Report Overview - Report Date: August 21, 2025 - Report Source: Guotai Junan Futures - Report Theme: Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: Strong fundamental support, consider going long on macro pullbacks [2][4] - **Soybean Oil**: Insufficient driver from US soybeans, expected to trade in a high - level range [2][4] - **Soybean Meal**: Likely to trade in a range as overnight US soybeans edged up and rapeseed meal was weak [2][8] - **Soybean No.1**: Expected to trade weakly [2][8] - **Corn**: Expected to trend weakly [2][11] - **Sugar**: Expected to trade with a slight upward bias [2][14] - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to the situation of new cotton listings [2][18] - **Eggs**: Focus on the rhythm of old hen culling [2][25] - **Hogs**: Wait for spot market confirmation at the end of the month [2][27] - **Peanuts**: Near - term contracts are stronger than long - term contracts [2][33] Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Tracking**: Palm oil futures prices showed a decline during the day and a rise at night, with a day - closing price of 9,486 yuan/ton (-1.06%) and a night - closing price of 9,560 yuan/ton (+0.78%). Soybean oil futures also declined during the day and at night, with a day - closing price of 8,442 yuan/ton (-1.31%) and a night - closing price of 8,418 yuan/ton (-0.28%) [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: US market restrictions have limited direct impact on the Malaysian palm oil industry. Malaysian palm oil exports from August 1 - 20 increased compared to the same period last month, with Amspec reporting a 17.5% increase and ITS reporting a 13.61% increase [5][6] - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil and soybean oil both have a trend intensity of 0 [7] Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Fundamental Tracking**: CBOT soybeans and soybean meal futures rose overnight. In the domestic market, soybean meal spot prices were stable to slightly up, and soybean No.1 futures showed a weak trend [8] - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 20, CBOT soybeans followed the rise of soybean meal. The annual Midwest crop inspection is ongoing, with varying soybean pod numbers in different states [8][10] - **Trend Intensity**: Both soybean meal and soybean No.1 have a trend intensity of 0 [10] Corn - **Fundamental Tracking**: Corn futures prices declined, with C2509 at 2,226 yuan/ton (-1.33%) and C2511 at 2,170 yuan/ton (-0.28%). Spot prices in various regions also showed a downward trend [11] - **Macro and Industry News**: Corn prices in the north and south showed different trends, with northern prices stable and southern prices weakening [12] - **Trend Intensity**: Corn has a trend intensity of 0 [13] Sugar - **Fundamental Tracking**: The raw sugar price was 16.57 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5,990 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract price was 5,676 yuan/ton [14] - **Macro and Industry News**: Brazil's sugar production needs to be re - evaluated, and India's monsoon rainfall has weakened. China's sugar imports in July increased [14] - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar has a trend intensity of 1 [17] Cotton - **Fundamental Tracking**: Cotton futures prices declined slightly during the day and rose slightly at night. Spot prices were generally stable, with some regions showing minor declines [18] - **Macro and Industry News**: Cotton spot trading was light, and the cotton yarn and fabric markets had limited improvement [19] - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton has a trend intensity of 0 [23] Eggs - **Fundamental Tracking**: Egg futures prices showed mixed trends, with the 2509 contract at 3,000 yuan/500 kg (-0.76%) and the 2601 contract at 3,490 yuan/500 kg (+0.23%) [25] - **Trend Intensity**: Eggs have a trend intensity of 0 [25] Hogs - **Fundamental Tracking**: Hog spot and futures prices showed different trends. The market pressure is high due to increased supply and limited demand [29][31] - **Market Logic**: In August, the planned slaughter volume of group farms increased, and the demand growth was limited. The 9 - month contract is still at a premium to the warehouse - receipt cost [31] - **Trend Intensity**: Hogs have a trend intensity of - 1 [30] Peanuts - **Fundamental Tracking**: Peanut futures prices declined, with PK510 at 8,004 yuan/ton (-0.40%) and PK511 at 7,782 yuan/ton (-0.46%). Spot prices were stable [33] - **Spot Market Focus**: New peanuts in some regions are gradually being listed, with limited supply and stable prices [34] - **Trend Intensity**: Peanuts have a trend intensity of 0 [35]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings | Variety | Rating | | --- | --- | | Oils and Fats | Oscillating Bullish | | Protein Meal | Oscillating | | Corn and Starch | Oscillating Bearish | | Hogs | Oscillating | | Natural Rubber | Oscillating Bullish | | Synthetic Rubber | Oscillating Bullish | | Cotton | Oscillating Bullish | | Sugar | Oscillating Bearish in the long - term, Oscillating in the short - term | | Pulp | Oscillating | | Logs | Oscillating Bearish | [171] 2. Core Views The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various agricultural products including oils and fats, protein meal, corn, hogs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs. It assesses the current market conditions, influencing factors, and offers mid - term outlooks and trading strategies for each product. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: Short - term focus on the effectiveness of the lower technical support. - **Logic**: Technical selling pressure led to drops in US soybeans and soybean oil on Tuesday. The market is waiting for the Fed Chair's speech, with the US dollar oscillating stronger and crude oil prices falling. US soybean growth is good, and the USDA August report anticipates a record - high yield. There are uncertainties in US soybean exports, and the demand for US soybean oil from biodiesel has decreased this year. Domestic soybean imports are expected to decline seasonally, and the inventory of domestic soybean oil may peak. Palm oil is in the production season, and there is a high probability of inventory accumulation. - **Outlook**: Oscillating bullish [5]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **View**: The price is oscillating narrowly at a high level, waiting for the results of the field inspection. - **Logic**: Internationally, US soybean is expected to oscillate around 1050 cents. Domestically, there is a consensus on near - month inventory pressure and far - month supply shortage. Some oil mills will reduce their operating rates, and the import profit is rising. - **Outlook**: The basis may bottom out and rebound. It is recommended that oil mills sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises buy basis contracts or price at low levels. Hold long positions at 2900 - 2910 and add positions on dips [6]. 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - **View**: The sentiment is bearish, and spot and near - month prices are falling rapidly. - **Logic**: Domestic corn prices are generally falling. The supply of old - crop corn is tight, but the purchasing enthusiasm is weak. The new - crop corn production is normal, and foreign supply is abundant. - **Outlook**: Oscillating bearish in the short - term, with supply pressure easing after the new - crop harvest [7][8]. 3.1.4 Hogs - **View**: Stricter transportation policies have weakened the futures price. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the planned slaughter volume in August has increased. In the medium - term, the supply of commercial pigs is expected to increase. In the long - term, anti - involution policies may lead to capacity reduction. - **Outlook**: Oscillating. There is inventory pressure in the short - term, and the far - month prices may be affected by capacity reduction expectations [9]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: The weakening of commodity sentiment dragged down the rubber price. - **Logic**: Although the rubber price dropped due to weakening sentiment, it gradually recovered in the afternoon. The rubber is entering the seasonal rising period, and there are many speculative themes. The short - term supply may decrease, and the demand is rigid. - **Outlook**: Oscillating bullish in the short - term [11][12]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: Positive news supported the price rebound after the decline. - **Logic**: The BR price initially followed the market down but rebounded after the news of petrochemical industry reform. The price is mainly affected by natural rubber and the short - term tight supply of butadiene. - **Outlook**: The butadiene price may rise slightly, and the market may oscillate bullishly [13][14]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **View**: Supported by fundamentals, the cotton price corrected during the session but was relatively resistant to decline. - **Logic**: Affected by the overall commodity atmosphere, the cotton price corrected at night but rebounded during the day. The commercial inventory is low, and the demand is improving, but there are also factors restricting the price increase. - **Outlook**: Oscillating between 13500 - 14300 yuan/ton [15]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **View**: The increasing supply has put pressure on the sugar price. - **Logic**: In the international market, Brazil's sugar production is increasing. In the domestic market, the import volume in July reached a high level. The supply is increasing, but the downward space is limited in the short - term. - **Outlook**: Oscillating bearish in the long - term, oscillating between 5600 - 5900 yuan/ton in the short - term [17]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **View**: The price change is small, moving within a range. - **Logic**: The pulp price continued to correct, and the spot price of softwood pulp declined. The supply and demand of wood pulp have both positive and negative factors. - **Outlook**: Oscillating. The price of hardwood pulp may drive the futures price, and the main contract is expected to move between 5100 - 5500 [18]. 3.1.10 Logs - **View**: Try to go long on far - month contracts at low prices. - **Logic**: The fundamentals of logs are marginally improving, with reduced arrival pressure and inventory depletion. However, there are also negative factors such as weak demand and delivery pressure. - **Outlook**: Oscillating between 790 - 840 [19][20]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring The report lists the data monitoring of various varieties including oils and fats, protein meal, corn, hogs, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [22][41][54]. 3.3 Rating Standards The report defines rating standards such as bullish, oscillating bullish, oscillating, oscillating bearish, and bearish, with a time - cycle of 2 - 12 weeks and a standard deviation calculation method [171]. 3.4 Commodity Index On August 20, 2025, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all declined. The agricultural product index also declined, with a year - to - date increase of 2.94% [172][173][175].

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - Chicago futures market saw an overall increase in corn, wheat, and soybean prices on August 20, with corn closing at $4.04 per bushel, up 0.75 cents (0.19%) from the previous trading day [1] - Wheat prices led the gains, with the December contract closing at $5.28 per bushel, up 7 cents (1.34%) [1] - Soybean prices also increased, with the November contract closing at $10.36 per bushel, up 2.25 cents (0.22%) [1] Group 2: Market Influences - The rise in wheat prices was driven by fund short covering, which subsequently lifted corn and soybean futures [1] - Current pricing for U.S. Gulf wheat is approximately $225 per ton, marking a five-year low [1] - The market is awaiting the Pro Farmer Crop Tour to release yield data for Illinois and Iowa [1] Group 3: Export and Production Data - The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported exports of 100,000 tons of corn to Colombia and 125,700 tons to Mexico [1] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a production of 315 million gallons of ethanol last week, a 2% year-on-year decrease, with ethanol inventories rising to 953 million gallons, down 4% year-on-year [1] - The weekly U.S. crude oil consumption was reported at 8.84 million barrels, a 4% decrease [1] Group 4: Weather Impact - A low-pressure system moving south across the central U.S. is expected to cause a significant drop in temperatures in the Midwest and Delta regions [2] - Dry weather is anticipated to continue, with rain expected to begin in the western Midwest on the 23rd, although overall rainfall will be below normal levels [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the upward trend in agricultural futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) on August 20, with all major contracts closing higher [1] Group 2 - Soybean futures increased by 0.17%, closing at 1035.50 cents per bushel [1] - Corn futures rose by 0.25%, ending at 404.25 cents per bushel [1] - Wheat futures saw a significant increase of 1.44%, closing at 528.75 cents per bushel [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - For the粕类market, the strategy is neutral [4] - For the corn market, the strategy is cautiously bearish [6] Core Views - The domestic soybean supply remains abundant, and the fundamentals have not changed significantly. The result of the anti - dumping investigation on rapeseed in the policy end has a significant impact on the price of meal products. The Sino - US trade policy is still uncertain. The Brazilian premium remains strong, and the cost side is still supported [3] - In the domestic corn market, the supply side shows that the channel inventory in Northeast and North China is relatively low, and traders are more active in selling. The demand side indicates that the start - up of deep - processing enterprises is stable, and the inventory continues to decline. Feed enterprises mainly conduct sporadic replenishment. The price has insufficient upward momentum, and the market focuses on the listing of new grains [5] Summary According to Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data -粕类 - Futures: The closing price of the bean meal 2509 contract was 3161 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (+0.19%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2604 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton (+0.54%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the bean meal spot price was 3090 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 3000 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2980 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2720 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [1] - US market: As of the week of August 17, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68%, the flowering rate was 95%, and the pod - setting rate was 82%. As of the week of August 14, the US soybean export inspection volume was 47.4 tons. The 2024/25 US soybean export inspection volume was 4886.8 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.6%, reaching 95.8% of the annual export target [2] Market News and Important Data - Corn - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2170 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (-0.32%) from the previous day; the corn starch 2509 contract was 2563 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton (-1.20%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2730 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4] - Forecast: ASAP Agri expects Ukraine's 2025 corn production to reach 3090 tons, an increase of 330 tons from the previous forecast. As of the week of August 14, the US wheat export inspection volume was 39.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.6%. The 2025/26 US wheat export inspection volume was 481.2 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7% [4] Market Analysis -粕类 - The domestic soybean supply is still abundant, and the fundamentals have no major changes. The result of the rapeseed anti - dumping investigation on the policy end has a significant impact on the price of meal products. The Sino - US trade policy is uncertain, and the Brazilian premium remains strong, providing cost support [3] Market Analysis - Corn - On the supply side, the channel inventory in Northeast and North China is relatively low, and traders are more active in selling. On the demand side, the start - up of deep - processing enterprises is stable, and the inventory continues to decline. Feed enterprises mainly conduct sporadic replenishment. The price has insufficient upward momentum, and the market focuses on the listing of new grains [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [3][7][10] Core Viewpoints - For cotton, the global supply - demand pattern has shifted from loose to tight, but the market doubts the tight pattern. In China, short - term supply shortage supports cotton prices, but weak downstream demand limits the upside. In the medium - term, new cotton listing will suppress prices [2] - For sugar, the Brazilian sugar market has complex changes in exports. The domestic sugar market faces pressure from imported sugar, but potential delays in the new sugar - making season may lead to a price increase in the fourth quarter [4][6][7] - For pulp, the supply pressure remains in the second half of 2025, and the demand is weak both at home and abroad. The pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [9][10] Summary by Product Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: Cotton 2601 contract closed at 14,100 yuan/ton yesterday, down 25 yuan/ton (-0.18%) from the previous day. Spot: 3128B cotton in Xinjiang was 15,080 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton; the national average was 15,243 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton. India will exempt cotton import tariffs from August 19 - September 30 [1] Market Analysis - International: USDA cut global cotton production and ending stocks, but the market doubts the tight pattern, and ICE cotton is in a shock range. Domestic: Zhengzhou cotton rose with the external market. Short - term supply shortage supports prices, but weak downstream demand limits the upside. Medium - term, new cotton listing will bring new pressure [2] Strategy - Neutral. Low inventory and upcoming textile peak season support prices, but policy regulation and long - term industrial factors limit the upside [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: Sugar 2601 contract closed at 5,661 yuan/ton yesterday, down 11 yuan/ton (-0.19%) from the previous day. Spot: Sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,980 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,855 yuan/ton. In July 2025, Brazilian sugar exports decreased, while ethanol exports increased [4] Market Analysis - International: Brazilian sugar production and crushing data are mixed, and some institutions are lowering Brazilian sugar production estimates. Domestic: The sales progress of domestic sugar has slowed down, and the pressure of imported sugar is increasing [6] Strategy - Neutral. Pressured by processed sugar supply, Zhengzhou sugar will oscillate. In the medium - term, low inventory and potential delays in the new sugar - making season may lead to a price increase in the fourth quarter [7] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: Pulp 2511 contract closed at 5,178 yuan/ton yesterday, down 74 yuan/ton (-1.41%) from the previous day. Spot: Chilean silver star coniferous pulp in Shandong was 5,850 yuan/ton; Russian needle pulp was 5,200 yuan/ton. The imported wood pulp spot market was mostly stable, with some prices following the decline of the futures [8] Market Analysis - Supply: In the first half of 2025, wood pulp imports increased, and domestic production capacity will be put into operation in the second half. Port inventory is high, and supply pressure remains. Demand: Weak consumption in Europe and the US, and weak domestic demand due to the off - season. Terminal demand improvement in the second half of the year is limited [9] Strategy - Neutral. The pulp market fundamentals have not improved significantly, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [10]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overnight, US soybeans closed lower, and Dalian soybean meal adjusted and fluctuated; the soybean market sentiment was weak, with adjustment and fluctuation [1] - On August 19, CBOT soybean futures closed lower mainly due to good soybean yield potential found by inspectors and long - position profit - taking [3] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking Futures - DCE soybean 2511: The daytime closing price was 4046 yuan/ton, the night - time closing price was 4019 yuan/ton, with a decline of 10 yuan/ton (-0.25%) during the day and 33 yuan/ton (-0.81%) at night [1] - DCE soybean meal 2601: The daytime closing price was 3161 yuan/ton, the night - time closing price was 3134 yuan/ton, with an increase of 14 yuan/ton (+0.44%) during the day and a decline of 33 yuan/ton (-1.04%) at night [1] - CBOT soybean 11: The price was 1033.25 cents/bushel, a decline of 7.25 cents/bushel (-0.70%) [1] - CBOT soybean meal 12: The price was 295.7 dollars/short - ton, an increase of 4.1 dollars/short - ton (+1.41%) [1] Spot - Shandong: The spot price of soybean meal (43%) was 3070 - 3090 yuan/ton, with different basis prices for different delivery months [1] - East China: The spot price of soybean meal was 3000 yuan/ton (Taizhou Huifu), with various basis prices for different months [1] - South China: The spot price of soybean meal was 3050 - 3110 yuan/ton, with different basis prices for different delivery months [1] Industrial Data - The trading volume of soybean meal was 31.4 million tons/day in the previous trading day and 9.65 million tons/day two trading days ago; the inventory was 97.4 million tons/week in the previous week and 96.09 million tons/week two weeks ago [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - On August 19, CBOT soybean futures closed lower. The ProFarmer organization's inspection found that the number of soybean pods in Ohio and South Dakota was above average on the first day, and traders were waiting for more reports on the second day. The USDA reported that private exporters sold 228,606 tons of US soybeans to Mexico for delivery in the 2025/26 season [3] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal was 0, and that of soybean was 0 (only referring to the price fluctuation of the main contract in the daytime on the reporting day) [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The USDA has adjusted the planting area and yield of new - crop soybeans in the United States, leading to a decrease in the estimated production of new - crop soybeans and a significant tightening of the ending stocks. The prices of soybean meal futures are supported by the cost of imports. For palm oil, the increase in production and exports in Malaysia, along with concerns about Indonesia's production and policy, will cause short - term oscillations in the oil market [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Domestic Futures**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and other varieties are provided, along with their price changes, price differences, and price - to - price difference ratios. For example, the previous day's closing price of soybean oil futures was 8526, with a price increase of 10 and a price increase rate of 0.12%. The current value of the Y9 - 1 spread was 32, compared to a previous value of 28 [1] - **International Futures**: The previous day's closing prices, price changes, and price increase rates of international futures such as BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, and others are presented. For instance, the previous day's closing price of BMD palm oil was 4473, with a price increase of 135 and a price increase rate of 3.11% [1] Spot Market - **Domestic Spot**: The current spot prices, price increase rates, spot basis, and spot price differences of domestic products like soybean oil, palm oil, and others are given. For example, the current spot price of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 8730, with a price increase rate of 0.00%, and the spot basis is 204 [1] - **Import and Profit**: The current and previous values of import profit for varieties such as Malaysian palm oil, U.S. Gulf soybeans, and others are provided. For example, the current import profit of Malaysian palm oil is - 195, compared to a previous value of - 204 [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The current and previous values of warehouse receipts for soybean oil, palm oil, and other varieties are presented. For example, the current value of soybean oil warehouse receipts is 15,310, the same as the previous value [1] Industry Information - **Crop Inspection**: ProFarmer's crop inspection estimates that the corn yield per acre in Ohio in 2025 will be 185.69 bushels, and the average number of soybean pods in Ohio will be 1287.28, showing an increase compared to 2024 [2] - **Protein Meal**: The USDA has adjusted the planting area and yield of new - crop soybeans in the United States, resulting in a decrease in the estimated production of new - crop soybeans from 43.35 billion bushels to 42.92 billion bushels. The export estimate of U.S. soybeans has been further reduced to 17.05 billion bushels, and the ending stocks of U.S. soybean futures in the 25/26 season have decreased to 2.9 billion bushels [2] - **Oils**: According to high - frequency data, the estimated production of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 15, 2025, increased by 0.88% compared to the same period last month, and the export volume increased by 34.5%. Indonesia's policies and actions have also affected the palm oil market [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Bean Meal - The short - term trend is likely to be in a moderately strong oscillation pattern. The price of M2601 is expected to oscillate between 3100 and 3160. The support comes from factors such as the uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas, slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, and relatively low inventory in domestic oil mills. However, the high volume of imported soybeans arriving in August and the spot price discount limit the upside potential [8]. 2.2 Soybeans - The short - term trend is affected by multiple factors and is in a neutral state. The price of A2511 is expected to oscillate between 3960 and 4060. The cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand support the price, while the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production suppress the price [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - Bean meal: In the short - term, it may enter a moderately strong oscillation pattern. The price of M2601 is expected to oscillate between 3100 and 3160. - Soybeans: In the short - term, it is affected by multiple factors and is in a neutral state. The price of A2511 is expected to oscillate between 3960 and 4060 [8][10]. 3.2 Recent News - The progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on US soybean growth and harvest, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations. - The volume of imported soybeans arriving in China in August remains high, and the inventory of oil mill bean meal is at a relatively high level. Affected by the relatively positive data in the August US agricultural report and the rise in rapeseed meal prices, bean meal is in a short - term moderately strong oscillation [12]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns 3.3.1 Bean Meal - Bullish factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low inventory of domestic oil mill bean meal, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas. - Bearish factors: High volume of imported soybeans arriving in July, the end of Brazilian soybean harvesting, and the continuous expected high yield of South American soybeans [13]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - Bullish factors: Cost support from imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans. - Bearish factors: Continuous expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, as well as the expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data 3.4.1 Bean Meal - Spot price in East China is 3000, with a basis of - 161, indicating a discount to futures. - Oil mill bean meal inventory is 100.35 tons, a 3.66% decrease from last week and a 31.74% decrease compared to the same period last year [8]. 3.4.2 Soybeans - Spot price is 4300, with a basis of 254, indicating a premium to futures. - Oil mill soybean inventory is 710.56 tons, an 8.38% increase from last week and a 0.59% decrease compared to the same period last year [10]. 3.5 Position Data - For both bean meal and soybeans, the long positions of the main players are increasing, and capital is flowing in [8][10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Palm oil: Follow macro trends and undergo a corrective adjustment [2][4] - Soybean oil: Lack of driving force from US soybeans, undergo a corrective adjustment [2][4] - Soybean meal: Overnight US soybeans closed lower, Dalian soybean meal adjusted and fluctuated [2][10] - Soybean: Weak atmosphere in the soybean sector, adjusted and fluctuated [2][10] - Corn: Run weakly [2][15] - Sugar: The import volume in July increased significantly year-on-year [2][18] - Cotton: Pay attention to the listing situation of new cotton [2][23] - Eggs: Weak long - term expectations [2][29] - Live pigs: Wait for the spot market verification at the end of the month [2][31] - Peanuts: Pay attention to the situation of new peanuts [2][37] Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil futures had a daily - session closing price increase of 0.57% and a night - session decrease of 1.06%. Soybean oil futures had a daily - session closing price increase of 0.07% and a night - session decrease of 1.99%. The Malaysian Palm Oil Council expects palm oil prices to stay above 4300 ringgit [4][5]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is - 1 [9]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean meal 2601 had a daily - session closing price increase of 0.44% and a night - session decrease of 1.04%. DCE soybean 2511 had a daily - session closing price decrease of 0.25% and a night - session decrease of 0.81%. CBOT soybeans 11 closed down 0.70% [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 19, CBOT soybean futures closed lower due to good soybean yield potential and long - position profit - taking. Private exporters reported selling 228,606 tons of US soybeans to Mexico for 2025/26 delivery [12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of soybean meal and soybean is 0 [12]. Corn - **Fundamental Data**: C2509 had a daily - session closing price decrease of 1.10% and a night - session decrease of 0.27%. C2511 had a daily - session closing price decrease of 0.60% and a night - session decrease of 0.23%. The northern corn collection port price decreased by 20 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong Shekou price decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [13][14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of corn is 0 [16]. Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The raw sugar price was 16.3 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5990 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract price was 5661 yuan/ton. China imported 740,000 tons of sugar in July, an increase of 320,000 tons [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of sugar is 0 [21]. Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: CF2601 had a daily - session closing price decrease of 0.18% and a flat night - session. ICE cotton 12 closed down 0.46%. Cotton spot trading was average, and the cotton yarn market showed a slight recovery [23][24]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of cotton is 0 [27]. Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: Egg 2509 closed down 4.27%, and Egg 2601 closed down 1.64%. The 9 - 1 spread was - 485, a decrease from the previous day [29]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of eggs is 0 [29]. Live Pigs - **Fundamental Data**: The Henan spot price was 13,880 yuan/ton, and the futures prices of different contracts increased year - on - year. The trading volume and open interest of most contracts decreased [33]. - **Market Logic**: The planned slaughter volume of group farms increased in August, demand growth was limited, and the market pressure was high. The short - term support level of LH2509 is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [35]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of live pigs is - 1 [34]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: PK510 had a daily - session closing price decrease of 0.02%, and PK511 had a decrease of 0.38%. New peanuts in some areas are gradually being listed, with limited supply [37][38]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of peanuts is 0 [39].