Group 1 - Pork stocks experienced a significant upward trend, with Bangji Technology (603151) hitting the daily limit increase [1] - Shennong Group (605296) rose over 6%, indicating strong market interest [1] - Juxing Agriculture (603477) and Luoniushan (000735) both increased by more than 4%, reflecting positive sentiment in the sector [1] - Zhenghong Technology (000702) and Wens Foodstuff Group (300498) also saw gains, contributing to the overall bullish trend in pork-related stocks [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The spot price of live pigs will fluctuate and adjust. The supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly and continuously. The fat - standard price difference may strengthen, which will support pig prices. The price of the 2509 contract is currently in a relatively reasonable range, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures End - **主力合约基差情况**: The main contract (LH2509) of live pigs fluctuated and adjusted this week. On July 18, 2025, the benchmark basis of the main contract was 245 yuan/ton, down from 455 yuan/ton on July 11 [2][3]. - **各合约价格变化情况**: The prices of far - month contracts fluctuated and adjusted [5]. - **月间价差变化**: The contract spreads fluctuated and adjusted [8][11]. 2. Spot End - **猪价与宰量**: This week, the slaughter volume increased slightly while the price decreased [14]. - **区域价差**: The regional price differences were relatively reasonable [16]. - **肥标价差**: The fat - standard price difference fluctuated and adjusted overall. Attention should be paid to whether the fat - standard difference can strengthen seasonally. If so, it will weaken the market's willingness to reduce weight and even prompt the market to increase weight [18]. - **鲜销与毛白价差**: Terminal consumption was relatively stable year - on - year [20]. - **相关产品比价与鲜冻价差**: The cost - performance of pork was average. The fresh - frozen price difference of No. 2 meat strengthened. If it continues to strengthen, it may reduce the substitution of fresh products for frozen products [22]. - **养殖利润**: The self - breeding and self - raising profit was still considerable, while the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was slightly in the red [24]. - **出栏体重**: The average slaughter weight decreased slightly this week. Attention should be paid to whether the weight reduction can continue [26]. 3. Capacity End - **能繁母猪存栏量**: According to Ministry of Agriculture data, at the end of May, the national inventory of reproductive sows was 40.42 million, a month - on - month increase of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. Yongyi Consulting data showed that in June, the inventory of reproductive sows in Sample 1 increased by 0.22% month - on - month, and My steel data showed that in June, the inventory of reproductive sows in its sample of large - scale enterprises increased by 0.29% month - on - month [28]. - **母猪淘汰情况**: The price of culled sows weakened this week. The slaughter volume of culled sows increased month - on - month in June but remained at a low level [30]. - **母猪生产效率与新生健仔数**: In June, the number of healthy piglets born decreased by 1.26% month - on - month (the previous value was an increase of 2.91%), corresponding to a halt in the increase and a turn to a decline in the number of slaughtered live pigs in December this year [32]. - **母猪、仔猪补栏积极性**: This week, the price of 15 - kg piglets and 50 - kg binary sows remained stable [34]. 4. Slaughter End - **屠宰量与屠宰利润等**: The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. In May, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 32.16 million, a month - on - month increase of 4.5% and a year - on - year increase of 20.6%. The frozen product market will gradually enter the destocking stage, and its impact on pig prices will change from positive to neutral and negative [36]. 5. Import End - In June 2025, the pork import volume was about 90,000 tons, basically the same as the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and its impact on domestic pig prices is relatively limited [39].

Group 1 - The A-share pork sector continues to rise, with Bangji Technology increasing by over 8% [1] - Other companies such as Shennong Group, Juxing Agriculture, Luoniushan, Dongrui Shares, Zhenghong Technology, and Wens Foodstuff also experienced gains [1]

Core Insights - The agricultural and rural economy in China shows strong resilience, contributing significantly to economic stability and livelihood security [1][2]. Group 1: Stability in Grain Supply - Summer grain production reached 299.48 billion jin, marking the second-highest yield historically, ensuring food security [2]. - The autumn grain harvest, which accounts for 75% of the annual grain production target of approximately 1.4 trillion jin, is crucial for achieving this year's goals [2]. - Strategies are in place to enhance yield and mitigate losses from natural disasters as the autumn harvest approaches [2]. Group 2: Abundance in Vegetable Supply - There has been an increase in both the planting area and production of vegetables in the first half of the year, with 11 million acres planted and a production of 26.23 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth [2]. - Measures are being implemented in regions like Shandong to ensure vegetable supply amidst high temperatures, including night harvesting and pre-cooling transportation [2]. - The dynamics of pork production and consumption, which account for about 60% of total meat consumption, are being monitored to stabilize prices and ensure profitability for farmers [2]. Group 3: Rural Economic Growth and Tourism - The agricultural sector's performance is contributing to increased rural incomes and a harmonious rural environment, with rural tourism becoming a popular choice for urban residents [3]. - The rural tourism industry is evolving, providing tangible benefits and enhancing the quality of life in rural areas [3]. - The second half of the year will focus on advancing agricultural technology, fostering leading agricultural enterprises, and ensuring a successful grain harvest [3].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the banking industry and the broader economic context in China, particularly focusing on the "脱虚向实" (devirtualization) policy aimed at promoting industrial development while addressing issues in the service sector [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Policy Shift and Economic Impact** - The "脱虚向实" policy has led to an imbalance in resource allocation, favoring industrial sectors over services, resulting in reduced employment opportunities in the latter [2][3]. - The current policy shift aims to counteract the negative effects of price competition in industries, which has led to declining profit margins and increased unemployment [1][3]. 2. **Banking Sector Performance** - Recent mid-term financial reports from banks, particularly Hangzhou Bank, show a profit growth of nearly 17%, exceeding market expectations, indicating strong performance in the city commercial banking sector [4][17]. - The overall banking sector is expected to see improved performance due to the positive trends in revenue and profit growth, with non-performing asset (NPA) ratios remaining low [2][19]. 3. **Effects of Anti-Internal Competition Measures** - Anti-internal competition measures are being implemented across various industries, including banking, to stabilize prices and improve profit margins [5][10]. - These measures have shown initial effectiveness, with some banks reporting an increase in NPA and stabilization of interest margins [5][17]. 4. **Industrial Sector Challenges** - The industrial sector faces issues of overcapacity and fierce competition, particularly among small enterprises producing low-quality goods at low prices, which pressures larger firms [6][8]. - The government is implementing measures such as supply control, price regulation, and higher environmental standards to address these challenges [7][9]. 5. **Price Recovery and Market Dynamics** - The measures taken are expected to uplift industrial product prices, which may also affect non-industrial goods, aiming for a restoration of normal price levels rather than excessive inflation [10][11]. - Different industries are responding variably to these policies, with significant price increases observed in commodities like polysilicon and lithium [11][12]. 6. **Macroeconomic Implications** - The policies are anticipated to reflect positively in macroeconomic indicators such as PPI and CPI, with a projected GDP growth rate of around 5% [13]. - Improved corporate profitability is expected to lead to a bull market in stocks, benefiting various sectors including services [13][25]. 7. **Investment Outlook** - The current market shows a preference for stocks and commodities, with a cautious approach towards bonds due to limited room for interest rate declines [14][15]. - The banking sector is viewed as having potential for valuation recovery, especially for banks with strong fundamentals [19][20]. 8. **Insurance Capital Strategies** - Insurance capital is favoring high-dividend, low-valuation stocks, indicating a selective investment approach based on specific circumstances rather than a broad sell-off [21][22]. 9. **Dividend Performance in Banking** - The dividend yield for large banks has dropped below 4%, while city commercial banks maintain higher yields, making them attractive to investors [23][24]. Other Important Insights - The banking sector's future performance is expected to improve as the market has not fully recognized the potential of quality financial institutions [25]. - The ongoing adjustments in government policy reflect a strategic response to previous economic challenges, aiming to foster a more balanced and sustainable growth environment across sectors [1][3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the spot market price of pigs continued to decline, with the national average price of standard pigs dropping by nearly 1 yuan/kg in the past two weeks. The market sentiment has weakened overall. Although there was a slight price increase over the weekend due to some reluctance to sell among pig farmers, the demand was insufficient [5]. - The price of piglets remained stable this week. Since the end of June, the price of piglets has been rising because current piglet purchases can still ensure pigs are ready for sale before the Spring Festival, which has increased the enthusiasm for piglet purchases [5]. - The sample slaughter volume decreased this week, and the downstream demand was weak. The losses of slaughterhouses widened, and the negative feedback from the demand side on live pig prices increased. The consumption in July - August is expected to remain sluggish, and the key factor affecting prices is still supply [6]. - The feed cost increased slightly this week, while the profit of pig farmers decreased significantly. The profit of the pig - purchasing and fattening model has turned negative, and the losses of slaughterhouses continue [6]. - Overall, the supply in July is not expected to increase significantly. The supply in the second half of July may decrease compared to the middle of the month, which is conducive to price stabilization. However, the demand is in a seasonal off - peak, and the negative feedback on price increases persists. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Overview and Market View 3.1.1 Price - The national average price of standard pigs this week was 14.19 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.51 yuan/kg from last week, and the price in Sichuan (the optimal delivery area) was 13.63 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.75 yuan/kg. The average price in Henan was 14.3 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.4 yuan/kg. The price of pork carcasses was 18.69 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.46 yuan/kg [5]. - The price of piglets was 444.76 yuan/head, a decrease of 0.48 yuan/head, remaining relatively stable. The price of sows was 1638.1 yuan/head, a decrease of 2.38 yuan/head [5]. 3.1.2 Production Capacity - According to national statistics, the inventory of breeding sows in June was 4.043 million heads, an increase of 10,000 heads from the previous month and a decrease of 370,000 heads from the peak in November last year. The inventory of breeding sows in the Steel Union sample increased by 15,100 heads to 5.2725 million heads [5]. - The average number of healthy piglets per litter was 11.41, unchanged from the previous month, and the fattening survival rate was 93.21%, also unchanged [5]. 3.1.3 Supply - The planned slaughter volume of commercial pigs this month was 13.005 million heads, an increase of 164,300 heads from last month. The average slaughter weight was 123.49 kg, a slight decrease of 0.01 kg [5]. - The price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.27 yuan/kg, a significant change from - 0.12 yuan/kg last week, indicating that the price of fat pigs was relatively strong [5]. 3.1.4 Demand - The daily slaughter volume was 107,803 heads, a decrease of 1,151 heads from last week. The slaughter rate of key slaughtering enterprises was 26.05%, a decrease of 0.28 percentage points. The fresh - meat sales rate was 87.87%, an increase of 0.08 percentage points [6]. - The wholesale volume of pork in Xinfadi Market increased by 3.51%, and the arrival volume of pork carcasses in Nanhuanqiao Market and Shanghai Xijiao Market increased by 26.11% and 7.73% respectively [6]. 3.1.5 Cost and Profit - The feed cost was 2.72 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.01 yuan/kg. The profit of self - breeding and self - fattening was 114.86 yuan/head, a decrease of 45.44 yuan/head. The profit of the pig - purchasing and fattening model was - 71.84 yuan/head, a significant decrease from 0.17 yuan/head last week [6]. - The profit of slaughtering was - 23 yuan/head, a slight improvement from - 23.9 yuan/head last week [6]. 3.1.6 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract (LH2509) was 14,135 yuan/ton, a decrease of 210 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 55 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 800 yuan/ton from last week [6]. - The price difference between contracts (7 - 9) was - 455 yuan/ton, a decrease of 810 yuan/ton, and the price difference between contracts (9 - 11) was 500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 Market Price Trend - The report presents the historical price trends of standard pigs, pork carcasses, piglets, and sows from 2022 - 2025, helping to understand the long - term price changes in the pig market [10]. 3.3 Pig Market Balance Sheet - From 2024 - 2025, the supply and demand of the pig market fluctuated. The supply - demand gap was relatively stable from March - May and widened significantly from June - August [12][15]. 3.4 Production Capacity and Supply Data 3.4.1 Basic Production Capacity - Sow Inventory - The report shows the inventory trends of official breeding sows and different samples of breeding sows (scale enterprises, scale + small and medium - sized enterprises, small and medium - sized farmers) from February - December [17][19][21]. 3.4.2 Basic Production Capacity - Litter Efficiency - It includes the number of piglets born in sample enterprises, the average number of healthy piglets per litter, the survival rate of piglets, and the fattening survival rate from March - December [26][27][28]. 3.4.3 Pig Inventory - Slaughter Plan and Slaughter Characteristics - The report presents the trends of the average slaughter weight, the price difference between standard and fat pigs, the north - south price difference, the monthly planned slaughter volume of scale enterprises, and the monthly slaughter volume of major pig - raising enterprises [36][37][38]. 3.5 Slaughter Volume and Market Demand 3.5.1 Slaughter Situation - It shows the trends of the fresh - meat sales rate, daily slaughter volume, storage capacity rate, and daily operating rate of slaughtering enterprises from 2021 - 2025 [41][42]. 3.5.2 Market Demand - The report presents the trends of the wholesale volume of pork carcasses in Xinfadi Market, the arrival volume of pork carcasses in Nanhuanqiao Market and Shanghai Xijiao Market, and the price difference between live pigs and pork carcasses from 2022 - 2025 [43][45][49]. 3.5.3 Competitor Price Situation - It shows the price trends of beef, mutton, chicken, and fish from 2021 - 2025 [52][53]. 3.6 Pig - Raising Cost and Industry Profit - The report presents the trends of the price of pig - raising feed, the profit of the pig - purchasing and fattening model, the profit of self - breeding and self - fattening, the pig - grain ratio, and the expected and current costs of different pig - raising models from 2021 - 2025 [56][57][58]. 3.7 Futures Market Situation 3.7.1 Futures Market Trend - Each Futures Contract Trend - It shows the price trends of different futures contracts (01, 03, 05, 07, 09, 11) from 2022 - 2026 [72][73][74]. 3.7.2 Futures Market Trend - Each Contract Basis Trend - It presents the basis trends of different futures contracts (01, 03, 05, 07, 09, 11) from 2023 - 2026 [83][84][85]. 3.7.3 Futures Market Trend - Each Contract Price Difference Trend - It shows the price difference trends between different futures contracts (01 - 03, 03 - 05, 05 - 07, 07 - 09, 09 - 11, 11 - 01) from 2022 - 2025 [93][94][95].

Group 1 - Beef prices in the U.S. have surged significantly, with ground beef prices increasing by 12% year-over-year and premium steak prices rising by 8%, marking historical highs [1][3] - The U.S. cattle herd is at its lowest level in 72 years, with only 86.7 million head of cattle reported, leading to increased reliance on beef imports, which exceed 4 million pounds annually [3] - Tariffs imposed on Brazilian beef, a crucial component of the American diet, threaten to disrupt supply chains, as U.S. meat processors blend imported lean beef with domestic fatty beef for products like hamburgers [3][4] Group 2 - The agricultural sector in the U.S. is facing challenges, with 90% of tomatoes and significant portions of fresh fruits and vegetables being imported, highlighting vulnerabilities in domestic production [3] - The impact of tariffs extends beyond beef, affecting various food items such as coffee and orange juice, which are heavily sourced from Brazil, indicating a broader "food inflation" crisis [4] - The current trade policies are pushing key suppliers like Brazil to seek new markets, potentially destabilizing the U.S. food supply chain and increasing costs for consumers [3][4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the investment logic for live pigs is marginally improving, supported by both fundamental and policy factors, with expectations of rising prices in the second half of 2025 [25] - The domestic pet consumption market remains stable, but trade tensions have put pressure on exports, with a notable decline in sales and export figures [20][29] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - Short-term supply increases have led to a decline in pig prices, but after market adjustments, prices may rise further [4][13] - As of July 18, the average price of live pigs was 14.19 yuan/kg, down 3.34% from the previous week [13][14] Weekly Market Performance - The agriculture index underperformed the market by 0.83 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.69% [30][32] - The animal health sector showed the highest gains among sub-sectors [30] Price Tracking - The average price of live pigs decreased to 14.27 yuan/kg, while the price of piglets increased slightly to 31.96 yuan/kg [41] - The price of corn decreased to 2473 yuan/ton, while soybean meal prices rose to 2928 yuan/ton [15][56] Key News - As of the end of Q2 2025, the number of breeding sows was reported at 40.43 million, with overall meat production showing a slight increase [38] - The report indicates a stable trend in domestic pet food sales, with a total of 31.87 billion yuan in sales for June, down 7.98% year-on-year [20][23] Recommendations - Recommended stocks in the pig farming sector include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others, while in the feed sector, Hai Da Group and New Hope Liuhe are highlighted [25][29]

Summary of Beef Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the beef industry in China, particularly the trends in beef imports and domestic supply and demand dynamics [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Beef Import Trends**: In the first half of 2025, China's beef imports decreased by 145,000 tons to 1.09 million tons, while the average import price rose to $5,000-$5,300 per ton, an increase of approximately $300 compared to the same period last year [1][3]. 2. **Domestic Price Dynamics**: Domestic beef prices are influenced by the supply-demand balance, with domestic beef averaging around 60 RMB/kg, significantly higher than imported beef priced at 40-50 RMB/kg [1][9]. 3. **Impact of U.S. Tariffs**: If the U.S. imposes a 50% tariff on Brazilian beef, it could lead to an influx of Brazilian beef into the Chinese market, potentially increasing import volumes but decreasing prices [1][7]. 4. **Market Supply and Demand**: The domestic beef market is primarily composed of chilled and grain-fed products, with a production gap of 2-3 million tons that relies on imports [1][9]. 5. **Future Price Expectations**: The domestic beef price is expected to continue rising due to reduced supply from both South America and domestic sources, with predictions of price increases lasting until 2026 [1][15][16]. 6. **Consumer Behavior**: The demand for beef is currently weak, influenced by poor performance in the fast-moving consumer goods and restaurant sectors, which directly affects beef consumption [1][12]. 7. **Global Price Trends**: Since 2022, global beef prices have been recovering, currently averaging around $5,000-$5,500 per ton, driven by reduced cattle stocks in Brazil and drought conditions [1][13][14]. 8. **Domestic Industry Challenges**: The domestic beef industry has faced significant losses, particularly among independent farmers, due to high costs and low market prices, leading to a reduction in cattle farming [1][11][15]. Additional Important Insights - **Regulatory Changes**: The potential implementation of new import quota policies in August 2025 could impact market prices and import volumes, although the actual effects remain uncertain [1][8]. - **Market Segmentation**: There is a clear distinction between domestic and imported beef markets, with domestic beef primarily serving supermarkets and imported beef being used mainly in restaurants and food processing [1][9][19]. - **Price Volatility**: Despite rising prices, the overall transaction volume in the domestic market is declining, indicating a potential shift in consumer preferences towards other protein sources like chicken and pork [1][18][19]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the beef industry, highlighting the interplay between domestic production, import dynamics, and market pricing trends.

（美国牛肉价格走势图） 最新数据显示，6月份，美国的牛肉价格创下历史新高。 其中，碎牛肉平均价格为每磅6.12美元，比去年上涨近12%；未加工牛肉牛排的平均价格为每磅11.49美元，较 去年上涨8%。这并不是最近才出现的现象，过去20年来，美国牛肉价格一直在稳步上涨。 有分析指出，美国牛肉行业面临着一系列挑战，其中最根本的原因是牛群数量的减少。此外，美国的贸易政 策，特别是美国总统特朗普任内实施的关税政策，也对牛肉价格产生长期影响。 如果特朗普政府的这些关税长期存在，将迫使美国肉类加工商支付更高的进口成本，这势必会推高最终消费者 支付的价格。美国纽约联邦储备银行行长约翰·威廉姆斯近日表示，美国的关税政策，或将美国通胀率推高1个 百分点。 美国牛肉价格创新高 牛肉价格的持续上涨，已经成为美国消费者面临的重要挑战。据美联社7月18日报道，根据6月的数据，牛肉价 格已经达到了历史新高。6月份，美国碎牛肉平均价格比去年上涨近12%，未加工牛肉牛排的平均价格上升 8%。 报道指出，牛肉的涨价不仅发生在今年。实际上，由于供给紧张与需求强劲，过去20年来，美国牛肉价格一直 在攀升。因为牛的供应仍然紧张，而牛肉一直很受欢迎。 ...