"当潮水退去，才知道谁在裸泳。"这是巴菲特用半个多世纪的投资传奇诠释的真理。每年五月的第一个周六，美国内布拉斯加州小镇奥马哈都会成为全球资 本市场的"麦加圣地"——巴菲特股东大会在此举行。 这场盛会不仅是价值投资者的"精神图腾"，更是全球经济趋势的风向标。今年，这一殿堂级会议将再次通过腾讯自选股全程中文同传直播，腾讯新闻、全景 网、泡财经提供特别支持，于北京时间2025年5月3日19点起与中国投资者零距离相遇： 直播时间：北京时间2025年5月3日（周六）19点开播，21点股东大会正式开始 直播平台：腾讯自选股APP（主阵地）、微证券、微证券微信小程序、腾讯自选股财经视频号，扫描下方二维码即可预约！ 一、今年巴菲特股东大会为何值得全球瞩目？ 1、历史性时刻：一个时代的交接与传承 2、全球资产配置：从巴菲特视角看全球市场价值 亚洲战略升级：伯克希尔2020年抄底的五大日本商社已获利超百亿美元，2025年是否继续加码或转向印度基建、东南亚消费市场？ 中国布局悬念：巴菲特清仓比亚迪后，伯克希尔会否通过QFLP（合格境外有限合伙人）等渠道低调投资A股？大会表态将影响外资对华配置信心。 天量现金"压力测试"：现金储备逼 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the severe population decline in Northeast China, particularly highlighting the loss of over 11 million people in the last decade, which has significant implications for the region's economic and demographic landscape [5][6][10]. Population Decline Overview - The total population of the three northeastern provinces has decreased by 820,000, marking the highest decline in the country [4]. - From 2014 to 2024, Northeast China has cumulatively lost 11.07 million people, returning to population levels not seen since the 1980s [5][10]. - The population decline is uneven across the provinces, with Liaoning losing 2.23 million, Jilin 4.29 million, and Heilongjiang 8.04 million [13]. Factors Contributing to Population Decline - Heilongjiang has experienced a population decrease of 8 million over 14 years, attributed to the lowest birth rate in the country and a lack of strong urban centers to retain residents [17][18]. - The province's birth rate in 2023 was only 2.92‰, significantly lower than that of Japan and South Korea [18]. - The lack of a strong provincial capital to attract and retain population contrasts with other provinces where major cities have managed to maintain or grow their populations [20][22]. Economic Implications - Northeast China lacks a city with a GDP exceeding 1 trillion yuan and a population over 10 million, which are critical for economic vitality [32]. - Recent investments from state-owned enterprises and favorable geopolitical changes have led to economic recovery, with Dalian and Shenyang both surpassing 900 billion yuan in GDP [34][35]. - However, the challenge remains to attract and retain population, as the region's overall population continues to decline [41]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that for Northeast China to reverse its population decline, it needs to cultivate new industries and retain young people [30]. - The region's only cities with positive population growth are Dalian, Shenyang, and Changchun, but they face significant hurdles in reaching the 10 million population mark [39][44]. - The competition for population is intensifying, with major cities across the country vying for talent, making it difficult for Northeast cities to attract new residents [42].

好投资是信任与认知的双重胜利， 期 待我们始终走在双向奔赴的路上。 姜 诚 一季度市场似乎缺乏清晰的基本面主线，在技术进步的背景下，人工智能和机器人相关领域有不错表现。 因为我们组合中的标的整体价格变化不大，所以整体仓位和结构也变化不大，仅在个别标的价格有显著波 动时进行了"被动"应对。 四月是传统的财报季，叠加贸易战的影响，市场或许会更聚焦于政策对基本面的长中短期影响。但 我们 更专注于为资产进行称重，而非过度关注阶段性波动。我们不会对企业的利润曲线求解一阶导数（利润增 长率）或者二阶导数（增长率的变化率），而是试图对长期分红的现值求解"积分"，所以不太关心增速， 更关心竞争格局和竞争优势的结构性变化。 在结构性变化的维度内，我们的组合有喜有忧，忧的是一些 行业的差竞争格局持续的时间较长，这对长期价值有杀伤；喜的是重点品种的竞争优势在潮水退却后变得 更加明显。简而言之，弱β叠加强α，让我们暂无修订长期结论的必要。对贸易战的前景，很难做出准确 判断，但我们仍有底气，原因有两方面：一是我国完备的产业链和巨大的内需给经济提供了韧性；二是可 运用的政策空间还有很大余量。所以不必急于做判断，后续的操作仍是以多看少动为 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market exhibited significant structural differentiation from April 14 to April 18, with major indices showing mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.19%, while the Shenzhen Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.54% and 0.64%, respectively [1] - The market sentiment was influenced by a shift in investment style, with funds moving from high-volatility technology sectors to traditional industries with stable cash flows. Blue-chip and high-dividend strategies performed well, while growth sectors continued to decline [1] Industry Performance - Concerns over supply chain disruptions led to a slowdown in economic recovery, affecting sectors such as industrials, consumer discretionary, healthcare, and information technology, with the latter experiencing the largest decline, though not exceeding 0.8% [1] - Real estate, telecommunications services, and utilities showed relatively strong performance, with real estate rising by 3.47% [1] Fund Issuance and Performance - A total of 25 funds were issued last week, including 17 equity funds, 7 bond funds, and 1 fund of funds (FOF), with a total issuance of 20.476 billion units [2][18] - The total index for Chinese funds increased by 0.02%, while the ordinary equity fund index decreased by 0.08%, and the mixed equity fund index fell by 0.04% [2] Global Asset Review - Global asset prices showed mixed performance, with U.S. indices under pressure, while European markets strengthened. The Dow Jones and Nasdaq indices fell by over 2%, while major Asian indices rose by over 2% [4] - In commodities, the energy sector led gains, while industrial metals showed mixed results. Gold prices rose nearly 3% due to increased risk aversion, reaching over $3,300 per ounce [4] Domestic Bond Market - The bond market remained stable, with the 10-year government bond futures rising by 0.04% and the 30-year futures increasing by 0.03%. Domestic long-term interest rates remained at historical lows [16]

美国推出新一轮的单边关税政策 1 2025年4月2日，在美国的"解放日"中，美国政府宣布了国家紧急状态并推出了覆盖所有美国贸易伙伴 的"互惠"(reciprocal)关税政策。而在此之前，已经有多项针对其主要贸易伙伴（如中国，加拿大、墨 西哥等）的关税政策出台，部分已经进入执行状态。 在2024年，美国的进出口逆差超过了1.2万亿美元 1 ，在此情况下这一次的关税体现了两个特点，第 一为覆盖范围广——覆盖所有贸易伙伴，即使美国的贸易顺差国家也被加以10%的关税，第二为有针 对性的差异化税率，美国的主要贸易逆差国家和地区被加征更高的关税。 | 2 | | --- | 美国与中国的关税博弈自2018年始， 特朗普开始第二任期后再次升级 本文选自科尔尼 2025 年 4 月 8 日刊发的行业通讯，现全文分享。 中美作为全球最大的两大经济体，2024年中美双边贸易额约6800亿美元，其中美国对中国出口约 1600亿美元，美国从中国进口约5200亿美元，贸易逆差约3600亿美元 2 。 其中中国主要出口机电产品、纺织鞋服、金属制品等，美国主要出口机械电子、农产品、能源等，因 此这些行业中的企业受关税影响较大。 美国政府 ...

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Resource Selection Index has shown a decline in performance over the past month, three months, and year-to-date, indicating a challenging environment for resource-related companies in the A-share market [2]. Group 1: Index Performance - The China Securities Resource Selection Index closed at 2273.45 points, with a decline of 6.22% over the past month, 2.91% over the past three months, and 2.37% year-to-date [1][2]. - The index reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the energy and materials sectors, with a base date of December 31, 2004, set at 1000.0 points [2]. Group 2: Index Composition - The top ten weighted companies in the index include Zijin Mining (8.09%), China Shenhua (3.57%), Wanhua Chemical (2.85%), China Petroleum (2.5%), and China Petrochemical (2.3%) [2]. - The index's holdings are primarily listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange (67.70%) and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (32.30%) [2]. Group 3: Sector Allocation - The sector allocation of the index shows that non-ferrous metals account for 37.26%, chemicals for 26.79%, energy for 21.79%, steel for 7.21%, non-metallic materials for 5.70%, and paper and packaging for 1.25% [2]. Group 4: Index Adjustment Mechanism - The index samples are adjusted semi-annually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [3]. - Weight factors are generally fixed until the next scheduled adjustment, with special circumstances allowing for temporary adjustments [3].

Core Viewpoint - The stability of cash flow, rather than the scale of assets, is crucial for quality of life and investment success, especially in uncertain market conditions [1] Group 1: Cash Flow Index ETFs - A new batch of cash flow index ETFs has emerged, focusing on companies that generate real cash flow, serving as a strategy to navigate market volatility [1] - The China Securities Cash Flow Total Return Index has achieved a remarkable annual return of 40% in a turbulent market [2] Group 2: Investment Strategies - The free cash flow strategy is based on three winning logic points: 1. It focuses on real profitability by looking beyond financial statements, as free cash flow is based on actual cash inflows and outflows [4] 2. It combines high dividend yields with growth potential, providing a dual revenue engine [5] 3. It employs a dynamic rebalancing mechanism to capture undervalued stocks, allowing for timely adjustments to the index [9] Group 3: Performance Metrics - The index demonstrated resilience during bear markets, with a mere 2.76% decline in 2022 when the CSI 300 fell by 21.6% [6] - In bull markets, it outperformed with a 40.94% increase in 2024, achieving an excess return of 27 percentage points [6] - Since its inception in 2013, the index has accumulated a total return of 587.53% [6] Group 4: Index Composition - The index employs a "barbell strategy," including both cash-rich cyclical leaders like coal and petrochemicals, and high ROE growth sectors such as home appliances and automobiles [7] - The top ten constituent stocks, including China Shenhua and Midea Group, account for over 60% of the index, providing stable dividends while retaining growth potential [7] Group 5: Future Outlook - The market is expected to reassess value anchors, with state-owned enterprises facing value re-evaluation as cash flow assets become essential for risk-averse investments [9] - The upcoming issuance of the China Securities Cash Flow ETF may capture more certainty in the era of cash being king [9]

从中证能源指数持仓的市场板块来看，上海证券交易所占比89.66%、深圳证券交易所占比10.34%。 从中证能源指数持仓样本的行业来看，能源占比100.00%。 资料显示，指数样本每半年调整一次，样本调整实施时间分别为每年6月和12月的第二个星期五的下一 交易日。权重因子随样本定期调整而调整，调整时间与指数样本定期调整实施时间相同。在下一个定期 调整日前，权重因子一般固定不变。遇临时调整时，当中证800指数调整样本时，中证800行业指数样本 随之进行相应调整。在样本公司有特殊事件发生，导致其行业归属发生变更时，将对中证800行业指数 样本进行相应调整。当样本退市时，将其从指数样本中剔除。样本公司发生收购、合并、分拆等情形的 处理，参照计算与维护细则处理。 金融界4月16日消息，A股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，中证能源指数 (800能源，000928)上涨0.89%，报 2609.76点，成交额92.68亿元。 数据统计显示，中证能源指数近一个月下跌2.70%，近三个月下跌8.34%，年至今下跌13.01%。 据了解，为反映中证800指数样本中不同行业公司证券的整体表现，为投资者提供分析工具，将中证800 指数样本按中 ...

Core Viewpoint - China's exports in March recorded a year-on-year growth rate of 12.4%, significantly rebounding over 10 percentage points compared to January-February, indicating strong export performance [1][2][15] Export Performance - The increase in exports is primarily driven by a low base effect from the previous year, "export rush," and the early timing of the Spring Festival [1][2][15] - The quantity of exports has increased, while prices have exerted a drag on growth [4][11] - Exports to emerging markets have shown higher growth rates, with significant increases in machinery and mobile phones, while household appliances and labor-intensive goods have benefited from the export rush [1][6][9] Regional Analysis - Exports to Africa surged by 37.5%, Latin America by 23.3%, and countries along the Belt and Road by 15.1%, all exceeding 10 percentage points [6] - Exports to developed economies, such as the U.S. and EU, also increased but at a lower rate compared to emerging markets [6] Product Category Insights - Labor-intensive products, including footwear and textiles, saw significant increases in export growth, with footwear at 10%, clothing at 9.3%, and textiles at 16.5% [9] - In the machinery sector, exports of lighting devices increased by 24.3%, while general machinery and auto parts also saw growth exceeding 10 percentage points [9] Import Trends - China's imports in March recorded a year-on-year decline of 4.3%, but this was an improvement of over 4 percentage points compared to January-February [11] - Imports from major trading partners, except for the EU and the U.S., showed varying degrees of increase, with ASEAN seeing a notable rise of 10% [11][13] Trade Balance - The trade surplus in March was $102.64 billion, a decrease of $67.88 billion compared to January-February [15] - The overall export trend is expected to decline as the impact of tariffs becomes more pronounced, with potential for a bottoming out by mid-year [15]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Energy Dividend Index (H50021) opened lower but closed higher, down 0.71% at 4181.54 points with a trading volume of 3.415 billion yuan [1] - The Shanghai Energy Dividend Index has decreased by 2.87% over the past month, 7.36% over the past three months, and 14.54% year-to-date [2] - The index is composed entirely of the energy sector, with a 100% weight in the Shanghai Stock Exchange [3][4] Group 2 - The index is adjusted annually, with changes implemented on the next trading day after the second Friday of December [4] - A buffer zone is set for dividend conditions, allowing samples with a cash dividend yield greater than 0.5% to be exempt from certain requirements [4] - The adjustment ratio is generally limited to 20%, unless significant changes occur in the industry or if more than 20% of samples are removed due to low dividend yields [4]