1.2026年中国人民银行工作会议1月5日-6日召开，会议强调，继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，发挥增量政策和存量政策集成效 应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，着力扩大内需、优化供给，防范化解风险、稳定社会预期。 2.12月份全国建筑钢材生产企业共计26家企业进行了减产检修，较上月减少16家；影响建筑钢材产量259.21万吨，环比增加 28.74%。 早盘速递 2026/1/7 热点资讯 | | | | 大类资产表现 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 类别 | 名称 | 日涨跌幅% | 月内涨跌幅% | 年内涨跌幅（%） | 近一年走势 | | | 上证指数 | 1.50 | 2.89 | 2.89 | | | | 上证50 | 1.90 | 4.21 | 4.21 | | | | 沪深300 | 1.55 | 3.47 | 3.47 | | | | 中证500 | 2.13 | 4.67 | 4.67 | | | 权益 | 标普500 | 0.62 | 1.45 | 1.45 | | | | 恒生指数 | 1.38 | 4.21 | 4.21 | | | ...

晨报 铝锭 成文时间： 2025 年 12 月 25 日 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日沪铝高位震荡。宏观上海内外宏观情绪偏向利好，市场对美 联储降息预期增强，美联储官员正在平衡就业市场放缓的风险和对顽固高 通胀的担忧，利多铝价及有色金属板块。 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：宏观仍有支撑 关注高位压力 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-2085765 ...

晨报 铝锭 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 以伊冲突 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下降 40.3%，同比增长 43.2%。 成材昨日继续震荡下行，价格再创近期新低。在供需双弱的格局下， 市场情绪同样偏悲观，导致价格重心持续下移。无论从宏观上还是产业上， 市场近期均无太多亮点。且今年冬储偏低迷，对价格支撑不强。 观点：震荡整理运行。 后期关注/风险因素：宏观政策；下游需求情况。 成 材：武秋婷 原材料：程 鹏 有色金属：于梦雪 基本面来看，本周国产矿供应偏紧格局延续。据 SMM 调研，北方地区 铝土矿仍处于逐步复产阶段，供矿依旧不稳定，当前国产铝土矿库存量仍 然偏低，区域内阶段性供应偏紧压力延续。尽管 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Report's Core View - The finished products are expected to move in a sideways consolidation manner, with a continued downward trend in price, and the price center of gravity continues to shift downward due to the weak supply - demand pattern and pessimistic market sentiment. The winter storage this year is sluggish, providing weak support for prices [1][2]. - The price of aluminum is expected to be strong in the short - term, showing a high - level shock. Attention should be paid to the macro - sentiment, mine - end news, inventory - consumption trends, and high - level pressure [1][2][3]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Finished Products - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival, with an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills has stopped production on January 5, and most of the others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [1][2]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2]. - The finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low. The market sentiment is pessimistic, and the winter storage is sluggish, with weak price support [2]. 3.2 Aluminum - Macroscopically, US data shows a weak labor market, increasing the expectation of the Fed to cut interest rates again this year. The market is concerned about the impact of Trump's trade policy and the risks related to the long - term government shutdown [1]. - The alumina market has a continuous supply - demand relaxation pattern, with spot prices under pressure. Industry profitability has shrunk, and some high - cost enterprises face operational pressure. Environmental policies may restrict production during the heating season and carbon emission verification [2]. - Downstream electrolytic aluminum enterprises have weak procurement willingness, mainly for rigid - demand replenishment. Raw material inventory has accumulated to 3.202 million tons, and the total industry inventory has increased by 92,000 tons to a historical high of 4.599 million tons [2]. - The weekly starting rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises is 61.6%, a 0.6 - percentage - point decrease from last week. The starting rates of aluminum cables, profiles, strips, and foils have all declined [2]. - On November 6, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 622,000 tons. In November, the pressure of weak inventory accumulation increases, which may have a negative impact on aluminum prices [2].

Core Viewpoint - Domestic urban construction steel prices are experiencing a weak trend, with spot prices generally declining by 0-20 yuan per ton, indicating a poor market transaction atmosphere [1] Summary by Category Price Movement - On October 11, domestic urban construction steel prices showed a weak performance, with a general decline in spot prices ranging from 0 to 20 yuan per ton [1] Market Activity - The total transaction volume of construction steel nationwide reached 91,389 tons, representing a day-on-day decrease of 7.09% [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with its center of gravity shifting downward and showing a weak performance [1][3] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to remain high in the short term, with the market's supply - demand pattern improving marginally and social inventory decreasing due to pre - holiday stocking [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yungui region's short - flow construction steel producers will have a shutdown and maintenance period from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - flow steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The price of finished products continued to decline with a new low, and the market sentiment was pessimistic under the weak supply - demand pattern and lackluster winter storage [3] Aluminum - Macroscopically, there are increasing differences within the Fed on future monetary policy, and a balance needs to be struck between high inflation and a weak employment market [2] - The supply of the aluminum market has a slight increase due to the ramping - up of replacement capacity, and the supply - demand pattern is improving marginally. As of last Thursday, the national metallurgical - grade alumina's total built - in capacity is 110.32 million tons/year, and the total operating capacity is 92.33 million tons/year, with the weekly operating rate up 0.92 percentage points to 83.69% [3] - The overall aluminum consumption is warming up, with stable growth in the automotive industry, growth expectations in the power industry, and marginal improvement in the construction industry. The operating rate of processed materials is rising steadily [3] - On September 25, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 617,000 tons, a decrease of 21,000 tons from Monday and last Thursday [3]

Core Viewpoint - Silver Dragon Co., Ltd. has signed a steel purchase contract with China Railway Shanghai Engineering Bureau Group, amounting to 165 million yuan [1] Group 1 - The contract was signed on September 9, 2025, under the contract number SXTL-3-WZMM-2025048 [1] - The total contract value is 165 million yuan [1]

Report Overview 1) Industry Investment Rating - No clear industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move down with a weak trend, and the aluminum price is expected to run at a high level. The finished products are expected to be in a state of shock and consolidation, while the aluminum price is expected to have short - term range fluctuations [1][3][4]. 3) Summary by Related Content Finished Products - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown is from mid - January, with an expected impact on the total output of 741,000 tons. Anhui's 6 short - process steel mills have different shutdown times, with a daily impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2][3]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% month - on - month and increased by 43.2% year - on - year [3]. - The price of finished products continued to decline, hitting a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center continued to move down. Winter storage was sluggish this year, with weak price support [3]. - The view is that the finished products will run in a state of shock and consolidation, and later attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [3]. Aluminum - Macro - level: The US data on Thursday triggered market concerns about the inflation and the interest - rate cut process. Traders tend to expect a 25 - basis - point cut next month and another 25 - basis - point cut in October [2]. - Fundamentals: As of Thursday, the national metallurgical alumina's total built capacity is 110.32 million tons/year, and the total operating capacity is 91.79 million tons/year. The weekly operating rate increased by 0.63 percentage points to 83.20%. The domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises' operating rate increased slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7%. The aluminum cable operating rate remained stable at 61.8%. The total output of aluminum rods in July was 360,500 tons, a decrease of 29,600 tons from June. The operating rate of aluminum rod manufacturers was only 53.2%, a decrease of 6.89% month - on - month and 6.7% year - on - year [3]. - Inventory: On August 14, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 588,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from Monday and 24,000 tons from last Thursday [3]. - Outlook: The macro - level interest - rate cut expectation supports the price. The short - term aluminum price is boosted by mine - end news. It is expected to run at a high level in the near future. The 8 - month aluminum rod supply - demand pattern is expected to improve, but attention should be paid to macro - sentiment, mine - end news, etc. [4].

Economic Overview - In 2025, China's economy faces a more complex external environment, with increased trade protectionism prompting the government to enhance counter-cyclical adjustments and implement more proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies [1] Construction Steel Demand - In the first half of 2025, demand for construction steel continues to decline, with the real estate sector stabilizing while infrastructure investment plays a stabilizing role [2] - Infrastructure investment growth has slowed, with a fiscal deficit rate planned at around 4%, increasing the deficit scale to 5.66 trillion yuan, and public budget expenditure rising to 29.7 trillion yuan [3] Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment (including electricity) grew by 8.9% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, while investment excluding electricity grew by 4.6% [3] - The government plans to issue 4.4 trillion yuan in special bonds for local governments, an increase of 500 billion yuan from the previous year, focusing on investment construction and debt repayment [3] Real Estate Market - The real estate market shows initial signs of stabilization, with various indicators of decline narrowing, although real estate investment still decreased by 11.2% year-on-year [4][6] - New housing starts fell by 20.0%, with the rate of decline narrowing by 3.0 percentage points compared to the previous year [6] Future Outlook for Steel Demand - In the second half of 2025, construction steel demand is expected to stage a temporary recovery, supported by strong domestic demand policies and increased infrastructure investment [9] - The issuance of special bonds is accelerating, with 28.02 billion yuan issued by August 7, 2025, which is 63.7% of the annual total, indicating a potential increase in infrastructure investment growth [9] Overall Market Trends - The real estate sector is expected to continue a "weak recovery, slow stabilization" trend, with new construction and completion indicators likely to see reduced year-on-year declines but not achieve positive growth [10] - Infrastructure investment is anticipated to accelerate, becoming a key driver for economic growth, although upward potential remains limited due to local fiscal constraints [10]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report suggests taking a short - selling approach on rallies for both finished products and raw materials [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Real Estate Transaction Data - From June 9th to June 15th, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.6088 million square meters, with a 24% month - on - month increase and a 3.6% year - on - year decrease; the total transaction (signing) area of second - hand housing was 2.1823 million square meters, with a 17.8% month - on - month increase and a 5.4% year - on - year increase [3] Steel Mill Cost and Profit - On June 17th, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3262 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2 yuan/ton, an average profit loss of 129 yuan/ton, and a valley - electricity profit loss of 26 yuan/ton [3] Market Situation and Suggestion - The finished products oscillated and sorted at a low level yesterday, with downstream demand seasonally weakened and difficult to improve effectively in the short term, while high - start and high - output situations still exist, presenting a situation of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to try short - selling on rallies [3] - The view on raw materials is also to try short - selling on rallies [3]