Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing trend of Northeastern Chinese migrating to Huizhou during winter, highlighting the reasons for this migration and the impact on local culture and economy [4][14]. Group 1: Migration Trends - More Northeasterners are choosing Huizhou as a winter destination, with over 100,000 "migrant" tourists expected from January to February 2025 [4]. - Huizhou is now among the top three winter destinations for Northeasterners, alongside Hainan and Yunnan [4]. Group 2: Living Conditions - Rental prices in Huizhou are significantly lower than in other regions, with sea-view apartments available for as low as 500 yuan per month [6][8]. - Many families are relocating to Huizhou for a more comfortable lifestyle, enjoying the warm climate and lower living costs compared to their hometowns [5][7]. Group 3: Cultural Integration - The influx of Northeasterners has led to a rise in local businesses offering Northeastern cuisine, creating a sense of community and familiarity for the migrants [15][16]. - Northeastern dialects and cultural practices are becoming more prevalent in Huizhou, indicating a growing community [15][17]. Group 4: Challenges Faced - Migrants face challenges such as inadequate medical facilities and transportation issues, which can complicate their living experience in Huizhou [10][11]. - The lack of formalized rental markets and reliable housing information poses difficulties for newcomers seeking accommodation [11]. Group 5: Future Considerations - Many families are contemplating long-term residency in Huizhou, but concerns about children's education and healthcare access remain significant factors in their decision-making [14][12].

编者按：研判"十五五"是近期国内出版界的热点选题，不断有重磅学术论著出炉。国家发展改革委国土 开发与地区经济研究所副研究员徐策博士近日出版新著，以小切口入手，梳理了40多个关键问题并加以 系统分析，作为"十五五"时期中国式现代化建设的战略抓手。徐策博士曾参与国家"十二五"规划中期评 估，国家"十三五"规划、"十四五"规划起草，并主持部分地区"十五五"规划研究起草，具有较为丰富的 政策研究经验。房地产受到全社会高度关注，也是经济增长的重点和难点。作者认为，在经济新旧动能 转换过程中，房地产业转型既是"压舱石"，又是"新引擎"。作者既看到了当前房地产下行的症结所在， 也给出了房地产业转型发展空间广阔的乐观解读。 徐策/文 作为内需的重要组成部分，房地产业将在中长期内始终维持支柱产业地位，是拉动投资、稳定增长、实 现国民经济稳步复苏的关键力量。但也要看到，在房地产市场供求关系发生重大变化的背景下，以往高 负债、粗放型的发展模式已难以为继。"十五五"时期，要"对症下药"、创新模式和业态，推动房地产高 质量发展，有效激发房地产业转型过程中的新动能。 徐策 著 东方出版社 2026年1月 整体上看，中长期内房地产业占GD ...

Core Viewpoint - The article indicates that significant policy measures for the real estate market may be forthcoming in 2026, driven by a recent article from Qiushi.net that emphasizes the importance of stabilizing market expectations [3][4][12]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The article highlights a notable decline in real estate sales and prices, which has had a substantial impact on the economy and financial institutions [6]. - It points out that the traditional real estate development model has reached its limits, as indicated by various economic indicators such as home ownership rates and the ratio of housing prices to income [7]. - The article also addresses misconceptions regarding the declining importance of real estate in the national economy, asserting that real estate remains a critical sector [8]. Group 2: Policy Expectations - The article suggests that future policies may be implemented in a more decisive manner, contrasting with previous gradual approaches [10]. - It emphasizes the need for policy measures to align with market expectations and to avoid piecemeal implementations that could lead to market confusion [9]. - The article indicates that the management of market expectations is becoming a priority for regulators, with a focus on improving communication and monitoring key indicators [12][17]. Group 3: Public Sentiment and Market Confidence - The article discusses the importance of managing public sentiment and market confidence, noting that these psychological factors significantly influence market dynamics [18]. - It highlights recent efforts by various cities to combat negative narratives about the real estate market, including the removal of misleading information and the regulation of accounts spreading panic [17].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the focus on macroeconomic policies in 2026, highlighting the need for increased fiscal support and investment to stimulate economic growth [2][3][5]. Group 2 - Fiscal deficit and government bond issuance are expected to increase, with a projected fiscal deficit rate not lower than 4% and a deficit scale of at least 4.06 trillion yuan [2]. - The new special bonds limit may rise from 4.4 trillion yuan in 2025 to nearly 5 trillion yuan in 2026 to support major project construction [2]. - Monetary policy is anticipated to remain moderately loose, with a CPI target set around 2%, allowing for traditional monetary policy operations like rate cuts [3]. - The focus on expanding domestic demand, particularly through consumption, is highlighted as a primary task for 2026, with policies aimed at enhancing consumer purchasing power [5][6]. - Government investment is expected to play a crucial role in stabilizing fixed asset investment growth, with infrastructure investment set to accelerate due to new major projects [7]. - Real estate policies will focus on inventory reduction, with measures to optimize housing policies and increase support for home purchases [8][9]. - Capital market reforms will aim to deepen investment and financing reforms, enhancing support for technology innovation and improving market attractiveness [10]. - The construction of a unified national market is set to accelerate, with regulations aimed at reducing "involution" competition and improving market access [11]. - The integration of technological and industrial innovation is emphasized, with a focus on expanding AI applications across various sectors [12][13]. - State-owned enterprise reforms will continue, focusing on optimizing the layout of state-owned economies and enhancing modern enterprise systems [14]. - Policies aimed at improving income security and social welfare will be prioritized, with a focus on employment and income distribution [15].

Group 1: Tax Revenue Trends - Since 2013, China's tax revenue growth has consistently lagged behind GDP growth, indicating a downward trend in tax revenue[2] - Tax revenue as a percentage of GDP has declined from 18.7% in 2012 to 13.0% in 2024, marking the lowest level since 2001[15] - The average annual growth rate of tax revenue from 2013 to 2023 is only 4.4%, significantly lower than the 20.3% from 2005 to 2012[20] Group 2: Economic Factors Influencing Tax Revenue - The shift in China's economic development from supply shortages to demand insufficiency has significantly impacted tax revenue growth[22] - The transition from real estate-driven growth to new productive forces has created a mismatch between tax sources and revenue, leading to a decline in tax revenue growth[25] - The reliance on tax cuts and fee reductions has hindered the effectiveness of fiscal policies, resulting in a weak tax base expansion effect[30] Group 3: Structural Challenges - The tax system's design, characterized by overlapping taxation, exacerbates revenue volatility, especially during economic downturns[32] - The progressive nature of certain taxes can amplify revenue fluctuations, causing tax revenue to decline faster than economic value during downturns[34] - The existing tax structure has not adapted to the evolving economic landscape, particularly in the service and digital economy sectors, leading to further revenue challenges[28]

Group 1: Fiscal Policy - In 2026, China will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, with an expected fiscal deficit scale of no less than 4.06 trillion yuan, maintaining a deficit rate of at least 4% [3] - The new special bonds limit may increase from 4.4 trillion yuan in 2025 to nearly 5 trillion yuan in 2026 to support major project construction and real estate market adjustments [3] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The monetary policy in 2026 is expected to remain moderately loose, with a CPI growth target set around 2%, allowing for traditional monetary policy operations like rate cuts [4] - Structural monetary policy operations will focus on expanding domestic demand, supporting technological innovation, and aiding small and medium enterprises [4] Group 3: Consumption and Income Growth - Expanding domestic demand, particularly through boosting consumption, is a primary task for 2026, with policies aimed at enhancing consumer purchasing power [5][6] - The "Urban and Rural Residents Income Growth Plan" is anticipated to be implemented, aiming to enhance the income capacity of residents and stimulate consumption [6] Group 4: Investment and Infrastructure - Fixed asset investment growth is expected to stabilize in 2026, with government investment playing a crucial role in driving this recovery [7] - Infrastructure investment will accelerate with the commencement of new major projects under the "14th Five-Year Plan" [7] Group 5: Real Estate Market - The real estate market will focus on "de-stocking" as a primary task in 2026, with policies to optimize housing policies and increase support for home purchases [8] Group 6: Capital Market Reforms - The capital market will undergo comprehensive reforms to support technological innovation and improve the market's inclusivity and adaptability [9][10] - Measures will be taken to enhance investor experience and broaden channels for long-term capital investment [10] Group 7: Market Competition and Regulation - Efforts to address "involution" in competition will continue, with new regulations expected to enhance market access and fair competition [11] - The establishment of a national unified market construction regulation is anticipated to provide a framework for market entry and quality standards [11] Group 8: Technological and Industrial Innovation - The integration of technological and industrial innovation will be a key focus, with initiatives to promote AI applications across various sectors [12] - The expansion of international technology innovation centers in major regions will facilitate resource integration and innovation [12] Group 9: State-Owned Enterprise Reforms - A new round of state-owned enterprise reforms will focus on optimizing the layout of state-owned economies and enhancing modern enterprise systems [13][14] - The reforms will also emphasize strategic mergers and acquisitions to improve resource allocation efficiency [14] Group 10: Social Welfare and Employment - Policies aimed at improving employment and income distribution will be prioritized, with measures to support job retention and increase minimum wage standards [15]

Summary of Real Estate Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the real estate market performance in 2025 and outlook for 2026, indicating a trend of stabilization after a period of decline [2][4][14]. Key Points 2025 Market Performance - The overall real estate market showed signs of stabilization in 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 39.2% in transaction amounts for 100 major companies in December, despite a significant year-on-year decline [2]. - Major state-owned enterprises like China Overseas and China Resources reported monthly sales nearing 40 billion, while companies like China Merchants and Greentown exceeded 20 billion, with month-on-month growth over 60% [2]. - The top three companies experienced a year-on-year decline of only 8.99%, significantly lower than the overall market trend [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - New housing supply in key cities increased by 16% month-on-month in December, while the total supply for the year decreased by 9% year-on-year, indicating a persistent supply shortage [5][11]. - The new housing transaction area for 2025 saw a cumulative year-on-year increase of 18%, but the decline rate expanded, reflecting ongoing market adjustments [7]. - The new housing supply-demand ratio was approximately 0.8, indicating a continued supply shortage and ongoing inventory reduction [11]. Performance of Major Cities - Chengdu stood out with a total transaction area of nearly 12 million square meters in 2025, significantly outperforming other cities like Tianjin and Wuhan, which had around 5 million square meters [8]. - First-tier cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen showed strong transaction growth, with Beijing's transaction area increasing by 41% and Shenzhen by 45% in December [5]. Second-Hand Housing Market - The second-hand housing market achieved a record transaction volume, with a total of 210 million square meters in 30 key cities, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7% [12]. - The second-hand market exhibited a dual-track system with significant price differences compared to new homes, primarily attracting first-time buyers [13]. Future Outlook - The real estate market is expected to continue facing supply constraints in the short term, particularly in core cities like Beijing and Shanghai, which may lead to competitive advantages for companies with available inventory [6]. - The 2026 outlook suggests a potential stabilization in transaction volumes, with prices expected to remain flat, influenced by a mix of improving demand and ongoing supply constraints [18][19]. Policy and Market Predictions - Future policies are anticipated to focus on stabilizing the market without aggressive stimulus measures, emphasizing urban renewal and improving housing quality [17][22]. - The overall market is expected to maintain a steady state, with high-end residential properties stabilizing first, while second-hand homes may continue to see price adjustments [19]. Inventory and Market Structure - Approximately half of the 30 key cities are still facing significant inventory pressure, particularly in peripheral areas, while core regions maintain lower inventory levels due to strong demand for premium properties [21]. - The overall market structure indicates a need for continued inventory reduction, with a focus on improving the quality of available housing [16]. Additional Insights - The land market has seen a decline in transaction amounts, with a 9% year-on-year decrease, and a concentration of land acquisitions in first and second-tier cities [16]. - The overall market dynamics reflect a complex interplay between supply constraints, demand recovery, and ongoing adjustments in pricing strategies across different segments of the real estate market [14][19].

刘开新任华侨城集团有限公司（以下简称"华侨城集团"）党委常委、副总经理。 刘开新曾任国务院办公厅副处长、调研员、副巡视员，中国广东核电集团有限公司总经理助理、办公厅主任，中国广核电力股份有限 公司核电工程事业部副总经理，中广核工程有限公司党委书记、副总经理，华侨城集团有限公司党委常委、纪委书记，深圳华侨城股 份有限公司纪委书记等职。 华侨城集团有限公司创立于19 85年，是国务院国资委直接管理的大型中央企业，总部设在深圳，已形成以文化、旅游、房地产为主业 的发展格局。 来源： 华侨城集团有限公司网站 End 欢迎分享给你的朋友！ 出品 | 中国能源报（c ne ne rgy） 责编丨李慧颖 华侨城集团有限公司官网"管理团队—经理层"一栏最新信息显示， 刘开新已任华侨城集团有限公司党委常委、副总经理 。 刘开新，男，196 7年出生，大学，硕士。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of stabilizing and improving expectations in the real estate market, marking a critical window for policy intervention and industry transformation as the market faces significant challenges [1][3]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - The real estate market is experiencing a critical phase with unstable expectations, highlighted by a 27.4-month inventory cycle for new homes in 100 cities and a 40.3-month cycle in third and fourth-tier cities. Additionally, second-hand home prices in 70 cities have declined for 19 consecutive months, with a 7.2% year-on-year drop in sales area [3]. - The current environment has led to a strong wait-and-see sentiment among buyers, insufficient investment confidence from real estate companies, and liquidity issues in the market [3]. Group 2: Key Signals from the Article - Signal One: The article reaffirms the core value of the real estate industry, emphasizing its significant financial asset attributes and correcting the notion that its importance is declining. It states that real estate is a crucial industry for the national economy and a major source of household wealth, impacting key economic indicators [5][6]. - Signal Two: The policy approach is shifting towards providing comprehensive support, with a call to eliminate restrictive measures and ensure that new and old policies work in tandem. This aims to break the deadlock in market dynamics and stimulate demand [6][8]. - Signal Three: The article outlines a transition from a high-debt, high-leverage model to one focused on quality improvement and efficiency in existing stock. It identifies new urban residents and young people as key demand drivers and highlights the potential for updating existing housing stock [8][9]. Group 3: Opportunities and Implications - For homebuyers, the current window presents opportunities through policy benefits such as relaxed purchase restrictions, lower mortgage costs, and enhanced support from public funds, leading to reduced barriers to homeownership [9]. - For real estate companies, this period is crucial for transformation, moving away from traditional expansion models towards integrated service offerings, including green and smart housing developments [10]. - The market is expected to see a differentiation in recovery, with core cities likely stabilizing first due to their population and economic advantages, while third and fourth-tier cities will focus on inventory reduction [10][11].

与其说是"马云预言成真"，不如说是时代洪流滚滚向前，楼市变革已然不可避免。近年来，马云先生在社会各界的影响力日渐深远，他过往对房地产、金融 等领域的趋势性研判，事后均被验证具有卓越的前瞻性，因此其公开言论备受关注，甚至被视为投资风向标。那么，坊间流传的"马云预言2026年楼市四大 变化"究竟是否属实？姑且不论真假，我们不妨立足当下楼市发展脉络，前瞻性地探讨2026年可能发生的深刻变革，以便及早洞察，未雨绸缪。 一、民生保障，重于经济引擎 三、精工细作，取代粗放发展 过去二十年，房地产开发商奉行"高周转、高杠杆"的粗放式发展模式，片面追求建设速度和利润最大化，忽视了房屋质量、户型设计以及周边配套设施。然 而，随着市场竞争日趋激烈，以及购房者对居住品质要求的不断提高，粗放式发展模式已难以为继。在政府的引导下，开发商正逐步转变思路，致力于打造 高品质的"好房子"。从2026年开始，房地产行业将迎来一场深刻的变革，精工细作、以人为本的理念将贯穿房屋开发的全过程。高品质住宅将成为市场主 流，赢得越来越多购房者的青睐。 四、多元配置，打破单一格局 长期以来，房地产作为经济增长的强大引擎，驱动着地方经济的发展。然而，随着楼 ...