Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina futures price has been oscillating downward due to high production, increasing warehouse receipts, and high inventory. Although there was a brief rebound at the end of October driven by the strengthening of the non - ferrous sector, it quickly reversed. The current price is near the cost of most manufacturers, and ore price fluctuations and production reduction actions will determine the future price trend. - The alumina spot price is under pressure due to high monthly production and continuous inventory accumulation. The oversupply situation is expected to persist until large - scale production cuts occur. - After the rainy season, the bauxite shipping will gradually resume, and the ore price is expected to decline. The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting sector is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. However, as the current price is close to the cost line of most manufacturers, the expectation of future production cuts is increasing. Considering the strong performance of the overall non - ferrous sector, short - term short - selling is not cost - effective. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy. [11][12] Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment - **Futures Price**: As of November 7, the alumina index has fallen 3.15% since September 30 to 2801 yuan/ton. The high production, increasing warehouse receipts, and high inventory have driven the futures price to oscillate downward. The basis fluctuated narrowly in October, and as of November 7, the Shandong spot price was at a discount of 3 yuan/ton to the main alumina contract price. The spread between the first - and third - month contracts continued to widen, with the near - month contract weakening due to the weak spot market and the far - month contract being relatively strong due to production reduction expectations. - **Spot Price**: The monthly alumina production remained at a high level this year, and the inventory accumulation trend continued, putting pressure on the spot price. As of November 7, 2025, the spot prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang were 2930 yuan/ton, 2960 yuan/ton, 2855 yuan/ton, 2780 yuan/ton, 2840 yuan/ton, and 3120 yuan/ton respectively, with significant drops compared to early October. The decline in the southern region was greater than that in the northern region. - **Inventory**: As of November 7, the total social inventory of alumina increased by 251,000 tons to 4.588 million tons compared to early October. The alumina futures warehouse receipts increased by 99,600 tons to 106,300 tons, and the inventory in the SHFE delivery warehouse increased by 16,500 tons to 253,700 tons. [11] 2. Supply - side - In 2025, the alumina production in September was 7.746 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.69% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.68%. The cumulative production in the first nine months was 66.84 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.82%. - New production capacity projects in the first three quarters were successfully put into operation and gradually released production. However, the uncertainty of new production in the fourth quarter has increased due to profit fluctuations. - The alumina spot price has been continuously declining, and the profit of alumina plants is under pressure. The production profit in different regions varies, with Guangxi having a relatively high profit, while some inland regions using imported ore are at a loss. [40][43][45] 3. Raw Material - side - **Bauxite Price**: Domestic bauxite production has decreased recently due to environmental regulations in the north and the rainy season in the south, but the price remains firm. The price of imported bauxite is expected to decline further after the rainy season as the overseas shipping volume is stable and the port inventory is high. - **Bauxite Production**: In October 2025, China's bauxite production was 4.77 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.00% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.25%. The cumulative production in the first ten months was 50.52 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.22%. - **Bauxite Import**: In September 2025, China imported 15.88 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 37.45% and a month - on - month decrease of 19.77%. The cumulative import in the first nine months was 157.64 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.97%. - **Inventory**: As of October 31, 2025, the global bauxite shipping volume remained stable at a high level. China's bauxite port inventory was 27.36 million tons, and the total bauxite inventory increased by 240,000 tons to 52.5 million tons in October, remaining at a high level in the past five years. [12][25][27] 4. Import and Export - In September 2025, the net export of alumina was 186,400 tons, maintaining a net export status. The cumulative net export in the first nine months was 1.4512 million tons. - As of November 7, the monthly Australian FOB price decreased by 1 US dollar/ton to 320 US dollars/ton, and the import profit and loss was - 46 yuan/ton. The overseas alumina price fluctuated in the range of 315 - 320 US dollars this month, and the domestic spot price continued to decline, leading to a decrease in import profit and loss. [48][51] 5. Demand - side - In September 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.73% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.86%. The cumulative production in the first nine months was 33.07 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.73%. - The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum in September 2025 was 44.56 million tons, an increase of 160,000 tons from the previous month. The operating rate of electrolytic aluminum increased by 0.35% month - on - month to 97.47%. [55][58] 6. Inventory - As of November 7, the total social inventory of alumina increased by 251,000 tons to 4.588 million tons compared to early October. The alumina futures warehouse receipts increased by 99,600 tons to 106,300 tons, and the inventory in the SHFE delivery warehouse increased by 16,500 tons to 253,700 tons. [63][64]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The aluminum market presents a complex situation with both bullish and bearish factors. Bullish factors include relatively limited domestic supply increase, tight overseas supply - demand, and certain social inventory of aluminum ingots. Bearish factors are short - term macro concerns, weakening alumina prices, and overall weak downstream consumption due to high aluminum prices [8]. - The supply of domestic bauxite is expected to recover significantly after the end of the rainy season, while the import volume of bauxite may gradually increase as the rainy season in Guinea ends [14][18]. - The supply over - capacity expectation of alumina remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to unexpected disturbances on the supply side. The production of electrolytic aluminum increased in October, and the industry's profit expanded due to cost reduction and a slight increase in aluminum prices. However, high aluminum prices have suppressed downstream consumption, leading to a slight decline in the aluminum processing start - up rate [21][25][28]. - The real estate market is in a weak state with declines in construction area, new - start area, and sales volume. In contrast, the new energy vehicle industry maintains high prosperity, which may drive the demand for aluminum [33][37]. - The inventory situation is mixed, with foreign inventory rising and domestic inventory falling. The social inventory of aluminum ingots is still at a relatively low level, providing some support for aluminum prices [40][44]. - The price of recycled aluminum is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term, and the supply of aluminum alloy is expected to decrease, with the price following the upward trend of aluminum [60][61]. Summary by Directory Report Summary - Bullish factors for aluminum include limited domestic supply increase, social inventory of aluminum ingots, and tight overseas supply - demand. Bearish factors are short - term macro concerns and weakening alumina prices [8]. - Data has dampened the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and the US dollar index has rebounded [9]. - The supply of domestic bauxite is currently tight but is expected to recover significantly after the end of the rainy season. The import volume of bauxite decreased in September due to the rainy season in Guinea and may gradually increase later [14][18]. Data Analysis - In September, China's alumina production was 7.746 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. From January to September, the cumulative production was 66.836 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 9.8% [23]. - In October, the production of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased year - on - year by 1.13% and month - on - month by 3.52%. The proportion of aluminum water in the industry increased by 1.4 percentage points to 77.7% [25]. - In September, the weighted average full cost of China's electrolytic aluminum industry was 15,918 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 193 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of the industry reached 4,849 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 301 yuan/ton [28]. - The start - up rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises was 61.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6 percentage points [30]. - From January to September, the real estate market showed a decline in construction area, new - start area, and sales volume. In contrast, the new energy vehicle industry maintained high prosperity, with production and sales increasing significantly [34][38]. - The inventory of LME aluminum increased to a nearly eight - month high, while the inventory of SHFE aluminum decreased to a two - and - a - half - month low. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased during the week and is still at a relatively low level [41][44]. - On November 6, the domestic spot premium and LME aluminum premium both widened [46]. - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy increased, but it is expected to decrease slightly in October due to the shortage of scrap aluminum. The start - up rate of the recycled aluminum alloy industry increased in October, but there is significant differentiation within the industry [49][52]. - In September, the import of unforged aluminum alloy decreased year - on - year by 13.2%. The import volume in October is expected to increase slightly but be lower than the same period last year [55]. 后市研判 - The supply of aluminum alloy is expected to decrease, and as the automotive industry is still in the sales - boosting stage, the demand during the peak season is still expected. The price of aluminum alloy will follow the upward trend of aluminum [61].

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose approximately 2.1% yesterday, driven by strong performance in the technology sector[1] - Major tech stocks like Tencent (700 HK), Alibaba (9988 HK), and JD.com (9618 HK) saw increases between 2.4% and 4.1%[1] - Semiconductor stocks also performed well, with SMIC (981 HK) and Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347 HK) rising 7.3% and 9.1%, respectively[1] - Despite the market rally, trading volume remained cautious at over HKD 230 billion[1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. stock market saw declines of 0.8% to 1.9% across major indices, amid concerns over the ongoing government shutdown entering its 37th day[2] - U.S. companies announced a significant increase in layoffs for October, with 153,000 job cuts reported, marking a month-on-month increase of over 1.8 times and the highest for the month in 22 years[2] Macro Dynamics - Australia's trade surplus for September was AUD 3.94 billion, significantly higher than August's AUD 1.11 billion and slightly above Bloomberg's forecast of AUD 3.93 billion[3] - Japan's October S&P Composite PMI rose slightly to 51.5 from 51.3 in September, indicating continued growth in the services sector, although the Services PMI fell to 53.1 from 53.3[3] Sector Performance - The renewable energy and utilities sectors saw broad gains, with Weisheng Holdings (3393 HK) surging 9.6% to a 52-week high, driven by increased demand for smart distribution services[4] - Weichai Power (2338 HK) experienced a significant stock price increase of 20.5%, following a production licensing agreement with Cares Power for solid oxide fuel cells[4] - The healthcare sector's Hang Seng Medical Care Index rose 0.7%, with notable gains for Jing Tai Holdings (2228 HK) due to its inclusion in the MSCI China Index and a strategic partnership with Eli Lilly[5]

Report Overview - The report is a weekly report on non-ferrous metals (aluminum) by New Era Futures Research, dated November 7, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - In the short term, alumina is expected to run weakly and fluctuate, while Shanghai aluminum is expected to run strongly with fluctuations. In the long term, in the context of positive macro - sentiment, Shanghai aluminum is expected to run strongly with fluctuations, and alumina will run weakly and fluctuate before large - scale production cuts [17] Summary by Directory Aluminum Raw Material Supply - As of October 31, the port inventory of bauxite was 27.3584 million tons, a decrease of 359,300 tons from the previous week. As of the end of September, the bauxite inventory of alumina plants was 23.86 million tons, at a historical high [6] - Overseas bauxite supply is still sufficient, and with high inventory, the price of Guinea bauxite has declined recently, weakening cost support [16] Alumina Supply - As of November 7, the operating rate of alumina enterprises was 85.25%, slightly down from the previous week. The total inventory of alumina was 4.788 million tons, an increase of 56,000 tons from the previous week [9] - The domestic alumina operating capacity is at a high level, but the weekly output decreased by 4,000 tons to 1.735 million tons due to the reduction of the roasting furnace load rate of some enterprises. The supply - over - demand pressure of alumina still exists, and it is expected to continue to run weakly and fluctuate [16] Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - As of the end of October, the operating rate of the electrolytic aluminum industry was 98.24%, remaining at a high level. As of September, China's primary aluminum production was 3.644 million tons, imports were 246,800 tons, and inventory was 591,000 tons [12] - As of November 7, LME aluminum inventory was 548,400 tons, a decrease of 9,700 tons from the previous week; SHFE aluminum inventory was 113,300 tons, a decrease of 239 tons from the previous week; COMEX aluminum inventory was 6,675 tons, an increase of 25 tons from the previous week. Overall, electrolytic aluminum inventory showed a destocking trend this week [14] - The supply of electrolytic aluminum is basically stable. Due to environmental protection restrictions, high aluminum prices, and the end of the peak season, the terminal demand is expected to weaken, and the proportion of molten aluminum may decline. In the context of positive macro - sentiment, the demand support for electrolytic aluminum is weakened, but the supply is expected to be tight due to overseas production cuts, and it is expected to run strongly with fluctuations [16] Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: Alumina runs weakly and fluctuates; Shanghai aluminum runs strongly with fluctuations. - Medium - and long - term: Pay attention to the pace of US dollar interest rate cuts. In the context of positive macro - sentiment, Shanghai aluminum runs strongly with fluctuations; alumina runs weakly and fluctuates before large - scale production cuts [17]

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum market is experiencing unprecedented enthusiasm, with LME three-month aluminum prices surpassing $2,900 per ton, marking the highest level since May 2022 [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Record inflows into LME aluminum contracts have pushed this light metal to the forefront of the commodities market, with net long positions exceeding 130,000 lots, the highest since early 2022 [2] - The aluminum market is witnessing a significant influx of funds, with a single-day increase of over 50,000 lots in total holdings on November 3, indicating a dramatic rise in investor confidence [4] - The market narrative has shifted from neutral to bullish within six months, with net long positions increasing while short positions have decreased significantly [6] Group 2: Supply and Demand Balance - The global electrolytic aluminum market is precariously balanced, with future supply and demand expected to remain tight, hinging on China's production capacity and overseas capacity releases [8] - China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity is projected to reach 44.45 million tons by September 2025, with a utilization rate exceeding 101.2%, indicating overproduction [8] - Supply vulnerabilities have been highlighted by recent events, such as Century Aluminum's production halt due to equipment failure, raising concerns about global aluminum supply [10] Group 3: Future Outlook - The aluminum market has entered a new pricing paradigm, where high prices and profits are constrained by supply issues, leading to a scenario where prices are likely to rise further [12] - Projections indicate a supply gap of 344,000 tons in 2027, which could drive prices higher [12] - The aluminum industry is expected to see profit increases, with forecasts for domestic aluminum prices reaching 21,500, 22,000, and 22,500 yuan per ton from 2026 to 2028 [12][14] Group 4: Structural Changes and Competition - The aluminum industry is transitioning to a phase characterized by weak supply, high profits, and low capital expenditure [14] - Future competition will extend beyond price to include low-carbon technologies, supply chain resilience, and resource sustainability [17] - The aluminum market is influenced by geopolitical factors and energy transitions, positioning aluminum as a strategic material for a green future [16]

Core Viewpoint - The company is currently in a strong financial position with sufficient cash flow and good operational performance, focusing on cost control and innovation to enhance profitability [1] Group 1 - The company plans to optimize its supply chain and improve production efficiency to manage costs and maintain gross margins [1] - Continuous technological innovation and expansion into high-quality sectors are part of the company's strategy to ensure stable operations and performance improvement [1]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed a recovery in bullish sentiment, with the Hang Seng Technology Index rising by 2.74% and the Hang Seng Index increasing by 2.12%[9] - Southbound capital net inflow into Hong Kong stocks reached HKD 5.479 billion[9] Sector Performance - Technology stocks collectively surged, with Alibaba up over 4% and JD.com up over 3%[9] - Financial heavyweight stocks, including insurance and Chinese banks, also contributed to the market's rise[9] - Aluminum sector stocks led gains in the non-ferrous metals sector, with China Aluminum rising over 11%[9] U.S. Market Performance - Major U.S. indices closed lower, with the Nasdaq down 1.9%, S&P 500 down 1.12%, and Dow Jones down 0.84%[9] - Large tech stocks experienced declines, with Nvidia and Tesla both dropping over 3%[9] Notable Stock Movements - New stock Wangshan Wangshui debuted with a 145.73% increase on its first trading day[9] - Semiconductor stocks remained strong, with SMIC rising over 7% amid expectations of continued price increases in the fourth quarter[9] Economic Indicators - U.S. employers announced 153,074 layoffs in October, marking a 175% increase compared to the previous year[13] - The Bank of England maintained interest rates at 4%, indicating potential for future rate cuts[13]

Core Viewpoint - The company is addressing investor concerns regarding the projected low net profit of 200 million yuan from a 720,000-ton aluminum-based new materials project, despite an expected annual revenue of over 13 billion yuan, by clarifying the project's focus on the hot-rolling segment and the potential for value addition through further processing [1] Group 1 - The "720,000-ton aluminum-based new materials intelligent manufacturing project" is primarily focused on constructing a 1+4 hot-rolling production line [1] - The products from this project include aluminum for new energy materials, metal packaging, and transportation hot-rolled coils [1] - The project does not involve upstream production of recycled aluminum ingots or downstream cold-rolling/deep processing, which are higher value-added segments [1] Group 2 - The company anticipates significant value enhancement and structural optimization of its products through upstream recycling and downstream processing [1] - This strategic move is aimed at facilitating the company's transformation and upgrading efforts [1]

Core Viewpoint - The increase in aluminum ingot prices to 21,500 yuan is expected to enhance the company's product value, while the company maintains sufficient orders and full production capacity [2]. Company Summary - The company, Mingtai Aluminum (601677.SH), reported that the rise in aluminum ingot prices is beneficial for product value addition [2]. - The company currently has ample orders and is operating at full production capacity [2]. - The first phase of the Hongsheng New Material "Automotive and Green Energy Aluminum Industry Park Project" has been launched, which is expected to generate an annual capacity of 100,000 tons of automotive plates, thereby steadily increasing production and optimizing product structure [2].

Core Viewpoint - The increase in aluminum ingot prices is driving value addition for the company, leading to a robust order book and full production capacity [1] Group 1 - The company has sufficient orders on hand and is operating at full production capacity [1] - The first phase of the "Automotive and Green Energy Aluminum Industry Park Project" by Hongsheng New Materials has commenced production, expected to generate an annual capacity of 100,000 tons of automotive plates [1] - The company aims to steadily enhance production and sales volume while optimizing its product structure [1]