Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Coking coal and coke: Bullish [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Oscillating [2] - Soda ash: Rebounding [2] - CSI 50 Index Futures/Options: Oscillating [2] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Oscillating [3] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Downward [3] - 2-year Treasury Bond: Oscillating [3] - 5-year Treasury Bond: Oscillating [3] - 10-year Treasury Bond: Rebounding [3] - Gold: High-level oscillation [3] - Silver: High-level oscillation [3] - Logs: Range-bound oscillation [6] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Bearish outlook [6] - Edible oils: Wide-range oscillation [6] - Meal products: Oscillating with a bearish bias [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Live pigs: Oscillating with a bullish bias [7] - Rubber: Oscillating [10] - PX: Wait-and-see [10] - PTA: Oscillating [10] - MEG: Wait-and-see [10] - PR: Wait-and-see [10] - PF: Wait-and-see [10] Core Views - The Fed's interest rate cut has landed as expected, and after the National Day holiday, trading focus will gradually shift to the real situation. The short-term sentiment in the iron ore market has been boosted, and the supply of iron ore has returned. The fundamentals of iron ore in the short term have limited contradictions [2]. - The news of coal mine shutdowns and the increasing expectation of "anti-involution" have jointly pushed up the double-coke futures. The supply of coking coal is likely to be weaker than last year, and the demand for double-coke has rebounded [2]. - The production of finished steel products has slightly declined, but the supply remains at a relatively high level. The total demand is difficult to show an inverse seasonal performance, and a pattern of high in the front and low in the back will be formed [2]. - The rise of glass futures is mainly driven by the strengthening of upstream fuel prices and the warming of macro sentiment. The supply-demand contradiction in the glass market has not been substantially improved [2]. - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. The Fed's interest rate policy and risk aversion sentiment may be short-term disturbing factors [3]. - The supply pressure of logs is generally not large, and the daily average shipment volume has slightly increased. It is expected that logs will oscillate within a range [6]. - The price of pulp is expected to consolidate at the bottom. The double-offset paper industry is in a stage of overcapacity, with stable short-term supply and poor demand [6]. - After a previous sharp rise, edible oils may oscillate in a wide range in the short term. Meal products are expected to continue oscillating with a bearish bias [6]. - The average trading weight of live pigs has continued to rise slightly. The开工 rate of key slaughtering enterprises has increased slightly, and the supply of large pigs has increased, which may put some pressure on prices [7]. - The supply pressure of natural rubber has decreased, the demand has increased, and the inventory has continued to decline. The price of natural rubber may oscillate in a wide range [10]. - The supply and demand of PX and PTA have both increased, but the terminal orders are weaker than expected. The short-term prices will mainly fluctuate with costs [10]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals - **Iron ore**: The global iron ore shipment volume has increased, and the supply has returned. The daily average pig iron output has slightly rebounded and remained at a high level, driving up the demand for iron ore. The short-term fundamentals of iron ore have limited contradictions, and attention should be paid to whether the iron ore 2601 contract can stand firm at the previous high [2]. - **Coal and coke**: The news of coal mine shutdowns and the increasing expectation of "anti-involution" have jointly pushed up the double-coke futures. The supply of coking coal is likely to be weaker than last year, and the demand for double-coke has rebounded [2]. - **Rebar and hot-rolled coil**: The Fed's interest rate cut has landed as expected. The production of finished steel products has slightly declined, but the supply remains at a relatively high level. The total demand is difficult to show an inverse seasonal performance, and a pattern of high in the front and low in the back will be formed. The short-term rebar 2601 contract will oscillate with a bullish bias, and attention should be paid to the inventory performance of rebar [2]. Financial Products - **Stock index futures/options**: The stock market has generally declined. The inflow and outflow of funds in different sectors vary. It is recommended to control risk appetite and reduce long positions in stock indices [3]. - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond has declined, and the central bank has carried out reverse repurchase operations. The market interest rate fluctuates, and the trend of Treasury bonds is weak. It is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds lightly [3]. - **Gold and silver**: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting, and the Fed's interest rate policy and risk aversion sentiment may be short-term disturbing factors. Gold and silver are expected to maintain high-level oscillations [3]. Light Industry Products - **Logs**: The daily average shipment volume of logs at ports has slightly increased, and the supply pressure is generally not large. The inventory has rebounded to around the key threshold of 3 million cubic meters. The spot market price is running steadily, and it is expected that logs will oscillate within a range [6]. - **Pulp**: The spot market price of pulp has mainly declined. The cost support for pulp prices has increased, but the demand improvement expectation remains to be verified. It is expected that the pulp price will consolidate at the bottom [6]. - **Double-offset paper**: The spot market price of double-offset paper is running steadily. The industry is in a stage of overcapacity, with stable short-term supply and poor demand. The overall situation is bearish, and opportunities to short on rebounds should be sought [6]. Agricultural Products - **Edible oils**: After a previous sharp rise, edible oils may oscillate in a wide range in the short term. Attention should be paid to the weather in the US soybean producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [6]. - **Meal products**: The new crop yield of US soybeans has increased, the export demand is weak, and the domestic supply pressure is significant. It is expected that meal products will continue oscillating with a bearish bias [6]. - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs has continued to rise slightly. The开工 rate of key slaughtering enterprises has increased slightly, and the supply of large pigs has increased, which may put some pressure on prices. It is expected that the price of standard pigs may decline slightly under pressure, and the price difference between fat and standard pigs may widen slightly [7]. Soft Commodities - **Natural rubber**: The supply pressure of natural rubber has decreased, the demand has increased, and the inventory has continued to decline. The price of natural rubber may oscillate in a wide range [10]. - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: The supply and demand of PX and PTA have both increased, but the terminal orders are weaker than expected. The short-term prices will mainly fluctuate with costs. The inventory of MEG is expected to remain at a low level, and the market of polyester bottle chips is expected to continue oscillating and consolidating [10].

Report Overview - Report Title: Pulp Morning Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center - Date: September 19, 2025 [2] SP Main Contract Closing Price - On September 18, 2025, the SP main contract closing price was 5014.00, with a previous day's closing price of 5042.00, a decrease of 0.55534%. The discount to the US dollar price was 615.54 [3]. - The price trends from September 12 - 18, 2025, showed fluctuations, with the highest closing price of 5068.00 on September 16 and the lowest of 4990.00 on September 12 [3]. Basis and Import Profit - The Shandong Yinxing basis on September 18, 2025, was 611, and the Jiangsu - Zhejiang - Shanghai Yinxing basis was 636 [3]. - Import profit calculations for different pulp brands: Canadian Golden Lion had an import profit of - 136.75, Canadian Lion had - 485.04, and Chilean Yinxing had - 229.70, all calculated with 13% VAT and an exchange rate of 7.11 [4]. Pulp and Paper Prices and Margins - From September 12 - 18, 2025, the national average prices of coniferous pulp, broad - leaf pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged, as did the Shandong regional average prices [4]. - For paper products, cultural paper (double - offset and double - copper indices), packaging paper (white card index) remained stable from September 15 - 18, 2025, while the living paper index increased by 4 [4]. - The profit margins of different paper products showed slight changes from September 15 - 18, 2025. Double - offset paper profit margin increased by 0.0506, double - copper paper by 0.0459, white card paper by 0.0368, and living paper by 0.0764 [4]. Pulp Price Spreads - The price spreads between different types of pulp (coniferous - broadleaf, coniferous - natural, coniferous - chemimechanical, coniferous - wastepaper) showed a decreasing trend from September 12 - 18, 2025 [4].

Group 1 - The stock of Qingshan Paper (600103) increased by 6.83% today, with a turnover rate of 32.33% and a trading volume of 3.337 billion yuan, showing a fluctuation of 14.88% [2] - The stock was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's "Dragon and Tiger List" due to its turnover rate, with net purchases from the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect amounting to 12.031 million yuan [2] - Over the past six months, the stock has appeared on the Dragon and Tiger List eight times, with an average price increase of 5.65% the day after being listed and an average increase of 22.73% in the following five days [2] Group 2 - The company reported a total revenue of 1.210 billion yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year decrease of 15.27%, while net profit reached 56.079 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.74% [2] - The main capital inflow for the stock today was 42 million yuan, with a significant single net inflow of 61.792 million yuan, while large single capital saw a net outflow of 19.791 million yuan [2] - In the last five days, the main capital has seen a net outflow of 702 million yuan [2]

Market Overview - The paper sector experienced a decline of 1.09% on September 18, with Sun Paper leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3831.66, down 1.15%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13075.66, down 1.06% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Zhi Xing Paper (002067) saw a significant increase of 9.98%, closing at 7.16, with a trading volume of 294,200 shares and a turnover of 211 million yuan [1] - Qingshan Paper (600103) increased by 6.83%, closing at 4.85, with a trading volume of 7,151,400 shares and a turnover of 3.337 billion yuan [1] - Sun Paper (002078) declined by 3.57%, closing at 14.59, with a trading volume of 282,100 shares and a turnover of 415 million yuan [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The paper sector experienced a net outflow of 172 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 145 million yuan [2] - The capital flow for individual stocks indicates that Songyang Resources (603863) had a net inflow of 28.8254 million yuan from institutional investors, while Zhi Xing Paper (002067) had a net outflow of 15.9420 million yuan [3]

Market Overview - The ChiNext Index fell by 1.64% and the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 1.15%, with brokerage stocks leading the decline, and total trading volume exceeding 30 trillion yuan [1] Company Highlights - Tianpu Co. achieved a 12-day consecutive rise in stock price [1] - Shanghai Construction, Shanzi Gaoke, Shoukai Co., and Xiangjiang Holdings recorded a 5-day consecutive rise [1] Robotics and Automation - Fulongma, a leading provider of human living environment solutions, developed the world's first intelligent cleaning robot based on a skateboard chassis [4] - Junsheng Electronics recently secured project notifications from two major automotive brands, with a total lifecycle order value estimated at 15 billion yuan, set to start production in 2027 [4][7] - Yunnan Tourism's subsidiary signed a strategic cooperation agreement to develop core technologies for tourism scene robots [4] Electric and Electronic Components - Guo En Co. completed the development of PEEK polymer technology and plans to invest in a project with an annual production capacity of 1,000 tons [4] - Industrial Fulian, a leading server OEM, reported a 38.61% year-on-year increase in net profit [5] AI and Data Center Technologies - Haikang Technology's self-developed liquid cooling solution has been integrated into GPU testing equipment, targeting major global server manufacturers [5] - Huawei announced a three-year target for Ascend chips, utilizing self-developed HBM technology [5] Consumer Goods and Retail - Taimusi's export accounts for approximately 30% of its business, focusing on knitted fabrics and garments for well-known brands [6] - Jiangnan Gaofiber is recognized as one of the largest producers of polyester wool and composite short fibers in China [6] Renewable Energy and Hydrogen - Yihua Tong, a leading hydrogen fuel cell company, plans to acquire 100% of the shares of a hydrogen production company, enhancing its supply chain [8] Film and Entertainment - The film "731" is set to be released on September 18, with multiple films scheduled for the National Day holiday [9]

Group 1 - The stock of Qingshan Paper (600103) increased by 2.95% today, with a turnover rate of 31.40% and a trading volume of 3.149 billion yuan, showing a fluctuation of 14.98% [1] - The stock was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's "Dragon and Tiger List" due to its turnover rate, with a net purchase of 53.604 million yuan from the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect [1][2] - The top five trading departments accounted for a total transaction of 440 million yuan, with a net purchase of 65.0617 million yuan [1][2] Group 2 - In the past six months, the stock has appeared on the Dragon and Tiger List seven times, with an average price increase of 5.45% the day after being listed and an average increase of 20.49% in the following five days [2] - The stock experienced a net inflow of 43.9053 million yuan today, with large orders contributing 40.1515 million yuan, despite a net outflow of 899 million yuan over the past five days [2] - The company's semi-annual report released on August 26 showed a revenue of 1.21 billion yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year decrease of 15.27%, while net profit was 56.079 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.74% [2]

Core Insights - The stock price of Jingxing Paper (002067) experienced a cumulative deviation of 20% from September 15 to 17, 2025, while the "Jingxing Convertible Bond" (128130) saw a cumulative deviation of 30% from September 16 to 17, indicating unusual trading volatility [1] Company Summary - The company confirmed that there were no corrections or additional information regarding previous announcements, and there have been no significant changes in recent operations or the business environment [1] - The actual controller and related parties have not engaged in buying or selling the relevant stocks or bonds [1] - As of September 17, the closing premium of "Jingxing Convertible Bond" was 120.40%, with a conversion premium rate of 14.771%, indicating substantial valuation risks [1] Investment Risks - Since September 3, the company's stock price has remained above the conversion price of 130% for 10 consecutive trading days, which poses a redemption risk, potentially leading to investor losses [1] - The company has advised investors to make rational investment decisions and to be aware of the associated risks [1]

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 605500 | 霖林包装 | 9.90 | -1.88% | 8.07万 | 8039.76万 | | 600356 | 恒丰纸业 | 10.16 | -1.84% | 6.56万 | 6738.79万 | | 600793 | 宜宾纸业 | 23.86 | -1.08% | 3.80万 | 9080.54万 | | 002012 | 凯恩股份 | 5.75 | -1.03% | 10.16万 | 5891.32万 | | 600308 | 华泰股份 | 3.72 | -0.53% | 17.66万 | 6582.54万 | | 600567 | 山鹰国际 | 2.05 | -0.49% | 277.16万 | 5.65亿 | | 600966 | 博汇纸V | 5.11 | -0.39% | 10.18万 | 5223.11万 | | 002521 | 齐峰新材 | 9.55 | -0.31% | 4.84万 | 4633.46万 | | 00 ...

机构观点 建信期货： 短期纸浆供应相对充裕，下游纸厂开工有所回升但成本压力下低价采买为主，延续低位震荡调整。 消息面 截止2025年9月11日，中国纸浆主流港口样本库存量：206.2万吨，较上期去库0.4万吨，环比下降 0.2%，库存量在本周期变动不大，呈现窄幅去库的走势。 2025年8月纸浆进口总量265.3万吨，环比-7.8%，同比-5.6%，累计2410.8万吨，累计同比+5.0%。 9月16日，上期所纸浆仓库期货仓单226594吨，环比上个交易日减少186吨；纸浆厂库期货仓单18240 吨，环比上个交易日持平。 国信期货： 业者基于成本面压力持续挺价，浆市跟涨意愿不明显。下游原纸企业利润改善欠佳，持续降本增效，对 于高价接受度有限，逢低采购为主，交投不旺。关注需求企稳情况，操作建议暂时观望。 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Pulp Daily [1] - Date: September 17, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Conditions and Recommendations - Pulp futures contract 01 had a previous settlement price of 5308 yuan/ton and a closing price of 5350 yuan/ton, rising 0.79% overall. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 4980 - 6600 yuan/ton, with the low - end price stable compared to the previous trading day's closing price. The Shandong Yinxing was quoted at 5680 - 5700 yuan/ton [7] - Arauco of Chile announced the new September wood pulp export prices: softwood pulp Yinxing at 700 USD/ton, down 20 USD/ton from last month; natural pulp Venus at 590 USD/ton, unchanged from last month; hardwood pulp Mingxing at 520 USD/ton, up 20 USD/ton from last month [8] - In August, the European wood pulp inventory was 70.78 million tons, up 3.5% month - on - month and 11.3% year - on - year; the consumption was 70.08 million tons, down 13.7% month - on - month and up 2.4% year - on - year. China's pulp imports in August were 265.3 million tons, down 7.9% month - on - month and 5.6% year - on - year. As of September 11, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports was 207.20 million tons, up 0.71% from last week [8] - In the downstream cultural paper market, the restart of previously shut - down production lines led to an increase in supply, but new orders from printing factories were limited, and the market was weak. In the short term, pulp supply was relatively abundant. Although the downstream paper mills'开工 rate increased, they mainly purchased at low prices under cost pressure, and the market continued to fluctuate at a low level [8] Group 3: Industry News - On September 11, the State Administration for Market Regulation issued Announcement No. 21 of 2025, approving the release of 622 recommended national standards and 6 recommended national standard modification orders, including 6 national standards in the papermaking field. Four were revision projects and two were formulation projects. The release and implementation of these standards improved the papermaking standard system and promoted the healthy development of the industry [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report includes multiple data charts such as import softwood pulp spot prices in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp spot - futures price differences, and inventory data [15][17][19][28][29][32]