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国贸期货玻璃纯碱(FG&SA):基本面有支撑,市场有题材
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-07-07 08:32
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 【玻璃纯碱( 】 基本面有支撑,市场有题材 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2025-07-07 黄志鸿 从业资格证号:F3051824 投资咨询证号:Z0015761 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅供参考,不构成任何投资建议;期市有风险,投资需谨慎 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | 产量持稳。本周全国浮法玻璃日产量为15.78万吨,比26日+0.64%。行业开工率为75.68%,比26日+0.68个百分点;行业产能利用率为78.88%, 比26日+0.5个百分点。本周2条产线点火,尚未出玻璃,1条前期点火产线开始出玻璃,所以周度产量环比增加。下周暂无生产线点火或者放水 | | | | 计划,1条前期点火产线或将开始出玻璃,预计下周周度产量环比增长。 | | 需求 | 偏多 | 淡季需求整体承压,但短期保有韧性,产销尚可。中期地产颓势难挽,竣工数据同比延续下滑,后市需求担忧犹存。 | | 库存 | 中性 | 库存震荡,企业库存6908.5万重箱,环比-13.1万重箱,环比-0 ...
玻璃纯碱早报-20250704
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-04 02:39
纯碱现货:重碱河北交割库现货报价在1160左右,沙河库1200左右 纯碱产业:工厂库存累积,交割库存去库,整体微幅去库 | | | | | | 玻璃纯碱早报 | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/7/4 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | 2025/6/26 | | 2025/7/2 | 2025/7/3 | | 周度变化 日度变化 | | 2025/6/26 | 2025/7/2 | 2025/7/3 | | 周度变化 日度变化 | | 沙河安全 | 1128.0 5mm大 板 | 1138.0 | 1138.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | FG09合约 | 1016.0 | 1052.0 | 1039.0 | 23.0 | -13.0 | | 沙河长城 | 1126.0 5mm大板 | 1121.0 | 1138.0 | 12.0 | 17.0 | FG01合约 | 1073.0 | 1139.0 | 1128. ...
玻璃纯碱早报-20250702
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-02 01:20
| 乖 亦安期货 | | --- | 纯碱现货:重碱河北交割库现货报价在1150左右,沙河库1190左右 纯碱产业:- 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 河北鑫利4.8mm(折5mm) 2022 2023 2024 2025 (600) (400) (200) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 华北玻璃生产利润(气) 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1117 1138 1117 980 900 980 1019 1065 900 950 1000 1050 1100 1150 沙河德金 沙河安全 沙河低价 湖北低价 07合约 09合约 11合约 01合约 玻璃价格结构 今日(7/1) 昨日(6/30) 一周前(6/24) 一月前(6/3) (500) 0 500 1,000 1,500 华南玻璃利润(气) 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 玻璃:河北低价大板 20 ...
玻璃纯碱早报-20250701
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-01 04:49
玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/7/1 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | 2025/6/23 | 2025/6/27 | 2025/6/30 | | 周度变化 日度变化 | | 2025/6/23 | 2025/6/27 | 2025/6/30 | | 周度变化 日度变化 | | 沙河安全 | 1128.0 | 1128.0 | 1128.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | FG09合约 | 1007.0 | 1019.0 | 1006.0 | -1.0 | -13.0 | | 5mm大 板 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 沙河长城 | 1126.0 | 1126.0 | 1126.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | FG01合约 | 1062.0 | 1077.0 | 1085.0 | 23.0 | 8.0 | | 5mm大板 | | | | | | | ...
中辉期货原油日报-20250630
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-06-30 06:15
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Weak [1] - LPG: Weak [1] - L: Bearish consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1] - PVC: Bearish consolidation [1] - PX: Bullish [1] - PTA/PR: Short - term bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bearish [1] - Glass: Weak rebound [2] - Soda ash: Range - bound rebound [2] - Caustic soda: Range - bound rebound [2] - Methanol: Short - term bullish [2] - Urea: Cautiously long [2] - Asphalt: Weak [2] Group 2: Report's Core Views - Crude oil: Oil prices return to fundamental pricing. With the consumption peak season and increasing supply, oil prices are in a consolidation phase. In the long - term, there is an oversupply situation, and prices are expected to fluctuate between $60 - 70 per barrel. In the short - term, prices are weakly oscillating. [1][4] - LPG: Geopolitical tensions ease, the cost side declines, and LPG is under pressure. [1][5] - L: Transaction slows down, inventory pressure in the upper and middle reaches eases, the cost side of crude oil weakens, and it is recommended to go short on rebounds. [1][9] - PP: Warehouse receipts decrease, the parking ratio rises, the cost side of crude oil and methanol falls, and it is advisable to go short on rebounds. [1][12] - PVC: Calcium carbide prices rise, social inventory increases, factory inventory decreases, and it is recommended to go short on rebounds. [1][15] - PX: Domestic and foreign PX device loads are operating at a high level, and there are expectations of both supply and demand increases. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long at low prices. [1][17] - PTA/PR: Recently, there are many maintenance devices. Later, with the resumption of production and new capacity addition, supply pressure is expected to increase. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go short at high prices. [1][20] - Ethylene glycol: The device load increases, the arrival volume is expected to rise, demand is expected to weaken, and it is recommended to look for high - level short - selling opportunities. [1][23] - Glass: Supported by domestic macro - policies, the supply side slightly decreases, and the price has a weak rebound. [2][26] - Soda ash: The weekly operating rate and production decline, and there is a range - bound rebound, but high supply and inventory limit the upside. [2][29] - Caustic soda: There is an expectation of inventory reduction through maintenance, and there is a weak rebound at a low level. [2][32] - Methanol: The port has a high basis, but there is a negative feedback on MTO demand. It is short - term bullish. [2][33] - Urea: The supply pressure is still large, but there are expectations for agricultural demand peak season and exports. It is recommended to be cautiously long. [2] - Asphalt: Geopolitical tensions ease, the cost side of crude oil falls, and it is recommended to go short with a light position. [2] Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude oil - **Market review**: On June 27, international oil prices were weakly oscillating. WTI rose 0.43%, Brent rose 0.16%, and SC fell 0.63%. [3] - **Basic logic**: After the US participated in the Israel - Iran conflict on June 23, geopolitical risks eased, and oil prices returned to fundamental pricing. OPEC+ is rumored to increase production by 415,000 barrels per day in August. In terms of supply, Guyana's oil production increased from 611,000 barrels per day in April to 667,000 barrels per day in May. In terms of demand, the global crude oil demand growth rate in 2025 is 1.29 million barrels per day, lower than 1.3 million barrels per day in May. In terms of inventory, as of the week ending June 20, US crude oil inventory decreased by 5.8 million barrels, strategic crude oil reserve increased by 200,000 barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 2.1 million barrels, and distillate oil inventory decreased by 4.1 million barrels. [4] - **Strategy recommendation**: In the long - term, due to the tariff war, the impact of new energy, and OPEC+ being in an expansion cycle, there is an oversupply of crude oil, and the price is expected to fluctuate between $60 - 70 per barrel. In the short - term, with the decline of geopolitical risks, oil prices return to supply - demand fundamental pricing, and it is recommended to go short with a light position and buy call options for protection. SC is expected to be in the range of [490 - 510]. [4] LPG - **Market review**: On June 27, the PG main contract closed at 4,256 yuan/ton, down 0.21% month - on - month. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China remained unchanged. [5] - **Basic logic**: Recently, geopolitical risks have declined, the cost side of oil prices has adjusted after squeezing out geopolitical premiums, and LPG has oscillated following the cost side. The PDH device profit decreased by 25 yuan/ton, and the alkylation device profit increased by 25 yuan/ton. The supply of LPG increased, and the demand of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil increased. The refinery inventory and port inventory increased. [6] - **Strategy recommendation**: In the long - term, after the release of geopolitical risks, from the perspective of supply and demand, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the center is expected to continue to decline. It is recommended to go short with a light position or buy put options. PG is expected to be in the range of [4,170 - 4,300]. [7] L - **Market review**: On June 27, the prices of L contracts increased to varying degrees, and the main contract position increased by 2.0%. The spot prices of LL and HD decreased slightly, and the import and production profits changed. The social inventory of PE decreased significantly. [9] - **Basic logic**: With the easing of the situation in the Middle East, the international crude oil price has fallen, and the cost support for polyethylene has weakened. Some previously maintained devices have restarted, and the supply is expected to increase. It is currently the off - season for demand, and the price support is limited. [9] - **Strategy recommendation**: It is recommended to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the price trends of crude oil and coal and the progress of new capacity addition. [10] PP - **Market review**: On June 27, the prices of PP contracts decreased slightly, and the main contract position decreased by 1.0%. The spot prices of PP were mostly stable, and the production and import profits changed. The enterprise and trade inventory of PP decreased. [12] - **Basic logic**: The decline in cost has dampened market sentiment, and the trading atmosphere is weak. The supply side has increased device maintenance, but in the off - season, downstream factories mostly purchase on demand, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been significantly alleviated. [12] - **Strategy recommendation**: It is recommended to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the price trends of crude oil and coal and the progress of new capacity addition. [13] PVC - **Market review**: The PVC market is affected by geopolitical conflicts, with the spot supply - demand fundamentals being poor, and the market center remains weak. [15] - **Basic logic**: Calcium carbide prices have risen, social inventory has increased, and factory inventory has decreased. Some device maintenance is expected to end this week, and new maintenance is planned at the end of the month, with production expected to decline. It is the domestic off - season for demand, but exports still have support. There are plans to put into production three sets of devices in the future, and the supply side is under pressure. [15] - **Strategy recommendation**: It is recommended to go short on rebounds and pay attention to the pressure level at integer points. V is expected to be in the range of [4,850 - 5,000]. [15] PX - **Market review**: On June 27, the spot price of PX in East China was 7,145 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month), and the PX09 contract closed at 6,752 (+30) yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 month spread was 206 (+8) yuan/ton, and the basis narrowed. [16] - **Basic logic**: PX profits have continued to improve, and domestic and foreign device loads are operating at a high level. The demand side is expected to improve with the resumption of PTA device production and new capacity addition. The inventory has decreased but is still at a relatively high level in the same period of the past five years. [17] - **Strategy recommendation**: PX is expected to be in the range of [6,760 - 6,950]. [18] PTA - **Market review**: On June 27, the spot price of PTA in East China was 5,025 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4,778 (+8) yuan/ton. The TA9 - 1 month spread was 172 (-2) yuan/ton, and the East China basis was 247 (-8) yuan/ton. [19] - **Basic logic**: Recently, there are many PTA maintenance devices. Later, with the resumption of production and new capacity addition, supply pressure is expected to increase. Downstream polyester production reduction and terminal weaving operating load continue to decline. Inventory is continuously decreasing, processing fees are high, and the basis is strong. [20] - **Strategy recommendation**: TA is expected to be in the range of [4,780 - 4,910]. [21] Ethylene glycol - **Market review**: On June 27, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,340 (-20) yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4,271 (-22) yuan/ton. The EG9 - 1 month spread was -43 (-9) yuan/ton, and the East China basis was 69 (+2) yuan/ton. [22] - **Basic logic**: Recently, the device load has increased, and although the arrival volume is currently low, it is expected to rise. The demand side is expected to weaken, and the inventory is decreasing but the expectation is narrowing. [23] - **Strategy recommendation**: EG is expected to be in the range of [4,220 - 4,310]. [24] Glass - **Market review**: The spot market price quotes are stable, the price has a weak rebound, the basis narrows, and the number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged. [25] - **Basic logic**: Supported by domestic macro - policies, the market risk preference has recovered. The glass supply has increased and decreased simultaneously this week, and the overall production remains at a low - level fluctuation. The coal - based production still has profits, and it is difficult to trigger large - scale cold repairs. The fuel price has increased, which has a certain boost to the glass price. [26] - **Strategy recommendation**: FG is expected to be in the range of [1,010 - 1,030], with the 5 - day moving average providing weak support. [26] Soda ash - **Market review**: The spot price of heavy soda ash has been raised, the price has stabilized, the main contract basis has narrowed, the number of warehouse receipts has increased, and the number of forecasts has increased. [28] - **Basic logic**: Recently, some soda ash devices have reduced their loads, and the overall supply has slightly decreased. However, the industry's operating rate is still at a high level, and the pressure of oversupply in the later period remains. The terminal consumption of soda ash is mediocre, and the glass price is consolidating at a low level, providing general support to the upstream. The manufacturer's inventory continues to accumulate. [29] - **Strategy recommendation**: SA is expected to be in the range of [1,185 - 1,220], with a range - bound rebound. [29] Caustic soda - **Market review**: The spot price of caustic soda remains stable, the price has a weak rebound at a low level, the basis has weakened, and the number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged. [31] - **Basic logic**: On the supply side, due to good chlor - alkali profits, most upstream devices maintain high - load production, and there is an expectation of new capacity addition from June to July. On the demand side, the downstream alumina production has slightly declined, and non - aluminum demand is still weak. The cost support has shifted downwards, and the inventory of liquid caustic soda enterprises has increased. [32] - **Strategy recommendation**: Pay attention to the weak rebound driven by inventory reduction through maintenance. [32] Methanol - **Market review**: On June 27, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,638 (+19) yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract closed at 2,393 (-24) yuan/ton. The East China basis was 245 (+43) yuan/ton, the port basis was 427 (+79) yuan/ton, the MA9 - 1 month spread was -26 (-10) yuan/ton, and the China - Southeast Asia methanol re - export profit increased to 56 (-4) US dollars/ton. [33] - **Basic logic**: The overall operating load of methanol has increased, and the arrival volume in July may be lower than expected. The demand side has shown negative feedback, and the enterprise inventory has decreased. The port basis is high, and there are still geopolitical military conflict risks. [2] - **Strategy recommendation**: It is short - term bullish. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities for the 09 contract and look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract. MA is expected to be in the range of [2,380 - 2,460]. [2] Urea - **Basic logic**: Recently, the urea maintenance intensity has increased, and the daily production has decreased briefly. However, in early July, the device is expected to resume production, and the supply pressure remains large. The industrial demand is weak, and the agricultural demand peak season is approaching. The fertilizer export growth rate is relatively fast, and there is still cost support. [2] - **Strategy recommendation**: It is recommended to be cautiously long and pay attention to short - selling opportunities. UR is expected to be in the range of [1,710 - 1,760]. [2] Asphalt - **Basic logic**: Geopolitical tensions have eased, the cost side of crude oil has fallen significantly, the supply has increased, and the inventory has accumulated. The demand shows a pattern of "strong in the north and weak in the south". [2] - **Strategy recommendation**: It is recommended to go short with a light position. BU is expected to be in the range of [3,500 - 3,600]. [2]
玻璃纯碱早报-20250630
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-30 04:07
| 玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | 2025/6/30 | | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/6/27 周度变化 日度变化 | 2025/6/20 | 2025/6/26 | | | | | 2025/6/20 | 2025/6/26 | | 2025/6/27 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 沙河安全 5mm大 板 | 1117.0 | 1128.0 | 1128.0 | 11.0 | 0.0 | FG09合约 | 1007.0 | 1016.0 | 1019.0 | 12.0 | 3.0 | | 沙河长城 5mm大板 | 1104.0 | 1126.0 | 1126.0 | 22.0 | 0.0 | FG01合约 | 1065.0 | 1073.0 | 1077.0 | 12.0 | 4.0 | | 沙河5mm大 板低价 | ...
能源化工玻璃纯碱周度报告-20250629
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-29 09:48
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core Views - Glass: The medium - term outlook is a sideways market. Short - term spot trading is stable with a slight rebound due to low valuation and peak - season expectations, but the Hubei warehouse receipt pricing and high inventory limit upward potential. The long - term bullish factors are policy support for real estate, low spot prices, long - term losses of manufacturers, and peak - season expectations for the 09 contract. The bearish factors are the lack of substantial improvement in the real estate market and high inventory pressure [6][7]. -纯碱: The rebound is hard to sustain, and the medium - term is a sideways market. The glass market pressure restricts the price increase of soda ash. Although short - term low valuation and potential cost - side stabilization may drive a rebound, the future will face greater delivery pressure. The core issues are high production and high inventory, and potential supporting factors need the improvement of the glass market [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass: Supply - side Situation Introduction - Cold - repaired production lines in 2025 have a total daily melting capacity of 10,530 tons/day [11]. - Ignited production lines in 2025 have a total daily melting capacity of 10,110 tons/day [12]. - Potential new ignition production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 13,700 tons/day [13]. - Potential old - line复产 production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 9,530 tons, mainly concentrated in South and Southwest China [14]. - Potential cold - repaired production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 5,700 tons/day [16]. - The glass industry's production reduction space in the first half of the year is limited, with the current in - production capacity at about 157,000 tons/day, a peak of 178,000 tons/day in 2021, and a recent low of 148,000 - 150,000 tons/day [18][19]. Glass: Price and Profit - This week's trading was basically stable, with most prices changing little. The price in Shahe is about 1,120 - 1,180 yuan/ton, in Hubei about 1,000 - 1,100 yuan/ton, and in East China about 1,220 - 1,360 yuan/ton [25][29]. - The futures rebounded, the basis was weak, and the monthly spread was stable. The near - month warehouse receipt factor limited the monthly spread's rebound space [31][34]. - The profit of coal - fired devices is 82 yuan/ton, natural - gas - fired devices is - 199 yuan/ton, and petroleum - coke - fired devices is - 101 yuan/ton, with actual profits varying by factory and region [39]. Glass: Inventory and Downstream Start - up - Recent trading was relatively stable, and inventory in most regions decreased slightly. The regional spread in East China shrank as prices declined [42][46]. Photovoltaic Glass: Price, Profit, Capacity, and Inventory - Prices declined, recent order follow - up decreased, glass manufacturers' shipments were average, and inventory continued to increase. The mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels is 10.5 - 11.5 yuan/square meter, down 6.38% month - on - month, and the 3.2mm coated is 18.5 - 19.5 yuan/square meter, down 3.80% month - on - month [49][51]. - As the market weakens, it may enter a production - reduction cycle again. The actual capacity as of mid - June is about 98,000 tons/day, and the sample inventory days are about 32.38 days, up 6.36% month - on - month [52][57]. Soda Ash: Supply and Maintenance - Soda ash supply has reached a peak, and recent maintenance has increased slightly. The current capacity utilization rate is 82.82% (last week was 86.5%), and the current weekly output of heavy soda ash is 392,000 tons. The inventory is about 1.767 million tons, with 805,000 tons of light soda ash and 962,000 tons of heavy soda ash [62][64][70]. Soda Ash: Price and Profit - The nominal prices in Shahe and Hubei are about 1,200 - 1,300 yuan/ton, and this week's prices changed little. The near - month pressure is high due to delivery and trade pressure, mainly because of the weak glass market and high soda ash production. The profit of the joint - alkali method in East China (excluding Shandong) is 26 yuan/ton, and the ammonia - alkali method in North China is - 20.8 yuan/ton [74][76][84].
广发期货《特殊商品》日报-20250627
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-27 11:39
x产业期现目报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年6月27日 现货价格及基差 品种 6月26日 6月25日 涨跌 涨跌幅 单位 云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF):上海 13850 13750 100 0.73% 全乳基差(切换至2509合约) -190 -20 -170 -850.00% 元/吨 泰标混合胶报价 13700 13600 100 0.74% 非标价差 -340 -170 -170 -100.00% 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 46.95 47.20 -0.25 -0.53% 泰铢/公斤 胶水:国际市场:FOB中间价 57.50 -0.25 57.25 -0.43% 天然橡胶:胶块:西双版纳州 12600 12600 0 0.00% 13200 0 天然橡胶:胶水:西双版纳州 13200 0.00% 元/吨 原料:市场主流价:海南 12400 12400 0 0.00% 外胶原料:市场主流价:海南 9000 9000 0.00 0.00% 合约 6月26日 6月25日 涨跌 涨跌幅 单位 9-1价差 -845 -850 5 0.59% 1-5价差 -25 -5 -20.00 ...
《特殊商品》日报-20250627
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-27 02:03
x产业期现目报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年6月27日 现货价格及基差 品种 6月26日 6月25日 涨跌 涨跌幅 单位 云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF):上海 13850 13750 100 0.73% 全乳基差(切换至2509合约) -190 -20 -170 -850.00% 元/吨 泰标混合胶报价 13700 13600 100 0.74% 非标价差 -340 -170 -170 -100.00% 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 46.95 47.20 -0.25 -0.53% 泰铢/公斤 胶水:国际市场:FOB中间价 57.50 -0.25 57.25 -0.43% 天然橡胶:胶块:西双版纳州 12600 12600 0 0.00% 13200 0 天然橡胶:胶水:西双版纳州 13200 0.00% 元/吨 原料:市场主流价:海南 12400 12400 0 0.00% 外胶原料:市场主流价:海南 9000 9000 0.00 0.00% 合约 6月26日 6月25日 涨跌 涨跌幅 单位 9-1价差 -845 -850 5 0.59% 1-5价差 -25 -5 -20.00 ...
瑞达期货纯碱玻璃产业日报-20250626
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-26 08:56
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Soda Ash**: Supply is expected to remain ample, demand will contract, and prices will continue to face pressure. The basis of soda ash started to converge this week, and basis convergence trading may continue. Futures are expected to decline at a slower pace. It is recommended to go short on the main soda ash contract [2]. - **Glass**: In the short - term, it is recommended to go long on dips, while in the medium - to long - term, the idea of going short on rallies should be maintained. The supply shows little change, and demand is expected to weaken further. The subsequent market trading is more about policy expectations, and the expected rebound height and strength will be limited [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Soda Ash**: The closing price of the main contract is 1180 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan from the previous period. The open interest of the main contract is 1,529,195 lots, down 32,209 lots. The net position of the top 20 is - 248,998 lots, up 58,828 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts are 3,693 tons, down 5 tons. The spread between the September and January contracts is 7 yuan, unchanged. The basis is 31 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2]. - **Glass**: The closing price of the main contract is 1016 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan from the previous period. The open interest of the main contract is 1,435,796 lots, down 9,579 lots. The net position of the top 20 is - 238,048 lots, up 7,865 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts are 877 tons, unchanged. The spread between the September and January contracts is - 49 yuan, up 2 yuan. The basis is 39 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2]. 现货市场 - **Soda Ash**: The price of North China heavy soda ash is 1197 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Central China heavy soda ash is 1325 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; East China light soda ash is 1260 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; Central China light soda ash is 1215 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Glass**: The price of Shahe glass sheets is 1056 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China glass sheets is 1070 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - **Soda Ash**: The operating rate of soda ash plants is 86.46%, up 1.56 percentage points. The inventory of soda ash enterprises is 175.59 tons, up 2.92 tons [2]. - **Glass**: The operating rate of float glass enterprises is 75.34%, down 0.08 percentage points. The in - production capacity is 15.54 million tons/year, down 0.02 million tons. The number of in - production production lines is 223, down 1. The inventory of glass enterprises is 69,887,000 weight boxes, up 202,000 weight boxes [2]. 下游情况 - The cumulative value of newly started area in the real estate sector is 231.8361 million square meters, up 53.4777 million square meters. The cumulative value of completed area is 183.8514 million square meters, up 27.3729 million square meters [2]. Industry News - Li Qiang attended the Business Community Representatives' Symposium at the 2025 Summer Davos Forum. - The Iranian Defense Minister arrived in China to participate in the SCO Defense Ministers' Meeting. - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority bought HK$9.42 billion in the market as the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate hit the weak - side convertibility undertaking. - XPeng Motors stated that the overseas market is tightening the import of zero - kilometer used cars, and XPeng does not adopt this export model. - He Lifeng pointed out during an inspection in Hebei that it is necessary to actively expand domestic demand and boost consumption to better promote high - quality economic development. - The first pension - themed corporate bond in China was successfully issued on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. - The third - batch funds for the replacement of consumer goods with new ones will be allocated in July [2].