投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 研 究 所 晨 会 观 点 精 [Table_Report] 分析师 贾利军 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-80128600-8630 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 【宏观】海外方面，美国总统表示将在未来两到三周内对许多国家征收新的关税， 美国关税风险重燃；而 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Steel Products**: Demand is unlikely to improve, with short - term weak and volatile trends. For rebar, the mid - term outlook is weak; for hot - rolled coils, the short - term trend is volatile [3][4][5]. - **Iron Ore**: The fundamental situation is weakening marginally, and the ore price will face pressure in the later stage. It is recommended to short at high prices and hold inter - period positive spreads [7][8][9]. - **Coke**: There is still an expectation of price cuts, and the supply - demand situation remains weak [10][11][12]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply pressure persists, and the weak trend continues [13][14][15]. - **Ferroalloys**: For ferromanganese, pay attention to the start - up in low - cost areas, with wide - range volatility expected; for ferrosilicon, the price is expected to move within a narrow range [16][17][18]. 3. Summary by Variety Rebar - **Core View**: Oscillate weakly. The profit of blast - furnace rebar is better than that of hot - rolled coils, and the overall profit of steel mills is high, with high - level hot - metal production. Demand will enter the seasonal off - season, and the supply - demand contradiction may intensify. The short - term trend is volatile, and the mid - term outlook is weak. The price range is [3050, 3110] [1]. - **Price Data**: Futures prices: rebar 01 is 3107 (-43), rebar 05 is 3126 (+51), rebar 10 is 3082 (-36); spot prices in different regions have different changes [2]. Hot - Rolled Coils - **Core View**: Oscillate weakly. Supply has decreased slightly, demand has recovered, inventory continues to decline, and exports are still high. The supply - demand is relatively balanced, but the overall atmosphere in the black industry chain is weak, with a short - term volatile trend. The price range is [3190, 3250] [1]. - **Price Data**: Futures prices: hot - rolled coil 01 is 3238 (-34), hot - rolled coil 05 is 3255 (-10), hot - rolled coil 10 is 3226 (-34); spot prices in different regions have different changes [2]. Iron Ore - **Core View**: Short at high prices. The demand for iron ore will remain high supported by steel - enterprise profits, but the terminal demand is weakening, and the contradiction between high hot - metal production and weak terminal demand is accumulating. It is recommended to short at high prices and hold inter - period positive spreads. The price range is [710, 740] [1]. - **Price Data**: Futures prices: iron ore 01 is 692 (-7), iron ore 05 is 794 (-8), iron ore 09 is 728 (-9); spot prices of different iron ore powders have declined [6]. Coke - **Core View**: Weak. Hot - metal production is at a high level but may peak. Steel mills are cautious in coke procurement, and there is an expectation of further price cuts. The supply is loose, and it will maintain a weak operation. The price range is [1415, 1455] [1]. - **Price Data**: Futures prices of different contracts have different changes; spot prices in different regions have declined [10]. Coking Coal - **Core View**: Weak. Domestic mine production is normal, and Mongolian coal customs clearance has increased. The supply pressure persists, and the supply - demand is loosely balanced, with a downward trend. The price range is [835, 865] [1]. - **Price Data**: Futures prices of different contracts have declined; spot prices in different regions have different changes [13]. Ferromanganese - **Core View**: Wide - range volatility. The production reduction range in production areas is expanding, but the reduction in low - cost areas is limited. Pay attention to the start - up in Inner Mongolia. The actual demand may be under pressure, the cost support is insufficient, and the inventory pressure in delivery warehouses is not significantly relieved. The price range is [5750, 6000] [1]. - **Price Data**: Futures prices of different contracts have different changes; spot prices in different regions have different changes [16]. Ferrosilicon - **Core View**: Oscillate weakly. The cost support is weakening, the supply is at a low level, but the inventory is relatively high. The short - term market has a small rebound but lacks upward momentum, with a narrow - range operation. The price range is [5570, 5750] [1]. - **Price Data**: Futures prices of different contracts have increased; spot prices in different regions are stable [16].

铁合金早报 | | | | | | | | | | 2025/5/19 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 项目 | | 现货 | | 仓单 | | 盘面 | | | | | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 出厂价折盘面 | 最新 | | 日变化 | 周变化 | | 硅铁自然块 | 宁夏#72 | 5400 | 0 | 50 | 5660 | 主力合约 | 5704 | 44 | 222 | | | 内蒙#72 | 5400 | 0 | 0 | 5750 | 01合约 | 5658 | 28 | 148 | | 产区汇总价 | 青海#72 | 5450 | 0 | 0 | 5780 | 05合约 | 5596 | 46 | 86 | | | 陕西#72 | 5350 | 0 | 0 | 5650 | 09合约 | 5618 | 38 | 158 | | | 陕西#75 | 5900 | 0 | 0 | | 主力月基差 | -44 | -44 | -172 | | 硅铁合格块 | 江苏#72 | 56 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ulanqab Municipal Human Resources and Social Security Bureau has been actively cultivating labor service brands to stabilize employment and increase income for farmers and herdsmen, effectively promoting job creation and income growth in the region [1][2][3] Group 1: Labor Brand Development - The city has cultivated a total of 23 municipal and autonomous regional labor brands, 13 vocational skill training brands, and 5 "vocational skill training + labor" brands, achieving the goal of "one county, one brand" in 11 banners and districts [1] - In 2024, nine municipal labor brands were developed, including "Zhuozi Smoked Chicken Industry Worker" and "Ulan Beauty Care Worker," which are expected to create an average of 59,000 jobs annually and generate a total labor income of 540 million yuan [2] - In 2025, 14 municipal labor brands will be developed, including "Jining Langerge Dairy Production Worker" and "Fengzhen New Tai Electrician," projected to create an average of 27,000 jobs annually and generate a total labor income of 360 million yuan, with an average annual income of 13,000 yuan per person [2] Group 2: Quality Improvement and Brand Recognition - The "Ulan Beauty Home Service" brand has facilitated stable employment for over 5,000 individuals, conducted over 9,600 skill training sessions, and provided more than 20,000 home service instances [2] - The focus will be on cultivating national-level home service labor brands and autonomous regional "North Border Home Service" brands to enhance brand recognition and further promote employment [2] - The Ulanqab Municipal Human Resources and Social Security Bureau aims to continuously develop strong labor brands that leverage the city's industrial development and resource advantages, establishing a comprehensive policy service system for labor brand construction [3]

Group 1: Report Title and Date - Report title: "Iron Alloy Accelerates Production Cuts, Awaiting Coal Price Stabilization - Guoxin Futures Iron Alloy Weekly Report" [2] - Report date: May 18, 2025 [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - For manganese silicon, last week both the futures and spot prices rose by 100 yuan/ton with the basis unchanged. The price is low and producers' profits are poor. Production decreased further, with the supply - demand gap emerging in the industry chain. It's recommended to go long with a light position, awaiting coal price stabilization [47]. - For ferrosilicon, last week the futures price rose while the spot price remained flat, and the basis slightly narrowed. The supply side saw a sharp production cut, and the supply - demand gap widened with major manufacturers showing a clear intention to maintain prices. It's also recommended to go long with a light position [47]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Macro - news**: The "Joint Statement of the China - US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks" was released, with both sides agreeing to significantly reduce bilateral tariff levels. China's 1 - 4 social financing scale increased by 16.34 trillion yuan, 3.61 trillion yuan more than the same period last year; new RMB loans were 10.06 trillion yuan. The US initial jobless claims were 229,000, in line with market expectations. China's auto production and sales exceeded 10 million in the first 4 months, with new - energy vehicles growing rapidly. The retail sales of white goods showed different trends online and offline in April [5]. - **Manganese silicon**: The futures and spot prices rose last week. The basis had different year - on - year, 30 - day, and weekly changes in different regions. The price of manganese ore also had corresponding changes [8]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Information about its futures price increase, spot price stability, and basis change was provided, along with data on the change of main - producing area electricity prices [12][18]. 2. Manganese Silicon Industry Chain Overview - **Manganese ore**: Included information on manganese ore prices, import volume, and inventory over the years [21][24][25]. - **Manganese silicon**: Covered profit estimation, production volume in different time periods, and the relationship with steel production [27][29][33]. 3. Ferrosilicon Industry Chain Overview - **Ferrosilicon**: Included profit estimation, production volume in different time periods, and the relationship with steel production [36][39][44]. 4. Summary and Future Outlook - **Manganese silicon**: The futures and spot prices rose last week, production decreased, and it's recommended to go long with a light position awaiting coal price stabilization [47]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The futures price rose, the spot price was flat, production cut sharply, and it's recommended to go long with a light position [47].

Core Viewpoint - The manganese silicon market is experiencing a rebound in prices due to tightening supply and improved market sentiment, despite ongoing demand weakness and cost pressures [1][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Manganese silicon supply has tightened significantly, with production cuts initiated by manufacturers since mid-March due to long-term losses. As of May 16, the operating rate of 187 independent manganese silicon enterprises dropped to 33.60%, with daily output at 23,250 tons, marking a decline of 17.93 percentage points and 6,230 tons from previous highs [2]. - The number of operating manganese silicon enterprises decreased from 98 in March to approximately 76, a reduction of 22.45%, and the number of operational furnaces fell from 218 to around 170, a decrease of 22.02%, indicating an ongoing trend of production cuts [2]. - Despite the tightening supply, new production capacity is still being released, and the overall supply surplus in the industry remains unchanged. If profit margins improve, companies may resume production increases [2]. Demand Trends - Demand for manganese silicon is weakening, primarily due to a slowdown in steel production activities. As of May 16, the operating rate and capacity utilization of 247 steel mills fell to 84.15% and 91.76%, respectively, with weekly steel output at 8.6835 million tons, translating to a manganese silicon weekly demand of 125,600 tons, which has declined for two consecutive weeks [3]. - Steel mills are exhibiting cautious purchasing behavior, with bidding prices reported at 5,700 yuan per ton, below market expectations, reflecting reduced demand for manganese silicon [3]. - The weakening demand is attributed to two main factors: pressure on steel mill profitability due to low steel prices and the seasonal downturn in steel demand, compounded by ongoing adjustments in the real estate market and limited growth in infrastructure investment [3]. Cost Pressures - Manganese silicon production cuts are primarily driven by long-term losses, but since mid-March, falling manganese ore prices have reduced production costs, exerting downward pressure on manganese silicon prices [4]. - The reduction in manganese silicon production has led to decreased demand for manganese ore, while expectations for supply increases are rising, particularly with the anticipated recovery of shipments from Australian miner South32 [4]. - Overall, despite recent market sentiment improvements and supply tightening driving a price rebound, ongoing demand weakness and cost pressures suggest that manganese silicon prices lack sustained upward momentum [4].

2025 年 5 月 18 日 二 〇 二 五 年 度 锰硅：矿端报价提振，锰硅震荡偏强 硅铁：主产地供应收紧，硅铁震荡偏强 | 李亚飞 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 | liyafei2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 金园园（联系人） | 期货从业资格号：F03134630 | jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com | 报告导读： 【走势回顾】本周硅铁 2506 合约走势震荡偏强，收于 5,598 元/吨，周环比变化 116 元/吨，成交 199,314 手，持仓 36,431 手，持仓环比变化-45,598 手。本周锰硅 2509 合约价格走势偏强，收于 5,858 元/吨，周环比变化 100 元/吨，成交 9698 手，持仓 35698 手，持仓环比变化-19,483 手。 【供应】硅铁本周产量为 9.35 万吨，产量较上周环比变化-0.94 万吨，环比变化率为-9.1%，周开工 率为 31.22%，较上周变动-1.31 个百分点。锰硅本周产量 16.28 万吨，产量较上周环比变化-0.93 万吨，环比变化率为-5.4%，周开工率为 33.6%，较上 ...

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View Yesterday's steel data showed that the apparent demand recovered but continued to decline after reaching a peak. The daily average pig iron output and the output of five major steel products decreased, while the inventory continued to be depleted. The apparent demand in May decreased slightly compared to April. After the tariff reduction, the export orders improved. The steel market is characterized by strong supply and demand at the industrial end, continuous inventory depletion, and support from export and re - export. With low inventory support, the improvement of macro - sentiment is expected to repair the valuation. Attention should be paid to the transmission of terminal restocking to the spot market. For the October contract, the pressure range for rebar is 3200 - 3250, and for hot - rolled coil is 3300 - 3400 [1]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions and contracts showed various changes. For example, the rebar spot price in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 3240 yuan/ton, while the hot - rolled coil spot price in North China remained unchanged at 3230 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The costs of steel billet, plate billet, and different steel production methods (such as Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar and converter rebar) had different changes. The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions also showed fluctuations. For instance, the cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar increased by 6 yuan/ton to 3323 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coil increased by 15 yuan/ton to 113 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production and Inventory**: The daily average pig iron output remained unchanged at 245.6 tons, the output of five major steel products decreased by 5.8 tons to 868.4 tons, the rebar output increased by 3.0 tons to 226.5 tons, and the hot - rolled coil output decreased by 8.4 tons to 312.0 tons. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 45.4 tons to 1430.7 tons, the rebar inventory decreased by 33.8 tons to 619 tons, and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 17.6 tons to 347.6 tons [1]. - **Trading Volume and Demand**: The daily average trading volume of building materials decreased by 2.0 tons to 10.0 tons, the apparent demand of five major steel products increased by 68.6 tons to 913.8 tons, the apparent demand of rebar increased by 46.4 tons to 260.3 tons, and the apparent demand of hot - rolled coil increased by 20.0 tons to 329.5 tons [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View Yesterday, the iron ore 09 contract fluctuated, and the 5 - 9 spread continued to rise. Fundamentally, the daily average pig iron output reached a peak and then declined this week, and the port clearance volume increased slightly. It is expected that the pig iron output will remain at a high level in the short term. The finished steel data shows resilience, with the apparent demand of hot - rolled coil and rebar rebounding and the overall inventory depletion pattern continuing. The inventory of iron ore decreased slightly under the high - level pig iron output, and the steel mill inventory remained low. The terminal demand of finished steel determines the sustainability of the high - level pig iron output, and the marginal changes lie in exports and infrastructure. Currently, the steel billet export exceeds expectations. In the future, the supply - demand pressure of iron ore will increase as the overseas mine shipments peak in May - June and the arrival peak has not yet come. In addition, the improvement of macro - expectations may bring sentiment repair. It is expected that iron ore will mainly fluctuate in the short term [4]. Summary by Directory - **Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt costs of different iron ore powders (such as Carajás fines, PB fines) decreased slightly, while the 09 contract basis of various iron ore powders increased significantly. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 6.5 yuan/ton to 65.0 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 1.0 yuan/ton to 38.5 yuan/ton [4]. - **Spot Prices and Price Indexes**: The spot prices of different iron ore powders at Rizhao Port decreased slightly, the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap price decreased by 1.4 dollars/ton to 97.9 dollars/ton, and the Platts 62% Fe price increased by 1.6 dollars/ton to 102.8 dollars/ton [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 95.1 tons to 2354.6 tons, the global weekly shipment volume decreased by 21.5 tons to 3029.0 tons, and the monthly national import volume decreased by 22.4 tons to 9397.4 tons. The weekly daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.2 tons to 245.6 tons, the weekly daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports decreased by 16.6 tons to 315.2 tons, the monthly national pig iron output increased by 859.5 tons to 7529.4 tons, and the monthly national crude steel output increased by 1687.2 tons to 9284.1 tons [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: The inventory at 45 ports increased by 102.2 tons to 14340.88 tons, the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 376.1 tons to 8959.0 tons, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills remained unchanged at 22.0 days [4]. Group 3: Coke Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View As of yesterday's close, the coke futures showed a weak and fluctuating trend. China's tariff reduction on the US since the 14th has driven a general rise in commodity prices due to macro - level benefits. On the spot side, the market proposed a price increase, but mainstream steel mills proposed a price cut for coke on the 13th, which is expected to be implemented on the 16th. After the May Day holiday, the ex - factory price of coke is temporarily stable, and the port trade price is weak. On the supply side, due to the increase in downstream pig iron output, coke enterprises have good orders and continuous improvement in production, and the coking profit has also been repaired. On the demand side, the pig iron output in May continued to be above 240 tons per day, and steel mills replenished inventory as needed. There is no obvious inventory accumulation downstream, but attention should be paid to the possibility of a decline in pig iron output in the future. In terms of inventory, the inventory of coking plants, ports, and steel mills is decreasing. Considering the steel mills' price cut for coke, the futures market is following the expected price - cut trend, and the fundamentals are still bearish. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coil and short on coke (equal - value) and pay attention to the signal of the coke price reaching a phased bottom [5]. Summary by Directory - **Coke - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Shanxi Grade 1 wet - quenched coke and Rizhao Port quasi - Grade 1 coke remained unchanged. The coke 09 contract decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1472 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1499 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread weakened to - 27. The weekly coking profit increased by 6 yuan/ton to 7 yuan/ton [5]. - **Upstream Coking Coal Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt and Mongolian coal warehouse receipt) remained unchanged. The coking coal 09 contract decreased by 12 yuan/ton to 883 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract decreased by 12 yuan/ton to 899 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread strengthened to - 16. The weekly profit of sample coal mines decreased by 17 yuan/ton to 382 yuan/ton [5]. - **Supply**: The weekly daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.2 tons to 67.2 tons, and the weekly daily average output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged at 47.3 tons [5]. - **Demand**: The weekly pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.9 tons to 244.8 tons [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: The total coke inventory decreased by 11.3 tons to 983.2 tons, the inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.1 tons to 94.3 tons, the inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 7.2 tons to 663.8 tons, the available days of steel mills decreased by 0.1 days to 12.0 days, and the port inventory decreased by 4.0 tons to 225.1 tons [5]. - **Coke Supply - Demand Gap Changes**: The coke supply - demand gap increased by 0.1 tons to - 4.5 tons [5]. Group 4: Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View As of yesterday's close, the coking coal futures showed a weak and fluctuating trend. China's tariff reduction on the US since the 14th has driven a general rise in commodity prices due to macro - level benefits. On the spot side, the market continued to decline slightly. The futures market, due to pessimistic market expectations, led the spot market in decline and showed a deep - discount structure, with large hedging pressure on the futures and weak willingness of long - position holders to support the price, remaining in a weak situation. The market auction was cold again, and the transaction prices of various coal types adjusted downward slightly. The supply - demand relaxation pattern is difficult to reverse in the short term. On the supply side, domestic coal mines continued to resume production, and the output was at a relatively high level. For imported coal, the Mongolian customs clearance volume increased from a low level, and the import profit of seaborne coal continued to be inverted, with prices stable or slightly decreasing. On the demand side, the downstream blast furnace and coking plant operations increased slightly, and downstream users still mainly replenished inventory as needed. The pig iron output in May continued to be above 240 tons per day. As the peak season of steel (March - April) is coming to an end, attention should be paid to the possibility of the pig iron output reaching a peak and then declining after the holiday. In terms of inventory, the coal mine inventory continued to accumulate at a high level, with pressure to reduce prices for sales. The port inventory decreased faster, and the downstream inventory was at a low level. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coil and short on coking coal (equal - value) and pay attention to the signal of the coking coal price reaching a phased bottom [5]. Summary by Directory - **Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt and Mongolian coal warehouse receipt) remained unchanged. The coking coal 09 contract decreased by 12 yuan/ton to 883 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract decreased by 12 yuan/ton to 899 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread strengthened to - 16. The weekly profit of sample coal mines decreased by 17 yuan/ton to 382 yuan/ton [5]. - **Overseas Coal Prices**: The arrival price of Australian Peak Downs coal increased by 0.6 dollars/ton to 204 dollars/ton, the warehouse - pick - up price of Hong Kong - Macau main - coking coal at Jingtang Port remained unchanged at 1280 yuan/ton, and the warehouse - pick - up price of Hong Kong - Macau thermal coal at Guangzhou Port decreased by 2.0 yuan/ton to 719 yuan/ton [5]. - **Supply**: The weekly raw coal output increased by 2.8 tons to 895.8 tons, and the weekly clean coal output increased by 1.9 tons to 459.2 tons [5]. - **Demand**: The weekly daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.2 tons to 67.2 tons, and the weekly daily average output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged at 47.3 tons [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased by 19.4 tons to 230.3 tons, the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 31.7 tons to 884.9 tons, the available days decreased by 0.4 days to 9.9 days, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 4.0 tons to 791.2 tons, the available days increased by 0.1 days to 12.6 days, and the port inventory increased by 8.3 tons to 306.1 tons [5]. Group 5: Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View - **Ferrosilicon**: Yesterday, the ferrosilicon futures main contract showed a slight movement. Recently, environmental inspections have entered Inner Mongolia, and large - scale factories in Inner Mongolia may shut down furnaces, with an estimated daily output reduction of 800 tons. In addition, large - scale factories in the main production area of Ningxia have a cumulative daily output reduction of about 1400 tons this week. After the previous production reduction, the supply pressure has been relieved, and the factory inventory has continued to decrease, but the overall inventory is still at a medium - high level. On the demand side, the pig iron output remains at a high level, the steel mill profit is repaired, and the apparent demand of steel products shows resilience, and the low - inventory pattern continues. Attention should be paid to the marginal change in exports in the future. In terms of non - ferrous demand, the price of metallic iron remains strong due to raw material factors, but the downstream demand support is limited, and the procurement is cautious. Overseas orders are poor, and inquiries are few. In terms of cost, the price of blue carbon is stable. With low inventory and supply reduction, the supply - demand contradiction is limited. In terms of electricity price, Ningxia will no longer use the electricity spot market settlement in May, and the electricity price may increase. The short - term electricity price fluctuation has come to an end. In the future, the supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon has been alleviated. The price change still depends on the cost. The price has temporarily stabilized, and with the release of macro - level benefits, it is expected that the price will stabilize and rebound, but the rebound is more due to valuation repair and macro - factors, and there is a lack of momentum for a strong upward trend [6]. - **Ferromanganese**: Yesterday, the ferromanganese main contract rose slightly. Fundamentally, ferromanganese production continued to be reduced, and the scope of production reduction in Inner Mongolia and Chongqing factories has expanded recently, and the output has accelerated its decline. Currently, affected by the continuous decline in the futures price, the hedging profit on the futures market is gradually in a loss state, and the warehouse receipts and valid forecasts have begun to decline. On the demand side, the pig iron output remains at a high level, the steel mill profit is repaired, and the apparent demand of steel products shows resilience, and the low - inventory pattern continues. Attention should be paid to the marginal change in exports in the future. In terms of manganese ore, the global manganese ore shipment decreased this week. Affected by the increase in the arrival of South African ore, the port inventory decreased, but considering the future manganese ore shipment plan, the arrival of manganese ore will still remain at a high level. Affected by the overseas mines' reduction of forward - period quotes, the import profit of port traders is inverted, and manganese ore is under the pressure of negative feedback in smelting and potential supply release. In the future, the short - term ferromanganese price will continue to fluctuate. With the warehouse receipts stopping increasing and starting to decrease, the cost support on the futures market is weakened, the supply - demand gap is narrowing, and at the same time, the cost of manganese ore has gradually stabilized due to the traders' profit inversion. Coupled with the positive macro - level factors, it is expected that the price will fluctuate, stabilize, and rebound, but the rebound is more due to valuation repair and macro - factors, and there is a lack of momentum for a strong upward trend [6]. Summary by Directory - **Ferrosilicon Spot Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract decreased by 18.0 yuan/ton to 5660.0 yuan/ton. The spot prices of ferrosilicon in different regions (such as Inner Mongolia, Qinghai) showed various changes. The difference between the Inner Mongolia spot price and the main contract price increased by 18.0 yuan/ton to - 260.0 yuan/ton [6]. - **Ferromanganese Spot Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the ferromanganese main contract increased by 12.0 yuan/ton to 5876.0 yuan/ton. The spot prices of ferromanganese in different regions (such as Inner Mongolia, Guangxi) remained unchanged. The difference between the Guangxi spot price and the main contract price decreased by 12

2025 年 5 月 16 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 锰硅：原料价格继续探涨，锰硅宽幅震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 【基本面跟踪】 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 | 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 较前一交易日 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | | | 硅铁2507 | 5660 | -18 | 101,457 | 227,810 | | 期 货 | 硅铁2509 | 5580 | -22 | 44,263 | 155,279 | | | 锰硅2506 | 5812 | 10 | 4,593 | 23,168 | | | 锰硅2509 | 5876 | 12 | 191,490 | 380,749 | | | 项 目 | | 价 格 | 较前一交易日 | 单 位 | | | 锰硅2509 | 5876 | ...

Overall Investment Rating The provided reports do not mention any industry investment ratings. Core Views Steel Industry - Steel prices have been falling this year, priced with the expectation of weak demand after the imposition of tariffs. However, the industry has strong supply and demand, with continuous inventory reduction. Exports and re - exports support steel demand this year. With low inventory support, improved macro - sentiment is expected to repair valuations. Attention should be paid to the impact of terminal restocking on spot prices. For the October contract, pay attention to the pressure in the range of 3200 - 3250 for rebar and 3300 - 3400 for hot - rolled coils [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The 09 contract of iron ore oscillated upwards. Affected by macro - sentiment, the black series generally rose. In the short term, iron ore is expected to have a valuation repair, but in the medium - to - long term, a bearish view should be maintained. The high - level sustainability of hot - metal production depends on the terminal demand for finished products, and the marginal changes lie in exports and infrastructure [4]. Coke Industry - The coke futures oscillated and rebounded. The macro - positive factors drove a general rise in commodities. On the supply side, coke enterprises' production increased due to good orders, and coking profits improved. On the demand side, hot - metal production remained high after the holiday, and steel mills replenished inventory as needed. It is necessary to pay attention to whether hot - metal production will decline in the future. The inventory of coking plants and steel mills decreased, and the port inventory decreased slightly. It is recommended to continue to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coke (equal value) [5]. Coking Coal Industry - The coking coal futures oscillated and rose. The macro - positive factors drove a general rise in commodities. The spot market continued to decline slightly. The futures market was in a deep - discount structure, with large hedging pressure. The supply - demand pattern of coking coal remained loose in the short term. It is recommended to continue to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coking coal (equal value) [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - The ferrosilicon futures oscillated strongly. Recently, manufacturers have carried out maintenance and production cuts, and the production decline has accelerated. The supply - demand contradiction has been alleviated, and it is expected that the price will oscillate, stabilize, and rebound. The ferromanganese futures also rose slightly. The supply pressure has been relieved after previous production cuts, and it is expected that the price will also oscillate and stabilize [6]. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally increased. For example, rebar 10 - contract rose 48 yuan/ton from 3079 to 3127, and hot - rolled coil 10 - contract rose 52 yuan/ton from 3215 to 3267 [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet price increased by 30 yuan/ton to 2980 yuan/ton. Some steel product profits changed, such as the East China rebar profit decreased by 21 yuan/ton to 5 yuan/ton [1]. Production - The daily average hot - metal output increased slightly by 0.2 to 245.6 (0.1% increase). The output of five major steel products decreased by 9.5 to 874.2 (- 1.1%), and rebar output decreased by 9.8 to 223.5 (- 4.2%) [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 29.0 to 1476.1 (2.0% increase), rebar inventory increased by 9.6 to 653.6 (1.5% increase), and hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 10.9 to 365.1 (3.1% increase) [1]. Trading and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 2.2 to 12.0 (22.4% increase). The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 125.7 to 845.2 (- 12.9%), and the apparent demand for rebar decreased by 77.8 to 213.9 (- 26.7%) [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders increased, and the 09 - contract basis of various iron ore powders also increased significantly. For example, the 09 - contract basis of PB powder increased from 32.7 to 87.9 [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 63.1 to 2449.7 (- 2.5%), and the global shipping volume decreased by 137.7 to 3050.5 (- 4.3%) [4]. Demand - The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.2 to 245.6 (0.1% increase). The national monthly pig iron output increased by 859.5 to 7529.4 (12.9%), and the national monthly crude steel output increased by 1687.2 to 9284.1 (22.2%) [4]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory increased by 102.2 to 14340.88 (0.7%), and the inventory of 64 steel mills decreased by 376.1 to 8959.0 (- 4.0%) [4]. Coke Industry Coke - related Prices and Spreads - The 09 - contract of coke rose by 35 yuan/ton to 1482 (2.4% increase), and the 01 - contract rose by 33 yuan/ton to 1508 (2.2% increase). The coking profit increased by 7 to 1 (700.0% increase) [5]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.1 to 66.9 (- 0.2%), and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 to 47.3 (- 0.24%) [5]. Demand - The hot - metal output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.2 to 245.6 (0.1% increase) [5]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory decreased by 17.8 to 994.6 (- 1.8%), the inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 4.5 to 94.4 (- 4.6%), and the inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 4.2 to 671.0 (- 0.64%) [5]. Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - related Prices and Spreads - The 09 - contract of coking coal rose by 24 to 894.5 (2.76% increase), and the 01 - contract rose by 29.5 to 911 (3.35% increase). The profit of sample coal mines decreased by 4 to 399 (- 1.0%) [5]. Supply - The output of Fenwei sample coal mines increased, with the raw coal output increasing by 2.8 to 893.1 (0.34%) and the clean coal output increasing by 2.0 to 457.3 (0.4%) [5]. Demand - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.1 to 66.9 (- 0.2%), and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 to 47.3 (- 0.2%) [5]. Inventory Changes - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased by 9.2 to 210.9 (4.6%), the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 42.7 to 916.6 (- 4.4%), and the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 2.4 to 787.2 (0.34%) [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Spot Prices and Spreads - The ferrosilicon 72%FeSi main - contract closing price rose by 66 to 5678 (1.2%), and the ferromanganese FeMn65Si17 main - contract closing price rose by 54 to 5864 (0.9%) [6]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of some regions changed slightly. For example, the production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia increased by 22.3 to 5787.9 (0.4%). Some production profits decreased, such as the production profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia decreased by 3 to - 124 (- 3.0%) [6]. Supply - The ferrosilicon production enterprises' start - up rate increased by 1.8 to 32.5 (5.8%), and the ferromanganese weekly output decreased by 1.1 to 17.2 (- 5.9%) [6]. Demand - The ferrosilicon demand (calculated by Steel Union) decreased by 0.1 to 2.0 (- 1.1%), and the ferromanganese demand (calculated by Steel Union) decreased by 0.2 to 12.6 (- 1.8%) [6]. Inventory Changes - The ferrosilicon inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 1.0 to 7.4 (- 11.8%), and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises of ferromanganese increased by 2.5 to 20.7 (13.9%) [6].