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《特殊商品》日报-20250613
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-13 03:10
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the documents. 2. Core Views of the Reports Natural Rubber - Under the expectation of increasing supply and weakening demand, the subsequent rubber price is expected to remain weak. Adopt a strategy of shorting on rebounds above 14,000. Pay attention to the raw material supply in each producing area and macro - event disturbances [2]. Industrial Silicon - Although the demand for industrial silicon is expected to improve in June, the supply increase is larger, and the inventory is expected to accumulate, putting pressure on the price. However, due to the low absolute price and the enhancement of disk procurement, there may be price rebounds, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. If the polysilicon production increases, it is beneficial for the arbitrage of buying industrial silicon and shorting polysilicon [5]. Polysilicon - In June, there is no obvious improvement in the fundamentals. There is a high probability of a decline in demand, and the supply does not decrease accordingly, so there is a risk of inventory accumulation. Hold short positions cautiously and pay attention to the spread structure and polysilicon production. If the polysilicon production increases, it is beneficial for the arbitrage of buying industrial silicon and shorting polysilicon [6]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Soda Ash**: The supply is gradually recovering, the demand has no obvious growth, and the inventory is under pressure after the maintenance. Continue to hold previous short positions and track the implementation of maintenance [7]. - **Glass**: It still faces over - supply pressure, and the price may continue to be under pressure. Adopt a short - term bearish strategy and wait for more cold - repair implementation to bring a real reversal [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - Yunnan Guofu all - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai rose from 13,750 to 13,850, an increase of 0.73%. The all - latex basis (switched to the 2509 contract) increased by 289.29% [2]. Monthly Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 2.38%, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 25.00%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 3.41% [2]. Fundamental Data - In April, Thailand's production decreased by 29.16%, Indonesia's by 7.26%, and India's by 14.34%, while China's increased by 42.30 thousand tons. The weekly开工率 of semi - steel tires increased by 4.12 percentage points, and that of all - steel tires decreased by 2.23 percentage points. Domestic tire production in April decreased by 5.07%, tire exports by 7.87%, and natural rubber imports by 11.93%. In May, the import of natural and synthetic rubber decreased by 12.03% [2]. Inventory Changes - The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.80%, and the natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory on the SHFE increased by 23.99% [2]. Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Basis - The prices of East China oxygen - permeable SI5530, SI4210, and Xinjiang 99 silicon remained unchanged. The basis of relevant varieties decreased, with the largest decline of 29.90% [5]. Monthly Spreads - The spreads of 2506 - 2507, 2507 - 2508, 2509 - 2510, and 2510 - 2511 increased, with the largest increase of 266.67% [5]. Fundamental Data - In April, the national industrial silicon production decreased by 12.10%, Xinjiang's by 20.55%, Yunnan's increased by 9.35%, and Sichuan's increased by 145.65%. The national开工率 decreased by 11.37%, Xinjiang's by 22.18%, Yunnan's by 9.21%, and Sichuan's increased by 1389.80%. In May, the production of silicone DMC increased by 6.48%, polysilicon by 0.73%, and recycled aluminum alloy decreased by 0.66%. The industrial silicon export in April increased by 1.64% [5]. Inventory Changes - Xinjiang's factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 2.15%, Yunnan's increased by 2.79%, Sichuan's increased by 0.44%, the social inventory decreased by 2.56%, the warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.51%, and the non - warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 4.59% [5]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - The average prices of N - type re - feedstock, N - type granular silicon decreased by 1.37% and 1.47% respectively, while the average price of P - type cauliflower material remained unchanged. The basis of relevant materials increased, with the largest increase of 8.65% [6]. Futures Prices and Monthly Spreads - The PS2506 contract decreased by 1.96%. The spreads of PS2506 - PS2507 increased by 22.00%, while others decreased, with the largest decline of 40.85% [6]. Fundamental Data - Weekly silicon wafer production increased by 0.46%, and polysilicon production increased by 8.18%. In May, polysilicon production increased by 0.73%. In April, polysilicon imports decreased by 7.10%, exports decreased by 10.40%, silicon wafer imports decreased by 32.03%, exports increased by 28.29%, and the net export of silicon wafers increased by 42.57%. In May, the silicon wafer demand decreased by 8.10% [6]. Inventory Changes - Polysilicon inventory increased by 2.23%, and silicon wafer inventory decreased by 3.40%. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged [6]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Related Prices and Spreads - The spot prices in North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged. The glass 2505 contract decreased by 1.37%, and the 2509 contract decreased by 1.70%. The 05 basis increased by 27.78% [7]. Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads - The spot prices in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The soda ash 2505 contract decreased by 1.06%, and the 2509 contract decreased by 2.20%. The 05 basis increased by 7.43% [7]. Supply - The soda ash operating rate increased by 8.06%, the weekly soda ash production increased by 8.04%, the float glass daily melting volume decreased by 0.70%, the photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased by 1.00%, and the 3.2mm coating mainstream price decreased by 4.76% [7]. Inventory - The glass factory - warehouse inventory increased by 2.84%, the soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 3.82%, the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory decreased by 5.87%, and the glass factory's soda ash inventory days increased by 15.91% [7]. Real Estate Data Year - on - Year - The new construction area increased by 2.99%, the construction area decreased by 7.56%, the completion area increased by 15.67%, and the sales area increased by 12.13% [7].
玻璃纯碱早报-20250613
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-13 02:43
| 玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | 2025/6/13 | | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/6/12 周度变化 日度变化 | 2025/6/5 | 2025/6/11 | | | | | 2025/6/5 | 2025/6/11 | | 2025/6/12 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 沙河安全 5mm大 板 | 1121.0 | 1113.0 | 1113.0 | -8.0 | 0.0 | FG09合约 | 963.0 | 998.0 | 981.0 | 18.0 | -17.0 | | 沙河长城 5mm大板 | 1096.0 | 1100.0 | 1096.0 | 0.0 | -4.0 | FG01合约 | 1018.0 | 1056.0 | 1040.0 | 22.0 | -16.0 | | 沙河5mm大 板低价 | 1 ...
菲利华(300395) - 300395菲利华投资者关系管理信息20250612
2025-06-12 09:44
Legal Matters - The company is involved in a legal case regarding technology infringement, with a first-instance judgment ordering compensation of RMB 202.42 million (20,241.97 million) from the defendants [1][5]. - The case is currently under appeal at the Supreme People's Court, with the company and defendants having filed appeals [5]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue from the photovoltaic sector has decreased due to a supply-demand mismatch and intensified competition, with a year-on-year decline reported for 2024 [3]. - The aerospace sector is expected to benefit from national policies, with the company anticipating growth in this area [6]. Project Developments - The high-purity synthetic quartz sand project has entered the pilot test phase, enhancing the company's supply chain security [2][7]. - The company has achieved stable production capabilities for various synthetic quartz products, including low-expansion and chlorine-free quartz materials [7][8]. Shareholder Engagement - The company has repurchased 1,688,050 shares for a total of RMB 50.09 million (5,008.87 million) and has seen additional purchases from major stakeholders amounting to RMB 30.07 million (3,006.74 million) [9][10]. - The company aims to enhance core competitiveness and sustainable growth as part of its 2025 operational goals [10]. Market Position - The company is recognized as a leading manufacturer of synthetic quartz glass in China, with significant applications in high-end optical fields and aerospace [8]. - It has established itself as a dominant supplier in the aerospace sector, with a focus on maintaining technological leadership and improving production efficiency [6][8].
玻璃纯碱早报-20250612
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 03:31
现货:重碱河北交割库现货报价在1210左右,沙河库1230左右 产业:厂库累库。远兴超产 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 河北鑫利4.8mm(折5mm) 2022 2023 2024 2025 (600) (400) (200) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 华北玻璃生产利润(气) 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1104 1113 1104 990 969 998 1015 1056 900 950 1000 1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 沙河德金 沙河安全 沙河低价 湖北低价 07合约 09合约 11合约 01合约 玻璃价格结构 今日(6/11) 昨日(6/10) 一周前(6/4) 一月前(5/12) (500) 0 500 1,000 1,500 华南玻璃利润(气) 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 玻璃:河北低价大板 2019 2 ...
广发期货《特殊商品》日报-20250612
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 03:27
然橡胶产业期现目报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年6月12日 Z0021810 寇帝斯 | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 6月11日 | 6月10日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF):上海 | 13750 | 13850 | -100 | -0.72% | | | 全乳基差(切换至2509合约) | -140 | વર્ત | -185 | -411.11% | 元/吨 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 13850 | 13750 | 100 | 0.73% | | | 非标价差 | -40 | -રેર | 15 | 27.27% | | | 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 46.65 | 46.20 | 0.45 | 0.97% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 胶水: 国际市场: FOB中间价 | 56.50 | 56.25 | 0.25 | 0.44% | | | 天然橡胶:胶块:西双版纳州 | 12200 | 12200 | 0 | 0.00% | ...
大越期货玻璃早报-20250611
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-06-11 03:00
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号:F03105325 投资咨询证号:Z0021337 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-6-11 每日观点 玻璃: 1、基本面:玻璃生产利润低位,行业冷修增加,开工率、产量下降至历史同期低位;深加工订单 不及往年同期,终端需求偏弱,厂库持续累积;偏空 2、基差:浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1060元/吨,FG2509收盘价为995元/吨,基差为65元,期货 贴水现货;偏多 3、库存:全国浮法玻璃企业库存6975.40万重量箱,较前一周增加3.09%,库存在5年均值上方运 行;偏空 4、盘面:价格在20日线下方运行,20日线向下;偏空 5、主力持仓:主力持仓净空,空增;偏空 6、预期:玻璃基本面疲弱,短期预计低位震荡运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多: 1、生产利润负反馈明显,玻璃产量持续下降至历史低位。 利空: 1、地产 ...
玻璃纯碱早报-20250611
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-11 02:02
| | | | | | 玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | 2025/6/11 | | | | | | | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | 2025/6/3 | | 2025/6/9 | | 2025/6/10 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 2025/6/3 | 2025/6/9 | | 2025/6/10 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 沙河安全 5mm大 板 | 1121.0 | 1121.0 | 1113.0 | -8.0 | -8.0 | FG09合约 | 954.0 | 1006.0 | 995.0 | 41.0 | -11.0 | | 沙河长城 5mm大板 | 1096.0 | 1109.0 | 1100.0 | 4.0 | -9.0 | FG01合约 | 1014.0 | 1066.0 | 1054.0 | 40.0 | -12.0 | | 沙河5mm大 板低价 | 1 ...
玻璃纯碱早报-20250610
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 01:51
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - No core viewpoints are explicitly stated in the provided reports. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - **Price Changes**: From June 3 to June 9, 2025, the price of 5mm glass in different regions showed various changes. For example, the price of Wuhan Changli 5mm large - plate decreased by 60.0, while the price of Shaguo Great Wall 5mm large - plate increased by 13.0 [1]. - **Contract Price Changes**: FG09 contract price increased from 954.0 on June 3 to 1006.0 on June 9, and FG01 contract price increased from 1014.0 to 1066.0 during the same period [1]. - **Profit Changes**: The profit of North China coal - fired glass increased by 22.4 from June 3 to June 9, and the profit of North China natural gas glass increased by 22.0 [1]. - **Spot and Sales**: Shaguo traders' glass price was around 1126 with average trading volume, and the transaction of Hubei's factory low - price glass was good [1]. - **Production and Sales Ratio**: The production - sales ratio in Shaguo was 97, in Hubei was 95, in East China was 93, and in South China was 100 [1]. Soda Ash - **Price Changes**: From June 3 to June 9, 2025, the price of Shaguo heavy soda ash increased by 10.0, and the price of North China light soda ash increased by 30.0 [1]. - **Contract Price Changes**: SA05 contract price increased from 1221.0 on June 3 to 1235.0 on June 9, and SA01 contract price increased from 1175.0 to 1193.0 [1]. - **Profit Changes**: The profit of North China ammonia - soda method decreased by 0.6, and the profit of North China combined - soda method decreased by 14.7 [1]. - **Spot and Industry Situation**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei delivery warehouse was around 1210, and the inventory in factory warehouses increased [1].
银河期货玻璃期货日报-20250609
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-06-09 11:17
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Glass Futures Daily Report [2] - Date: June 9, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Li Xuanyi [4] Group 2: Basic Data Spot Market - Prices of various glass products in different regions changed, with daily changes ranging from -20 to 0 yuan/ton and weekly changes from -70 to -4 yuan/ton [3] Futures Market - FG09, FG05, and FG01 contracts all increased, with daily increases of 9, 11, and 12 yuan/ton respectively, and weekly increases of 52, 49, and 52 yuan/ton [3] - The position of the main contract increased by 28,591 hands, and the trading volume decreased by 376,898 hands [3] - The number of warehouse receipts remained at 0 [3] Basis and Spread - The basis of FG09, FG05, and FG01 contracts decreased, with daily decreases of 13, 15, and 16 yuan/ton respectively, and weekly decreases of 37, 35, and 36 yuan/ton [3] - The spreads between FG01 - 05, FG05 - 09, and FG09 - 01 contracts changed slightly [3] Fundamental Data - Glass daily melting volume and start - up rate remained unchanged week - on - week, with year - on - year decreases of 8.7% and 9.6% respectively [3] - Glass inventory increased by 3.1% week - on - week and 20.2% year - on - year [3] - Profits from different fuels showed different trends, with natural gas profit down 1.6% week - on - week, coal profit down 9.1%, and petroleum coke profit down 4.0% [3] Group 3: Market Judgment Market Situation - The market prices of glass in different regions changed, with decreases in some areas [5] Important Information - The domestic float glass market price was stable with a downward trend, and the production and sales in most regions were average [6] - Yihai Dabo (Dalian) Glass Co., Ltd. with a designed capacity of 520 tons/day stopped production [7] Logical Analysis - The glass price rose while soda ash fell, and the black varieties weakened, but the main glass contract exceeded 1,000 yuan [7] - The market was trading on the cold - repair expectation of glass, but there was uncertainty, and the price might continue to decline [7] - The policy had limited impact on the post - real - estate cycle products, and the downstream demand was expected to be weak in the short term [7] Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, pay attention to short - selling opportunities during the rebound [8] - For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach [8] - For options, sell out - of - the - money call options [8] Group 4: Related Attachments - The report includes multiple charts showing glass basis, spreads, positions, trading volumes, inventory, and profits over different time periods [9][13]
水泥玻璃价格继续走弱,城市更新积极推进
Huafu Securities· 2025-06-09 09:15
Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [6][67] Core Views - The report highlights that the downward trend in cement and glass prices continues, while urban renewal initiatives are actively promoted. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development reported that 5,679 old urban residential areas were newly started for renovation from January to April, with over 50% opening rates in six regions [2][11] - Central government financial support for urban renewal is expected to exceed 20 billion yuan, with various local governments implementing measures to stimulate real estate market demand [2][11] - Short-term factors include the emphasis on stabilizing the real estate market amid growth pressures and the gradual alleviation of risks associated with major real estate companies, which is beneficial for the building materials sector [2][11] - Long-term factors suggest that the opening of the interest rate reduction channel in Europe and the US may provide more room for monetary and fiscal policies in China, with expectations for policies to stabilize real estate transactions and prices [2][11] Summary by Sections Recent High-Frequency Data - As of June 6, 2025, the average price of bulk P.O 42.5 cement in China is 372.6 yuan/ton, down 0.6% week-on-week and down 4.6% year-on-year [3][12] - The average factory price of glass (5.00mm) is 1,205.7 yuan/ton, down 2.0% week-on-week and down 27.3% year-on-year [3][20] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines for investment: 1. High-quality companies benefiting from stock renovation, such as Weixing New Materials, Beixin Building Materials, and Tubao [4] 2. Undervalued stocks with long-term alpha attributes, such as Sankeshu, Dongfang Yuhong, and Jianlang Hardware [4] 3. Leading cyclical building materials companies with bottoming fundamentals, such as Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, China Jushi, and Qibin Group [4] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.13%, and the Shenzhen Composite Index rose by 1.82%. The building materials index increased by 0.63% [3][55] - Sub-sectors showed varied performance, with fiberglass manufacturing up by 2.08% and cement manufacturing down by 0.97% [3][55]