Core Points - The article discusses the significant impact of President Trump's new tariff policy, which imposes at least a 10% tariff on all imported goods starting April 5, and higher tariffs on countries deemed as serious trade violators [1] - The policy is viewed as a major shift in international trade order since World War II, raising concerns among family offices and investors about its implications for the market and economy [1][11] Impact on Family Offices - Family offices are increasingly reconsidering their investments in the U.S. due to concerns over economic growth and policy uncertainty stemming from the new tariffs [11][19] - There is a noticeable trend of high-net-worth family office clients diversifying their portfolios away from the U.S. to mitigate risks associated with the trade war [11][20] - Some family offices are exploring investments in hard assets like gold and real estate, while others are raising cash to wait for market stabilization [19][20] Market Reactions - The aggressive tariff strategy has led to a significant market downturn, with the U.S. stock market experiencing its worst week since March 2020 [1] - Notable private equity firms have halted IPOs and acquisitions due to the uncertainty created by the tariffs, indicating a paralysis in the private equity sector [3][4] - Hedge funds are facing increased pressure and are considering stepping back from trading due to the chaotic market conditions, with some funds suffering significant losses [6][8] Economic Forecasts - Goldman Sachs has downgraded its U.S. economic growth outlook and increased the probability of a recession to 45%, citing tightening financial conditions and rising policy uncertainty [8][10] - The potential for tariffs to raise effective rates by 20 percentage points could lead to further revisions in economic forecasts, including the likelihood of a recession [10] - UBS estimates that the new tariffs could slow global economic growth by 50 to 100 basis points, with the most significant impacts felt in Thailand and Singapore [10] Investment Trends - There is a shift among ultra-high-net-worth investors towards European and Asian markets, driven by concerns over U.S. economic policies and the search for better growth opportunities [11][19] - Family offices are increasingly looking for international investments not only for diversification but also as a hedge against currency fluctuations and to access unique investment opportunities [11][19] - The trend of reallocating investments away from the U.S. is becoming more pronounced, with family offices seeking to capitalize on emerging opportunities in other regions [19][20]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious yet strategic investment environment in the Chinese private equity market for 2024, emphasizing a shift towards sectors aligned with national priorities such as hard technology and advanced manufacturing [6][7]. Core Insights - The Chinese private equity industry is undergoing structural changes due to valuation adjustments, geopolitical tensions, and a sluggish IPO market, leading to a focus on value creation rather than mere valuation multiples [6]. - State-owned capital and government-guided funds have emerged as the primary sources of funding in the private equity market, compensating for the withdrawal of foreign capital [7][24]. - Despite an overall decline in the market, certain high-tech sectors, particularly semiconductors and advanced manufacturing, continue to attract significant investment [8][41]. - The IPO market remains constrained, prompting a shift towards mergers and acquisitions as alternative exit strategies [10][49]. Summary by Sections 2024 China Private Equity Market Overview - The private equity market in China is navigating through a challenging fundraising environment, with new fund registrations dropping by 44% year-on-year to 4,143 funds and total fundraising declining by 30% to RMB 269 billion [14]. - The total number of existing private equity funds reached 55,000, with a total scale of RMB 14.3 trillion, remaining stable compared to the previous year [14]. Market Insights - The fundraising landscape is increasingly dominated by state-owned and government-guided funds, which have seen a 50% increase in the number of contributions and a 35% increase in the amount contributed compared to 2023 [24]. - The report highlights a significant shift in investment strategies, with private equity firms forming partnerships with state-owned enterprises and sovereign wealth funds to adapt to the new market conditions [6][7]. 2024 China PE/VC Market Investment Situation - Investment activity in the Chinese private equity market has seen a slight decline, with venture capital transactions maintaining a high level of activity, accounting for over 76% of total transactions [36]. - Notable investments include significant funding rounds in high-tech sectors, with the semiconductor industry receiving over RMB 130 billion in investments [41]. 2024 China PE/VC Market Exit Situation - The report notes a growing trend towards mergers and acquisitions as exit strategies, with 376 private equity funds successfully exiting through M&A, marking a 23% increase from the previous year [49]. - The number of IPO exits has significantly decreased, with only 36% of exits occurring through IPOs in 2024, down from 68% in 2021 [54].

近期， 市场目光高度聚焦于"4月2日" ，即美国可能升级进口关税的日子。 更值得警惕的是，由黑石(BX)、KKR、凯雷(CG)、阿波罗(APO)和几大银行股（摩根大通、美国银行、富国银行、花旗）组成的私募股权指数在过去两个月下 跌了22%，表明市场压力明显加剧。 然而，美国银行策略师Michael Hartnett认为， "4月2日"或被过度炒作，真正的"分水岭"是4月4日公布的美国3月非农就业数据。 Hartnett分析称，为避免引发第二波通胀压力，特朗普政府可能会刻意淡化4月2日的影响。而4月4日的就业报告将更清晰地显示经济是否实现软着陆，并为4月 市场方向提供更可靠的指引，因而更值得市场关注。 4月4日：真正的市场转折点，两种可能的市场反应 在最新 "资金流向报告"（Flow Show）中，Hartnett表示，特朗普政府可能会刻意淡化4月2日的影响，而非像市场预期的那样大肆渲染。 其主要原因是避免引发第二波通胀压力——考虑到通胀仍是美国经济和政治的敏感话题，特朗普政府有充分动机避免关税政策引发新一轮价格上涨。 相比之下，Hartnett强调4月4日发布的3月就业报告将成为判断经济软着陆或硬着陆的关键指 ...

2 0 2 4年，中国国际科技促进会母基金分会和母基金研究中心（c h i n a -f o f. c om，下同）在深 圳、上海、武汉、广州、成都、杭州、合肥连续举办七场研讨会。为加强私募股权行业内各机 构的合作交流，促进母基金行业健康发展，中国国际科技促进会母基金分会和母基金研究中心 于2 0 2 5年继续在全国各地举办多场LP&GP研讨会。 2 0 2 5年首场研讨会来到了深圳—— 2 0 2 5年3月2 6日，2 0 2 5 "新时代的母基金"全国研讨会（深 圳站） 暨"香蜜湖8号资本荟"第1 2期活动在深圳香蜜湖国际风投创投街区综合服务平台成功举 办。本次研讨会，由中国国际科技促进会母基金分会主办，母基金研究中心承办，福田资本运 营集团 协办。本场研讨会的主题为探讨" 国办1号文后母基金行业的未来趋势 "，来自行业协 会、政府引导基金、市场化母基金、一流投资机构代表等7 0余人齐聚一堂，为中国股权投资行 业建言献策。 会议伊始，中国国际科技促进会母基金分会秘书长、母基金研究中心联合创始人、水木资本合 伙人王爽发布了《2 0 2 4中国母基金全景报告》。据悉，截至2 0 2 4年1 2月3 1日，中国 ...

Core Insights - The private equity market is experiencing significant activity, with new fund launches and strategic acquisitions being highlighted [5]. Group 1: Private Equity Market Overview - The private equity market is seeing new fund launches and notable transactions, indicating a robust investment environment [5]. - The acquisition of the contact lens manufacturer, Kingko International, by Anhong Capital, backed by Yintuo Group, showcases strategic moves within the sector [5]. Group 2: Hedge Fund Market Review - Bloomberg's preliminary data indicates that hedge funds rose by 1.5% in January, with the Bloomberg Equity Hedge Fund Index leading the gains [4]. - The hedge fund market is actively recruiting talent to capitalize on the recovery of Japan's $7.1 trillion government bond market [5]. Group 3: Notable Transactions and Developments - A consortium's proposal to acquire Seven & i Holdings Co. faced financing challenges, highlighting the complexities in management buyouts [5]. - The luxury sneaker brand Golden Goose postponed its IPO, with Blue Pool Capital acquiring a minority stake, reflecting cautious market sentiment amid declining demand in China [5].

以下文章来源于并购最前线 ，作者王露 并购最前线 . 继续扫货。 作者 I 王露 报道 I 投资界-并购最前线 黑石最新一笔并购出现了。 1月7日，黑石集团宣布收购会计及咨询公司Citri n Coop e rma n的多数股权。这笔交易对 该公司估值超过20亿美元（约合1 4 6亿元人民币）。 这笔交易背后还有一次漂亮退出。黑石是从另一家PE巨头New Mount a i n Ca pit a l手中接 过这个项目。其中，New Mou nt a i n在2021年入局时，该公司估值约为5亿美元。 投资界（PEdaily.cn）旗下，专注并购动态 三年时间，在New Mou nt a i n的加持下，Citri n Co ope rma n的年收入从3. 1 5亿美元提高 到了8. 5亿美元，估值涨了超过4倍。公司还收购了十多个区域型会计师事务所及相关企 业，成功跻身美国20大会计师事务所之列。 这对于New Mount a i n来说，几乎是一次完美的退出。而对于黑石来说，则是首次踏上会 计咨询行业的新征途。 而黑石大手笔，再次验证了眼下PE扫货一幕。 黑石买下一家咨询公司 先来看交易细节。 声明中表示， ...

"过去几十年，很多人把时代的赠予认为是自己的能力，未来要考验硬功夫。" 文丨高洪浩 编辑丨宋玮 钱杨 "回想这项投资，我有诸多感慨和遗憾。" "我就犯过这样的错误。" …… 从事 PE（私募股权）投资 30 年，孙强不避讳谈论自己的失败，这在一个赤裸裸以挣了多少钱论成败的行 业不多见。 进入中国以来，华平一直是这里最活跃的外资 PE 之一——对多个行业的超过 170 家企业累计投资超过 160 亿美元。相比之下，KKR 在中国投资企业数量只有 40 余家，累计投资额在 70 亿美元左右；凯雷的累 计投资额则在 100 亿美元上下。 1992 年底，在高盛任职的孙强从纽约搬往中国香港。当时，中国内地的金融改革正如火如荼，国有企业股 份制改造推动了一批即将赴港上市的企业，外资投行们无不虎视眈眈地盯着这块蛋糕。 10 多年前，孙强开始动笔把自己的职业生涯和投资经历记录下来，最近以《一个投资家的成败自述》为题 出版。他不愿意强调个人，不想把自己的名字写进标题，而是以自我检视的口吻回顾他主导和参与过的 PE 投资项目，剖析从失败中得到的经验和教训。 "张磊、沈南鹏等同行的故事比我有意思一百倍，我没他们那么成功，所以敢写 ...

马斯克妥协？ 美国将没有竞业 台积电被美国员工选为最差雇主 关注《晚点财经》并设为星标，第一时间获取每日商业精华。 马斯克妥协？ 一个月前特斯拉新车涨价，打算倾注资源做无人驾驶出租车。一个月后特斯拉又降价，并承诺很快会有 更多的平价车 —— 反复之间，特斯拉 —— 或者说马斯克，在对市场妥协，并以这种方式换取继续做他 眼中不平庸产品的机会。 这种妥协极大缓解投资者对特斯拉的悲观预期，在报告了 2020 年二季度以来的首个收入下滑季度后， 因为马斯克的最新表态，特斯拉盘前股价跳涨 12%。 这将有望部分缓解特斯拉销量增长困境。今年一季度特斯拉销量下滑 8.5%、至 38.7 万辆车，连续两个 季度不及上年同期。供应链人士说，为了应对缩减的市场需求，特斯拉下调上海工厂生产目标，目前产 能利用率约为 60%。 为了逆转销量，特斯拉本周在中国、美国和欧洲对所有车型降价 2000 美元或等值货币。 马斯克认为，下一阶段特斯拉的主要增长动力将来自 FSD （完全自动驾驶系统）。用户可买断或者按月 支付费用以使用 FSD 。特斯拉近期也下调了 FSD 售价来促进销量。 他透露特斯拉正与一家大型车企讨论 FSD 功能的授权合 ...