展望未来，报告预测，随着能源转型推进，电动汽车行业仍将是锂市场的主要驱动力，预计今年全球电 动汽车销量同比将增长23.9%，2026年将同比增长14.7%。另一方面，报告也指出，对中国制造的电动 汽车、电池和原材料征收关税可能会导致成本增加，从而减缓电动汽车的普及速度。 中化新网讯 近日，智利铜业委员会(COCHILCO)发布了《2025~2026年锂市场预测报告》。报告显示， 2025年全球锂供应量预计达144.3万吨(碳酸锂当量)，需求量预计达134万吨，供应过剩10.3万吨。预计 2026年锂需求和供应都将增长，供应过剩量预计达6万吨。 COCHILCO表示，由于供应过剩，锂价自2023年以来大幅下跌。尽管电动汽车电池行业的需求在提 升，但宏观经济和地缘政治的不确定性、美国电动汽车补贴中止以及非洲等新供应国崛起仍导致了供应 过剩。自中国赞格矿业于7月停止锂生产以来，锂价已开始上涨。报告预测，2026年亚洲碳酸锂到岸价 将达每吨1.0327万美元，氢氧化锂到岸价将达每吨1.092万美元，均高于8月27日的最高价。这一轮价格 上涨是否能持续，则取决于停产的时间和规模。 2024年，智利锂产量预计达到29.6 ...

2025 年 9 月 30 日 碳酸锂：关注矿证变化，节前建议轻仓操作 | | | 邵婉嫕 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | | | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 | | | | liuhongru@gtht.com | | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | | 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | | | | | | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | | | 2511合约（收盘价） | 73,920 | 1,040 | 500 | 1,240 | -4,220 | 10,820 | | | | 2511合约（成交量） | 465,591 | -15,429 | 68,946 | -17,199 | -339,994 | 400,435 | | | | 2511合约（持仓量） | 251,749 | 3,109 | -19 ...

同时，多家相关企业也明确表示，目前企业已按照相关要求提交报告，暂时没有接到停产通知，相关生 产节奏仍按照公司的原定计划来安排。 对此，期货日报记者了解到，报告提交工作正在如期推进，当地政府有关部门明确表示，当前并未发布 要求企业停产的相关通知。 期货日报网讯（记者 刘威魁）临近9月30日提交储量核实报告时间之际，市场再次传出"江西多家锂矿 生产企业即将停产"的消息。 ...

9月23日，2025中外知名企业四川行活动四川省战略性矿产资源矿业权出让区块集中推介会举行。推介 会集中介绍了26个拟出让区块情况，涉及油气、锂、铜、金等战略性矿产，均为四川优势矿种。 此次推介会以"激发市场活力、优化资源配置、促进矿业发展"为导向，邀请矿产资源产业链上下游知名 企业共85家，积极搭建矿业投资合作平台，助力新一轮找矿突破战略行动深入开展。 推介会上，四川省自然资源厅相关负责人介绍，"十四五"以来，全省累计出让矿业权372宗，实现出让 收益398亿元。其中，2023年出让54宗、成交价142.82亿元，创十年来最高水平；2024年出让111宗、成 交价133.64亿元，实现矿业权出让数量、收益"双百"突破。同时，四川厅积极统筹矿业权出让与产业发 展，推动资源跟着产业走、产业向着高端走。目前，锂电产业已形成原矿采选、基础锂盐、正负极材 料、锂电池全产业链，各环节产量规模均居全国前列。油气产业凭借资源优势和战略布局，成为我国能 源结构优化的重要支撑，已形成较完整的天然气产业链，涵盖勘探开发、管道运输、化工利用等领域。 ...

资料显示，天齐锂业股份有限公司位于四川省成都市天府新区红梁西一街166号,香港铜锣湾勿地臣街1 号时代广场2座31楼，成立日期1995年10月16日，上市日期2010年8月31日，公司主营业务涉及锂精矿产 品和锂化合物及其衍生物产品的生产和销售。主营业务收入构成为：锂化合物及衍生品50.54%，锂矿 49.25%，其他0.21%。 银华新能源新材料量化股票发起式A（005037）成立日期2017年9月15日，最新规模3.27亿。今年以来收 益41.89%，同类排名1042/4221；近一年收益62.81%，同类排名1098/3836；成立以来收益73.5%。 银华新能源新材料量化股票发起式A（005037）基金经理为张凯、杨腾、李宜璇。 9月29日，天齐锂业涨3.73%，截至发稿，报46.44元/股，成交40.14亿元，换手率5.92%，总市值762.18 亿元。天齐锂业股价已经连续4天上涨，区间累计涨幅8.45%。 从基金十大重仓股角度 数据显示，银华基金旗下1只基金重仓天齐锂业。银华新能源新材料量化股票发起式A（005037）二季 度持有股数34.32万股，占基金净值比例为2.21%，位居第六大重仓股。根 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: How Will the Balance Evolve under High Supply and Demand Elasticity after the Supply Shock? - Research Institute: Orient Futures Derivatives Research Institute - Date: September 2025 - Analyst: Chen Yixuan 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - In the short term, the lithium market presents a combination of strong reality and weak expectations, with limited de - stocking and a surplus pattern. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on price rallies and reverse spread opportunities for LC2511 - 2512. In the long term, although the static balance remains in surplus, the high - growth demand will ease the apparent inventory build - up pressure in 2026, and the trading strategy can gradually shift from shorting on rallies to buying on dips [61]. 3. Summary by Relevant Directory Q3 Market Review - Since the end of June, lithium prices have rebounded rapidly from the bottom to 90,000 yuan, then fluctuated after a spike. From late June to mid - July, demand expectation correction drove the price to stabilize and rebound; from mid - July to mid - August, supply - side risks led to a rapid price increase; since mid - August, after the market priced in the shutdown of Jianxiaowo, the price corrected to account for the increased supply stimulated by high prices [2][5]. Supply - Side Uncertainty - Since mid - July, mining license risks in Jiangxi and Qinghai have intensified. The shutdown of some projects raised concerns about domestic supply risks, and the expiration of Jianxiaowo's mining license in August triggered market sentiment. However, since late August, the resumption of previously shut - down projects has cooled market enthusiasm [6][8]. Supply Pressure and Inventory - High prices have accelerated the manifestation of supply pressure. After the price rebound, the output of spodumene processing increased rapidly, offsetting the reduction in mica supply. Since late August, the generation of warehouse receipts has accelerated. Currently, domestic ore inventory is still at a moderately high level, and imported ore flows in stably, with new projects expanding production capacity, so there is no significant constraint on lithium salt supply [9][11][12]. Lithium Salt Trade and Resource Output - In terms of lithium salt shipments, South American shipments are in line with capacity ramp - up expectations, and Indonesia has brought marginal increments. The regional premium has changed the trade flow of lithium salts. The revised global lithium resource supply in 2025 is expected to increase by 270,000 tons LCE year - on - year, and the impact of mining license disruptions is limited. In 2026, the project reserve is still sufficient, with an expected year - on - year increase of 300,000 tons LCE, but some mica capacity may face supply uncertainty [16][19][22]. Terminal Demand - In the power market, new - energy passenger vehicle sales in China, Europe, and the US from January to August increased by 36%, 28%, and 4% year - on - year respectively. The new - energy commercial vehicle market is a highlight, with sales in China from January to August increasing by 66% year - on - year. The domestic and overseas energy - storage markets have continuously exceeded expectations, with high growth in domestic large - scale energy - storage project bids and a significant increase in overseas exports [30][36][41]. Market Balance - In the short term, the market is in a de - stocking phase, but the de - stocking amplitude is limited. The fundamental situation supports prices in the short term but cannot drive prices up independently. In the long term, from 2025 to 2026, the global lithium resource market remains in surplus, but the apparent inventory build - up in 2026 may narrow, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio will decrease [48][51][55]. Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: Given the strong reality and weak expectations, limited de - stocking, and the expectation of project resumption, it is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on price rallies and reverse spread opportunities for LC2511 - 2512. Long - term: As the demand growth will ease the inventory build - up pressure in 2026, the trading strategy can gradually shift from shorting on rallies to buying on dips [61].

Report Title - Weekly Report on Lithium Carbonate [2] Report Date - September 29, 2025 [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The supply of lithium carbonate is affected by factors such as the suspension of the Ningde Jianxiawo mine for three months, the notice of re - examination of mining rights transfer received by production enterprises in Yichun and Qinghai, and the limited cost - reduction space of Australian mines. In August 2025, the domestic import of lithium concentrate decreased by 17.5% month - on - month, while the import of lithium carbonate increased by 57.8% month - on - month. Some manufacturers using imported lithium ore for production face cost inversion, while self - owned ore and salt lake enterprises have certain profit support, and lithium hydroxide manufacturers face greater cost pressure [5]. - In terms of demand, the overall production schedule in September increased month - on - month, with large battery cell manufacturers' production schedule increasing by 8% month - on - month. In August, the total output of power and other batteries in China increased by 4.4% month - on - month and 37.3% year - on - year, and the sales volume increased by 5.7% month - on - month and 45.6% year - on - year. The new energy vehicle market is expected to be supported by policies [6]. - This week, the inventory of lithium carbonate showed a slight accumulation. The factory inventory increased by 375 tons, the market inventory decreased by 1085 tons, and the futures inventory increased by 845 tons [6]. - Before a clear result on the lithium mining license issue in Jiangxi, the domestic supply - demand of lithium carbonate remains in a tight balance. The short - term price of lithium carbonate is expected to be supported, but the price is expected to continue to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to trade cautiously and pay attention to the progress of mining licenses in Yichun mines and the resumption of production of the Ningde Jianxiawo lithium mine [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Weekly Views Supply - side - Last week, the output of lithium carbonate increased by 344 tons to 21,469 tons week - on - week, and the output in August increased by 7.8% to 92,380 tons month - on - month. The Ningde Jianxiawo mine was confirmed to be shut down for three months, and production enterprises in Yichun and Qinghai received notices of re - examination of mining rights transfer [5]. - In the first quarter, Australian mines achieved cost control, and the further cost - reduction space is extremely limited. Most mainstream Australian mines have reduced their capital expenditure for fiscal year 2025 [5]. - In August 2025, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 619,000 tons, a 17.5% month - on - month decrease. The top three countries in terms of import volume were Australia, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria. The import of lithium concentrate from Australia decreased by 50.5% month - on - month, that from Zimbabwe increased by 83.9% month - on - month, that from Nigeria decreased by 9.5% month - on - month, and the import from Mali increased by 73,000 tons. The import of lithium carbonate in August was 21,847 tons, a 57.8% month - on - month increase, with 15,608 tons from Chile, accounting for 71% [5]. - The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate decreased week - on - week, and some manufacturers using imported lithium ore for lithium carbonate production faced cost inversion. Self - owned ore and salt lake enterprises had certain profit support, while lithium hydroxide manufacturers faced greater cost pressure [5]. Demand - side - The overall production schedule in September increased month - on - month, with large battery cell manufacturers' production schedule increasing by 8% month - on - month [6]. - In August, the total output of power and other batteries in China was 139.6 GWh, a 4.4% month - on - month increase and a 37.3% year - on - year increase. The total export of power and other batteries was 22.6 GWh, a 2.6% month - on - month decrease and a 23.9% year - on - year increase. The sales volume of power and other batteries was 134.5 GWh, a 5.7% month - on - month increase and a 45.6% year - on - year increase. The new energy vehicle market is expected to be supported by policies such as the trade - in policy and the extension of the new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption [6]. Inventory - This week, the inventory of lithium carbonate showed a slight accumulation. The factory inventory increased by 375 tons, the market inventory decreased by 1085 tons, and the futures inventory increased by 845 tons [6]. Strategy Suggestion - Before a clear result on the lithium mining license issue in Jiangxi, the domestic supply - demand of lithium carbonate remains in a tight balance. The short - term price of lithium carbonate is expected to be supported due to factors such as good terminal demand for energy storage, increased production schedules of large battery cell manufacturers in the peak season of September, continuous risks of mining licenses, continuous production increase of lithium extraction from ore under the background of profit repair, and the upward movement of the cost center [6]. - As the "930" approaches, there is still no conclusion on the supply disturbance problem in Yichun, Jiangxi caused by mining licenses. The downstream production schedule exceeds expectations, and the current production reduction situation at the mine end has limited impact on the overall supply. It is necessary to pay attention to the disturbance at the Yichun mine end. In the peak season, the downstream actively purchases lithium carbonate, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to trade cautiously and pay attention to the progress of mining licenses in Yichun mines and the resumption of production of the Ningde Jianxiawo lithium mine [6]. 2. Key Data Tracking - The report presents multiple data charts, including the spot含税均价 of lithium carbonate, weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate, weekly and monthly factory inventory of lithium carbonate, average price of lithium concentrate imports, production of different battery materials (such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, etc.), import volume of lithium spodumene, average price of lithium iron phosphate for power use, import volume of lithium carbonate, and market price of ternary materials 8 - series: NCA type [8][9][11]

碳酸锂周报 2025 年 9 月 29 日 警惕资源扰动风险 锂价震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 | 指标 | 2025/9/26 | 2025/9/19 | 变动量 | 变动幅度 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 进口锂原矿：1.3%-2.2% | 136 | 136 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 美元/吨 | | 进口锂精矿：5.5%-6% | 812 | 812 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 美元/吨 | | 国产锂精矿：5.5%-6% | 812 | 812 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 即期汇率：美元兑人民币 | 7.135 | 7.11 ...

供应端，自宁德时代（300750）枧下窝项目8月9日宣布停产以来，国内碳酸锂云母端来源产量明显走 弱，从高峰时期周产5000吨下降至2500吨，但后续随着宜春银锂检修完毕复产，周产回升至2800吨水 平。相关数据显示，枧下窝项目停产后，锂云母端的碳酸锂月度产量下降约9000吨。"这一变化，符合 市场预期，但锂辉石端带来的增量，使得供应端的总量不减反增。"据余烁介绍，当前，锂辉石端的碳 酸锂周度产量，已从7月份的9000吨升至13000吨，这不仅弥补了锂云母端的减量，还带来额外增量。在 这一趋势下，供应端的周度总产量也突破2万吨，创历史新高。 自8月份以来，碳酸锂行业已连续8周呈现去库态势。数据显示，9月26日当周碳酸锂的周度库存为13.68 万吨，较8月7日当周的14.24万吨，下降4%。 创元期货分析师余烁向期货日报记者表示，碳酸锂行业呈现连续去库态势，主要是因为在当前供需"双 旺"的市场格局下，需求端的增速更快。当前的去库态势，只是阶段性回调，并非行业回暖的信号。 需求端，余烁表示，今年8月份需求端各数据环比走强明显。其中，磷酸铁锂产量为31.6万吨，环比增 加9%；电池产量为160GWh，环比增加11% ...

Group 1 - The rapid development of the new energy vehicle and lithium battery industries in China has led to a significant demand for lithium carbonate, positioning it as a core raw material with immense market potential [1] - Chinese lithium mining companies are actively expanding into overseas markets to secure high-grade lithium resources through investments in foreign lithium mining enterprises [1][2] - The listing of lithium carbonate futures has provided a protective mechanism for Chinese lithium mining companies, enabling effective risk management and stabilization of operational expectations [1][4] Group 2 - The influx of capital into the lithium battery industry has resulted in an oversupply situation, causing lithium carbonate prices to drop sharply from a peak of 600,000 yuan per ton [2][4] - Companies engaged in international lithium ore trade are experiencing a shift from a "no sales worries" phase to a "difficulty in selling goods" phase due to changing supply-demand dynamics [2][3] - The use of lithium carbonate futures has allowed companies to lock in sales prices in advance, reducing risks associated with price fluctuations and enhancing market competitiveness [1][5] Group 3 - The transportation and processing cycles for lithium carbonate are lengthy, leading to significant losses for companies during price downturns [3][4] - A case study illustrates how a company utilized futures to hedge against price declines, successfully covering losses from inventory through strategic trading [4][5] - The growing influence of lithium carbonate futures is reshaping pricing dynamics in the African trade market, enhancing the bargaining power of Chinese companies [5][6] Group 4 - The "Assist Green to New" industry service plan initiated by the exchange aims to support the green low-carbon transition and enhance the ability of industries to utilize futures tools [10][11] - The collaboration between companies and futures service providers is crucial for developing tailored risk management strategies and improving operational efficiency [8][11] - The ongoing training and support provided by industry leaders are fostering a deeper understanding of futures markets among enterprises, leading to increased participation and confidence in risk management practices [6][8]