铁合金早报 | | | | | | | | | | 2025/6/16 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 项目 | | 现货 | | 仓单 | | 盘面 | | | | | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 出厂价折盘面 | 最新 | | 日变化 | 周变化 | | 硅铁自然块 | 宁夏#72 | 5000 | 0 | -100 | 5260 | 主力合约 | 5192 | 26 | 88 | | | 内蒙#72 | 5050 | 0 | -100 | 5350 | 01合约 | 5162 | 22 | 56 | | 产区汇总价 | 青海#72 | 5050 | 0 | -100 | 5380 | 05合约 | 5186 | 10 | 64 | | | 陕西#72 | 5000 | 0 | -100 | 5300 | 09合约 | 5192 | 26 | 88 | | | 陕西#75 | 5600 | 0 | -150 | | 主力月基差 | 68 | -26 | -188 | | 硅铁合格块 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not specified in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply and demand pattern of silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy has expanded marginally recently, which may affect the futures market trends. Attention should be paid to the influence of macro - sentiment on commodity prices, and at the micro - level, continue to monitor the price changes of raw materials and the production rhythm of steel mills. Weather may affect the subsequent shipment and arrival of global manganese ore, so follow the subsequent shipment of manganese ore at South African ports this week [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overall Market Situation - This week, the alloy was affected by macro - sentiment disturbances, and its price fluctuated along with the black metal sector. Ignoring macro - factors, prices may continue to decline due to the downward movement of raw material prices and weak demand expectations. Domestically, the macro - situation is relatively stable with no signs of new policies. The previous optimistic expectations from China - US trade talks were disrupted by the Middle East situation, affecting commodity market sentiment. At the micro - level, demand is peaking, the off - season is coming, and if supply continues to expand, alloy prices may face more pressure [6]. 3.2 Silicon Ferroalloy 3.2.1 Supply - Silicon ferroalloy production this week was 95,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,200 tons, with a change rate of - 2.3%. The weekly operating rate was 31.35%, a decrease of 1.43 percentage points from last week. Some regions like Ningxia and Gansu have resumed production, but the resumption in Inner Mongolia has slowed down due to environmental protection factors [15]. 3.2.2 Demand - In terms of steel - making demand, the actual output of hot metal in downstream steel mills has decreased. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel enterprises this week was 90.58%, a decrease of 0.07 percentage points from last week, and the daily average hot metal output was 2,416,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 190,000 tons. In non - steel demand, the stainless - steel crude steel output in May was 3.017 million tons, a decrease of 77,000 tons from the previous month, and the planned output in June is expected to continue to contract. The total output of magnesium metal in May was 67,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.2%. The export volume of silicon ferroalloy in April was 38,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.8% [29]. 3.2.3 Inventory - As of June 13, the inventory of 60 silicon ferroalloy sample enterprises was 69,990 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,210 tons. The number of silicon ferroalloy warehouse receipts was 15,228, a week - on - week decrease of 348, and the inventory was 76,140 tons, with a slower destocking rate. In May, the average available days of silicon ferroalloy inventory in steel mills were 15.2 days, showing a decreasing trend in different regions [39]. 3.2.4 Profit - The profit of silicon ferroalloy has rebounded slightly, the cost is relatively stable, but the expected cost may move down later [43]. 3.3 Manganese Ferroalloy 3.3.1 Supply - Manganese ferroalloy production this week was 173,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,500 tons, with a change rate of 0.9%. The weekly operating rate was 35.3%, an increase of 0.27 percentage points from last week. The main production area in Ningxia continued to resume production, while some small furnaces in Inner Mongolia and Guangxi were shut down for maintenance [47]. 3.3.2 Raw Materials - Overseas manganese ore producers' quotes have continued to decline, and the port manganese ore prices are fluctuating. The global manganese ore departure volume has decreased month - on - month, and the arrival volume has increased month - on - month, with high port demand [55][59][66]. 3.3.3 Demand - In terms of steel - making demand, the actual output of hot metal in downstream steel mills has decreased. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel enterprises this week was 90.58%, a decrease of 0.07 percentage points from last week, and the daily average hot metal output was 2,416,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 190,000 tons. The weekly output of rebar has decreased by 108,900 tons, weakening the demand support for manganese ferroalloy [72]. 3.3.4 Inventory - As of June 13, the inventory of 63 manganese ferroalloy sample enterprises was 195,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9,300 tons. The number of manganese ferroalloy warehouse receipts was 97,951, a week - on - week decrease of 3,061, and the inventory was 489,755 tons, with a slower destocking rate. In May, the average available days of manganese ferroalloy inventory in steel mills were 15.15 days, showing different trends in different regions [76][79]. 3.3.5 Profit - The cost support for manganese ferroalloy has weakened, and price competition at the ore end is emerging [83].

仓单 现货 盘面 品种 项目 铁合金早报 | | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 出厂价折盘面 | 最新 | | 日变化 | 周变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 硅铁自然块 | 宁夏#72 | 5000 | 0 | -130 | 5260 | 主力合约 | 5166 | -18 | -30 | | | 内蒙#72 | 5050 | -50 | -150 | 5350 | 01合约 | 5140 | -22 | 30 | | 产区汇总价 | 青海#72 | 5050 | 0 | -150 | 5380 | 05合约 | 5176 | -4 | 36 | | | 陕西#72 | 5000 | 0 | -150 | 5300 | 09合约 | 5166 | -18 | 64 | | | 陕西#75 | 5600 | 0 | -200 | | 主力月基差 | 94 | 18 | -100 | | 硅铁合格块 | 江苏#72 | 5280 | 0 | 0 | | 1-5月差 | -36 | -18 | -6 | ...

2025 年 6 月 13 日 资料来源：钢联、同花顺、国泰君安期货研究 硅铁：板块情绪共振，偏弱震荡 锰硅：矿企报价下移，偏弱震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 较前一交易日 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 硅铁2507 | 5276 | -22 | 25,220 | 60,785 | | 期 货 | 硅铁2509 | 5166 | -18 | 107,142 | 219,450 | | | 锰硅2507 | 5418 | -54 | 7,773 | 24,246 | | | 锰硅2509 | 5426 | -60 | 203,695 | 460,268 | | | 项 目 | | 价 格 | 较前一交易日 | 单 位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 硅铁 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that manganese silicon prices have rebounded from low levels due to improved market sentiment driven by the rebound in coking coal prices and positive developments in US-China trade negotiations [1][2] - The main factors contributing to the recovery of manganese silicon prices include the recent rebound in coking coal prices and the easing of trade risks between the US and China, which has led to a restoration of market expectations [2][3] Group 2 - Despite the price rebound, the fundamental demand for manganese silicon remains weak, with steel production gradually declining as the traditional off-season approaches, leading to a decrease in manganese silicon demand [2][3] - As of June 6, the operating rate of 247 steel mills was reported at 83.56%, with a capacity utilization rate of 90.65%, both showing a continuous decline over four weeks [2] - The weekly demand for manganese silicon from the five major steel products has decreased to 12.58 million tons, marking a 0.86% decline from the previous week and a 3.82% drop compared to the same period last year, indicating weak demand [2] Group 3 - The cost of manganese silicon is also under pressure due to declining prices of manganese ore and coke, with the potential for further cost reductions as electricity prices in major production areas are expected to decrease [4] - Manganese ore inventory at ports has increased to 4.202 million tons, reflecting a weak supply-demand balance, while the latest weekly delivery of manganese ore reached 677,800 tons, the second-highest level this year [4] Group 4 - The supply of manganese silicon remains low but stable, with the operating rate of 187 independent manganese silicon enterprises reported at 35.03%, marking a significant decline from previous highs [5][6] - The average daily output of manganese silicon has dropped to 24,555 tons, with the lowest operating rate recorded at 33.60%, the lowest since September 2022 [5] Group 5 - Despite the current low supply, high inventory levels at enterprises and the introduction of new production capacity may lead to an oversupply situation, limiting the positive impact of supply on prices [6] - Overall, while manganese silicon prices have seen a rebound due to improved market sentiment, the underlying supply-demand dynamics and declining costs suggest limited upward momentum, with prices expected to continue fluctuating at low levels [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy on June 12, 2025, the latest prices of Ningxia 72 and Inner Mongolia 72 are 5000 and 5100 respectively, with daily changes of 0 and -50, and weekly changes of -130 and -100 [2]. - The export prices of Tianjin 72 and Tianjin 75 silicon ferroalloy are 1055 and 1095 US dollars respectively, with no daily or weekly changes [2]. - For silicon manganese, the latest prices of Inner Mongolia 6517, Ningxia 6517, Guangxi 6517, Guizhou 6517, and Yunnan 6517 are 5430, 5380, 5500, 5450, and 5450 respectively, with weekly changes of 30, 80, 50, 50, and 50 [2]. Supply - The production data of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including monthly and weekly production and capacity utilization rates in different regions [4][5]. - The production data of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 are also shown, including weekly production and enterprise - wide capacity utilization rates [7]. Demand - The demand - related data such as the estimated production of crude steel in China, the production of stainless - steel crude steel, and the demand for silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 are provided [5][8]. Inventory - The inventory data of 60 sample silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are given, including weekly inventory in different regions, warehouse receipts, and effective forecasts [6]. - The inventory data of silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including daily warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China [8]. Cost and Profit - The cost - profit - related data of silicon ferroalloy from 2021 - 2025 are provided, including electricity prices in different regions, the market price of blue charcoal, and the production cost and profit in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia [6]. - The cost - profit - related data of silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025 are shown, including the price of raw materials such as manganese ore, and the profit in different regions [7][8].

2025 年 6 月 12 日 品 研 究 硅铁：主产地区减产仍存，宽幅震荡 锰硅：海外矿企报价下移，偏弱震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com | 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 较前一交易日 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | | | 硅铁2507 | 5298 | 6 | 61,627 | 69,305 | | 期 货 | 硅铁2509 | 5184 | 10 | 159,669 | 217,041 | | | 锰硅2507 | 5472 | -58 | 44,991 | 27,893 | | | 锰硅2509 | 5486 | -56 | 245,672 | 448,864 | | | 项 目 | | 价 格 | 较前一交易日 | 单 位 | | | 硅铁:FeSi75-B:汇总价格:内蒙 | | 5100 | -50.0 | 元/吨 | | 现 货 | 硅锰:FeMn65Si17:内蒙 | | 5430 | - | 元/吨 | | | 锰 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The ongoing China-US talks have improved market sentiment, leading to a slight rebound in the futures market. However, the traditional off-season for steel has arrived, with weakening demand and abundant raw material supply, suggesting limited fundamental support for the rebound [3]. - The current fundamentals of iron ore are acceptable, but future concerns are emerging. Supply is increasing while demand is expected to decline, which may lead to slower inventory depletion and potential accumulation [19]. - The relaxation of China-US relations has boosted market sentiment, causing coking coal to rebound due to previous overselling. Coke has also followed, but its rebound is weaker due to downstream price cuts. The demand for coking coal and coke has rigid support in the short term [34]. - Short - term market sentiment for ferroalloys has improved, but the long - term trend remains weak due to factors such as steel mill price pressure, cost decline, and the off - season for steel demand. However, the high - inventory issue is gradually weakening, and the supply is at a low level [51]. - The production of soda ash is expected to gradually recover, and the market remains in a long - term oversupply situation. The demand is stable overall, but the photovoltaic sector may return to an oversupply pattern [65]. - The glass market has a nearly 10% decline in cumulative apparent demand. To balance supply and demand in the second half of the year, the daily melting volume needs to decline. The current valuation is low, but the short - term fundamentals and cost support are weak [93]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price Data**: On June 11, 2025, the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures contracts increased slightly compared to the previous day. The basis and spreads of different contracts also showed certain changes [4][8]. - **Market Situation**: The off - season has led to a decline in some steel demand, such as a significant decrease in the outbound volume of building materials in Hangzhou and inventory accumulation in multiple regions for hot - rolled coils. Although steel mills maintain production through product switching, the supply of raw materials is abundant, and the rebound of the futures market lacks strong fundamental support [3]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On June 11, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore futures contracts increased compared to the previous day, while the basis decreased. The daily and weekly changes in different contracts varied [20]. - **Fundamental Data**: Global iron ore shipments have increased significantly, and the demand is expected to decline. The production of five major steel products has not decreased significantly, but the demand has a seasonal decline, increasing the inventory depletion pressure [19][28]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Price Data**: On June 11, 2025, the coking coal and coke futures prices, basis, and spreads showed different degrees of changes. The coking coal prices rebounded more strongly, and the coking profit on the futures market shrank [35]. - **Market Situation**: The relaxation of China - US relations has driven the rebound of coking coal and coke. The current basis is in a reasonable range, and the demand for coking coal and coke has rigid support in the short term [34]. Ferroalloys - **Price Data**: On June 11, 2025, the prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese spot and futures contracts, as well as their basis and spreads, showed different changes. The cost of ferrosilicon and the prices of raw materials for ferromanganese also changed to some extent [52][53]. - **Market Situation**: Short - term market sentiment has improved, but the long - term trend is still weak. The high - inventory issue is gradually weakening, and the supply is at a low level, with the cost expected to decline [51]. Soda Ash - **Price Data**: On June 11, 2025, the prices of soda ash futures contracts decreased slightly, and the basis and spreads also changed. The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions remained stable [67][68]. - **Market Situation**: The production of soda ash is expected to recover, and the market is in a long - term oversupply situation. The demand is stable overall, but the photovoltaic sector may return to an oversupply pattern [65]. Glass - **Price Data**: On June 11, 2025, the prices of glass futures contracts showed different trends, and the basis and spreads also changed. The daily sales - to - production ratios in different regions varied [94][97]. - **Market Situation**: The cumulative apparent demand for glass has declined nearly 10%. To balance supply and demand in the second half of the year, the daily melting volume needs to decline. The current valuation is low, but the short - term fundamentals and cost support are weak [93].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market, including rebar and hot - rolled coils, is expected to be in low - level consolidation. The rebar spot has no obvious supply - demand contradiction, but it has entered the consumption off - season, and the market has weak expectations for future supply and demand. The rebar futures 2510 contract closed at 2974 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton or 0.23% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 31,500 lots in positions [1]. - The iron ore market is predicted to show an oscillatory consolidation trend. The Australian iron ore shipments have increased significantly, while Brazilian shipments have declined from a high level. The global iron ore shipments have increased, and the iron ore futures i2509 contract closed at 698.5 yuan/ton, down 4.5 yuan/ton or 0.64% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 1,000 lots in positions [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are expected to oscillate. For coking coal, some mines in the producing areas have stopped production, and the coke has been reduced in price three times, squeezing the profits of coking enterprises. The coking coal 2509 contract closed at 785 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton or 0.64% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 10,312 lots in positions. For coke, the inventory of coking enterprises has continued to accumulate, and the steel mills' procurement is cautious. The coke 2509 contract closed at 1349 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton or 0.75% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 255 lots in positions [1]. - The ferrosilicon - manganese market is likely to be in low - level oscillation. The weekly output of ferrosilicon - manganese has increased slightly for three consecutive weeks, and the supply, demand, and cost support are all insufficient. The ferrosilicon - manganese futures closed at 5542 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 5172 lots in positions to 436,200 lots [1]. - The ferrosilicon market is expected to oscillate. An Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon plant has stopped a 33000kva furnace, and the steel procurement is ongoing. The ferrosilicon futures closed at 5174 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 5651 lots in positions to 218,100 lots [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel Products**: The rebar futures showed a narrow - range oscillation, and the spot price was stable with a slight decline. The market has entered the consumption off - season, and the expected supply - demand situation is weak. The futures price of rebar 2510 contract was 2974 yuan/ton, down 0.23% from the previous trading day, and the inventory decreased by 31,500 lots. The spot price in Tangshan was 2900 yuan/ton, and in Hangzhou it was 3060 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The national building materials trading volume was 99,800 tons [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore futures showed an oscillatory consolidation trend. The Australian shipments increased, while Brazilian shipments decreased. The iron ore futures i2509 contract closed at 698.5 yuan/ton, down 0.64% from the previous trading day. The port spot prices decreased, and the 47 - port imported iron ore inventory and steel mills' imported ore inventory continued to decline [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures rose. Some mines in the producing areas stopped production, and the coke was reduced in price three times, squeezing the profits of coking enterprises. The coking coal 2509 contract closed at 785 yuan/ton, up 0.64% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 10,312 lots in positions. The spot price in Lvliang decreased by 5 yuan/ton [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures rose. The downstream steel mills' procurement willingness was low, and the coking enterprises' inventory continued to accumulate. After three price cuts, the coking enterprises' losses increased, and some reduced production. The coke 2509 contract closed at 1349 yuan/ton, up 0.75% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 255 lots in positions. The spot price in Rizhao Port increased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. - **Ferrosilicon - Manganese**: The ferrosilicon - manganese futures showed a narrow - range oscillation. The supply has increased slightly for three consecutive weeks, and the demand and cost support are limited. The ferrosilicon - manganese futures closed at 5542 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 5172 lots in positions to 436,200 lots. The market price of 6517 ferrosilicon - manganese was 5380 - 5540 yuan/ton, and the price in Inner Mongolia decreased by 20 yuan/ton [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures rose slightly. An Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon plant stopped a furnace, and the steel procurement is ongoing. The ferrosilicon futures closed at 5174 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 5651 lots in positions to 218,100 lots. The spot price in most regions decreased by 50 - 100 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: The report provides the latest and环比 data of contract spreads for various varieties such as rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferrosilicon - manganese, and ferrosilicon, including 10 - 1 month, 1 - 5 month spreads, etc [4]. - **Basis**: The latest and环比 data of basis for different varieties are given, like the basis of rebar 10 - contract, hot - rolled coils 10 - contract, etc [4]. - **Spot Prices**: The latest and环比 data of spot prices in different regions for each variety are presented, for example, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou, and the spot price of iron ore PB powder and super - special powder [4]. - **Profits and Spreads**: The latest and环比 data of profits (such as rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) and spreads (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc) are provided [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **3.3.1主力合约价格**: The report includes charts showing the closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferrosilicon - manganese, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [5][7][9][11][14]. - **3.3.2主力合约基差**: Charts display the basis of the main contracts of various varieties over different time periods, such as the basis of rebar RB2010 - RB2510, hot - rolled coils HC2010 - HC2510, etc [16][17][18]. - **3.3.3跨期合约价差**: The report presents charts of the spreads between different contracts of each variety, like the 10 - 01 and 01 - 05 spreads of rebar, hot - rolled coils, etc [24][25][27]. - **3.3.4跨品种合约价差**: Charts show the spreads between different varieties, including the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, etc [39][40][42]. - **3.3.5螺纹钢利润**: Charts display the disk profit, long - process calculated profit, and short - process calculated profit of the rebar main contract from 2020 to 2025 [43][45][49]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - **邱跃成**: The assistant director of the research institute and the director of black research at Everbright Futures, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry, holding multiple industry honors [51]. - **张笑金**: The director of resource product research at Everbright Futures, a trainer for thermal coal at the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and has won many industry awards [51]. - **柳浠**: A black researcher at Everbright Futures, with a master's degree in science, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [51]. - **张春杰**: A black researcher at Everbright Futures, with experience in investment companies and spot - futures trading companies, having passed the CFA Level 2 exam [52].

仓单 最新 日变化 周变化 出厂价折盘面 日变化 周变化 现货 盘面 最新 品种 项目 铁合金早报 供应 需求 800 1300 1800 2300 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁：72%FeSi：出口价格：天津港 （美元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 800 1300 1800 2300 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁：75%FeSi：出口价格：天津港 （美元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -2500 -1500 -500 500 1500 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁-硅锰主力合约价差（元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 01 ...