Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles is the expansion of the national carbon emissions trading market to include more industries, specifically steel, cement, and aluminum smelting, which is aimed at promoting green and low-carbon transformation in these sectors [1][2] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has issued a plan for the total amount and allocation of carbon emission allowances for the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries for the years 2024 and 2025, marking an important step in the expansion of the carbon trading market [1] - Key emission units are required to complete the first allowance surrender for 2024 within the year, and the pre-allocated allowances for 2025 will be distributed in the first half of next year, with a deadline for surrender by the end of next year [1] Group 2 - The expansion of the carbon emissions trading market is expected to drive more companies to reduce carbon emissions through technological innovation, energy-saving upgrades, and improved management efficiency, thereby fostering the development and investment in low-carbon, zero-carbon, and negative-carbon technologies [2] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has initiated preparatory work for expanding the trading market to include industries such as chemicals, petrochemicals, civil aviation, and papermaking, focusing on historical data governance and technical documentation [2] - The Ministry will adopt a principle of "mature one, include one" to gradually expand the coverage of the trading market to additional industries and greenhouse gas types, aiming for comprehensive coverage of major industrial emission sectors by 2027 [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles is the expansion of the national carbon emissions trading market to include more industries, specifically steel, cement, and aluminum smelting, which is aimed at promoting green and low-carbon transformation in these sectors [1][2] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has issued a plan for the total amount and allocation of carbon emission allowances for the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries for the years 2024 and 2025, marking an important step in the expansion of the carbon trading market [1] - Key emission units are required to complete the first allowance clearing by the end of this year, with the 2025 pre-allocated allowances to be issued in the first half of next year, and the 2025 allowance clearing to be completed by the end of next year [1] Group 2 - The expansion of the carbon emissions trading market is expected to drive more companies to reduce carbon emissions through technological innovation, energy-saving upgrades, and improved management efficiency, thereby fostering the development and investment in low-carbon, zero-carbon, and negative-carbon technologies [2] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has initiated preparatory work for expanding the trading market to include industries such as chemicals, petrochemicals, civil aviation, and papermaking, focusing on historical data governance and technical documentation [2] - The Ministry will adopt a principle of "mature one, include one" to gradually expand the coverage of the trading market to additional industries and greenhouse gas types, aiming for comprehensive coverage of major industrial emission sectors by 2027 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant capital expenditure expansion by Xianhe Co., which is a major player in the specialty paper industry, indicating a bold strategic move to enhance production capacity and revenue growth despite current market challenges [4][6]. Group 1: Capital Expenditure - Xianhe Co. plans to increase its capital expenditure to 43.3 billion and 39.1 billion in 2023 and 2024, respectively, which is more than four times the 9.7 billion in 2022 [4][6]. - This capital expenditure is the second largest in the A-share paper industry, only behind Sun Paper, despite Xianhe's revenue ranking seventh in the industry [6]. Group 2: Company Overview - Xianhe Co. is a leading domestic manufacturer of high-performance paper-based functional materials, with the Wang family holding nearly 80% of the shares [7][8]. - The company offers a diverse product range across six major series, covering over 60 varieties, including packaging materials for food and medical use, tobacco industry products, home decoration materials, and various types of paper for industrial use [8]. Group 3: Market Position - Xianhe Co. holds a dominant market position in several segments, with over 90% market share in low-grammage printing paper, nearly 45% in tobacco industry products, over 20% in mid-to-high-end home decoration materials, and around 25% in thermal cash register paper [8]. Group 4: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, Xianhe Co. achieved revenue of 90.63 billion, a year-on-year increase of 24.8%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 4.8% [9]. - The company experienced a net profit decline of 11.2% in the first half of the year, but saw a turnaround in the third quarter with a revenue of 30.7 billion, up 15.5%, and a net profit of 3.0 billion, up 13.9% [11]. Group 5: Cash Flow and Strategy - The operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 9.19 billion, a significant increase of 105.1%, driven by higher sales and faster collection of receivables [12]. - To address upstream raw material bottlenecks, Xianhe Co. initiated a "forest-pulp-paper integration" strategy, with total investments exceeding 200 billion for two major production bases in Guangxi and Hubei [12].

纸浆早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/11/24 SP主力合约收盘价： 5228.00 | 日期 | 2025/11/21 | 2025/11/20 | 2025/11/19 | 2025/11/18 | 2025/11/17 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 5228.00 | 5298.00 | 5396.00 | 5408.00 | 5474.00 | | 折美元价 | 650.10 | 650.10 | 662.95 | 664.17 | 673.11 | | 距上一日涨跌 | -1.32125% | -1.81616% | -0.22189% | -1.20570% | -0.10949% | | 山东银星基差 | 262 | 212 | 154 | 142 | 76 | | 江浙沪银星基差 | 272 | 212 | 144 | 132 | 76 | 以13%增值税计算 | 产地 | 品牌 | 价格说明 | 港口美元价格 | 山东地区人民币价格 | 进口利润 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Group 1: Overall Conclusion - The core pattern of loose supply and demand in the pulp market remains unchanged. Short - term factors such as pulp mill shutdowns and packaging paper price increases provide slight support for prices, but weak cultural paper demand and continuous port inventory accumulation limit the upside space. The pulp futures 01 contract already has delivery profits, and further upside is limited. It is likely to show a volatile trend subsequently [6]. - The supply - demand imbalance in the double - offset paper market persists. Although paper enterprises have a strong willingness to support prices in the short term, weak demand cannot support a significant price increase. Coupled with the poor transmission of rising wood pulp costs, double - offset paper futures are likely to maintain a weak range - bound oscillation. Attention should be paid to the impact of the concentrated release of publishing tenders on the market [17]. Group 2: Pulp Demand - There is a continuous structural differentiation in demand. The price increase of white cardboard has been successfully implemented, and leading packaging paper enterprises are driving a price increase wave. The average prices of corrugated paper and boxboard paper have both increased by 80 yuan/ton week - on - week. However, the demand for cultural paper remains weak. Even though double - offset paper plans to raise prices, due to lack of demand support, downstream acceptance is low, and overall demand has not fully expanded [5]. Supply - Supply is generally loose with short - term disturbances. China's pulp production increased by 10.2% month - on - month in October, providing a solid supply foundation. The FOB price of Chilean softwood pulp decreased while that of hardwood pulp increased. However, the temporary shutdown of the US Magnolia pulp mill since November 20 has brought short - term minor disturbances to global supply, but it is difficult to change the overall loose pattern [5]. Inventory - Pulp inventory continues to accumulate at a high level. As of November 20, the inventory of pulp samples at major domestic ports reached 2.173 million tons, an increase of 63,000 tons from the previous period, a 3.0% week - on - week increase. Only a few ports such as Changshu Port showed a narrow - range destocking trend, while Qingdao Port continued to accumulate inventory significantly. The overall inventory is at a medium level for the year [5]. Profit - There is a differentiation in paper enterprises' profits. Packaging paper enterprises' profits are clearly recovering due to product price increases and smooth cost transmission of steadily rising pulp costs. However, enterprises relying on cultural paper are still under pressure. The inventory of products such as double - offset paper is high, price increases are difficult to implement, and cost pressure is difficult to transfer, resulting in low gross margins [5]. Group 3: Double - Offset Paper Demand - Demand is mainly based on rigid needs with limited support. Publishing tenders are progressing, but local tender prices are low, having little impact on market prices. Social orders have not improved significantly. Downstream printing factories purchase as needed, and dealers mainly digest previous inventories. There is insufficient follow - up for new orders of double - offset paper, and overall demand has not increased [16]. Supply - Supply is abundant with a slight easing of pressure. This week, the operating load rate of double - offset paper decreased slightly by 0.33 percentage points to 52.20%. Although some production lines in Jiangsu are under maintenance and some small and medium - sized factories in Shandong are operating below capacity, most large - scale paper enterprises are producing as planned, and new production capacity in South China is continuously increasing, so the overall supply remains abundant [16]. Inventory - Inventory shows an accumulation trend. This week, the inventory days of double - offset paper increased by 0.54% week - on - week. Due to low downstream purchasing enthusiasm and limited new orders, the paper mills' shipping rhythm has slowed down, and inventory is under pressure, remaining at a relatively high level [16]. Profit - Losses continue to expand, and paper enterprises face significant profit pressure. On the one hand, rising wood pulp prices have increased raw material costs. On the other hand, although some paper enterprises plan to raise the price of double - offset paper by 200 yuan/ton, due to weak demand, the price increase is difficult to be accepted by downstream customers, and costs cannot be transferred smoothly [16]. Group 4: Waste Paper Demand - Rigid demand provides support, but the intensity is weakening. E - commerce inventory replenishment still supports packaging paper orders, driving paper mills' rigid demand for waste paper replenishment. However, the overall demand release is weaker than before. The sales of waste - paper - based products such as corrugated paper and boxboard paper have decreased by 10.8% and 17.9% respectively, and the purchase prices of waste paper in some regional paper mills have been adjusted downward, resulting in light trading [26]. Supply - There is a regional differentiation in supply, and the overall tightness has eased. The arrival of waste paper in East and North China has increased significantly, improving the shortage of circulating supplies. However, the supply in South China remains tight. The waste paper prices across the country show a mixed trend. For example, Shandong Tai'an Taihe Gypsum Paper Industry has raised prices by 40 - 90 yuan/ton, while many paper enterprises in Guizhou have lowered prices by 10 - 30 yuan/ton, reflecting the regional imbalance on the supply side [26]. Inventory - There is a structural differentiation in inventory. At the paper mill end, the inventories of waste - paper - based base papers such as corrugated paper and boxboard paper are decreasing, with a month - on - month decline of 1.0% - 1.1%. However, the waste - paper recycling end is under great pressure. The previous downward fluctuation of waste paper prices has led to inventory backlogs in many packing stations, with some packing stations having inventories of nearly 500 tons and significant destocking pressure [26]. Profit - There is an obvious differentiation in industry profits. The profits of waste - paper - based paper enterprises have been repaired. The price increase of base papers such as boxboard paper and corrugated paper is higher than the increase in waste paper costs, and the corresponding gross profit margins have increased by 7.2% and 10.8% respectively. However, waste - paper recycling enterprises are deeply in losses. Some packing stations bought waste paper at high prices before, and the current selling price is below the cost line, with a loss of more than 400 yuan per ton. Small and medium - sized recyclers face great profit pressure [27]. Group 5: Packaging Paper (Boxboard Paper) Demand - There is still demand for inventory replenishment, but its release is weak. The replenishment demand after e - commerce promotions still supports orders to some extent. However, the overall demand is weaker than before. This week, the sales volume of boxboard paper reached 639,000 tons, a 17.9% week - on - week decrease. The trading in some regional paper mills is light, and purchase prices have been adjusted downward [37]. Supply - The supply contraction is obvious. This week, the capacity utilization rate of boxboard paper has dropped to 67.5%, a 3.3% week - on - week decrease, and the output has also decreased to 631,000 tons. Leading paper enterprises such as Nine Dragons and Shanying are implementing shutdown and maintenance plans, which not only reduce short - term supply but also accelerate the clearance of inefficient production capacity. At the same time, changes in the recycled pulp import policy further reduce supply, jointly supporting the price increase of boxboard paper [37]. Inventory - The low - level destocking trend continues. The boxboard paper inventory at the paper mill end has decreased by 1.0% week - on - week, and the overall inventory is at a low level. This inventory contraction not only reduces market supply pressure but also provides strong support for boxboard paper price increases, driving the market to operate steadily and slightly strongly [37]. Profit - The profit repair is significant. This week, the price of boxboard paper has increased with the industry - wide price increase wave, and the price increase is higher than the increase in raw material costs such as waste paper, driving the gross profit margin to increase by 7.2%. Leading enterprises, with their advantages in the whole industrial chain layout and pricing power, have more prominent profit repair during the price increase wave, further widening the profit gap [37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The pulp market is expected to remain in a volatile and weak pattern in the short - term. The supply - demand fundamentals have not improved substantially, with port inventories continuing to accumulate at a high level and downstream demand remaining weak, resulting in limited support for pulp prices [99]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - As of November 20, 2025, the pulp inventory in Changshu Port was 555,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from the previous period, a 2.5% month - on - month decrease; the inventory in Qingdao Port was 1.463 million tons, an increase of 58,000 tons from the previous week, a 4.1% month - on - month increase; the inventory in Gaolan Port was 51,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous week, a 24.4% month - on - month increase. The sample inventory of China's major pulp ports was 2.173 million tons, an increase of 63,000 tons from the previous period, a 3.0% month - on - month increase [5][6]. - In October 2025, the import volume of bleached softwood pulp was 691,000 tons, a 0.1% month - on - month increase and a 6.0% year - on - year increase. The cumulative import volume for the year was 7.122 million tons, a 2.7% cumulative year - on - year increase. The import volume of bleached hardwood pulp was 1.318 million tons, a 2.8% month - on - month decrease and an 8.2% year - on - year increase. The cumulative import volume for the year was 13.826 million tons, a 10.3% cumulative year - on - year increase [6][7]. 3.2 Market Data - **Market Trends**: Included the analysis of the basis of silver star and Russian needle pulp, the spread between silver star and Russian needle pulp, and the monthly spread of 01 - 03 and 03 - 05 [13][14][19]. - **Basis and Monthly Spread**: On November 21, 2025, the basis of silver star pulp was 222 yuan/ton, a 217.14% month - on - month increase; the basis of Russian needle pulp was - 28 yuan/ton, a 65.00% month - on - month increase; the spread between silver star and Russian needle pulp was 250 yuan/ton, a 66.67% month - on - month increase [14]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Price**: - The spread between softwood and hardwood pulp decreased. On November 21, 2025, the spread between silver star and goldfish pulp was 1,050 yuan/ton, an 8.70% month - on - month decrease; the spread between Russian needle and goldfish pulp was 800 yuan/ton, a 20.00% month - on - month decrease [23][25]. - The import profit of softwood and hardwood pulp decreased. On November 21, 2025, the import profit of silver star softwood pulp was - 76.03 yuan/ton, a 373.44% month - on - month decrease; the import profit of star hardwood pulp was 45.21 yuan/ton, a 6.32% month - on - month decrease [28][30]. - The price of imported softwood pulp decreased. On November 21, 2025, the price of silver star pulp was 5,450 yuan/ton, a 1.80% month - on - month decrease; the price of Russian needle pulp was 5,200 yuan/ton, a 3.70% month - on - month decrease [32][33]. - The price of hardwood pulp was relatively stable. On November 21, 2025, the price of goldfish pulp was 4,400 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change [37]. - **Supply**: - The price of wood chips in East China was differentiated. On November 21, 2025, the purchase price of eucalyptus wood chips by Liansheng Pulp and Paper was 1,200 yuan/ton, a 1.69% month - on - month increase; the purchase price of pine wood chips by Wuzhou Special Paper was 1,060 yuan/ton, a 9.40% month - on - month decrease [42][44]. - The price of domestic pulp was stable, and the supply of hardwood pulp increased. On November 20, 2025, the weekly output of domestic hardwood pulp was 117,000 tons, a 27.17% month - on - month increase [46][48]. - In September 2025, the pulp port inventory in Europe decreased month - on - month; in October, the inventory days of softwood pulp in Europe decreased month - on - month [50][52]. - In August 2025, the shipment volume of W20 softwood pulp was at a low level, and the inventory was high; the shipment volume of hardwood pulp continued to be at a high level, but the inventory days were low [54][56]. - In August 2025, the export volume of softwood pulp from four countries (Canada, Chile, Finland, and the United States) to China decreased month - on - month and was at a low level year - on - year; in September, the export volume of Finland to China increased significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year; in October, the export volume of Chilean softwood pulp to China continued to increase month - on - month but decreased year - on - year [60]. - In September 2025, the export volume of hardwood pulp from four countries (Brazil, Indonesia, Uruguay, and Chile) increased both month - on - month and year - on - year; in October, the export volume of Brazilian hardwood pulp decreased slightly month - on - month, and the export volume of Uruguay decreased significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year [64]. - In October 2025, China's pulp imports were differentiated. The import volume of softwood pulp increased by 0.06% month - on - month, the import volume of hardwood pulp decreased by 2.77% month - on - month, and the import volume of unbleached pulp and chemimechanical pulp increased significantly [66][68]. - **Demand**: - **Offset Paper**: The average price of offset paper enterprises was stable. Due to industry profitability and production and sales pressure, some factories' production lines were converted or the production load was reduced. The demand was weak, with no concentrated supply of publication orders and dull social orders [70]. - **Coated Paper**: The price of coated paper decreased slightly. Some production lines continued the maintenance state, and the supply decreased slightly. The demand was weak, with no concentrated supply of publication orders and no obvious improvement in social orders [74]. - **White Cardboard**: The market price of white cardboard was stable. The production cost increased and then stabilized. The supply was stable, and the inventory pressure of paper mills was not large. The demand was mainly for rigid needs [78]. - **Household Paper**: The market price of household paper was stable. The terminal demand did not show an obvious recovery, and the inventory pressure of some paper mills was difficult to release in the short term. The cost support of raw material pulp was weak [82]. - **Terminal Demand**: In October 2025, the retail sales of cultural and office supplies, cosmetics, and daily necessities increased significantly year - on - year [86]. 3.4 This Week's View Summary - **Supply**: In October 2025, the import volume of bleached softwood pulp increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. As of November 20, 2025, the sample inventory of China's major pulp ports increased for two consecutive weeks [98]. - **Demand**: The downstream demand was weak, and the cost transmission was difficult. The downstream paper industry was not performing well, and the demand was weak. The paper mills had poor profitability and limited acceptance of high - priced raw materials [99]. - **View**: The pulp market is expected to remain in a volatile and weak pattern in the short - term, as the supply - demand fundamentals have not improved substantially [99]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies for single - side trading; observe for inter - period and inter - variety trading; investors meeting the suitability requirements can consider selling out - of - the - money options in the range of [5000 - 6000] [99].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 胶版印刷纸周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·石忆宁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0022533 日期：2025年11月23日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情走势 02 供需数据 03 行情研判 04 行业资讯 现货价格 成本利润 季节性特征 供给 需求 库存 进出口 行情研判 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 行业资讯 1、据卓创资讯数据监测统计，本周四双胶纸库存天数较上周四上升0.78%，本周增幅环比扩大0.24个百分点。出版订单尚未大规模提货，纸 厂库存消耗进度不快，且部分纸企为供应出版订单提前备库，导致行业处于累库状态。 2、据卓创资讯数据统计，本周双胶纸开工负荷率在51.90%，环比下降0.30个百分点，本周降幅环比收窄0.03个百分点。规模产线基本正常 排产，江苏地区仍存检修情况，市场开工水平整体调整不大。 资料来源：国泰君安期货研究 Special report on Guotai Jun ...

Core Points - The stock price of Shanying International (600567) closed at 1.71 yuan on November 21, 2025, down 9.04% from 1.88 yuan the previous week [1] - The company has a total market capitalization of 9.944 billion yuan, ranking 3rd in the paper industry and 1808th among A-shares [1] Company Announcements - Shanying International held its third extraordinary general meeting of shareholders on November 18, 2025, where several key resolutions were passed, including the reappointment of the accounting firm, increase in registered capital, cancellation of the supervisory board, and amendments to the company's articles of association [2][3] - The meeting was conducted with a combination of on-site and online voting, and all resolutions were deemed legally valid with over two-thirds of the voting rights from attending shareholders supporting the increase in registered capital and amendments to the articles of association [2][3] - The resolutions also included the revision of internal governance systems and the addition of daily related transactions, with related parties abstaining from voting on relevant proposals [2]

Report Overview - Report Title: Carbon Market Weekly Report - Date: November 21, 2025 Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The Chinese government is actively promoting the construction of the carbon market, with policies aiming to expand coverage, control quota总量, and increase market vitality [9][10] - The expansion of the national carbon emissions trading market will gradually cover major industrial emission - intensive industries by 2027, marking a new stage in using market - based mechanisms for deep - emission reduction [10] Summary by Directory 1. Carbon Market Weekly Overview - In October, the national carbon market's comprehensive price had a high of 59.30 yuan/ton, a low of 50.34 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 51.96 yuan/ton, down 10.37% from the previous month. The trading volume and turnover of different trading methods were also reported [7] - In the 3rd week of November, the national carbon market quota had a high of 70.14 yuan/ton, a low of 60.02 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 65.27 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 8.48%. The total trading volume was 1169.44 million tons, and the total turnover was 701.0284 million yuan. Price expectations for November and December 2025 were also given [8] 2. Market News - The central government issued an opinion to expand the carbon market's coverage, implement quota总量 control and paid distribution, and improve market vitality [9] - China's carbon market construction aligns with the "dual - carbon" goal, and will gradually implement quota总量 control and paid distribution as the carbon - peak process advances [10] - The expansion schedule of the national carbon emissions trading market was announced, with major industrial sectors to be included by 2027, covering about 75% of CO2 emissions [10] - The "Chengdu Declaration" at the 2025 8th China International Photovoltaic and Energy Storage Industry Conference called for anti - "involution" in the industry and promoted high - quality development [10]

Market Overview - The paper sector experienced a decline of 2.79% on November 21, with Qingshan Paper leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3834.89, down 2.45%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12538.07, down 3.41% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Qingshan Paper (600103) saw a significant drop of 6.30%, closing at 3.42, with a trading volume of 1.74 million shares and a turnover of 609 million yuan [2] - Other notable declines included Minfeng Special Paper (600235) down 6.13% to 6.58, and Hengda New Materials (301469) down 5.74% to 28.25 [2] - Annie Co. (002235) was one of the few gainers, increasing by 1.29% to 8.62, with a trading volume of 2.09 million shares and a turnover of 1.82 billion yuan [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The paper sector saw a net outflow of 347 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 282 million yuan [2] - The main capital inflow was observed in stocks like Huawang Technology (605377) with a net inflow of 5.94 million yuan, while stocks like Qingshan Paper experienced a net outflow of 510,900 yuan [3]