5月铜市运行平稳，沪铜价格持续在78000元/吨附近窄幅震荡。伦铜与沪铜走势总体趋同，不过受库存下降及美元走弱 等因素提振，伦铜表现强于沪铜。 市场聚焦海外宏观数据 5月初，英美就关税贸易协议条款达成一致，市场对全球贸易环境改善的预期升温，美元指数随之小幅回升。5月 12 日，商务部发布中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明，宣布中美贸易谈判达成重要共识，这一进展促使市场风险偏好显著回 升，铜价受此提振一度走强。 此外，美联储5月议息会议维持暂缓降息节奏。美联储主席鲍威尔表示，高关税可能推升通胀并加剧就业市场压力，当 前货币政策处于适度限制性区间，潜在通胀前景可控，因此维持观望是明智选择。在美联储公布最新利率决议两天 后，多位美联储官员重申控制通胀预期的重要性，认为贸易政策的不确定性可能导致利率维持高位的时间更长。 综上所述，6月铜价将继续高位震荡。（作者单位：国元期货） 截至5月30日当周，进口铜精矿加工费报-43.56美元/吨，较4月末的- 42.61美元/吨进一步走低。自今年1月24日由正转负 后，进口铜精矿加工费持续震荡下行，反映出矿石供应压力持续凸显。废铜方面，今年以来从美国进口的废铜数量持 续减少，虽对日本废 ...

沪铜产业日报 2025/6/3 | | 撰写人：王福辉 从业资格证号：F03123381 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0019878 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 77,650.00 | +50.00↑ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 9,545.00 | -71.50↓ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | 160.00 | -20.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 182,260.00 | +9266.00↑ | | | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) | 2,975.00 | -5411.00↓ LME铜:库存(日,吨) | 148,450.00 | -1425.00↓ | | | 上期所库存:阴极铜(周,吨) | 105,791.00 | +7120.00↑ LME铜:注销仓单(日,吨) | 74,375.00 | -1550.00↓ | | | 上期所仓单:阴极铜(日,吨) ...

报告日期：2025 年 6 月 3 日星期二 铜消费环比增长较快，全球精炼铜供需过剩局面得到缓解。中国 铜冶炼厂粗炼费（TC）、精炼费（RC）维持低位，加工费持续为负， 使得铜冶炼企业生产积极性受到影响。中国精炼铜产量持续保持增长， 增速有所扩大。精废铜价差保持稳定。铜材产量环比下降，同比继续 保持增长。 COMEX 铜累库明显 沪铜库存小幅上升，LME铜库存持续去库，COMEX铜累库明显。综 合来看，铜价可能以震荡行情为主。 风险提示：美联储政策变化超预期，经济数据变化超预期，铜需求变 化超预期。 铜月报 宏观面不确定性增大，沪铜或震荡运行 内容提要 美国关税政策不断变化 证监许可【2012】1087 号 有色研究员：刘江 1—4月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额21170.2亿元，同 比增长1.4%。连续两月出现同比增长，扭转了前期同比下降趋势。美 国国际贸易法院此前做出禁止执行特朗普政府依据《国际紧急经济权 力法》对多国加征关税措施的行政令的裁决后，美国联邦巡回上诉法 院批准特朗普政府的请求，暂时搁置上述裁决。 精炼铜产量保持增长 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 期货从业资格证号：F0305 ...

智通财经APP获悉，据港交所6月1日披露，云南金浔资源股份有限公司(简称：金浔股份)向港交所主板 递交上市申请，华泰国际为独家保荐人。 招股书显示，金浔股份是优质阴极铜的领先制造商，根据弗若斯特沙利文的资料，截至2024年12月31 日，按在刚果(金)及赞比亚的产量计， 公司在中国阴极铜生产商中排名第五，并为两个司法权区中唯一 排名前五大的中国公 司。具体而言，公司于2024年在刚果(金)及赞比亚分别生产约16,000吨及5,000吨阴 极铜。在中国的民营企业中，按2024年的产量计，公司于刚果(金)排名第三，并于赞比亚排名第一。 公司的业务运营涵盖矿石加工、冶炼、铜产品销售及有色金属贸易。铜矿石加工及冶炼主要由公司分别 位于赞比亚及刚果(金)的当地生产设施进行。截至最后实际可行日期，除位于中国的在建钴加工厂外， 公司有四处生产设施，包括位于赞比亚的两家铜冶炼厂及一家铜精矿浮选厂，以及位于刚果(金)的一家 铜冶炼厂。公司的有色金属贸易业务主要通过公司位于新加坡及中国的附属公司开展。于往绩记录期 间，公司的收入来自于(i)生产及销售阴极铜，(ii)生产及销售铜精矿，及(iii)有色金属产品贸易。 公司的核心业务 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The copper market is affected by repeated tariff policies and market sentiment is weak. The copper price is under pressure due to cooling demand, but the smelting end is tight and the macro - environment is mixed, so the copper market is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Attention should be paid to whether the US economic data tonight will bring changes in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper opened high and closed slightly lower today. The US federal court stopped most of Trump's tariffs, but the US appellate court restored them. The market is numb to the repeated tariff policies. The US PCE price index will be announced tonight. The supply is expected to be tight. As of May 23, the TC/RC fees are still negative but the decline has slowed. The domestic refined copper production is at a high level and the supply tension has not been realized. The downstream demand is cooling and the copper price is under pressure, but the copper market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Opened low, moved low, and fluctuated to close down. The closing price was 77,600. The long positions of the top 20 were 113,430 lots, a decrease of 1,275 lots; the short positions were 119,931 lots, an increase of 137 lots. Spot: The spot premium in East China was 165 yuan/ton, and in South China was 15 yuan/ton. On May 29, 2025, the LME official price was $9,602/ton, and the spot premium was $39.5/ton [4] Supply Side - As of May 23, the spot TC was -$44.30/ dry ton, and the spot RC was -4.44 cents/lb [6] Fundamental Tracking - SHFE copper inventory was 34,100 tons, an increase of 1,963 tons from the previous period. As of May 29, the Shanghai bonded - area copper inventory was 52,000 tons, a decrease of 1,900 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 152,400 tons, a slight decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 180,500 short tons, an increase of 27,900 short tons from the previous period [9]

沪铜日评20250530:国内铜冶炼厂6月检修产能或环减,国内电解铜社会库存量环比减少 | | 变量名称 | 2025-05-29 | 2025-05-28 | 2025-05-21 | 较昨日变动 | 近期走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铜期货活跃合约 | 收盘价 | 78130 | 77870 | 78100 | 260.00 | | | | 成交量(手) | 80153 | 73407 | 71129 | 6, 746. 00 | | | | 持仓量(手) | 174757 | 169462 | 163320 | 5, 295.00 | | | | 库存(吨) | 32165 | 34861 | 41218 | -2, 696. 00 | | | 沪铜基差或现货升贴水 | SMM 1#电解铜平均价 | 78485 | 78510 | 78460 | -25.00 | | | | 沪铜基差 | 355 | 640 | 360 | -285.00 | | | (现货与期货) | 广州电解铜现货开贴水 | 65 | 120 | 185 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper futures market shows an oscillating trend with increasing positions, strong basis, and a slightly bearish sentiment in the options market. Fundamentally, the supply of raw materials for domestic smelters remains stable in the short - term, and the overall supply is expected to increase steadily. The demand from downstream copper processing enterprises is gradually weakening, leading to a slight accumulation of industrial inventory. The spot premium gradually converges, and downstream restocking provides some support for copper prices. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows a widening green column near the 0 - axis. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with light positions, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 77,870 yuan/ton, down 340 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 9,629 dollars/ton, up 32.5 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is 220 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the position of the main contract is 169,462 lots, up 42,378 lots. The top 20 positions in Shanghai copper futures are 11,510 lots, up 3,428 lots. The LME copper inventory is 162,150 tons, down 2,575 tons; the SHFE cathode copper inventory is 98,671 tons, down 9,471 tons; the SHFE cathode copper warrant is 34,861 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 78,510 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 78,565 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price is 109 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Yangshan copper average premium is 96 dollars/ton, down 8.5 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract is 640 yuan/ton, up 335 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is 40.08 dollars/ton, up 8.94 dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 292.44 million tons, up 53.13 million tons. The copper smelter's rough smelting fee (TC) is - 44.28 dollars/kiloton, down 1.23 dollars. The copper concentrate prices in Jiangxi and Yunnan are 68,840 yuan/metal ton and 69,540 yuan/metal ton respectively, unchanged. The southern and northern processing fees for blister copper are 700 yuan/ton and 750 yuan/ton respectively, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 125.40 million tons, up 0.60 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000 tons, down 30,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The prices of 1 bright copper wire and 2 copper in Shanghai are 55,390 yuan/ton and 66,950 yuan/ton respectively, down 100 yuan and 50 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid from Jiangxi Copper is 540 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 208.10 million tons, down 4.42 million tons. The cumulative grid infrastructure investment is 1,408.16 billion yuan, up 451.95 billion yuan. The cumulative real estate development investment is 27,729.57 billion yuan, up 7,825.40 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,167,000,000 pieces, down 30,199,900 pieces [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 9.42%, up 0.16 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 23.69%, down 0.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 12.05%, down 0.0099 percentage points; the at - the - money option call - put ratio is 0.83, down 0.0099 [2] 3.7 Industry News - In April, the profits of China's industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 3% year - on - year, 0.4 percentage points faster than in March. The profits of new - energy industries such as equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing grew rapidly. The profits of intelligent vehicle - mounted equipment manufacturing and intelligent unmanned aerial vehicle manufacturing industries increased by 177.4% and 167.9% respectively. China's key - city real estate market is generally bottoming out and stabilizing. From January to April, the transaction volume of new and second - hand houses increased both year - on - year and month - on - month. The improvement - oriented demand has become an important support for the new - house market. Many car companies have launched price - cut promotions, compressing the profit margins of upstream enterprises to 10% and extending the payment period to 120 days. In May, the US consumer confidence index rose significantly from 85.7 in April to 98. The US March FHFA housing price index decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, and the S&P/CS 20 - city unadjusted housing price index increased by 4.1% year - on - year. The European Central Bank should postpone further interest - rate cuts until at least September. The US and the EU are accelerating trade negotiations, and some countries' tariffs may be reduced to 10% or lower [2]

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Hengbang Smelting Co., Ltd. maintains an AA+ credit rating with a stable outlook, primarily due to its advantages in gold smelting, scale, technology, and strong shareholder support, despite facing challenges such as increased inventory, declining processing fees, and rising financial leverage [1][4][5]. Company Overview - The company focuses on gold smelting and has established a certain scale and technological advantage in the industry [1][4]. - It has diversified into non-ferrous metal smelting and the recovery of various valuable elements, which supplement its revenue and profit [1][4]. - The company benefits from strong support from its controlling shareholder, Jiangxi Copper Co., Ltd., which enhances its financial and strategic capabilities [4][7]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total assets of 247.24 billion yuan and total liabilities of 116.84 billion yuan, with a net profit of 4.66 billion yuan [3]. - The operating income for 2024 was 500.47 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase compared to previous years [3]. - The company's financial leverage has increased, with total debt rising to 86.57 billion yuan, indicating a weakening in debt repayment capacity [1][3]. Market Conditions - Gold prices have surged, with the average price in 2024 reaching 2,403.55 USD/ounce, a year-on-year increase of 22.97% [5]. - The domestic gold price also rose significantly, with a year-end price of 616.68 yuan/gram, up 28.30% from the beginning of the year [5]. - The copper market is experiencing fluctuations, with processing fees declining, which may impact the profitability of related enterprises [6][14]. Operational Challenges - The company has faced challenges such as increased inventory levels due to expanded operations and rising capital expenditures [1][4]. - Safety incidents have led to temporary production halts, affecting the output of copper and sulfuric acid [13][14]. - The company is under scrutiny for safety management practices following a significant production safety incident [14]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on expanding its gold mining resources and enhancing its smelting capabilities through various ongoing projects [9][17]. - It aims to strengthen its position in the high-end materials manufacturing sector by leveraging its existing resources [9][17]. - The company is also working on integrating its operations with its controlling shareholder to avoid competition and enhance resource control [10][17].

Group 1: Mining and Resource Management - The company invested CNY 0.65 billion in mineral exploration activities in 2024, resulting in an additional inferred copper resource of 91,800 tons, achieving the annual target for four consecutive years [1] - The company is actively seeking quality copper resource projects while managing existing mines and smelting plants [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company produced 348,900 tons of cathode copper, a year-on-year increase of 48.15%, and 5.80 tons of gold, a year-on-year increase of 95.63% [2] - The total assets at the end of Q1 2025 amounted to CNY 49.256 billion, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 62.39% [2] - The company achieved an operating revenue of CNY 37.754 billion in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 19.71%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 5.60 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23.97% [2] Group 3: Corporate Governance and Competition - The company is addressing competition issues with major shareholders through management delegation, asset restructuring, and business integration [3] - As of May 13, 2025, the company is planning to issue shares to acquire 40% of Liangshan Mining Co., Ltd. from its parent company [3][7] Group 4: Risk Management and Futures - The company employs hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with raw material prices and foreign exchange fluctuations [5] - The company has implemented measures to manage potential asset impairments in accordance with accounting standards [8] Group 5: Technological Advancements - The company is focusing on digital transformation to enhance production efficiency and reduce costs, with significant progress in smart factory projects [9][10] - AI technologies are being integrated into operations to improve safety and reduce downtime in mining activities [10]

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing downward pressure due to multiple factors, including monetary policy changes, supply chain dynamics, and weakening demand [1] Supply Side - As of May 19, the current treatment charge (TC) is -43.03 USD/thousand tons, and the current refining charge (RC) is -4.30 cents/pound, indicating an expansion of negative processing fees [1] - Significant amounts of scrap copper are expected to continue entering the domestic market [1] - In April 2025, China imported 300,200 tons of refined copper, a year-on-year decrease of 1.83%, while exports reached 53,100 tons, a year-on-year increase of 216.38% [1] Inventory - The Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventory rebounded from low levels during the week, while U.S. copper inventories increased significantly [1] Demand Side - Downstream demand is showing marginal weakness, with social inventory rebounding and terminal momentum weakening [1] - As of March 2025, apparent consumption of electrolytic copper was 1,372,400 tons, an increase of 93,800 tons, or 7.34% [1] - May marks the beginning of the demand off-season, with expected reductions in apparent consumption [1] - Cumulative sales of passenger vehicles from January to April 2025 reached 6.872 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.9% [1] Market Outlook - Overall market expectations are uncertain, with copper prices under pressure due to weakening demand fundamentals, low social inventory, and tight supply expectations [1] - Despite domestic policy measures providing some support, the market remains in a state of strong expectations but weak realities [1] - Continuous monitoring of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut probabilities and U.S.-China tariff policies is necessary [1]