Core Viewpoint - The decline in average selling prices of live pigs in August has led to a decrease in sales revenue for several listed companies in the pig farming sector, indicating a challenging market environment for the industry. Company Summaries - New Hope reported sales of 1.3378 million pigs in August 2025, a month-on-month increase of 2.71% and a year-on-year increase of 4.72%. However, revenue fell to 1.722 billion yuan, a month-on-month decrease of 4.45% and a year-on-year decrease of 30.73%, primarily due to a significant drop in selling prices, which averaged 13.54 yuan/kg, down 6.23% month-on-month and 32.74% year-on-year [1] - Dongrui Co. announced sales of 94,800 pigs in August 2025, with revenue of 160 million yuan, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 5.48%. The average selling price was 15.86 yuan/kg, down 2.02% month-on-month [1] - Wen's Co. reported sales of 3.2457 million pigs in August 2025, generating revenue of 4.825 billion yuan. The average selling price for live pigs was 13.90 yuan/kg, with year-on-year changes of 37.88% in sales volume but a decline of 17.70% in price [2] - Zhenghong Technology sold 16,800 pigs in August 2025, with revenue of 22.8655 million yuan, showing a month-on-month increase in volume of 3.46% but a revenue decrease of 12.12%. Year-on-year, sales volume increased by 63.31% and revenue by 21.14% [3] - Tianyu Bio sold 26,000 pigs in August 2025, with revenue of 29.8423 million yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 50.83% in volume and 41.89% in revenue, but a year-on-year revenue decline of 53.32% [3] Industry Insights - The average price of pork in China's wholesale markets was 19.94 yuan/kg on August 29, 2025, down from 20.10 yuan/kg the previous week, indicating a continuous decline in pig prices for eight consecutive weeks [3] - Guotai Junan Futures noted that the increase in planned slaughter volumes by large groups and limited demand from smallholders has led to a supply pressure that is difficult to alleviate, with daily transactions falling short of expectations [3] - Guoxin Futures projected that the theoretical slaughter volume will continue to increase in September, with a significant rise expected in October, suggesting that supply growth will outpace seasonal consumption increases [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply rhythm is expected to gradually recover, and there is pressure on supply due to the peak of the previous increase cycle in the inventory of breeding sows in September and the increase in the number of newborn piglets in the past six months. The planned monthly slaughter volume in September increased month - on - month according to Mysteel data. - On the demand side, there is a slight recovery in demand due to centralized procurement by schools at the beginning of the semester, procurement for the Ghost Festival, and the decrease in temperature in the north, leading to a continuous increase in the slaughterhouse's operating rate. - At the beginning of the month, the slowdown in slaughter and the slight recovery in demand led to an increase in spot prices. However, due to market expectations of supply in September, futures prices were weak, and the basis strengthened. - As the slaughter rhythm recovers and supply increases, and after the centralized procurement by schools before the Ghost Festival and at the beginning of the semester ends, demand growth is limited. Under the pattern of weak supply and demand, pig prices may face pressure and mainly operate in a weak and volatile manner. It is recommended to conduct short - term bearish trading [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: Pig prices broke through the support level and declined. The main contract 2511 dropped 1.7% this week [6][10]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply pressure exists as the slaughter rhythm will recover and the supply of breeding sows and newborn piglets suggests an increase. Demand has a slight recovery but is limited after the special procurement periods end. Pig prices may be under pressure and operate in a weak and volatile manner. Short - term bearish trading is recommended [6]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The main contract 2511 of pig futures dropped 1.7% this week [6][10]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 5th, the net short position of the top 20 holders decreased by 1222 lots to 14,854 lots, and the number of futures warehouse receipts was 430, unchanged from last week [12][16]. - **Contract Spread**: The spread between lh2511 and lh2601 contracts was - 435, and the spread between lh2511 and lh2603 contracts was 255 [20]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Basis**: This week, the basis of the September contract was 820 yuan/ton, and the basis of the November contract was 575 yuan/ton [27]. - **Spot Price**: The average national pig market price was 13.90 yuan/kg this week, up 0.16 yuan/kg from last week and 0.72% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 28.00 yuan/kg, down 0.55 yuan/kg from last week and 9.88% from the same period last month [34]. - **Other Prices**: The national pork market price was 24.81 yuan/kg in the week of August 28th, down 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows was 32.51 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week. The pig - grain ratio was 5.89 as of August 20th, down 0.05 from the previous week [38][43]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Breeding Sow Inventory**: In late July 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.41 million, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 and a year - on - year decrease of 0.025%, reaching 103.6% of the normal level. In August, the inventory of breeding sows in 123 large - scale farms decreased slightly by 0.83% month - on - month and increased by 1.86% year - on - year, while in 85 small and medium - sized farms, it decreased slightly by 0.09% month - on - month and increased by 5.92% year - on - year [48]. - **Pig Inventory**: In Q2 2023, the pig inventory was 424.47 million, an increase of 7.16 million from the end of the previous quarter and 9.14 million year - on - year. In August, the inventory of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms increased by 1.11% month - on - month and 5.28% year - on - year, and in 85 small and medium - sized farms in July, it increased by 2.49% month - on - month and 7.23% year - on - year [54]. - **Slaughter Volume and Weight**: In August, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms was 10.7035 million, a month - on - month increase of 2.56% and a year - on - year increase of 23.49%. In July, the slaughter volume of 85 small and medium - sized farms was 473,700, a month - on - month decrease of 1.44% and a year - on - year increase of 54.30%. The average slaughter weight of national ternary hybrid pigs this week was 123.41 kg, an increase of 0.03 kg from last week [59]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Breeding Profit**: As of September 5th, the loss of purchasing piglets for breeding was 126.24 yuan/head, a decrease of 52.65 yuan/head; the profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was 22.17 yuan/head, a month - on - month increase of 20.42 yuan/head. The profit of laying hens was - 0.23 yuan/head, with the loss expanding by 0.02 yuan/head week - on - week, and the profit of 817 meat - crossbred chickens was 1.00 yuan/head [64]. - **Import Situation**: In the first seven months of 2025, the cumulative imported pork was 630,000 tons, with a monthly average of 90,000 tons. In July, the imported pork was 90,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6% [65][69]. - **Substitute Situation**: As of the week of September 5th, the price of white - striped chickens was 14.3 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week. As of the week of September 4th, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.40 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.11 from last week [73]. - **Feed Situation**: As of September 5th, the spot price of soybean meal was 3073.14 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton from the previous week; the price of corn was 2362.94 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.77 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of August 29th, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index was 919.08, an increase of 1.24% from last week. This week, the price of fattening pig compound feed was 3.35 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week. In July 2025, the monthly feed production was 2827.3 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 110.4 tons [75][83][87]. - **CPI**: As of July 2025, the year - on - year increase in China's CPI was 0.0% [91]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - **Slaughter and Inventory**: In the 36th week, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises was 31.27%, a 2 - percentage - point increase from last week and higher than the same period last year. The domestic frozen product storage capacity rate was 17.56%, unchanged from last week [94]. - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of July 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 31.66 million, a month - on - month increase of 5.32%. In July 2025, the national catering revenue was 450.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.1% [99]. 3.7 Pig - Related Stocks The report mentions the stock trends of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific data or analysis is provided [100].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - "Anti-involution" has evolved from a social issue to a long - term policy, with its influence expected to be further established in the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference. It will reshape the price environment and industrial landscape. - The policy will lead to a reduction in over - capacity and price self - discipline, which may narrow the decline of PPI and stabilize inflation. - In the economic aspect, it may result in a co - existence of price increase and growth slowdown in the short term. - For the bond market, the initial impact may be less than 30BP, and it may push up the 10 - year Treasury bond yield by 12.8 - 17.06BP [1][3][44]. Summary According to the Directory 1 Policy: "Anti - involution" of "Generalization" and "Long - term" 1.1 "Anti - involution" Policy Context: From Regulating Industry Competition to Emphasizing Capacity Governance - Since the Politburo meeting in July 2024, the policy has evolved from focusing on unfair competition in emerging industries to capacity regulation and price stability in traditional industries, with a significant expansion in scope and a more prominent macro - regulatory nature [10]. 1.2 "Anti - involution" Policy Origin: Persistent Concerns about Low Inflation - The policy is a response to weak domestic market demand. In 2025, the CPI and PPI data show weak demand, and the policy aims to stabilize prices [15]. 1.3 "Anti - involution" Policy Expectation: A Long - cycle Policy Goal - It is expected to be further established as a strategic policy in the Central Economic Work Conference at the end of this year. It will affect product and service prices in over - capacity industries and may influence the macro - price level through the upstream and mid - stream of the industrial chain [20]. 2 Industry: Current Industry Profits and "Involution" Degree 2.1 High "Involution": Mid - and Downstream Manufacturing - Using industrial enterprise profit changes and long - term gross margin trends, 20 industries have seen profit declines this year, with coal mining and others having large drops. Over the past three years, industries like coal and oil and gas extraction have had significant gross margin declines [23][24]. 2.2 Low "Involution": High - concentration Industries - 20 industries have had profit increases this year, with 13 exceeding the industry average. Industries such as ferrous metal smelting and non - ferrous metal mining have high profit growth, and others like other mining and alcohol, tea, and beverage industries have seen continuous gross margin improvements [26]. 3 Impact: What Impact Does "Anti - involution" Have? 3.1 Impact on Prices: No Worries This Year, Long - term Increase - The policy affects the supply side through production cuts and price self - discipline, which will be transmitted to PPI. Future PPI decline may narrow, and inflation may stabilize [3][28]. 3.2 Impact on Growth: Affecting Production and Demand - The policy may directly affect enterprise production capacity and industrial added value. The constructed production index shows that price increase and growth slowdown may co - exist in the short term, and more coordinated macro - policies may be needed [32][37]. 3.3 Impact on the Bond Market: Lifting the Investment Return Rate Center - Referring to the 2015 supply - side reform, the initial impact on the bond market may be less than 30BP. The policy may push up the ROIC, which corresponds to an upward space of 12.8 - 17.06BP for the 10 - year Treasury bond yield [38][40].

Core Viewpoint - The livestock sector shows profit growth, reduced debt, and increased cash flow, with more companies planning to distribute dividends, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - Revenue and profit both increased, with Q2 2025 revenue reaching 120.56 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.20% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.85% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q2 was 8.715 billion, up 23.4% year-on-year and an increase of 0.785 billion from Q1 [2]. Balance Sheet Analysis - The sector has focused on reducing debt, with capital expenditure not significantly increasing; capital expenditure in Q2 decreased by approximately 0.7 billion, and construction in progress fell by 39.65% year-on-year [2]. - The average debt-to-asset ratio for the sector decreased to 56.27% in Q2, down about 2 percentage points from Q1 [2]. Cash Flow Improvement - The net cash flow from operating activities for Q2 was 20.194 billion, an increase of 6.616 billion quarter-on-quarter, indicating improved cash flow alongside reduced debt levels [2]. Dividend Distribution - The livestock industry is experiencing improved cash flow and lower debt ratios, leading to increased dividends from companies such as Muyuan, Shennong, and Jingji Zhino, with expectations for more companies to follow suit as debt levels decrease [3].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guolian Minsheng Securities indicates that the number of breeding sows in China is expected to continue increasing until at least September 2025, despite a projected decline in overall pig prices and profitability in the industry [1] Group 1: Breeding Sow Inventory - According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the number of breeding sows in July decreased slightly to 40.42 million, a decline of 10,000 heads month-on-month [1] - Data from Yongyi Consulting shows that the breeding sow inventory in sample 1 increased by 0.14% month-on-month, while sample 2 saw a growth of 0.52% [2] - Mysteel's data indicates that the breeding sow inventory remained stable month-on-month, with a slight increase in large-scale farms and a minor decrease in smallholder farms [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The average profit per pig sold in 2023 has been 108 yuan, with the industry maintaining profitability for 15 consecutive months [1] - In July, pig feed sales increased by 4.9%, indicating a rise in demand for feed despite fluctuating pig prices [2] - The overall pig market has seen a high-level retreat, but profits for large-scale farms remain, leading to limited willingness to reduce production capacity [3] Group 3: Industry Recommendations - Guolian Minsheng Securities recommends investing in leading breeding companies with significant cost advantages and high output realization rates, such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group [1] - The report also suggests focusing on the post-cycle animal health and feed sectors, highlighting companies like Haida Group [1]

Core Insights - The overall performance of A-share listed companies in the first half of 2025 showed positive growth, with total revenue exceeding 35 trillion yuan and net profit reaching 3 trillion yuan, reflecting a slight year-on-year increase [2][3] - Nearly 60% of companies reported revenue growth, and over 70% achieved profitability, indicating a robust market recovery [3][6] - A significant number of companies, specifically 110, saw their revenue double year-on-year, with some experiencing growth rates exceeding 10 times [2][5] Revenue and Profit Growth - In the first half of 2025, the total revenue of A-share companies was 35.01 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.16%, while net profit was 3 trillion yuan, up 2.54% [3][6] - The growth rate of net profit improved by 4.76 percentage points compared to the previous year, with notable performance in the ChiNext, STAR Market, and Beijing Stock Exchange, showing revenue growth rates of 9.03%, 4.90%, and 6.08% respectively [3][6] Companies with Significant Turnarounds - Over 300 companies successfully turned losses into profits, with more than 120 companies achieving net profit growth exceeding 200% [7][10] - Notable examples include BeiGene, which shifted from a loss of 2.88 billion yuan in the previous year to a profit of 449.78 million yuan, and New Hope, which turned a loss of 1.22 billion yuan into a profit of 755 million yuan [10][12] High-Growth Companies - A total of 110 companies reported revenue growth rates exceeding 100%, with companies like Zhixiang Jintai, Haichuang Pharmaceutical, and Cambrian achieving growth rates over 1000% [5][12] - Companies such as Guolian Minsheng and Muyuan Foods reported impressive net profit growth rates of 1185.19% and 1169.77%, respectively, highlighting their strong performance in the market [5][12] Market Recovery Factors - The recovery of the A-share market is attributed to several factors, including a stable macroeconomic environment with a GDP growth of 5.3%, continued liquidity support from the central bank, and capital market reforms [6][7]

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [8] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that as of July, the number of breeding sows in China decreased to 40.42 million heads, a decline of 10,000 heads month-on-month, while the number of sows eliminated increased by 2.1% [5][16] - The report emphasizes the need for strict implementation of production capacity control measures, including reasonable elimination of breeding sows and reduction of breeding sow inventory [5][16] - The report recommends focusing on high-quality breeding companies with significant cost advantages and high slaughter realization rates, specifically mentioning Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [5][12] Summary by Sections 1. Changes in Breeding Sow Inventory in July - The breeding sow inventory in July showed a month-on-month decrease, with a total of 40.42 million heads reported by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs [5][16] - The average profit per pig sold in 2025 has been 108 yuan, with continuous profitability in the pig farming sector for 15 months [5][9] 2. Future Pig Price Trends and Production Capacity Changes - The report anticipates that pig prices will face downward pressure in 2025 due to an increase in supply, with a projected weak overall price trend [24][25] - The breeding sow inventory is expected to continue to decrease, with a significant drop in net profit per pig to 21 yuan in July 2025, a 96.1% year-on-year decline [25][26] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests investing in low-cost pig farming enterprises, highlighting the expected growth in pig output until at least September 2025, despite anticipated pressure on prices [26][12] - Recommended companies include Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, along with companies in the animal health and feed sectors like Haida Group [12][26]

证券代码：603363 证券简称：傲农生物 公告编号：2025-088 福建傲农生物科技集团股份有限公司 2025 年 8 月养殖业务主要经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 福建傲农生物科技集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）现将 2025 年 8 月养殖业务主要经营数据披露如下： 一、2025 年 8 月养殖业务主要经营数据 单位：万头 | 主要产品 | 销售量 | 库存量 | 销售量同比 增减（%） | 库存量同比 增减（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 生猪 | 15.01 | 60.51 | +26.84 | +19.39 | 2025 年 8 月，公司生猪销售量 15.01 万头，同比增加 26.84%，较 2025 年 7 月增加 5.28%。 2025 年 8 月末，公司生猪存栏 60.51 万头，同比增加 19.39%，较 2025 年 7 月末增加 6.50%，较 2024 年 12 月末增加 17.97%。 公司积极推动生猪养殖产能优化工 ...

国泰海通发布研报称，养殖板块养殖成本有所下降，从而带动利润改善。往后看，该行预计低成本公司 现金流状况将进一步改善。另预期行业分红公司逐步增加，分红率逐步增长。基于行业盈利能力改善， 继续看好生猪养殖行业。推荐标的：牧原股份（002714）(002714.SZ)、温氏股份（300498） (300498.SZ)、巨星农牧（603477）(603477.SH)、神农集团（605296）(605296.SH)、天康生物 （002100）(002100.SZ)。 从资产负债表可以看到，利润的增厚主要投向降负债，资本开支没有大幅提升，该行看到二季度资本开 支环比下降约7亿，在建工程同比下降39.65%，板块平均资产负债率在二季度降到56.27%，环比Q1下降 约2个百分点。现金流量表：现金流的改善。单二季度的经营活动现金流净额为201.94亿，环比增加 66.16亿，并且是在二季度负债率明确改善的情况下，现金流逐步充裕。往后看，该行预计低成本公司 现金流状况将进一步改善。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 利润表：营收利润双增 利润表来看，2025Q2营业收入1205.60亿元，同比增加15.20%，环比增加9.85%。从成本 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report suggests that pig prices will experience weak fluctuations in the second half of 2025, with a focus on observing the progress of capacity reduction [1] - The report recommends leading companies with strong cash flow and dividend capabilities, as well as those that can achieve growth through mergers and innovations [1] - The post-cycle prosperity is expected to continue, with a positive trend for major products in the seed industry and increasing market share for certain companies [1] Group 2 - In the pig farming industry, the report indicates that industry capacity will gradually increase in the first half of 2025, leading to a downward trend in pig prices, with an average industry price of 14.55 yuan/kg in Q2 2025, reflecting a 3.1% decrease quarter-on-quarter and an 11.2% decrease year-on-year [1] - Benefiting from lower feed prices and improved efficiency, most listed companies are expected to see a continued decline in costs in the first half of 2025 [1] - Following national capacity control policies, leading companies have begun to reduce the number of breeding sows and the weight of market pigs, with capital expenditures slowing down and debt ratios decreasing in Q2 [1] - Looking ahead, while supply pressure in the pig market remains, initial results from weight reduction efforts and the upcoming consumption peak suggest limited downward space for pig prices in the second half of 2025 [1] - The report anticipates a gradual reduction in capacity and a stabilization of pig prices in the medium term, with a potential reshaping of industry valuation models [1]