Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report by Industrial Securities indicates that the overall A-share market is expected to rise by 27.65% in 2025, with profit contribution at 5.29%, valuation contribution at 20.44%, and dividend contribution at 1.91% [1][6][9] - In the primary industry analysis, profit is identified as the "watershed" determining the performance of various sectors in 2025, with leading sectors such as non-ferrous metals, AI hardware (communication, electronics), new energy, and machinery showing significant profit contributions [1][6][9] - Conversely, sectors like consumer goods, real estate, and dividends are expected to lag, primarily due to profit drag [1][6][9] Group 2 - In the secondary industry analysis, sectors with higher growth rates generally have positive profit contributions, while industries such as military (aerospace equipment, ground weapons, military electronics), steel raw materials, and decoration show negative profit contributions, mainly driven by valuation [9][12][14] - The report highlights that in the Hong Kong stock market, most leading sectors also exhibit positive profit contributions, particularly in non-ferrous metals, agriculture, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, and machinery, while lagging sectors like social services and construction are primarily affected by profit drag [12][14] - The secondary industries in the Hong Kong stock market show a similar trend, with leading sectors having positive profit contributions, while industries like motorcycles, traditional Chinese medicine, and glass fiber are negatively impacted by profit drag [14]

乘联分会数据显示，12月1-31日，全国乘用车市场零售229.6万辆，同比去年同期下降13%，较上月增长3%，今年以来累计零售2,377.9万辆，同比增长4%。 12月，全国乘用车厂商批发275.9万辆，同比去年同期下降10%，较上月下降8%，今年以来累计批发2,952.4万辆，同比去年同期增长9%。 新能源车方面，12月全国乘用车新能源车市场零售138.7万辆，同比去年同期增长7%，较上月增长5%，今年以来累计零售1,285.9万辆，同比增长18%；12月 1-31日，全国乘用车厂商新能源批发155.4万辆，同比去年同期增长3%，较上月下降9%，今年以来累计批发1,531万辆，同比增长25%。 渗透率上，12月1-31日，全国乘用车市场新能源零售渗透率60.4%，12月1-31日，全国乘用车厂商新能源批发渗透率56.3%。 1.2025年12月全国乘用车市场零售销量走势 | | 1-7日 | 8-14日 | 15-21日 | 22-28日 | 29-31日 | 1-28 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 23年 | 47,485 | 58,505 ...

Core Viewpoint - On January 6, 2023, brokerage firms provided target prices for listed companies, with notable increases for Tianqi Materials, BYD, and China Jushi, reflecting significant growth potential in the battery, passenger vehicle, and glass fiber industries respectively [1][2]. Target Price Increases - Tianqi Materials (002709) received a target price of 80.50 yuan, indicating a target price increase of 69.69% [2]. - BYD (002594) has a target price of 140.00 yuan, reflecting a 40.01% increase [2]. - China Jushi (600176) has a target price of 23.57 yuan, showing a 34.61% increase [2]. Brokerage Recommendations - A total of 26 listed companies received brokerage recommendations on January 6, with Hengyi Petrochemical, China Jushi, and BYD each receiving two recommendations [3]. - Hengyi Petrochemical (000703) had a closing price of 10.75 yuan with 2 brokerage firms recommending it [3]. - China Jushi (600176) closed at 17.51 yuan and was recommended by 2 brokerage firms [3]. - BYD (002594) closed at 99.99 yuan and also received 2 recommendations [3]. Rating Adjustments - On January 6, only one company had its rating upgraded, with Qunyi Securities (Hong Kong) raising China Duty Free's rating from "Hold" to "Buy" [4]. - China Duty Free (601888) is now rated as "Buy" in the tourism retail sector [4]. First-Time Coverage - Five companies received initial coverage on January 6, with New City Holdings rated "Buy" by Caitong Securities [5]. - Huaming Equipment (002270) was rated "Buy" by Huatai Securities [5]. - Yidong Electronics (301123) received a "Buy" rating from Zhongyou Securities [5]. - Huatu Mountain Ding (300492) was rated "Increase" by Guotai Junan Securities [5]. - Hehe Information (688615) received a "Buy" rating from Dongbei Securities [5].

Group 1: Target Price Increases - The companies with the highest target price increases as of January 6 are Tianqi Materials (002709) with a target price increase of 69.69%, BYD (002594) with 40.01%, and China Jushi (600176) with 34.61% [1][2] - Tianqi Materials is rated "Buy" by Huatai Securities with a target price of 80.50 yuan [2] - BYD has two different ratings, one from Dongwu Securities with a target price of 140.00 yuan and another from Huachuang Securities with a target price of 113.80 yuan [2] Group 2: Broker Recommendations - A total of 26 listed companies received broker recommendations on January 6, with Hengyi Petrochemical (000703), China Jushi, and BYD each receiving two recommendations [1][3] - Hengyi Petrochemical has a closing price of 10.75 yuan and is in the refining and trading industry [3] - China Jushi has a closing price of 17.51 yuan and operates in the glass fiber industry [3] Group 3: Rating Adjustments - On January 6, there was one rating upgrade, with Qunyi Securities (Hong Kong) raising China Duty Free (601888) from "Range Operation" to "Buy" [4] - China Duty Free operates in the tourism retail industry [4] Group 4: First Coverage - Five companies received first coverage on January 6, including Xincheng Holdings (601155) rated "Buy" by Caitong Securities, Huaming Equipment (002270) rated "Buy" by Huatai Securities, and Yidong Electronics (301123) rated "Buy" by Zhongyou Securities [5] - Other companies receiving first coverage include Huatu Mountain Ding (300492) rated "Increase" by Guotai Haitong Securities and Hehe Information rated "Buy" by Dongbei Securities [5]

Core Insights - The article discusses the structural changes in the regional automotive market in China, driven by economic development and government policies aimed at boosting domestic consumption and diversifying exports. It predicts a unique growth trend in the passenger car market for 2025, characterized by strong retail performance from January to September, followed by adjustments in October and November [1]. Group 1: Market Trends - The automotive market is experiencing significant differentiation, with regions that have resumed subsidies showing substantial growth compared to those that have paused them [1]. - The subsidy policies are favoring mid to low-end vehicles, particularly economic models, reflecting a fair distribution of benefits across the market [1]. - The performance of A00 and A0 class electric vehicles is notably strong in regions like North China and Northeast China, indicating a positive impact of the "two new" subsidy policies [1]. Group 2: Regional Market Analysis - The overall growth pattern of the automotive market is shifting towards a "strong North, weak South" dynamic, with Northern regions, especially Northeast and Central Yangtze areas, showing relatively strong performance [2][3]. - In November, the market share of Northern regions decreased by 3.7 percentage points compared to the previous year, while it increased by 5.4 percentage points compared to 2022 [3]. - The Northeast and Northwest regions are identified as the fastest-growing areas in the Chinese automotive market, while Southern regions are underperforming [3]. Group 3: Policy Impact - The article highlights the significant role of government policies in shaping regional market structures, particularly through subsidy adjustments that influence consumer behavior and vehicle sales [4]. - The changes in subsidy policies have led to complex market structure variations across different regions, with Northern markets showing stronger annual performance despite some monthly fluctuations [3]. Group 4: Vehicle Type Market Structure - The demand for SUVs is particularly strong in the Central and Western regions, driven by geographical factors, while Eastern regions show weaker performance in this category [7]. - The growth of new energy vehicles, especially pure electric and plug-in hybrids, is notable, with traditional fuel vehicles still holding a significant market share in Northern and Central regions [8]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is over 50% in Eastern regions, while Northern regions are experiencing rapid growth in pure electric vehicle adoption [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the structural changes in the Chinese automotive market driven by economic development, policy incentives, and regional performance variations, highlighting a significant shift towards the northern regions and the impact of subsidy policies on vehicle sales [2][4]. Regional Market Trends Analysis - The automotive market is experiencing a pronounced divergence, with northern regions, particularly Northeast and Northwest, showing strong growth, while southern regions lag behind [4][5]. - In November 2025, the northern market's share decreased by 3.7 percentage points compared to the previous year, but it increased by 5.4 percentage points compared to 2022 [3]. - The overall market growth is characterized by a "strong north, weak south" pattern, with northern regions outperforming southern ones in recent years [3][4]. Policy Impact on Regional Structure - The "Two New" subsidy policies have significantly encouraged the sales of low-end and economic vehicles, particularly benefiting A00 and A0 class electric vehicles in northern regions [2][5]. - The market structure is complex due to varying subsidy policies across regions, with some areas experiencing strong monthly performance despite weaker annual trends [4][5]. - The central region's market share increased by 1.2 percentage points year-on-year in 2025, indicating a recovery in the Yangtze River area [5] . Vehicle Class Market Structure Changes - The SUV segment is experiencing robust growth, particularly in the central and western regions, driven by geographical demand and the popularity of new energy SUVs [7][8]. - The demand for traditional fuel vehicles remains significant in northern and central regions, while eastern regions are seeing a higher penetration of new energy vehicles [8][9]. New Energy Power Structure Analysis - In November 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is notably high in regions like Hainan and Guangxi, exceeding 60%, while other areas are approaching 50% [8][9]. - The growth of pure electric vehicles is particularly strong in northern regions, reflecting a shift in consumer preferences and policy support for new energy vehicles [8][9].

从资金流向上来看，当日乘用车板块主力资金净流入10.73亿元，游资资金净流出5.16亿元，散户资金净 流出5.57亿元。乘用车板块个股资金流向见下表： 证券之星消息，1月6日乘用车板块较上一交易日上涨2.13%，广汽集团领涨。当日上证指数报收于 4083.67，上涨1.5%。深证成指报收于14022.55，上涨1.4%。乘用车板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601238 | 广汽集团 | 8.56 | 4.52% | 105.64万 | 8.91亿 | | 601127 | 赛力斯 | 125.32 | 3.31% | 37.57万 | 46.78亿 | | 600733 | 北汽蓝谷 | 8.29 | 2.98% | 211.73万 | 17.37 Z | | 002594 | 比亚迪 | 66'66 | 1.92% | 52.18万 | 51.85亿 | | 600104 | 上汽集团 | 15.54 | 1.83% | 68.29万 | 10.54亿 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for BYD is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - BYD's sales for 2025 are expected to increase year-on-year, continuing its push towards high-end products and exports [1] - The company is projected to achieve a total revenue of RMB 839.36 billion in 2025, reflecting an 8.01% year-on-year growth [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be RMB 35.01 billion in 2025, representing a decrease of 13.03% compared to the previous year [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is estimated at RMB 3.84 for 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 25.55 [1] Financial Projections - Total revenue projections for BYD from 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: RMB 602.32 billion - 2024: RMB 777.10 billion - 2025: RMB 839.36 billion - 2026: RMB 962.02 billion - 2027: RMB 1,107.28 billion [1] - Net profit projections for the same period are: - 2023: RMB 30.04 billion - 2024: RMB 40.25 billion - 2025: RMB 35.01 billion - 2026: RMB 50.93 billion - 2027: RMB 66.39 billion [1] - The company expects to maintain a net profit margin of approximately 4.17% in 2025 [9] Sales and Market Performance - BYD's cumulative sales for 2025 are projected to reach 5.52 million units, a 20% increase year-on-year, with exports expected to account for 150,000 to 160,000 units [8] - The company has seen a significant increase in high-end vehicle sales, with December sales reaching 70,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 161% [8] - The company has established overseas production capacity exceeding 300,000 units per year, with factories in Brazil, Thailand, and Uzbekistan already operational [8] Battery and Energy Storage - BYD's battery installation for 2025 is expected to grow by 47%, with external battery supply also experiencing significant growth [8] - The company anticipates battery shipments for energy storage to exceed 50 GWh in 2025 and approximately 80 GWh in 2026 [8]

| | | | 2025年中国乘用车行业A股上市企业市值排行榜 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 排名 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 市值(亿元) | 上市日期 | 所在地区 | | 1 | 002594. SZ | 比亚迪 | 8909. 33 | 2011-06-30 | 广东省 | | 2 | 601127. SH | 塞力斯 | 2107. 11 | 2016-06-15 | 重庆市 | | 3 | 601633. SH | 长城汽车 | 1936. 65 | 2011-09-28 | 河北省 | | র্ব | 600104. SH | 上汽集团 | 1749.58 | 1997-11-25 | 上海市 | | 5 | 000625. SZ | 长安汽车 | 1175. 81 | 1997-06-10 | 重庆市 | | 6 | 601238. SH | 广汽集团 | 832. 08 | 2012-03-29 | 广东省 | | 7 | 601777. SH | 千里科技 9 | 480. 59 | 2010-11-25 | 重庆市 | | ...

来源：兴证策略 拥挤度是兴证策略团队独家构建的反映热门赛道交易情绪的重要指标，由量能、价格、资金、分析师预测四大维度、七大指标合成而来，量化跟踪市场情 绪变化，对于股价短期走势有较强指示意义。 资料来源：Wind，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 注：时间范围为2025/12/29-2025/12/31 资料来源：Wind，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 注：时间范围为2025/12/5-2025/12/31 整体来看， 前期市场呈现由部分主题引领上涨的格局，赚钱效应集中在少数板块，因此当前虽然部分主题驱动的板块拥挤度已至高位，而大多数板块拥 挤度仍在中等或偏低水平，仍有较多机会可挖。 一、TMT 1、光模块：拥挤度中等偏高 资料来源：Wind，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 2、服务器：拥挤度水平中等偏低 资料来源：Wind，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 3、基站：拥挤度水平中等偏高 4、光纤光缆：拥挤度水平较高 资料来源：Wind，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 5、IDC：拥挤度水平中等 资料来源：Wind，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 6、计算机设备：拥挤度水平中等偏高 资料来源：Wind，兴业证券经济与金融研 ...