券商秋季策略会正在"如火如荼"地进行中。 截至目前，已有华泰证券、广发证券、华福证券、国金证券等券商举办了秋季策略会，对宏观经济前景 和A股市场配置进行了展望。 整体上看，券商分析师普遍认为，在多重积极因素支撑下，A股市场有望保持中长期持续向好趋势。配 置方面，券商较为看好的方向集中在科技、消费与非银金融等方向。 从行业配置来看，券商在秋季策略中普遍看好科技成长主线，认为其作为经济转型的重要力量将受益于 政策支持和市场需求。同时，内需消费也是机构关注度较高的领域。 在广发证券策略首席分析师刘晨明看来，景气成长类资产仍是市场主线，市场交易的是新的产业周期、 创新周期和渗透率变化。就具体配置而言，建议关注四大方向：一是包括金融IT、券商、保险在内的非 银金融板块；二是从低位博弈角度出发，看好A股地产链及港股地产板块；三是海外算力链和创新药板 块；四是国产算力、国内AI基建、AI端侧应用等板块，其仍处于产业预期修复过程中。 广发证券首席经济学家郭磊认为，近期市场呈现出较为明显的"高成长叙事"特征，即具备高成长性的产 业或行业表现更为突出。参考历史表现，市场出现"高成长叙事"特征时，宏观经济环境通常满足风险阶 段性出 ...

Group 1 - The overall trend of the A-share market is expected to be positive in the medium to long term, supported by multiple favorable factors [1][2] - Analysts from various securities firms are optimistic about sectors such as technology, consumption, and non-bank financials [1][2] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment is conducive to a positive trend in the A-share market, with sufficient policy support and a reasonably ample monetary policy ensuring liquidity [2] - The "high growth narrative" is evident in the market, with high-growth industries or sectors performing prominently [2] - Domestic economic policies will focus on addressing real estate and local hidden debt risks, stimulating domestic consumption, and encouraging effective investment [2] Group 3 - The securities firms are particularly bullish on technology growth as a key driver of economic transformation, benefiting from policy support and market demand [4] - The main investment directions suggested include non-bank financial sectors, real estate chains, overseas computing power chains, and domestic AI infrastructure [4] - The outlook for manufacturing sector recovery is becoming clearer, with recommendations to focus on physical assets and sectors benefiting from domestic demand [4] Group 4 - Current market conditions are characterized by a balance between liquidity and fundamental drivers, with expectations for a turning point in return on equity (ROE) in Q4 [5] - There are indications of some overbought conditions in the market, suggesting the need for investors to reserve some positions for potential future volatility [5][6]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's shift from a hardline stance against inflation to a more accommodative approach under pressure from political figures like Trump indicates a significant policy change [1][5][9] - The probability of a rate cut in September surged to 86.9% following comments from Fed officials, signaling a potential capitulation to political pressure [5][9] - Trump's actions, including the dismissal of a Fed board member, have created substantial political pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates, which could save the U.S. government approximately $1 trillion in annual interest payments if rates drop to 1% [7][9] Group 2 - The depreciation of the U.S. dollar, with the dollar index falling from 110.17 to 97.77, has led to a significant appreciation of the Chinese yuan, which strengthened from 7.42 to 7.12 yuan per dollar [11][11] - The decline in U.S. interest rates has made the dollar less attractive, prompting capital to flow towards markets with higher yields, such as China, where economic recovery is evident [13][15] - Foreign investment in Chinese assets has surged, with a net increase of $10.1 billion in domestic stocks and funds in the first half of the year, reversing a two-year trend of net outflows [20][22] Group 3 - China's economic fundamentals are strong, with a 6.1% increase in exports from January to July, particularly to regions like the EU and Latin America, which helps mitigate declines in exports to the U.S. [22][24] - The Chinese government has increased its fiscal spending significantly, with a new debt quota up by 2.5 trillion yuan, enhancing economic growth potential [24] - The comparative stability and professionalism of China's monetary policy, in contrast to the politicization seen in the U.S., has made Chinese assets more appealing to global investors [26] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve's rate cuts provide the Chinese central bank with more policy space to lower financing costs for businesses, particularly in manufacturing and technology sectors [28][29] - While a stronger yuan may pose challenges for traditional exporters, the overall demand for Chinese goods may increase due to a stabilized U.S. economy [31][33] - The potential rise in commodity prices due to a weaker dollar could lead to increased costs for China, but moderate inflation may stimulate consumption and investment [35] Group 5 - The changes in monetary policy and capital flows present a unique opportunity for the internationalization of the yuan, with more central banks considering increasing their yuan asset allocations [39] - The evolving dynamics between the U.S. and China may lead to a new phase in economic relations, impacting investment strategies and market behaviors [39]

Group 1 - The National Standardization Administration and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology have issued a plan to establish a high-quality standard system for industrial mother machines by 2026, aiming to enhance product quality and equipment upgrades through high-level standards [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will expand the range of products available for qualified foreign institutional investors starting September 10, 2025, including new futures and options contracts for petroleum asphalt and fuel oil [2] - The National Healthcare Security Administration is promoting the direct issuance of maternity allowances to individuals, with 20 provinces implementing this system, covering nearly 80% of the coordinated areas [3] Group 2 - Guizhou Moutai's controlling shareholder increased holdings by 67,821 shares on September 1 [5] - BYD's new energy vehicle sales reached 373,600 units in August [5] - Chengdu Huami released a 40G high-precision RF direct ADC chip [5] - JD Group made a voluntary public acquisition offer to CECONOMY [5] - Sichuan Jinding's subsidiary obtained a mining license [6] - Su Dawei plans to acquire up to 51% of Changzhou Weipu [6]

产业结构方面，高技术制造业和装备制造业PMI分别为51.9%和50.5%，比上月上升1.3和0.2个百分点， 景气度相对较高。反映在股市上，创业板和科创板持续跑赢主板，科技成长成为近期主线：创业板指8 月累计上涨24.13%，科创50指数8月累计上涨28.00%。受益于成交量显著放大、资金加速流入，弹性较 其他主流宽基指数更大的两创板块估值空间得到打开。 展望后市，创新药、国产算力、机器人等板块依然有明确的业绩成长，未来或将继续带动成长板块走出 突破，而创业板较好地覆盖了此类高成长的方向。此外，创业板指目前估值仍处于近五年50%左右的分 位数，相较沪深300、中证500等指数偏低。建议投资者立足产业趋势，把握布局创业板50ETF （159375）、科创创业ETF（588360）等标的的机会。 A股震荡收涨。上证指数收于3875.53点，上涨0.46%，成交额12083亿元；深证成指收于12828.95点，上 涨1.05%，成交额15416亿元。个股方面两市整体涨多跌少，通信、医药方向继续走强，非银金融、银 行板块有所回调。 今日，标普全球公布数据显示，中国8月标普全球制造业PMI为50.5，前值为49.5，景 ...

宏观周报 2025 年 9 月 1 日 美国 7 月 PCE 未改降息预期， 国内 8 月制造业弱修复 核心观点 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0384165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 投资咨询号：Z0017785 ⚫ 海外方面，7月美国个人消费支出环比增长0.5%，实际增长 0.3%，显示消费动能仍具韧性；PCE通胀同比维持在2.6%，核 心PCE同比升至2.9%，创五个月新高，凸显服务价格带动的核 心通胀压力有所抬升。整体通胀仍处于可控区间，市场对美联 储9月降息25B ...

智通财经APP获悉，周一公布的一项调查显示，英国制造商在8月份遭遇新的挫折，海外贸易紧张局势 以及国内增税导致新订单减少。英国制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)五个月来首次下降，从7月份的六个月 高点48.0降至8月份的47.0。该数据低于初值47.3，且连续第11个月处于收缩区间。 一些雇主认为全球市场状况将会趋于稳定，而另一些雇主则担心税收再次增加和能源成本上升。 人们普遍预计英国财政大臣雷切尔·里夫斯将在今年晚些时候的预算中再次提高税收。 制造业约占英国经济产出的9%。根据上个月发布的PMI初值，占主导地位的服务业8月加速扩张。服务 业PMI终值将于周三公布。 新订单与成品库存的比例(通常被视为生产未来变化的早期信号)已降至自2023年10月以来的第二低水 平。 企业连续第10个月裁员，这可能加剧英国央行部分官员的担忧，他们担心劳动力市场将急剧放缓。 标普全球表示，需求疲软、全球贸易关税以及4月最低工资上调和雇主税负增加后客户成本上升，这些 因素导致出口下滑，新订单以四个月来最快的速度萎缩。 投入价格通胀率达到了5月以来的最高水平，部分原因是4月份税收增加，不过部分成本上涨已转嫁给了 客户，尽管产出价格的上 ...

（记者 曾健辉） 截至发稿，万业企业市值为150亿元。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——个人消费贷贴息明日开闸！贷30万元最多可享贴息3000元，一文读懂→ 每经AI快讯，万业企业（SH 600641，收盘价：16.09元）9月1日晚间发布公告称，上海万业企业股份有 限公司第二大股东三林万业（上海）企业集团有限公司持有公司约7035万股股份，占公司总股本的 7.56%，截至本公告披露日，三林万业累计质押6656万股股份，占其持有公司股份总数的94.62%，占公 司总股本的7.15%。 2024年1至12月份，万业企业的营业收入构成为：房地产业占比48.34%，制造业占比41.44%，服务业占 比8.72%，其他业务占比1.49%。 ...

Group 1: Economic Indicators - In August, manufacturing PMI in both the US and Europe exceeded expectations, indicating economic resilience, which may lead the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts, catalyzing a recovery trade [1] - Domestic PMI data for August shows stabilization in manufacturing, improvement in services, and a decline in construction [1] Group 2: Market Performance - The A-share market has accelerated since August, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking key levels and daily trading volume reaching 30 trillion yuan multiple times [2] - The technology sector is experiencing a significant influx of funds, indicating a cycle of acceleration in both market performance and capital flow [2] Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market showed signs of recovery in the first half of the week (August 25-29), but optimism in equity markets persisted, leading to a lack of downward momentum in the bond market [1] - The relative attractiveness of equities compared to bonds has begun to decrease as equity prices continue to rise while the bond market adjusts [1] Group 4: Commodity Insights - The expectation of financial conditions easing before the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is beneficial for gold performance in the short term [5] - Oil demand is projected to be weak over the next 25 years, with ongoing supply releases putting downward pressure on oil prices [4]

Group 1 - The US-China trade war has reached a "ceasefire" state after three rounds of negotiations, with the US not gaining substantial benefits, leading to a shift in Trump's rhetoric [1][3] - The trade war initiated by the Trump administration in 2018 did not yield the expected results for the US, with tariffs on China soaring to 104% and then 145% [3] - China responded firmly to US tariffs, increasing its own tariffs to 125%, demonstrating its resolve to stand firm against US pressure [3][5] Group 2 - The US Treasury Secretary expressed surprise at China's strong response, noting that China is the only country willing to challenge the US [5][7] - The trade war has highlighted China's significant position in the global economy, being the largest producer and exporter of key materials and having a robust industrial system [9] - The US's reliance on China for critical materials, such as rare earths, poses a risk to its own industries, as tariffs could lead to increased costs for American consumers [9][17] Group 3 - The US's attitude towards China has softened, with the Treasury Secretary acknowledging China's status as a "great nation" and recognizing the need for cooperation [7][12] - Trump's recent statements indicate a shift towards seeking a friendly relationship with China, driven by the need to address key issues like rare earth supply and trade deficits [12] - Russia is positioning itself to benefit from the US-China trade war, as it creates opportunities for Russian businesses in China amidst Western sanctions [14][15]