Market Performance - The major stock indices in the two markets experienced a strong rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 1% and approaching 4000 points, marking a new high in over 10 years [1] - As of the market close, the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.18% to 3996.94 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.51% to 13489.4 points, and the ChiNext Index gained 1.98% to 3234.45 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 23.568 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - The semiconductor sector showed strong performance, with other sectors such as non-ferrous metals, steel, electricity, brokerage, coal, agriculture, chemicals, and insurance also rising [1] - Active concepts included storage chips, photolithography machines, and CPO [1] Market Sentiment and Outlook - According to CITIC Securities, market sentiment has cooled somewhat since October, with a slowdown in the inflow of incremental funds, but overall, the market has not lost momentum [1] - Recent signals of easing in China-US relations have improved risk appetite in overseas markets [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" recommendations have been released, which are expected to enhance market risk appetite in the short term due to increased policy clarity [1] - In the medium to long term, the "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines a blueprint for a modern industrial system, providing a clear growth path for A-shares through technological breakthroughs and industrial upgrades [1]

（文章来源：新华财经） 南部半岛棕榈油压榨商协会（SPPOMA）数据显示，2025年10月1-25日马来西亚棕榈油单产环比上月同 期增加1.63%，出油率环比上月同期增加0.22%，产量环比上月同期增加2.78%。 ...

Core Points - The agreements signed by President Trump during the ASEAN summit aim to deepen economic ties and diversify supply chains while addressing trade imbalances [1] Group 1: Key Mineral Cooperation - The agreements with Malaysia and Thailand focus on the construction of diversified supply chains, particularly in critical minerals [3] - Malaysia has committed not to impose export bans or quota restrictions on critical minerals and rare earth elements to the U.S., despite previously banning rare earth exports to develop downstream industries [4] Group 2: Tariffs and Market Access - The trade agreements include tariff adjustments, with the U.S. maintaining a 19% base tariff rate on exports to Malaysia, Cambodia, and Thailand, while some products will see tariffs reduced to zero [5] - Vietnam has agreed to a framework that imposes a 20% tariff on U.S. products, while committing to significantly increase purchases of U.S. goods to reduce the trade surplus, which is projected to reach $123 billion in 2024 [5] - All four countries have pledged to eliminate trade barriers and provide preferential market access for U.S. goods, with Thailand agreeing to remove tariffs on approximately 99% of goods [5] Group 3: Practical Cooperation and Trade Orders - The agreements resulted in substantial trade commitments, with Thailand promising to purchase 80 aircraft from the U.S. annually, valued at $18.8 billion, along with $5.4 billion in energy products and $2.6 billion in agricultural products each year [6] - The agreements also encompass cooperation in digital trade, service investment, labor rights protection, and environmental protection [7] - Malaysia's role as a global leader in halal certification will facilitate the entry of U.S. products into its market, creating opportunities for specialized trade [7]

Group 1: Economic Development Strategy - The "15th Five-Year Plan" period is crucial for achieving socialist modernization, emphasizing the need for continuous effort and progressive development[11] - The meeting highlighted the importance of maintaining a stable economic foundation, with strengths in the economy, resilience, and potential for long-term growth[12] - The goal is to achieve significant progress in high-quality development, with a focus on technological self-reliance and strengthening the real economy[14] Group 2: Technological Innovation and Self-Reliance - The emphasis is on accelerating high-level technological self-reliance to lead new productive forces, moving from merely having technology to achieving excellence and leadership[21] - Policies will focus on breaking through key core technologies and enhancing original innovation to seize future technological competition[22] - The aim is to create a robust national innovation system capable of producing disruptive technological achievements[21] Group 3: Domestic Demand and Economic Circulation - The strategy includes expanding domestic demand and strengthening the domestic economic cycle, with specific measures to enhance consumer spending and investment in human capital[23] - The focus is on creating a closed-loop logic between improving people's livelihoods and promoting consumption[24] - The meeting called for breaking down barriers to building a unified national market to unleash domestic demand potential[25] Group 4: High-Level Opening Up - The meeting stressed the need to expand high-level opening up and maintain a multilateral trade system, promoting reform and development through openness[27] - China aims to deepen institutional opening up, enhancing its economic resilience and competitiveness by aligning with international high standards[27] Group 5: Common Prosperity and Social Welfare - The meeting emphasized increasing efforts to improve people's livelihoods and advance common prosperity, ensuring coverage for all citizens[28] - Policies will focus on basic public services and strengthening social security for vulnerable groups[28] - The real estate sector is shifting towards high-quality development, focusing on meeting people's needs and improving product quality[28]

Group 1: Economic Development and Modernization - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session approved the proposal for the 15th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing the need for top-level design and strategic planning for the next five years, aiming to advance Chinese-style modernization [1] - The session highlighted the construction of a modern industrial system and the strengthening of the real economy, with specific focus on industrial growth, project acceleration, and innovation integration in the Jiangbei New Materials Science and Technology Park [2] - The Binjiang Development Zone plans to focus on high-quality industrial development, particularly in new-generation information communication, green intelligent vehicles, and high-end equipment manufacturing [3] Group 2: Agricultural Modernization - The session underscored the importance of accelerating agricultural and rural modernization, aiming for comprehensive rural revitalization, which is crucial for the city's agricultural strategy [4] - The Pukou District has been recognized for its achievements in rural revitalization, with plans to enhance grain production capacity and develop specialized agriculture [5] Group 3: Social Welfare and Employment - The session called for increased efforts in improving people's livelihoods and promoting common prosperity, guiding local health authorities to innovate service delivery and enhance community health services [6] - Employment was identified as a fundamental aspect of people's livelihoods, with local employment services focusing on creating community-based job opportunities and supporting vulnerable groups [7]

Core Insights - The Fifth World Biosphere Reserve Congress held in Hangzhou gathered around 4,000 representatives from over 150 countries, focusing on sustainable ecological development [1] - Hangzhou has adopted a unique path of ecological priority and green development, embodying the concept that "lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets" [1] Group 1: Project Overview - The Tianmu Future Valley project, covering 2,422 acres with a total investment of 4.59 billion yuan, aims to integrate ecological resources with digital advancements, promoting a zero-carbon sustainable development model [2] - The project is part of Zhejiang Province's "thousand projects, trillion investment" initiative and serves as a key site for international exchanges during the congress [2] Group 2: Economic and Social Impact - The Tianmu Future Valley project is expected to attract over 1 million visitors annually and create over 700 jobs, boosting local collective economic income by over 2 million yuan per year [3] - The project promotes regional integration and development, enhancing public services and driving economic growth in the central Tianmu area [3] Group 3: Rural Development - Moon Bridge Village, located near Tianmu Mountain, has transformed from relying on bamboo shoots to developing ecological agriculture and high-end homestays, becoming a model for rural governance and ecological construction [5][6] - The village has established a collective-controlled operating company to manage resources and attract new agricultural talents, leading to the establishment of various new agricultural bases and tourism activities [6][7] Group 4: Economic Benefits - The booming homestay industry in Moon Bridge Village has created over 100 jobs, generating an annual income of 200,000 yuan for the village collective and increasing per capita disposable income to over 50,000 yuan [8] - The village has been recognized as a model for rural revitalization and has become part of the first batch of "common prosperity" joint entities in the region [8]

Group 1 - The agricultural and fishery ETF (159275) showed stable performance with a 0.1% increase in price and a transaction volume of 1.9989 million yuan, bringing the fund's total size to 208 million yuan [1] - Key performing stocks included Zhongxing Junye, Xiaoming Co., and Biological Co., with increases of 4.76%, 4.1%, and 3.16% respectively, while Chenguang Biological, Shennong Seed Industry, and Zhangzidao experienced declines of 2.78%, 1.32%, and 1.27% [1] - Brazil's soybean import prices reached a historic high in mid-October, leading nearly 100 domestic grain and oil companies to suspend purchases of soybeans for December and January, affecting approximately 8 million tons [1] Group 2 - The pig farming industry is experiencing increased supply and rising prices due to higher demand for fat pigs, but continued losses in farming may accelerate capacity reduction [2] - The poultry farming sector faces uncertainty in breeding stock imports due to frequent outbreaks of avian influenza overseas, which may benefit the white feather chicken industry chain prices [2] - The animal health industry is expected to see a recovery in demand, with new product launches providing growth momentum, while the pet market continues to grow rapidly domestically [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US 9 - month CPI was slightly lower than expected, and the market fully priced in two 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts by the Fed this year. The outcome of Sino - US trade negotiations and the Fed's future interest rate path are key factors affecting the market [20][21]. - The "15th Five - Year Plan" has boosted the stock market, especially technology stocks, but concerns about shrinking trading volume and liquidity decline remain. The performance of various commodities is affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and geopolitical situations [2][25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US 9 - month CPI was lower than expected, and the impact of tariffs on inflation was not fully reflected. Core inflation declined due to the easing of service costs. The Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in the October meeting was fully priced in. Sino - US trade negotiations made some progress, which was negative for gold. Gold prices were expected to continue to be weak and may have further downward adjustment space [12]. - Investment advice: Gold prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and it is recommended to observe the support at the $4000 level [13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump announced a 10% tariff on Canada, and Sino - US trade negotiations reached a preliminary consensus, reducing the possibility of short - term trade friction escalation. The US dollar index was expected to fluctuate in the short term [14][17]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index will fluctuate in the short term [18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US 10 - month Markit service and manufacturing PMI preliminary values were better than expected, and the 9 - month core CPI growth was lower than expected. The market fully priced in two 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts by the Fed this year. Sino - US trade negotiations did not deteriorate further. The market risk appetite increased [19][20][21]. - Investment advice: Maintain a bullish view and buy on dips [22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The "15th Five - Year Plan" boosted the stock market, and technology stocks rose strongly, but trading volume was shrinking. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of this change [25]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to allocate various stock indexes evenly [26]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The press conference on the "15th Five - Year Plan" boosted market risk appetite, and the bond market declined. In the short term, the bond market was expected to fluctuate weakly, but there were still upward opportunities later [28]. - Investment advice: The market may adjust recently. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [29]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of Indonesian low - calorie steam coal was stable, and the domestic market sentiment cooled. Coastal power plant restocking slowed down, but the early arrival of winter demand and stable supply provided strong support for coal prices [31]. - Investment advice: Coal prices are expected to have strong support at the bottom [31]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - LKAB's iron ore production in Q3 2025 increased significantly year - on - year. The downstream demand weakened slightly, and the steel mill profit narrowed. Iron ore inventory was expected to gradually accumulate in the fourth quarter, and its fundamentals were structurally weak [32]. - Investment advice: The fundamentals of iron ore are structurally weak [32]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - In the 43rd week, the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was higher than expected, and it was expected to decline slightly in the 44th week. The production of Malaysian palm oil increased significantly in October, and there were news about Indonesian palm plantations. The Brazilian soybean planting progress was good, and the production of US renewable fuels increased [33][34]. - Investment advice: For palm oil, consider going long on dips; for soybean oil, pay attention to the latest progress of Sino - US relations [34]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - China's sugar production in September 2025 increased year - on - year. India advanced the sugar - cane crushing start date. Datagro expected an increase in Brazilian sugar production and a global sugar supply surplus in the 25/26 season. The market was bearish, but there were still factors that could affect Brazilian sugar production, and the production in the Northern Hemisphere needed to be verified [35][37][38]. - Investment advice: Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weakly volatile. Do not chase short positions blindly and pay attention to the upcoming National Sugar Conference [39]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Brazil's cotton exports accelerated in October. The international spot market was sluggish, and the increase in yarn prices was blocked. Zhengzhou cotton rose due to factors such as the increase in Xinjiang seed - cotton purchase prices, but its upward space was limited [40][42][43]. - Investment advice: Zhengzhou cotton's upward space is limited. Pay attention to the new cotton listing, downstream orders, and Sino - US relations [44]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The soybean planting rate in Mato Grosso, Brazil, reached 60%. The domestic oil mill's soybean crushing volume was at a high level. The US soybean drought area remained unchanged, and the USDA report was suspended. The market was concerned about Sino - US trade talks and South American weather [45][46]. - Investment advice: Soybean meal prices are expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to Sino - US relations and South American weather [47]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased. The Southeast Asian Iron and Steel Association proposed to impose carbon taxes on steel imports. The inventory of key steel enterprises increased. The overall demand was weak, and steel prices were expected to fluctuate [48][50][51]. - Investment advice: Adopt a range - trading mindset for steel prices [51]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Jujube) - The jujube price in the Hebei market was stable. The futures price of the main contract declined. The Xinjiang jujube was in the normal drying stage, and the inventory was at a high level. The market was bearish [52][53]. - Investment advice: The jujube market is bearish. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the price negotiation and purchase progress in the production area [53]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The starch inventory decreased seasonally. The raw material supply in North China decreased, and the opening rate decreased. The starch enterprise remained slightly profitable. The futures price difference between corn and starch was repaired [54]. - Investment advice: The price difference of the 01 contract may continue to be repaired [55]. 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises increased seasonally, while the inventory days of feed enterprises decreased. The spot price was expected to continue to oscillate and find the bottom, and the 01 contract was expected to fluctuate horizontally [56]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. Short - selling has a poor risk - return ratio, and going long may need to wait for an opportunity [57]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - The Huatong electrolytic aluminum project in Angola is expected to be put into operation in December 2025. The domestic alumina price was under pressure due to the opening of the import window and oversupply [58][59]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see [60]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The copper production of some mines decreased in Q3 2025. The QB copper mine's short - term production capacity was affected by tailings facilities, which is expected to improve in 2027. The market's risk appetite increased due to Sino - US trade negotiations, which supported copper prices. The short - term fundamentals were weak, but the medium - term outlook was good [61][62]. - Investment advice: For unilateral trading, buy on dips; for arbitrage, wait and see [63]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Pilbara's lithium - spodumene production in Q3 2025 increased, and the sales price rose. The inventory of lithium carbonate decreased, and the demand in the energy - storage field was strong. In the short term, the price was supported, but further upward movement may depend on supply - side disturbances [64][65]. - Investment advice: Adopt a range - trading strategy in the short term; consider short - selling opportunities after the demand peaks in the medium term. For arbitrage, take profit on the previous reverse - spread and pay attention to the positive - spread opportunities of the LC2601 contract against more distant contracts [65]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The domestic new - installed photovoltaic capacity in September 2025 decreased year - on - year. The polysilicon price was stable, but the terminal demand weakened in late October. The cost of battery factories increased, and the silicon - wafer price was under pressure. However, due to policies and inventory conditions, the spot price was expected to remain stable [66][67]. - Investment advice: When the futures price is at a significant premium to the spot price, the cost - effectiveness of policy - based trading decreases. When the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, consider going long [68]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The "15th Five - Year Plan" aims to break market barriers. The operating rate of industrial silicon in some regions changed, and the inventory decreased slightly. The demand from downstream industries was for necessary purchases. The price was expected to be difficult to reduce inventory in November and may reduce inventory in December [69][70]. - Investment advice: Buying on dips for industrial silicon may be more cost - effective [70]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - Western Mining's lead and zinc production and sales increased significantly in the first three quarters of 2025. The primary lead production was restricted by raw materials, and the secondary lead production might increase. The social inventory of lead decreased, and the price was expected to be strong in the short term [71][72]. - Investment advice: Be cautious when going long; consider positive - spread opportunities for arbitrage; be cautious in international trading [72]. 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The 0 - 3 cash spread of LME zinc increased, and the LME inventory rebounded. The domestic TC quotation decreased, and the refinery profit might be under pressure. The demand was mainly oscillating, and the new special - bond issuance plan in November increased [74][75]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading; pay attention to medium - term positive - spread opportunities for arbitrage; wait and see for international trading [76]. 3.2.18 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The LME received a listing application for the "PTENICO" nickel brand. The global nickel inventory accumulation was priced into the current low valuation. The price was in a narrow - range oscillation, waiting for a breakthrough. The Philippine nickel - mine supply was affected by the rainy season, but the domestic port inventory was sufficient [77]. - Investment advice: Allocation portfolios can consider buying on dips; speculative portfolios can consider selling near - the - money puts and buying deep - out - of - the - money calls [78]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price decreased slightly, and the investment fund's net long position reached a new high. The EU failed to reach an agreement on the 90% emission - reduction target, and the carbon price was expected to oscillate in the short term [79]. - Investment advice: The EU carbon price will oscillate in the short term [80]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs increased. The sanctions on Russia by the US and the EU led to a significant increase in oil prices. The reduction of Russian oil imports by Indian refineries needs further attention [81]. - Investment advice: The risk of a decline in Russian oil supply has increased, and oil prices will be boosted by the rising risk premium in the short term [82]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The import pulp spot price was stable, with individual slight adjustments. The futures price was relatively strong, but considering the poor supply - demand situation, the upward space was limited [83][84]. - Investment advice: The upward space of pulp futures is limited [84].

Core Insights - The shift towards using the Chinese yuan for iron ore and soybean trade signifies a challenge to the long-standing dominance of the US dollar in global commodity pricing [1][6][20] - China's significant purchasing power as the largest importer of iron ore and soybeans is being leveraged to negotiate favorable trade terms, including yuan settlements [3][4][10] Iron Ore Trade - China imports over 70% of the world's iron ore, with Australia supplying more than 60% of that, traditionally priced in US dollars [3][4] - In August 2025, China proposed that long-term iron ore contracts be settled in yuan, leading to a significant concession from Australian companies like BHP and Rio Tinto, who agreed to a 30% yuan settlement for spot trades by Q4 2023 [3][4][6] - The proportion of iron ore trade settled in yuan has increased from 5% in 2023 to an expected 40% in 2024, indicating a shift in pricing power towards China [3][6][8] Soybean Trade - China has shifted its soybean imports from the US to South America, signing agreements for 9 million tons to be settled in yuan, which has drastically reduced US soybean exports to China [10][12] - The US soybean industry is feeling the pressure, with reports indicating a complete halt in soybean exports to China for the first time in seven years, prompting US farmers to seek flexible payment options, including yuan [10][12][14] - The transition to South American suppliers not only stabilizes China's supply but also mitigates currency exchange risks, enhancing operational efficiency for Chinese companies [12][14] Global Currency Dynamics - The acceptance of yuan in commodity trade is seen as a significant step towards reducing reliance on the US dollar, with the yuan's share in global transactions rising to 8.5% [6][14][16] - The trend is expected to influence other emerging markets, potentially leading to a broader adoption of yuan settlements in global trade [8][20] - The Chinese economy's strength and trade volume are key factors driving the yuan's internationalization, with a target for 10 major commodities to have over 30% of their trade settled in yuan by 2025 [16][20]

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between universities and enterprises, exemplified by the role of "Technology Vice Presidents," is driving innovation and addressing technical challenges in various industries, particularly in the development of specialized products like drone lubricants [1][4][9]. Group 1: Role of Technology Vice Presidents - The "Technology Vice President" role is designed to bridge the gap between academic research and industry needs, facilitating the transfer of knowledge and technology [1][3]. - This initiative has led to the appointment of high-level technology innovation talents from universities to assist key enterprises in sectors such as low-altitude economy, artificial intelligence, and new materials [2][6]. - The collaboration has resulted in significant advancements, such as the development of China's first two-stroke oil specifically for drones, which addresses unique operational challenges [4][5]. Group 2: Impact on Enterprises - Enterprises like 欧陆宝 have experienced accelerated innovation and product development, exemplified by the rapid creation of specialized lubricants that outperform existing standards [4][5]. - The initiative has also led to the establishment of production lines and partnerships with drone manufacturers, indicating a strong market potential for new products [5][7]. - The "Technology Vice Presidents" have provided critical support in overcoming technical barriers, enhancing the overall research and development capabilities of the companies involved [6][7]. Group 3: Broader Implications for the Region - The program aims to create a sustainable ecosystem for talent development and retention, ensuring that high-level professionals are effectively integrated into local industries [8][10]. - The initiative has facilitated the establishment of joint laboratories and internship bases, promoting a continuous cycle of talent cultivation and innovation [6][7]. - Local government support includes financial incentives and resources to enhance the collaboration between academia and industry, fostering a conducive environment for technological advancement [8][10].