近日，中信里昂一年一度的风水研报出炉。 研报强调"2026年将告别蛇年的犹豫试探，马年以自信之姿，携万钧之势奔腾而至"。从中信里昂给出的风水指数图来看，恒生指数马年走势节奏鲜明：2月触底后一 路走高至6月，7月迎来回调，后续小幅震荡上行至11月，12月显著下挫，直至2027年1月迎来强势反弹。其中3月至6月，恒生指数将迎来一波较大的上涨行情。 看好2026年的恒生指数 报告强调"2026年将告别蛇年的犹豫试探，马年以自信之姿，携万钧之势奔腾而至"。"岁初走势或如脱缰野马，纵横驰骋；但随着时间推移，稳健之势将逐步显现。 等到年关将近，市场又将掀起新一轮变局风云。"中信里昂分阶段研判明年港股形势。 中信里昂对2026年每个月的恒生指数走势，都给出了较为明确的预测。2月，恒生指数开局表现不尽如人意，以下跌之势拉开全年序幕；3月，市场将迎来一轮小幅 上扬；4月，市场将显著攀升；5月，指数再迎一波不俗上涨；6月，指数迎来年度最强跃升；7月，指数上月大半涨幅将尽数回吐；8月，指数将再度上行一截；9 月，指数将小幅上扬；10月，指数陷入横盘震荡，上行突破乏力；11月，指数将稳步上行；12月，从预判的走势图来看，指数将显著回 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call focuses on the **2026 Feng Shui Index** and its implications for various industries, particularly the **real estate sector** and the **Hang Seng Index (HSI)**. Core Insights and Arguments - The **2025 market performance** was characterized by volatility, with the Hang Seng Index experiencing unexpected declines and subsequent rebounds, ultimately surpassing initial predictions [4][5]. - The **2026 Feng Shui Index** suggests a positive outlook for the year, with expectations of a strong market performance akin to a galloping horse, indicating a year of opportunities and potential surprises [8][12]. - The **real estate sector** is forecasted to face challenges, as it lacks direct auspicious influences in the current year's predictions. However, specific directions (East and Southeast) are noted to have favorable prospects, while the North and South may encounter disruptions [11][59]. - The **HSI**, categorized as an Earth element, is expected to benefit from the fire energy of the year, leading to a brighter outlook despite previous caution [11][12]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The **Feng Shui Index** integrates traditional Chinese metaphysics, including the Five Elements theory, to predict market trends and sector performances [39][46]. - The **Wood element** is expected to thrive in 2026, positively impacting industries related to agriculture, furniture, and pharmaceuticals, while the **Fire element** is anticipated to boost sectors like energy production and communications [42][46]. - The **Water element** is predicted to be weak, potentially hindering the shipping and trade industries, as well as sectors related to small goods and aquaculture [56]. - The **real estate sector** is expected to struggle, but construction materials like sand and cement may see growth, particularly towards the end of the year [49]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call, highlighting the anticipated trends and challenges across various sectors as influenced by the Feng Shui Index for 2026.

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in electronic prices is driven by a structural transformation due to explosive growth in the AI industry and rising upstream raw material costs, rather than simple cyclical fluctuations. The demand for AI is expected to continue growing rapidly, and under the backdrop of a weak dollar and resource nationalism, metal prices are likely to rise further, extending the electronic price surge into the end of this year and possibly early next year [1] Information Technology - By Q2 2025, memory prices are expected to reach a cyclical turning point due to production cuts by manufacturers and improved end-user demand. As major manufacturers shift capacity towards high-margin products like HBM, the supply of consumer-grade memory chips will continue to shrink, leading to an expanding supply-demand gap and rising prices. By the end of 2025, the rising costs of industrial metals and other raw materials will cause price increases to spread from memory chips to passive components, testing, packaging, and other segments of the entire industry chain, thereby increasing cost pressures on consumer electronics [2] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Index, and DXI Index have all risen this week, along with increases in DRAM and NAND memory prices. The three-month rolling year-on-year growth rate of semiconductor manufacturing equipment shipments from Japan has narrowed, while the three-month rolling year-on-year decline in optical cable production has also narrowed. Panel prices have increased, and the three-month rolling year-on-year growth rate of NB LCD shipments has expanded [2] Midstream Manufacturing - This week, prices for some positive electrode materials, lithium raw materials, and cobalt products have increased, while the prices of lithium hexafluorophosphate and DMC have decreased. The photovoltaic price index has risen, with prices for silicon materials increasing, while prices for silicon wafers and components have remained stable. The three-month rolling year-on-year decline in the production of packaging equipment has narrowed, and the three-month rolling year-on-year growth rate of metal forming machine tool production has also narrowed. The four-week rolling average of port cargo throughput and container throughput has increased year-on-year [3] Consumer Demand - Prices for fresh milk have risen, while the comprehensive price of sugar has decreased. Pork prices have increased, with the wholesale price of piglets remaining stable compared to last week, and the average price of live pigs has decreased. In terms of pig farming profits, both self-bred and purchased pig farming profits have increased. In the broiler farming sector, the price of broiler chicks has decreased. The vegetable price index has decreased, while the futures settlement price of corn has increased, and the futures settlement price of cotton has decreased. The ten-day average of box office revenue has increased, while the ten-day average of movie ticket prices has decreased [3] Resource Products - The ten-day average transaction volume of construction steel has decreased, while the prices of steel billets have remained stable and rebar prices have decreased. In terms of coal prices, the price of Qinhuangdao mixed power coal has decreased, while the price of Shanxi coking coal at Jingtang Port has increased. The futures settlement prices of coke and coking coal have both decreased. In terms of inventory, coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port has increased, while coking coal inventory at Jingtang Port has decreased, and coke inventory at Tianjin Port has increased. The national cement price index has decreased. Brent crude oil prices have increased, and the national chemical product price index has risen week-on-week, with chemical prices generally increasing, particularly for fuel oil and asphalt. This week, industrial metal prices have generally risen, with prices for copper, aluminum, zinc, tin, cobalt, and nickel increasing, while lead prices have decreased, and most inventories have risen. The prices of gold and silver in the spot and futures markets have increased [4] Financial Real Estate - The net injection in the money market has occurred. The turnover rate and daily transaction volume of A-shares have decreased. The land transaction premium rate has increased, while the transaction area of commercial housing has decreased. The number of second-hand houses listed for sale nationwide has decreased, while the listing price index has increased [4] Public Utilities - The ex-factory price of natural gas has increased. The year-on-year decline in the average daily power generation of key national power plants over a 12-week rolling period has narrowed [4]

1.2026年中国人民银行工作会议1月5日-6日召开，会议强调，继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，发挥增量政策和存量政策集成效 应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，着力扩大内需、优化供给，防范化解风险、稳定社会预期。 2.12月份全国建筑钢材生产企业共计26家企业进行了减产检修，较上月减少16家；影响建筑钢材产量259.21万吨，环比增加 28.74%。 早盘速递 2026/1/7 热点资讯 | | | | 大类资产表现 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 类别 | 名称 | 日涨跌幅% | 月内涨跌幅% | 年内涨跌幅（%） | 近一年走势 | | | 上证指数 | 1.50 | 2.89 | 2.89 | | | | 上证50 | 1.90 | 4.21 | 4.21 | | | | 沪深300 | 1.55 | 3.47 | 3.47 | | | | 中证500 | 2.13 | 4.67 | 4.67 | | | 权益 | 标普500 | 0.62 | 1.45 | 1.45 | | | | 恒生指数 | 1.38 | 4.21 | 4.21 | | | ...

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The price of finished steel products is expected to move downward with a weak trend, and the price of aluminum ingots is expected to remain high in the short - term with an oscillatory pattern, paying attention to the upper pressure [1][4] - The finished steel market is expected to be in an oscillatory and consolidating state, and the aluminum market is expected to have short - term high - level oscillations, focusing on macro - guidance [3][4] Group 3: Summary of Different Product Sections Finished Steel - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel producers will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th - 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5th, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily impact of about 16,200 tons [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% week - on - week decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase [3] - The finished steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with a pessimistic market sentiment, and the price center has been continuously moving down. The winter storage this year is sluggish and provides little support for prices [3] Aluminum - Macroscopically, both domestic and international sentiment is positive, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has increased, which is beneficial to aluminum prices and the non - ferrous metal sector [2] - The alumina market has a loose supply - demand pattern, with weak spot prices and cautious market sentiment. After the resumption of production in some enterprises in Guizhou and Guangxi, the production capacity has recovered, but the recovery in Henan is limited due to environmental protection. The weekly output increased by only 0.5 million tons, and the inventory increased by 0.5 million tons [3] - The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 61.5%. The operating rates of different sub - industries vary: the primary aluminum alloy industry remained stable at 60%; the aluminum plate and strip industry remained at 65.0% but was under pressure; the aluminum cable industry decreased slightly by 0.4% to 62%; the aluminum profile industry decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 51.6% [3] - On December 22, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 600,000 tons, a 4,000 - ton increase from the previous Monday. In late December, the supply pressure of aluminum ingots increased, and the demand was affected by environmental protection control and high prices, with the inventory expected to increase slightly [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints -成材预计震荡整理运行，关注宏观政策和下游需求情况[4] -铝锭预计价格短期偏强运行，关注宏观情绪和矿端消息[5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 成材 -云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节停产检修预计影响总产量74.1万吨，安徽省6家短流程钢厂部分已停产或计划1月中旬左右停产，停产日度影响产量1.62万吨左右[4] -2024年12月30日 - 2025年1月5日，10个重点城市新建商品房成交面积环比降40.3%，同比增43.2%[4] -成材昨日震荡下行价格创新低，供需双弱市场情绪悲观，价格重心下移，冬储低迷对价格支撑不强[4] 铝锭 -宏观上美联储预测不如部分投资者预期鹰派，美元下跌基本金属反弹，短期宏观情绪向好[3] -国产矿供应偏紧格局延续，北方铝土矿复产供矿不稳定，库存量低，但绝对库存高位，氧化铝价格走低，铝土矿价格预计仍有下跌空间[4] -国内铝下游加工龙头企业周度开工率环比降0.1%至61.8%，延续淡季偏弱态势，各细分板块有不同表现，再生铝下滑显著[4] -12月11日国内主流消费地电解铝锭库存较周一跌1.1万吨，较上周四跌1.2万吨[4] -宏观降息利好，供需格局边际改善支撑价格，国内淡季库存走势反复，价格短期高位震荡，高价抑制消费，关注宏观指引[5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Report's Core View - The finished products are expected to move in a sideways consolidation manner, with a continued downward trend in price, and the price center of gravity continues to shift downward due to the weak supply - demand pattern and pessimistic market sentiment. The winter storage this year is sluggish, providing weak support for prices [1][2]. - The price of aluminum is expected to be strong in the short - term, showing a high - level shock. Attention should be paid to the macro - sentiment, mine - end news, inventory - consumption trends, and high - level pressure [1][2][3]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Finished Products - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival, with an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills has stopped production on January 5, and most of the others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [1][2]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2]. - The finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low. The market sentiment is pessimistic, and the winter storage is sluggish, with weak price support [2]. 3.2 Aluminum - Macroscopically, US data shows a weak labor market, increasing the expectation of the Fed to cut interest rates again this year. The market is concerned about the impact of Trump's trade policy and the risks related to the long - term government shutdown [1]. - The alumina market has a continuous supply - demand relaxation pattern, with spot prices under pressure. Industry profitability has shrunk, and some high - cost enterprises face operational pressure. Environmental policies may restrict production during the heating season and carbon emission verification [2]. - Downstream electrolytic aluminum enterprises have weak procurement willingness, mainly for rigid - demand replenishment. Raw material inventory has accumulated to 3.202 million tons, and the total industry inventory has increased by 92,000 tons to a historical high of 4.599 million tons [2]. - The weekly starting rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises is 61.6%, a 0.6 - percentage - point decrease from last week. The starting rates of aluminum cables, profiles, strips, and foils have all declined [2]. - On November 6, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 622,000 tons. In November, the pressure of weak inventory accumulation increases, which may have a negative impact on aluminum prices [2].

Core Viewpoint - Domestic urban construction steel prices are experiencing a weak trend, with spot prices generally declining by 0-20 yuan per ton, indicating a poor market transaction atmosphere [1] Summary by Category Price Movement - On October 11, domestic urban construction steel prices showed a weak performance, with a general decline in spot prices ranging from 0 to 20 yuan per ton [1] Market Activity - The total transaction volume of construction steel nationwide reached 91,389 tons, representing a day-on-day decrease of 7.09% [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with its center of gravity shifting downward and showing a weak performance [1][3] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to remain high in the short term, with the market's supply - demand pattern improving marginally and social inventory decreasing due to pre - holiday stocking [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yungui region's short - flow construction steel producers will have a shutdown and maintenance period from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - flow steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The price of finished products continued to decline with a new low, and the market sentiment was pessimistic under the weak supply - demand pattern and lackluster winter storage [3] Aluminum - Macroscopically, there are increasing differences within the Fed on future monetary policy, and a balance needs to be struck between high inflation and a weak employment market [2] - The supply of the aluminum market has a slight increase due to the ramping - up of replacement capacity, and the supply - demand pattern is improving marginally. As of last Thursday, the national metallurgical - grade alumina's total built - in capacity is 110.32 million tons/year, and the total operating capacity is 92.33 million tons/year, with the weekly operating rate up 0.92 percentage points to 83.69% [3] - The overall aluminum consumption is warming up, with stable growth in the automotive industry, growth expectations in the power industry, and marginal improvement in the construction industry. The operating rate of processed materials is rising steadily [3] - On September 25, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 617,000 tons, a decrease of 21,000 tons from Monday and last Thursday [3]

Core Viewpoint - Silver Dragon Co., Ltd. has signed a steel purchase contract with China Railway Shanghai Engineering Bureau Group, amounting to 165 million yuan [1] Group 1 - The contract was signed on September 9, 2025, under the contract number SXTL-3-WZMM-2025048 [1] - The total contract value is 165 million yuan [1]