Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the A-share non-ferrous metal sector is primarily driven by macroeconomic sentiment disturbances, while the fundamental logic of "tight supply and steady demand" remains unchanged, indicating potential mispricing in certain sub-sectors [5][9]. Group 1: Market Volatility Factors - The sharp fluctuations in the non-ferrous sector are attributed to three external factors: adjustments in Federal Reserve policy expectations, the "negative gamma effect" amplifying volatility, and seasonal characteristics before the Spring Festival suppressing risk appetite [11][12]. - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chairman triggered a reversal in policy expectations, leading to a decline in interest rate cut forecasts and impacting precious metals prices significantly [13][14][15]. - The "negative gamma effect" exacerbated the situation, where speculative funds, heavily leveraged in the futures and options markets, were forced to liquidate positions as prices fell below key support levels, creating a vicious cycle of selling [17][18]. Group 2: Seasonal and Sentiment Pressures - Seasonal factors related to the Spring Festival, characterized by a demand lull and conservative funding behavior, further intensified the downward pressure on prices, as many downstream industries typically halt operations before the holiday [19][20][21]. - The collective withdrawal of funds from the market, driven by risk aversion, left the non-ferrous sector without sufficient support, compounding the effects of policy and leverage adjustments [22]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Despite short-term emotional disturbances, the core supply-demand dynamics in the non-ferrous metal industry remain intact, with several sub-sectors showing signs of mispricing and potential for recovery [23]. - The long-term investment logic for precious metals remains solid, supported by ongoing central bank gold purchases and unresolved U.S. debt issues, with China's central bank increasing gold reserves for 14 consecutive months, reaching 74.15 million ounces by December 2025 [24]. - In industrial metals, the supply-demand balance for copper and zinc remains tight, with production in major countries like Chile and Peru falling short of expectations [25]. - Energy metals and minor metals continue to face supply constraints, with lithium prices affected by sentiment and uncertainties in production processes, while rare earth elements like praseodymium and neodymium are experiencing price increases due to tightening global supply [26][27][28]. Conclusion - The recent macroeconomic sentiment-induced turbulence has not altered the fundamental supply-demand balance in the non-ferrous metal industry, instead providing a rational entry point for medium to long-term investments [31]. - As global energy transitions and de-globalization trends continue, the supply-demand equilibrium in the non-ferrous metal sector is likely to persist, presenting structural investment opportunities [32].

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the A-share non-ferrous metal sector is primarily driven by macroeconomic sentiment disturbances, while the fundamental supply-demand balance remains intact, indicating potential mispricing in certain sub-sectors [4][6][17]. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector index has experienced a decline of 15% over the past seven trading days following a peak [2]. External Factors Influencing Market - The sharp fluctuations in the non-ferrous sector are attributed to three external factors: a shift in Federal Reserve policy expectations, the negative gamma effect amplifying volatility, and seasonal characteristics before the Spring Festival suppressing risk appetite [6][10]. Triggering Events - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chairman has led to a restructuring of policy expectations, causing a significant impact on precious metals, which are highly sensitive to interest rate changes [7][8]. Market Dynamics - The adjustment in policy expectations has prompted speculative funds to liquidate positions in precious metals, leading to a broader decline across the non-ferrous sector due to a loss of risk appetite [8][11]. Amplifying Mechanisms - The negative gamma effect, combined with high leverage, has triggered a cycle of selling as prices fall below critical support levels, resulting in a cascading effect of forced liquidations [9][10]. Seasonal Influences - Seasonal factors related to the Spring Festival have added pressure to the market, with a typical slowdown in demand and a conservative approach from investors leading to further declines in the non-ferrous sector [10][11]. Supply-Demand Dynamics - Despite short-term disturbances, the core supply-demand dynamics in the non-ferrous metal industry remain unchanged, with several sub-sectors showing signs of being oversold [12][13]. Long-term Investment Opportunities - The long-term investment rationale for precious metals remains strong, supported by ongoing central bank purchases and a favorable macroeconomic backdrop for non-ferrous metals like copper and zinc, which continue to exhibit tight supply-demand conditions [13][14]. Specific Metal Insights - The supply constraints for tungsten, antimony, and uranium are expected to provide upward price elasticity, with production controls and increasing demand from nuclear energy contributing to a favorable outlook [14][15]. Conclusion - The recent macroeconomic sentiment-driven volatility presents a rational entry point for long-term investments in the non-ferrous metal sector, as the fundamental supply-demand balance is likely to persist amid ongoing global energy transitions and geopolitical shifts [17][18].

证券研究报告 A股策略周报: 节前博弈与长期布局如何权衡？ 证券分析师 陈 骁 投资咨询资格编号：S1060516070001 郝思婧 投资咨询资格编号：S1060521070001 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 2026年2月8日 1 ※ 核心观点|节前博弈与长期布局如何权衡？ 1 近期动态|政策跟踪：国常会研究促进有效投资措施，虚拟货币监管政策收紧 资料来源：商务部，市场监管总局，中国政府网，央行，国家药监局，证监会，工信部，平安证券研究所 3 近一周重要政策梳理 日期 部门/会议 会议/文件/行动 主要内容 2026/2/2 商务部等九单位《2026"乐购新春"春节特别活动方 案》 涵盖"好吃""好住""好行""好游""好购""好玩"六方面内容。活动时间为2月15至23日春节9天假期， 旨在打造全域联动、全民乐享的春节消费盛宴。 2026/2/2 市场监管总局等 十部门 《低空经济标准体系建设指南（2025 年版）》 重点围绕低空航空器、低空基础设施、低空空中交通管理、安全监管和应用场景五大核心领域，建立"四维融 合"标准供给体系，要求到2027年体系基本建立。 2026/2/3 国务院 《中共中央 国务院 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent significant drop in lithium carbonate prices, which fell over 10% in a single day, driven by weak market sentiment, regulatory expectations, and a weak fundamental backdrop [2][4]. - Market sentiment has turned negative across the commodity sector, particularly affecting non-ferrous and precious metals, with speculative funds opting to cash out, exacerbating price declines [3][4]. - Regulatory expectations have intensified, with signals from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and futures exchanges indicating stricter measures to curb irrational competition and excessive speculation, leading to a significant reduction in futures positions [3][4]. Group 2 - In the short term, lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain under pressure due to seasonal demand weakness, fragile market sentiment, and stringent regulatory oversight, potentially leading to further testing of lower price points [5][6]. - However, medium to long-term support for prices remains intact, with supply constraints expected due to seasonal maintenance in lithium salt plants and anticipated demand recovery post-holiday, particularly in the battery sector [6][7]. - The market may require stabilization in macro sentiment and a strong recovery in demand post-holiday to regain strength, with key indicators being the production recovery of downstream battery manufacturers and potential export surges [8][9]. Group 3 - The article discusses the contrasting dynamics between the futures and spot markets, noting that while futures have seen speculative excitement, the spot market remains subdued due to high inventory levels and weak demand from downstream sectors [12][13]. - The analysis indicates that the current market conditions are influenced by deeper factors, including cost pressures and industry competition, which are complicating price transmission across the supply chain [14]. - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the distinct behaviors of precious and industrial metals, with industrial metals often acting as economic barometers while precious metals respond to broader economic uncertainties [15][17]. Group 4 - The article outlines the recent volatility in the silver market, attributing the dramatic price movements to high leverage and speculative trading, which can lead to rapid market corrections [66][67]. - It highlights the historical context of silver's price fluctuations, drawing parallels with past market events that resulted in significant downturns due to similar speculative behaviors and market conditions [71][72]. - The article concludes with a cautionary note on the risks associated with leveraged trading, particularly in volatile markets, emphasizing the need for careful risk management [75][76].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced significant fluctuations this week, primarily influenced by international gold and silver prices, leading to a shift in market hotspots from technology stocks to consumer stocks [1][3][4] Market Performance - On Monday, the Shanghai Composite Index opened at 4079.71 points, dropping to a low of 4015.75 points, marking a decline of 102.2 points or 2.48%, which is a rare occurrence of a hundred-point drop in over a year [1] - The index reached its lowest point of the week at 4002.78 on Tuesday but rebounded to a high of 4104.62 on Wednesday, ultimately closing at 4065.58 points on Friday, resulting in a weekly decline of 52 points or 1.27% [2] - The Shenzhen Composite Index also showed similar trends, with a weekly decline of 2.11%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 3.28% [2] Sector Performance - The technology sector, which had been a market favorite, showed signs of retreat, with significant declines in indices related to integrated circuits and artificial intelligence, both dropping over 9% [3] - Conversely, the consumer sector saw a resurgence, with the Consumer Index rising by 2.46% after hitting a one-year low, and other consumer-related indices, such as food and beverage, increasing by 3% [4] - The tourism index also performed well, with a rise of over 3%, indicating a potential shift in investor interest from technology to consumer stocks [4]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：华金证券 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：华金证券 春节前A 股短期走势对节后行情可能有一定影响。2010 年以来的16 年中，有9次春节前5 个交易日内上 证综指走强（弱）而节后1 个交易日上证综指下跌（上涨）；有12 次节前5 个交易日内上证综指涨跌与 节后5 个交易日内涨跌同向。 春季行情未完，春节期间风险可能有限，可持股过节。（1）今年春节期间经济和盈利预期可能改善。 一是春节出行、消费数据可能偏好。二是今年春节地产销售可能有所回暖：首先，低基数效应下今年春 节期间地产销售同比增速可能有所回升；其次，各地刺激地产销售的政策预期较强，春节假期期间地产 销售可能延续回暖趋势。（2）春节期间流动性可能维持宽松。一是春节期间宏观流动性可能维持宽 松：首先，海外方面，2 月11 日美国1 月CPI 数据将公布，2 月17 日美国零售数据将披露，预计美元指 数可能继续维持低位震荡，海外对国内流动性宽松的掣肘有限；其次，国内方面，春节前流动性季节性 紧张下央行可能加大净投放力度。二是春节前 ...

证券研究报告 | 策略专题研究 | 中国策略 策略专题研究 报告日期：2026 年 02 月 05 日 涨价品种出现分化，券商景气度高增 ——行业景气度跟踪报告（2026 年 2 月） 核心观点 上游周期品中，前期涨价品种出现一定程度的分化。从周环比数据看，有色金属中仅 黄金价格出现上涨，白银和其他工业金属出现不同程度的下行，石油石化、基础化工 等细分品种价格亦出现一定回落。双焦价格回暖。TMT 中，半导体销售周期上行行业 景气度不减。下游消费品中，飞天茅台当年散装价格环比上行，支撑白酒走强。金融 地产方面，两市成交额放大，两融余额处于高位，彰显券商景气高增。 ❑ 上游周期 1）有色金属：价格出现分化，comex 黄金价格周环比上行；2）煤炭：煤炭开采 和洗选 PPI 同比增速修复，双焦价格回暖；3）石油石化：石油和天然气开采业 PPI 下行，原油价格承压 ❑ 中游周期 1）钢铁：铁矿石和螺纹钢价格周环比上行；2）基础化工：主要品种价格下行； 3）建筑材料：行业景气度仍处于相对低位；4）交通运输：海运业务走低，快递 业务增速放缓。 ❑ 中游制造 1）轻工制造：建材家居景气度下行，白卡纸价格处于低位。2）汽车： ...

从时间节点看，2月往往处于春节前后，是全年中市场情绪相对活跃的阶段之一。历史经验显示，在政 策预期、资金回流以及风险偏好回升等多重因素作用下，春季行情往往具备一定延续性。众赢财富通研 究发现，当前市场在经历前期震荡整理后，整体估值压力有所缓解，而成交活跃度与主题投资热度正在 回升，这为结构性机会的展开提供了基础。 在行业分布方面，电子板块依旧是券商配置的"压舱石"。随着算力需求持续扩张、国产替代进程加快以 及产业链景气度改善，相关细分领域的中长期逻辑并未发生变化。海光信息等公司因其在核心技术和产 业链地位上的优势，获得多家券商同时推荐，反映出机构对科技自主可控与高端制造方向的持续看好。 众赢财富通观察发现，电子板块内部的分化正在加剧，资金更倾向于流向业绩确定性相对较高、具备产 业趋势支撑的细分龙头。 机械设备板块在2月金股中同样占据重要位置。该板块一方面受益于制造业升级与设备更新需求，另一 方面也与算力基础设施、能源开发等投资方向密切相关。部分券商指出，机械设备企业订单可见度较 高、盈利修复节奏相对明确，在市场风格切换阶段具备较好的配置价值。众赢财富通认为，在当前宏观 环境下，兼具成长属性与一定周期弹性的装备 ...

Fund Size Statistics - The top three equity ETF types by fund size change are: Scale Index ETF (¥15.406 billion), Cross-border Industry Index ETF (¥6.624 billion), and Strategy Index ETF (¥5.384 billion) [9] - The bottom three equity ETF types by fund size change are: Theme Index ETF (-¥26.004 billion), Cross-border Scale Index ETF (-¥1.807 billion), and Cross-border Theme Index ETF (¥0.203 billion) [9] - The top three equity ETF products by fund size change are: CSI 500 ETF (¥2.832 billion), Chemical ETF (¥2.386 billion), and HuShen 300 ETF (¥2.229 billion) [9] - The bottom three equity ETF products by fund size change are: Communication ETF (-¥30.885 billion), Non-ferrous Metals ETF (-¥3.932 billion), and Gold Stock ETF (-¥2.963 billion) [13] Market Outlook - The macro timing model for February 2026 has a score of 0, indicating a historical 78.57% probability of the full A index rising in the following month, with an average increase of 3.37% [23] - A-shares are expected to experience a short-term volatile market, influenced by liquidity from overseas markets and the recent AI bubble discussions affecting tech growth stocks [23] - The recommendation is to adopt a balanced ETF allocation strategy due to the anticipated short-term fluctuations in the market [60]

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 金融产品周报 20260207 海外市场流动性有企稳迹象，情绪或会好转 2026 年 02 月 07 日 [Table_Summary] 基金规模统计：（2026.2.2-2026.2.6） 市场行情展望：（2026.2.9-2026.2.13） 基金配置建议： 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 唐遥衎 执业证书：S0600524120016 tangyk@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《商品流动性冲击之后，哪些品种被 "错杀"？》 2026-02-04 《黄金 ETF，2026 年 1 月复盘与 2 月 展望》 2026-02-03 东吴证券研究所 1 / 20 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] ◼ 权益类 ETF 基金规模变化统计：规模变化排名前三名的权益类 ETF 类 型分别为：规模指数 ETF（154.06 亿元），跨境行业指数 ETF（66.24 亿 元），策略指数 ETF（53.84 亿元）；规模变化排名后三名的权益类 ETF 类型分别为：主题指数 ETF（-260 ...