driving Competition: The transition from L2 to "City NOA" is underway, with Tesla's FSD evolving and Huawei and Xpeng pushing for urban NOA implementation, making smart driving a standard feature rather than just a selling point [6]. 3. Ecosystem Integration: Companies like Xiaomi and Huawei are integrating their ecosystems into vehicles, creating a holistic user experience that extends beyond the car itself [6]. Investment Insights: Identifying Certainty Across Cycles - Future investments should focus on three key logics: 1. Head Concentration: Betting on "the strong will get stronger," with BYD and Tesla showing resilience due to scale, technology, and brand barriers, while Seres and Xiaomi offer differentiated competitive advantages [7]. 2. Technological Positioning: Focusing on critical points in the supply chain, such as battery production led by CATL and BYD, and smart driving chips dominated by Huawei and Horizon [7]. 3. Risk Avoidance: Being cautious of "pseudo-innovation" and "low barriers," as smaller companies lacking core technology may face elimination during market consolidation [7]. User Transition: From High-End to Rational Demand - The market is undergoing a structural shift, with second-tier and lower-tier cities accounting for over 50% of sales, indicating a move from policy-driven to market-driven demand [8]. - User profiles are becoming clearer, with urban middle-class consumers seeking smart features and cost-effectiveness, while younger consumers in smaller cities are eager to try new technologies [8]. - Decision-making is becoming more rational, with key considerations including range, charging, resale value, and safety, prompting companies to address these pain points [8]. Industry Insights: A Paradigm-Shifting Revolution - The EV wave offers insights that extend beyond the automotive industry: 1. Balancing "Fast" and "Slow": While technological iterations occur rapidly, the maturity of the supply chain requires years of development, necessitating a balance between innovation speed and quality [10]. 2. Inevitable Cross-Industry Integration: The entry of tech companies disrupts traditional automotive boundaries, leading to a three-dimensional competition involving software, hardware, and ecosystems [11]. 3. Globalization as a Double-Edged Sword: Chinese automakers face opportunities abroad but must also navigate geopolitical and trade barriers [12]. 4. Long-Termism as a Winning Strategy: Post-subsidy reductions, only companies that invest in R&D and build brand moats will survive through cycles [13]. Conclusion - The EV industry stands at a historical crossroads, where technological breakthroughs and market dynamics intersect, and user demands collide with capital logic [14]. - Future winners will be those who lead change through technological innovation, control the supply chain to mitigate risks, and define products with a user-centric approach [14].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights China's strategic use of "new energy" materials, particularly lithium iron phosphate (LFP), in response to the U.S.-China trade tensions, emphasizing its long-term significance over rare earth materials [1][3][12]. Group 1: Impact of Lithium Iron Phosphate - The market for lithium iron phosphate batteries is significantly larger than that for rare earths, with the battery market valued in the hundreds of billions and the energy storage market in the trillions [3][12]. - Since June, the U.S. has seen explosive growth in imports of lithium iron phosphate materials from China, primarily for Korean battery factories located from Michigan to Mississippi [3][5]. - China's recent restrictions on lithium iron phosphate materials and production equipment could severely challenge the U.S. energy storage supply chain [6][12]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - The fourth generation of lithium iron phosphate technology, characterized by high-density and fast-charging capabilities, is revolutionizing the market, allowing for longer battery life and better performance [13][19]. - Companies like Jiangxi Shenghua and Hunan Youneng are leading the charge in this technological advancement, with Jiangxi Shenghua recently turning a profit after years of losses [18][19]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Competition - The rapid expansion of lithium iron phosphate production capacity in China has led to a significant increase in competition, with many companies entering the market, resulting in overcapacity and price pressures [29][32]. - The industry has seen a shift from reliance on traditional lithium-ion batteries to lithium iron phosphate batteries, particularly in electric vehicles, with major models now featuring LFP technology [20][28]. Group 4: Economic Challenges - Despite dominating the lithium iron phosphate market, Chinese companies face significant economic challenges, including low profit margins and high competition, leading to widespread losses across the industry [50][53]. - The industry's profitability is heavily concentrated among a few leading firms, with the top five companies capturing 90% of the profits, while smaller firms struggle to survive [50][54]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The article suggests that the future of the lithium iron phosphate industry hinges on the ability of companies to convert technological advancements into sustainable business models and profit-sharing mechanisms [55]. - Innovations in production methods, such as liquid-phase synthesis, are expected to play a crucial role in enhancing the competitive edge of Chinese manufacturers in the global market [24][26].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong performance of CATL (宁德时代) in the third quarter, showcasing its robust financial results and the significant premium of its H-shares over A-shares, driven by macroeconomic liquidity conditions and the company's fundamental strengths [5][6][7][11]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3, CATL reported a net profit of 18.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41%, and a net profit of 16.4 billion yuan after excluding non-recurring gains, reflecting a 35% growth [6]. - Following the earnings report, CATL's shares opened higher in both Hong Kong and A-share markets, with H-shares trading at a 34% premium over A-shares [7][11]. Group 2: Market Pricing Dynamics - Typically, A+H listed companies see A-shares priced higher than H-shares, but CATL is an exception, with its H-shares significantly more expensive than A-shares [8][11]. - As of October 21, 2025, among 161 A+H listed companies, only four, including CATL, had H-shares trading at a premium to A-shares, with CATL's premium being the highest at 34% [9][11]. Group 3: Liquidity and Market Conditions - The article discusses the unusual liquidity conditions in the Hong Kong market following a significant appreciation of Asian currencies in early May 2025, which led to a substantial injection of liquidity by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority [13][15]. - The Hibor rate dropped dramatically from 4.07% to 0.58% in May, creating an environment of excess liquidity that favored investments in high-quality assets like CATL [16][17]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Market Position - CATL's market share is expected to continue growing, with a current global market share of approximately 38%, despite a decline in domestic share and an increase in Europe [29][31]. - The company is set to release new production capacity starting in the second half of 2024, with projections for 2026 output exceeding 1 TWh, which is anticipated to drive revenue growth [34][44]. - Analysts predict that CATL's net profit could reach between 88 billion to 93.5 billion yuan in 2026, with a potential market valuation of 2.2 trillion to 2.4 trillion yuan based on a 25x PE ratio [44].

Core Viewpoint - The "Three-Year Doubling" Action Plan aims to significantly enhance China's electric vehicle charging infrastructure, targeting the establishment of 28 million charging facilities and over 300 million kilowatts of public charging capacity by the end of 2027, to support the charging needs of 80 million electric vehicles [2][3][5]. Group 1: Infrastructure Development - The plan represents a pivotal shift in China's electric vehicle industry, moving from the initial "Ten Cities, Thousand Vehicles" initiative to a comprehensive infrastructure strategy that supports widespread adoption of electric vehicles [3][5]. - The goal of 80 million electric vehicles is projected to be achieved within the next 3-4 years, necessitating a robust charging infrastructure that is not merely about one-to-one vehicle-to-charger ratios but rather a networked, layered, and shared energy replenishment system [6][7]. Group 2: Key Actions - Five key actions outlined in the plan include upgrading public charging facilities, optimizing residential charging conditions, promoting vehicle-to-grid (V2G) interactions, enhancing power supply security, and improving charging operation quality [9][10][12][14][16]. - The plan aims to add 1.6 million direct current fast charging guns, including 100,000 high-power fast charging guns, and to ensure rural areas are covered with at least 14,000 direct current guns [10][12]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - The action plan emphasizes the transition from isolated charging points to a cohesive network, which is crucial for the future of electric vehicle infrastructure [8]. - The introduction of high-voltage charging ecosystems, including the construction of 100,000 high-power charging guns by 2027, is expected to drive significant advancements in battery technology, focusing on fast charging performance, cycle life, and safety [18][21]. Group 4: Market Implications - The rapid expansion of charging infrastructure is anticipated to alleviate "charging anxiety" among consumers, stabilize expectations for electric vehicle consumption, and promote the mainstream adoption of high-voltage, long-life, and high-safety batteries [27]. - The integration of electric vehicles into the energy network is expected to redefine their role from mere energy consumers to adjustable units within the energy system, enhancing overall system efficiency [22][27]. Group 5: Safety and Standards - The new national standards for electric vehicle batteries will elevate safety requirements, focusing on thermal stability and consistency under complex operating conditions, with a shift towards proactive safety measures throughout the battery lifecycle [24][26]. - Innovations in battery design and materials are being pursued to meet these new standards, with companies like CATL and BYD leading the way in developing safer and more efficient battery technologies [25][26].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the growing demand and price increase for high-pressure dense lithium iron phosphate (LFP) materials, which are expected to be in high demand in 2025 due to advancements in fast-charging technology and the need for large-capacity energy storage batteries [3][4]. - The price of high-pressure dense LFP is projected to rise by 500-1500 yuan per ton in 2025, with a premium of 2000-3000 yuan per ton compared to standard third-generation products [3]. - Companies are actively increasing the production capacity of high-pressure dense LFP to meet the anticipated demand [4]. Group 2 - Sichuan Fulian New Materials is progressing with an environmental assessment for a project to produce 350,000 tons of new energy lithium battery cathode materials annually [5][7]. - The project will include various production systems and is part of a collaboration between Fulian Precision and Chuanfa Longmang, with a total investment in multiple projects including high-pressure dense LFP and lithium dihydrogen phosphate [8]. - The production process using lithium dihydrogen phosphate and ferrous oxalate allows for high density and performance while reducing costs through integrated capacity construction [9]. Group 3 - Jiangxi Shenghua, a subsidiary of Fulian Precision, has a current annual production capacity of 300,000 tons of high-pressure dense LFP, with a significant revenue increase of 71.99% year-on-year, reaching 4.829 billion yuan in 2024 [9]. - A strategic partnership with CATL has been established, with a prepayment agreement of 1.5 billion yuan to secure LFP supply, indicating strong demand from leading battery manufacturers [10]. - The collaboration will deepen as both companies plan to increase their stakes in Jiangxi Shenghua, enhancing its position in the market [10].

Core Viewpoint - The demand for high-pressure lithium iron phosphate (LFP) is increasing due to advancements in energy storage and power batteries, while the production capacity is still limited among manufacturers [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Demand and Supply - The demand for high-pressure LFP is driven by the performance improvements in energy storage and power batteries, which require larger capacity, higher energy density, and fast charging capabilities [2]. - As of the first half of 2025, the monthly shipment of high-pressure LFP materials has exceeded 40,000 tons, indicating a significant demand gap in the short term [3]. - The domestic energy storage market saw a cumulative installed capacity of 23.03 GW/56.12 GWh in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 68% [9]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The pricing mechanism for LFP has shifted, with processing fees becoming a major profit source for manufacturers, leading to a competitive landscape where top companies dominate the market [3][4]. - The fourth generation of high-pressure LFP (≥2.6 g/cm³) is primarily produced by leading companies such as Fulin Precision, Hunan Youneng, and Longpan Technology, which limits the survival space for smaller firms [3][4]. - The industry is experiencing a structural oversupply and price competition, with many companies operating at a loss, although some are beginning to narrow their losses as they expand into fourth-generation products [5][6]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - The mainstream density of LFP materials is currently between 2.5-2.55 g/cm³, with ongoing developments aimed at achieving higher densities and longer cycle lives [11][12]. - Major battery manufacturers are enhancing their products' performance, which directly increases the demand for high-pressure LFP [13][14]. - Companies like Fulin Precision and Hunan Youneng are advancing their production capabilities for fourth-generation LFP, with significant investments and partnerships to secure stable material supplies [16][18]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The upcoming 2025 High-Performance Lithium Battery Conference will gather industry leaders to discuss the latest trends and challenges in the lithium battery supply chain [7][20]. - The demand for high-pressure LFP is expected to grow significantly, particularly in the energy storage sector, as companies explore larger capacity batteries [20].

Core Viewpoint - The strategic partnership between Fulin Precision (富临精工) and CATL (宁德时代) has entered a critical phase, with CATL set to increase its stake in Fulin's subsidiary, Jiangxi Shenghua, to 51% through a capital increase of 2.563 billion yuan, marking a significant shift in control and collaboration [2][6]. Group 1: Financial and Operational Highlights - Fulin Precision's core business includes lithium battery cathode materials, automotive engine and transmission precision components, and has expanded into robotic intelligent electric joint modules and components [5]. - In 2024, Fulin Precision is projected to achieve revenue of 8.47 billion yuan, with Jiangxi Shenghua contributing 4.83 billion yuan and Mianyang Fulin Precision New Energy contributing 1.68 billion yuan, alongside a net profit of 402 million yuan [5]. - As of mid-2025, Jiangxi Shenghua's total assets are estimated at 7 billion yuan, with net assets increasing from 725 million yuan at the end of last year to 1.189 billion yuan [8]. Group 2: Historical Context and Strategic Developments - The collaboration between Fulin Precision and CATL dates back to 2021, with CATL initially investing 20 million yuan in Jiangxi Shenghua, followed by additional investments that increased its stake to 20% by early 2022 [6]. - In August 2024, a business cooperation agreement was signed, committing CATL to purchase at least 140,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate annually from Jiangxi Shenghua from 2025 to 2027, later extended to 2029 [6]. - A recent announcement indicated that Jiangxi Shenghua received a 1.5 billion yuan advance payment from CATL to secure lithium iron phosphate supply and support raw material construction [6]. Group 3: Product and Market Dynamics - Jiangxi Shenghua specializes in high-pressure dense lithium iron phosphate materials, which are critical in the lithium battery industry, particularly for fast-charging applications [10][11]. - The demand for high-pressure dense lithium iron phosphate is expected to surge, with the market anticipated to grow significantly in 2025, termed the "supercharging year" [10]. - Fulin Precision has established a production capacity of 300,000 tons of high-pressure dense lithium iron phosphate, positioning itself as a key player in the competitive landscape [11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - With CATL's controlling stake, Jiangxi Shenghua is expected to enhance its product structure and profitability, with projections indicating that the proportion of fifth-generation products will exceed 70% by 2026, leading to improved profit margins [12].