News Summary Core Viewpoint - The copper market is facing supply disruptions due to incidents at major mines, leading to potential operational halts and fluctuations in prices, while demand remains stable but is influenced by macroeconomic uncertainties [1][2][3]. Group 1: Supply Disruptions - The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia is experiencing a landslide, which may force Freeport Indonesia to suspend operations at the Manyar smelter by the end of October due to a shortage of copper concentrate [1]. - Codelco's copper production significantly dropped to 93,400 tons in August due to an accident at the El Teniente mine, resulting in six fatalities and subsequent mine closure [2]. - Weekly copper concentrate processing fees for imports have shown a slight increase, reflecting instability in overseas mining operations [2]. Group 2: Demand and Market Conditions - Recent data indicates a decrease in operating rates for copper cable and brass rod manufacturers, primarily due to the National Day holiday in China [2]. - Strong export data from China in September, along with ongoing expansion in domestic demand and manufacturing, has improved industrial profits [3]. - The global supply concerns are expected to lead to a continued rebound in copper prices, despite low social inventory levels [3].

Report Title - Nonferrous Metals Weekly - Copper [1] Report Date - October 14, 2025 [2] Core Viewpoint - The expected tight supply and demand of copper concentrates support copper prices. The Fed's expected interest rate cut and fiscal easing in many countries, along with production disruptions in overseas copper mines, are likely to drive up copper prices. However, concerns about the potential easing of Sino-US trade conflicts may disrupt the upward rhythm of Shanghai copper prices. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions when prices fall [3]. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Summary by Directory Part 1: Spread and Inventory Situation - **Spread Analysis**: - Shanghai copper basis is negative and within a reasonable range, and the monthly spread is positive and also within a reasonable range. It is recommended that investors temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities in Shanghai copper basis and monthly spreads [9]. - LME copper (0 - 3) contract spread is negative and within a reasonable range, (3 - 15) contract spread is positive and at a relatively high level. It is recommended that investors temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities in LME copper (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contract spreads [10]. - COMEX copper near - far month contract spread is negative and within a reasonable range; LME copper and Shanghai copper spread is negative and within a reasonable range, COMEX copper and Shanghai copper spread is positive and within a reasonable range, COMEX copper and LME copper spread is negative and within a reasonable range [12]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - China's electrolytic copper social inventory increased compared with last week; LME electrolytic copper inventory decreased compared with last week; COMEX copper inventory increased compared with last week [3][20]. - The closing of the import window may limit the import volume of domestic electrolytic copper, causing the inventory of electrolytic copper in China's bonded area to increase compared with last week [20]. - The ratio of non - commercial long - short positions in COMEX copper decreased month - on - month [21]. Part 2: Mid - upstream Supply Situation - **Copper Concentrate**: - China's port copper concentrate inventory increased compared with last week. The accident at Freeport's Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia may reduce domestic copper concentrate production and imports in October, with the China copper concentrate import index being negative and rising compared with last week [28][30]. - The positive domestic refined - scrap copper price difference may boost the economy of scrap copper. However, due to export restrictions in Europe and uncertainties in Sino - US tariff negotiations, domestic scrap copper production may increase in October while imports may decrease, leading to a tight supply - demand expectation [31][33]. - **Crude Copper and Anode Plate**: - Domestic crude copper production and imports in October may decrease month - on - month. The start - up rate of China's scrap - produced anode plate weekly capacity increased compared with last week, and the processing fee for anode plates increased [34][37][39]. - **Electrolytic Copper**: - Domestic electrolytic copper production in October may decrease month - on - month. Due to production cuts in Congo and Zambia and maintenance plans in Japan, domestic electrolytic copper imports in October may also decrease month - on - month [40][42]. Part 3: Downstream Demand Situation - **Copper Rod**: - The capacity utilization rate of domestic refined (recycled) copper rods decreased compared with last week. The processing fees for power and enameled wire - used refined copper rods in East China decreased, and the raw material and finished product inventories of refined and recycled copper rod enterprises decreased [46][48]. - **Copper Wire and Cable**: - The capacity utilization rate of China's copper wire and cable decreased compared with last week, and the raw material inventory decreased while the finished product inventory increased. The capacity utilization rate of copper wire and cable in October may increase month - on - month [59][61][66]. - **Copper Enameled Wire**: - The order volume and capacity utilization rate of China's copper enameled wire decreased compared with last week, and the raw material and finished product inventory days increased. The capacity utilization rate of copper enameled wire in October may decrease month - on - month [63][65][66]. - **Copper Plate and Strip**: - The capacity utilization rate and production of China's copper plate and strip decreased compared with last week, and the raw material and finished product inventory days increased. The capacity utilization rate of copper plate and strip in October may increase month - on - month [74][76][78]. - **Copper Tube**: - The capacity utilization rate of China's copper tube decreased compared with last week, and the raw material and finished product inventory days increased. The capacity utilization rate of copper tube in October may decrease month - on - month [80][81][87]. - **Brass Rod**: - The capacity utilization rate of China's brass rod decreased compared with last week, and the raw material and finished product inventory days decreased. The capacity utilization rate of brass rod in October may increase month - on - month [82][84][87]. - **Copper Foil**: - The AI - related HVLP ultra - low profile copper foil demand in the copper foil industry has increased significantly, but the capacity utilization rate of lithium - ion and electronic circuit copper foils in October may decrease or increase month - on - month [78].

Group 1 - Copper prices are expected to have upward momentum despite short-term adjustments, driven by tight raw material supply and anticipated supply-demand gaps in Q4 2023 and 2024 [1] - The U.S. monetary policy is shifting towards easing, with expectations of further rate cuts, which will lower the holding costs for copper [1] - Supply disruptions in major copper mines, such as the Grasberg mine in Indonesia and Codelco in Chile, are leading to significant production declines, impacting overall copper supply [1][2] Group 2 - The processing fees for copper concentrate are expected to remain weak, with potential reductions in production for smelting companies that rely on low self-owned mine ratios [2] - Global copper inventories have increased recently, but there are expectations for long-term consumption improvements driven by sectors like renewable energy and traditional industries [3] - The overall copper market is characterized by reduced supply and increasing demand, indicating a potential for inventory depletion in the coming quarters [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the copper pricing logic shifted from "dominated by Chinese demand" to a ternary structure of "capital pricing + resource politics + supply chain control", with the financial attribute of copper significantly enhanced. The copper price showed a trend of "first decline, then rise, and then fluctuate", and the fluctuation range increased significantly [3]. - The deepening of the Sino - US game reshaped the global copper resource flow, pricing mechanism, and trade pattern. The copper price center will be systematically raised due to the re - evaluation of strategic value, and the fluctuation will intensify due to the fierce game [3]. - In the fourth quarter, the copper market faces three key points: the path after the Fed's hawkish interest rate cut and the speculation of a US economic recession; the variables in the Sino - US game, especially whether the Sino - US tariff negotiation in November will be postponed again; and the re - balance of global copper supply and demand and the inflection point of global copper visible inventory destocking [3]. - In the short term, it is recommended to hold copper speculative long orders, set trailing stops, and be cautious about chasing high prices, mainly trying long on dips. Industrial customers should flexibly adjust the hedging ratio, lock in reasonable profits, and strictly manage positions. In the long term, copper is favored due to its status as an important strategic resource and a substitute for precious metals, as well as the tight supply of copper concentrates and the booming demand for green copper [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Review of the First Three - Quarter Market - In early January, due to Trump's weaker - than - expected tariff policy on China and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, Shanghai copper started to rebound from the bottom, breaking through the 76,000 - yuan mark [6]. - In February, the lower - than - expected copper inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival and increased overseas mine - end disturbances pushed Shanghai copper to break through the 77,000 - yuan mark [6]. - In March, Trump's escalating threat of imposing import tariffs on copper led to a rapid widening of the price difference between COMEX and LME copper, and Shanghai copper broke through the 80,000 - yuan psychological barrier [6]. - In April, after the implementation of the global tariff war and the exemption of copper tariffs, there was a sharp reversal in expectations, causing copper prices to plummet. Subsequently, with the easing of Sino - US relations, copper prices oscillated and recovered [7]. - In June, due to the reignition of the Middle East conflict and the continuous decline of LME copper inventory, copper prices increased against the seasonal trend [7]. - In July and August, Trump's repeated tariff policies on copper led to significant fluctuations in copper prices. In September, with the Fed's interest rate cut and the supply shortage expectation of copper concentrates, copper prices reached new highs for the year [8]. Chapter 2: Macroeconomic Analysis 2.1 US Reciprocal Tariff Era and Global Economic Slowdown - In the US reciprocal tariff era, Trump's unpredictable policies disrupted market confidence in the US and global economies, leading to a surge in market risk - aversion sentiment. WTO predicted a decline in global goods trade volume, and IMF predicted a slowdown in global economic GDP growth [11]. - Global major economies' inflation situations were differentiated, and central banks' monetary policies shifted from tightening to easing. Geopolitical risks increased significantly, and military use of copper might increase due to the global arms race [14][19]. 2.2 Trump's Copper Tariff (TACO) and Increased Policy Uncertainty - Trump listed copper as a "national security vital resource", and his copper tariff policies had a profound impact on the global copper market. If the 25% copper import tariff policy were implemented, it would distort the global copper trade supply path [21][22]. - The price difference between COMEX and LME copper increased significantly, stimulating cross - market arbitrage. Although the tariff on refined copper was unexpectedly exempted, Trump's tariff policies accelerated the regionalization of the copper supply chain and increased capital risk - aversion sentiment [23][33]. 2.3 US Employment Pressure and Attention to the Fed's Interest Rate Cut in October - US employment data was weak, and inflation showed signs of rising. The Fed cut interest rates in September, and the market expected further interest rate cuts in October and December. The impact of the Fed's monetary policy on copper was greater than that of the domestic central bank's policy [36][42][46]. 2.4 Economic Cycle Reincarnation and Copper at the Eve of a Historic Demand Boom - Globally, the economy was at the end of the sixth Kondratieff cycle and the fifth Juglar cycle. Copper, as an important raw material, was on the verge of a historic demand boom [47]. - Domestically, although there were signs of economic recovery, there were still drag factors such as the real - estate slump. Copper was sensitive to interest rates, exchange rates, and domestic and foreign monetary policies [50]. Chapter 3: Supply Analysis 3.1 Grasberg Mine Shutdown in Indonesia Aggravates the Copper Ore Supply - Demand Gap - Global copper ore supply faced challenges such as long - term insufficient capital expenditure, falling ore grades, and increased mining difficulties. The shutdown of major mines such as Grasberg in Indonesia and political protests at some mines led to a reduction in global copper ore supply [52][55]. 3.2 Deep Inversion of Smelter Processing Fees and Industry Calls for Anti - Involution - Global copper smelting capacity utilization remained high, but copper concentrate supply was short. Smelter processing fees were deeply inverted, and the industry called for anti - involution. The government issued relevant policies to support the development of the copper industry [59][60][64]. 3.3 High Refined Copper Output and Continued Pressure on Imports - In 2025, global smelting capacity was released at a high level, and domestic refined copper output reached a record high. However, due to factors such as high premiums of US and LME copper and the closure of the import window, domestic refined copper imports were weak, and exports increased [67]. 3.4 High Global Visible Inventory and Tight Non - US Inventory - Global copper visible inventory was at a historically high level, mainly concentrated in US COMEX warehouses, while non - US inventory was tight. High copper prices had an inhibitory effect on demand, and attention should be paid to the subsequent inventory inflection point [72][77]. Chapter 4: Demand Analysis 4.1 The Fourth Industrial Revolution Triggers a Surge in Electricity Demand, and Green Copper Demand Shines - The fourth industrial revolution, including the development of new energy and AI, led to a significant increase in electricity demand, which in turn stimulated copper demand. China's power investment maintained resilience, and overseas power markets were also booming [78][79][80]. 4.2 Real Estate in a Difficult Bottom - Grinding Phase and Low Market Confidence - The real - estate market was in a downturn, with falling prices, weak sales, and a large inventory of unsold properties. This had a negative impact on overall copper demand [86][88]. 4.3 The Impact of the Trade - in Policy and the Withdrawal of National Subsidies on the Home Appliance Industry - The home appliance industry's demand for copper maintained resilience, but with the withdrawal of national subsidies and reduced overseas replenishment demand, the industry's performance was expected to be high in the first half and low in the second half of the year [91][92]. 4.4 High - Growth of New Energy Vehicles and Booming Green Copper Demand - New energy vehicles had a high copper consumption rate, and global new energy vehicle copper consumption was expected to increase significantly in 2025, becoming an important incremental factor in copper demand [94][95]. 4.5 The Return of Speculative Forces and the Repetition of the 2024 Copper Price Rally - Speculative forces in the copper market became active again, and overseas speculative funds' actions had an impact on copper prices. China needed to enhance its position as a copper pricing center [98][104]. 4.6 Forecast of the 2025 Refined Copper Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Overall, the supply of overseas copper concentrates was tight, while domestic smelting capacity was operating at a high level. The supply - demand of refined copper shifted from a tight balance to a slight shortage, both domestically and globally [105].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - In the short - term, copper prices are mainly oscillating weakly due to the enhanced market expectation of an economic downturn caused by Sino - US trade conflicts, although the fundamentals still support copper prices in the medium - term as domestic demand expectations during the "Golden September and Silver October" period are rising while domestic production is expected to decline slightly [6]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Market Review - During the National Day holiday, LME copper rose about 5% compared to before the holiday, driven by macro factors such as a 32,000 - person drop in ADP employment data, which strengthened the market's expectation of two Fed rate cuts within the year, and supply - side factors like the shutdown of the Grasberg copper mine and the fermentation of copper mine disruptions. The Shanghai copper main contract rose 4% on the first trading day after the holiday but weakened slightly on the 10th, closing at 85,910 yuan/ton. However, on the Friday night session, copper prices dropped significantly due to Trump's mention of imposing a 100% tariff on China, and are currently at the level of 83,000 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Supply and Demand - Supply: The Grasberg mine's output in Q4 2025 is nearly zero, about 200,000 tons less than the original guidance, and its 2026 output may drop about 35% from the original plan. Codelco in Chile had a significant year - on - year decline in August output, BHP's copper mine production disruptions increased, and Teck Resources lowered the production target of its large - scale mines. China's refined copper production in September was 1.121 million tons, a 4.31% month - on - month decrease, and is expected to decline 3.43% month - on - month in October. The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association has proposed to strictly control the expansion of copper smelting capacity, and there may be a global copper mine supply gap in Q4 [4]. - Demand: After the holiday, the State Grid released some orders, and the resumption of work after the holiday is expected to further improve the downstream operating level, but high copper prices have a certain impact on market activity [4]. - Inventory: Global inventories have started to rise slightly. SMM expects an increase in imported and domestic copper supplies, and high copper prices will suppress downstream purchasing sentiment, so inventories are expected to increase this week [4]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Factors - On October 10th, the US announced a 100% tariff on China in response to China's export controls on rare earths and other related items and imposed export controls on all key software, which intensified market concerns about the global economic outlook and led to an increase in risk - aversion sentiment [5].

Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment score is 50, indicating a "neutral" stance [5][8] - Historical trends show that when sentiment is below or near 50, the market tends to receive support, while above 90, resistance is observed [8] Hot Themes Tracking Artificial Intelligence - Alibaba's CEO stated that large models are the next generation operating systems, with AI cloud being the next computing platform, potentially leading to only a few super cloud platforms globally [5] - Alibaba is investing 380 billion in AI infrastructure and plans to increase this investment [5] - Related stocks include Industrial Fulian (601138) and Zhongji Xuchuang (300308) [5] Non-ferrous Metals - The Grasberg mine in Indonesia has delayed reopening until mid-2026 due to landslides, raising concerns over copper supply and pushing international copper prices up [5] - Domestic copper smelting competition has led to low processing fees, prompting calls for self-discipline in production cuts, reinforcing supply contraction expectations [5] - Related stocks include Zijin Mining (601899) and Jiangxi Copper (600362) [5] Energy Storage - The domestic "New Energy Storage Special Action Plan" aims for 180 million kilowatts of installed capacity by 2027, attracting 250 billion in direct investment [5] - Policies are expected to raise project IRR to over 8%, shifting investment from "mandatory storage" to "proactive profit" [5] - Overseas orders in the first half of 2025 surged 220% year-on-year to 160 GWh, with battery cell production already experiencing price hikes [5] - Related stocks include CATL (300750) and Sungrow Power Supply (300274) [5]

Group 1 - The stock price of Yunnan Copper Co., Ltd. has experienced an abnormal fluctuation, with a cumulative increase of +20% over three consecutive trading days (September 30, October 9, and October 10, 2025) [2] - The company has confirmed that there are no corrections or supplements needed for previously disclosed information, and no significant undisclosed information has been found that could impact the stock price [3][4] - The company's production and operational conditions remain normal, with no significant changes in the internal or external business environment [3] Group 2 - The company is currently engaged in a share issuance to acquire assets and raise matching funds, with all related information disclosed in a timely manner [3] - The board of directors has confirmed that there are no undisclosed matters that should be reported according to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's listing rules [4] - The company emphasizes that it has not violated any fair disclosure regulations and has not engaged in any stock trading activities by major shareholders during the abnormal fluctuation period [5]

铜产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2025年10月12日 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 1 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铜：贸易风险显化，供应扰动增强，价格波动放大 强弱分析：偏弱，价格区间：80000-85000元/吨 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 VIX指数快速回升，表明市场不确定性增加 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 2021-01 2021-04 2021-07 2021-10 2022-01 2022-04 2022-07 2022-10 2023-01 2023-04 2023-07 2023-10 2024-01 2024-04 2024-07 2024-10 2025-01 2025-04 2025-07 2025-10 % 标准普尔500波动率指数(VIX) 铜精矿现货TC弱势，冶炼亏损 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation aims to address disorderly price competition and maintain a sound market price order, marking a shift in approach compared to previous efforts in 2005 and 2007 [1][2][3] Group 1: Key Features of the Announcement - The new governance approach combines proactive guidance and comprehensive supervision, moving away from solely punitive measures to a full-chain regulation process that includes cost reference, reminders, and enforcement [1] - The introduction of "industry average cost" as a reference point is intended to guide industry associations in evaluating and publishing average costs, providing a benchmark for reasonable pricing and helping to identify abnormally low prices [2] Group 2: Implications for Industries - The announcement signals that the goal is not to eliminate price competition but to protect innovation and product quality, preventing the phenomenon of "bad money driving out good" and ultimately promoting high-quality industry development [3] - The government positions itself as a rule-maker and maintainer rather than a direct price intervener, using the "industry average cost" as an informational tool to guide enterprises in making autonomous decisions and returning to fair competition [3] - As companies withdraw from disorderly price wars, improved profitability is expected to allow for greater investment in research and innovation, leading to higher quality and better value products and services for consumers in the long run [3]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co., Ltd. has experienced significant price fluctuations, with a cumulative deviation of +20% over three consecutive trading days, indicating abnormal trading activity [1] Company Summary - Tongling Nonferrous Metals announced that there is no need to correct or supplement previously disclosed information, and there are no undisclosed significant events affecting stock prices [1] - The company's production and operations are reported to be normal, with no major changes in the internal operating environment [1] Market Conditions - The market prices of the company's main products, including cathode copper and gold, have seen substantial increases recently [1] - The processing fees for copper concentrate are currently operating at low levels [1]