广发证券表示，服务型消费可能是中国未来宏观经济的刚需方向。与日本90年代近似，随着Z世代成 长，社会消费结构正在发生调整，服务型消费的支出占比不断提升。与此同时，与服务型消费联系紧密 的情绪消费、悦己消费等新消费不断涌现。消费者偏好变化曲线可能提供服务型消费的特征线索，中国 消费结构向情感价值驱动型迁移，消费者偏向转向情绪价值类消费以及"质价比"消费。 成分股方面，海尔智家涨超6%，申洲国际、思摩尔国际、波司登、李宁、百威亚太、理想汽车-W、统 一企业中国等多股跟涨。 （本文机构观点来自持牌证券机构，不构成任何投资建议，亦不代表平台观点，请投资人独立判断和决 策。） 资金流向方面，Wind数据显示，港股消费ETF（159735）已连续4个交易日获资金净流入，累计净流入 额超8500万元。 8月29日，港股主要指数集体高开，消费板块走势分化，食品饮料涨幅靠前，日常消费零售、耐用品消 费下跌。 消息面上，据央视网，8月27日，国新办就中国服务贸易发展和2025年服贸会筹备工作进展情况举行新 闻发布会，商务部副部长盛秋平在会上表示，我国消费形态已经逐步转向以商品消费和服务消费并重的 阶段，下一步，商务部将加强政策促 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is expected to maintain a relatively good performance in the short term, primarily due to backlog orders in the export sector and the positive impact of the "trade-in" policy on retail [2][3][5]. Short-term Economic Analysis - In the next couple of months, China's export growth is likely to remain high, potentially close to April's 8% growth, driven by backlog orders and the upcoming trade negotiations [3][5]. - The GDP growth for the second quarter is projected to be around 4.8%, but challenges are anticipated in the second half of the year due to several factors [3][5]. - The increase in tariffs on Chinese products by the U.S. has risen by approximately 35 percentage points, significantly impacting exports, especially with the tariff on small packages rising to about 54% [5][6]. - The positive effects of the "trade-in" policies for durable goods are expected to diminish in the latter half of the year, leading to potential negative effects on consumption [6]. - The real estate sector, crucial for domestic demand, is in its fifth year of decline, with new housing starts down by 22% year-on-year, complicating efforts to stabilize domestic demand [6]. Policy Recommendations - The Chinese government has effectively intervened in the stock market and maintained the stability of the RMB against the USD, which is crucial for economic stability [9][10]. - Further fiscal policies should be considered to accelerate spending and debt issuance, especially in light of anticipated declines in export growth [10]. - Stabilizing the real estate market is critical, requiring measures beyond traditional tools like interest rate cuts, including allowing necessary bankruptcies and ensuring the completion of pre-sold properties [10][11]. - Structural reforms in the social security system are needed to enhance the income levels of the elderly, which could improve consumption capacity and alleviate burdens on migrant workers [11]. - Fiscal reform is essential to improve local government finances and create independent revenue sources beyond real estate, which is vital for enhancing the business environment and stimulating domestic demand [12].