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美联储暂停降息,鲍威尔发重要讲话
美股研究社· 2026-01-29 12:09
Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75%, marking the first pause in rate changes since July of the previous year [2][3][7]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Decision - The decision to pause interest rate changes was anticipated by the market, with futures indicating a probability of over 97% for no rate cut this week [7]. - The Federal Reserve has cut rates by a total of 175 basis points since September 2024, with the latest pause occurring after three consecutive meetings of rate cuts [7][8]. - The statement from the Federal Reserve showed a slight improvement in the economic outlook, removing previous language about increasing employment risks and indicating signs of stabilization in the unemployment rate [11][12]. Group 2: Internal Disagreements - There were internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, with two members voting against the decision to maintain rates, advocating for a 25 basis point cut [8][9]. - The dissenting votes were from Waller and Miran, both of whom support further rate cuts, which may influence Waller's chances of being nominated as the next Federal Reserve Chair [9][10]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve noted that economic activity is expanding steadily, with the unemployment rate showing signs of stabilization [12][16]. - Inflation remains slightly elevated, with the overall PCE price index rising by 2.9% year-over-year, and the core PCE index increasing by 4.3% [19]. - The labor market shows signs of cooling, with average monthly job growth around 22,000, reflecting a slowdown in labor supply growth [18][19]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Powell indicated that the impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to dissipate by mid-2026, suggesting potential for policy easing if tariff effects peak [23][24]. - The Federal Reserve is currently at the high end of the neutral interest rate range, with data indicating that policy may not be overly restrictive [20][21].
SIM模型:让并购资质“看得清、接得住、用得好”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-29 11:40
企业并购常被喻为"惊险一跃"。交易尘埃落定后,真正的挑战才浮出水面: 那张关键的"资格证",到底能不能用、怎么用、用得好吗? 资质基础评估,如同给目标公司的核心牌照做一次深度"体检"。核心任务是摸清其"DNA":它是什么?获取门槛多高?有效期与续期风险几何? 无数案例证明,看似合规的资质背后,往往暗藏整合陷阱与价值鸿沟。为此,我们提出SIM模型(资质基础 Standard、资质整合 Integration、资质匹配 Match),它是一套让资质在并购中真正创造价值的系统方法论。 【免责声明】 本文由北京明德蓝鹰投资咨询有限公司撰写,仅为行业研究与商业案例以及探讨市值管理问题之目的而分享,不构成任何投资建议。我们所采用的信息均来 自公开披露资料,但我们无法保证其完整性与准确性。文中所有对公司的提及均旨在进行技术、模式或竞争格局分析,绝非股票推荐。请您知悉,所有投资 决策均伴随风险。我们强烈建议您基于个人独立判断并寻求专业顾问的意见。请务必谨慎决策,风险自担。 不止于"有":为何传统评估失灵? 传统并购评估,常将资质视为静态的"资产清单"条目。只看"有没有",却忽略了三个致命问题:它本身健康吗?(基础)、能顺利变 ...
MSCI:将继续监测印尼市场的最新发展
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2026-01-29 11:29
格隆汇1月29日|明晟公司(MSCI):将继续监测印尼市场的最新发展,并与包括金融服务管理局和印尼 证券交易所在内的市场参与者和监管机构保持沟通;将根据需要进一步通报后续行动。 ...
美联储宣布维持利率不变 2026年首次降息或将推迟至6月
美国劳工部1月9日发布数据显示,2025年12月,美国新增5万个非农就业岗位,失业率为4.4%,较上月 下降0.2个百分点。白雪认为,最新公布的12月非农新增就业人数虽然继续小幅降温,但并未"失速", 这在一定程度上缓解了美联储对就业进一步走弱的担忧。 中经记者 谭志娟 北京报道 2026年1月29日凌晨,美联储结束为期两天的货币政策会议,宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.5% —3.75%不变。此举意味着,美联储在经历自2025年9月以来的连续三次降息后,本次选择按兵不动。 值得注意的是,在此次参与利率决策投票的12名票委中,美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰(Stephen Miran)和 克里斯托弗·沃勒(Christopher Waller)投出反对票,二人主张降息25个基点。 东方金诚研究发展部高级副总监白雪对《中国经营报》记者表示:"本次会议声明与鲍威尔讲话均显 示,美联储对当前经济形势更加乐观。这与近期经济、就业数据走势相印证,是本次会议暂停降息的主 要原因。" 记者注意到,本次声明删除了"就业风险增加"等表述,并指出经济形势有所改善,尤其在失业率上升方 面出现企稳迹象。这一变化在一定程度上暗示,美联储决 ...
香港证监会要求持牌法团全面配合视察 明确法定监管责任
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2026-01-29 11:04
Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) has criticized certain licensed corporations for obstructing its supervisory work during inspections, including attempts to delay or refuse inspections, providing incomplete responses, and submitting illegal or falsified documents [1][2] Group 1 - The SFC issued a circular reminding licensed corporations of their obligation to fully cooperate with the SFC and comply with statutory responsibilities, including being prepared for inspections and responding promptly to requests for information [1] - The SFC stated that any individual attempting to obstruct inspections will face decisive regulatory actions, which may include imposing conditions on the licenses of licensed corporations or restricting their business activities [1] - The SFC emphasized that concerns may be referred to other regulatory authorities in Hong Kong, mainland China, and overseas for potential joint regulatory actions [1] Group 2 - The SFC requires the core function supervisors responsible for overall management and supervision to actively fulfill their supervisory and leadership responsibilities during inspections, ensuring compliance with relevant regulations [2] - Any core function supervisor or individual attempting to obstruct the SFC's inspections will be held accountable and may face regulatory actions [2] - The SFC reminded licensed corporations to promptly notify the SFC if they require additional time to gather information and respond to inspection inquiries, providing a clear explanation and a new proposed timeline for approval [2]
凤凰投诉|网友投诉“微拍贷”:2018年爆雷后多年维权未果
用户在投诉中表示,上海佩辉金融管理有限公司的融资平台"微拍贷"于2018年爆雷,至今还有一大批浙 江湖州市安吉县的受害者在维权路上奔波。自己在向各方咨询求助无果后,不得不放弃了追回的念头并 因此患上抑郁型焦虑症,生活受到严重影响。 你是不是也曾遭遇过各种投资理财、购买保险的陷阱,却投诉无门?或手握第一线的真实投资故事,却 无人关注?扫码留言,让你的声音"被看见、被回应"! 凤凰投诉讯 1月29日,有网友投诉自"微拍贷"2018年爆雷后,多名受害者奔波多年仍未能维权成功。 ...
综述|美联储进入观望模式
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-29 10:14
新华社纽约1月29日电 综述|美联储进入观望模式 新华社记者刘亚南 由于美国宏观经济和就业指标有所改善,美国联邦储备委员会在28日结束的货币政策会议上决定维持利 率不变,再次进入观望模式。 美联储决策机构联邦公开市场委员会当天发布的公告显示,现有指标显示美国经济前景的不确定性仍在 高位。就业增长持续低迷,失业率有一些企稳迹象,通胀仍处较高水平。从通胀和就业形势看,暂时没 有继续降息的迫切性。当天的决定也与鲍威尔在2025年12月货币政策会议后释放将暂停降息的信号一 致。 鲍威尔在28日举行的记者会上表示,虽然新增就业岗位数量依然处于低位,但失业率已经显现出一些企 稳迹象,通胀则依然在一定程度上处于高位。 高盛集团资产管理部门固定收益和流动性解决方案业务全球共同负责人凯·黑格表示,美联储很可能会 暂停降息,但受通胀回落等因素影响,预计美联储将在今年晚些时候重启降息。 安永会计师事务所全球战略咨询部门首席经济学家格雷戈里·达科表示,由于劳动力市场基本面逐渐走 软,个人消费支出价格指数涨幅预计在上半年仅略低于3%并在年底降至2.5%,美联储今年首次降息很 可能不会早于6月。 达科预计美联储今年会降息50个基点。他认 ...
‌估值洼地引爆买盘!土耳其股市迎1997年以来最强1月
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2026-01-29 09:49
AI播客:换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 伊斯坦布尔100指数有望创下29年来最佳的1月表现 音频由扣子空间生成 受益于新兴市场乐观情绪蔓延及自身估值优势,外国投资者重新涌入土耳其股市,推动该国股市有望创下1997年以来的最佳1月表现。 以美元计价,伊斯坦布尔100指数1月至今已上涨19%,为1997年以来同期最佳表现。即便经历本轮上涨,以预期市盈率衡量,土耳其股市相较于其他 新兴市场股票仍存在显著估值折让。 土耳其股市的交易价格较新兴市场同类股票低约70% 去年,土耳其总统雷杰普・塔伊普・埃尔多安(Recep Tayyip Erdogan)对政治对手的打压令投资者恐慌,导致土耳其资产在新兴市场期待已久的反 弹行情中错失良机。如今,在美元走弱以及投资者寻求分散美国资产配置的推动下,土耳其股市正逐步缩小与其他新兴市场的差距。 阿塔投资管理公司首席执行官巴图汉・奥兹沙欣(Batuhan Ozsahin)表示:"在新兴市场需求旺盛的背景下,土耳其股市正迎头赶上,美元贬值交易 仍在强劲持续。" 土耳其央行数据显示,自去年12月初至今年1月16日,该国股市已吸引13.6亿美元的外资流入。贝莱德前沿市场投资信托基金目前将土耳 ...
华为与中金公司签署战略合作协议
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2026-01-29 09:31
Core Viewpoint - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) and Huawei Technologies Co., Ltd. have signed a strategic cooperation agreement to enhance collaboration in various sectors, focusing on digital finance and technology empowerment in finance [2] Group 1: Strategic Cooperation Areas - The agreement emphasizes collaboration in digital infrastructure construction, digital travel services, intelligent transformation, artificial intelligence applications, and the native Harmony ecosystem [2] - Both companies aim to engage in joint innovation, talent development, brand building, and ecosystem expansion [2] Group 2: Focus on Digital Finance - The partnership will specifically target advancements in digital finance, leveraging technology to enhance financial services [2] - There is a strong emphasis on deepening cooperation in the realm of digital financial solutions [2]
【快讯】每日快讯(2026年1月29日)
乘联分会· 2026-01-29 08:51
Domestic News - The first mandatory national standard for automotive driving assistance systems has been officially released, set to be implemented on January 1, 2028. This standard mandates that automatic emergency braking systems (AEB) become standard equipment in light vehicles, with a projected AEB system installation rate exceeding 60% for new passenger cars by 2025 [3] - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the manufacturing and sales revenue of new energy vehicles is expected to grow at an annual rate of 49.5%. In 2025, the manufacturing of new energy vehicles is projected to increase by 14.3%, while the clean energy power generation sector is expected to see a 17.3% revenue growth, accounting for 38.5% of total electricity production revenue, an increase of 6.9 percentage points from 2021 [4] - Xi'an has opened applications for a vehicle replacement subsidy for 2026, offering a maximum subsidy of 15,000 yuan for eligible consumers replacing old vehicles with new energy or fuel vehicles. The subsidy is set at 8% of the new vehicle sales price for new energy vehicles and 6% for fuel vehicles, with a cap of 15,000 yuan and 13,000 yuan respectively [5] - Lantu has announced its product plan for 2026, which includes four new models, all equipped with L3 autonomous driving capabilities. The first model, Lantu Taishan Ultra, is expected to be delivered in March 2026 [6][7] - BYD has launched the 5.0 version of its "Tianshen Eye" driving assistance system, featuring advanced reinforcement learning capabilities. By the end of last year, BYD had over 2.56 million vehicles equipped with this system, generating over 160 million kilometers of data daily [8] - Dongfeng's overseas version of the Nano 06 has been launched in Costa Rica, with 270 orders received during the launch event [9] - NIO has officially pushed the new version of its World Model (NWM), which includes a new urban navigation battery swap feature, supporting over 2,000 battery swap stations nationwide [10] - Alipay has partnered with Xiaomi to introduce a smart parking payment feature in Xiaomi's smart glasses, allowing users to pay for parking with voice commands or by scanning a parking code [11][12] International News - Malaysia has announced a vehicle scrappage subsidy program for cars older than 20 years, allowing owners to receive up to 8,000 ringgit in total for purchasing new vehicles after scrapping their old ones [13] - Thailand's automotive sales reached a two-year high in 2025, with total sales of 621,166 vehicles, an 8.5% increase from 2024. Electric vehicle sales accounted for 276,697 units, representing 45% of total sales [14] - Uber has established the AVLabs team to leverage its extensive real-world data from ride-hailing services to support the development of autonomous driving technology [15] - Volvo Financial Services has extended its partnership with Bank of America until 2030 to continue providing financing and leasing services to Volvo customers and dealers in the U.S. [16] Commercial Vehicles - The largest new energy heavy truck supercharging station in Hainan has been put into operation, with a total installed capacity of 8,000 kilowatts, enhancing the reliability and efficiency of the new energy heavy truck charging network in the province [18] - DAF has launched the XG Electric and XG+ Electric models, targeting the high-end transport market with spacious cabins designed for long-haul operations [19] - SANY Heavy Truck has partnered with Longxin Technology to create a comprehensive energy ecosystem for heavy trucks, aiming to alleviate long-distance charging anxiety [20] - BYD's T4 electric truck has surpassed 1,000 units in cumulative sales, gaining popularity in various urban distribution markets due to its low energy consumption and high reliability [21]