1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting to buy on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to move sideways [1] - Black building materials: Coking coal is suitable for short - term trading; rebar for range trading; glass is expected to be slightly bullish in a sideways trend [1] - Non - ferrous metals: Copper suggests holding long positions cautiously and holding a light position during holidays; aluminum advises more observation; nickel suggests observation or shorting on rallies; tin, gold, and silver are for range trading; lithium carbonate is expected to move in a range [1] - Energy and chemicals: PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are for range trading; caustic soda and soda ash suggest temporary observation; polyolefins are expected to be weakly bullish in a sideways trend [1] - Cotton textile industry chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be slightly bullish in a sideways trend; apples and jujubes are expected to move sideways [1] - Agriculture and animal husbandry: Live pigs suggest a short - selling strategy on rallies for near - term contracts and a cautious bullish view for far - term contracts; eggs suggest that breeding enterprises can hedge on rallies for the 02 contract; corn suggests caution on chasing highs in the short term and hedging on rallies for grain - holding entities; soybean meal suggests a bullish view on dips for near - term 03 contracts and a bearish view for far - term 05 contracts; oils suggest gradually closing long positions and caution on chasing highs [1] 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides investment suggestions for various futures products based on their market fundamentals, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors. It analyzes the influencing factors of each product, including policy changes, production and inventory levels, and market sentiment, and gives corresponding trading strategies [1] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - **Index futures**: They are expected to move sideways in the short term and be bullish in the medium to long term. The Chinese government's fiscal policy is positive, but industrial profit decline and market rotation may cause short - term fluctuations. Attention should be paid to trading volume changes [5] - **Treasury bonds**: They are expected to move sideways. The previous driving factors of the market are fading, and there is a lack of significant positive factors to drive a new trend. Attention should be paid to the strength changes between assets [5] Black building materials - **Coking coal**: It is expected to move sideways. The market is in a game between strong negative factors (high inventory of imported Mongolian coal, weak demand) and weak positive factors (domestic coal mine production cuts, cost support). Short - term trading is recommended [7] - **Rebar**: It is expected to move sideways. Futures prices are in a narrow range. The valuation is neutral, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant in the short term. Range trading is recommended [7] - **Glass**: It is expected to be slightly bullish in a sideways trend. Supply is expected to decrease due to production line closures, and there is short - term speculation opportunity around the New Year's Day. However, in the long term, the supply - demand situation is not conducive to a continuous price increase [9] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: It has reached a new high. It is expected to be high - level sideways before the New Year's Day holiday. It is bullish in the long term but there is a risk of short - term correction. Cautious long - holding and light - position holiday - holding are recommended [10] - **Aluminum**: It is in a rebound. The fundamentals are still weak, and it is expected to be high - level sideways. More observation is recommended [12] - **Nickel**: It is expected to move sideways. It is expected to be in a surplus situation in the long term. Observation or shorting on rallies is recommended [14] - **Tin**: It is expected to be bullish in a sideways trend. Supply is tight, and downstream demand is weak. Attention should be paid to overseas supply disturbances and downstream demand recovery [14] - **Silver**: It is expected to be bullish in a sideways trend. The price center is moving up. Holding long positions is recommended, and caution is needed for new positions [16] - **Gold**: It is expected to be bullish in a sideways trend. The price center is moving up. Range trading is recommended, and caution is needed for chasing highs [16] - **Lithium carbonate**: It is expected to move in a range. Supply and demand are in a state of balance. Attention should be paid to the impact of Yichun's mining permit issues on supply [17] Energy and chemicals - **PVC**: It is expected to be in a low - level sideways trend. The supply - demand situation is weak, and the price is supported by low valuation and potential policy and cost factors [17] - **Caustic soda**: It is expected to be in a low - level sideways trend. The fundamentals are weak, and short - term observation is recommended [19] - **Styrene**: It is expected to move sideways. The short - term is in a range - bound state, and the medium - to long - term depends on the improvement of cost and supply - demand patterns [19] - **Rubber**: It is expected to move sideways. The raw material price increase is limited, and the inventory is accumulating. There is a risk of price correction [21] - **Urea**: It is expected to move sideways. Supply and demand are both decreasing, and the price is in a wide - range fluctuation [22] - **Methanol**: It is expected to be weakly bullish in a sideways trend. Supply is increasing, downstream demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating [24] - **Polyolefins**: They are expected to be weakly bullish in a sideways trend. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and the upward pressure is large [25] - **Soda ash**: Temporary observation is recommended. The supply is in surplus, but the cost support is strong, and the downward space of the price is limited [26] Cotton textile industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: They are expected to be slightly bullish in a sideways trend. Global cotton production and consumption are adjusted, and the price is supported by stable consumption and policy expectations [28] - **Apples**: They are expected to move sideways. The market price of late - harvested Fuji apples in storage is stable, and the trading of farmers' goods is still in a stalemate [28] - **Jujubes**: They are expected to move sideways. The acquisition of gray jujubes in Xinjiang is almost finished, and the remaining supply is limited [28] Agriculture and animal husbandry - **Live pigs**: The near - term contracts are expected to be bearish on rallies, and the far - term contracts are cautiously bullish. The supply is increasing in the short term, and the price rebound is limited. In the long term, the price depends on the degree of production capacity reduction [30] - **Eggs**: The 02 contract is suitable for breeding enterprises to hedge on rallies. The short - term supply and demand are balanced, and the medium - to long - term supply pressure still exists [34] - **Corn**: It is expected to be weakly bullish in a sideways trend. The short - term price increase is limited, and the long - term demand is gradually recovering, but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [36] - **Soybean meal**: It is expected to move sideways. The near - term 03 contract is bullish on dips, and the far - term 05 contract is bearish [36] - **Oils**: The short - term rebound is limited, and caution is needed for chasing highs. The long - term trend depends on factors such as palm oil production reduction, biodiesel policies, and soybean supply [44]

Core Insights - China is set to become the first economy to pay interest on its central bank digital currency, with the new digital yuan framework starting on January 1, 2026, marking a transition from "digital cash" to "digital deposit currency" [10] - The People's Liberation Army has begun military exercises around Taiwan, indicating heightened geopolitical tensions in the region [10] - The State Council has announced a tariff adjustment plan for 2026, which includes temporary lower import tariffs on 935 items to enhance the synergy between domestic and international markets [10] - The automotive market in China is expected to see complex growth dynamics in 2026, influenced by early government subsidies and seasonal factors [11] - Hong Kong's private residential prices have increased for six consecutive months, suggesting a potential end to the downward trend since 2021 [11] - The global memory industry is expected to experience a prolonged "super cycle" due to strong demand for AI servers and enterprise SSDs, lasting at least until 2027 [11] - TSMC has commenced mass production of its 2nm technology, which is anticipated to be the most advanced semiconductor technology in terms of density and energy efficiency [12] Macroeconomic Insights - The A-share market shows mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly up by 0.04% while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.49% [14] - Industrial profits for large enterprises have shown a decline in growth rate as of November [14] - The central economic work conference emphasized the importance of stabilizing industrial growth and addressing "involution" competition [14][15] Commodity Insights - The steel market is expected to maintain a volatile trend, with iron ore prices under pressure due to weak demand from the real estate sector and slow construction progress [18][19] - The coal and coke prices may experience short-term fluctuations, influenced by production and safety inspections in coal mines [20][21] - The silicon metal market is facing pressure from the establishment of polysilicon platform companies, which may affect future production expectations [30] - The lithium carbonate market is showing signs of weakening demand, with expectations of inventory accumulation in the first quarter of 2026 [29] - The agricultural sector, particularly cotton and sugar, is experiencing mixed signals with supply pressures and seasonal demand fluctuations [33][35] Energy Sector Insights - Crude oil prices are expected to remain under pressure due to oversupply, despite geopolitical tensions in regions like Ukraine and the Middle East [46] - Fuel oil prices are influenced by geopolitical factors and are expected to follow crude oil price trends [47] - The plastic market is facing supply pressures, with expectations of weak demand impacting prices [48]

2025年12月30日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：高位反复 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宏观托底产业压制，钢价维持区间震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宏观托底产业压制，钢价维持区间震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：市场信息扰动，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：市场信息扰动，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：四轮提降开启，震荡反复 | 7 | | 焦煤：年底减产扰动，震荡反复 | 7 | | 原木：低位震荡 | 9 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 30 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | 期货 | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 1.72% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 796. 5 | 13.5 | | | | I 2605 | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | | | 629.681 | 48. 9 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 螺纹钢： 锰硅： 昨天螺纹盘面震荡偏强，截止日盘螺纹2605合约收盘价格为3130元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格上涨12元/ 吨，涨幅为0.38%，持仓减少0.36万手。现货价格稳中有涨，成交回升，唐山地区迁安普方坯价格持平 于2940元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格上涨10元/吨至3240元/吨，全国建材成交量11.78万吨。据钢银数 据，本周全国建材库存下降8.16%至311.63万吨，热卷库存下降2.93%至199.29万吨。建材库存维持大幅 下降趋势，热卷库存降幅有所收窄。全国财政工作会议明确明年继续实施更加积极的财政政策，扩大财 政支出盘子，同时提高政策精准度和有效性。2026年财政政策有望继续发力加码，对基建投资增速有一 定的向上提振预期，在一定程度上提升市场信心。不过1月开始钢厂或将逐渐复产，叠加需求的季节性 走弱特点，后期供需驱动依然向下。预计短期螺纹盘面仍窄幅整理运行为主。 铁矿石： 昨日铁矿石期货主力合约i2605价格有所上涨，收于796.5元/吨，较前一个交易日收盘价上涨13.5元/吨， 涨幅为1.7%，成交46万手，增仓4.9万 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese pre-hardened high-speed tool steel industry is experiencing growth, with a market size projected to reach 3.1 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.7% [1][7] - This growth is driven by the rapid development of key downstream industries such as automotive manufacturing, aerospace, and mold manufacturing, which significantly increases the demand for high-performance tool steel [1][7] - The "Made in China 2025" initiative and related plans for high-quality manufacturing development are creating a favorable environment for the growth of the pre-hardened high-speed tool steel industry [1][7] - The market size is expected to continue growing, reaching 3.5 billion yuan by 2025 [1][7] Industry Overview - Pre-hardened high-speed tool steel is a type of high-speed tool steel that has undergone special heat treatment to achieve a specific hardness before manufacturing, simplifying processing and reducing deformation risks [3] - The industry supply chain includes upstream resources such as iron ore and strategic metals, midstream production, and downstream applications in automotive, aerospace, mold manufacturing, and energy equipment [4][5] Market Dynamics - The production of iron ore in China has been increasing, from 84.4 million tons in 2019 to 104.2 million tons in 2024, although a slight decline of 3.2% was noted in early 2025 [6] - The automotive sector is a significant application area for pre-hardened high-speed tool steel, with production and sales of automobiles in China rising from 25.7 million units in 2019 to 31.3 million units in 2024, indicating a growing demand for automotive components [6][7] Competitive Landscape - The industry features a diverse competitive landscape, with leading companies like Baosteel and Ansteel holding significant market positions due to their strong R&D capabilities and brand influence [8] - Baosteel, a key player, reported a revenue of 232.4 billion yuan in the first nine months of 2025, with a net profit of 7.96 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year profit increase of 35.32% [9] Future Trends - The pre-hardened high-speed tool steel industry is expected to adapt to raw material price fluctuations and international trade uncertainties by enhancing supply chain resilience [10] - The industry is also expanding into new applications beyond traditional sectors, such as renewable energy and high-end medical products, indicating a diversification of market opportunities [10]

Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Morning Report - Report Date: December 30, 2025 [1] Price Information Ferrosilicon - Latest prices of natural lump ferrosilicon in different regions: Ningxia 72 at 5250, Inner Mongolia 72 at 5270, Qinghai 72 at 5250, Shaanxi 72 at 5220, Shaanxi 75 at 5650 [2] - Latest prices of qualified lump ferrosilicon: Jiangsu 72 at 5700, Tianjin 72 at 5750 [2] - Export prices of ferrosilicon in Tianjin: 72 at 1020 (USD), 75 at 1070 (USD) [2] - Changes in ferrosilicon prices: Some prices have weekly changes, e.g., Ningxia 72 up 30, Inner Mongolia 72 up 20 [2] - Basis, spreads, and price differences: Such as the main - month basis at - 126, 1 - 5 month spread at - 98, etc. [2] Silicomanganese - Latest factory - ex prices in different regions: Inner Mongolia 6517 at 5590, Ningxia 6517 at 5520, Guangxi 6517 at 5700, etc. [2] - Latest trader prices: Ningxia 6517 at 5520, Jiangsu 6517 at 5750 [2] - Changes in silicomanganese prices: Some prices have weekly changes, e.g., Inner Mongolia 6517 up 40, Ningxia 6517 down 20 [2] - Basis, spreads, and price differences: Such as the main - month basis at 28, 1 - 5 month spread at - 68, etc. [2] Supply - related Information Ferrosilicon - Production volume and capacity utilization data are presented in long - term trends, including 136 - company monthly production, weekly production of 136 companies (95% capacity), and monthly capacity utilization in different regions [4] Silicomanganese - Weekly production volume data and long - term trends are shown [6] Demand - related Information Ferrosilicon - Data on export prices, import prices, and related demand - side indicators such as steel production forecasts and metal magnesium production are presented in long - term trends [3][4] Silicomanganese - Data on demand in China (in million tons) and related demand - side indicators like steel production forecasts are presented in long - term trends [4][7] Inventory - related Information Ferrosilicon - Inventory data of 60 sample enterprises in China and different regions, as well as warehouse receipt and effective forecast data, are presented in long - term trends [5] Silicomanganese - Warehouse receipt, effective forecast, and inventory data, as well as inventory average available days in China, are presented in long - term trends [7] Cost - profit - related Information Ferrosilicon - Data on electricity prices in different regions, market prices of raw materials like semi - coke, semi - coke production profit, and ferrosilicon production cost and profit in different regions are presented in long - term trends [5] Silicomanganese - Data on raw material prices such as chemical coke and manganese ore, and silicomanganese production profit in different regions are presented in long - term trends [6][7]

黑色建材日报 2025-12-30 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3130 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 12 元/吨（0.384%）。当日注册仓单 55616 吨, 环比减少 4826 吨。主力合约持仓量为 153.0792 万手，环比减少 3632 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇 总价格为 3170 元/吨, 环比增加 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3300 元/吨, 环比增加 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力 合约收盘价为 3287 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 4 元/吨（0.121%）。 当日注册仓单 104588 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 12 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年12月30日08时18分 报告导读： 供需方面，上周的数据显示螺纹热卷产量回升 ，五大品种总产量环比回落，整体库存继续回落。螺纹表观需求有所下降，热卷的表观需求回升，五 大品种表观需求整体回落，市场仍处于供需双弱的状态。由于钢厂毛利大幅回落，且消费高峰已过，钢厂产量有望继续缓慢下降。最近几天煤焦价 格大幅反弹，对盘面成本支撑有所抬升。整体来看，在消费淡季，供需双弱，冬储仍需要一段时间才能到来，宏观面信心增强，期价有望维持震荡 上行的走势。从技术上看，在日 K 线图上，05 合约短暂跌破震荡区间后快速反弹 ，目前没有摆脱近期的震荡区间，也没有形成向下的突破。 操作建议： 多单继续持有，中线交易 | 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3130 | 12 | 0.38% | 4 | 0.13% ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not available 2. Core Viewpoints - Not available 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Profit - The report presents the daily spot prices of various steel products from December 23 to 29, 2025, including Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, Xi'an, Guangzhou, and Wuhan's rebar prices, as well as Tianjin, Shanghai, and Lecong's hot-rolled and cold-rolled coil prices [1] Output and Inventory - Not available Basis and Spread - Not available

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, although there is uncertainty at the end of the year due to some funds cashing in profits, the long - term view is to go long on dips as the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged [4]. - For treasury bonds, in the short - term, the bond market is expected to fluctuate under the background of weak domestic demand and institutional behavior disturbances, and a quick - in - quick - out strategy is suitable [7]. - For precious metals, they are in an accelerating upward phase, but may face short - term corrections in January next year. It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - For non - ferrous metals, different metals have different supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, copper and aluminum have relatively strong price support, while zinc and lead may be affected by the departure of long positions [11][13]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom, and the iron ore price is expected to run within the oscillation range [31][34]. - For energy chemicals, the strategies for different products vary. For example, for crude oil, a low - buy - high - sell strategy is maintained with short - term waiting and seeing [52]. - For agricultural products, different products also have different price trends and trading strategies. For example, for live pigs, a strategy of short - term long and long - term short is recommended [75]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: The State Administration for Market Regulation deployed key tasks for 2026, including anti - monopoly work; from January to November, the operating income of state - owned enterprises increased by 1.0% year - on - year, and the total profit decreased by 3.1% year - on - year; tobacco advertising and business promotion expenses of tobacco enterprises cannot be deducted; the auction electricity price of the largest power grid operator in the United States may double [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although there is uncertainty at the end of the year, the long - term view is to go long on dips as policy support remains unchanged [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Monday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all declined. From January to November, the operating income of state - owned enterprises increased by 1.0% year - on - year, and the total profit decreased by 3.1% year - on - year. The National Development and Reform Commission held a private enterprise symposium [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted a 4823 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation on Monday, with a net investment of 4150 billion yuan [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The bond market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and a quick - in - quick - out strategy is suitable [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold and silver prices fell. Trump's remarks on the Fed and the selection of the new Fed chair have an impact on market expectations, and international silver prices hit a new high [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Precious metals may face short - term corrections in January next year, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: After the sharp adjustment of precious metals, copper prices rose and then fell sharply. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic social inventory increased [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of copper mines is tight, and the price support is strong. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 95,500 - 99,000 yuan/ton [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: After the sharp adjustment of precious metals, aluminum prices rose and then fell. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories increased, and LME aluminum inventory decreased [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price support is strong. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 22,200 - 22,600 yuan/ton [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose slightly. LME zinc inventory and domestic social inventory decreased [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc industry's fundamentals are weak, and the departure of long positions may impact prices [15]. Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index fell slightly. LME lead inventory increased, and domestic social inventory increased slightly [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand of lead is weak, and the departure of long positions may impact prices [16]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rose and then fell. The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron rose [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The excess pressure of nickel is still large, but the short - term bottom may have appeared. It is recommended to wait and see [17]. Tin - **Market Information**: The Shanghai tin main contract price fell. The supply of tin ore was tight, and the demand was weak. The inventory increased [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 300,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of lithium carbonate fell. The contract decreased its position significantly [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see or try light - position call options. The reference range for the 2605 contract is 112,100 - 122,500 yuan/ton [21]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index fell. The spot price was at a discount, and the futures inventory decreased [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2602 is 2400 - 2900 yuan/ton [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract price fell. The spot price was stable, and the inventory decreased [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to policy implementation [25]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of the casting aluminum alloy main contract rose. The inventory decreased [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [28]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rose slightly. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil decreased [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Steel prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom, and the winter storage willingness is weak [31]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore main contract price rose. The spot price was at a premium, and the inventory increased [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The iron ore price is expected to run within the oscillation range, and attention should be paid to market sentiment [34]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Information**: The glass main contract price rose. The inventory increased, and the trading volume decreased [35]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass market is expected to be weak in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [35]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: The soda ash main contract price rose. The inventory decreased, and the trading volume decreased [36]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand contradiction of soda ash has not been significantly alleviated, and the market rebound is limited [36]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures rose slightly. The spot prices were at a premium [37]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future market trend is affected by the black sector and cost factors. Attention should be paid to manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [39]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon futures main contract price fell. The spot price was stable, and the inventory increased [40]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price is expected to fluctuate with the market, and attention should be paid to new supply disturbances in the northwest [41]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The polysilicon futures main contract price fell. The spot price was stable, and the inventory decreased [42]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Under strong supervision, the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to spot transactions [44]. Energy Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices fluctuated weakly. The tire start - up rate was slightly worse, and the inventory increased [46]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see and partially close the hedging position [50]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The INE main crude oil futures price fell. The inventories of refined oil products had different changes [51]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A low - buy - high - sell strategy is maintained, and short - term waiting and seeing are recommended [52]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of methanol fell, and the main futures contract price was stable [53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The methanol market is expected to be sorted out at a low level, and it is recommended to wait and see [54]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of urea were stable, and the main futures contract price was stable [55]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The urea market is expected to build a bottom in an oscillating manner, and it is recommended to go long on dips [56]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The pure benzene spot and futures prices were stable, and the styrene spot price rose while the futures price fell [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [58]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract price fell. The supply was strong, and the demand was weak [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go short on rallies in the medium - term [61]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract price fell. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [62]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand pattern needs to be improved by increasing production cuts, and the valuation needs to be compressed in the medium - term [63]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract price fell. The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The inventory decreased [64]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory accumulation stage after short - term de - stocking. Pay attention to the callback risk in the short - term and the opportunity to go long on dips in the medium - term [66]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract price fell. The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The inventory increased [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PX is expected to maintain a small inventory accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. Pay attention to the callback risk in the short - term and the opportunity to go long on dips in the medium - term [68]. Polyethylene PE - **Market Information**: The PE futures price fell, and the spot price rose. The supply was stable, and the demand was weak [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [70]. Polypropylene PP - **Market Information**: The PP futures price fell, and the spot price was stable. The supply was stable, and the demand was weak [71]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year [72]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price mainly rose. The supply and demand were in a complex state [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot price may be strong in the short - term, and it is recommended to short after the near - month rebound [75]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price was mainly stable. The supply was sufficient, and the demand was weak [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to short on rallies in the near - term and pay attention to the long - term pressure [78]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The CBOT soybean price fell. The domestic soybean and meal inventories were large, and the demand was weak [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The soybean meal price is expected to oscillate [80]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The Malaysian palm oil production and export data changed. The domestic palm oil inventory was high, and the rapeseed oil inventory decreased [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to observe high - frequency data and conduct short - term operations [83]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell. The domestic and international sugar production and import data changed [84]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The international sugar price may rebound after February next year, and the domestic sugar price may continue to rebound in the short - term [86]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price fell. The domestic cotton production increased, and the import was restricted [87]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait for a callback and then go long [89].