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我国经济总体产出扩张略有加快
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-10-01 05:31
Economic Overview - In September, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, marking two consecutive months of increase [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, while the composite PMI output index rose to 50.6%, up 0.1 percentage points [1] Manufacturing Sector - Manufacturing production activities accelerated, with the production index at 51.9%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the expansion zone for five consecutive months [1] - The new orders index for manufacturing was 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points, indicating a stabilization in market demand [1] - The new export orders index was 47.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, reflecting a narrowing decline in export demand [1] Industry Performance - In September, the PMI for equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods industries were 51.9%, 51.6%, and 50.6% respectively, all significantly above the manufacturing average [2] - Large enterprises showed stable growth with a PMI of 51.0%, while small enterprises improved slightly with a PMI of 48.2%, up 1.6 percentage points [2] Future Outlook - The average PMI for the manufacturing sector in Q3 was 49.5%, indicating a slight recovery compared to Q2 and the same period last year [3] - Expectations for manufacturing activities are positive, with a production and operation expectation index of 54.1%, up 0.4 percentage points, suggesting improved market outlook [2][3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index remained stable at 50%, indicating steady performance in the sector [3] Financial Sector - The financial sector's business activity index rose above 60%, with new orders also increasing, indicating strong support for the real economy [4] - The telecommunications and software services sectors maintained high business activity indices, reflecting ongoing growth in new economy sectors [4] Policy and Demand - There is an expectation for macroeconomic policies to be strengthened in Q4, which may boost market confidence and demand [5] - Seasonal factors such as holidays and promotional events are anticipated to enhance consumer demand in the coming months [3][5]
我国经济总体产出扩张略有加快 制造业采购经理指数连续2个月上升
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-09-30 21:59
Economic Overview - In September, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, marking two consecutive months of increase [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating stability in the non-manufacturing sector [1] - The comprehensive PMI output index rose to 50.6%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, suggesting a slight acceleration in overall economic output [1] Manufacturing Sector - Manufacturing production activities accelerated, with the production index at 51.9%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the expansion zone for five consecutive months [1] - The new orders index for manufacturing was 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a stabilization in market demand [1] - The new export orders index was 47.8%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a narrowing decline in export demand [1] New Growth Drivers - In September, the PMIs for equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods were 51.9%, 51.6%, and 50.6% respectively, all significantly above the manufacturing average [2] - Large enterprises showed stable growth with a PMI of 51.0%, while small enterprises improved slightly with a PMI of 48.2%, up 1.6 percentage points from the previous month [2] - The manufacturing production and business activity expectation index was 54.1%, indicating positive market expectations among manufacturers [2] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index remained stable at 50%, despite a slight decrease from the previous month [3] - The service sector PMI was 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points from August, reflecting seasonal trends and the timing of the Mid-Autumn Festival [3][4] - Financial services showed strong performance with a business activity index above 60%, indicating robust support for the real economy [4] Future Outlook - The third quarter average manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, indicating a consolidation of economic recovery compared to the second quarter and the same period last year [3] - Expectations for the fourth quarter include increased macroeconomic policies to boost market confidence and demand, driven by holiday consumption and infrastructure projects [3][4] - The non-manufacturing sector is expected to stabilize and recover, supported by seasonal effects and ongoing macroeconomic adjustments [4]
制造业PMI连续两个月回升,后续怎么看?:——2025年9月PMI点评
EBSCN· 2025-09-30 10:42
2025 年 9 月 30 日 总量研究 制造业 PMI 连续两个月回升,后续怎么看? ——2025 年 9 月 PMI 点评 作者 执业证书编号:S0930522030001 021-52523880 liuxc@ebscn.com 相关研报 8 月经济运行的三点特征——2025 年 8 月 PMI 点评(2025-08-31) 7 月制造业 PMI 缘何回落?——2025 年 7 月 PMI 点评(2025-07-31) 外部扰动减弱,内生动能修复——2025 年 6 月 PMI 点评(2025-06-30) "抢出口"带动制造业 PMI 回暖——2025 年 5 月 PMI 点评(2025-05-31) 经济新动能加快释放——2025 年 3 月 PMI 点评(2025-03-31) 2 月制造业 PMI"开门红"——2025 年 2 月 PMI 点评(2025-03-01) 分析师:赵格格 执业证书编号:S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 分析师:刘星辰 1 月制造业 PMI 为何回落?——2025 年 1 月 PMI 点评(2025-01- ...
制造业景气水平继续改善 市场活力趋于上升——透视9月PMI数据
Xin Hua Wang· 2025-09-30 08:08
Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for September is 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued improvement in manufacturing activity [1] - The production index rose to 51.9%, up 1.1 percentage points, reaching a six-month high, while the new orders index increased to 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points [1] - Industries such as food and beverage, automotive, and aerospace equipment showed production and new order indices above 54.0%, indicating rapid demand release [1] Group 2: Market Demand and Supply - The procurement volume index increased to 51.6%, driven by the recovery in manufacturing production, as companies accelerated raw material purchases [1] - The new export orders index rose to 47.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, marking two consecutive months of increase, supported by stable performance in traditional export sectors [2] - The production-related indices indicate a steady increase in manufacturing activities since the second half of the year, with supply-side vitality continuing to rise [2] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points, indicating overall stability in the sector [3] - The service sector business activity index is at 50.1%, remaining in the expansion zone, with sectors like postal and financial services showing strong growth [3] - The financial sector's business activity index has risen above 60% for two consecutive months, indicating robust performance and support for the real economy [3] Group 4: Future Expectations - The production and business activity expectation index for September is 54.1%, up 0.4 percentage points, reflecting positive market outlook among manufacturing enterprises [2] - The service sector business activity expectation index is at 56.3%, indicating stable optimism among service industry enterprises regarding future development [4] - Experts anticipate a demand surge in the restaurant and entertainment sectors due to the upcoming National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, which may boost industry performance [4]
9月PMI出炉!金融业成亮点
券商中国· 2025-09-30 07:05
Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI for September is 49.8%, indicating a 0.4 percentage point increase from August, marking two consecutive months of recovery, while the non-manufacturing business activity index remains stable at 50% [1][2] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI has shown a slight increase, reflecting the effectiveness of various growth-stabilizing policies [2] - Among the 13 sub-indices, production index, new orders index, and procurement volume index have risen, while order-related indices remain below the threshold, indicating persistent demand challenges [2][3] - The equipment manufacturing and consumer goods sectors show rising purchasing price indices above 50%, suggesting increased raw material costs, while the basic raw materials sector faces pressure due to weak real estate investment [3] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50%, indicating stability, with the financial sector's index exceeding 60%, providing a favorable environment for economic recovery [4][5] - New momentum industries, such as telecommunications and internet services, are performing well, with significant increases in business activity indices [5] - The construction sector remains weak, with indices below 50%, highlighting the need for improved project execution and funding [5] Economic Outlook - The third quarter saw a slight improvement in manufacturing PMI, averaging 49.5%, indicating a consolidation of economic recovery compared to previous quarters [6] - The non-manufacturing sector maintained stability, with an average business activity index of 50.1% for the third quarter [6] - Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, macroeconomic policies are expected to strengthen, with anticipated boosts in consumer demand and infrastructure projects driving economic activity [6][7] - Manufacturing firms exhibit increased optimism for the fourth quarter, with the production activity expectation index rising to 54.1% [7]
9月PMI出炉,制造业连升两月,金融业成亮点
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-09-30 04:56
Group 1 - In September, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from August, marking two consecutive months of growth [1][3] - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index stood at 50%, indicating stable overall operations, while the comprehensive PMI output index remained in expansion [1][6] - The financial sector's business activity index rose above 60%, outperforming the same period last year, providing a favorable financial environment for economic recovery [5][6] Group 2 - The production index, new orders index, and purchasing volume index showed signs of recovery, while order indices remained below the threshold, highlighting persistent demand challenges [3][4] - The construction sector's business activity index remained below 50%, indicating weak growth in investment-related construction activities [7] - The overall economic outlook for the fourth quarter is positive, driven by macroeconomic policy support, holiday consumption, and project launches [8][10] Group 3 - The average PMI for the manufacturing sector in the third quarter was 49.5%, showing a slight increase compared to the second quarter and the same period last year [9] - The non-manufacturing sector maintained stable operations with an average business activity index of 50.1% in the third quarter [9] - Expectations for the fourth quarter are optimistic, with manufacturing enterprises showing increased confidence in production activities [10]
9月PMI出炉!制造业连升两月,金融业成亮点
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-09-30 04:48
9月30日,国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布的中国采购经理指数显示,9月份制 造业采购经理指数(制造业PMI)为49.8%,较8月上升0.4个百分点,实现连续两个月回升;非制造业 商务活动指数为50%,处于临界点,整体运行平稳;综合PMI产出指数保持扩张。 9月份中国非制造业商务活动指数为50%,环比下降0.3个百分点,位于临界点。中国物流与采购联合会 副会长何辉认为,9月份,商务活动指数较上月下降,但仍稳定在50%,与去年同期持平,显示非制造 业经营活动保持平稳。 分析指出,生产端和企业采购活动显现恢复迹象,稳增长政策效果正进一步显现。同期,非制造业运行 保持平稳,其中金融业商务活动指数升至60%以上,且好于去年同期,为经济回升提供了有利的金融环 境。不过,分析也指出,市场需求不足仍是当前核心挑战,制造业订单类指数均处于荣枯线以下,同时 建筑业活动偏弱,反映出经济复苏的基础尚需加固。展望四季度,在宏观政策加力,节假日消费、项目 发力及企业乐观预期的共同推动下,宏观经济有望继续向好回升。 制造业PMI连续两个月上升 9月份制造业PMI为49.8%,比上月上升0.4个百分点,连续两个月上升。中 ...
8月份制造业采购经理指数小幅回升,制造业景气水平有所改善
Bei Ke Cai Jing· 2025-09-01 14:52
Core Viewpoint - In August, China's economic indicators showed a slight recovery, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.4%, non-manufacturing business activity index at 50.3%, and composite PMI output index at 50.5%, indicating overall economic expansion despite ongoing pressures [1][2]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI increased to 49.4%, reflecting improved economic conditions, with production and demand indices rising, and price indices continuing to increase [2]. - Among 13 sub-indices, production index, new orders index, and others showed increases ranging from 0.1 to 1.8 percentage points, while finished goods inventory and employment indices declined by 0.6 and 0.1 percentage points respectively [2]. - Analysts suggest that the slight recovery in manufacturing PMI indicates the initial effects of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand, although the index remains below the threshold for five consecutive months, highlighting persistent economic downward pressure [2][3]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose to 50.3%, indicating continued expansion, with significant recovery in the service sector, although the construction sector saw a decline [5]. - Key indices such as new orders, backlogs, and sales prices showed increases between 0.1 and 1.1 percentage points, while new export orders and input prices remained stable [5][6]. - The banking sector and capital market services are maintaining expansion, with strong financial support for the real economy, and summer consumption positively impacting transportation and entertainment sectors [6]. Economic Outlook - Forecasts suggest that in September and the fourth quarter, China's macroeconomic environment will continue to stabilize and improve, with manufacturing market demand expected to recover and production activities expanding [4][8]. - The overall growth momentum in the non-manufacturing sector remains stable, driven by policy support and market self-repair, with a focus on cultivating effective demand increments [7][8].
周末重磅!统计局公布!预期9月及四季度内需潜力将持续释放
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-08-31 08:44
Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for August is reported at 49.4%, indicating a slight improvement in economic conditions compared to the previous month [1][2] - The non-manufacturing business activity index and the comprehensive PMI output index are at 50.3% and 50.5% respectively, both showing increases of 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points from last month [1][2] Market Price Trends - The overall market price index for manufacturing continues to improve, with the main raw material purchase price index at 53.3% and the factory price index at 49.1%, both rising for three consecutive months [2] - The increase in procurement volume index to 50.4% reflects a recovery in market demand, while the improvement in price indices indicates a stabilization in market competition [2] Financial Services Performance - The business activity index for the financial services sector remains above 50%, indicating expansion, with both the banking and capital market services showing strong performance [3] - The new order index for financial services also reflects positive trends, supporting the overall stability of the economy [3] Consumer Activity Insights - The transportation and entertainment sectors show strong performance, with indices for railway and air transport remaining above 59%, indicating active consumer travel [4] - The accommodation and catering sectors have also seen significant increases in their business activity indices, with notable month-on-month improvements [4][5] Future Economic Outlook - The comprehensive PMI output index indicates a continued expansion in production activities, with manufacturing expectations improving to 53.7% [6] - Positive internal and external factors are expected to support economic growth, including the easing of extreme weather conditions and ongoing trade negotiations [6][7] - Policies aimed at stabilizing economic growth are anticipated to inject new momentum into the economy, particularly in emerging sectors like artificial intelligence [7]
三大指数回升,国家统计局最新发布
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-08-31 04:28
Economic Overview - The economic climate in China continues to improve, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.4%, non-manufacturing business activity index at 50.3%, and composite PMI output index at 50.5%, all showing an increase from the previous month [1][2] - The overall economic situation is expected to remain stable and improve, with potential for domestic demand to be released in September and the fourth quarter [1][6] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI remains below the critical 50% mark, indicating ongoing pressure from insufficient demand on production and operations [1] - The production index, new orders index, and other sub-indices have shown improvements, with the raw material purchase price index at 53.3% and factory price index at 49.1%, both rising for three consecutive months [2] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index has stabilized above 50%, with the financial services and capital market service sectors showing strong performance, both indices above 60% [3] - The hospitality and restaurant sectors have also seen significant increases, with the restaurant business activity index rising above 50% [4] Emerging Industries - The information services sector, particularly telecommunications and internet services, is experiencing robust growth, with business activity indices above 55% [5] - The "Artificial Intelligence+" initiative is expected to further enhance the application scenarios and development potential of the information services industry [5] Future Outlook - The composite PMI output index indicates a continued expansion in production activities, with manufacturing expectations improving to 53.7% [6] - External factors such as the easing of extreme weather conditions and ongoing US-China trade negotiations are anticipated to support stable foreign trade [6][7] - The potential for domestic demand to be released is expected to continue, driven by policy support and market self-correction [7]