全国狭义财政收入由负转正，折射经济稳中向好。 8月19日，财政部披露今年前7个月财政收支情况。1~7月，全国一般公共预算收入135839亿元，同比增 长0.1%。 今年以来全国一般公共预算收入增速出现下滑，不过降幅逐步缩窄，随着7月份收入增幅（2.6%）创下 年内新高，带动全国一般公共预算收入累计增速首次实现由负转正。 近几个月税收收入保持增长，折射经济运行向好。不过总体来看税收收入累计增速依然低于经济增速 （上半年经济增速为5.3%）。 财政部数据显示，今年前7个月全国非税收入24906亿元，同比增长2%。这一增幅明显低于去年同期数 据（12%）。 除了一般公共预算收入外，以地方卖地收入为主的政府性基金收入也是广义财政收入重要的组成部分。 国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖近日公开表示，受多重因素影响，7月份部分经济指标有所波动，但主要 指标累计增速保持总体平稳，就业物价总体稳定，经济平稳运行态势没有改变。 税收收入方面，今年前7个月，全国税收收入110933亿元，同比下降0.3%，这一降幅持续缩窄。其中7 月份，全国税收收入18018亿元，同比增长5%，月度增幅自4月份由负转正后持续回升。 对于税收增速与经济增速 ...

2025.08. 19 本文字数：1810，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈益刊 全国狭义财政收入增速由负转正，折射经济稳中向好。 8月19日，财政部公布今年前7个月财政收支情况。1-7月，全国一般公共预算收入135839亿元，同 比增长0.1%。 今年以来全国一般公共预算收入增速出现下滑，不过，降幅逐步缩窄。随着7月份这一收入增幅 （2.6%）创下年内新高，带动全国一般公共预算收入累计增速首次实现由负转正，折射了经济运行 总体平稳。 国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖近日公开表示，受多重因素影响，7月份部分经济指标有所波动，但主 要指标累计增速保持总体平稳，就业物价总体稳定，经济平稳运行态势没有改变。 全国一般公共预算收入由税收收入和非税收入组成，其中又以税收为主，税收也被称为"经济晴雨 表"。 根据财政部数据， 今年前7个月，全国税收收入110933亿元，同比下降0.3%，这一降幅持续缩窄。 其中7月份，全国税收收入18018亿元，同比增长5%，月度增幅自4月份由负转正后持续回升。 近几个月税收收入保持增长，折射经济运行向好。不过总体来看税收收入累计增速依然低于经济增速 （上半年经济增速为5.3%）。 ...

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% year-on-year in June, marking the first rise after four consecutive months of decline [2][3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, indicating ongoing pressure on industrial prices, particularly in coal, electricity, and black metal smelting sectors [2][5] - The marginal improvement in CPI is attributed to the recovery in industrial consumer goods prices, which saw a reduction in the year-on-year decline from 1.0% to 0.5% [3][4] Group 2 - Food prices experienced a year-on-year decline of 0.3%, with beef prices rising by 2.7% after 28 months of continuous decline, while pork prices fell by 8.5% [3][4] - Energy prices showed a slight recovery, with gasoline prices increasing by 0.4% month-on-month, contributing to a 0.1% rise in overall energy prices [4] - The core CPI rose by 0.7% year-on-year, the highest increase in nearly 14 months, indicating a stable rise in service prices [4][5] Group 3 - Industrial prices remain under significant pressure, with coal mining and washing prices dropping by 5.5% and 3.4% respectively, primarily due to ample supply and reduced thermal power demand [5][6] - Export-oriented industries, such as computer communication equipment and textiles, are facing price declines, reflecting weak external demand and trade barriers [5][6] - Some high-tech sectors, including wearable smart devices and aerospace manufacturing, are showing positive price growth, indicating resilience in new momentum industries [6]

Group 1 - Guangxi's industrial added value increased by 8.1% from January to May this year, with industrial product export delivery value growing by 34.8% [1] - Automotive exports rose by 24.3%, while computer and communication equipment exports increased by 25.9% [1] - Guangxi is building cross-border industrial and supply chains, establishing an advanced manufacturing base aimed at ASEAN, providing significant opportunities for companies to expand internationally [1] Group 2 - Guangxi has launched a cross-border trade financial interconnectivity platform, pioneering online customs information verification and enterprise directory registration [2] - The platform supports direct settlement paths for cross-border e-commerce between China and ASEAN, facilitating over 1.2 billion RMB in loans for enterprises [2] - From January to May, Guangxi's cross-border e-commerce import and export value exceeded 23 billion RMB, marking a year-on-year growth of over 160% [2]

Core Insights - Guangdong's consumer market is showing significant recovery, driven by the successful implementation of the trade-in policy, leading to record retail growth in furniture and building materials [1][6] Retail Performance - In April, Guangdong's total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.9% year-on-year, with a 0.5 percentage point improvement from the first quarter [3] - Retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment, furniture, and building materials surged by 86.9%, 123.5%, and 156.9% respectively, marking historic highs for furniture and building materials [3][6] - Nationally, retail sales of household appliances and furniture grew by 38.8% and 26.9% respectively in April, while building materials saw a monthly increase of 9.7% [3] Online Consumption and New Business Models - From January to April, Guangdong's manufacturing sector grew by 4.1%, with notable increases in computer and communication equipment (7.1%), automotive manufacturing (7.8%), and general equipment (10%) [4] - Online retail through public networks saw a year-on-year increase of 20%, with April's growth reaching 31.9%, indicating a strong shift towards online shopping [5] Trade-in Policy Impact - The trade-in policy in Guangdong has significantly boosted retail growth in home furnishings and building materials, with 2024 sales reaching 153.45 billion yuan, benefiting over 11.28 million consumers [6] - The policy has been expanded for 2025 to include smart home products and aging-friendly renovations, with substantial subsidies for vehicle trade-ins and home appliance upgrades [6] - Retail sales for home appliances, furniture, and building materials in the first four months of 2025 grew by 44%, 60.6%, and 29.2% respectively, far exceeding national averages [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the resilience of China's economy in April, driven by coordinated macro policies that have led to stable and rapid growth in key economic indicators [1] - Fixed asset investment in China from January to April increased by 4.0% year-on-year, with equipment investment growing at a remarkable rate of 18.2% and manufacturing investment maintaining a high growth rate of 8.8% [1] - The "old for new" policy has effectively connected the investment, production, and consumption sectors, resulting in significant consumer spending and economic activity [3] Group 2 - In the first quarter, the revenue growth rate of industrial enterprises was 3.4%, with new productivity sectors like automotive manufacturing and electrical machinery contributing nearly 30% to this growth [2] - The fixed asset investment growth rate for new productivity themes has rebounded to 15.5%, significantly outpacing traditional manufacturing investment growth by nearly 6 percentage points [2] - The "old for new" policy led to the replacement of 49.416 million consumer goods, generating related consumption of 720 billion yuan, marking a significant boost in retail sales [3] Group 3 - Future projections indicate that China's economy is expected to maintain stable growth, supported by incremental fiscal policies and a supportive monetary policy that provides ample liquidity to the real economy [4] - Strategic emerging industries are anticipated to continue their rapid growth, becoming a crucial driver of economic expansion [4] - The impact of U.S.-China tariff tensions on exports is expected to weaken, aided by manufacturing expansion overseas and the deepening of the Belt and Road Initiative [4]

期货研究报告|宏观数据 2025-05-20 经济压力持续改善 ——中国 2025 年 4 月经济数据图景 研究院 徐闻宇 xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 宏观事件 5 月 19 日，国家统计局数据显示，今年 4 月份，面对外部冲击影响加大、内部困难挑 战叠加的复杂局面，我国经济顶住压力稳定增长，延续向新向好发展态势。 核心观点 经济增长：2025 年一季度 GDP 总按不变价格同比增长 5.4%，高于 2024 年全年增速 5.0% 和 2024 年一季度增速 5.3%，环比增速连续五个季度保持在 1.0%以上。产业结构上， 第三产业占比提升。 通货膨胀：2025 年 4 月 PPI 同比下降 2.7%（降幅较 3 月扩大 0.2 个百分点），环比下降 0.4%（降幅与上月持平）。主要受国际输入性压力和国内能源需求季节性走弱影响。 2025 年 4 月， CPI 环比由 3 月的下降 0.4%转为上涨 0.1%，涨幅高于季节性水平 0.2 个 百分点，主要受食品和出行服务价格回升推动。 投资生 ...

Group 1: Economic Performance - In April, the sales revenue of enterprises in China increased by 4.3% year-on-year, continuing the steady growth trend since the fourth quarter of last year, driven by a series of existing and incremental policies [1] - The eastern region, particularly economic powerhouses like Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Beijing, saw sales revenue growth of 4.8%, with Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Beijing growing by 7.3%, 6.6%, and 5.4% respectively, significantly above the national average [1] Group 2: Industry Growth - In April, industrial enterprises' sales revenue grew by 3.7% year-on-year, with manufacturing sales revenue increasing by 4.4%, primarily driven by the "two new" policies [2] - Specific sectors such as electrical machinery, computer manufacturing, and instrumentation saw sales revenue growth of 12.8%, 15.7%, and 15.9% respectively [2] - High-tech industries and core digital economy sectors reported sales revenue growth of 15.3% and 13.4% year-on-year [3] Group 3: Consumer Policies and Trends - The "old-for-new" consumption promotion policies have positively impacted consumer demand and released residents' consumption potential, with a focus on boosting consumer confidence [3] - As of April 27, the "old-for-new" program led to significant sales, including 281.4 million vehicles and 49.416 million home appliances, contributing over 720 billion yuan to sales [2] Group 4: Foreign Trade and Domestic Sales - In response to uncertainties in international trade, the government has implemented policies to help foreign trade enterprises expand into domestic sales, with domestic sales for companies engaged in exports to the U.S. increasing by 4.7% year-on-year [4] - Among 31 manufacturing categories, 21 saw an increase in the proportion of domestic sales compared to the previous year, with notable increases in sectors like leather products and footwear [4] Group 5: Trade Statistics - In the first four months of the year, China's total goods trade value reached 14.14 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, with exports growing by 7.5% and imports declining by 4.2% [5] - In April, the total goods trade value was 3.84 trillion yuan, growing by 5.6%, with exports increasing by 9.3% and imports by 0.8% [5]