1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The provided text does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of lithium carbonate increased last week, with a production of 23,426 tons, a 3.70% week - on - week increase, and higher than the historical average. The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials also increased. In February 2026, the production of lithium carbonate was 83,090 physical tons, and the predicted production for the next month is 106,390 physical tons, a 28.04% month - on - month increase. The import volume in February was 21,800 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for the next month is 26,000 physical tons, a 19.27% month - on - month increase. The demand is expected to strengthen next month, and inventory may be depleted. The cost of 6% concentrate CIF decreased daily, and the demand - dominated situation weakened. The lithium carbonate 2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 136,800 - 147,680. The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate is 154,180 yuan/ton, with no daily change, resulting in a loss of 250 yuan/ton; the cost of purchasing lithium mica is 145,659 yuan/ton, also with no daily change, resulting in a profit of 6,289 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, and the production profit is negative, with low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 32,231 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation. [8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate was 23,426 tons, a 3.70% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 105,780 tons, a 5.22% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 18,019 tons, a 1.17% week - on - week increase. In February 2026, the production of lithium carbonate was 83,090 physical tons, and the predicted production for the next month is 106,390 physical tons, a 28.04% month - on - month increase. The import volume in February was 21,800 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for the next month is 26,000 physical tons, a 19.27% month - on - month increase. The demand is expected to strengthen next month, and inventory may be depleted. [8][9] - **Cost**: The cost of 6% concentrate CIF decreased daily, lower than the historical average. The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate is 154,180 yuan/ton, with no daily change, resulting in a loss of 250 yuan/ton; the cost of purchasing lithium mica is 145,659 yuan/ton, also with no daily change, resulting in a profit of 6,289 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, and the production profit is negative, with low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 32,231 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation. [9] - **Fundamentals**: Bullish. On March 19, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 152,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 9,900 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. The smelter inventory was 16,292 tons, a 6.77% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 45,647 tons, a 4.32% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average; other inventories were 37,020 tons, a 2.93% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average; the total inventory was 98,959 tons, a 0.41% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average. [9] - **Disk**: Bearish. The MA20 of the disk is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20. The net short position of the main contract decreased. [9] - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Bullish factors include the production cut plan of lithium mica manufacturers and the month - on - month decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile. Bearish factors include the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline. The main logic is the emotional shock caused by news under the tight supply - demand balance. [10][11][12] 3.2 Market Overview of Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The prices of various lithium - related products showed different degrees of change. For example, the price of spodumene (6%) decreased from 2,157 to 2,100 US dollars/ton, a 2.64% decrease; the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased from 155,500 to 152,500 yuan/ton, a 1.93% decrease. The registered warehouse receipts decreased from 35,769 to 34,740 lots, a 2.88% decrease. [15] - **Supply and Demand Data**: The supply - side data shows that the weekly operating rate was 73.46% with no change, and the monthly production of lithium carbonate decreased from 97,900 to 83,090 tons, a 15.13% decrease. The demand - side data shows that the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate decreased from 396,600 to 348,200 tons, a 12.20% decrease; the monthly export of lithium iron phosphate decreased from 7,720,595 to 4,028,745 kilograms, a 47.82% decrease. [18] 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price and Production**: The price of lithium ore (6% CIF) and the production of lithium ore mines in China showed different trends over time. The production of Chinese sample spodumene mines and domestic lithium mica had their own changing patterns from 2023 - 2026. [25] - **Import and Self - Sufficiency Rate**: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate showed fluctuations, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore also changed over time. [25] - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore from February 2025 to February 2026 showed different situations, with some months in short supply and some in surplus. [28][29] 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Operating Rate and Production**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium辉石, lithium mica, salt lake, recycling materials) and the monthly production of lithium carbonate (classified by grade and raw material) showed different trends over time. [32] - **Import and Recycling**: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries and the recycling volume of waste lithium batteries also had their own changing patterns. [32][35] - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate from February 2025 to February 2026 showed different situations, with some months in surplus and some in short supply. [38] 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Capacity Utilization and Production**: The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide and the monthly production of lithium hydroxide from different sources (causticization, smelting) showed different trends over time. [41] - **Export and Supply - Demand Balance**: The export volume of Chinese lithium hydroxide and the supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide from February 2025 to February 2026 showed different situations, with some months in surplus and some in short supply. [41][43] 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - **Cost and Profit of Different Raw Materials**: The cost and profit of purchasing spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and recycling different types of lithium - containing materials to produce lithium carbonate showed different trends over time. [46][48] - **Processing Cost and Profit**: The processing cost and profit of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, such as the processing cost of lithium mica concentrate and lithium辉石, and the profit of purifying industrial - grade lithium carbonate and carbonizing lithium hydroxide, also showed different trends. [46][48][51] 3.7 Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate, including smelter inventory, downstream inventory, and other inventories, showed different trends over time. [53] - **Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide, including downstream inventory and smelter inventory, also showed different trends over time. [53] 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - Power Battery - **Price and Production**: The price of batteries, the monthly production of power cells, the monthly loading volume of power batteries, the monthly shipment volume of power cells, and the export volume of lithium batteries showed different trends over time. [57] 3.9 Demand - Lithium Battery - Energy Storage - **Inventory and Production**: The inventory of lithium battery cells, the winning bid situation of energy storage, the operating rate of the energy storage battery industry, the monthly shipment volume of energy storage cells, and the monthly production volume of energy storage cells showed different trends over time. [59] 3.10 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price and Cost**: The price of ternary precursors, the cost and profit of producing ternary precursors, the processing fee of ternary precursors, the capacity utilization rate of ternary precursors, the capacity of ternary precursors, and the monthly production of ternary precursors showed different trends over time. [62] - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors from February 2025 to February 2026 showed different situations, with some months in surplus and some in short supply. [65] 3.11 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price and Cost**: The price of ternary materials, the cost and profit of producing ternary materials, the processing fee of ternary materials, the weekly operating rate of ternary materials, the capacity of ternary materials, the production of ternary materials, the export volume of ternary materials, the import volume of ternary materials, and the weekly inventory of ternary materials showed different trends over time. [68][70] 3.12 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - **Price and Cost**: The price of iron phosphate/iron phosphate lithium, the production cost of iron phosphate, the cost and profit of iron phosphate lithium, the capacity of iron phosphate/iron phosphate lithium, the monthly operating rate of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium, the monthly production of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium, the monthly export volume of iron phosphate lithium, and the weekly inventory of iron phosphate lithium showed different trends over time. [72][75][77] 3.13 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production, Sales, and Export**: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles, the sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles, the retail - wholesale ratio of hybrid and pure - electric vehicles, the inventory warning index of dealers, and the inventory index of dealers showed different trends over time. [80][81][84]

锂矿板块午后震荡走高，赣锋锂业冲击涨停，永兴材料涨超8%，天齐锂业、西藏矿业、盛新锂能跟 涨。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic lithium carbonate destocking trend continues. Although the lithium carbonate spot market has not shown significant looseness, recent macro disturbances are frequent. Geopolitical wars have impacted the non - ferrous metals sector, and capital has rotated among sectors. The lithium carbonate market is driven by sentiment, and prices are in wide - range fluctuations. However, the trends of industry inventory destocking and tight supply - demand have not reversed. Future attention should be paid to supply changes, downstream stocking rhythms, and the atmosphere of the commodity market. In the short term, interval operations are recommended, and short - term unilateral operations should be mainly on the sidelines [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On March 18, 2026, the main lithium carbonate contract 2605 opened at 155,000 yuan/ton and closed at 150,120 yuan/ton, with a - 4.43% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume on that day was 205,889 lots, and the open interest was 307,422 lots (the previous day's open interest was 308,842 lots). According to SMM spot quotes, the current basis is 4,020 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts on that day were 35,769 lots, a change of - 696 lots from the previous trading day [1] - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 151,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, a change of - 2,500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 148,000 - 157,000 yuan/ton, a change of - 2,000 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 2,180 US dollars/ton, a change of - 45 US dollars/ton from the previous day [1] - According to the latest SMM data statistics, the weekly domestic lithium carbonate output is reported at 23,426 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.7%. In February 2026, the domestic lithium carbonate output was 83,090 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.1% and a year - on - year increase of 29.7%. The output from January to February increased by 43.0% year - on - year [1] - The energy storage sector still maintains a good growth expectation, but the growth rate expectation of new energy vehicle sales has slowed down. This downward transmission has led to a weakened willingness of cathode material manufacturers and battery enterprises to replenish inventory, shifting from "replenishing inventory at low prices" to "purchasing on demand" [1] Inventory Analysis - According to the latest SMM statistics, the spot inventory is 98,959 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 414 tons. Among them, the smelter inventory is 16,292 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,184 tons; the downstream inventory is 45,647 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,890 tons; other inventories are 37,020 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,120 tons. The downstream inventory has increased, while the smelter and other inventories have decreased, and the overall destocking pattern is still maintained [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly on the sidelines in the short term - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view on the lithium carbonate market is a state of tight supply - demand balance, with sentiment fluctuations caused by news. The lithium carbonate 2605 contract is expected to oscillate between 145,740 - 156,500 [10][14]. - In terms of fundamentals, it is bullish. The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, also bullish. The disk is neutral, and the main position is net short with a reduction in short positions, which is bearish. In the future, supply is expected to increase, demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced [10][11]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market. Bullish factors include the production cut plan of lithium mica manufacturers and the decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile. Bearish factors are the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline [12][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: Bullish. Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 23,426 tons, a 3.70% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased, while the smelter inventory decreased, and the overall inventory decreased slightly and was lower than the historical average [7][8]. - **Basis**: On March 18, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 155,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 5,380 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [11]. - **Inventory**: The lithium carbonate 2605 contract is expected to oscillate between 145,740 - 156,500 [10]. - **Cost**: The cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate decreased by 1.17% day - on - day, resulting in a loss. The cost of purchasing lithium mica decreased by 2.47% day - on - day, resulting in a profit. The cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, with low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is significantly lower than that of the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [11]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20, which is neutral [11]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [11]. - **Expectation**: In February 2026, the lithium carbonate production was 83,090 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 106,390 physical tons, a 28.04% month - on - month increase. The import volume in February was 21,800 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 26,000 physical tons, a 19.27% month - on - month increase. Demand is expected to strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced [11]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - **Futures Closing Price**: The closing prices of various contracts decreased to varying degrees compared with the previous values. For example, the 05 contract decreased from 155,320 to 150,120, a decrease of 5,200 or 3.35% [17]. - **Basis**: The basis of various contracts increased to varying degrees compared with the previous values. For example, the basis of the 05 contract increased from 2,680 to 5,380, an increase of 2,700 or 100.75% [17]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: The number of registered warehouse receipts was 35,769, a decrease of 696 or 1.91% compared with the previous value [17]. - **Upstream Prices**: The prices of lithium ore, lithium salts, and other products changed to varying degrees. For example, the price of lithium spodumene (6%) decreased from 2,185 to 2,157 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 28 or 1.28% [17]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Production**: The production of lithium ore from different sources such as lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and salt lake has changed. For example, the monthly production of lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene decreased from 50,200 to 60,100 tons, a decrease of 9,900 or 16.47% [20]. - **Import**: The import volume of lithium ore and lithium carbonate has changed. For example, the monthly import volume of lithium concentrate decreased from 677,528 to 628,032 tons, a decrease of 49,496 or 7.31% [20]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium ore shows different situations in different months. For example, in February 2026, the supply - demand balance was - 6,821 tons [20]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Production**: The production of lithium carbonate from different sources such as lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and salt lake has changed. For example, the monthly production of lithium carbonate decreased from 97,900 to 83,090 tons, a decrease of 14,810 or 15.13% [20]. - **Import and Export**: The import and export volume of lithium carbonate has changed. For example, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate increased from 22,055.19 to 23,988.66 tons, an increase of 1,933.47 or 8.77% [20]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate shows different situations in different months. For example, in February 2026, the supply - demand balance was - 6,821 tons [40]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Production**: The production of lithium hydroxide from different sources such as smelting and causticizing has changed. For example, the monthly production of lithium hydroxide decreased from 26,950 to 22,940 tons, a decrease of 4,010 or 14.88% [20]. - **Import and Export**: The import and export volume of lithium hydroxide has changed. For example, the monthly net export volume of lithium hydroxide decreased from 1,937.11 to 1,225.17 tons, a decrease of 711.94 or 36.75% [20]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide shows different situations in different months. For example, in February 2026, the supply - demand balance was - 1,412 tons [45]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - **Cost and Profit of Purchasing Lithium Spodumene Concentrate**: The cost decreased, resulting in a loss in production [11]. - **Cost and Profit of Purchasing Lithium Mica Concentrate**: The cost decreased, resulting in a profit in production [11]. - **Cost and Profit of Recycling Lithium - Containing Materials**: The cost is generally high, and the production enthusiasm is low [11]. - **Cost and Profit of Lithium Carbonate Import**: It shows different profit situations in different periods [49]. 3.7 Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The total inventory decreased slightly, with the smelter inventory decreasing and the downstream inventory increasing [8]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The inventory situation also shows certain changes [57]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Power Battery**: The production, sales, and installation volume of power batteries have changed. For example, the monthly installation volume of power batteries decreased from 42,000 GWh to 26,300 GWh, a decrease of 15,700 or 37.38% [20]. - **Energy - Storage Battery**: The production, sales, and installation volume of energy - storage batteries have changed. For example, the monthly production of energy - storage battery cells shows a certain trend [63]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price and Cost**: The price and cost of ternary precursors have changed. For example, the price of 5 - series (single - crystal/power - type) ternary precursors remained unchanged at 104,400 yuan/ton [17]. - **Production and Supply - Demand Balance**: The production and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors show different situations in different months. For example, in February 2026, the supply - demand balance was 804 tons [69]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price and Cost**: The price and cost of ternary materials have changed. For example, the price of 5 - series (single - crystal/power - type) ternary materials decreased from 193,500 to 192,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 700 or 0.36% [17]. - **Production and Supply - Demand Balance**: The production and supply - demand balance of ternary materials show different situations in different months [72]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - **Price and Cost**: The price and cost of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium have changed. For example, the price of power - type iron phosphate lithium decreased from 55,475 to 54,870 yuan/ton, a decrease of 605 or 1.09% [17]. - **Production and Supply - Demand Balance**: The production and supply - demand balance of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium show different situations in different months [76]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production, Sales, and Export**: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles have changed. For example, the monthly production of new energy vehicles decreased from 1,718,000 to 1,041,000, a decrease of 677,000 or 39.41% [20]. - **Sales Penetration Rate**: The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles shows an upward trend [85].

Core Viewpoint - The current lithium supply projects are unlikely to meet the demand by the mid-2030s, highlighting the necessity for continued investment in the lithium value chain [1][5]. Group 1: Supply Shortage and Demand Growth - A more urgent supply shortage is approaching, driven by electric vehicles and energy storage, with a consensus forming around tightening market conditions [3][6]. - Wood Mackenzie forecasts that lithium will face a supply shortage as early as 2028 under various energy transition scenarios, with a projected supply gap of approximately 670,000 tons by 2050 in a steady transition scenario [5][6]. - The lithium supply gap is imminent, with the need to mobilize capital quickly to secure more lithium resources [6]. Group 2: Role of Energy Storage - Energy storage is emerging as a new growth driver for lithium demand, with annual growth rates of 6%-7% expected as renewable energy becomes dominant [8][9]. - UBS predicts a 55% increase in lithium demand from energy storage in 2026, with energy storage's share of lithium demand projected to rise from 8% in 2020 to 42% by 2035 [9]. Group 3: Lithium Price Trends - The lithium market is currently experiencing a dual drive from supply-side disruptions and increased demand from energy storage, leading to a new upward trend in lithium prices [10][11]. - After a period of low prices, lithium prices surged from under $10 per kilogram in 2020 to nearly $70 per kilogram by 2022, with a forecasted price adjustment to around $26 per kilogram by UBS due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium mining stocks in the A-share market experienced a significant decline, with major companies seeing drops of over 5% in their stock prices, coinciding with a decrease in lithium carbonate contract prices [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On March 18, lithium mining stocks such as Guocheng Mining and Dazhong Mining fell by over 5%, while Hainan Mining, Yongxing Materials, and Hebang Biology dropped by over 4% [1]. - The main contract price for lithium carbonate fell by over 4%, reaching 150,220 yuan per ton [1]. Group 2: Company-Specific Stock Movements - Guocheng Mining (code: 000688) saw a decline of 5.91%, with a total market value of 38.9 billion yuan and a year-to-date increase of 32.82% [2]. - Dazhong Mining (code: 001203) decreased by 5.32%, with a market capitalization of 54.8 billion yuan and a year-to-date increase of 35.77% [2]. - Hainan Mining (code: 601969) fell by 4.21%, with a market value of 24.5 billion yuan and a year-to-date increase of 12.28% [2]. - Yongxing Materials (code: 002756) dropped by 4.10%, with a market capitalization of 34 billion yuan and a year-to-date increase of 63.14% [2]. - Other notable declines include Shengxin Lithium Energy (down 3.86%), Ganfeng Lithium (down 3.71%), and Tianshu New Energy (down 3.54%) [2].

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a widespread decline in lithium mining stocks, with Guocheng Mining and Dazhong Mining dropping over 5% [1] - Hainan Mining, Yongxing Materials, and Hebang Biology fell more than 4%, while Shengxin Lithium Energy, Ganfeng Lithium, Chuanfa Longmang, Tibet Zhufeng, Tianhua Xinneng, Huayou Cobalt, Tibet Mining, and Chuaneng Power dropped over 3% [1] - The main contract for lithium carbonate experienced a decline of over 4%, trading at 150,220 yuan per ton [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall fundamentals of lithium carbonate are favorable, with supply increasing, demand potentially strengthening, and inventory likely to be reduced. The price of lithium carbonate 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 150,320 - 161,040 [8]. - The main logic is the emotional shock caused by news under the tight supply - demand balance. The main risk factors are the impact of shutdown, production reduction, or maintenance plans and the start - up time of industrial clearance [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 23,426 tons, a 3.70% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In February 2026, the production was 83,090 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 106,390 physical tons, a 28.04% month - on - month increase. The import volume in February 2026 was 21,800 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 26,000 physical tons, a 19.27% month - on - month increase [8]. - **Demand**: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 105,780 tons, a 5.22% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,019 tons, a 1.17% week - on - week increase. Next month, demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced [8]. - **Cost**: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 154,652 yuan/ton, with no daily change. The production income is - 113 yuan/ton, resulting in a loss. The cost of purchased lithium mica is 149,352 yuan/ton, with no daily change, and the production income is 3,019 yuan/ton, resulting in a profit. The production cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 32,231 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that of the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [8]. - **Basis**: On March 17, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 158,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 2,680 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory was 16,292 tons, a 6.77% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory was 45,647 tons, a 4.32% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. Other inventories were 37,020 tons, a 2.93% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average. The total inventory was 98,959 tons, a 0.41% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20, showing a neutral situation [8]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the main position decreased, showing a bearish situation [8]. - **Likely Factors**: Lithium mica manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production and a month - on - month decline in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile [9]. - **Bearish Factors**: The supply at the ore/salt lake end remains at a high level, with a limited decline [10]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - **Price and Basis**: The prices of most lithium - related products showed fluctuations. For example, the price of lithium spodumene (6%) increased by 1.16% to 2,185 US dollars/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.96% to 158,000 yuan/ton [14]. - **Supply - side Data**: The weekly start - up rate was 73.46%, with no change. The monthly production of lithium carbonate was 83,090 tons, a 15.13% month - on - month decrease. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate was 628,032 tons, a 7.31% month - on - month decrease, and the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 23,988.66 tons, an 8.77% month - on - month increase [17]. - **Demand - side Data**: The monthly start - up rate of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 7.14% to 65%. The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 7.67% to 300,250 tons, and the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate lithium decreased by 12.20% to 348,200 tons. The monthly export volume of lithium iron phosphate lithium decreased by 47.82% to 4,028,745 kilograms [17]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price and Production**: The price of lithium ore (6% CIF) has fluctuated over the years. The production of Chinese sample lithium spodumene mines and domestic lithium mica has also shown different trends in different years [24]. - **Import and Self - sufficiency Rate**: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate has changed, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has also shown certain trends [24]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Start - up Rate and Production**: The weekly start - up rate of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycled materials) has fluctuated. The monthly production of lithium carbonate has also changed, with different trends in battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate [31]. - **Import and Recycling**: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries (Chile, Argentina, etc.) has changed, and the recycling of waste lithium batteries has also shown certain trends [31][34]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Capacity Utilization and Production**: The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide has fluctuated over the years. The monthly production of lithium hydroxide from different sources (causticization and smelting) has also changed [40]. - **Export**: The export volume of Chinese lithium hydroxide has shown different trends in different years [40]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - **Cost and Profit of Different Materials**: The cost and profit of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and recycled materials for lithium carbonate production have fluctuated over the years. The profit of lithium hydroxide processing and export has also changed [46][49][52]. 3.7 Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The weekly and monthly inventories of lithium carbonate in smelters, downstream, and other aspects have shown different trends [54]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide in smelters and downstream has also changed [54]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - Power Battery - **Price and Production**: The price of batteries has fluctuated, and the monthly production of power cells (ternary and lithium iron phosphate) has also changed [58]. - **Loading and Export**: The monthly loading volume of power batteries (lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials) has decreased, and the export volume of lithium batteries has shown different trends in different years [58]. 3.9 Demand - Lithium Battery - Energy Storage - **Inventory and Production**: The inventory of lithium battery cells (power ternary, power lithium iron phosphate, and energy - storage batteries) has changed, and the monthly production of energy - storage cells has also shown different trends [60]. - **Bidding and Cost**: The energy - storage system EPC bidding and the cost of 314Ah lithium iron phosphate energy - storage cells have also changed [60]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price and Cost**: The price of ternary precursors has fluctuated, and the cost and profit of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/consumer) have also changed [63]. - **Capacity Utilization and Production**: The capacity utilization rate of ternary precursors has fluctuated, and the monthly production of ternary precursors (333, 523, 622, 811, NCA) has also changed [63]. 3.11 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price and Cost**: The price of ternary materials has fluctuated, and the cost and profit of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer) have also changed [69]. - **Start - up Rate and Production**: The weekly start - up rate of ternary materials has fluctuated, and the production of ternary materials (NCA, 3 - series, 5 - series, 6 - series, 8 - series) has also changed [69]. 3.12 Demand - Lithium Iron Phosphate/Lithium Iron Phosphate - **Price and Cost**: The price of lithium iron phosphate/lithium iron phosphate has fluctuated, and the production cost of lithium iron phosphate and the cost - profit trend of lithium iron phosphate have also changed [73]. - **Capacity and Production**: The capacity of lithium iron phosphate/lithium iron phosphate has increased, and the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate has also changed [73][76]. 3.13 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production, Sales, and Export**: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles have changed, and the sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles has also increased [81][82]. - **Retail - Wholesale Ratio and Inventory Index**: The retail - wholesale ratio of hybrid and pure - electric new energy vehicles and the inventory warning index and inventory index of dealers have also changed [85].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: March 18, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [4] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Market Analysis 1. Market Conditions - Carbonate lithium futures fluctuated downward, with the total open interest increasing slightly by 2,309 lots. The 05 - 09 spread on the market remained at a backwardation of 60. The market's risk - aversion sentiment returned, and the upward movement of lithium prices was frustrated [12]. - The spot market made up for the price increase. The price of spot electric carbon rose by 2,000 to 157,000 in the evening session. Upstream suppliers were reluctant to sell, and downstream buyers were observing. Australian ore prices rose by 10 to 2,170, mica ore prices remained flat at 2,325, and the prices of ternary and lithium iron phosphate materials were both unchanged [12]. - Currently, the carbonate lithium market features high production, high imports, and high demand. The inventory reduction speed of domestic carbonate lithium has slowed down. There are still macro uncertainties, and the sentiment of capital speculation is not high. It is expected that the carbonate lithium price will continue to show a fluctuating trend [12]. 2. Industry News - Japan and the United States will reach an agreement on the joint development of rare earths, lithium, and copper at this week's summit [13]. - Zangge Mining stated at its performance briefing that the Mami Cuo Salt Lake it is developing is located in the Ali region of Tibet, mainly containing surface brine. The Mami Cuo Salt Lake project uses advanced lithium extraction technologies such as adsorption and membrane separation. It is planned to be built in two phases with an annual production capacity of 100,000 tons of carbonate lithium. The first - phase project is planned to have an annual production capacity of 50,000 tons of carbonate lithium. As of now, the main workshop of the project has been enclosed, and it is in the equipment installation stage, progressing smoothly according to the construction plan. The first - phase project of the Mami Cuo Salt Lake is expected to be fully put into production in the third quarter of 2026 and enter the capacity - release period [13]. - Diversified mining giant Rio Tinto announced that after taking over the direct management of Nemaska Lithium in February, it decided to slow down the construction progress of the Bécancour lithium hydroxide conversion project in Quebec, Canada, after in - depth review. Rio Tinto said that the review concluded that adjustments were needed to put the project on a more stable and sustainable development path. Therefore, construction activities will be reduced for the rest of this year, and efforts will be made to complete the optimization work. This decision was reached through consensus between Rio Tinto and the Nemaska Lithium board of directors. Rio Tinto revealed that the engineering design of the Bécancour project has been fully completed, and the current construction progress has exceeded 70%. It was reported that the construction progress of the project reached 60% at the end of 2025, and the engineering design was completed simultaneously. It was originally planned to start commissioning work in 2026, with the goal of achieving the first commercial production in 2028. During the optimization phase, some construction activities will continue, while the rest will be suspended or postponed. The number of on - site contractor employees is expected to temporarily decrease. Rio Tinto is working closely with its contracting partners to provide support to the affected personnel [13][14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate will seek support around the cost line (150,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton) and show a weak oscillating pattern, waiting for new supply - demand drivers. The core contradiction lies in the game between the short - term emotional premium caused by supply - side news disturbances (African export policy) and the actual resilience of the demand side, which buys at low prices but lacks the willingness to chase high prices. The market is re - evaluating the effectiveness of fundamental and cost support [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Lithium Salt Market Introduction - **Lithium Carbonate Futures**: The price dropped by 2.61% from 156,160 yuan/ton last Friday to 152,080 yuan/ton this Friday [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate Spot**: The arrival price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (electro - carbon) increased by 2.29% to 158,350 yuan/ton, and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 2.31% to 155,250 yuan/ton [5]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Spot**: The prices of different types of lithium hydroxide all increased, with an increase rate between 1.53% - 1.64% [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate Premium**: The premium of different raw materials and enterprises changed. For example, the premium of mica - based lithium carbonate decreased by 100 yuan, and the premium of Ganfeng Lithium changed from - 100 yuan to 0 yuan [8]. Lithium Salt Fundamental Analysis - **Supply - China Lithium Carbonate Production**: Not detailed in the content. - **Supply - Production by Region**: Not detailed in the content. - **Supply - Production by Raw Material Source**: Not detailed in the content. - **Supply - China Lithium Hydroxide Production**: Not detailed in the content. - **Demand - Mid - and Down - stream Consumption**: Not detailed in the content. - **Import and Export - Lithium Ore Import**: African lithium ore export policy is the core disturbance factor this week, and the market is worried about tightened import supply [3]. - **Import and Export - Lithium Ore Transportation**: The freight rates from South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria for both bulk and container transportation remained unchanged this week [29]. - **Import and Export - Lithium Ore Transportation Cost**: The freight rates from South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria for both bulk and container transportation remained unchanged this week [29]. - **Import and Export - Lithium Carbonate**: Not detailed in the content. - **Import and Export - Seasonal Variation**: Not detailed in the content. - **Import and Export - Lithium Hydroxide**: Not detailed in the content. - **Inventory - Lithium Carbonate Social Inventory**: Not detailed in the content. - **Inventory - Lithium Carbonate Warehouse Receipts**: The total warehouse receipts increased by 73 to 36,403, with some warehouses showing inventory increases (e.g., 12.41% increase in the inventory of the外运龙泉驿库) [42]. - **Cost and Profit - Lithium Carbonate**: The production cost of externally purchased lithium concentrate decreased by 2.06% to 160,350 yuan/ton, and the production profit decreased by 77.58% to - 1,999.6 yuan/ton [3]. Lithium Battery Fundamental Analysis - **Market - Cathode Materials**: Not detailed in the content. - **Supply - Cathode Materials Production**: Not detailed in the content. - **Supply - Electrolyte Price and Production**: Not detailed in the content. - **Demand - Cathode Materials Consumption**: Not detailed in the content. - **Import and Export - Lithium Battery Materials**: Not detailed in the content. - **Import and Export - Batteries**: Not detailed in the content. - **Cost and Profit - Ternary Materials**: Not detailed in the content. - **Lithium Battery Recycling**: Not detailed in the content. - **New Energy Vehicles - Production and Sales**: Not detailed in the content. - **New Energy Vehicles - Other Important Data**: Not detailed in the content.