| | 汇率 | 1M 升跌 | 6M 升跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 人民币指数 | 99.650 | +1.33% | +2.98% | | 美汇指数 | 99.482 | +2.75% | +1.73% | | 港币/人民币 | 0.885 | +0.05% | +3.34% | | 人民币/美元 | 0.145 | -0.04% | -2.89% | | 欧元/美元 | 1.154 | -3.12% | -1.42% | | 美元/日元 | 158.510 | -1.65% | -7.00% | | 英镑/美元 | 1.333 | -2.67% | -1.48% | | 美元/瑞士法郎 | 0.780 | -1.77% | +2.24% | 主要商品表 每日晨报│2026 年 3 月 10 日 主要市场指数表现 | | 收市价 | 上个交易日升 | YTD 升跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 恒生指数 | 25,408 | -1.35% | -0.87% | | 恒生科技指数 | 4,941 | -0.12% | -10.41% | | ...

Market Overview - The Asia-Pacific stock markets mostly rose, with the South Korean Composite Index up over 5% and the Nikkei 225 Index rising nearly 3% [2] - The A-share market also saw a strong upward trend, with the ChiNext Index and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board Index both increasing over 3% [3] - The total trading volume in the A-share market was approximately 2.42 trillion yuan, a decrease of about 250 billion yuan from the previous day [3] CPO Concept Surge - The CPO concept experienced a significant surge, with stocks like Yuanjie Technology rising nearly 14% to reach a historical high, and Tianfu Communication increasing over 10% [3][6] - Other notable performers included Guangxun Technology and Dongshan Precision, both hitting the daily limit and achieving new highs [6] - The demand for optical communication infrastructure is expected to enter a new growth cycle, driven by the increasing need for AI computing power [8] Semiconductor Sector Performance - The semiconductor sector showed strong performance, with stocks like Changguang Huaxin hitting a 20% limit up and achieving a historical high [10] - Other companies such as Youxun Co. and Huahai Chengke also saw significant increases, with gains exceeding 14% [10] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a recovery, with demand driven by TWS headphones, wearable devices, and AI servers [12] Oil Sector Decline - The oil sector faced a substantial decline, with companies like Keli Co. and Qianeng Hengxin dropping over 10% [14] - China Petroleum fell over 7%, reflecting broader market concerns regarding geopolitical tensions affecting oil supply [14][16] - The recent geopolitical risks, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz, have led to increased volatility in oil prices, with potential for further escalation if conflicts persist [17]

Group 1 - The article highlights a significant drop in international oil prices, with WTI crude at $86.68 per barrel and ICE Brent at $90.78 per barrel, down over $30 from the previous day's peak [1][2] - Major oil-producing countries, including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait, are reportedly cutting oil production by up to 6.7 million barrels per day, with Saudi Arabia reducing its output by 2 to 2.5 million barrels per day and Iraq by approximately 2.9 million barrels per day [2] - The volatility in oil prices has had a substantial impact on global capital markets, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average reversing a drop of over 1,000 points to close up 239 points, or 0.5%, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also showing significant rebounds [2] Group 2 - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East raises uncertainties about the future of oil prices and the global economy, with analysts suggesting that prolonged conflict could worsen the situation [2][4] - U.S. President Trump indicated that military actions against Iran would not conclude soon, and any disruption to oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz would provoke a severe U.S. response [4][5] - The U.S. government is considering the release of strategic oil reserves to address the current energy market situation, with the U.S. holding the largest strategic reserves among IEA member countries, totaling over 700 million barrels [7]

其中，沙特阿拉伯将石油产量削减200万至250万桶/天，伊拉克将原油产量削减约290万桶/天。 沙特、阿联酋、伊拉克和科威特据悉削减至多670万桶/天的原油产量。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Production resumption is relatively moderate, with the growth rate of the resumption rate narrowing compared to the same period last lunar year. The resumption of real - estate projects is better than that of non - real - estate projects, showing a "faster in the south, slower in the north" pattern. Industrial production resumption is also mild, and the marginal change in the national production rhythm after the weakening of northern weather disturbances needs further attention [3][9]. - Land transactions have rebounded significantly, but the growth of new and second - hand housing transactions has narrowed. The land premium rate in 100 cities has reached a high level since 2021. New - home sales in first - tier cities remain relatively strong, while those in second - and third - tier cities have declined. Second - hand housing sales in 15 cities first increased and then decreased. The "small spring" of the real estate market in March 2026 and the possibility of incremental real - estate optimization policies in each city need continuous attention [3][10]. - International energy prices such as crude oil and natural gas have risen significantly. As of March 6, the IPE Brent crude oil futures settlement price increased by 27.9% from last Friday, and the UK natural gas price rose by 74.9%. Due to the attack on Iranian oil facilities and the near - blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the development of the Middle East situation and the transmission of rising oil prices to domestic PPI need to be focused on [2][11]. 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Catalog 1.1 Financial Market - Bond indices closed higher, and the Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index rose significantly. Equity indices declined across the board. The gold - copper ratio increased slightly, the gold - silver ratio rebounded, the gold price fluctuated upward, and the silver price declined [12][14][16]. 1.2 Industrial Production 1.2.1 Power Generation - Coal consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces rebounded significantly, and the thermal coal price first increased and then decreased [18][19]. 1.2.2 Coking - The operating rate of coking enterprises declined marginally, while the prices of coking coal and coke futures increased [20]. 1.2.3 Steel - The output of rebar increased, and the futures prices of iron ore and rebar rose. The inventory of major steel products continued to increase, and the arrival volume of iron ore at six northern ports continued to decline [23][25][28]. 1.2.4 Building Materials - The capacity utilization rate of cement clinker increased slightly, and the copper and aluminum inventories increased significantly. The national cement price index declined marginally, and the glass price first decreased and then increased [28][29][31]. 1.2.5 Chemical Industry - The methanol operating rate decreased slightly, while the prices of crude oil and natural gas increased significantly. The operating rate of soda ash fluctuated upward, the operating rate of polyester filament in the Yangtze River Delta region rebounded, and the PTA operating rate increased significantly [40][41][42]. 1.2.6 Automobile - The operating rates of automobile semi - steel tires and all - steel tires increased significantly [45][46]. 1.3 Resumption of Work and Production - The resumption progress of 10,692 construction sites across the country was the same as that of the same period last lunar year. The labor attendance rate of real - estate projects was better than that of non - real - estate projects year - on - year [47][48]. 1.4 Logistics and Transportation 1.4.1 Freight - The road logistics freight rate index increased marginally, and the railway transportation volume and postal parcel collection volume both increased [48][49][51]. 1.4.2 Passenger Transport - The subway passenger volume returned to the pre - holiday level, and the number of domestic flights decreased [52][53]. 1.5 Terminal Demand 1.5.1 Credit - The negative spread between bill rediscount and certificate of deposit first narrowed and then widened, and the rediscount rate of six - month national stock bills declined [54][55][56]. 1.5.2 Real Estate - The land premium rate of 100 - city land transactions increased significantly, and the new - home transaction area first increased and then decreased. The new - home transactions in first - tier cities remained relatively strong, while those in second - and third - tier cities declined. The second - hand housing transaction area of 15 cities first increased and then decreased [57][65][69]. 1.5.3 Building Construction - The apparent demand for rebar rebounded, and the proportion of profitable steel mills declined slightly [69][70]. 1.5.4 Consumption - The total number of movie screenings decreased seasonally, and vegetable prices declined significantly. The average wholesale price of pork continued to decline, and the average wholesale price of fruits increased marginally [70][73][75]. 1.5.5 Export - The SCFI freight rate increased, and the port cargo throughput rebounded. The SCFI index increased significantly, and the CCFI index of most routes turned from decline to increase month - on - month [83].

中东局势升级 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可[2011] 1288号 更多精彩内容请关注 格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 时间：2026.3 u 霍尔木兹海峡持续被封锁在中东产油国引发连锁反应 数据来源：Wind，格林大华期货 u 石油设施遇袭或储油空间快满了。卡塔尔停产，伊拉克率因储油罐接近饱和而被迫限产，随后，科威特 石油公司、阿联酋阿布扎比国家石油公司宣布减产。摩根大通估计，海峡到上周五仍未恢复开放：该地 区日产量降幅可能超过400万桶，到3月底，降幅可能接近900万桶。这相当于全球需求的近十分之一。 u 全球LNG市场几乎没有备用产能。卡塔尔是全球最大的LNG出口国。卡塔尔能源公司3月2日宣布停止该设 施LNG生产，并宣布不可抗力。年产能达7700万吨，约占全球LNG供应的20%。对伊战争预计持续四到五周， 市场主流情景假设的供应损失已经接近800万吨。美国虽是全球最大LNG出口国，但备用产能估计只有约 5%；挪威表示其天然气生产已经接近满负荷；澳大利亚的备用产能同样有限。 航运动态 ü 船舶追踪数据显示，过去24小时内仅有一艘与伊朗相关的散货船驶出波斯湾，无任何船只从反 方向入湾，商业航运实 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - This week, the conflict between the US and Iran has significantly escalated, and the situation has deteriorated more rapidly than market expectations, having a substantial impact on crude oil supply. The key issue is the long - term interruption of passage through the Strait of Hormuz, leading to preventive production cuts in Middle Eastern oil fields, with an unpredictable duration. If the current situation persists for two weeks, the scope of oil production interruptions in Gulf countries will expand significantly. If the passage through the Strait of Hormuz does not improve next week, the oil price will break through the upper limit, with the target price rising to $100 - $120 per barrel [5]. 3. Summary by Directory a. Oil Price Data - From March 2 to March 6, 2026, WTI crude oil rose from $71.23 to $90.90, an increase of $9.89; BRENT crude oil rose from $77.74 to $92.69, an increase of $7.28; DUBAI crude oil rose from $76.53 to $99.14, an increase of $9.83. Other oil - related products also showed varying degrees of price changes [2]. b. Daily News - Israeli Defense Minister Katz claimed that the Israeli military killed Iranian Supreme Leader's military secretary Abu - Kasim Babaiyan, but the Iranian side has not confirmed this [2]. - The US has cancelled the navigation warning for commercial ships to avoid the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf, and another maritime warning against Iran has expired [3]. - US media reported that Trump's options for striking Iran include sending special forces to destroy Iranian nuclear facilities [3]. - Iraq's current daily oil production is about 1.7 - 1.8 million barrels, down from about 4.3 million barrels per day before the conflict [3]. - The Israeli Energy Minister said they might bomb Iranian refineries and power stations [3]. - The Iranian Revolutionary Guard and the Iranian military said they would expand the scale and intensity of retaliatory attacks in the next few hours and days [3]. - The US government has discussed the possibility of seizing Iran's strategic oil export terminal, Kharg Island, which accounts for about 90% of Iran's crude oil exports [4]. - The New York Times reported that Iran still retains 50% of its missile program's strength, and Iran is prepared for at least six more months of war [4]. - Trump said there is currently no plan to deploy ground troops in Iran but might increase the military budget to $1.5 trillion and consider expanding the scope of strikes [5]. - The Israeli Defense Forces have attacked Iranian oil infrastructure, launching air strikes on 30 Iranian oil tanks [5]. - Kuwait Petroleum Corporation has implemented preventive measures, reducing crude oil production and refining scale due to Iranian attacks [5]. - Saudi Arabia has warned Iran that it will take retaliatory measures if attacked again [5]. - The Iranian Revolutionary Guard claimed to have hit a Marshall Islands - flagged oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz [5]. c. Inventory - In the week of February 27, US crude oil exports decreased by 316,000 barrels per day to 3.997 million barrels per day [5]. - US domestic crude oil production decreased by 600 barrels to 13.696 million barrels per day [5]. - Commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 3.475 million barrels to 439 million barrels, a 0.8% increase [5]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 21.02 million barrels per day, a 4.24% increase compared to the same period last year [5]. - The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory remained unchanged at 415.4 million barrels [5]. - US imports of commercial crude oil (excluding strategic reserves) were 6.324 million barrels per day, a decrease of 335,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week [5].

Group 1 - The Lebanese Hezbollah launched missiles at an Israeli military factory in response to Israeli attacks on Lebanese towns [1][3] - Hezbollah also targeted Israeli settlements and military gathering points in northern Israel [3][4] Group 2 - Russian President Putin emphasized the importance of energy supply security and expressed willingness to cooperate with European countries on oil and gas supplies [6][7] - Putin warned that reliance on oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz could soon be completely disrupted, leading to increased oil and gas prices [6][7] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs reported that the ongoing conflict in Iran poses significant energy risks, adjusting their stock rating to tactical neutrality and favoring cash [9] - The report indicated that if oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz remains low, prices could exceed previous peaks from 2008 and 2022 [9] Group 4 - Economic forecasts suggest that inflation rates could average 3% by 2026, higher than the previous year's average of 2.6%, impacting the Federal Reserve's ability to provide market support [9][10] - Analysts predict that sustained high oil prices may lead to a delayed easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve [10]

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) fell by 348 points or 1.4%, closing at 25,408 points[1] - The Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) decreased by 27 points or 0.7%, ending at 4,096 points[1] - The S&P 500 rose by 55 points or 0.8%, reaching 6,795 points[2] Oil Price Movements - Oil prices surged above $100 per barrel due to production cuts by Middle Eastern countries[1] - New York crude oil prices peaked at nearly $120, then dropped 5% to $86[2] - Brent crude oil prices increased by $10.7 or 11.5%, closing at $103.39[2] Currency and Market Operations - The RMB/USD midpoint was reported at 6.9158, down 133 pips from the previous day[1] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 48.5 billion RMB reverse repo operation at a rate of 1.4%[1] - A-shares trading volume increased significantly to nearly 26.5 trillion RMB compared to the previous trading day[1] Company Performance - HKT Trust reported a loss of 25 million HKD for the year ending December, compared to a profit of 6 million HKD the previous year[3] - The company declared a final dividend of 5.21 HKD per share, unchanged from the previous year[3]

Market Overview - European stocks are expected to decline, with the U.K.'s FTSE index projected to open 0.5% lower, Germany's DAX down 1%, France's CAC 40 down 0.75%, and Italy's FTSE MIB down 0.9% [1] - Asian markets showed a rebound, while U.S. stock futures experienced a decline [2] Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices experienced a significant drop, with Brent crude down approximately 6.2% at $92.71 per barrel and U.S. crude down 6.5% at $88.49 per barrel, following a surge past $100 [3] - The decline in oil prices occurred after U.S. President Trump's comments regarding the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, where he indicated a readiness to act to ensure the passage remains open [2][3] Geopolitical Context - Iran has warned that oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz "must be very careful," indicating heightened tensions in the region [4] - Trump's statement suggested a potential U.S. action to seize control of the strait if Iran disrupts oil flows, which could further impact oil prices and market stability [3]