投资有风险，入市需谨慎 国内外宏观经济数据 股指、黄金周度报告 新纪元期货研究 20251212 今年11月进口同比增长1.9%，出口同比增长5.9%，增速分别较上月加快0.9和7个百分 点。CPI同比上涨0.7%,涨幅较上月扩大0.5个百分点，PPI同比下降2.2%，降幅比上月 扩大0.1个百分点，主要受去年同期基数抬升和部分工业品价格下跌的影响。 期货6+" 目标导向，问题出口: 惠农保价稳产 数据来源：同花顺iFind 新纪元期货研究 期货6+" 目标导向，问题出口: 股指、黄金现货价格走势 IF 惠农保价稳产 IC IH AU 数据来源：同花顺iFind 新纪元期货研究 股指基本面数据 随着"两新"政策的效用边际减弱，以及汽车、家电、移动通讯等耐用品需求提前释 放，相关行业利润增长放缓，下游企业经营压力依然较大，仍在主动去库存阶段。 利率 流动性 沪深两市融资余额上升至24888.31亿元，央行本周共开展6685亿7天期逆回购操作， 实现净投放47亿元。 数据来源：同花顺iFind 新纪元期货研究 企业盈利 资金面 黄金基本面数据 惠农保价稳产 无风险利率：持有成本 通胀水平 美联储12月会议如期降息 ...

世纪工程平陆运河计划在明年底建成通航，这一工程将为广西开辟新的物流通道，更将重构广西区域发 展空间布局，推动区域联动发展。 11月28日晚，在广西壮族自治区党委新闻发布会上，广西壮族自治区党委常委、自治区常务副主席许永 锞介绍，"十五五"期间，广西将以平陆运河为牵引，吸引原材料加工等适水产业沿江沿河集聚，推 动"珠江西江经济带—平陆运河经济带—沿海经济带""工"字形经济带成型，激活区域发展新动能。 平陆运河示意图。资料来源：平陆运河集团 广西社会科学院区域发展研究所所长吴坚向第一财经表示，广西"十五五"规划建议明确提出要"推动建 设珠江—西江经济带—平陆运河经济带—沿海经济带的'工'字形经济带"，这是广西首次提出如此清晰 的空间发展战略框架。 平陆运河规划全长约135公里，按内河I级航道标准建设，通航5000吨级船舶，项目估算总投资约727亿 元，2022年开工建设。今年9月，官方发布，截至9月10日，平陆运河累计完成投资592.5亿元，占总投 资的81.5%，预计2026年年底建成通航。 平陆运河项目建成后将西江干流与北部湾连通，建成后将缩短西江中上游地区入海航程约560公里，上 游地区货物不需再经珠江、长 ...

Group 1: PPI Trends and Economic Impact - Since July, the "anti-involution" policy has led to a rebound in some commodity prices, suggesting that PPI may stabilize and rise in the second half of the year[1] - As of July 2025, the cumulative decline in PPI is 9.6%, with a duration of 37 months, which is longer than the median duration of previous declines[10] - If PPI stabilizes and rises, it is expected to accelerate corporate profits, nominal GDP growth, and residents' income growth[1] - During PPI rising periods, the median year-on-year growth rate of industrial enterprises' revenue is 24.1%, while during falling periods, it drops to 5.4%[21] Group 2: Industry and Consumption Insights - In July, China's retail sales growth narrowed to 3.7%, the lowest in six months, indicating a slowdown in consumer spending[35] - The operating rate of blast furnaces remains above 83%, while PTA operating rates have seen significant declines recently[35] - The real estate market has shown signs of cooling after a brief improvement in transaction volumes[35] Group 3: Macro Policy and Market Performance - The central bank has implemented policies to maintain liquidity and reduce financing costs, including interest subsidies for personal consumption loans[3] - As of August 16, the Chinese equity market has outperformed major asset classes, driven by a strong M1 growth rate and reduced deposit willingness due to equity market gains[2] - The upcoming Jackson Hole global central bank meeting from August 21 to 23 is a key event to watch for potential policy implications[65] Group 4: Risks and Considerations - There are concerns regarding the sustainability of macro policies, potential declines in the real estate market, and increasing geopolitical risks[66] - The high actual interest rates resulting from declining PPI may suppress credit demand, impacting overall economic activity[32]

Group 1: PPI Trends - In June, the PPI decline expanded to 3.6%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from May, marking the lowest level since July 2023[6] - The decline in PPI is primarily driven by the midstream sector, with midstream raw material processing PPI dropping to -5.9% year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.3 percentage points to the overall decline[10] - The capacity utilization rate in the raw material processing industry was significantly below the historical 50th percentile in Q1 2025, indicating potential overcapacity in the sector[10] Group 2: CPI Recovery - In June, the CPI unexpectedly turned positive, rising by 0.1% year-on-year, with both food and non-food CPI increasing by 0.1 percentage points[16] - The core CPI also saw a year-on-year increase, reaching 0.7%, the highest in 14 months, driven mainly by a recovery in consumer goods prices[16] - The recovery in CPI is attributed to three factors: a seasonal rise in vegetable prices, reduced energy drag from international oil prices, and a rebound in industrial consumer goods prices[20] Group 3: Risks and Outlook - Geopolitical risks and unexpected increases in international oil prices are significant risk factors that could impact future economic conditions[23] - Despite the CPI's recovery, there remains a risk of a phase-down if short-term factors dissipate, indicating that further support for CPI is needed[21]