Report Overview 1) Industry Investment Rating - No clear industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move down with a weak trend, and the aluminum price is expected to run at a high level. The finished products are expected to be in a state of shock and consolidation, while the aluminum price is expected to have short - term range fluctuations [1][3][4]. 3) Summary by Related Content Finished Products - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown is from mid - January, with an expected impact on the total output of 741,000 tons. Anhui's 6 short - process steel mills have different shutdown times, with a daily impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2][3]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% month - on - month and increased by 43.2% year - on - year [3]. - The price of finished products continued to decline, hitting a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center continued to move down. Winter storage was sluggish this year, with weak price support [3]. - The view is that the finished products will run in a state of shock and consolidation, and later attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [3]. Aluminum - Macro - level: The US data on Thursday triggered market concerns about the inflation and the interest - rate cut process. Traders tend to expect a 25 - basis - point cut next month and another 25 - basis - point cut in October [2]. - Fundamentals: As of Thursday, the national metallurgical alumina's total built capacity is 110.32 million tons/year, and the total operating capacity is 91.79 million tons/year. The weekly operating rate increased by 0.63 percentage points to 83.20%. The domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises' operating rate increased slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7%. The aluminum cable operating rate remained stable at 61.8%. The total output of aluminum rods in July was 360,500 tons, a decrease of 29,600 tons from June. The operating rate of aluminum rod manufacturers was only 53.2%, a decrease of 6.89% month - on - month and 6.7% year - on - year [3]. - Inventory: On August 14, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 588,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from Monday and 24,000 tons from last Thursday [3]. - Outlook: The macro - level interest - rate cut expectation supports the price. The short - term aluminum price is boosted by mine - end news. It is expected to run at a high level in the near future. The 8 - month aluminum rod supply - demand pattern is expected to improve, but attention should be paid to macro - sentiment, mine - end news, etc. [4].

2025年，我国经济所面临的外部环境更趋复杂严峻，面对外部贸易保护主义加剧的冲击，我国政府加强 逆周期调节力度，实施更加积极的财政政策、适度宽松的货币政策、强化宏观政策民生导向、打好政 策"组合拳"，增强政策合力；坚定实施扩大内需战略，做大做强国内大循环，在扩大开放中拓展国际合 作空间，实现国内国际双循环在更高水平上相互促进、良性互动。在积极有为的宏观政策逐步发力显效 带动下，上半年我国经济运行延续稳中向好发展态势，展现出强大韧性和活力。 一、2025年上半年建筑钢材需求继续下滑 2025年上半年，我国房地产与基建行业总体呈现"房地产筑底企稳、基建承压托底"的复杂运行态势。 在"因城施策"等各项政策支持下，房地产行业多项指标降幅持续收窄，市场初显企稳迹象；基建投资则 扮演了经济"稳定器"的角色，但受地方财政压力和专项债发行节奏及使用的影响，对钢材需求的拉动效 应尚未完全释放。 1、2025年上半年基建投资增速有所放缓 2025年，我国财政政策更加积极，持续用力、更加给力。财政赤字率拟按4%左右安排、比上年提高1个 百分点，赤字规模5.66万亿元、比上年增加1.6万亿元。一般公共预算支出规模29.7万亿元、比上 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report suggests taking a short - selling approach on rallies for both finished products and raw materials [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Real Estate Transaction Data - From June 9th to June 15th, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.6088 million square meters, with a 24% month - on - month increase and a 3.6% year - on - year decrease; the total transaction (signing) area of second - hand housing was 2.1823 million square meters, with a 17.8% month - on - month increase and a 5.4% year - on - year increase [3] Steel Mill Cost and Profit - On June 17th, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3262 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2 yuan/ton, an average profit loss of 129 yuan/ton, and a valley - electricity profit loss of 26 yuan/ton [3] Market Situation and Suggestion - The finished products oscillated and sorted at a low level yesterday, with downstream demand seasonally weakened and difficult to improve effectively in the short term, while high - start and high - output situations still exist, presenting a situation of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to try short - selling on rallies [3] - The view on raw materials is also to try short - selling on rallies [3]

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