宏观利率研究 证券研究报告 / 宏观利率研究 2025 年 07 月 28 日 股债"跷跷板"分流资金 关注重要会议及中美谈判 宏观利率周报（20250721-0725） 研报摘要 ⚫ 核心观点：7 月全球 PMI 不及预期，关税压制环境中下半年出口增量有限。 叠加限产趋势，预计制造业景气或依然偏弱。上半年经济增长基础稳固，完成全 年目标三季度压力不大，下一轮稳增长或在四季度出现，长周期看货币政策无需 过早收紧。与此同时，反内卷预期短期难以证伪，权益市场放量加速行情仍在演 化，股市 "跷跷板"效应将继续分流债市资金，阶段性压力仍在。上周，各大商品 交易所连发风险提示，周五商品期货全线下跌，或有助利率平稳运行。本周建议 关注重要会议以及中美谈判结果。 ⚫ 行情回顾：雅江水电站亮相，股市赚钱效应显现，上证行情一度突破 3600 点，"跷跷板"效应分流债市资金。叠加反内卷政策陆续推出、资金面偏紧，收 益率全线大幅调整，期限结构陡峭化。 ⚫ 市场要闻：（1）贸易摩擦。商务部就欧盟第 18 轮对俄制裁列单中国企业和 金融机构事答记者问。（2）国债发行落实。第三批国债支持以旧换新资金下达。 置换债已发行全年额度的 90% ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content mentioned Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Anti - involution policies affect commodity prices and inflation expectations, leading to significant adjustments in the bond market. Credit bond yields rise with interest rates, and most credit spreads widen, especially for secondary perpetual bonds [3]. - It's too early to talk about negative feedback, with a very low probability. The market's ability to respond has improved, and there has been no change in macro - expectations. Moreover, bank wealth management's focus on liquidity can prevent negative feedback [4][6]. - The asset shortage pattern remains unchanged and is intensifying. Interest rates may have short - term adjustments but not continuous and significant ones. Credit spreads are likely to be volatile, and investors should seize phased trading opportunities [7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1 Market Review: Sharp Correction, Widening Spreads of Secondary Perpetual Bonds 1.1 Market Performance - The credit bond market had a sharp correction this week, with credit spreads widening. The stock market strengthened, and the bond market adjusted significantly. Yields of medium - and long - term secondary perpetual bonds rose more than 10bp, with a 14.5bp decline in 10Y secondary perpetual bonds. Credit spreads of secondary perpetual bonds widened more, while those of some medium - and long - term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds slightly narrowed [25]. 1.2 Insurance Continues to Allocate, Funds Sell Massively - Insurance companies continued to strongly allocate credit bonds, with a net purchase of 125.63 billion yuan this week, a 38.7% increase from the previous week. The net purchase of ultra - long - term credit bonds over 5 years was 6.75 billion yuan, with a similar increase compared to the previous week [40]. - Funds sold a large amount of credit bonds, reaching 22.578 billion yuan. The net sales of bonds within 5Y were 12.738 billion yuan, and those over 5Y were 7.474 billion yuan [40]. 1.3 Low - Rating Transaction Proportion Declines - The proportion of transactions with a remaining maturity of over 3 years for urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and secondary perpetual bonds was 30%, 29%, and 72% respectively, remaining at a high level. The proportion of low - rating transactions decreased, with a 1 - percentage - point decline in urban investment bonds with AA(2) and below, a 1 - percentage - point decline in industrial bonds with AA and below, and a 3 - percentage - point decline in secondary perpetual bonds with AA and below [49][53]. 2 Market Outlook: Redemption is Controllable, Seize Trading Opportunities 2.1 Redemption is Controllable, Seize Trading Opportunities - The market adjusted due to the impact of anti - involution policies on commodity prices and inflation expectations. Indicators such as the term structure of interest rate swaps showed a change in inflation expectations [57][61]. - There is no need to worry about negative feedback because the market's response ability has improved, and bank wealth management's focus on liquidity can prevent it. The asset shortage pattern persists, and interest rates are unlikely to have continuous and significant adjustments. Credit spreads are likely to be volatile, and investors should seize phased trading opportunities [4][7]. 2.2 Science and Technology Innovation Bonds Continue to Contribute Net Financing - In July, non - financial credit bond financing was good, with a net financing of 347.9 billion yuan, exceeding the levels of July in the previous two years [93]. 3 What to Buy in Credit? 3.1 Focus on High - Grade Secondary Perpetual Bonds for Trading, Weak - Quality Urban Investment Bonds for Coupon - For short - term secondary perpetual bonds, the price - to - value ratio is positive, while for medium - and long - term ones, it is negative. It is recommended that high - grade trading strategies focus on secondary perpetual bonds, and low - grade coupon strategies focus on urban investment bonds. The price - to - value ratio of short - term AAA secondary capital bonds to medium - term notes remains positive, and that of long - term ones fluctuates around 0 [100]. - The price - to - value ratio of short - term urban investment bonds to medium - term notes is positive, and that of long - term low - grade ones has rebounded rapidly, reaching the historical central level. Urban investment bonds still have an advantage in terms of bond selection scope [102]. 3.2 General Credit Coupon is More Advantageous - Currently, the proportion of urban investment bonds with a valuation above 2.3% is 19.8%, that of non - financial industrial bonds is 10.8%, and that of secondary perpetual bonds is 6.8%. From the perspective of coupon bond selection, general credit has a wider bond selection space [106]. 3.3 First - Level Issuance Statistics - No specific content provided in the output for further summary 3.4 Second - Level Valuation Change Details - No specific content provided in the output for further summary

据央视新闻，美日此前就关税问题达成一致。根据协议内容，美国将对包括汽车在内的日本商品统一征 收15%关税，低于此前特朗普威胁的25%税率。作为交换，日本承诺设立规模高达5500亿美元的基金用 于对美直接投资，投资方向将由美方主导。 美国商务部长卢特尼克透露称，该基金的资金将包括"股权、贷款和贷款担保"，投资方向将由美方主 导，美国将获得该投资90%的利润。协议明确，这些资金将投向美国战略工业基础的复兴，包括能源基 础设施和生产、半导体制造和研发、关键矿产开采加工、医药和医疗产品生产，以及商业和国防造船等 领域。 但日方却有不同解读。 日本政府首席谈判代表赤泽良圣周六在接受采访时澄清，在日美最新达成的5500亿美元基金中，真正的 投资仅占1%-2%，其余资金将以贷款形式提供。在投资收益分配上，美日将按照90:10的比例分成，而 非日本最初提议的50:50比例。 赤泽良圣强调，这并非将5500亿美元现金直接输送至美国，而是通过不同金融工具的组合实现。对于占 据基金主体的贷款部分，日本将收取利息。在贷款担保方面，如果没有违约发生，日本仅收取担保费 用。 5500亿美元基金中仅1%-2%为投资？美欧之后，美日也就贸易 ...

Core Insights - The implementation of the "Guiding Opinions on Deepening Reform and Strengthening Regulation to Promote High-Quality Development of New Energy Vehicle Insurance" has led to significant changes in the new energy vehicle insurance market over the past six months [2][3] - The industry is moving towards standardization in claims and repair processes, which is expected to enhance profitability in the new energy vehicle insurance sector [2][4] Group 1: Market Changes - The "Car Insurance Easy to Insure" platform has been launched to address the issue of high-risk models being difficult to insure, successfully registering 676,200 users and providing insurance for 506,600 new energy vehicles, amounting to a total insurance coverage of 494.812 billion yuan [4] - Despite improvements in insurability, challenges remain regarding high premiums and repair costs, with some consumers reporting that premiums for certain models are disproportionately high compared to vehicle value [4][5] Group 2: Industry Collaboration - Major insurance companies are shifting from a cautious approach to actively engaging in the new energy vehicle insurance market, indicating a reassessment of profitability prospects [7][10] - Collaborative efforts between insurance companies and automotive manufacturers are being emphasized, with examples such as Ping An's insurance service station at Tesla delivery centers and People’s Insurance Company of China’s partnerships with BYD dealers to streamline claims processes [7][8] Group 3: Standardization and Innovation - The establishment of unified standards for battery insurance and repair processes is crucial for reducing disputes and enhancing efficiency in the new energy vehicle insurance market [13][14] - The introduction of dynamic pricing models based on battery performance metrics is being advocated to improve risk assessment and pricing accuracy [8][11] Group 4: Future Prospects - The increasing penetration of new energy vehicles in the market is expected to create significant growth opportunities for insurance companies, with a focus on enhancing service quality and customer experience [10][11] - The potential for new energy vehicle insurance services to expand internationally is being explored, with partnerships being formed to establish insurance frameworks in Southeast Asia [17][18]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the innovative collaboration between meteorology and finance in Hangzhou, aiming to transform weather variables into economic growth through a series of measures and initiatives [3][4]. Group 1: Measures and Initiatives - Hangzhou has launched 12 initiatives under the "Meteorology × Finance" collaboration to enhance high-quality development, including the development of meteorological financial services and the promotion of meteorological insurance [3]. - A local regulation titled "Hangzhou Climate Resource Development and Protection Measures" has been introduced to clarify the legal status of meteorological insurance and encourage financial institutions to innovate carbon financial products [4]. - The city aims to establish a comprehensive service system that includes meteorological monitoring, risk assessment, insurance pricing, and loan support [4]. Group 2: Agricultural and Insurance Innovations - Hangzhou has developed 24 types of meteorological index insurance covering 15 categories of agricultural products, with an average annual claim of nearly 100 million yuan over the past five years [6]. - The city has implemented a "zero-run" insurance claim process, reducing the time for obtaining meteorological proof from several days to five minutes [6]. - The insurance coverage for the local homestay industry reached 661 billion yuan in 2024, with a total premium of 4.72 million yuan [6]. Group 3: Future Developments and Integration - The city is exploring a three-in-one empowerment system of "Meteorology, Banking, and Insurance," aiming to create a new service model that integrates meteorological data with financial services [7]. - Financial institutions in Hangzhou plan to incorporate weather data into credit scoring and develop climate-related loans to support green industries and meteorological infrastructure projects [7]. - The collaboration between local meteorological agencies and banks aims to revitalize rural resources and promote the development of the rural homestay industry [7].

Core Insights - The financial industry is entering a new phase filled with challenges and opportunities, emphasizing the importance of serving the real economy and enabling high-quality development [1] - Family offices are becoming a focal point for investors as global wealth and wealth management needs grow rapidly, yet the independent family office ecosystem in mainland China remains immature [1][5] Summary by Sections Family Office Development - Family offices in mainland China have been developing for about ten years but have not yet formed a mature ecosystem or gained acceptance among mainstream entrepreneurs [3][5] - The independent family office sector is primarily composed of non-licensed institutions, with most serving single families or multiple families [4][5] Challenges and Issues - The family office industry in mainland China faces several challenges, including a lack of standards, integrity issues among practitioners, and insufficient regulation [5] - A significant portion of family offices has been registered but subsequently deregistered, indicating instability in the sector [4][5] Comparison with International Markets - The competition from Hong Kong and Singapore is intensifying, with both regions actively promoting their family office services [7][8] - The characteristics of family office promotion in these regions include top-level planning, focus on single family offices, long-term tax incentives, and government intervention [7][8] Recommendations for Improvement - Family offices in mainland China should focus on building a robust local foundation while actively expanding overseas, balancing client needs and service quality [2][8] - There is a need for family offices to adopt a comprehensive approach to wealth management, integrating both domestic and international asset allocation strategies [9][15] Wealth Transfer and Governance - The recent "Wahaha inheritance" incident highlights the necessity for companies to move away from "parent culture" and moral halos, emphasizing strategic planning and governance [2][9] - Effective wealth transfer requires a trust-based governance structure, especially for entrepreneurs from the 50s and 60s generations [9][10] Industry Standards and Practices - The family office sector is plagued by issues such as fraudulent practices, exaggerated claims, and the commodification of services [6][17] - A clear distinction between genuine family offices and those masquerading as such is essential for the industry's credibility [18][19] Future Directions - The evolution of family offices should align with the new productive forces in society, focusing on enhancing overall productivity and fostering entrepreneurial spirit [18][19] - The industry must prioritize high standards in talent acquisition and maintain a focus on family interests to ensure sustainable growth [19]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent adjustments in the predetermined interest rates for various insurance products in China, highlighting the implications for the insurance industry and the potential opportunities for dividend insurance products [2][3][4]. Group 1: Event Summary - On July 25, the China Insurance Industry Association held a meeting to assess the predetermined interest rates for life insurance products, concluding that the current research value is 1.99% [2]. - Major insurance companies, including China Life, Ping An Life, and others, announced adjustments to the maximum predetermined interest rates for new insurance products, with ordinary life insurance set at 2.0%, dividend insurance at 1.75%, and universal insurance at a minimum guaranteed rate of 1.0% [2][3]. - The new maximum rates will take effect from August 31, 2025, and applications for insurance products exceeding these rates will no longer be accepted [2]. Group 2: Analysis and Implications - The predetermined interest rate research value has decreased by 14 basis points to 1.99%. This adjustment is based on market interest rate trends and the asset-liability management of the insurance industry [3]. - The maximum rates for traditional, dividend, and universal insurance have been lowered to 2.0%, 1.75%, and 1.0%, respectively, with the adjustments aimed at aligning with the research value and ensuring a smooth transition for new and existing products [4]. - The reduction in the predetermined interest rate for traditional insurance to 2.0% (the lowest since the 1990s) is expected to create a favorable environment for the growth of dividend insurance products, which previously thrived under higher interest rates [5]. - Regulatory changes have also allowed for an increase in the dividend level cap for large insurance companies, enhancing their competitive edge in the dividend insurance market [5]. - While the adjustments may cause short-term disruptions in new policy sales, they are anticipated to alleviate long-term risks associated with interest rate spreads and improve the overall investment strategy of insurance companies [5].

Group 1 - The Chinese government is advocating for the establishment of a World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization, with the headquarters tentatively located in Shanghai [7] - A new action plan titled "Mosu Zhixing" has been released, aiming to establish a leading high-level autonomous driving zone by 2027, creating a competitive smart connected vehicle industry cluster [8] - A new batch of demonstration operation licenses for smart connected vehicles has been issued in Shanghai, with companies like Xiaoma Yixing, Baidu Zhixing, and Saike Intelligent being among the first approved [9] Group 2 - The insurance industry association announced a reduction in the guaranteed interest rates for traditional life insurance products, with rates dropping from 2.5% to 2.0% for ordinary life insurance and from 2% to 1.75% for participating insurance [4] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is seeking public opinion on revised corporate governance standards, aiming to limit significant adverse impacts from competition among listed companies [11] - The agricultural sector is seeing initiatives to promote agricultural product consumption through nine measures, focusing on optimizing supply, innovating distribution, and activating market demand [13] Group 3 - Alibaba has announced the development progress of its self-developed AI glasses, "Quark AI Glasses," which integrate the Alibaba and Alipay ecosystems [10] - A new financing round for the large model company Jieyue Xingchen is expected to exceed $500 million, potentially becoming the largest financing in the large model industry for 2025 [18] - The bond market is experiencing significant adjustments, with bond funds facing redemption pressures, as nearly 100 billion yuan worth of bonds were sold in a single day [17]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent adjustments in the pricing interest rates for life insurance products, highlighting the implications for industry profitability, growth, and asset allocation [1][2][3][4]. Pricing Rate Adjustments - The predetermined interest rate for ordinary life insurance products is set to decrease from 2.5% to 2.0%, while the guaranteed interest rate for participating insurance will drop from 2% to 1.75%, and for universal insurance from 1.5% to 1.0% [2]. - Major companies like Ping An, China Life, and Taikang Life will switch to the new pricing rates after August 31 [2]. Impact on Industry Profitability - The reduction in predetermined interest rates is expected to lower the rigid repayment costs for new business, improving long-term interest rate risk for insurance companies [2]. - There are concerns that the short-term floating costs for participating insurance may increase, but the overall long-term profitability is anticipated to improve significantly [2]. Impact on Industry Growth - Short-term sales may experience a "stop-and-go" phenomenon due to channel dynamics, but the attractiveness of 2.5% priced products is diminishing [3]. - Long-term growth may face challenges for traditional insurance due to lower actual returns and liquidity, while participating insurance could see growth opportunities as floating returns may exceed those of traditional insurance [3]. Impact on Asset Allocation - Participating insurance has lower rigid cost liabilities and shorter effective durations compared to traditional insurance, allowing for more flexibility in asset allocation [3]. - Changes in asset allocation will likely occur gradually in response to shifts in liability structures [3]. Company-Specific Impacts - Companies that have already transitioned to participating insurance are expected to adapt more quickly to these changes, benefiting from established sales channels and lower liability bases [4]. - The proactive shift towards participating insurance reflects a long-term operational strategy that is crucial for creating sustained value in the life insurance sector [4].

Macro News - The State Council, led by Premier Li Qiang, has initiated measures to gradually implement free preschool education, emphasizing the need for local governments to refine work plans and ensure timely funding allocation [4] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is soliciting public opinions on the revised Corporate Governance Code, which aims to enhance the supervision of directors and senior management, and improve incentive and restraint mechanisms [5][6] - The Ministry of Finance reported that in the first half of 2025, the national general public budget expenditure reached 14,127.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, while revenue decreased by 0.3% to 11,556.6 billion yuan [6] - The National Bureau of Statistics indicated that in June, the profit decline of industrial enterprises above designated size narrowed compared to May, with rapid profit growth in new momentum industries like equipment manufacturing [6] Industry News - The Insurance Association announced that the current standard interest rate for ordinary life insurance products is 1.99%, leading major life insurance companies to adjust their rates downwards [9] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, along with ten other departments, released a plan to promote agricultural product consumption, focusing on optimizing supply, innovating circulation, and activating market demand [9] - The China Pesticide Industry Association has launched a three-year campaign to address issues like hidden additives and illegal production in the pesticide industry, aiming to curb disorderly competition [9] - The Chinese government has proposed the establishment of a World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization, with Shanghai as a potential headquarters [10] - The Shanghai land auction set a new record for residential land prices, with a floor price of 200,257 yuan per square meter [11] Company News - China Duty Free Group reported a total revenue of 28.151 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 9.96%, with net profit down 20.81% to 2.6 billion yuan [14] - Huayou Cobalt announced plans to acquire a 49% stake in Wuhan Junheng Technology through a combination of stock issuance and cash payment, marking a significant asset restructuring [14] - Several companies, including *ST Muban and Taiyuan Heavy Industry, received notices from the CSRC regarding investigations into alleged financial misconduct and information disclosure violations [16][17] - Shijiazhuang Railway announced a cooperation agreement with the Guangzhou Municipal Government for the Guangzhou East Station renovation project, with a total investment of approximately 16.66 billion yuan [12]