2025.09. 16 本文字数：532，阅读时长大约1分钟 作者 | 一财阿驴 09:32 房地产板块盘初拉升，香江控股涨停，荣盛发展、首开股份、海泰发展跟涨。 09:27 黄金概念股高开，上海建工3连板，北方铜业、西部黄金涨超5%，晓程科技、鹏欣资源、中 金黄金纷纷上涨。 09:26 A股开盘丨三大指数集体高开 上证指数涨0.14%，深成指涨0.09%，创业板指涨0.2%。贵金属、黄金、煤炭板块涨幅居前，养 鸡、猪肉、种业、互联网保险板块表现低迷。 | 代码 | 名称 | 两日图 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | 上证指数 | V | 3865.98c | 5.48 | 0.14% | | 399001 | 深证成指 | NM | 13017.58c | 11.80 | 0.09% | | 399006 | 创业板指 | W | 3072.30c | 6.12 | 0.20% | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | F | 其他电源设备 | -0.64% | -0.6 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the photovoltaic and wind energy sectors, emphasizing the importance of supply chain integration and government policies [1][5][24]. Core Insights - The photovoltaic industry is undergoing a "de-involution" movement, with significant government intervention expected to address low-price competition and excess capacity [5][24]. - The wind energy sector is projected to maintain a robust installation capacity of over 100GW in 2026, despite a slowdown in bidding activity [1][12][24]. - The report highlights the importance of government policies, such as the U.S. "Big Beautiful Act," which alleviates uncertainties for solar and storage exports to the U.S. [1][3][5]. Summary by Sections Photovoltaic & Energy Storage - The "de-involution" initiative in the photovoltaic sector has reached a high level, with government meetings signaling strong administrative intervention to address pricing issues and capacity clearing [5][24]. - Supply chain integration is crucial, particularly in the silicon material segment, which is central to the current capacity surplus [5][24]. - The report anticipates a recovery in silicon prices, contingent on the downstream price transmission capabilities and collective self-discipline within the industry [5][24]. Wind Energy - The domestic price of onshore wind turbines has shown a recovery trend in Q2, with expectations for continued strong installation capacity in 2026 [1][12][24]. - The report notes that even with a slowdown in bidding, historical data suggests that installation figures will remain stable due to previously approved projects [12][24]. - The central government has reiterated its commitment to promoting orderly development in offshore wind energy [1][12][24]. Electric Grid - Recent approvals for high-voltage direct current projects indicate significant investment potential, with expected project investments exceeding 500 billion and 170 billion yuan for specific projects [2][14][15]. - The report highlights the anticipated increase in equipment bidding for high-voltage projects, projecting a breakthrough of 500 billion yuan in 2025 [15][17]. Lithium Battery - The report emphasizes the long-term potential of lithium metal anodes, which can achieve higher energy densities compared to traditional materials [2][18][24]. - It suggests a focus on leading companies in various processing routes for lithium metal anodes, as well as solid-state battery technologies [18][24]. Hydrogen and Fuel Cells - The extension of tax credits for hydrogen projects in the U.S. provides a critical window for industry development [3][23]. - The European Union's new framework for clean industrial support is expected to accelerate the deployment of green hydrogen projects [3][23]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific companies across various sectors, including photovoltaic glass manufacturers, battery cell producers, and offshore wind cable suppliers, highlighting their potential for recovery and growth [24].

Group 1: Policy Developments - The Ministry of Commerce announced plans to implement a vehicle trade-in program and increase support for purchasing new energy vehicles (NEVs) to unlock consumption potential [1] - Multiple government departments, including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, revealed future policy directions for the NEV industry at the China Electric Vehicle 100 Forum [1] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) plans to strategically restructure central state-owned enterprises in the vehicle sector to enhance industry concentration and create globally competitive automotive groups [1] Group 2: Industry Chain Insights - The NEV industry chain includes upstream raw materials (lithium, nickel, cobalt), midstream battery and component manufacturing, and downstream vehicle manufacturing and supporting services [2] - The total number of NEVs in China has exceeded 30 million, indicating continuous improvement across all segments of the industry chain [2] - The separation of vehicle and battery pricing is suggested to optimize the industry chain structure [2] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The NEV vehicle manufacturing sector is expected to benefit from the strategic restructuring of central state-owned enterprises, leading to optimization and upgrades [3] - The battery swapping sector is poised for new growth opportunities as the vehicle-battery separation model gains traction, with leading companies already investing in swap network construction [3] - The NEV insurance sector is likely to benefit from policy optimizations, leading to increased premium growth due to the rising number of NEVs [4] Group 4: Key Companies to Watch - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (CATL) is actively promoting the vehicle-battery separation model and has established partnerships with various automakers for battery swapping ecosystems [5] - China Pacific Insurance (601319) is positioning itself in the NEV insurance market, with expectations to maintain a comprehensive cost ratio below 100% by 2025, benefiting from the growth in NEV ownership [5] - Changan Automobile (000625) aims to achieve sales of 1 million units in overseas markets by 2025, supported by policies promoting NEV exports [5] - Teradyne (300001), a leader in battery swapping facilities, is expected to see growth in its swapping business as the vehicle-battery separation model advances [5] - Youche Technology is focusing on digital services for NEV companies, with a projected 13.70% year-on-year revenue growth from NEV clients in 2024, indicating strong business momentum [5]