证券研究报告：国防军工|点评报告 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | --- | | 收盘点位 | 1508.79 | | --- | --- | | 52 周最高 | 1712.48 | | 52 周最低 | 1113.62 | 研究所 分析师:鲍学博 SAC 登记编号:S1340523020002 Email:baoxuebo@cnpsec.com 分析师:王煜童 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070004 Email:wangyutong@cnpsec.com 行业相对指数表现（相对值） -13% -8% -3% 2% 7% 12% 17% 22% 27% 32% 2024-06 2024-08 2024-11 2025-01 2025-03 2025-06 国防军工 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 近期研究报告 《中邮军工周报 5 月第 4 周：美国防预 算将达 1 万亿美元，创历史新高》 - 2025.05.26 行业点评：硝化棉需求旺盛，出口量价齐升 事件 2025 年 1-4 月，我国硝化棉出口数量为 760 万吨，同比增长 39%； 出口金额为 2.50 亿 ...

金十数据6月9日讯，美股上周五三大股指全线上涨，中国金龙指数亦低开高走。港股盘初表现强势，恒 指早盘高开185点报23977点，买盘随即涌入，一度站上两万四关口最多涨超373带你报24166点。截至收 盘，恒指早盘收涨1.01%，科指早盘收涨2.03%，恒指大市成交额放大至1518亿港元。盘面上，影视娱 乐、医药外包、超市便利店股走强，新消费股再度拉升，军工、芯片股表现亮眼；贵金属、锂电池、汽 车股走低，有色金属、服装零售股再度回调。个股方面，中国稀土(00769.HK)涨超40%，布鲁可 (00325.HK)涨超18%，金蝶国际(00268.HK)涨超7.5%，腾讯音乐(01698.HK)涨超6%，快手(01024.HK)、 美团(03690.HK)涨超5%；紫金矿业(02899.HK)跌超4%，周大福(01929.HK)、比亚迪股份(01211.HK)跌 超2.6%。 港股午评：恒指收涨1.01% 大市重返两万四关口 ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a strong upward movement on June 9, with the Shanghai Composite Index briefly returning to 3400 points, and nearly 3700 stocks in the green. The half-day trading volume reached 823 billion, an increase of 764 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] Factors Influencing Market Strength - The strengthening of indices is attributed to three main factors: 1. Central Huijin becoming the actual controller of eight companies including Xinda Securities, which is expected to drive a new round of mergers and acquisitions in the securities industry [2][5] 2. The Shanghai Stock Exchange held a meeting encouraging listed companies to increase dividend payouts, thereby enhancing investment value [3] 3. The Ministry of Commerce stated that the export control of rare earths aligns with international practices, having approved a certain number of compliant applications [4] Sector Performance - **Brokerage Sector**: The "bull market leader" brokerage stocks surged, with Xinda Securities hitting the daily limit. Other stocks like Yong'an Futures and Nanhua Futures also reached their daily limits, driven by the announcement of Central Huijin's control over several securities firms [5] - **Pharmaceutical Sector**: The innovative drug and CRO sectors saw significant gains, with multiple stocks such as Zhongseng Pharmaceutical and Ruizhi Pharmaceutical hitting their daily limits. Analysts predict a sustained recovery in the pharmaceutical market, highlighting structural opportunities [6] - **Rare Earth Permanent Magnet Sector**: This sector has shown repeated strength, with stocks like Zhongke Magnetic Materials reaching a 20% limit up. The Ministry of Commerce's comments on export controls have positively influenced this sector [7] - **Solid-State Battery Sector**: Stocks in this sector, including Yinglian Co. and Dexin Technology, also saw gains, with predictions of significant production increases by 2030 [8] Institutional Insights - **CITIC Securities**: The firm suggests that the upcoming bull market entry point may occur in late Q3 to Q4, but a transitional phase of 3-4 months is expected. They emphasize the need for more concrete measures to boost domestic demand and caution against macroeconomic uncertainties [10] - **CITIC Construction Investment**: They highlight June as a critical period for dividend releases, recommending tracking fund flows and industry conditions to identify high-dividend stock opportunities [11] - **Orient Securities**: They believe that despite external negative factors, internal support is strong, suggesting limited downside for stock indices and recommending patience for opportunities in sectors like technology and strategic metals [12]

上天天基金APP搜索【777】注册即可 领98元券包 ， 优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先 得！ 周末大事 何立峰将访问英国并举行中美经贸磋商机制首次会议 外交部发言人宣布：应英国政府邀请，中共中央政治局委员、国务院副总理何立峰将于6月8 日至13日访问英国。其间，将与美方举行中美经贸磋商机制首次会议。 商务部：对稀土实施出口管制符合国际通行做法 已依法批准一定数量的合规申请 商务部新闻发言人就中重稀土出口管制措施答记者问表示，稀土相关物项具有军民两用属 性，对其实施出口管制符合国际通行做法。随着机器人、新能源汽车等行业发展，各国对中 重稀土在民用领域的需求量正持续增长。中国作为负责任的大国，充分考虑各国在民用领域 的合理需求与关切，依法依规对稀土相关物项出口许可申请进行审查，已依法批准一定数量 的合规申请，并将持续加强合规申请的审批工作。中方愿就此进一步加强与相关国家的出口 管制沟通对话，促进便利合规贸易。 商务部：目前中欧双方电动汽车案价格承诺磋商进入最后阶段 但仍需双方努力 商务部新闻发言人就王文涛部长赴法国期间与欧盟委员会贸易和经济安全委员谢夫乔维奇会 谈答记者问。 问：电动汽车反补贴案的价格承诺 ...

证券研究报告：国防军工|行业周报 发布时间：2025-06-09 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | 1508.79 | | 52 周最高 | 1712.48 | | 52 周最低 | 1113.62 | 行业相对指数表现 -13% -8% -3% 2% 7% 12% 17% 22% 27% 32% 2024-06 2024-08 2024-11 2025-01 2025-03 2025-06 国防军工 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:鲍学博 SAC 登记编号:S1340523020002 Email:baoxuebo@cnpsec.com 分析师:马强 SAC 登记编号:S1340523080002 Email:maqiang@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《中邮军工周报 5 月第 4 周：美国防预 算将达 1 万亿美元，创历史新高》 - 2025.05.26 河北一硝化棉厂商煮洗釜爆炸，硝化棉供应紧张或 进一步加剧 ⚫ 投资要点 2025 年 5 月 30 日 18 时 20 分，衡水市武邑县建民纤维素有限 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the recent rebound in technology sectors, particularly in military, pharmaceutical, and TMT industries, with the Sci-Tech Innovation Board ETF (589630) rising nearly 1.5% [1] - The A-share merger and acquisition market has been active this year, with significant participation from Sci-Tech Innovation Board companies, especially in sectors like biomedicine, semiconductors, and new-generation information technology [1] - Data indicates that out of 86 major restructuring events in 2025, 18 involved Sci-Tech Innovation Board companies, showing a significant increase compared to the same period last year [1] Group 2 - Dongwu Securities emphasizes the importance of self-reliance in technology, focusing on sectors such as artificial intelligence, autonomous control, new energy technology, aerospace information technology, and data elements [1] - In aerospace information technology, areas like low-altitude economy, satellites, and commercial space are highlighted as key focus points [1] - The report suggests that the AI sector should concentrate on AI agents, AI applications (like standalone software and smart terminals), humanoid robots, and autonomous driving [1] Group 3 - Western Securities notes that the level of merger and acquisition activity reflects the direction of the industrial cycle, with the highest number of mergers occurring in the automotive, electronics, and machinery sectors in 2024 [2] - The report indicates that the trends in automotive intelligence, semiconductor self-control, and high-end manufacturing are accelerating technological upgrades and industry evolution [2] - It is suggested that if AI commercialization leads to performance improvements through mergers and acquisitions, it could create a mainline market trend; otherwise, it may only represent a short-term thematic opportunity [2] Group 4 - The Sci-Tech Innovation Index ETF from Guotai (code: 589630) tracks the Sci-Tech Innovation Index (code: 000680), which includes representative stocks from the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, with an average market capitalization of approximately 11 billion [2] - The index focuses on technology innovation companies, covering more early-stage innovative firms and emphasizing hard technology sectors [2] - Investors without stock accounts can consider Guotai's linked ETFs for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board Comprehensive ETF [2]

证券研究报告：国防军工|行业周报 发布时间：2025-06-09 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 行业相对指数表现 -13% -8% -3% 2% 7% 12% 17% 22% 27% 32% 2024-06 2024-08 2024-11 2025-01 2025-03 2025-06 国防军工 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:鲍学博 SAC 登记编号:S1340523020002 Email:baoxuebo@cnpsec.com 分析师:马强 SAC 登记编号:S1340523080002 Email:maqiang@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《中邮军工周报 5 月第 4 周：美国防预 算将达 1 万亿美元，创历史新高》 - 2025.05.26 | 行业基本情况 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | 1508.79 | | 52 周最高 | 1712.48 | | 52 周最低 | 1113.62 | 国防军工行业报告 河北一硝化棉厂商煮洗釜爆炸，硝化棉供应紧张或 进一步加剧 ⚫ 投资要点 2025 年 5 月 30 日 18 时 20 分，衡水市武 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the Chinese defense and military industry [5] Core Insights - The military trade is expected to become a second growth curve for the industry, with Indonesia considering the procurement of Chinese J-10 fighter jets due to their high performance and cost-effectiveness [27] - The report highlights that the recent geopolitical tensions have increased military spending globally, creating new opportunities for China's military exports [6][27] - The domestic aviation industry is expected to accelerate the development of indigenous engines due to U.S. export restrictions on commercial engines [6] Summary by Sections Market Trends - The defense and military industry index rose by 0.41% during the week, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 1.13% [10][11] - The defense and military industry ranked 24th out of 31 sectors in terms of weekly performance [13] News and Announcements - Indonesia is evaluating the feasibility of purchasing Chinese J-10 fighter jets to modernize its air force while considering budget constraints [27] - The U.S. has restricted the export of key technologies, which is expected to accelerate the domestic development of aviation engines in China [6] - The report notes that military trade could drive performance in various segments of the supply chain, including core subsystems and components [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on upstream components and key materials, highlighting specific companies such as Zhihua Technology, Aerospace Electric, and Xibu Superconductor for potential investment [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the defense and military industry [3] Core Insights - The new forms of warfare are driving demand for advanced weaponry, characterized by "intelligent, systematic, and informational" capabilities, which are becoming critical for major power strategic competition [2][25] - Global military spending is projected to reach $2.718 trillion in 2024, marking a 9.4% year-on-year increase, the highest growth since the Cold War, and has been rising for ten consecutive years, providing a solid material foundation for the military industry [2][26][27] - The report highlights the increasing importance of low-cost military equipment, as demonstrated in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, prompting nations to focus on cost-effectiveness in military procurement [28][29] Summary by Sections New Warfare Forms Create New Demands - Recent international conflicts have highlighted the need for new types of weaponry, with a focus on unmanned systems, information warfare, and electronic warfare [2][25] - The military industry is experiencing a transformation driven by the evolving nature of warfare, leading to new demands and trade systems [2][3] Global Military Spending Trends - Military spending is expected to grow significantly, with the top five spenders being the USA, China, Russia, Germany, and India [26][27] - The report notes that military spending is a primary source of funding for the military industry, particularly for equipment expenses [27] Cost-Effectiveness in Military Procurement - The report emphasizes the need for low-cost solutions in military equipment, as seen in the effectiveness of low-cost drones during high-intensity conflicts [28][29] - It discusses the importance of considering total lifecycle costs, including procurement, maintenance, and operational costs, in military equipment development [29][30] Index Component Adjustments - Recent adjustments to major indices have resulted in several military industry stocks being added, which may lead to increased market attention and potential capital inflows [12] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as unmanned equipment, military intelligence, satellite internet, and electronic countermeasures for investment opportunities [15][16] - Specific companies and sectors within the military equipment supply chain, such as fighter jets, drones, and missile systems, are highlighted as potential investment targets [15][16]

Core Viewpoint - The military industry sector is experiencing significant capital inflow, with the military ETF (512660) seeing over 500 million yuan in net inflows for five consecutive trading days [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Indonesian government is evaluating the feasibility of purchasing Chinese-made J-10 fighter jets, indicating a potential increase in military trade for China [1] - Geopolitical tensions are rising, leading to increased interest in domestic weapons, which may enhance China's global military trade market share [1] Group 2: Industry Fundamentals - The military sector's gross and net profit margins have rebounded in Q1 2025, supported by both international and domestic conditions that may improve annual performance [1] - China is in the final year of its 14th Five-Year Plan, with significant defense construction tasks pending completion, and long-term goals set for 2027 and 2035, suggesting a release of future demand [1] - China's military expenditure as a percentage of GDP is below 1.5%, lower than the average of major military powers, indicating substantial room for growth in defense spending [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The military sector is expected to see high certainty in domestic demand growth due to the confluence of the 14th Five-Year Plan, centenary military goals, and the push for self-sufficient domestic alternatives [1] - Investors interested in the military sector are encouraged to monitor opportunities related to the military ETF (512660) [1]