行业 沥青日报 日期 2024 年 6 月 6 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（碳市场工业硅） 研究员： ...

同比增长：2.8% 增速较上一年同期变化：高18.1个百分点 摘要：【图】2025年1-3月河南省燃料油产量统计分析 2025年3月燃料油产量统计： 燃料油产量：5.1 万吨 燃料油产量：15.4 万吨 同比增长：10.5% 增速较上一年同期变化：高57.7个百分点 据统计，2025年1－3月，河南省规模以上工业企业燃料油产量与上年同期相比增长了10.5%，达15.4万 吨，增速较上一年同期高57.7个百分点，增速较同期全国高20.3个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业 燃料油产量1084万吨的比重为1.4%。详见下图： 据统计，2025年3月河南省规模以上工业企业燃料油产量与上年同期相比增长了2.8%，达5.1万吨，增速 较上一年同期高18.1个百分点，增速较同期全国高4.5个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业燃料油产量 390.4万吨的比重为1.3%。 详见下图： 图1：河南省燃料油产量分月（当月值）统计图 2025年1-3月燃料油产量统计： 图2：河南省燃料油产量分月（累计值）统计图 注：主要能源产品产量月度统计范围为规模以上工业法人单位，即年主营业务收入2000万元及以上的工 业企业。 产业调研网为您提供 ...

沥青早报 Js 加蒙期货 研究中心能化团队 2025/6/5 | | 指标 | 5/6 | 5/27 | 5/30 | 6/3 | 6/4 | 日度变化 | 周度変化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU主力合约 | 3361 | 3516 | 3457 | 3482 | 3506 | 24 | -10 | | | BU06 | 3361 | 3523 | 3452 | 3479 | 3503 | 24 | -20 | | | BU09 | 3286 | 3465 | 3414 | 3456 | 3469 | 13 | 4 | | | BU12 | 3143 | 3278 | 3237 | 3291 | 3302 | 11 | 24 | | 程南 | BU03 | 3164 | 3234 | 3201 | 3260 | 3263 | 3 | 29 | | | 成交量 | 348243 | 458674 | 579926 | 406179 | 364085 | -42094 | -94589 | | | 持仓量 | 36 ...

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风险 1、 6月4日地区价格：山东市场，4530—4690；东北市场，4060—4150 ；华北市场，4500—4580 ；华东市场， 4350—4600 ；沿江市场，4600—4810；西北市场，4300—4500 ；华南市场，4600—4720。数据来源：卓创资讯 2、\t2025年7月上半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷607美元/吨，涨4美元/吨，丁烷547美元/吨，涨4美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4804元/吨，涨33元/吨，丁烷4329元/吨，涨33元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年7月上半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷610美元/吨，涨4美元/吨，丁烷550美元/吨，涨4美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4827元/吨，涨32元/吨，丁烷4353元/吨，涨33元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 欧佩克会议后原油价格震荡反弹，对能源板块商品形成提振。目前来看，LPG市场整体氛围延续弱势，供需格局 仍偏宽松，昨日华东现货价格再度下跌。供应方面，海外供应维持充裕，美国出口维持高位，中东供应也有望跟 随欧佩克增产进度而回升。此外，关税下调后美国对我国发货有所回升，但还需要关注美国对乙烷、丁烷的出口 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risks and API inventory decline drive up oil prices, while multiple PX device restarts increase supply, reducing PX de - stocking volume. With strong polyester production cut sentiment, short - term PX price and PXN bottom have support, and PX will continue to de - stock in the next few months [2] - PTA de - stocking slows, downstream resists high basis, and PTA spot basis weakens. In the short - term, PTA price follows the cost side. Polyester new capacity runs stably with high start - up, but polyester production cut is being executed, and PTA price will run in a range [2] - Polyester filament start - up load declines, market supply increases slightly, and foreign trade has more quotes and samples. PTA device maintenance is still high, and polyester starts production cut [2] - Polyester bottle - chip market is weak, with supply quotes down and low downstream procurement intention. Bottle - chip start - up declines slightly, and downstream digests inventory [2] - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will run weakly [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On June 4, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settlement price was $62.85/barrel (- 0.88%), Brent crude oil was $64.86/barrel (- 1.17%), naphtha in CFR Japan was $562.63/ton (+ 0.18%), and isomeric xylene FOB Korea was $699/ton (- 0.07%) [1] - **PX**: PX CFR China main port was $825/ton (+ 0.26%), CZCE PX main contract closing price was 6,578 yuan/ton (+ 0.83%), and settlement price was 6,568 yuan/ton (- 1.02%) [1] - **PTA**: CZCE TA main contract closing price was 4,670 yuan/ton (+ 0.91%), settlement price was 4,670 yuan/ton (- 0.81%), domestic PTA spot price was 4,863 yuan/ton (- 1.06%) [1] - **PR**: CZCE PR main contract closing price was 5,926 yuan/ton (+ 0.24%), settlement price was 5,924 yuan/ton (- 1.00%), polyester bottle - chip in the East China market was 5,920 yuan/ton (- 0.67%) [1] - **Downstream**: CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,515 yuan/ton (+ 0.15%), and polyester chip was 5,890 yuan/ton (- 0.51%) [2] Spread Information - On June 4, 2025, PTA near - far month spread was 212 yuan/ton (increased by 32 yuan/ton), PTA basis was 200 yuan/ton (decreased by 77 yuan/ton), PX basis was 198 yuan/ton (decreased by 54 yuan/ton), PR basis in East China was - 6 yuan/ton (decreased by 54 yuan/ton), and in South China was 94 yuan/ton (decreased by 24 yuan/ton) [1] Production and Sales and Start - up Rate - **Start - up Rate**: On June 4, 2025, PX start - up rate was 81.45% (unchanged), PTA factory load rate was 80.84% (unchanged), polyester factory was 89.63% (- 0.08%), bottle - chip factory was 83.82% (unchanged), and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms were 69.80% (unchanged) [1] - **Production and Sales Rate**: On June 4, 2025, polyester filament production and sales rate was 36% (- 3%), polyester staple fiber was 60% (- 12%), and polyester chip was 49% (- 52%) [1] Device Information - A 1.2 - million - ton PTA device in the northwest plans to restart between May 15 and 20 [2] Important News - On June 4, geopolitical risks drove up oil prices, and API inventory decline was favorable to oil prices. Multiple PX device restarts increased supply, and polyester production cut sentiment was strong [2] - PTA de - stocking slowed, downstream resisted high basis, and polyester new capacity ran stably with high start - up [2] - Polyester filament start - up load declined, foreign trade had more quotes and samples, and PTA device maintenance was still high [2] - Polyester bottle - chip market was weak, with supply quotes down and low downstream procurement intention [2] Trading Strategy - PTA, PX, and PR contracts closed lower on June 4. Due to geopolitical and economic concerns, international oil prices fell. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will run weakly (PX view score: - 1, PTA view score: - 1, PR view score: - 1) [2]

2025年3月石脑油产量分析： 摘要：【图】2025年1-3月广东省石脑油产量统计分析 2025年1-3月石脑油产量分析： 据国家统计局数据，在2025年的前3个月，广东省规模以上工业企业石脑油产量累计达到了315.8万吨， 与2024年同期的数据相比，增长了10.9%，增速较2024年同期低19.1个百分点，增速放缓，增速较同期 全国高11.6个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业石脑油产量1988.5万吨的比重为15.9%。 图表：广东省石脑油产量分月（累计值）统计 产业调研网为您提供更多 石油化工行业最新动态 石油行业监测及发展趋势 化工未来发展趋势预测 日化现状及发展前景 润滑油发展前景趋势分析 汽油的现状和发展趋势 柴油行业现状与发展趋势 橡胶市场现状及前景分析 塑料市场调研与发展前景 化妆品发展现状及前景预测清洁护肤市场调研及发展趋势 单独看2025年3月份，广东省规模以上工业企业石脑油产量达到了110.1万吨，与2024年同期的数据相 比，3月份的产量增长了15.1%，增速较2024年同期高20.0个百分点，增速较同期全国高15.7个百分点， 约占同期全国规模以上企业石脑油产量674.4万吨的比重为 ...

摘要：【图】2025年3月上海市原油加工量数据分析 2025年3月原油加工量统计： 原油加工量：165.1 万吨 同比增长：-22.4% 2025年1-3月原油加工量统计： 原油加工量：544.6 万吨 同比增长：-9.1% 增速较上一年同期变化：低11.2个百分点 增速较上一年同期变化：低26.3个百分点 据统计，2025年3月上海市规模以上工业企业原油加工量与上年同期相比下降了22.4%，达165.1万吨， 增速较上一年同期低26.3个百分点，增速较同期全国低22.8个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业原油 加工量6305.8万吨的比重为2.6%。 详见下图： 图1：上海市原油加工量分月（当月值）统计图 据统计，2025年1－3月，上海市规模以上工业企业原油加工量与上年同期相比下降了9.1%，达544.6万 吨，增速较上一年同期低11.2个百分点，增速较同期全国低10.7个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业 原油加工量18224.8万吨的比重为3.0%。详见下图： 图2：上海市原油加工量分月（累计值）统计图 注：主要能源产品产量月度统计范围为规模以上工业法人单位，即年主营业务收入2000万元及以上的工 业企业 ...

Group 1 - In the first three months of 2025, the crude oil processing volume of large-scale industrial enterprises in Zhejiang Province reached 2,007.9 thousand tons, representing a 6.0% increase compared to the same period in 2024, although the growth rate slowed down by 4.4 percentage points compared to 2024 [1] - The crude oil processing volume in March 2025 alone was 693.8 thousand tons, showing a 5.4% increase year-on-year, with a slowdown of 3.2 percentage points compared to March 2024 [2] - The crude oil processing volume in Zhejiang accounted for 11.0% of the national total processing volume of 18,224.8 thousand tons during the same period [1][2] Group 2 - The growth rate of crude oil processing in Zhejiang Province was 4.4 percentage points higher than the national average during the first three months of 2025 [1] - In March 2025, the growth rate of crude oil processing in Zhejiang was 5.0 percentage points higher than the national average of 6,305.8 thousand tons [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - On June 3, geopolitical risks in the international crude oil market increased, and the wildfires in Canada provided some support for oil prices, but the OPEC+ production increase plan suppressed oil prices. Multiple PX units restarted or increased their loads recently, increasing supply and reducing the overall destocking volume of PX. With strong polyester production cut sentiment, the market sentiment was affected. However, the spot market remained short of goods, so in the short term, the bottom of PX prices and PXN would still be supported. In the medium - term, PX would continue to destock in the next few months [2]. - PTA prices declined. Although geopolitical issues pushed up crude oil prices, the atmosphere of domestic bulk chemicals was weak. The destocking speed of PTA slowed down, and the spot basis weakened. Polyester new capacity ran smoothly with high operating rates, having a good rigid demand for PTA. In the short term, PTA spot prices would mainly follow the cost side. The operating load of polyester filament further declined, and the overall market sales were average, with most factories still having inventory pressure. During the tariff suspension period, the foreign trade market showed more quotations and samples, and some traders said there were large potential orders [2]. - The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets declined. Polyester raw materials and bottle - chip futures weakened. The supply side of bottle - chips mostly kept their quotes stable, and the downstream terminal buying enthusiasm was low, resulting in a stalemate in market transactions. Recently, some units in East China were under maintenance, the operating rate of bottle - chips decreased, but the overall market supply was still abundant [2]. - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will fluctuate. (PX view score: 0, PTA view score: 0, PR view score: 0) [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream Products**: On June 3, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $63.41 per barrel, up 4.31% from the previous value; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was $65.63 per barrel, up 2.71%. The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $561.63 per ton, up 0.56%. The spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB South Korea) was $699.00 per ton, down 1.34%. The spot price of p - xylene (PX, CFR China Main Port) was $824.00 per ton, down 2.06% [1]. - **PTA Products**: The closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,628 yuan per ton, down 1.53%; the settlement price was 4,708 yuan per ton, down 0.34%. The closing price of the CZCE TA near - month contract was 4,840 yuan per ton, down 2.02%; the settlement price was 4,888 yuan per ton, down 1.05%. The domestic spot price of PTA was 4,915 yuan per ton, down 0.55%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,905 yuan per ton, down 0.71%, and the CCFEI price index of external PTA was $634.00 per ton on June 2, up 0.32%. The near - far month spread was 180 yuan per ton, a decrease of 36 yuan, and the basis was 277 yuan per ton, an increase of 37 yuan [1]. - **PX Products**: The closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,524 yuan per ton, down 1.42%; the settlement price was 6,636 yuan per ton, down 0.18%. The closing price of the CZCE PX near - month contract was 7,000 yuan per ton, up 6.74%; the settlement price was 6,822 yuan per ton, up 0.56%. The domestic spot price of p - xylene was 6,857 yuan per ton, unchanged. The spot price (mid - price) of p - xylene (CFR Taiwan, China) was $824.00 per ton, down 2.25%, and the spot price (mid - price) of p - xylene (FOB South Korea) was $799.00 per ton, down 2.32%. The PXN spread was $262.38 per ton, down 7.23%, the PX - MX spread was $125.00 per ton, down 5.89%, and the basis was 333 yuan per ton, an increase of 94 yuan [1]. - **PR Products**: The closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,912 yuan per ton, down 1.17%; the settlement price was 5,984 yuan per ton, down 0.30%. The closing price of the CZCE PR near - month contract was 5,950 yuan per ton, down 0.90%; the settlement price was 5,974 yuan per ton, down 0.50%. The market price (mainstream price) of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 5,960 yuan per ton, down 0.42%, and in the South China market was 6,030 yuan per ton, down 0.33%. The basis in the East China market was 48 yuan per ton, an increase of 45 yuan, and in the South China market was 118 yuan per ton, an increase of 50 yuan [1]. - **Downstream Products**: The CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,925 yuan per ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of polyester POY was 7,250 yuan per ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of polyester FDY68D was 7,250 yuan per ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of polyester FDY150D was 7,200 yuan per ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,505 yuan per ton, up 0.08%; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5,920 yuan per ton, up 0.25%; the CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 5,960 yuan per ton, down 0.42% [2]. Operating Conditions - The operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 81.45% on June 3, up 2.27 percentage points from the previous value. The PTA industry chain load rate of PTA factories was 80.84%, up 3.01 percentage points; the PTA industry chain load rate of polyester factories was 89.71%, down 0.23 percentage points; the PTA industry chain load rate of bottle - chip factories was 83.82%, down 0.37 percentage points; the PTA industry chain load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 69.80%, unchanged [1]. - The sales rate of polyester filament was 39.00% on June 3, up 5 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 72.00%, up 13 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 101.00%, up 53 percentage points [1] Device Information - A 1.2 - million - ton PTA unit in the northwest planned to restart between May 15 and 20 [2] Trading Strategies - PTA opened high and closed low. The TA2509 contract closed at 4,623 yuan per ton, down 2.03%, with an intraday trading volume of 1.33 million lots. PX was weakly affected by costs. The PX2509 contract closed at 6,524 yuan per ton, down 1.87%, with an intraday trading volume of 25,040 lots. PR followed the cost trend. The 2507 contract closed at 5,912 yuan per ton, down 1.50%, with an intraday trading volume of 32,800 lots. It was expected that PX, PTA, and PR would fluctuate (PX view score: 0, PTA view score: 0, PR view score: 0) [2]