Core Viewpoint - Shipping stocks experienced a significant increase in early trading, driven by the announcement of new regulations regarding port service fees for U.S. vessels by China's Ministry of Transport [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Yang Ming Marine Transport Corp (德翔海运) rose by 3.9%, trading at HKD 8.53 [1] - COSCO Shipping Holdings (中远海发) increased by 3.6%, trading at HKD 1.15 [1] - Orient Overseas International (东方海外国际) saw a rise of 2.68%, trading at HKD 126.3 [1] - Seaspan Corporation (海丰国际) gained 2.54%, trading at HKD 29.82 [1] - COSCO Shipping Ports (中远海运港口) increased by 1.06%, trading at HKD 5.72 [1] Group 2: Regulatory Changes - On October 14, the Ministry of Transport released the "Implementation Measures for Special Port Service Fees for U.S. Vessels," which includes ten articles detailing the fee structure and exemptions [1] - The measures specify that vessels built in China, empty vessels only entering Chinese shipyards for repairs, and other exempted vessels will not be required to pay the fees [1] Group 3: Market Implications - Huatai Securities noted that the fee standards align closely with U.S. policies, with mutual port fees set to take effect on October 14, 2025 [1] - In the short term, shipping companies may adjust global vessel deployments and port calls to mitigate costs, potentially disrupting supply chains and increasing freight rates [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, there is a risk of increased volatility in global major asset classes. Investors are advised to maintain a strategic allocation to precious metals such as gold and be relatively cautious about risk assets such as equities next week. In the medium - term of the fourth quarter, the basic allocation view of equities > commodities > bonds is still held, and attention can be paid to potential buying opportunities for equity assets after the turmoil subsides [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: This week, focus on the new tariff threats from Trump and the marginal changes in the US government shutdown. There is a risk of further escalation of conflicts before the APEC meeting at the end of October. If the US government shutdown exceeds 30 days, it will increase the recession risk [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: China will gradually enter the period of focusing on the "15th Five - Year Plan" and tracking incremental policies. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will be held from October 20th to 23rd, and the market may start to pay attention to medium - and long - term marginal changes in the next five years. The progress and effectiveness of a batch of incremental policies such as 500 billion new policy - based financial instruments are also worth tracking [6]. - **Asset Views**: Maintain a strategic allocation to precious metals such as gold. Be cautious about risk assets such as equities next week. In the fourth - quarter medium - term, hold the view of equities > commodities > bonds and watch for buying opportunities in equity assets after the turmoil [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Catalyzed by technology events, the growth style is active. With crowded funds in small - cap stocks, the short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward movement [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: The overall market trading volume has slightly declined. With the risk of insufficient liquidity in the options market, the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market continues to be weak. Affected by factors such as policy, fundamental repair, and tariffs, the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold/Silver**: Driven by dovish expectations, with the restart of the US interest - rate cut cycle in September and increased risks to the Fed's independence, the short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward movement [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping Sector - **Container Shipping to Europe**: As the peak season in the third quarter fades, the load is under pressure and there is a lack of upward momentum. Pay attention to the rate of freight decline in September, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials Sector - **Steel Products**: Poor demand and policy disturbances. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as special bond issuance progress, steel exports, and iron - water production need to be monitored [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The fundamentals are relatively stable, but macro disturbances are increasing. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to factors such as overseas mine production and shipment, domestic iron - water production, and policy dynamics [7]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increases has been implemented, and the market is temporarily stable. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as steel - mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment need to be watched [7]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply decreased during the holiday, and downstream replenishment slowed down. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as steel - mill production, coal - mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment should be monitored [7]. - **Silicon Iron**: Supply pressure is gradually accumulating, and cost support is strong. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as raw material costs and steel procurement need to be considered [7]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Cost support still exists, but supply and demand are loose, and prices are under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as cost prices and foreign quotes should be watched [7]. - **Glass**: Supply concerns have eased, and intermediate inventories are high. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and spot production and sales need to be monitored [7]. - **Soda Ash**: Production has slightly decreased, and inventories are continuously being transferred. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and soda - ash inventories should be watched [7]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector - **Copper**: The supply - side contraction logic continues to ferment, and copper prices continue to be strong. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward movement, and factors such as supply disturbances, domestic policies, and Fed policies need to be monitored [7]. - **Alumina**: The fundamentals are still weak, and the upward price is under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as ore resumption and electrolytic - aluminum resumption need to be watched [7]. - **Aluminum**: Boosted by macro sentiment, aluminum prices are volatile and strong. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as macro risks and supply disturbances need to be monitored [7]. - **Zinc**: Inventory has returned to accumulation, and zinc prices rebound with non - ferrous metals. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as macro risks and zinc - ore supply need to be watched [7]. - **Lead**: With supply - side disturbances and slow battery exports, lead prices rebound with non - ferrous metals. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as supply - side disturbances and battery exports need to be monitored [7]. - **Nickel**: The expectation of loose supply and demand remains unchanged, and RKAB quota progress is fluctuating. Nickel prices are widely volatile. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as macro and geopolitical changes and Indonesian policies need to be watched [7]. - **Stainless Steel**: Driven by the rise in nickel prices, stainless steel prices are volatile and rising. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as Indonesian policies and demand growth need to be monitored [7]. - **Tin**: Supply disturbances continue, and tin prices are volatile at high levels. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as the resumption of production in Wa State and demand improvement need to be watched [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The restart rhythm of coal and northwest production is fluctuating, and industrial - silicon prices are volatile. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as supply - side over - reduction and photovoltaic installation need to be monitored [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The expectation of production suspension has ended, and lithium - carbonate prices are under pressure and volatile. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as demand and supply disturbances need to be watched [7]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: Affected by macro disturbances, the fundamentals are under continuous pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitical situations need to be monitored [8]. - **LPG**: Supply is still in excess, and the low - valuation situation is difficult to change. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as crude - oil and overseas propane costs need to be watched [8]. - **Asphalt**: Spot prices are continuously falling, and asphalt futures prices are also falling. The short - term trend is expected to be a downward movement, and factors such as sanctions and supply disturbances need to be monitored [8]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: With the expectation of increased production and geopolitical cooling, high - sulfur fuel - oil futures prices are falling. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as geopolitics and crude - oil prices need to be watched [8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the decline of crude oil. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and crude - oil prices need to be monitored [8]. - **Methanol**: Affected by olefins but with Iranian disturbances still existing, pay attention to arbitrage opportunities between methanol and olefins. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as macro energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics need to be watched [8]. - **Urea**: After the holiday, there are insufficient positive factors, and the short - term weakness continues. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as the improvement of Sino - Indian relations and export expectations need to be monitored [8]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The fundamentals have weak support and the macro sentiment is pessimistic, so prices are under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as coal and oil prices, port inventory rhythm, and Sino - US trade frictions need to be watched [8]. - **PX**: Cost collapse drags down the valuation of chemical products. In a situation where supply and demand are both strong, the benefits are mainly volatile. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as large - scale fluctuations in crude oil, macro abnormalities, and PTA device restarts need to be monitored [8]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand expectation has slightly improved, but costs and macro sentiment have a significant drag, so prices are under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as large - scale fluctuations in crude oil, macro abnormalities, and the peak - season performance need to be watched [8]. - **Short - Fiber**: Costs drag down the absolute price, but the processing fee remains stable under stable supply and demand. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as downstream yarn - mill purchasing rhythm and peak - season demand need to be monitored [8]. - **Bottle Chip**: The raw - material cost support is weak, and the low - level speculative replenishment demand supports the bottle - chip processing - fee profit. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as bottle - chip enterprise production - reduction target implementation and terminal demand need to be watched [8]. - **Propylene**: Cost decline and the resurgence of tariff games lead to a weak and volatile PL. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as oil prices and domestic macro factors need to be monitored [8]. - **PP**: The raw - material end collapses and there are tariff disturbances, so PP prices are falling. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as oil prices and domestic and foreign macro factors need to be watched [8]. - **Plastic**: Oil prices have significantly declined, and plastic prices are weak and volatile. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as oil prices and domestic and foreign macro factors need to be monitored [8]. - **Styrene**: Inventory pressure is still high, and styrene prices are weak and volatile. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as oil prices, macro policies, and device dynamics need to be watched [8]. - **PVC**: There is still fundamental pressure, and PVC prices are volatile. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as expectations, costs, and supply need to be monitored [8]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price can be stopped for profit at low levels. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as market sentiment, production start - up, and demand need to be watched [8]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Sector - **Oils and Fats**: Pay attention to the effectiveness of the lower - level technical support. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data need to be monitored [8]. - **Protein Meal**: The sentiment boost is limited, and the market continues to be volatile at a low level. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as weather, domestic demand, and trade wars need to be watched [8]. - **Corn/Starch**: The pressure of selling new grain is coming, and the spot price drives the futures price to decline significantly. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as demand, macro factors, and weather need to be monitored [8]. - **Pig**: The planned October slaughter volume is increasing, and pig prices are under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies need to be watched [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: Although the negative factors have not been realized, the market sentiment remains weak. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as production - area weather, raw - material prices, and macro changes need to be monitored [8]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The range - bound pattern remains unchanged. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as large - scale fluctuations in crude oil need to be watched [8]. - **Cotton**: The decline of cotton prices has slowed down. Pay attention to the purchase price. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as demand and inventory need to be monitored [8]. - **Sugar**: Both domestic and foreign sugar prices are weak. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as imports and Brazilian production need to be watched [8]. - **Pulp**: The game of the virtual - to - real ratio may cause intraday fluctuations, but the effectiveness needs to be observed. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as macro - economic changes and US - dollar - denominated quotes need to be monitored [8]. - **Double - Glued Paper**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is volatile. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as production and sales, education policies, and paper - mill production start - up need to be watched [8].

相关新闻 10/13 哈马斯已释放全部以方在世被扣押人员。 10/14 加沙停火协议文件在埃及签署。当地时间10月13日，美国、埃及、卡塔尔和土耳其在埃及沙姆沙伊赫签署了关于加沙停火协议的文 件。由埃及主办的沙姆沙伊赫"和平峰会"当晚开幕。峰会由埃及总统塞西和美国总统特朗普共同主持。据悉，以色列总理内塔尼亚胡在会 前最后―刻确认参加，后取消行程。 巴勒斯坦伊斯兰抵抗运动（哈马斯）未派代表与会。 注:XSI-C指数延迟三个工作日公布。 EC期货合约价格走势 EC远期曲线 2100 1800 1900 1700 1600 1700 1500 0 1500 1400 1300 1300 1100 1200 1100 900 1000 2510 25 12 2602 2606 现货价格 2025/9/9 2025/9/15 2025/9/22 •2025/10/13 集运星报 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/10/14 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | है लेके EC2510 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the transportation industry [3][5]. Core Views - The express delivery sector is expected to see performance recovery due to the "anti-involution" policies, while the mutual port fees imposed by China and the U.S. are likely to drive shipping rates upward [1][2]. - The shipping industry is facing mixed impacts from the U.S. port fee measures, with over 40% of shipping capacity affected by U.S. fees, while the impact on Chinese shipping capacity is significantly lower [1][20]. - The aviation sector is projected to experience a gradual recovery in ticket prices and profitability as the domestic passenger market continues to optimize supply and demand dynamics [2][34]. - The express delivery industry is witnessing a significant price increase across major production areas, with expectations for this trend to continue through the end of the year [2][43]. Shipping Sector Summary - The implementation of mutual port fees between China and the U.S. is expected to create short-term price volatility, particularly affecting oil and dry bulk shipping more than container shipping [1][20]. - The oil shipping rates have shown a significant increase recently, with VLCC shipping rates rising due to concerns over port congestion and supply chain efficiency [1][20]. - The overall impact of the mutual port fees on shipping rates is limited, but initial chaos from policy implementation may lead to fluctuations [20][21]. Aviation Sector Summary - Domestic passenger flight volumes have decreased slightly post-holiday, but overall traffic remains above 2019 levels [2][33]. - The average domestic ticket price has remained stable, with a slight year-on-year increase [2][34]. - The aviation market is expected to see continued improvement in profitability as supply-demand gaps narrow [34]. Express Delivery Sector Summary - The "anti-involution" policy has led to price increases across approximately 90% of the express delivery volume in China, with expectations for sustained price stability [2][43]. - The report highlights the potential for improved profitability in the express delivery sector during the fourth quarter due to seasonal demand [2][43]. - Major express companies are expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" policies, with specific recommendations for companies like SF Express and ZTO Express [5][54]. Key Company Ratings and Predictions - COSCO Shipping Energy: Outperform, 2025E PE of 12.2 [6]. - SF Express: Outperform, 2025E PE of 17.4, with expected growth of 15-20% in 2026 [6][54]. - ZTO Express: Outperform, with a focus on long-term value and stable returns [5][54].

10月14日，中远海控盘中上涨2.01%，截至09:39，报14.73元/股，成交2.76亿元，换手率0.15%，总市值 2281.64亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流入1137.69万元，特大单买入3601.86万元，占比13.06%，卖出3250.39万 元，占比11.79%；大单买入6216.03万元，占比22.54%，卖出5429.81万元，占比19.69%。 中远海控今年以来股价涨1.80%，近5个交易日涨3.37%，近20日跌3.28%，近60日跌3.91%。 资料显示，中远海运控股股份有限公司位于上海市东大名路658号，成立日期2007年1月5日，上市日期 2007年6月26日，公司主营业务涉及国际、国内海上集装箱运输服务及相关业务。主营业务收入构成 为：集装箱航运业务96.06%，码头业务5.35%。 分红方面，中远海控A股上市后累计派现1106.02亿元。近三年，累计派现909.48亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年6月30日，中远海控十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第五大流 通股东，持股4.42亿股，相比上期增加8755.75万股。华夏上证50ETF（510050）位居第八大流 ...

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission will hold a press conference to discuss the achievements of grain circulation reform during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1] - Microsoft has stopped providing security updates and technical support for Windows 10, increasing the risk of cyberattacks for users [2] - A total of 2.15 billion yuan worth of restricted shares will be unlocked today, with major contributions from Zhaoyi Innovation and Dingyang Technology [3] Group 2 - 15 companies have disclosed their stock repurchase progress, with significant amounts proposed by several firms, including China Merchants Industry and Jiuan Medical [4] - Economic data such as the Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index and the UK's unemployment rate for September will be released [5]

14日，交通运输部发布《对美船舶收取船舶特别港务费实施办法》。 《办法》共十条，自发布之日起施行，主要包括制定依据、收取范围、收取标准、收取主体、缴费航次、缴费要求、信息核实、违规处理、动态调整、解 释部门和施行时间等内容，进一步明确了由中国建造的船舶、仅进入中国船厂修理的空载船舶，以及其他经认定予以豁免的船舶免予缴纳的具体规定。 《办法》对于船方或其代理人在船舶预抵中国港口前向海事管理机构通报信息等提出了具体要求。《办法》明确收取范围、标准和起讫时间等将视情动态 调整。 具体如下： （三）美国的企业、其他组织和个人直接或间接持有25%及以上股权（表决权、董事会席位）的企业、其他组织拥有或运营的船舶； （四）悬挂美国旗的船舶； （五）在美国建造的船舶。 前款第一项至第四项中由中国建造的船舶免于缴纳。仅进入中国船厂修理的空载船舶，以及其他经认定予以豁免的船舶免予缴纳。 第三条 船舶特别港务费的具体收取标准如下（不足1净吨的按1净吨计）： （一）自2025年10月14日起靠泊中国港口的，按每净吨400元人民币计收； 同一艘船舶，一年内收取船舶特别港务费不超过5个航次。每年4月17日为年度计费周期起始日。 第四条 ...

Core Viewpoint - China COSCO Shipping Holdings Co., Ltd. plans to repurchase A-shares worth up to 1.498 billion RMB to enhance shareholder value and investor confidence due to its stock price being below the net asset value per share [1][2] Group 1: Repurchase Details - The repurchase will involve buying back between 50 million to 100 million shares, representing approximately 0.32% to 0.65% of the total share capital [1] - The maximum repurchase price is set at 14.98 RMB per share, with a total expenditure cap of 1.498 billion RMB [1] - The implementation period for the repurchase is three months from the board's approval, with provisions for adjustments if significant events occur [2] Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 109.1 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 7.78%, and a net profit of 17.54 billion RMB, up 3.95% [1] - As of October 13, the stock price was 14.44 RMB per share, with a total market capitalization of 223.7 billion RMB [1] Group 3: Shareholder Communication - The company has inquired with major shareholders regarding any plans to reduce their holdings in the next three to six months, receiving confirmations of no such plans [2] - In addition to the A-share repurchase, the company also intends to repurchase H-shares under a general authorization framework without needing further shareholder approval [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Transport of China has issued a notice regarding the implementation of a special port service fee for vessels from the United States, aimed at protecting China's shipping industry interests in response to U.S. trade measures [6][7]. Group 1: Background - The implementation of the special port service fee is a response to the U.S. Trade Representative's investigation into China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries, which will impose additional port service fees on Chinese-owned or operated vessels starting October 14, 2025 [7]. - This measure is seen as a legitimate action to safeguard the rights and interests of Chinese industries and enterprises, as well as to maintain fair competition in international shipping [7]. Group 2: Main Content - The "Implementation Measures for Special Port Service Fees for U.S. Vessels" consists of ten articles detailing the legal basis, scope of collection, collection standards, responsible entities, payment frequency, payment requirements, information verification, penalties for violations, dynamic adjustments, interpretation authority, and effective date [8]. - Vessels that are owned or operated by U.S. entities, or that are flagged or built in the U.S., are subject to the special port service fee, while certain exemptions apply to vessels built in China or those that only enter Chinese shipyards for repairs [2][8]. - The fee structure is set to increase over time, starting at 400 RMB per net ton from October 14, 2025, and reaching 1120 RMB per net ton by April 17, 2028 [3][8].

Core Viewpoint - The International Maritime Organization (IMO) is holding a special MEPC meeting from October 14 to 17 to review and vote on the "Net Zero Framework," with significant support and opposition from various countries and organizations [1] Group 1: Support and Opposition - Seven national shipowner associations, including those from Japan, the UK, Belgium, and Norway, have expressed strong support for the "Net Zero Framework" [1] - Major international organizations such as the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) and the European Community Shipowners' Associations (ECSA) also support the framework [1] - Several prominent shipping groups have voiced opposition to the "Net Zero Framework" [1] Group 2: National Stance - The United States has taken a clear stance against the "Net Zero Framework," recently announcing five sanctions against countries that support the framework, including visa restrictions and port fees [1] Group 3: Implications of the Vote - If the "Net Zero Framework" is approved, there will be a rapid increase in global shipping emission reduction demands, leading to accelerated demand for green methanol [1] - Conversely, if the framework is not approved, regions may pursue their own emission reduction paths, potentially slowing the progress of emission reductions in the shipping industry [1]