本文作者为创金合信基金首席经济学家魏凤春 上期首席视点从政府纠正市场失灵的角度提出了需要从基本面出发进行布局，其背景是预计2026年波动 加剧是市场基本的特征，本周金银铜罕见的波动验证了这一特征。过渡期的市场，周期的错位与驱动力 的转换是市场波动的主要来源，如何通过相对确定性的策略来应对市场的波动是本首席视点着重讨论的 内容。2026年市场的本质是五大周期共振下的结构重塑，波动源于周期错位，机会藏于周期协同。面对 相对高波动环境，关键在于把握政策托底、产业分化、物价回升等较为确定性的逻辑，以周期为纲、以 盈利为锚，应对波动、把握主线。 一、波澜壮阔的一周 在西方经济学和金融学占主导的金融市场，源远流长的中华文化对现代市场的前瞻性判断越来越受到投 资者的关注。2026年岁在丙午，干支为赤马红羊，过去的一周，市场波动剧烈。虽然说波动是市场的常 态，但凡事都有个度，超过了这个度，量变引起质变，节奏和趋势的边界就模糊了。在之前的首席视点 中，我们已经指出：从周期视角与市场运行规律看，波动加大将成为贯穿全年的核心特征。这并非单纯 是周期玄学在起作用，而是国内市场驱动力切换、全球秩序重构与货币政策不确定性共同作用的必然结 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [2][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for commodity prices, particularly in the context of copper and aluminum, with expectations of continued strength in these markets [7][8]. - It emphasizes the resilience of copper prices, which have shown a week-on-week increase, indicating a tight supply situation [7]. - The report notes that the steel industry is seeing price adjustments from southern steel mills, which may lead to improved profit margins [8]. Summary by Sections Copper - Copper prices remain resilient, with LME and SHFE copper prices recorded at 133,370 and 103,680 USD/ton respectively, showing week-on-week increases of 3.5% and 2.3% [7]. - The report suggests focusing on companies with rich copper resource reserves such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Nonferrous Mining [11]. Aluminum - The aluminum sector is expected to maintain its resilience, with LME and SHFE aluminum prices at 3,110 and 24,560 USD/ton, respectively [7]. - Recommended companies include Shenhuo Group, Yun Aluminum, China Aluminum, and Nanshan Aluminum [11]. Precious Metals - The report indicates that precious metals have experienced volatility, with SHFE gold and COMEX gold prices at 1,161.4 CNY/gram and 4,907.5 USD/ounce, respectively [7]. - It suggests monitoring companies like Zijin Gold International, Shandong Gold, and China National Gold for potential investment opportunities [11]. Minor Metals - Tungsten prices have increased by 12.3% week-on-week, with significant price adjustments noted in the tungsten sector [7]. - The report recommends focusing on rare earth companies such as Northern Rare Earth and China Rare Earth, as well as tungsten companies like Zhongtung High-tech and Xiamen Tungsten [11]. Steel - The steel industry is seeing proactive price increases from southern steel mills, with SHFE rebar and hot-rolled coil prices at 3,128 and 3,288 CNY/ton, respectively [8]. - Companies to watch include Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and Nanjing Steel, particularly those with superior product structures [11].

（文章来源：新华财经） 分地区看，六大地区中，除西北地区重点企业钢材库存较上一旬有所增长外，其它地区均有不同程度下 降。 新华财经北京2月5日电中国钢铁工业协会5日公布的数据显示，2026年1月下旬，重点统计钢铁企业（以 下简称"重点企业"）钢材库存量1471万吨，环比上一旬减少142万吨，下降8.8%；比年初增加57万吨， 增长4.0%；比上月同旬增加57万吨，增长4.0%；比2025年同旬减少64万吨，下降4.2%，比2024年同旬 增加251万吨，增长20.6%。 ...

其中，当周螺纹产量191.68万吨，较上周减少8.15万吨，降幅4.08%；螺纹厂库153.65万吨，较上周增加 4.52万吨，增幅3.03%；螺纹社库365.92万吨，较上周增加39.52万吨，增幅12.11%。整体来看，当周螺 纹表需147.64万吨，较上周减少28.76万吨，降幅16.3%。 新华财经北京2月5日电我的钢铁（Mysteel）5日发布最新的钢材库存产量数据显示，截至2月5日当周， 国内螺纹钢产量由增转降，厂库连续三周增加，社库连续第五周增加，表需连续三周下降。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Core Insights - ArcelorMittal reported resilient financial performance in 2025 despite significant headwinds, with an EBITDA of $6.5 billion and a net income of $3.2 billion, reflecting strong operational improvements and strategic investments [1][4][16]. Financial Performance - In 4Q 2025, sales decreased by 4.4% to $15.0 billion compared to 3Q 2025, primarily due to lower shipments [5][25]. - For the full year 2025, sales decreased by 1.7% to $61.4 billion, driven by a 2.3% reduction in average steel selling prices [16]. - Operating income for 12M 2025 was $3.6 billion, a 9.6% increase from $3.3 billion in 12M 2024, reflecting a positive impact from exceptional items [17]. - EBITDA for 12M 2025 decreased by 7.3% to $6.5 billion, influenced by weaker results in North America and lower contributions from India and Brazil [18]. - The company generated $1.9 billion in investable cash flow over the past 12 months, consistent with the previous year [1][24]. Safety and Sustainability - The company has made significant progress in safety performance, with a lost time injury frequency rate (LTIF) improving to 0.65x in 2025 from 0.70x in 2024 [10][11]. - ArcelorMittal is in the second year of a three-year safety transformation program aimed at establishing a consistent safety culture across the Group [1][11]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is well-positioned to benefit from a balanced and fair European steel market, with expectations of increased domestic demand due to new trade measures [2][8]. - ArcelorMittal is focusing on capturing opportunities in the energy transition, with plans to build renewable energy capacity of 2.8GW by the end of 2028 and expand low carbon-intensity steel production [2][15]. - Strategic growth projects contributed $0.7 billion to EBITDA in 2025, with an additional $1.6 billion anticipated from ongoing projects [2][9]. Capital Management - The Board proposed to increase the annual base dividend to $0.60 per share for FY 2026, reflecting improved earnings [1][53]. - The company repurchased 8.8 million shares for $262 million in 2025, reducing the fully diluted share count by 38% since September 2020 [1][54]. Outlook - The company expects world ex-China apparent steel demand to grow by 2% in FY 2026, with production and shipments anticipated to increase across all regions [4][8]. - Capital expenditures for 2026 are projected to be between $4.5 billion and $5.0 billion, supporting growth initiatives [4].

| | | | | | | 钢材: | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 周三螺纹热卷收涨。夜盘收跌。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、2 月 3 日上午，国家主席习近平在北京人民大会堂同来华进行国事访问的乌拉圭 | | | | | 总统奥尔西举行会谈。会谈后，两国元首共同见证签署投资促进、贸易等领域 10 | | | | | 余份合作文件。 | | | | | 2、2 月 3 日，上海市市长龚正作《政府工作报告》。龚正说，综合各方面因素，建 | | | | | 议今年全市经济社会发展的主要预期目标是：全市生产总值增长 5%左右。 | | | | | 3、据 Mysteel 不完全统计，截至 2 月 3 日，已有 11 个省份公布 2026 年省级重点 | | | | | 项目投资计划，合计 7693 个项目。其中，广东、湖北、山西、北京等 8 个省份公 | | 黑色建材 | 钢材 | 震荡 | 布年度计划投资，合计约 4.34 万亿元。 | | | | | 4、中指研究院数据显示，1 月 20 城二手住宅共成交 1 ...

黑色建材日报 2026-02-05 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3110 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 11 元/吨（0.354%）。当日注册仓单 16931 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 179.82 万手，环比减少 6899 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总价格 为 3160 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3230 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合约收盘 价为 3274 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 9 元/吨（0.275%）。 当日注册仓单 199447 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合 约持仓量为 148.27 万手 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways [2] - Iron Ore: Short on rallies [5] - Coking Coal and Coke: Sideways [7] - Thermal Coal: No strategy provided [8] 2. Core Views - The steel market is in the off - season with limited overall contradictions. The demand for steel products is weakening, inventory is accumulating, and attention should be paid to winter storage replenishment and raw material price changes [1] - The iron ore market is cautious. Although the supply is at a high level and the downstream demand is fair, the demand support will weaken as winter storage approaches the end, and attention should be paid to subsequent negotiations and steel mill replenishment [3][4] - The coking coal and coke market has supply - side disturbances. Coke production is stable, but demand is restricted. Coking coal supply is tightening, and demand is mainly for on - demand procurement. Attention should be paid to iron water output and finished product prices [6][7] - The thermal coal market has weakening supply and demand near the Spring Festival. The medium - and long - term supply is in a loose pattern, and attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and replenishment [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The steel futures market declined yesterday. The rebar futures main contract closed at 3,110 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3,274 yuan/ton. The spot building materials market is in the off - season, with a national building materials transaction volume of 36,100 tons [1] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: In the off - season, the overall contradiction in the steel market is limited. The demand for rebar is weakened by the slow - down in market digestion and weak purchasing sentiment. The demand for hot - rolled coils has limited actual pulling effect. The steel inventory is accumulating before the festival, and the supply - demand pressure is slightly increasing [1] - **Strategy**: Sideways for single - side trading, no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The iron ore price fluctuated slightly yesterday. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan ports fluctuated slightly. Traders' quotation enthusiasm was average, and steel mills' purchases were mainly for rigid demand. The total transaction volume of iron ore at major national ports was 1.034 million tons, a 14% increase from the previous day [3] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The global iron ore shipment volume increased slightly this period. Australian shipments decreased, while Brazilian shipments increased significantly. The arrival volume of imported iron ore remained stable at a high level. The molten iron output is at a medium - high level in the same period, and the downstream demand is fair. The total inventory of 15 ports increased slightly, and steel mill inventories continued to grow. There is uncertainty in the long - term iron ore market. As winter storage for steel mills approaches the end, the demand support will weaken [3][4] - **Strategy**: Short on rallies for single - side trading, no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The coking coal futures main contract closed at 1,209 yuan/ton, and the coke main contract closed at 1,770 yuan/ton. The coking coal auction prices showed mixed trends, and the market sentiment was average. Coking plants are mainly in normal production, with a good shipment enthusiasm and low inventory. Some coking plants want to raise prices further. Steel mills' purchases are mainly for rigid demand, and speculative demand is weak. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal is in the range of 1,030 - 1,040 yuan/ton [6][7] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: For coke, after the first round of price increase, coking enterprises' profits have recovered, and production remains stable. However, due to the weakening of the terminal market, steel transactions have shrunk, prices have declined, and molten iron output has been suppressed. Steel mills mainly purchase on - demand. For coking coal, domestic coal mines are gradually entering the holiday period, and the supply is tightening. Coking enterprises' replenishment is almost complete, and the market is mainly for on - demand procurement [7] - **Strategy**: Sideways for both coking coal and coke single - side trading, no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, coal prices are weak. Long - term agreement shipments are stable, but overall demand is declining as factories go on holiday and pre - Spring Festival replenishment is almost over. Some coal mines have sales difficulties and inventory pressure. At ports, the market is quiet, and prices are stable. The import market is relatively strong, and there is an expected reduction in future imports [8] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: Near the Spring Festival, both supply and demand of thermal coal are weakening, and coal prices are fluctuating. In the medium - and long - term, the supply pattern remains loose, and attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and replenishment [8] - **Strategy**: No strategy provided [8]

| | | 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 5 日星期四 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 Morning session notice 早盘提示 | | | | 铁矿: 【行情复盘】 周三铁矿收跌。夜盘收跌。 【重要资讯】 1、2 月 3 日上午，国家主席习近平在北京人民大会堂同来华进行国事访问的乌拉圭 总统奥尔西举行会谈。会谈后，两国元首共同见证签署投资促进、贸易等领域 10 余份合作文件。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黑色建材 | 铁矿 | 震荡 | 2、2 月 3 日，上海市市长龚正作《政府工作报告》。龚正说，综合各方面因素，建 议今年全市经济社会发展的主要预期目标是：全市生产总值增长 5%左右。 3、据 Mysteel 不完全统计，截至 2 月 3 日，已有 11 个省份公布 2026 年省级重点 项目投资计划，合计 7693 个项目。其中，广东、湖北、山西、北京等 8 个省份公 布年度计划投资，合计约 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The steel market is in a state of seasonal contraction in trading volume, with prices remaining stable and the market gradually entering a dormant state. It is advisable to approach it with a unilateral oscillatory mindset, and the hot-rolled coil basis is favorable for spot-futures positions, allowing for rolling operations in hot-rolled coil spot-futures positive spreads [2]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese fluctuate with market sentiment. In the short term, the market is sentiment-driven, and prices are expected to oscillate [3]. - The suspension of spot coal exports by Indonesian miners has led to a significant increase in coal-related assets. For coking coal and coke, it is recommended to seize the opportunity of the rising market to establish spot-futures positive spread positions [6]. - The long-term pressure on iron ore inventory remains significant. It is suggested that medium- and long-term investors enter short positions at resistance levels [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Spot prices are stable, trading volume continues to decline, and the market is gradually entering a dormant state. Due to seasonal factors, supply and demand are both weak. Steel mills have profit margins and the intention to resume production, but the actual resumption may be slow. Traders are not very willing to take open positions for winter storage and are more suitable to participate through basis trading. The strategy is to view it with a unilateral oscillatory mindset, and the hot-rolled coil basis is favorable for spot-futures positions, allowing for rolling operations in hot-rolled coil spot-futures positive spreads [2]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Prices fluctuate with market sentiment. Fundamentally, supply and demand are both weak. In the short term, the market is sentiment-driven, and prices are expected to oscillate. Macroscopically, domestic macro policies are being introduced at an accelerated pace, and industrial policies are expected to have an impact on supply and cost support [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - The suspension of spot coal exports by Indonesian miners has led to a significant increase in coal-related assets. The coke market is running stably, and coking coal auctions show mixed results. The market has entered the off-season, and industrial data is generally weak. It is recommended to seize the opportunity of the rising market to establish spot-futures positive spread positions [6]. Iron Ore - The long-term pressure on iron ore inventory remains significant. Steel mills' iron ore restocking is nearly complete, and after the positive effects of restocking are fully digested, the pressure from port inventory will still be the root cause of iron ore pressure. It is suggested that medium- and long-term investors enter short positions at resistance levels [7].