金十数据6月24日讯，英国工业联合会周二表示，英国制造业本月订单萎缩幅度为1月以来最大，销售价 格预期降温。英国6月CBI工业订单差值从5月份的-30降至-33。而过去3个月的产出指标有所改善，但仍 处于收缩区间。英国工业联合会首席经济学家Ben Jones表示："英国制造业正面临巨大压力，要应对能 源成本高企、劳动力成本上升、普遍存在的技能短缺，以及动荡的全球经济环境。"英国工业联合会还 表示，制造商对价格上涨的净预期降至2月份以来的最低水平。 英国工业联合会：6月份英国工厂的订单降幅更大 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that the CBI industrial orders balance in the UK for June is -33, marking the lowest level since January [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that the CBI industrial price expectations balance for June in the UK is reported at 19, which is below the expected value of 25 and lower than the previous value of 26 [1]

Core Points - Malaysia's Ministry of Trade has signed an economic partnership agreement with Switzerland, Norway, Iceland, and Liechtenstein [1] - The agreement guarantees that over 90% of Malaysia's export products will be exempt from tariffs in the long term, including all industrial products [1]

Group 1 - The market risk appetite remains challenged due to various uncertainties, with significant net outflows from US equity funds reaching a new high since March [1] - The Federal Reserve maintains its cautious stance, keeping the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50% while adjusting economic forecasts, indicating uncertainty in growth and inflation [2][3] - The retail sales data showed a 0.9% month-on-month decline in May, which was below expectations, while core retail sales increased by 0.4%, reflecting steady economic momentum [2] Group 2 - The US stock market experienced a narrow range of movements, with the healthcare sector declining by 2.7% and the energy sector rising by 1.1% due to recovering oil prices [5] - There was a significant outflow of $18.43 billion from US equities, the highest since March, driven by geopolitical factors and uncertainties surrounding US tariffs [6] - Market sentiment has shifted to a wait-and-see approach, with the bullish momentum turning into sideways consolidation, although the probability of a significant market drop remains low unless geopolitical tensions escalate [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the potential impact of stablecoins on the financial system, highlighting their role as a bridge between decentralized finance (DeFi) and traditional finance [3] - The recent passage of stablecoin legislation in the United States and Hong Kong marks a significant step in establishing regulatory frameworks for stablecoins, filling a regulatory gap in this area [3] - Stablecoins are seen as crucial infrastructure for DeFi, and their regulation by major economies like the US and Hong Kong indicates a move towards integrating cryptocurrencies into the mainstream financial system [3] Group 2 - The article discusses the implications of the recent global trade tensions and the unusual market behaviors observed, such as traditional safe-haven assets no longer being secure and the reversal of correlations between US Treasury bonds and other assets [7] - It suggests that these anomalies can be better understood through the lens of a restructuring international monetary order, where shifts in capital flows and market dynamics overshadow individual asset fundamentals [7] - The report focuses on the driving factors and operational patterns of this restructuring, exploring its effects on global asset pricing and policy implications [7] Group 3 - The outlook for the second half of 2025 indicates a convergence of economic momentum between the US and non-US regions, primarily driven by a slowdown in the US economy [11] - Non-US regions are expected to have some advantages due to relatively loose monetary policies and remaining output gaps, although recovery may face uncertainties and constraints [11] - The article expresses a more favorable view on non-US opportunities, particularly in the European market, while suggesting a balanced allocation strategy across regions [11] Group 4 - The article analyzes the impact of Hibor (Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate) on the Hong Kong stock market, noting that Hibor's significant decline since early May indicates a temporary liquidity surplus in Hong Kong dollars [15] - This liquidity surplus is believed to influence market trends, especially in growth sectors like new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals, despite the overall market underperforming compared to global benchmarks [15] - The report raises questions about the mechanisms through which Hibor's decline affects the stock market and speculates on its future trajectory [15]

Group 1 - The core index, the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen IoT Theme Index, has shown a decline of 0.01% to 4146.62 points with a trading volume of 58.01 billion yuan [1] - Over the past month, the index has decreased by 2.24%, and over the last three months, it has fallen by 11.73%, while year-to-date it has increased by 2.30% [1] - The index comprises companies involved in IoT-related information collection, transmission, and computing, reflecting the overall performance of IoT-related listed companies in the mainland and Hong Kong markets [1] Group 2 - The top ten weighted companies in the index include Luxshare Precision (5.52%), Midea Group (5.19%), Xiaomi Group-W (5.14%), Tencent Holdings (5.03%), Meituan-W (4.47%), Li Auto-W (4.38%), Xpeng Motors-W (4.13%), China Telecom (4.02%), Huichuan Technology (3.82%), and Zhongji Xuchuang (3.77%) [1] - The market share of the index's holdings is distributed as follows: Shenzhen Stock Exchange 41.44%, Hong Kong Stock Exchange 32.67%, and Shanghai Stock Exchange 25.90% [1] Group 3 - The industry composition of the index's holdings shows that Information Technology accounts for 45.69%, Communication Services 25.15%, Consumer Discretionary 21.19%, Industrials 5.61%, and Healthcare 2.35% [2] - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [2] - Public funds tracking the SHS IoT index include Tianhong CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen IoT Theme Connection A, Tianhong CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen IoT Theme Connection C, and Tianhong CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen IoT Theme ETF [2]

Core Viewpoint - The strategist team led by Jill Carey Hall indicates that U.S. bank clients have adopted a defensive stance towards U.S. stocks for the first time in six weeks, with net inflows into defensive sectors and outflows from cyclical sectors [1] Summary by Category - **Client Behavior** - Clients overall are net buyers, with a total net inflow of $800 million [1] - **Sector Performance** - Inflows were observed in technology, energy, healthcare, and consumer staples stocks [1] - The largest outflows were from consumer discretionary stocks, followed by industrials and utilities [1]

Market Overview - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks exhibited a narrow fluctuation pattern, with major indices showing muted performance [1] - A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index slightly down by 0.19% to 3382.14 points, while the Shenzhen Component remained flat and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.14% [1] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index dipped by 0.13% to 24028.83 points, with the Hang Seng Tech Index and the China Enterprises Index also experiencing slight declines [1] Industry Performance - A-shares displayed a clear rotation in technology themes, driven by a significant overnight surge of over 283% in brain-computer interface concepts in the US market [2] - The stablecoin concept remained active due to expectations of major policy announcements in Hong Kong, while the solid-state battery sector gained traction ahead of an industry forum [2] - In contrast, the healthcare sector in Hong Kong faced pressure, with some pharmaceutical companies experiencing volatility due to new drug development progress [2] - The durable goods and consumer services sectors also showed weakness, while the industrial sector saw strength, particularly among leading optical technology firms [2] Driving Factors - The structural market dynamics in A-shares are influenced by three main factors: external market sentiment, policy and event catalysts, and capital rotation strategies [2] - The healthcare sector's adjustments in Hong Kong are linked to individual company events and market sentiment fluctuations, while the industrial sector benefits from domestic growth-supporting policies [2] Future Outlook - The macro environment and policy direction remain critical, with steady growth in industrial output and consumption providing fundamental support for the market [3] - The People's Bank of China has conducted two reverse repurchase operations this month, injecting a net of 200 billion yuan into the market, indicating a generally ample liquidity environment [3] - Short-term market trends may continue to exhibit oscillatory dynamics, with high-position themes in A-shares facing increased volatility and the healthcare sector in Hong Kong under valuation pressure [3] - Key areas for mid-term investment focus include AI computing power, solid-state batteries, and commercial aerospace, as these sectors are viewed as priorities for institutional investment [3] - The evolution of core market contradictions, such as the timing of Federal Reserve policy shifts and developments in the domestic real estate market, will significantly influence mid-term market direction [3]

Economic Growth Indicators - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year-on-year, marking a recovery in growth[2] - Industrial added value growth in May fell to 5.8%, while the service sector's growth rose to 6.2%[6] - Fixed asset investment growth in May dropped to 2.9%, indicating weakened economic support[6] Demand and Production Concerns - Export delivery value growth remained below 1% in May, reflecting weak production related to exports[6] - The production-sales ratio fell to 95.9%, the lowest level for the same period since 2001[6] - High growth in consumption carries risks of overextension, with infrastructure investment growth continuing to decline[6] Price and Inflation Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 3.3% year-on-year in May, the lowest since August 2023[6] - The average price of second-hand homes in 70 cities fell by 0.5% month-on-month, the weakest since November 2024[6] Future Economic Outlook - Q2 GDP growth is expected to stabilize above 5%, better than market expectations of 4.9%[6] - The interaction between policy measures and economic growth will determine market risk appetite moving forward[6]