Core Viewpoint - The main contract for urea in July experienced significant fluctuations, with prices rising and then falling, influenced by external market sentiments and a lack of clear trends in price movements [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply side remained relatively stable with minimal changes in existing load [1] - Demand increased seasonally due to higher compound fertilizer loads and export boosts, leading to smooth destocking in the urea industry [1] - However, at the end of the month, low terminal purchasing enthusiasm, declining port inventories, and adjustments in coal prices caused a rebound in industry inventories [1] Market Outlook - The overall improvement in supply and demand for urea was limited, providing insufficient support for market prices [1] - Future market dynamics are expected to be influenced by macroeconomic factors and industry conditions, with limited support for urea demand due to declining agricultural needs and insufficient industrial demand growth [1] - It is anticipated that urea prices will likely continue to experience wide fluctuations and adjustments in August [1] Arbitrage Opportunities - The 09 contract is expected to gradually reflect delivery logic, with insufficient rebound momentum [1] - As the main contract transitions, the price spread between UR09 and UR01 is expected to weaken, allowing for gradual profit-taking from previous short positions [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent performance and financial metrics of Yaqi International (000893), indicating a decline in stock price and mixed capital flow trends [1][2][3] - As of August 1, 2025, Yaqi International's stock closed at 31.54 yuan, down 1.68%, with a trading volume of 96,100 hands and a total transaction amount of 303 million yuan [1] - The capital flow data shows a net inflow of 18.44 million yuan from main funds, accounting for 6.09% of the total transaction amount, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 26.23 million yuan, representing 8.66% of the total [1][2] Group 2 - Over the past five days, the stock has seen fluctuations in capital flow, with the highest net inflow from main funds recorded on July 31 at 15.07 million yuan, and the largest net outflow from retail investors on August 1 [2] - Yaqi International's Q1 2025 report shows a significant increase in revenue to 1.213 billion yuan, up 91.47% year-on-year, and a net profit of 384 million yuan, up 373.53% year-on-year [3] - The company ranks favorably within the fertilizer industry, with a total market value of 29.145 billion yuan, a net asset of 12.081 billion yuan, and a gross profit margin of 54.12%, which is significantly higher than the industry average [3] Group 3 - In the last 90 days, 10 institutions have rated the stock, with 8 buy ratings and 2 hold ratings, and the average target price set at 35.1 yuan [4] - The article explains the concept of capital flow, indicating that the difference between capital inflow and outflow reflects the net force driving the stock price movement [4][5]

从行业市盈率排名来看，公司所处的化肥行业行业市盈率平均25.32倍，行业中值22.28倍，亚钾国际排 名第16位。 股东方面，截至2025年3月31日，亚钾国际股东户数24370户，较上次减少1088户，户均持股市值35.28 万元，户均持股数量2.76万股。 最新一期业绩显示，2025年一季报，公司实现营业收入12.13亿元，同比91.47%；净利润3.84亿元，同 比373.53%，销售毛利率54.12%。 8月1日，亚钾国际今日收盘31.54元，下跌1.68%，滚动市盈率PE（当前股价与前四季度每股收益总和的 比值）达到23.25倍，总市值291.45亿元。 序号股票简称PE(TTM)PE(静)市净率总市值(元)12亚钾国际23.2530.662.41291.45亿行业平均 25.3226.562.58168.13亿行业中值22.2824.181.7778.99亿1云天化8.558.281.87441.53亿2史丹利 11.7812.491.45103.21亿3新洋丰11.9913.551.62178.17亿4云图控股15.2816.051.44129.11亿5司尔特 17.1815.020.8746. ...

尿素日报 | 2025-08-01 农需追肥结束，尿素基本面偏弱 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-07-31，尿素主力收盘1714元/吨（-28）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1780 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1770元/吨（+0）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1780元/吨（-10）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：56 元/吨（+28）；河南基差：66元/吨（+28）；江苏基差：66元/吨（+18）；尿素生产利润240元/吨（+0），出口利润1060 元/吨（+0）。 供应端：截至2025-07-31，企业产能利用率83.60%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为91.73 万吨（+5.85），港口样本 库存量为49.30 万吨（-5.00）。 需求端：截至2025-07-31，复合肥产能利用率38.68%（+5.10%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为63.50%（-1.70%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.12日（+0.18）。 当前宏观氛围转弱，拖累盘面下行。尿素基本面偏弱，仍处于弱现实。需求端走弱，农业需求追肥结束，工业需 求复合肥开工提升缓慢。煤制装置夏季检修季，部分工厂开工率有所下滑，但整体供应量依 ...

尿素周报2025/7/28 作者：康健 从业资格证号：F03088041 交易咨询证号：Z0019583 研究联系方式：kangjian@zjtfqh.com 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 审核：肖兰兰 交易咨询证号：Z0013951 内卷不如外卷 观点小结 | 尿素 | 定性 | 解析 | | --- | --- | --- | | 核心观点 | 中性 偏多 | 供应方面，夏季检修增加，产量下滑但仍处于高位；出口利润较高，但出口额度仍未大幅放开；复合肥开 工率缓慢提升，工业需求不温不火。综合来看，短期国内驱动不明显，内卷不如外卷，出口政策仍有放开 | | | | 预期。 | | 月差 | 中性 | 可继续关注出口提振带来的月差走强机会。 | | | 偏多 | | | 政策 | 中性 | 市场传言小包装尿素出口停止，其他尿素出口仍在进行。 | | 现货 | 中性 | 复合肥开工率缓慢提升，但企业原料库存尚可，采购需求平稳。 | | 库存 | 中性 | 企业库存继续小幅下行，港口库存继续走高，企业库存部分向港口转移。 | | | 偏多 | | | 出口 | 中性 | 国际价格继续走高，出口潜在利润进一步 ...

Price Trends in Various Industries - The national production material market prices increased by 0.9% from July 21 to July 27 compared to the previous week [1] - Steel prices saw an overall increase, with hot-rolled strip steel, rebar, and channel steel priced at 3644 yuan, 3490 yuan, and 3673 yuan per ton, reflecting increases of 3.0%, 2.6%, and 2.4% respectively [1] - Non-ferrous metal prices experienced slight increases, with zinc, copper, and aluminum rising by 2.9%, 1.9%, and 0.7% respectively [2] - Rubber prices continued to rise, with natural rubber and synthetic rubber increasing by 1.5% and 0.7% respectively [3] - Basic chemical raw material prices saw minor increases, with soda ash, sulfuric acid, methanol, and polypropylene rising by 1.5%, 0.9%, 0.4%, and 0.2% respectively [4] - Coal prices were predominantly up, with coking coal and thermal coal priced at 942 yuan and 757 yuan per ton, increasing by 0.9% and 0.3% respectively, while the price of No. 2 smokeless lump coal decreased by 0.1% to 1129 yuan per ton [4] - Fertilizer prices showed a slight recovery, with both compound fertilizer and urea increasing by 0.1% [5] - Refined oil wholesale prices experienced slight fluctuations, with 95-octane gasoline and 0-octane diesel decreasing by 0.1%, while 92-octane gasoline increased by 0.1% [6]

7月31日，沪深两融数据显示，亚钾国际获融资买入额0.64亿元，居两市第683位，当日融资偿还额0.25 亿元，净买入3844.12万元。 来源：金融界 最近三个交易日，29日-31日，亚钾国际分别获融资买入0.75亿元、0.30亿元、0.64亿元。 融券方面，当日融券卖出0.00万股，净买入0.70万股。 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a consolidated net loss of $90 million for the second quarter of 2025, with a loss per share of $1.14 and an EBITDA loss of $24 million [5][11] - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $99 million, with an adjusted loss per share of $0.23 [11] - The negative mark to market impact on the RFS obligation was $89 million, and the unfavorable inventory valuation impact was $32 million [11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the Petroleum segment, total throughput was approximately 172,000 barrels per day, with a light product yield of 99% on crude oil processed [5] - Adjusted EBITDA for the Petroleum segment was $38 million, driven by increased Group 3 crack spreads, offset by higher RIN prices and lower throughput volumes [11] - The Fertilizer segment achieved an adjusted EBITDA of $67 million, supported by higher UAN and ammonia sales pricing and volumes [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Group 3 2-1-1 benchmark cracks averaged $24.02 per barrel for the second quarter, compared to $18.83 per barrel in the same period last year [6] - Average RIN prices for 2025 were approximately $1.11, an increase of over 70% from the prior year [6] - Nitrogen fertilizer prices for 2025 were higher for both UAN and ammonia compared to 2024 [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to focus on improving capture rates, reducing costs, and growing the business profitably [25] - The alkylation project at Wynnewood is expected to enhance the ability to produce premium gasoline, with completion anticipated in 2027 [19] - The company is cautiously optimistic about the refining sector's near and medium-term outlook, given low refined product inventories and steady demand [20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism regarding the refining market, citing low inventories and steady demand for refined products [17][20] - The company is awaiting final regulations from the IRS regarding PTC benefits, which could positively impact the Renewables segment [9][21] - Management indicated that the energy transition is evolving, with a belief that gas and diesel will remain essential fuels for the foreseeable future [48] Other Important Information - The company ended the quarter with a consolidated cash balance of $596 million and total liquidity of approximately $759 million [15] - Significant cash uses included $189 million for capital and turnaround spending and a $70 million prepayment on the term loan [13] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of excess inventory on financials - Management acknowledged that excess inventory during turnaround seasons negatively impacted financial performance, estimating a 7% to 9% decline in capture rates due to timing of product sales [31][35] Question: 2026 CapEx and turnaround outlook - Management indicated that there are no major turnarounds planned for 2026, and guidance on capital spending will be provided later in the year [36] Question: Strategic focus for new leadership - Management emphasized the need for diversification and the potential for future acquisitions to mitigate reliance on a single market [40] Question: Dividend reinstatement considerations - Management expressed a desire to return to dividend payments as soon as possible, with ongoing discussions at the board level [48][51] Question: Small refinery exemptions outlook - Management discussed the ongoing challenges with small refinery exemptions and the potential for legal action if necessary, emphasizing the importance of these exemptions for rural refineries [54][56]

Core Insights - The article discusses the current state of the urea market in Asia, highlighting the complexities of price, supply and demand, and policy influences, particularly focusing on the impact of India's tendering process on the market dynamics [1] Price Analysis - Urea prices are experiencing fluctuations due to various factors, including supply chain disruptions and changes in demand from key markets [1] - The article notes that recent price trends indicate a mixed outlook, with some regions seeing price increases while others face declines [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of urea is being affected by both domestic production levels and international trade policies, leading to a competitive environment [1] - Demand from agricultural sectors remains strong, but is subject to seasonal variations and external economic conditions [1] Policy Influences - Government policies in major producing and consuming countries are playing a significant role in shaping the urea market, with India’s procurement strategies being particularly influential [1] - The article suggests that upcoming policy changes could further impact market stability and pricing strategies [1]

制作日期：2025 年 7 月 31 日 【策略分析】 尿素今日低开低走震荡下行，尾盘收跌 2%。市场成交活跃度不高，现货价 格稳中下降，工厂暂时待发充足，现货报价暂时无太大下行空间。基本面来 看，供应端维稳，今日新疆塔石化临时检修，大约进行一年左右，河南有装置 有检修计划，其他地区基本正常。需求端，主交割区农业需求追肥结束，下游 承接以工业拿货为主，三聚氰胺本期开工负荷下行，正值终端淡季，天气高温 多雨限制户外作业。复合肥工厂开工率继续攀升，且预计本月将持续上行，秋 季肥生产期间，对尿素增量有限，因其以高磷复合肥为主，内需目前刚需为 主，无拉涨动能。近期宏观情绪扰动多，重大会议后市场情绪有降温，大宗商 品普遍收跌，尿素方面出口带来的需求增加目前在盘面基本兑现完成，后续配 额不变的情况下影响相对较小，市场情绪缓和后，盘面震荡为主，目前主力临 近交割月，9-1 价差已至历史低点。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2509 合约 1739 吨低开低走，最终收于 1714 元/吨，收 成一根阴线，涨跌-2.00%，持仓量 141557 手（-5600 手）。前二十名主力持仓席 位来看，多头-529 手，空头-41 ...