四川在线记者 裴玉松 文/图 年味渐浓，又到了一年灌香肠的时节。"市民灌香肠，用四川黑猪肉是一个不错的选择。"四川省畜牧科学研究院养猪科学研究所助理研究员王言表示。她 说，四川黑猪肉具有肉质紧实、肌间脂肪均匀等特点，与川味香肠的制作比较匹配。 在四川，黑猪肉香肠、黑猪腊排骨等是招待贵客的稀罕物，一个重要原因是口感好。王言说，决定猪肉口感老嫩的最关键因素——肌纤维直径数据越小，肉 嫩、好嚼、口感好，反之则肉柴、硬、塞牙。目前，四川黑猪肉的肌纤维直径一般在50—80微米之间，肉质细嫩、脂肪分布好，吃起来口感好、汁水多。 "用黑猪肉灌香肠，猪肉部位的选择也很重要。"成都大学食品与生物工程学院副教授陈林说。一般而言，消费者灌香肠主要选用猪的前腿肉和后腿肉。这两 部分猪肉的肥瘦比较适中，筋膜更容易处理。"部分消费者会增加一定比例的五花肉，调整肥瘦比例，改善香肠口感。"陈林说。 除此之外，其他部位吃法也颇有讲究。四川人餐桌上的"常客"回锅肉，则主要选取肥瘦分明、肥肉紧实的臀尖肉（位于猪后腿近臀处），其次则是五花肉、 后腿肉等。陈林介绍，如果喜欢煎烤或涮火锅，可以选择猪肩胛处的梅花肉，水煮肉片则可选用猪的里脊肉。 3、成华 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The recent peak in demand in the live - hog market has passed, and the supply - side contradictions remain to be resolved. However, the low - price shock of hog prices in the short term has increased the enthusiasm of second - round fattening. The price of the live - hog futures LH2603 contract is expected to mainly operate in a wide - range shock at a low level [14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: On December 26, 2025, the live - hog lh2603 contract showed a fluctuating trend, closing at 11,645 points, up 1.48% from the previous settlement price, with a full - day trading volume of 117,200 lots and an open interest of 171,500 lots [2]. - **Variety Price**: The prices of live - hog futures contracts varied. The total open interest of the variety was 355,353 lots, an increase of 8,016 lots from the previous trading day [4]. - **Related Market**: The daily trading volume of live - hog options was 35,251 lots, with a total open interest of 63,671 lots, an increase of 3,212 lots in open interest, and 0 lots were exercised on the day [6]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Basis Data**: The live - hog basis was 205 yuan/ton yesterday and 145 yuan/ton today, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, indicating a slight convergence of the basis [7]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: According to the warehouse receipt report of the Dalian Commodity Exchange, there were 863 registered warehouse receipts today, with no change from the previous trading day [8]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry News**: Wenhua Finance reported that the spot price was 11.58 yuan/kg yesterday, a month - on - month increase of 0.09%. On the supply side, the slaughter rhythm across the country was moderately slow in late December. The previous epidemic situation led to an increase in the slaughter of small and medium - sized pigs, driving a slight decline in the average weight this week. Overall, the contradiction of supply accumulation has not been resolved [10]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily K - line of the live - hog lh2603 futures closed in a positive line, showing a short - term increase during the day. The K - line broke through the upper track of the BOLL line, and the BOLL line was in an open state [11][12].

新华社北京12月31日电 题：我国对进口牛肉实施保障措施，释放哪些信号？ 新华社记者谢希瑶、戴锦镕 "卖牛的钱刚够喂牛，只能不断缩减存栏，企业高峰时有七千多头母牛，现在只有几百头。"赤峰某 畜牧企业负责人说。 牛肉价格不"牛"了，进口激增正是原因之一。 近些年，随着人们对富含优质蛋白的牛肉需求增多，拉动国内养殖和国外进口双向增长，进口牛肉 凭借成本优势增长迅猛。 据商务部调查，近年来，我国牛肉进口急剧增长，2024年较2019年增长了73.2%，且进口价格显著 低于国内市场价格。2019年至2024年上半年，进口牛肉市场份额从20%上升至30%左右。 商务部2025年12月31日发布公告，裁定进口牛肉数量增加，中国国内产业受到严重损害，且二者存 在因果关系，决定对进口牛肉实施保障措施，实施期限为3年，自2026年1月1日至2028年12月31日。 应国内产业申请，商务部于2024年12月27日立案，对进口牛肉启动保障措施调查，历时1年、2次延 期，是我国迄今为止案值最大的进口调查案件，相关裁决和措施终于落地，释放出哪些信号？ 信号一：启动贸易"安全阀" 为产业纾困 "每斤30多元，比最低的时候高些，但比以前每 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce has decided to implement safeguard measures on imported beef for three years, from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2028, due to significant damage to the domestic industry caused by increased imports and declining prices [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Domestic Industry - The average retail price of beef in 36 major cities dropped to 36.82 yuan per pound by March 19, 2025, marking a six-year low, which has severely pressured the domestic beef industry [1]. - The surge in imported beef, which increased by 73.2% from 2019 to 2024, has led to a significant market share shift, with imports rising from 20% to approximately 30% during the same period [2]. - The domestic beef industry is facing substantial losses, with many farmers reducing their cattle herds due to unprofitable prices, leading to a potential long-term supply shortage [2][6]. Group 2: Safeguard Measures Implementation - The safeguard measures are designed to provide a temporary relief to the domestic industry without restricting normal beef trade, reflecting a balanced approach to protect local interests while maintaining openness to international trade [4][5]. - The measures include country-specific quotas and additional tariffs on imports exceeding these quotas, rather than imposing blanket tariffs, to minimize disruption to normal trade [5]. - This is the third instance of China implementing safeguard measures since joining the WTO, indicating a cautious approach to trade protectionism [5]. Group 3: Future Industry Outlook - The implementation of safeguard measures is expected to create a buffer period for the domestic beef industry, allowing for necessary adjustments and improvements in production efficiency [3][6]. - The industry anticipates that with the support of these measures, beef consumption demand will rise, potentially leading to a reasonable recovery in beef prices by 2026 [7]. - The Ministry of Agriculture supports these measures as a means to control import levels and address the immediate challenges faced by the domestic industry, while also promoting sustainable development in the beef sector [6].

证券时报·数据宝统计显示，牧原股份今日收盘价为50.58元，下跌0.61%，日换手率为0.70%，成交额为 13.42亿元，全天主力资金净流入4739.33万元，近5日该股累计上涨5.11%，近5日资金合计净流入3.99亿 元。 两融数据显示，该股最新融资余额为49.59亿元，近5日增加8923.30万元，增幅为1.83%。（数据宝） 12月31日牧原股份大宗交易一览 | 成交量 | 成交金 | 成交价 | 相对当日收 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | （万 | 额（万 | 格 | 盘折溢价 | 买方营业部 | 卖方营业部 | | 股） | 元） | （元） | （%） | | | | 25.80 | 1312.96 | 50.89 | 0.61 | 中信证券股份有限公司杭州 玉皇山南基金小镇证券营业 | 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 杭州新业路第一证券营业部 | | | | | | 部 | | （文章来源：证券时报网） 牧原股份12月31日大宗交易平台出现一笔成交，成交量25.80万股，成交金额1312.96万元，大宗交易成 交价为50.89元，相对今日 ...

进一步统计，近3个月内该股累计发生5笔大宗交易，合计成交金额为2.87亿元。该股近5个交易日累计 上涨5.11%，主力资金合计净流入2亿元。 责任编辑：小浪快报 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 12月31日，牧原股份收跌0.61%，收盘价为50.58元，发生1笔大宗交易，合计成交量25.8万股，成交金 额1312.96万元。 第1笔成交价格为50.89元，成交25.80万股，成交金额1,312.96万元，溢价率为0.61%，买方营业部为中 信证券股份有限公司杭州玉皇山南基金小镇证券营业部，卖方营业部为国泰海通证券股份有限公司杭州 新业路第一证券营业部。 ...

| 交易日期 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 成交价格 (元) | 成交量 (万股/万份) | 成交金额 买方营业部 (万元) | 卖方营业部 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-12-31 | 002714 | 牧原股份 | 50.89 | 25.80 | 1,312.96中信证券股份有限 | 国泰海通证券股份 | | | | | | | 公司杭州玉量山南 | 有限公司杭州新业 | | | | | | | 基金小镇证券昌亚 | 路第一证券营业部 | | | | | | | 新 | | 12月31日，牧原股份大宗交易成交25.8万股，成交额1312.96万元，占当日总成交额的0.97%，成交价 50.89元，较市场收盘价50.58元溢价0.61%。 ...

12月31日，商务部发布公告，裁定进口牛肉数量增加对中国国内产业造成严重损害，将对进口牛肉实施 保障措施。 受此冲击，中国肉牛养殖业自2023年以来陷入全行业亏损。大量能繁母牛被屠宰，2024年能繁母牛存栏 量下降约3%，严重动摇产业根基。上游饲草产业与下游屠宰加工企业均出现大范围亏损，产业链的健 康发展遭遇挑战。 中国畜牧业协会副秘书长刘强德接受第一财经记者采访时表示，保障措施预计将对全行业行情产生积极 提振，有效激发从业者重返或扩大生产的信心。尽管产业实质性复苏仍需时日，但此举将为信心重建与 产能恢复奠定基础。 根据公告，保障措施将以"国别配额及配额外加征关税"的形式实施。商务部贸易救济调查局负责人对此 介绍，对进口牛肉的保障措施将于2026年1月1日起实施。自保障措施实施之日起，如进口数量未达到年 度配额数量，进口牛肉将适用现行关税税率。当进口数量达到了年度配额数量的第3日起，将在现行适 用关税税率的基础上加征关税。上一年度内未使用完的配额数量不结转至下一年度。 近年来，我国牛肉进口量呈现急剧增长态势。商务部数据显示，2019年至2024年，牛肉进口量从166万 吨攀升至287万吨，增幅高达73.2%。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term supply of live pigs is tightening, which supports the price to fluctuate slightly stronger, but the supportive effects of secondary fattening and demand are weakening, and the risk of price decline is increasing [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights - **Market Performance**: The live pig price rose and then adjusted. The main contract 2603 increased by 1.29% on a weekly basis [7][10]. - **Market Outlook**: At the beginning of the month, there may be supply reduction operations, and the supply of fat pigs is tight, reducing short - term supply pressure. However, the entry of secondary fattening is becoming more cautious. The current demand is in the peak season, but after the New Year's Day stocking ends, the demand drops from the small peak, and the terminal consumption's acceptance of price increases is limited, so the increase in slaughter volume is limited [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - **Price Movement**: The futures rebounded this week, with the main contract 2603 rising 1.29% weekly [10]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of December 31, the net short position of the top 20 holders in live pig futures decreased by 119 hands to 51,598 hands, and the number of futures warehouse receipts was 1,013, an increase of 150 from the previous week [16]. - **Contract Spreads**: The spread between lh2603 and lh2605 contracts was - 370, and the spread between lh2603 and lh2607 contracts was - 1,010 [22]. - **Spot Market** - **Live Pig and Piglet Prices**: The average national live pig market price this week was 12.28 yuan/kg, up 0.65 yuan/kg from last week. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 23.72 yuan/kg, up 0.34 yuan/kg from last week [36]. - **Pork and Sow Prices**: In the week of December 25, the national pork market price was 22.48 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows last week was 32.46 yuan/kg, remaining flat from the previous week [40]. - **Pig - to - Grain Ratio**: As of the week of December 24, 2025, the pig - to - grain ratio was 5.24, up 0.01 from the previous week [44]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream** - **Sow Inventory**: In October 2025, the official inventory of breeding sows was 39.9 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 1.12% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.038%. According to Mysteel data, in November, the inventory of breeding sows in large - scale farms decreased by 0.37% month - on - month and increased by 0.07% year - on - year, while that in small and medium - sized farms decreased by 0.78% month - on - month and increased by 0.78% year - on - year [49]. - **Live Pig Inventory**: At the end of the third quarter of 2025, the national live pig inventory was 436.8 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 2.9% and a year - on - year increase of 2.3%. According to Mysteel data, in November, the inventory of commercial pigs in large - scale farms increased by 0.32% month - on - month and 5.28% year - on - year, while that in small and medium - sized farms decreased by 0.07% month - on - month and increased by 6.94% year - on - year [53]. - **Slaughter Volume and Average Weight**: In November, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in large - scale farms was 11.3649 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 0.65% and a year - on - year increase of 5.59%. The slaughter volume of small and medium - sized farms was 0.5151 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 2.03% and a year - on - year increase of 29.75%. The average slaughter weight of national outer - ternary live pigs this week was 123.55 kg, a decrease of 0.12 kg from last week [58]. - **Industry Profit** - **Live Pig and Poultry Farming Profits**: As of December 26, the loss of purchasing piglets for farming was 162.8 yuan/head, narrowing by 26.7 yuan/head; the loss of self - breeding and self - raising was 130.11 yuan/head, narrowing by 0.76 yuan/head. The profit of laying hens was - 0.47 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11 yuan/head, and the profit of 817 meat - hybrid chickens was 0.01 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 0.03 yuan/head [63]. - **Domestic Import** - **Pork Imports**: In November, China's pork imports were 60,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.33%. From January to November, the total pork imports were 920,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.12% [68]. - **Substitutes** - **Prices**: As of the week of December 26, the price of white - striped chickens remained flat at 14.1 yuan/kg compared with last week. As of the week of December 25, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.61 yuan/kg, widening by 0.13 yuan/kg from last week [73]. - **Feed** - **Raw Material Prices**: As of December 31, the spot price of soybean meal was 3,172.29 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.57 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the corn price was 2,351.57 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.94 yuan/ton from the previous week [78]. - **Feed Index and Price**: As of December 31, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index was 892.17, and the price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.33 yuan/kg, remaining flat from last week [81]. - **Feed Output**: In November 2025, the monthly feed output was 29.77 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 209,000 tons. The sales of piglet feed increased by 0.42% month - on - month and 53.28% year - on - year [85]. - **CPI**: As of November 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year [89]. - **Downstream** - **Slaughter and Cold Storage**: In the 52nd week, the slaughter enterprise's operating rate was 40.24%, an increase of 0.37 percentage points from last week and 1.16 percentage points from the same period last year. The fresh - sales rate of key domestic slaughter enterprises was 87.42%, a decrease of 0.44% from last week, and the cold - storage capacity utilization rate was 18.20%, an increase of 0.01% from last week [92]. - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of November 2025, the slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises was 39.57 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 3.21% and a 24.04% increase compared with the previous period. In November 2025, the national catering revenue was 605.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [97]. - **Live Pig - Related Stocks**: The report mentions the trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis is provided [98].

Core Viewpoint - The company has entered a phase of steady development, focusing on reducing overall debt levels while maintaining stable operations [2] Group 1: Financial Strategy - Capital expenditures are expected to gradually decrease as the company aims for a more sustainable growth model [2] - The company plans to issue bonds opportunistically based on market conditions, with interest rates on bonds issued this year showing a downward trend [2] - Efforts will be made to optimize the debt structure and lower financing costs, ensuring financial metrics remain at safer and healthier levels [2] Group 2: Operational Quality - The company is committed to enhancing overall operational quality as part of its financial strategy [2]