锂电后市推荐 - 旺季趋势以及固态电池加速产业化投资机 遇 20250907 摘要 宁德时代等头部锂电企业产能利用率高，二季度接近满产，供不应求， 中国企业在欧洲市场份额快速提升，商用车市场表现亮眼，共同推动出 货量和整体预期上调，预示行业景气度提升。 动力电池增长主要受乘用车和商用车市场驱动，纯电车型发展及带电量 提升将推动电池增速超整车销量，纯电轻卡和重卡需求形成有效支撑， 国内独立储能装机量和招标量显著增长，海外大型项目订单亦提供支撑。 电池行业增速强于整车行业，纯电车型及商用车放量将进一步提升电池 行业增速，强现实需求与积极排产周期下，中长期预期向好，推动行业 进入更好发展轨道。 供给端出现紧缺，头部电池厂加快扩产计划，推动港股和 A 股相关企业 提前资本开支，锂电进入新资本开支周期并持续放量，对板块标的及业 绩形成有效支持。 三季度为消费电子、新能源汽车及储能旺季，头部企业满负荷生产，二 线企业通过抢单提高出货弹性，头部企业倾向于接受高价或核心客户订 单，储能业务公司短期业绩或超预期。 Q&A 近期锂电板块的整体走势和表现如何？ 最近锂电板块的涨幅和整体走势非常迅速，股票表现也较为亮眼。头部企业在 ...

固态电池先发优势确立，反内卷驱动风光储行情 20250907 摘要 固态电池技术迭代逻辑清晰，预计 2025-2026 年成为重要投资方向， 头部锂电池企业已启动中试线，中期审核及设备招标进展值得关注，推 动近期行情。 选择固态电池投资标的需评估增量环节（如氯化锂、干法电极、金属负 极），关注下游锂电企业反馈，考察主业传统材料供应及盈利修复潜力 （如天赐材料、璞泰来）。 反内卷推动光伏行业供给侧调整，并向储能、新能源车、风电外溢。储 能市场需求良好，供需改善驱动涨价预期，亿纬锂能、欣旺达、宁德时 代等产能接近满产。 8 月国内新能源汽车批发量同比增长 24%，储能系统招标量达 70 吉瓦 时，美国储能需求强劲。供需关系改善，天赐材料 6 伏 03 锂产能利用 率达 80%，有望涨价。 储能市场受益于强劲需求和涨价预期，工商业储能和户用储能领域值得 关注，德业股份业绩优秀且估值较低，印尼混用光储项目具期权空间。 Q&A 当前电新板块的核心观点是什么？ 当前电新板块的核心观点主要集中在固态电池、反内卷和 i 电源三个方向。固 态电池方面，先导智能宣布其在全国固态供应链条中已完全打通，这标志着设 备端的重要进展。此 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the lithium battery industry and its supply-demand dynamics, particularly in the context of the electric vehicle (EV) and energy storage markets [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Domestic EV Demand Recovery**: The previously pessimistic expectations regarding domestic EV demand have been proven wrong, with leading electronic manufacturers forecasting a shipment growth of 40%-50% and aluminum companies expecting nearly 30% growth, significantly higher than earlier projections of below 20% [2]. - **Energy Storage Market Changes**: The domestic energy storage market has undergone significant changes due to adjustments in business models, with some provinces achieving internal rates of return (IRR) exceeding 10%, and overall growth in energy storage expected to be between 30%-40% [4]. - **Battery Supply Shortages**: There is a structural shortage in the battery segment, with price increases observed in household and large-scale storage units. The profitability window for second-tier battery manufacturers is expected to improve [3][6]. - **Growth in Power Battery Sector**: The domestic power battery sector is projected to grow by approximately 25% next year, with potential upward adjustments to 30% if domestic demand exceeds expectations [5]. Additional Important Content - **Price Trends and Capacity Utilization**: The lithium battery industry is experiencing a tightening of supply, particularly in lithium hexafluorophosphate, which has seen price increases since mid-August due to production line shutdowns. The overall capacity utilization is expected to exceed current levels by the second quarter of next year, contingent on a 25% demand growth [3][6]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Key investment areas include the energy storage chain, battery production, and lithium hexafluorophosphate. There is also potential in negative electrodes, lithium iron phosphate, and structural components due to their valuation recovery potential [9]. - **Solid-State Battery Potential**: Solid-state batteries are anticipated to expand significantly in the coming years, with industry space estimated between 10 to 100 GWh. The third quarter and year-end will be critical for progress and industry chain advancements [10]. - **Lithium and Cobalt Market Dynamics**: The lithium market has seen a price recovery, stabilizing around 73,000 to 74,000 yuan after a previous drop due to supply adjustments. Cobalt prices are expected to rise above 300,000 yuan due to tight supply conditions [15][18]. Conclusion - The lithium battery industry is poised for growth driven by recovering demand in the EV sector and energy storage markets. Structural shortages in battery materials and positive price trends present significant investment opportunities. The focus on solid-state batteries and the dynamics of lithium and cobalt markets further enhance the industry's outlook.

Investment Rating - The report does not provide specific ratings for sub-industries such as power station equipment, electrical equipment, power supply equipment, and new energy power [3]. Core Viewpoints - The overall industry strategy indicates that a new supply-demand cycle is expected to begin, emphasizing the importance of leading companies and flexible directions. The report suggests a continued focus on leading new energy companies during this layout window, with supply-side innovations like "anti-involution" and solid-state batteries, and demand-side growth in areas like energy storage [4][8]. - The core viewpoint of the new energy vehicle supply chain indicates that a new cycle has begun in the mid and downstream sectors, with leading companies making breakthroughs in solid-state battery technology [4][5]. Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicle Supply Chain - Leading companies such as EVE Energy, Peking University, and Xiamen Tungsten Industry are benefiting from advancements in solid-state batteries. EVE Energy's solid-state battery production base in Chengdu is set to achieve a manufacturing capacity of 60Ah by December 2025, with a target energy density of 400Wh/kg by 2025 [4][5]. Energy Storage Industry - Chinese energy storage companies are gaining a significant share of the global market, with a 106% year-on-year increase in global energy storage battery shipments, reaching 258GWh in the first half of 2025. Chinese companies dominate the top ten global energy storage cell shipments, holding a combined market share of 91.2% [5]. - The "anti-involution" strategy is yielding results, with companies like GCL-Poly, Aiko, and LONGi benefiting from government policies aimed at reducing low-price competition in the photovoltaic sector [5][8]. Photovoltaic Supply and Demand - The report anticipates a marginal improvement in photovoltaic supply and demand, with an expected increase in the operating rate of components in September by 2.45% [6][8]. AI and New Energy - The integration of AI and new energy sectors is highlighted, with companies like Zhenyu Technology and Keda Li benefiting from the upward trend in humanoid robots. Tesla's fourth "Master Plan" emphasizes that 80% of its future value will come from robots [8][23].

1，有色/贵金属：紫金矿业，洛阳钼业；中国黄金/老铺黄金/周六福，原因看下图： 吕长顺（凯恩斯） 证书编号：A0150619070003。【以上内容仅代表个人观点，不构成买卖依据，股市有风险，投资需谨慎】 3，人形机器人：拓普，三花，均胜，优必选等。 2，锂电池/固态电池：宁德时代，亿纬锂能、华友钴业等。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from GF Securities highlights a positive change in the A-share market following the completion of the mid-year reports, with significant improvements in order indicators across various industries, particularly in computer, basic chemicals, defense, electric equipment, and automotive sectors [1][6]. Group 1: Market Trends - The market has established a "bull market mentality," making it difficult to reverse the trend once formed. Since late June, changes in the funding landscape have initiated a positive spiral of "fund inflow - profit effect - fund inflow" [1]. - Recent data indicates that foreign capital has net inflowed into AH shares for three consecutive weeks, with an increase in new account openings and net inflows into non-broad-based stock ETFs [1]. Group 2: Financial Health of Companies - A significant positive change noted is the end of a four-year deleveraging cycle, with corporate debt levels stabilizing. The growth rate of contract liabilities and advance receipts has increased for three consecutive quarters [2]. - The combined growth of "contract liabilities + advance receipts" serves as a proxy for order intake, indicating future delivery scales and correlating positively with profit growth in A-shares and typical manufacturing sectors [4]. Group 3: Industry Contributions - The A-share market has seen a substantial improvement in the year-on-year growth of "contract liabilities + advance receipts," with notable contributions from the computer, basic chemicals, defense, electric equipment, and automotive sectors [6]. - The report identifies 25 industries with high year-on-year order growth, including wind power, lithium batteries, semiconductor equipment, and IT services, which have shown continuous improvement over the past 2-3 quarters [10][11]. Group 4: Specific Industry Performance - Key industries with significant year-on-year growth in "contract liabilities + advance receipts" include: - Computer: 24.5% growth, contributing 278.2 billion - Basic Chemicals: 20.2% growth, contributing 115.8 billion - Defense: 19.2% growth, contributing 344.6 billion - Electric Equipment: 15.8% growth, contributing 554.9 billion - Automotive: 15.5% growth, contributing 219.1 billion [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that companies with upward revisions in earnings before and after the disclosure of mid-year performance are primarily concentrated in sectors such as pharmaceuticals (chemical preparations, medical R&D outsourcing, other biological products, raw materials), TMT (digital chip design, IT services III, vertical application software, communication network equipment and devices, gaming III, printed circuit boards, analog chip design), and high-end manufacturing (chassis and engine systems, other specialized equipment, energy and heavy equipment, aerospace equipment III, lithium batteries) [1] - Additional sectors identified with upward earnings revisions include securities, copper, pesticides, other chemical products, and thermal power [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that companies with upward revisions in earnings before and after the disclosure of mid-year performance are primarily concentrated in specific sectors [1] Group 2 - The sectors with significant earnings upgrades include pharmaceuticals, particularly in chemical preparations, medical research outsourcing, other biological products, and raw materials [1] - The TMT sector shows notable performance improvements in areas such as digital chip design, IT services, vertical application software, communication network equipment and devices, gaming, printed circuit boards, and analog chip design [1] - High-end manufacturing also demonstrates upward earnings revisions, especially in chassis and engine systems, other specialized equipment, energy and heavy equipment, aerospace equipment, and lithium batteries [1] - Additional sectors experiencing earnings upgrades include securities, copper, pesticides, other chemical products, and thermal power [1]

Group 1 - The market is expected to rebound next week, with the potential for the ChiNext index to reach new highs [1] - The current bull market is supported by a new economic cycle, with historical bull markets occurring approximately every 10 years in A-shares [1] - The Federal Reserve is likely to initiate a new round of interest rate cuts in mid-September, influenced by rising unemployment and disappointing non-farm payroll data [1] Group 2 - The rebound target for the Shanghai Composite Index is set at 3920 points, which is a significant resistance level derived from previous market highs [2] - Investors should focus on sector rotation during market fluctuations, with potential for recovery in underperforming sectors such as food and beverage, lithium batteries, consumer electronics, CXO, and liquor [2] Group 3 - Opportunities for industry performance inflection points are identified in CXO and medical devices [3] - Individual stock performance inflection points are anticipated in lithium batteries [3] - Future potential hotspots include solid-state batteries, humanoid robots, low-altitude economy, and satellite networking [3]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium iron phosphate (LFP) market is undergoing a critical period characterized by the accelerated elimination of backward production capacity and the rapid release of advanced capacity, indicating a structural adjustment within the industry [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The LFP sector is experiencing a structural adjustment due to the explosive growth of electric vehicles and commercial energy storage, leading to a crowded market and a reversal in supply-demand dynamics [2]. - The "Matthew Effect" is becoming more pronounced, where leading companies with quality production capacity continue to secure orders, while smaller firms struggle for survival [3]. Group 2: Project Developments - Guizhou Anda's 60,000 tons/year LFP project is set to invest 1 billion yuan to establish six production lines, with a total capacity of 150,000 tons of phosphate and 150,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate [6]. - Guizhou Phosphate Zhonghe's 300,000 tons/year LFP project is in the public participation phase, with an initial capacity of 150,000 tons [7]. - Shanxi Yangquan's 100,000 tons/year LFP project is nearing production, with an investment of 1.85 billion yuan and plans for further expansion [8][10]. - Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group's first phase of a 250,000 tons/year LFP project is expected to be operational by September 2025, with an investment of approximately 15 billion yuan [12]. - Sichuan Wanhua Chemical's 120,000 tons/year phosphate expansion project is also underway, with an investment of 110 million yuan [11]. - Hebei Beike New Energy's LFP project aims for an annual production of 2,000 tons, with the environmental impact assessment nearing approval [14]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - The energy storage market's growth is driving continuous optimization of LFP technology in energy density, cycle life, and rate performance, with high-pressure solid LFP technology emerging as a future focus [3][19]. - Recent breakthroughs in LFP technology include the fourth-generation high-pressure solid density LFP products gaining customer recognition, with a shipment ratio of approximately 20% to 30% [17][19].