Glass Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints Despite October being the traditional peak season, terminal demand this year was weak and failed to support prices. Supply expectations increased as corporate profits recovered, and inventory accumulation exceeded expectations, suppressing spot prices. The market was dominated by weak reality, leading to a negative feedback loop and a significant price drop at the beginning of the month. Although there were short - term price rebounds, they lacked momentum due to weak real - estate demand and high inventory. The market is expected to remain in a weak and volatile pattern, and future attention should be paid to production line maintenance and the coal - to - gas conversion process in the Shahe area [12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Price: As of November 7, 2025, the spot price of float glass was 1130 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period; the closing price of the main contract was 1101 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the basis was 29 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from last week [12][17]. - Cost and Profit: The weekly average profit of producing float glass with natural gas was - 172.7 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; the low - end price of Henan LNG was 4400 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit with coal was 78.1 yuan/ton, up 14.65 yuan/ton; with petroleum coke, it was - 1.77 yuan/ton, down 2.86 yuan/ton [12][26][29]. - Supply: The weekly output of national float glass was 112.89 tons, unchanged; the number of operating production lines was 226, unchanged; the operating rate was 76.35% [12][33]. - Demand: The downstream deep - processing orders of float glass were 10.8 days, down 0.2 days; the operating rate of Low - e glass was 44.30%, up 0.6%. From January to September 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing was 65834.79 million square meters, down 5.5%; in September, it was 8530.87 million square meters, down 11.89%. In September 2025, automobile production and sales were 327.58/322.64 million vehicles, up 17.15%/14.86% year - on - year; from January to September, cumulative production and sales were 2433.30/2436.30 million vehicles [12][36][39][42]. - Inventory: The national float glass factory inventory was 6313.6 million heavy boxes, down 265.4 million heavy boxes; the inventory in the Shahe area was 0 million heavy boxes, down 529.6 million heavy boxes [12][46]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Glass Basis: As of November 7, 2025, the glass basis situation was as described above [17]. - Glass Inter - month Spread: The 01 - 05 spread was - 128 yuan/ton (+22), the 05 - 09 spread was - 90 yuan/ton (+5), the 09 - 01 spread was 218 yuan/ton (-27), and the open interest was 1.9284 million lots [20]. 3.3 Profit and Cost - Float Glass Profit and Cost: The profit and cost details using different fuels (natural gas, coal, petroleum coke) were as mentioned above [26][29]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - Glass Production and Operating Rate: Weekly output, number of operating production lines, and operating rate were as stated [33]. - Glass Demand: Downstream deep - processing orders and Low - e glass operating rate, as well as real - estate and automobile market data, were as described [36][39][42]. 3.5 Inventory - Inventory: National and Shahe area factory inventories were as mentioned [46]. Soda Ash Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The soda ash market is in a long - term supply - demand imbalance. New capacity release and holiday inventory accumulation pressure prices. Downstream demand has not improved, and export orders are weak. Although cost support exists due to industry losses, it has not fully affected prices. The market is expected to remain weak in the short term [56][57]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Price: As of November 7, 2025, the spot price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe area was 1157 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main contract was 1207 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton; the basis was - 50 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [56][61]. - Cost and Profit: The weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 103.5 yuan/ton, down 1.8 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of the combined - soda process was - 212 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton. The price of steam coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 794 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton; the low - end price of Henan LNG was 4400 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton. The price of raw salt in the northwest region was 215 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2120 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [56][71][74][77]. - Supply: The weekly output of soda ash was 74.68 tons, down 1.08 tons; the capacity utilization rate was 85.67%. The output of heavy soda ash was 41.48 tons, down 0.5 tons; the output of light soda ash was 33.2 tons, down 0.58 tons [56][81][84]. - Demand: The weekly output of national float glass was 112.89 tons, unchanged; the operating rate was 76.35%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in September was 3.08 million tons [56][87]. - Inventory: The factory inventory of soda ash was 1.7142 million tons, up 12,200 tons; the available inventory days were 14.21 days, up 0.1 days. The heavy soda ash factory inventory was 89.96 tons, up 1.32 tons; the light soda ash factory inventory was 81.46 tons, down 0.1 tons [56][91][94]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Soda Ash Basis: As of November 7, 2025, the soda ash basis situation was as described above [61]. - Soda Ash Inter - month Spread: The 01 - 05 spread was - 86 yuan/ton (+7), the 05 - 09 spread was - 69 yuan/ton (-5), the 09 - 01 spread was 155 yuan/ton (-2), and the open interest was 1.9284 million lots [64]. 3.3 Profit and Cost - Soda Ash Profit: The profit details of the ammonia - soda process and the combined - soda process were as mentioned above [71]. - Raw Material Cost: The prices of steam coal, LNG, raw salt, and synthetic ammonia were as described [74][77]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - Soda Ash Production: Weekly output, capacity utilization rate, and the output of heavy and light soda ash were as stated [81][84]. - Soda Ash Demand: Float glass output and soda ash apparent consumption were as described [87]. 3.5 Inventory - Soda Ash Inventory: Factory inventory, available inventory days, and the inventory of heavy and light soda ash were as mentioned [91][94].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current situation is weak, but the cost is relatively strong. The game for the 01 contract may continue until delivery. Without unexpected production cuts, a bearish view is maintained for the glass and soda ash 01 contracts [6]. - Structural contradictions still exist. The reduction in glass supply is insufficient to change the oversupply situation, and the high inventory in the middle - stream puts great pressure on the 01 contract. The expectation of glass cold - repair is rising again, which is negative for the rigid demand of soda ash, but the cost side is relatively firm [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for glass is 1000 - 1300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 28.31% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 75.4%. For soda ash, the monthly price range forecast is 1100 - 1400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 17.69% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 9.8% [1]. Market Data - **Glass Futures**: On November 7, 2025, the prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1225, 1315, and 1091 respectively, with daily changes of - 2, - 4, and - 10, and daily change rates of - 0.16%, - 0.3%, and - 0.91% compared to the previous day [7]. - **Glass Spot**: Some glass spot prices in different regions showed little change on November 7, 2025. For example, the safety brand in the Shahe area remained at 1130, while the Great Wall brand increased by 5 to 1126 [8]. - **Soda Ash Futures**: On November 7, 2025, the prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1294, 1363, and 1210 respectively, with daily changes of 1, - 1, and 3, and daily change rates of 0.08%, - 0.07%, and 0.25% compared to the previous day [8]. - **Soda Ash Spot**: On November 7, 2025, the heavy - alkali market prices in some regions such as North China and South China remained unchanged, while the light - alkali market price in some regions had slight changes [9][10]. Hedging Strategies - For glass inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high and worried about price drops, shorting glass futures (FG2601) and selling call options (FG601C1200) are recommended. When the procurement inventory is low and worried about price increases, buying glass futures (FG2601) and selling put options (FG601P1000) are recommended [1]. - For soda ash inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high and worried about price drops, shorting soda ash futures (SA2601) and selling call options (SA601C1400) are recommended. When the procurement inventory is low and worried about price increases, buying soda ash futures (SA2601) and selling put options (SA601P1200) are recommended [1]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: The cost of glass and soda ash (fuel & raw materials) still has an upward expectation, which affects the far - month pricing. The industrial policy expectation cannot be completely excluded and may be repeatedly traded [5]. - **Negative Factors**: The inventories of glass and soda ash in the upper and middle reaches are high, and the downstream's ability to absorb is questionable. The supply pressure remains, and the oversupply situation is difficult to change. After the glass spot price increases, the production and sales have weakened, and the sustainability needs to be observed [5][6].

Group 1: Glass Price and Contract Information - The price of 5mm large - plate glass from various manufacturers has changed. For example, the price of 5mm large - plate glass from Shahe Anquan was 1113 on 2025/10/30, 1138 on 2025/11/5, and remained 1138 on 2025/11/6, with a weekly increase of 25 and no daily change [1]. - FG05 contract price was 1243 on 2025/10/30, 1231 on 2025/11/5, and 1227 on 2025/11/6, a weekly decrease of 16 and a daily decrease of 4 [1]. Profit and Cost - North China coal - fired glass profit was 194 on 2025/10/30, 200 on 2025/11/5, and 192.6 on 2025/11/6, a weekly decrease of 1.5 and a daily decrease of 7.4 [1]. - North China coal - fired glass cost was 919 on 2025/10/30, 921 on 2025/11/5, and 928.4 on 2025/11/6, a weekly increase of 9.5 and a daily increase of 7.4 [1]. Spot and Sales - Shahe factory's glass sales have improved recently. The low - price of Shahe traders' 5mm large - plate glass is around 1121, and the shipment is average. The shipment of spot - futures is also average [1]. - In Hubei, the factory price has risen to around 1100, the factory's transaction has weakened compared to the previous period, but the overall situation is okay. The mid - stream spot - futures in Hubei are at parity, and the transaction is average [1]. - The glass sales rate in Shahe is 132, in Hubei is 106, in East China is 13, and in South China is 100 [1]. Group 2: Soda Ash Price and Contract Information - The price of heavy soda ash in various regions has changed. For example, the price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1180 on 2025/10/30, 1140 on 2025/11/5, and 1160 on 2025/11/6, a weekly decrease of 20 and a daily increase of 20 [1]. - SA05 contract price was 1324 on 2025/10/30, 1282 on 2025/11/5, and 1293 on 2025/11/6, a weekly decrease of 31 and a daily increase of 11 [1]. Profit and Cost - North China ammonia - soda process profit was - 246.7 on 2025/10/30, - 305.2 on 2025/11/5, and - 290.9 on 2025/11/6, a weekly decrease of 44.2 and a daily increase of 14.3 [1]. - North China ammonia - soda process cost was 1396.7 on 2025/10/30, 1415.2 on 2025/11/5, and 1420.9 on 2025/11/6, a weekly increase of 24.2 and a daily increase of 5.7 [1]. Spot and Industry - The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei delivery warehouses is around 1130, and the price delivered to Shahe is around 1160 [1]. - The overall inventory of the mid - and upstream of the soda ash industry remains flat [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Not provided Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - **Price Changes**: From October 28, 2025, to November 4, 2025, the prices of 5mm glass in various regions showed different trends. For example, the price of 5mm glass from Shahe Anquan increased from 1113.0 to 1121.0 and then remained stable, with a weekly increase of 8.0 [1]. - **Contract Price Changes**: The FG05 contract price decreased from 1263.0 to 1239.0, a weekly decrease of 24.0; the FG01 contract price decreased from 1113.0 to 1105.0, a weekly decrease of 8.0 [1]. - **Profit Changes**: The profit of North China coal - fired glass increased from 182.9 to 196.0, a weekly increase of 13.0; the profit of North China natural - gas glass increased from - 244.9 to - 225.4, a weekly increase of 19.5 [1]. - **Spot and Sales**: Shahe factory's glass sales have recently improved, with Shahe traders' low - price products around 1113 and good shipments. In Hubei, the factory price is around 1040, and factory transactions are good. The mid - stream spot - futures trading in Hubei is at par, with fair transactions. The glass sales rates in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China are 165, 138, 112, and 110 respectively [1]. 纯碱 (Soda Ash) - **Price Changes**: From October 28, 2025, to November 4, 2025, the prices of heavy soda ash in various regions showed different trends. For example, the price of heavy soda ash in Shahe decreased from 1190.0 to 1140.0, a weekly decrease of 50.0 [1]. - **Contract Price Changes**: The SA05 contract price decreased from 1331.0 to 1280.0, a weekly decrease of 51.0; the SA01 contract price decreased from 1239.0 to 1189.0, a weekly decrease of 50.0 [1]. - **Profit Changes**: The profit of North China ammonia - soda process decreased from - 236.7 to - 298.2, a weekly decrease of 61.4; the profit of North China combined - soda process decreased from - 252.1 to - 311.5, a weekly decrease of 59.4 [1]. - **Spot and Industry**: The spot price of heavy soda ash at the Hebei delivery warehouse is around 1110, and the price delivered to Shahe is around 1140. The upstream inventory of the soda ash industry has slightly decreased [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Glass is expected to continue in a pattern of weak demand and strong expectations in November 2025, with the 01 contract likely to oscillate at the bottom. Attention should be paid to low - buying opportunities after the premium is reversed. In the long - term, the cost support of the glass industry will gradually strengthen [3][63]. - For soda ash, in the short - term, there is a risk of capacity clearance. The price is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom. The SA01 contract should focus on the previous low support. In the long - term, the valuation of soda ash is not optimistic due to the expected new capacity release [4][102]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Glass 2025 November Strategy Report 3.1.1 Glass 2025 October Review - In October, glass supply was stable, demand was weak, and the speculative demand in the middle - stream turned into speculative supply. The upstream inventory increased rapidly, and the prices in the main producing areas dropped. By the end of the month, the spot price stabilized at a low level [11]. - The FG01 - 05 spread continued the reverse - spread trend, corresponding to the weak reality and the market's expectation of environmental protection and capacity - restriction policies [11]. - In terms of supply, the daily melting capacity was stable in October, with 1 line ignited and no cold - repair. The production cost increased slightly, and the profit situation deteriorated [14]. - On the demand side, the deep - processing orders decreased, and the mid - and downstream inventory decreased. The real - estate data was poor, white - goods production decreased year - on - year, and automobile production maintained a high growth rate [20][22]. 3.1.2 Glass 2025 November Outlook - **Demand**: Affected by the real - estate cycle, glass demand is expected to remain weak. In November, the rigid demand may be weak and stable seasonally. Attention should be paid to whether the middle - stream replenishes inventory [50]. - **Supply**: In November, the ignition and cold - repair of production lines are expected to be relatively balanced. The supply may be affected by cold - repair and policy implementation, but the medium - term positive impact is limited [55]. - **Cost**: In October, the increase in fuel prices raised the production cost of the glass industry. The cost support for prices will gradually strengthen [60]. 3.1.3 Glass Balance Sheet and Strategy Outlook - In November, the glass supply - demand pattern is expected to remain weak year - on - year, and the upstream inventory is expected to be worse than that in the fourth quarter of last year. - The valuation is driven by supply - side factors and potential mid - and downstream inventory replenishment. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and attention should be paid to low - buying opportunities. The 01 - 05 spread has limited room to widen [63]. 3.2 Soda Ash 2025 November Strategy Report 3.2.1 Soda Ash 2025 October Review - In October, the high - supply and high - inventory pattern of soda ash remained unchanged. The spot price decreased slightly after the National Day, and the production cost increased due to the rise in coal prices. The SA01 contract oscillated in the range of 1200 - 1275 yuan/ton [70]. - In terms of supply, the production of soda ash remained high, but the alkali plant's initiative to reduce the load increased. The cost increased, and the industry's loss expanded [79]. - On the demand side, the demand for heavy soda ash from the glass industry was stable, and the demand for light soda ash was supported. The net export of soda ash in September remained at a relatively high level [82][86]. - In terms of inventory, the upstream inventory increased seasonally at the beginning of the month and then changed little under the drive of downstream low - price replenishment [89]. 3.2.2 Soda Ash 2025 November Outlook - **Supply**: The capacity clearance of the soda ash industry is expected to continue in November, but the mid - term price is still under pressure due to the expected release of 2.8 million tons of new capacity from Yuangxing Phase II [95]. - **Demand**: The rigid demand for light soda ash is supported, and the demand for heavy soda ash from the glass industry is expected to be stable [98][99]. 3.2.3 Soda Ash Balance Sheet and Strategy Outlook - In November, the soda ash supply - demand surplus pattern has not changed. The price is affected by the progress of Yuangxing Phase II's production. In the long - term, the valuation of soda ash is not optimistic. - The current price of soda ash is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom. The SA01 contract should focus on the previous low support. The 01 - 05 spread lacks fundamental drivers and is more affected by macro factors [102].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The short - term market lacks clear directional drivers. The supply - strong and demand - weak fundamentals limit the upside potential of prices. The market is expected to continue in a weak and fluctuating pattern. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of inventory reduction and whether industry losses will trigger more production cuts [9][38]. - Operational suggestions include shorting on rallies for single - side trading, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and selling call options opportunistically [39]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main soda ash futures contract SA2601 ranged from 1,221 to 1,260 yuan/ton, showing a narrow - range fluctuation. As of the afternoon close on November 31, 2025, the contract fell 4 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 0.33%, closing at 1,225 yuan/ton [6]. 2. Fundamental Analysis Supply - As of October 30, 2025, the domestic soda ash production was 757,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 17,000 tons or 2.29%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 86.89%, up 1.95% from the previous week [7][10]. Inventory - As of October 31, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.702 million tons, an increase of 9,600 tons from the previous Monday. Light soda ash inventory was 815,600 tons, up 15,200 tons week - on - week, while heavy soda ash inventory was 886,400 tons, down 5,600 tons week - on - week [8][15]. 3. Soda Ash Supply - Demand Situation Production and Capacity Analysis - As of October 30, 2025, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 757,600 tons, with light soda ash production at 337,800 tons (up 7,200 tons week - on - week) and heavy soda ash production at 419,700 tons (up 9,800 tons week - on - week). - The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 86.89%, with the ammonia - soda process at 91.09% (unchanged week - on - week), the co - production process at 77.90% (up 1.67% week - on - week), and the overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of over one million tons at 90.27% (up 2.29% week - on - week) [10][12]. Inventory Analysis - As of October 30, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.702 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 9,600 tons or 0.57%. Light soda ash inventory increased by 15,200 tons, while heavy soda ash inventory decreased by 5,600 tons [15]. Shipment Analysis - On October 30, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 757,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.53%. The overall shipment rate was 100.01%, up 0.23 percentage points week - on - week [16]. Profit Analysis - As of October 31, 2025, the theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 41.70 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 9.30 yuan/ton. - As of October 30, 2025, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of the co - production process was - 165 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4 yuan/ton [20][24]. 4. Downstream Industry Situation - As of October 30, 2025, the daily output of national float glass was 161,300 tons, unchanged from the 23rd. From the 24th to the 30th, the float glass production was 1.1289 million tons, unchanged week - on - week but a year - on - year increase of 1.28%. - As of October 23, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 66.613 million weight boxes, a week - on - week increase of 2.337 million weight boxes or 3.64%, and a year - on - year increase of 16.99%. The inventory days were 28.3 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous period [27][31]. 5. Spot Market Situation - The prices of most products in the domestic soda ash market remained stable, with only a few showing changes. For example, the price of 5500 - calorie thermal coal increased by 8 yuan/ton or 1.05% to 770 yuan/ton, and the price of synthetic ammonia in Jiangsu increased by 36 yuan/ton or 1.65% to 2,219 yuan/ton. The price of float glass decreased by 20 yuan/ton or 1.68% to 1,167 yuan/ton [37]. 6. Comprehensive Analysis - Last week, the main soda ash futures contract showed a weak and fluctuating trend. The core contradiction of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand" in the fundamentals remained prominent. - Supply pressure increased further, with weekly production and capacity utilization rising. Demand improvement was limited, and new orders were insufficient. - Inventory pressure was not relieved, with the total inventory of manufacturers continuing to accumulate, especially the inventory of light soda ash. - Profit conditions deteriorated further, with both the ammonia - soda and co - production processes in deeper losses. Cost support was not enough to reverse the supply - demand pattern [38].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [2] - LPG: Bearish [2] - L: Bearish continuation [2] - PP: Bearish continuation [2] - PVC: Bearish continuation [2] - PX: Cautiously bearish [2] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [4] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [4] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [4] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [4] - Natural gas: Cautiously bullish [6] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [6] - Glass: Bearish continuation [6] - Soda ash: Bearish continuation [6] Core Views of the Report - Overall, most energy and chemical products face downward pressure due to factors such as supply - demand imbalances and oil price trends, while natural gas has some upward support due to seasonal demand [2][4][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market review**: On October 31, international oil prices rebounded, with WTI up 0.68%, Brent up 0.62%, and SC down 0.67% [7][8] - **Basic logic**: OPEC+ plans to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and pause in Q1 2024. Global crude oil inventories are accelerating accumulation, and the core driver is the supply surplus in the off - season [9][10] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold previous short positions and consider adding short positions lightly. Focus on the SC range of [455 - 470] [11] LPG - **Market review**: On October 31, the PG main contract closed at 4,301 yuan/ton, up 0.23% [14] - **Basic logic**: The price is anchored to the cost of crude oil. Geopolitical risks have eased, and the cost has declined. Supply has decreased slightly, and demand has some resilience [15] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the PG range of [4250 - 4350] [16] L - **Market review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,009 yuan/ton, up 0.3% [18] - **Basic logic**: Cost support has weakened. Supply is in a loose pattern, and demand has limited restocking motivation [20] - **Strategy recommendation**: The market maintains a contango structure. Industries should sell at high prices. Focus on the L range of [6950 - 7100] [20] PP - **Market review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6,691 yuan/ton, up 72 [24] - **Basic logic**: Spot prices have not kept up with the increase, and the basis has weakened. There is high inventory - removal pressure in the future, and oil - based cost support is insufficient [25] - **Strategy recommendation**: The market maintains a contango structure. Industries should sell at high prices. Focus on the PP range of [6600 - 6800] [25] PVC - **Market review**: The V2601 contract closed at 4,719 yuan/ton, up 20 [28] - **Basic logic**: Low - valuation support exists, and the loss of a single variety has expanded. Attention should be paid to whether upstream marginal devices can reduce production to ease the supply - demand surplus [29] - **Strategy recommendation**: The market maintains a high contango structure. Industries should hedge at high prices. Focus on the V range of [4600 - 4800] [29] PX - **Market review**: Not specifically mentioned in a unified market review part [30] - **Basic logic**: Supply has domestic reduction and overseas increase. Demand has improved recently but is expected to weaken. PXN and PX - MX are at relatively high levels, and the cost of crude oil is under pressure [30] - **Strategy recommendation**: Consider short - selling at high prices. Focus on the PX range of [6580 - 6680] [31] PTA - **Market review**: TA05 closed at 4,644 yuan/ton, TA11 at 4,536 yuan/ton, and TA01 at 4,586 yuan/ton [32] - **Basic logic**: Processing fees are low. Supply pressure is expected to ease due to potential device maintenance. Terminal demand has slightly improved, but there is an expected inventory build - up in November [33] - **Strategy recommendation**: Exit short positions at low prices and consider short - selling at high prices. Focus on the TA range of [4560 - 4650] [34] Ethylene Glycol - **Market review**: Not specifically mentioned in a unified market review part [36] - **Basic logic**: Domestic and overseas devices have increased their loads. Supply pressure is expected to rise, and there is an expected inventory build - up in November. Valuation is low, but there is no upward drive [36] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously and consider short - selling on rebounds. Focus on the EG range of [3980 - 4050] [37] Methanol - **Market review**: Not specifically mentioned in a unified market review part [40] - **Basic logic**: High inventory suppresses spot price rebounds. Supply pressure is large, and demand is average. Cost support is weak and stable [40] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously. Consider going long on the 01 contract at low prices and the MA1 - 5 reverse spread. Focus on the MA range of [2110 - 2190] [42] Urea - **Market review**: UR05 closed at 1,703 yuan/ton, UR09 at 1,736 yuan/ton, and UR01 at 1,625 yuan/ton [43] - **Basic logic**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand improvement is limited. Valuation is low, and there is a risk of downward movement [44] - **Strategy recommendation**: The fundamentals are weak. Consider going long lightly in the medium - to - long term. Focus on the UR range of [1610 - 1640] [46] Natural Gas - **Market review**: On October 31, the NG main contract closed at 4.205 US dollars per million British thermal units, up 2.69% [49] - **Basic logic**: Geopolitical risks have been released, and demand has increased due to the approaching heating season. Supply is relatively sufficient [50] - **Strategy recommendation**: The cooling temperature supports the gas price, but there is upward pressure. Focus on the NG range of [4.050 - 4.250] [51] Asphalt - **Market review**: On October 31, the BU main contract closed at 3,244 yuan/ton, down 0.31% [53] - **Basic logic**: The price is affected by the decline in oil prices. Supply and demand have both decreased, and inventory has declined [54] - **Strategy recommendation**: The valuation is high, and supply is sufficient. Short positions can be held lightly. Focus on the BU range of [3250 - 3350] [55] Glass - **Market review**: FG2601 closed at 1,095 yuan/ton, up 3 [58] - **Basic logic**: There is intense capital gaming. Inventory has increased counter - seasonally, and supply is under pressure due to profitable production processes [59] - **Strategy recommendation**: Cautiously participate. Bullish in the short - term technically, bearish on rebounds in the medium - term. Focus on the FG range of [1080 - 1130] [59] Soda Ash - **Market review**: SA2601 closed at 1,209 yuan/ton, down 26 [62] - **Basic logic**: It rebounds with the black building materials sector. Inventory has slightly decreased, but it is still at a high level. Supply is expected to increase [63] - **Strategy recommendation**: Industries should sell at high prices. Hold the long position of the soda - glass spread. Focus on the SA range of [1220 - 1270] [63]

玻璃纯碱早报 | 乖 亦安期货 | | --- | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/11/3 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/10/24 2025/10/30 2025/10/31 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | | | 2025/10/24 2025/10/30 2025/10/31 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | 沙河安全 | 1121.0 | 1113.0 | 1113.0 | -8.0 | 0.0 | FG05合约 | 1236.0 | 1243.0 | 1232.0 | -4.0 | -11.0 | | 5mm大 板 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 沙河长城 | 1104.0 | 1113.0 | 1113.0 | 9.0 | 0.0 | FG01合约 | 1092.0 | 1091.0 | 1083.0 | -9.0 | - ...

玻璃纯碱产业风险管理日报 2025/10/31 寿佳露（投资咨询证号：Z0020569） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 玻璃纯碱价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玻璃 | 1000-1300 | 27.83% | 74.5% | | 纯碱 | 1100-1400 | 17.50% | 8.5% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 玻璃纯碱套保策略表 | | 行 为 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 导 | | | | | | （%） | | | | 向 | | | | | | | | | | 库 存 | | | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据 企业的库存情况，做空玻璃期货来 | FG2601 | 卖出 | 50% | 1250 | | | | 产成品库存偏 高，担心玻 ...

| | | | | | 纯 碱 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2025/10/23 2025/10/29 2025/10/30 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | | | 2025/10/23 2025/10/29 2025/10/30 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | 沙河重碱 | 1170.0 | 1210.0 | 1180.0 | 10.0 | -30.0 | SA05合 约 | 1318.0 | 1347.0 | 1324.0 | 6.0 | -23.0 | | 华中重碱 | 1170.0 | 1210.0 | 1180.0 | 10.0 | -30.0 | SA01合约 | 1235.0 | 1259.0 | 1235.0 | 0.0 | -24.0 | | 华南重碱 | 1350.0 | 1350.0 | 1350.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SA09合约 | 1379.0 | 1400.0 | 1382.0 | 3.0 | -18 ...