2025年8月曼谷，潮湿闷热的午后。在当地地标性商场ICONSIAM门前，年轻人们正排着长队，等待一场不同寻常的"盛典"。这并非歌手见面会或电子产 品发布，而是一家来自中国的潮玩品牌旗舰店开业。伴随着音乐和欢呼，泡泡玛特全球最大的旗舰店揭幕，760平方米的沉浸式空间涌入了如潮的人群。 这一幕，正是当下中国潮玩品牌出海热潮的缩影。 几乎在同时，香港资本市场上也在上演另一场狂欢。2025年8月20日，泡泡玛特公布了堪称"史上最强"的半年报：上半年营收138.8亿元人民币，同比增长 204.4%；经调整净利润47.1亿元，同比增长362.8%。财报发布后，泡泡玛特股价几天内快速拉升并创下历史新高。截至8月26日港股收盘，股价报收每股 326港元，市值突破4300亿港元。 更令人瞩目的是，泡泡玛特业绩发布仅一天后，另一份重磅公告接踵而至——名创优品披露旗下潮玩品牌TOP TOY获得了由主权基金淡马锡领投的新一 轮投资，投后估值约100亿港元。淡马锡此时入场被认为既能在IPO定价时抬升TOP TOY估值，又能顺带将其在东南亚的渠道资源、政府关系乃至ESG （环境、社会和公司治理）体系打包赋能给TOP TOY。这次投资既 ...

Group 1 - The "Guzi Economy" is transforming from mere emotional consumption to deeper value co-creation, connecting young consumers' emotional needs with cultural industry economic benefits [1] - Successful IPs like "The King's Avatar 2" have not only achieved box office and critical success but also stimulated fan enthusiasm for peripheral products such as figurines and blind boxes, showcasing strong cultural identity and consumption motivation [1] - Beijing's recent action plan supports the development of the "Guzi Economy," encouraging quality animation creation and the establishment of hubs for the second dimension and new generation trendy toys, while also supporting domestic brands' overseas expansion [1] Group 2 - Innovations in the "Guzi Economy" include the rise of "pain gold" phenomena, where traditional fast-moving consumer goods are upgraded to cultural assets with both emotional and investment value [2] - The emergence of virtual idols and digital IPs is expanding the "Guzi Economy," as these virtual IPs have strong cross-media capabilities, long lifecycles, and high fan loyalty, allowing for deep integration of physical and virtual products [2] - The business model is shifting from a single "IP licensing + derivative product sales" approach to "user co-creation + scene embedding," enhancing user engagement and loyalty through participatory design and experiential activities [2] Group 3 - To address challenges, businesses need to diversify content by introducing more niche and potential second-dimensional IPs, enhancing community engagement through offline activities like themed events and IP experience exhibitions [3] - For sustainable development, the "Guzi Economy" must continuously innovate in content and operational models, balancing copyright protection with market vitality, and ensuring the collaborative development of gold jewelry, trendy toys, digital collectibles, and offline experiences [3] - The new gameplay of the "Guzi Economy" is reshaping the cultural consumption ecosystem, and addressing key issues such as copyright, content, operations, and user experience is essential to unlock its long-term potential and promote a healthy, innovative, and prosperous industry [3]

Core Insights - The new generation of information technology is rapidly reshaping the business landscape and driving consumption upgrades through the resilience and vitality of new e-commerce [1] Group 1: Cross-Border E-Commerce Development - Shenzhen has positioned cross-border e-commerce as a key driver for cultivating new quality productivity in foreign trade, attracting over half of the national cross-border e-commerce sellers and a quarter of the listed companies in this sector [1] - The city has established itself as a cross-border e-commerce hub, leading the nation in import and export volumes for several consecutive years, and has attracted 80% of the global top cross-border e-commerce platforms [1] Group 2: Policy and Regulatory Framework - Shenzhen has implemented a "1+2+6+N" policy system focusing on improving quality across various sectors, including logistics and regulatory efficiency, to convert policy advantages into developmental strengths [2] Group 3: Ecosystem and Industry Support - The city emphasizes a systematic industrial ecosystem by promoting product exports, park construction, and brand operations, supporting the development of high-quality enterprises, and hosting over 400 industry matchmaking events annually [2] - Shenzhen has established five national-level e-commerce demonstration bases and incubated over half of the national cross-border e-commerce service providers, covering various professional services [2] Group 4: Logistics and Financial Services - Shenzhen has optimized logistics, customs, and trade finance services, creating a multi-modal logistics network with 11 air freight routes and 30 sea freight lines, enhancing cost efficiency for enterprises [3] - The city has introduced innovative financial support measures, including an electronic system for export tax refund documentation and a pilot program for cross-border e-commerce accounts payable insurance [3]

Core Insights - The article highlights the journey of a young entrepreneur who learns valuable life lessons through the experience of running a small business, emphasizing the importance of practical knowledge over theoretical learning [1][2] Group 1: Business Experience - The young entrepreneur's first experience in business involved purchasing stationery items to sell, illustrating the initial challenges faced in entrepreneurship [1] - The process of selling at a local market taught the entrepreneur about customer behavior and the significance of effective communication in sales [1] - The gradual increase in sales and confidence reflects the learning curve associated with running a business, showcasing the importance of observation and adaptability [1] Group 2: Personal Growth - The successful purchase of the desired book after saving money signifies the fulfillment derived from hard work and personal effort, contrasting with simply asking parents for money [2] - The experience provided lessons in perseverance, negotiation, and patience, which are essential skills for personal and professional development [2] - The metaphor of planting a seed and reaping the rewards encapsulates the idea that effort and dedication lead to meaningful outcomes in life [2]

Core Insights - The rise of emotional economy is reshaping consumer behavior, with young generations prioritizing emotional satisfaction in their purchasing decisions [1][4][3] - A significant 64% of Chinese consumers consider emotional fulfillment as their primary need, indicating a shift from functional to emotional consumption [4][3] - The emotional economy is becoming a new economic engine, with notable growth in sectors like trendy toys, pets, and outdoor activities [3][4] Emotional Consumption Trends - Over 80% of respondents reported engaging in emotional consumption in the past year, with preferences varying by age group [12][5] - The survey revealed that 92.53% of 90s generation consumers prefer tangible products like fragrances and toys, while 00s generation favors virtual experiences and social engagement [11][10] - Emotional consumption motivations include seeking companionship and emotional resonance, with 97.34% of respondents citing these as primary reasons [11][21] Market Dynamics - The emotional economy is reflected in the explosive growth of brands and stores, with 453 brands achieving over 100 million in sales during recent shopping events [3] - The emotional marketing landscape is influenced by factors such as live streaming, celebrity endorsements, and consumers' current moods, particularly among younger demographics [21][3] - The emotional economy is characterized by a focus on personalized needs, with over 65% of respondents believing it meets individual desires [21]

Core Viewpoint - The LABUBU brand under Pop Mart has become a top player in the trendy toy market, facing significant challenges from counterfeit products that are gaining popularity among consumers due to the scarcity of genuine items [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - LABUBU toys have seen explosive demand since their launch, with the official price of 99 yuan for a toy being resold for around 300 yuan in secondary markets, indicating a markup of over 200% [2]. - Limited availability of genuine LABUBU products has led consumers to seek alternatives, with some even joining groups dedicated to purchasing these toys [2][3]. - Counterfeit LABUBU products are being marketed heavily online, with some sellers claiming their products are of similar quality to the originals [4][8]. Group 2: Counterfeit Products - Counterfeit LABUBU toys are often produced in East Guangdong and are marketed as having similar materials and craftsmanship to the originals, making them difficult to distinguish [4][8]. - Some counterfeiters have begun to use fake anti-counterfeit labels to mislead consumers, with prices for these counterfeit items reaching up to 129 yuan [5][6]. - The presence of counterfeit LABUBU products has shifted from physical markets to online platforms due to increased regulatory scrutiny [7][9]. Group 3: Legal Implications - Legal experts indicate that the production and sale of counterfeit LABUBU products violate copyright and trademark laws, with severe penalties for serious offenses [1][10]. - Platforms facilitating the sale of counterfeit goods may also face legal repercussions if they fail to act against known infringements [10][11]. - Pop Mart has been actively pursuing legal action against counterfeiters through civil and criminal litigation to protect its intellectual property [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rapid growth and challenges in the "Guzi Economy," particularly focusing on the two-dimensional peripheral industry, highlighting both the flourishing of stores and the recent wave of closures [4][7][54]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The "Guzi Economy" is gaining momentum, driven by strong IPs like "Nezha: The Devil's Child" and a solid foundation laid in previous years [4]. - A surge in the number of "Guzi" stores has been observed across the country, with major chains like Pop Mart and Card Game Center expanding into lower-tier cities [4][10]. - Despite the growth, a wave of store closures has occurred, with nearly a hundred stores shutting down in the first three months of the year, indicating an inevitable industry adjustment after rapid expansion [7][8]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The current market features around 50 active two-dimensional peripheral brands, with leading companies like Pop Mart, Card Game Center, TOPTOY, and Trendy Planet holding a strong market position due to their extensive store networks [12][13]. - The top four brands have opened over 100 stores each, with Pop Mart and Card Game Center also utilizing vending machines to increase consumer access [15][16]. - Newer brands like Guzi House and March Beast have quickly established themselves, with March Beast achieving over 220 million yuan in sales in its first month [20]. Group 3: Investment Landscape - The investment landscape for two-dimensional peripheral brands is currently sparse, with only two new brands emerging in 2024: HEYZAKKA and MUMULAND [40][45]. - Investment activity has been limited, with only two notable financing events in 2024, indicating a cautious approach from venture capitalists [46][49]. - The market shows a preference for AI toys over traditional two-dimensional products, with several AI toy companies successfully securing funding [52][53]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The two-dimensional peripheral market is characterized by both opportunities and challenges, with established companies dominating and internet giants seeking to enter the space [54]. - A market adjustment is anticipated, which may lead to a new wave of growth for two-dimensional peripheral brands once weaker players are filtered out [54].

Core Viewpoint - The overall consumption in China shows steady growth, with specific segments like national subsidy products and service consumption continuing to perform well [2][5]. Group 1: Sales Performance - During the Labor Day holiday in 2025, key retail and catering enterprises in China reported a sales increase of 6.3% compared to the same period last year, although this represents a slight decline from the 6.8% growth seen in 2024 [2]. - The sales of home appliances, automobiles, and communication equipment saw significant year-on-year growth of 15.5%, 13.7%, and 10.5% respectively during the holiday [2]. - The restaurant sector also performed well, with a year-on-year increase of 8.7% in sales for monitored catering enterprises [2]. Group 2: Service Consumption - Travel orders during the Labor Day holiday increased by 30% compared to the same period in 2023, with hotel bookings reaching a historical peak [2]. - Data from Douyin indicated a remarkable growth in accommodation group purchase orders by 79% and hotel scenic area package orders by 116% during the holiday period [2]. Group 3: Inbound and Duty-Free Sales - Inbound tourism spending in Beijing reached 1.13 billion yuan, marking a 48% year-on-year increase [3]. - Shanghai's duty-free sales saw a year-on-year increase of 120%, with the tax refund amount also rising by 130% [3]. Group 4: Duty-Free Shopping Trends - During the Labor Day holiday, duty-free shopping in Hainan amounted to 510 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 7.3%, but the drop was less severe compared to the 15.9% decline during the Spring Festival [4]. - The average spending per person in duty-free shopping increased by 1.1% compared to the previous year, continuing the upward trend observed during the Spring Festival [4]. Group 5: Structural Highlights in Consumption - The national subsidy policy has expanded its coverage and increased subsidy amounts, leading to significant growth in sales of home appliances and other electronic products [5]. - The demand for investment-grade gold products has risen, alongside a growing preference for well-designed and branded gold jewelry [5]. - Emotional consumption is on the rise, with products based on popular IPs, such as blind boxes and figurines, performing exceptionally well [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the wholesale and retail trade industry, indicating an expected investment return exceeding 15% over the next 6-12 months compared to the market benchmark index [5]. Core Insights - The retail and catering sales during the 2025 Labor Day holiday increased by 6.3% year-on-year, showing a recovery from the previous quarter's growth of 4.1% [1][2]. - Key categories such as national subsidies and service consumption continue to perform strongly, with significant sales growth in home appliances (15.5%), automobiles (13.7%), and communication devices (10.5%) [1]. - Service consumption also saw high growth, with restaurant revenues up 8.7% year-on-year and travel orders increasing by 30% compared to 2023 [2]. - The report highlights a narrowing decline in offshore duty-free sales, with a total of 510 million yuan spent during the holiday, a decrease of 7.3% year-on-year, and an increase in per capita spending by 1.1% [3]. Summary by Sections Retail Sales Performance - The 2025 Labor Day retail sales showed a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, with a slight decline from 6.8% in 2024 but an improvement from 4.1% in the previous quarter [1]. Key Categories - National subsidy-related categories saw significant sales growth, with home appliances, automobiles, and communication devices showing increases of 15.5%, 13.7%, and 10.5% respectively [1]. - E-commerce platforms also reported over 20% growth in smart home product sales [1]. Service Consumption - Restaurant revenues increased by 8.7% year-on-year during the holiday period, outperforming the overall market [2]. - Travel-related orders surged, with a 30% increase in orders compared to 2023, and hotel bookings reached a historical peak [2]. Offshore Duty-Free Sales - The report notes a narrowing decline in offshore duty-free sales, with total spending of 510 million yuan during the holiday, down 7.3% year-on-year, and a decrease in the number of shoppers by 8.0% [3]. Overall Consumption Trends - The report indicates steady growth in overall consumption, with specific attention to national subsidy categories, gold and jewelry retail, and emotional consumption products [4].