投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【玻璃纯碱（ 】 情绪再度回落，价格承压为主 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2025-12-08 黄志鸿 从业资格证号：F3051824 投资咨询证号：Z0015761 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 玻璃:供给减量，价格有支撑 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | 产量下降。本周全国浮法玻璃日产量为15.5万吨，比27日-1.4%。行业开工率为73.4%，比27日-0.92个百分点；行业产能利用率为77.25%，比27 日-1.33个百分点。本周条3条生产线放水冷修，1条生产线点火，产量延续下降趋势。下周暂无生产线存在点火或者冷修计划，产量预计持稳。 | | 需求 | 中性 | 需求有支撑，近期局部供应减量影响下，原片企业阶段性出货良好，但终端需求支撑有限，订单排产情况不佳拖累业者信心，当前市场以刚性 | | | | 需求为主，对整体产销的实际支撑较为有限。 | | 库存 | 中性 | 库存去化，企业库存5944.2万重箱，环比-292万重箱，环比-4.68%，同比+23.25%。折库 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The core contradictions affecting the trends of glass and soda ash are the potential cold repairs of some glass production lines from December to before the Spring Festival, the near - month contract following the delivery logic with ongoing disputes, and the cost - based pricing and supply - demand situation of soda ash. The short - term trend is unclear, and observation is recommended. [1] - For glass, near - end cold repairs are mostly realized, with daily melting dropping to around 155,000 tons, and there is an expected further decline in December. The 01 contract focuses on warehouse receipt games, and the spot price is restricted by high intermediate inventories and the off - season. For soda ash, it fluctuates with cost, with new capacity pending and high inventories and high production expectations suppressing the absolute price. [2] - The trading strategy suggests observing the 01 contract's warehouse receipt game and focusing on expectations for the 05 contract. In the short term, it is advisable to wait and see. The glass 1 - 5 reverse spread should be put on hold, and on the 05 contract, consider going long on glass and short on soda ash. [6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - From December to before the Spring Festival, some glass production line cold repairs are yet to be realized, which may impact far - month pricing and market expectations. [1] - The near - month 01 contract follows the delivery logic, mainly involving warehouse receipt games, which may become clear in mid - to late December. Soda ash is priced based on cost, with new capacity pending and production at a medium - to high level. Without a trend of production reduction, the valuation of soda ash has limited upward potential, and the rigid demand for soda ash is expected to decline due to the renewed expectation of glass cold repairs. [1] - In reality, after partial glass cold repairs, the spot price is temporarily stable, but there may be a price cut in mid - to late December. The inventory of futures - cash traders in Shahe and Hubei remains high, and the spot pressure persists during the off - season. Soda ash is still in an oversupply expectation, with strong upward suppression, but there is cost support in the long run, and the price may fluctuate. [1] 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: The near - end spot situation is still controversial. The cold repair expectation and high intermediate inventories require observation of sustainability, including unexpected cold repairs and spot feedback. Cost and supply expectations affect far - month pricing. [6] - **Strategy Suggestions**: The 01 contract's game is about warehouse receipts, while the 05 contract is more about expectations. The short - term driving force is unclear, so it is recommended to observe. [6] - **Basis, Month - Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: For the month - spread strategy, the warehouse receipts are still uncertain, so the glass 1 - 5 reverse spread should be temporarily put on hold. For the hedging arbitrage strategy, consider going long on glass and short on soda ash on the 05 contract. [7] 3.1.3 Basic Data Overview - **Glass Spot Price**: On December 7, 2025, the prices of major glass products in Shahe remained unchanged compared to the previous day. The average price was 1,049 yuan/ton. Among different regions, the prices in most areas were stable, with some areas such as South China, Southwest China, and Zhejiang having price increases, and Shahe (large - plate) having a price decrease. [9][10] - **Glass Futures Price/Month - Spread**: On December 5, 2025, compared to the previous day, the prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts all decreased, with daily declines of 1.41%, 1.01%, and 1.58% respectively. The month - spreads and basis also showed corresponding changes. [11] - **Glass Daily Sales - to - Production Ratio**: The sales - to - production ratios in different regions such as Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China fluctuated in the recent period. [12] - **Soda Ash Spot Price/Spread**: The prices of heavy and light soda ash in various regions were stable on December 5, 2025, compared to the previous day. The spread between heavy and light soda ash was mostly 50 yuan/ton, except for 100 yuan/ton in Central China. [12] - **Soda Ash Futures Price/Month - Spread**: On December 5, 2025, compared to the previous day, the prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts all decreased, with daily declines of 1.54%, 1.47%, and 2.15% respectively. The month - spreads and basis also changed accordingly. [13] 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Some glass production line cold repair expectations are yet to be realized in December, and the supply is expected to shrink further. If the futures price continues to fall, unexpected cold repairs may increase. [14] - **Negative Information**: The high intermediate inventory of glass persists, and the spot pressure remains. There is still room for price cuts, which affects the delivery price of the 01 contract. New soda ash production capacity (such as 2.8 million tons in Alxa Phase II and 700,000 tons in Yingcheng Xindu) may be launched in mid - to late December, increasing the supply pressure. The renewed expectation of glass cold repairs affects the rigid demand for soda ash. [15] 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Whether there are further clear instructions in industrial policies. [18] - The glass sales - to - production ratio, spot price, and soda ash spot transaction situation. [18] 3.3 Disk Interpretation - The long - short game of the glass main 01 contract this week may continue until near the delivery. The increase in near - end glass cold repairs, combined with high intermediate inventories, leads to a controversial spot situation with limited elasticity. The far - month has expectations of supply reduction and cost increase, which may affect market pricing and expectations. [17] - The basis and month - spread structure of glass and soda ash remain in a C - structure. For glass, as cold repairs increase, the 1 - 5 spread narrows, and the far - month has expectations of cost increase and cold repairs. For soda ash, without a trend of production reduction, the industry's oversupply expectation remains, new capacity is pending, and the far - month has cost increase expectations. [24][25] 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking of the Industrial Chain - **Glass**: Natural gas production lines are in a loss, while petroleum - coke and coal - gas production lines have a small profit. [44] - **Soda Ash**: The cash cost of the ammonia - soda process (in Shandong) is around 1,265 yuan/ton, and the cash cost of the combined - soda process (mainly in Central China) is around 1,180 yuan/ton. [45] 3.4.2 Import and Export Analysis - **Glass**: The monthly average net export of float glass is 60,000 - 70,000 tons, accounting for 1.4% of the apparent demand, with limited impact. [50] - **Soda Ash**: The monthly average net export of soda ash is 180,000 - 210,000 tons, basically in line with expectations, accounting for 5.8% of the apparent demand, with a significantly higher proportion than last year. The export in October exceeded 210,000 tons, maintaining high expectations. [50] 3.5 Supply and Demand and Inventory 3.5.1 Supply - Side and Projections - **Glass Supply**: The daily melting of glass has dropped to around 155,000 tons, and some cold repair production lines are yet to be realized in December, with an expected further decline in daily melting. [55] - **Soda Ash Supply**: This week, the soda ash supply increased due to the resumption of some devices and decreased due to the reduction of others. Shandong Haihua is expected to reduce production in the middle and late period. Currently, the daily production of soda ash has slightly rebounded to around 103,000 - 105,000 tons. It is rumored that new production capacity in Alxa Phase II (2.8 million tons) and Yingcheng Xindu (700,000 tons) may be put into production in mid - to late December. [59][60] 3.5.2 Demand - Side and Projections - **Glass Demand**: The spot price may be cut, and attention should be paid to the spot feedback in mid - to late December. The high intermediate inventory continues, and the spot elasticity is expected to be limited. As of the end of November, the glass deep - processing orders were 10.1 days, with a month - on - month increase of 2.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.9%. The deep - processing raw - glass inventory was 9.4 days, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%. The cumulative apparent demand of glass from January to December (excluding imports and exports) is estimated to decline by 7%. [62] - **Soda Ash Demand**: Currently, the total daily melting of float glass and photovoltaic glass is 243,900 tons, with a month - on - month decline, and the daily rigid demand for soda ash is about 48,800 tons. With the cold repairs of float and photovoltaic glass, the rigid demand for soda ash has further weakened. The finished - product inventory of photovoltaic glass continues to accumulate, and attention should be paid to its sustainability. The cumulative apparent demand of soda ash from January to October (considering imports and exports) is estimated to decline by 1%. [77] 3.5.3 Inventory Analysis - **Glass**: According to Longzhong data, the manufacturer's inventory is 59.442 million weight - boxes, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.92 million weight - boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 4.68%, and a year - on - year increase of 23.25%. The inventory days are 26.8 days, 0.7 days less than the previous period. The intermediate inventories in Shahe and Hubei remain high, and attention should be paid to the de - stocking situation. [86] - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash inventory is 1.5386 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 48,800 tons. Among them, the light soda ash inventory is 727,800 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 12,800 tons, and the heavy soda ash inventory is 810,800 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 36,000 tons. The delivery warehouse inventory is 556,700 tons (a decrease of 27,100 tons). The total inventory of the factory warehouse and delivery warehouse is 2.0953 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 75,900 tons. The upstream inventory is being de - stocked, and the replenishment of light and heavy soda ash is good. [86]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report Core Views Glass Report - In November, multiple glass production lines in China were shut down for maintenance, reducing the daily melting volume by 6,050 tons (equivalent to about 121,000 heavy boxes). However, this did not support glass prices. Market anticipation had been digested, and high inventory led to price - suppressing promotional strategies. The glass market is undervalued, but the real - estate sector's downward pressure persists. Without unexpected changes, a bearish approach to the glass market is recommended [12][13] Soda Ash Report - In November, the soda ash industry's overall operating rate was stable, with high supply pressure. Demand was weak, with downstream enterprises purchasing on - demand and having low acceptance of new quotes. Heavy soda demand was affected by the expected cold - repair of float glass production lines. Due to cost support and industry - wide losses, the decline in spot prices is limited. The upcoming 2.8 - million - ton capacity of the Alxa Phase II project in December may pressure the market. In the short term, the market will continue to fluctuate weakly, and a cautious and bearish approach is recommended [56][57] 3. Summary by Directory Glass Report Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - As of December 5, 2025, the spot price of float glass was 1,070 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month), the main contract closed at 1,010 yuan/ton (down 31 yuan/ton month - on - month), and the basis was 60 yuan/ton (up 31 yuan/ton week - on - week). The weekly average profit for producing float glass with natural gas was - 223 yuan/ton (up 4.27 yuan/ton), with coal was 6.52 yuan/ton (up 2.02 yuan/ton), and with petroleum coke was 21.36 yuan/ton (up 52.84 yuan/ton). National float glass weekly production was 108.51 tons (down 1.88 tons), with 218 operating lines (down 2) and an operating rate of 73.63%. The downstream deep - processing orders were 10.1 days (up 0.2 days), and the Low - e glass operating rate was 45.40% (down 1.10%). National float glass factory inventory was 59.442 million heavy boxes (down 2.92 million), and Shahe area inventory was 3.6488 million heavy boxes (down 0.5976 million) [12] Futures and Spot Market - As of December 5, 2025, the 01 - 05 spread was - 122 yuan/ton (- 10), the 05 - 09 spread was - 59 yuan/ton (- 3), the 09 - 01 spread was 181 yuan/ton (+ 13), and the open interest was 1.9027 million lots [20] Profit and Cost - As of December 5, 2025, the weekly average profit for producing float glass with natural gas was - 223 yuan/ton (up 4.27 yuan/ton), and the low - end price of Henan LNG was 4,150 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan/ton). The weekly average profit with coal was 6.52 yuan/ton (up 2.02 yuan/ton), and with petroleum coke was 21.36 yuan/ton (up 52.84 yuan/ton) [26][29] Supply and Demand - As of December 5, 2025, national float glass weekly production was 108.51 tons (down 1.88 tons), with 218 operating lines (down 2) and an operating rate of 73.63%. The downstream deep - processing orders were 10.1 days (up 0.2 days), and the Low - e glass operating rate was 45.40% (down 1.10%). From January to October 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing was 719.82 million square meters (down 6.80% year - on - year), and in October, it was 61.4721 million square meters (down 19.60% year - on - year). In October, automobile production and sales were 3.3587 million and 3.3221 million vehicles respectively (up 12.09% and 8.82% year - on - year), and from January to October, cumulative production and sales were 27.692 million and 27.687 million vehicles [33][36][39][42] Inventory - As of December 5, 2025, national float glass factory inventory was 59.442 million heavy boxes (down 2.92 million), and Shahe area inventory was 3.6488 million heavy boxes (down 0.5976 million) [46] Soda Ash Report Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - As of December 5, 2025, the spot price of heavy soda in Shahe was 1,132 yuan/ton (down 14 yuan/ton), the main contract closed at 1,162 yuan/ton (down 14 yuan/ton), and the basis was - 30 yuan/ton (unchanged week - on - week). The weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 148.5 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton), and that of the combined - soda process was - 178.5 yuan/ton (up 41.5 yuan/ton). The price of steam coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 809 yuan/ton (down 13 yuan/ton), the low - end price of Henan LNG was 4,150 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan/ton), the price of raw salt in the Northwest was 215 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2,345 yuan/ton (down 86 yuan/ton). The weekly production of soda ash was 70.39 tons (up 0.57 tons), with a capacity utilization rate of 80.74%. Heavy soda production was 38.15 tons (down 0.16 tons), and light soda production was 32.24 tons (up 0.73 tons). The weekly production of float glass was 108.51 tons (down 1.88 tons), with 218 operating lines (down 2) and an operating rate of 73.63%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in October was 3.13 million tons. The factory inventory of soda ash was 1.5386 million tons (down 0.0488 million tons), and the inventory - available days were 12.76 days (down 0.40 days) [56] Futures and Spot Market - As of December 5, 2025, the 01 - 05 spread of soda ash was - 77 yuan/ton (- 22), the 05 - 09 spread was - 60 yuan/ton (+ 9), the 09 - 01 spread was 137 yuan/ton (+ 13), and the open interest was 1.9027 million lots [64] Profit and Cost - As of December 5, 2025, the weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 148.5 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton), and that of the combined - soda process was - 178.5 yuan/ton (up 41.5 yuan/ton). The price of steam coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 809 yuan/ton (down 13 yuan/ton), the low - end price of Henan LNG was 4,150 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan/ton), the price of raw salt in the Northwest was 215 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2,345 yuan/ton (down 86 yuan/ton) [71][74][77] Supply and Demand - As of December 5, 2025, the weekly production of soda ash was 70.39 tons (up 0.57 tons), with a capacity utilization rate of 80.74%. Heavy soda production was 38.15 tons (down 0.16 tons), and light soda production was 32.24 tons (up 0.73 tons). The weekly production of float glass was 108.51 tons (down 1.88 tons), with 218 operating lines (down 2) and an operating rate of 73.63%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in October was 3.13 million tons [81][84][87] Inventory - As of December 5, 2025, the factory inventory of soda ash was 1.5386 million tons (down 0.0488 million tons), and the inventory - available days were 12.76 days (down 0.40 days). Heavy soda factory inventory was 81.08 tons (down 3.60 tons), and light soda factory inventory was 72.78 tons (down 1.28 tons) [91][94]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints presented in the given content Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - **Price and Contract Information**: From November 26 to December 3, 2025, the price of 5mm glass in different regions showed various changes. For example, the price of 5mm glass in Wuhan Changli remained stable at 1130, while the price of 5mm glass in Hubei increased from 990 to 1060. The FG05 contract price decreased from 1169 to 1125, and the FG01 contract price decreased from 1037 to 1020 [1]. - **Profit and Cost**: The profit of North China coal - fired glass increased from 105.7 to 108.3, and the cost decreased from 930.3 to 922.7. The profit of South China natural gas glass remained at - 188.1, and the profit of North China natural gas glass decreased from - 304.5 to - 309.5. The 05FG and 01FG contract natural gas profits also decreased [1]. - **Sales and Production**: The sales and production rate of glass in different regions varied. The sales and production rate in Shahe was 97, in Hubei was 113, in East China was 105, and in South China was 128. The sales of Shahe factories were okay, but the sales of Shahe traders were average, and the spot - futures sales were poor. The transactions in Hubei factories were okay, but the transactions of Hubei mid - stream spot - futures were poor [1]. 纯碱 - **Price and Contract Information**: From November 26 to December 3, 2025, the price of heavy soda ash in different regions also changed. For example, the price of heavy soda ash in Shahe decreased from 1140 to 1130, and the price of heavy soda ash in Central China remained at 1150. The SA05 contract price decreased from 1241 to 1233, the SA01 contract price decreased from 1175 to 1165, and the SA09 contract price decreased from 1309 to 1295 [1]. - **Profit and Cost**: The profit of North China ammonia - soda ash decreased from - 288.7 to - 295.5, and the cost decreased from 1418.7 to 1415.5. The profit of North China combined - soda ash increased from - 445.3 to - 429.6 [1]. - **Inventory and Industry News**: The inventory of the mid - upstream of the soda ash industry continued to decline, and the second - phase project of Yuanxing started feeding [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the latest price, production and sales, inventory and profit data of glass and soda ash, and shows the relevant historical data trends through charts, but does not clearly put forward the core viewpoints [1][2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Category Glass - **Price**: From November 26 to December 3, 2025, the price of 5mm glass in some regions changed slightly. For example, the price of 5mm large - plate glass of Shahe Safety increased from 1044.0 to 1061.0, while that of Shahe Great Wall decreased from 1044.0 to 1036.0. The FG05 contract price decreased from 1169.0 to 1125.0, and the FG01 contract price decreased from 1037.0 to 1020.0 [1]. - **Production and Sales**: On December 3, 2025, the production - sales ratio of glass in Shahe was 109, in Hubei was 99, in East China was 98, and in South China was 131 [2]. - **Profit**: The profit of North China's coal - fired glass increased from 105.7 to 113.3, while the profit of South China's natural gas glass remained at - 188.1. The profit of North China's natural gas glass increased from - 306.6 to - 304.5. The profit of 05FG and 01FG on the natural gas futures market decreased [1]. Soda Ash - **Price**: From November 26 to December 3, 2025, the price of heavy soda ash in some regions changed. For example, the price of Shahe heavy soda ash decreased from 1160.0 to 1130.0. The SA05 contract price decreased from 1244.0 to 1233.0, and the SA01 contract price decreased from 1183.0 to 1165.0 [1]. - **Industry Situation**: The inventory of the mid - upstream of the soda ash industry continued to decline, and the second - phase project of Yuanxing was put into production. The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei delivery warehouses was about 1120, and the price delivered to Shahe was about 1130 [1]. - **Profit**: The profit of North China's ammonia - soda process first increased and then decreased, while the profit of North China's combined - soda process increased [1].

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289号 作者： 邝志鹏市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃期货盘面震荡下行。现货方面，市场成交重心有所下移，下游按需采购为主。供需 与逻辑：伴随玻璃产线冷修增加，带动玻璃需求小幅好转，但玻璃供应收缩程度仍显不足，供需矛盾依 旧较大，高库存压力仍存。后续玻璃厂仍需通过长期亏损完成产能出清，持续关注玻璃冷修及宏观政策 情况。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱期货盘面震荡上行，成本上行有所支撑。现货方面，下游以刚需采购为主。供需与 逻辑：纯碱产销存数据均有所回落，供需矛盾得到小幅缓解，但库存仍处于高位。且考虑到后续浮法玻 璃冷修仍有增加预期，重碱需求面临挑战，压制纯碱价格高度，持续关注下游需求情况对纯碱价格的影 响。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡 纯碱方面：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 宏观及房地产政策、浮法玻璃下游需求、纯碱产线检修和库存变化等。 免责声明： 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保 证。本报 告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布当日的观点和判断。 ...

Report Overview - The report is a morning report on glass and soda ash, issued on December 2, 2025, by the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [1] Glass Section Price and Contract Information - For 5mm glass plates, prices in different regions showed various trends from November 24 to December 1. For example, the price of Shahe Anquan 5mm large plate increased from 1044.0 to 1061.0, with a weekly change of 17.0 and no daily change on December 1. FG05 contract price was 1161.0 on December 1, with a weekly change of 3.0 and a daily change of -9.0 [1] Profit and Cost - North China coal - fired glass profit increased from 73.3 to 128.8, with a weekly change of 55.5 and a daily change of 16.1. North China coal - fired cost decreased from 936.7 to 924.2, with a weekly change of -12.5 and a daily change of -7.1. South China natural gas glass profit remained at -188.1, while North China natural gas glass profit improved from -331.5 to -285.4, with a weekly change of 46.2 and a daily change of 13.2 [1] Market Conditions - Shahe factory's glass sales slightly weakened. The low - price of Shahe traders' glass was around 1053, with average sales, and poor futures - spot sales. In Hubei, the factory price was around 1030, with fair transactions. The sales rates were 97 in Shahe, 112 in Hubei, 96 in East China, and 112 in South China [1] Soda Ash Section Price and Contract Information - Soda ash prices in different regions also had different trends. For example, Shahe heavy soda ash price was 1150.0 on December 1, with no weekly change and a daily change of -10.0. SA05 contract price was 1243.0 on December 1, with a weekly change of -6.0 and a daily change of 8.0 [1] Profit and Cost - North China ammonia - soda process profit decreased from -297.0 to -311.9, with a weekly change of 1.5 and a daily change of -14.9. North China combined - soda process profit decreased from -448.5 to -464.3, with a weekly change of -19.2 and a daily change of -15.8 [1] Market Conditions - The spot price of heavy soda ash at the Hebei delivery warehouse was around 1130, and the delivered price to Shahe was around 1150. The inventory of the mid - and upstream of the soda ash industry continued to decline [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously Bearish**: Crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PVC, ethylene glycol, urea, asphalt, soda ash [1][3][5] - **Cautiously Bullish**: PX/PTA, methanol, natural gas [3][5] - **Bearish Rebound**: L, PP, glass [1][5] - **Bearish Continuation**: Soda ash [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ maintains production policy, supply surplus in the off - season dominates. Geopolitical tensions ease, and prices are under pressure. Consider partial profit - taking on short positions [1][8]. - **LPG**: Saudi Arabia raises CP contract price, but the market has priced it in. There is short - term correction pressure. Consider buying put options [1]. - **L**: Cost support improves, but supply is sufficient, and demand weakens after November. Close short positions and wait for a rebound to go short [1]. - **PP**: 12 - month CP quote rises, providing cost support. Supply is under pressure, and there is a high de - stocking pressure. Close short positions and wait for a rebound to go short [1]. - **PVC**: Chlor - alkali profit is compressed. Social inventory is high, but there is low - valuation support. Consider short - term long positions based on capital dynamics and long - term long positions after inventory de - stocking [1]. - **PX/PTA**: Processing fees are low, supply pressure eases due to device maintenance, and downstream demand is good. Consider going long on dips [3]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply pressure may ease with future device maintenance, but there is a cumulative inventory expectation in December. Lack of upward drivers, consider short positions on rebounds [3]. - **Methanol**: Port inventory is decreasing, but supply pressure is still high. Consider going long on 05 contract on dips [3]. - **Urea**: Supply pressure is large, demand is weak domestically and strong overseas. Consider short positions on rebounds [3]. - **Natural Gas**: Entering the consumption peak season, demand is supported, and prices are likely to rise [5]. - **Asphalt**: Supply and demand are both weak, and prices are under pressure. Continue to hold short positions [5]. - **Glass**: Pay attention to the implementation of cold - repair plans. Short - term may be strong, but long - term is bearish [5]. - **Soda Ash**: Warehouse receipts increase, supply is in a long - term high - production cycle, and demand is weak. Hold short positions on the 01 alkali - glass spread and wait for a rebound to go short [5]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Review**: On November 27, WTI decreased by 0.17%, Brent decreased by 0.78%, and SC increased by 1.30% [7]. - **Basic Logic**: OPEC+ maintains production policy, supply surplus in the off - season, and geopolitical tensions ease [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply: US oil rig count decreases, and Mexican oil production declines. Demand: OPEC expects global oil demand to increase in 2025 and 2026. Inventory: US crude and refined product inventories increase [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider partial profit - taking on short positions. Pay attention to the range of SC [450 - 460] [10]. 3.2 LPG - **Market Review**: On November 28, the PG main contract closed at 4361 yuan/ton, up 2.16% [11]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost is linked to crude oil, downstream demand is resilient, and inventory decreases [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Do not chase the rise, buy put options. Pay attention to the range of PG [4350 - 4450] [13]. 3.3 L - **Market Review**: L2601 contract closed at 6699 yuan/ton [16]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support improves, but supply is sufficient, and demand weakens after November [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions, wait for a rebound to go short. Pay attention to the range of L [6750 - 6900] [18]. 3.4 PP - **Market Review**: PP2601 closed at 6265 yuan/ton [21]. - **Basic Logic**: 12 - month CP quote rises, supply is under pressure, and there is a high de - stocking pressure [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions, wait for a rebound to go short. Pay attention to the range of PP [6350 - 6500] [22]. 3.5 PVC - **Market Review**: V2601 closed at 4586 yuan/ton [25]. - **Basic Logic**: Chlor - alkali profit is compressed, social inventory is high, but there is low - valuation support [26]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short - term long positions based on capital dynamics and long - term long positions after inventory de - stocking. Pay attention to the range of V [4500 - 4700] [26]. 3.6 PX/PTA - **Market Review**: TA05 closed at 4752 yuan/ton [27]. - **Basic Logic**: Processing fees are low, supply pressure eases due to device maintenance, and downstream demand is good. There is a cumulative inventory expectation in December [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider going long on dips. Pay attention to the range of TA [4650 - 4740] [29]. 3.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: Not explicitly mentioned. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic coal - based ethylene glycol device starts to increase, but future integrated device maintenance will ease supply pressure. There is a cumulative inventory expectation in December [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short positions on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of EG [3850 - 3920] [32]. 3.8 Methanol - **Market Review**: Not explicitly mentioned. - **Basic Logic**: Taicang spot strengthens, port inventory decreases, supply pressure is high, and demand improves [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Continue to pay attention to going long on the 05 contract on dips. Pay attention to the range of MA [2105 - 2145] [38]. 3.9 Urea - **Market Review**: URO5 closed at 1743 yuan/ton [39]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is large, demand is weak domestically and strong overseas, and inventory is high [40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short positions on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of UR [1640 - 1680] [41]. 3.10 Natural Gas - **Market Review**: On November 27, the NG main contract closed at 4.850 dollars/million British thermal units, up 6.41% [43]. - **Basic Logic**: EU bans Russian gas imports, entering the consumption peak season, and demand is supported [44]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gas prices are likely to rise. Pay attention to the range of NG [4.680 - 5.000] [45]. 3.11 Asphalt - **Market Review**: On November 28, the BU main contract closed at 2996 yuan/ton, down 0.37% [48]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost is linked to crude oil, supply is sufficient, and demand is in the off - season [49]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Continue to hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of BU [2950 - 3050] [50]. 3.12 Glass - **Market Review**: FG2601 closed at 1053 yuan/ton [53]. - **Basic Logic**: Multiple production lines plan cold - repair in December, but demand is weak [54]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to cold - repair implementation. Short - term may be strong, long - term is bearish. Pay attention to the range of FG [1020 - 1070] [54]. 3.13 Soda Ash - **Market Review**: SA2601 closed at 1239 yuan/ton [57]. - **Basic Logic**: Warehouse receipts increase, supply is in a long - term high - production cycle, and demand is weak [58]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions on the 01 alkali - glass spread and wait for a rebound to go short. Pay attention to the range of SA [1140 - 1180] [58].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents the latest prices, profit margins, and market conditions of glass and soda ash in different regions, including price changes, production and sales, and inventory trends. 3. Summary by Category Glass - **Price Information**: From November 21 to November 28, 2025, the prices of 5mm glass in various regions showed different trends. For example, the price of 5mm large - plate glass from Shahe Anquan increased from 1044.0 to 1061.0, and the price of FG05 contract rose from 1141.0 to 1170.0 [1]. - **Profit Margin**: The profit margins of glass production using different energy sources also changed. The profit of North China coal - fired glass increased from 78.5 to 112.7, while the profit of South China natural gas - fired glass remained at - 188.1 [1]. - **Market Conditions**: The production and sales of glass factories in Shahe have recently strengthened, but the sales of traders are average. In Hubei, the transaction of factories has improved, but the mid - stream transaction has weakened. The production and sales rates in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China are 162, 162, 111, and 116 respectively [1]. Soda Ash - **Price Information**: From November 21 to November 28, 2025, the prices of heavy soda ash in different regions changed. For example, the price of heavy soda ash in Shahe increased from 1140.0 to 1160.0, and the price of SA01 contract rose from 1170.0 to 1177.0 [1]. - **Profit Margin**: The profit margins of soda ash production using different methods also changed. The profit of North China ammonia - soda method increased from - 338.4 to - 297.0, while the profit of North China combined - soda method changed from - 445.6 to - 448.5 [1]. - **Market Conditions**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei's delivery warehouses is around 1130, and the price delivered to Shahe is around 1150. The inventory of the mid - upstream of the soda ash industry continues to decline [1].

Report on the Glass Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The glass industry is currently in a bottom - exploring phase. Although the supply has contracted due to some enterprises' cold - repair of production lines, the overall trading atmosphere in the spot market remains weak. The downstream mainly purchases based on rigid demand, and manufacturers still face significant shipment pressure. The supply - demand contradiction has not been effectively alleviated. It is expected that the short - term market will continue to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to consider short - selling at high prices. Attention should be paid to the actual recovery of downstream orders and the implementation progress of cold - repair production lines [13][14]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Price**: As of November 28, 2025, the spot market price of float glass was 1090 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton week - on - week; the closing price of the glass main contract was 1041 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was 29 yuan/ton, down 72 yuan/ton week - on - week [13][19]. - **Cost and Profit**: The weekly average profit of producing float glass with natural gas was - 227.27 yuan/ton, down 20.43 yuan/ton week - on - week; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 4250 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton week - on - week. The weekly average profit of using coal as fuel was 4.5 yuan/ton, down 21.29 yuan/ton week - on - week; the weekly average profit of using petroleum coke as fuel was - 31.48 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton week - on - week [13][29][32]. - **Supply**: The weekly output of national float glass was 110.39 tons, down 0.63 tons week - on - week. The number of operating production lines was 220, down 1 week - on - week, and the operating rate was 74.51% [13][37]. - **Demand**: The downstream deep - processing orders of float glass were 9.9 days/ton, down 0.90 days week - on - week; the operating rate of Low - e glass was 46.50%, unchanged week - on - week. From January to October 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing was 71982.00 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.80%; in October, the sales area of commercial housing was 6147.21 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.60%. In October, the production and sales of automobiles were 335.87/332.21 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.09%/8.82%; from January to October, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 2769.20/2768.70 million vehicles [13][40][43][46]. - **Inventory**: The national float glass factory inventory was 6236.2 million heavy boxes, down 94.10 million heavy boxes week - on - week; the factory inventory in the Shahe area was 424.64 million heavy boxes, down 38.96 million heavy boxes week - on - week [13][51]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Glass Basis**: As of November 28, 2025, the basis was 29 yuan/ton, down 72 yuan/ton week - on - week [13][19]. - **Glass Inter - month Spread**: As of November 28, 2025, the 01 - 05 spread was - 112 yuan/ton (+35), the 05 - 09 spread was - 56 yuan/ton (+22), the 09 - 01 spread was 168 yuan/ton (- 57), and the open interest reached 192.57 million lots [22]. 3.3 Profit and Cost - **Float Glass Profit and Cost**: The weekly average profit of producing float glass with natural gas was - 227.27 yuan/ton, down 20.43 yuan/ton week - on - week; the weekly average profit of using coal as fuel was 4.5 yuan/ton, down 21.29 yuan/ton week - on - week; the weekly average profit of using petroleum coke as fuel was - 31.48 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton week - on - week [29][32]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Glass Production and Operating Rate**: As of November 28, 2025, the national float glass weekly output was 110.39 tons, down 0.63 tons week - on - week, the number of operating production lines was 220, down 1 week - on - week, and the operating rate was 74.51% [37]. - **Glass Demand**: The downstream deep - processing orders of float glass were 9.9 days/ton, down 0.90 days week - on - week; the operating rate of Low - e glass was 46.50%, unchanged week - on - week. The real - estate and automobile market data are as mentioned above [40][43][46]. 3.5 Inventory As of November 28, 2025, the national float glass factory inventory was 6236.2 million heavy boxes, down 94.10 million heavy boxes week - on - week; the factory inventory in the Shahe area was 424.64 million heavy boxes, down 38.96 million heavy boxes week - on - week [51]. Report on the Soda Ash Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View Last week, the previously overhauled soda ash production facilities were gradually restarted, and the industry's operating load increased slightly. The mainstream soda ash market maintained on - demand sales, and the inventory decreased slightly. The supply of light soda ash was locally tight, and the demand was relatively stable; the demand for heavy soda ash was weak due to the decline in the downstream glass industry's operation. In general, the soda ash market's quotation remained firm due to cost support and pending orders, and the overall trading atmosphere was mild. It is expected that the soda ash price will remain stable in the short term, but it is still recommended to take a bearish view until the demand side shows significant improvement [62][63]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Price**: As of November 28, 2025, the spot market price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1146 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton week - on - week; the closing price of the soda ash main contract was 1176 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was - 30 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [62][68]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of November 28, 2025, the weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 118.5 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the weekly average profit of the combined - soda process was - 220 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan/ton week - on - week. The price of steam coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 822 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton week - on - week; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 4250 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton week - on - week. The price of raw salt in the northwest region was 215 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2446 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton week - on - week [62][79][82]. - **Supply**: As of November 28, 2025, the weekly output of soda ash was 69.82 tons, down 2.27 tons week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rate was 80.08%. The output of heavy soda ash was 38.31 tons, down 1.31 tons week - on - week; the output of light soda ash was 31.51 tons, down 0.96 tons week - on - week [62][90][93]. - **Demand**: As of November 28, 2025, the national float glass weekly output was 110.39 tons, down 0.63 tons week - on - week, the number of operating production lines was 220, down 1 week - on - week, and the operating rate was 74.51%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in October reached 313 tons [62][96]. - **Inventory**: As of November 28, 2025, the soda ash factory inventory was 158.74 tons, down 5.70 tons week - on - week; the inventory available days were 13.16 days, down 0.47 days week - on - week. The heavy soda ash factory inventory was 84.68 tons, down 4.05 tons week - on - week; the light soda ash factory inventory was 74.06 tons, down 1.65 tons week - on - week [62][101][104]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Soda Ash Basis**: As of November 28, 2025, the basis was - 30 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [62][68]. - **Soda Ash Inter - month Spread**: As of November 28, 2025, the 01 - 05 spread was - 55 yuan/ton (+14), the 05 - 09 spread was - 69 yuan/ton (- 2), the 09 - 01 spread was 124 yuan/ton (- 12), and the open interest reached 192.57 million lots [71]. 3.3 Profit and Cost - **Soda Ash Profit**: As of November 28, 2025, the weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 118.5 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the weekly average profit of the combined - soda process was - 220 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan/ton week - on - week [79]. - **Raw Material Cost**: The price of steam coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 822 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton week - on - week; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 4250 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton week - on - week. The price of raw salt in the northwest region was 215 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2446 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton week - on - week [82][85]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Soda Ash Production**: As of November 28, 2025, the weekly output of soda ash was 69.82 tons, down 2.27 tons week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rate was 80.08%. The output of heavy soda ash was 38.31 tons, down 1.31 tons week - on - week; the output of light soda ash was 31.51 tons, down 0.96 tons week - on - week [90][93]. - **Soda Ash Demand**: As of November 28, 2025, the national float glass weekly output was 110.39 tons, down 0.63 tons week - on - week, the number of operating production lines was 220, down 1 week - on - week, and the operating rate was 74.51%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in October reached 313 tons [96]. 3.5 Inventory As of November 28, 2025, the soda ash factory inventory was 158.74 tons, down 5.70 tons week - on - week; the inventory available days were 13.16 days, down 0.47 days week - on - week. The heavy soda ash factory inventory was 84.68 tons, down 4.05 tons week - on - week; the light soda ash factory inventory was 74.06 tons, down 1.65 tons week - on - week [101][104].