新力量 New Force 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com 总第 4844 期 2025 年 8 月 25 日 星期一 研究观点 【公司研究】 快手(1024，买入）：收入利润全面超预期，重视股东回报首次派息 时代电气（3898，买入）：轨交业务持续向好，半导体进入产能爬坡期 零跑汽车（9863，买入）:领跑新势力销量，半年度净利转正 【公司评论】 拼多多（PDD.US）：2025 年第二季度业绩前瞻 【行业评论】 科技行业周报：算力景气延续，软硬件协同助力国产算力爆发 【宏观经济评论】 第一上海——First Call 8 月策略 评级变化 | 公司 | 代码 | 评级 | 目标价(港元） | | | 2025年EPS(港元) | | | 2026年EPS(港元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 新 旧 新 | 旧 | 变动 | 新 | 旧 | 变动 | 新 | 旧 | 变动 | | 快手 | 1024 | 买入 买入 100.00 | 70.00 ...

11 时代电气（3898） 更新报告 买入 2025 年 8 月 25 日 轨交业务持续向好，半导体进入产能爬坡期 陈晓霞 852-2532 1956 xx.chen@firstshanghai.com.hk 黄晨 852-2532 1954 chen.huang@firstshanghai.com.hk | 行业 | 电气制造 | | --- | --- | | 股价 | 39.08 港元 | | 目标价 | 51.3 港元 | | | (+31%) | | 总市值 | 530.7 亿港元 | | 已发行股本 | 13.58 亿股 | | 52 周高/低 | 39.12 港元/23.99 港元 | | 每股净资产 | 29.93 元人民币 | 中车株洲电力机车研究所 44.21% 主要股东 盈利摘要 股价表现 | 截止日12月31日 | 2023实际 | 2024实际 | 2025预测 | 2026预测 | 2027预测 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收入 (百万元人民币) | 21,799 | 24,909 | 27,435 | 30,298 | 33 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4][9]. Core Insights - The company, a subsidiary of the State Grid, is driven by a dual business model of "finance + manufacturing," positioning it to benefit from accelerated investments in the power grid [1][4]. - The carbon asset management business is expected to see sustained high growth due to the establishment of a carbon market framework and increasing trading volumes [2][36]. - The electrical manufacturing segment is poised to benefit from rising investments in distribution networks, with the company being a leader in amorphous transformers [3][46]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a subsidiary of the State Grid Corporation and has diversified into financial services through significant asset restructuring completed in 2020, which included trust, securities, and futures businesses [1][14]. - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 11.288 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.60%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.574 billion yuan, up 15.39% [1][24]. Carbon Asset Management - The carbon asset management business has shown promising growth, with revenue reaching 0.70 billion yuan in 2024, a 13.39% increase year-on-year, and net profit of 0.10 billion yuan, up 14.51% [2][40]. - The company is the only specialized carbon asset management firm within the State Grid system, focusing on carbon trading and management services [2][40]. Electrical Manufacturing - The company’s subsidiary, ZhiXin Electric, is a leader in amorphous alloy transformers, which are expected to benefit from increasing demand due to their energy efficiency advantages [3][46]. - From 2020 to 2024, ZhiXin Electric's revenue grew from 5.001 billion yuan to 7.375 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10%, and net profit increased from 0.16 billion yuan to 1.49 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 75% [3][24]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 12.487 billion yuan, 13.908 billion yuan, and 15.578 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 11%, 11%, and 12% respectively [4][8]. - Net profit is expected to be 1.731 billion yuan, 1.850 billion yuan, and 1.961 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 10%, 7%, and 6% respectively [4][8].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4][9]. Core Views - The company, a subsidiary of the State Grid, is driven by a dual business model of "finance + manufacturing," which positions it to benefit from accelerated investments in the power grid [1][4]. - The carbon asset management business is expected to continue its high growth due to the establishment of a carbon market framework and increasing trading volumes [2][38]. - The electrical manufacturing segment is poised to benefit from rising investments in distribution networks, particularly in amorphous transformers, which are more energy-efficient compared to traditional silicon steel transformers [3][46]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a subsidiary of the State Grid Corporation and has diversified into financial services through significant asset restructuring completed in 2020, which included trust, securities, and futures businesses [1][14]. - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 11.288 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.60%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.574 billion yuan, up 15.39% [1][24]. Carbon Asset Management - The carbon asset management business has shown promising growth, with revenue reaching 0.70 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.39%, and net profit of 0.10 billion yuan, up 14.51% [2][40]. - The company is the only specialized carbon asset management firm within the State Grid system, focusing on carbon trading and management services [2][40]. Electrical Manufacturing - The company’s subsidiary, ZhiXin Electric, is a leader in the production of amorphous alloy transformers, which are expected to gain market share as distribution network investments increase [3][46]. - From 2020 to 2024, ZhiXin Electric's revenue grew from 5.001 billion yuan to 7.375 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10%, and net profit increased from 0.16 billion yuan to 1.49 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 75% [3][24]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 12.487 billion yuan, 13.908 billion yuan, and 15.578 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11%, 11%, and 12% [4][8]. - The expected net profits for the same years are 1.731 billion yuan, 1.850 billion yuan, and 1.961 billion yuan, with growth rates of 10%, 7%, and 6% [4][8].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the "Sweet Potato Economy" theory, which highlights the relationship between local development and openness, advocating for Zhejiang's economic growth through external resource utilization and market expansion [1][3][29]. Group 1: Economic Development and Openness - Zhejiang's economic strategy focuses on "going out" to expand markets, with over 1,000 groups and 10,000 enterprises participating in international market exploration this year [2]. - The province has seen a significant increase in the number of Zhejiang merchants, with over 600,000 in the domestic market and more than 200,000 globally, reflecting the successful implementation of the "Sweet Potato Economy" [3]. - The Ningbo-Zhoushan Port has maintained the highest global cargo throughput for 16 consecutive years, facilitating the "buy global, sell global" narrative of the "Sweet Potato Economy" [6]. Group 2: Infrastructure and Logistics - The establishment of the Zhejiang Free Trade Zone has led to significant innovations and the creation of a comprehensive oil and gas industry chain, enhancing the province's economic capabilities [7]. - Key logistics initiatives include the successful launch of direct logistics channels to Europe, improving the efficiency of cross-border trade [6][9]. - The implementation of a series of open hub initiatives, including the construction of world-class ports and the promotion of international trade, has strengthened Zhejiang's global economic position [6][9]. Group 3: Digital Economy and E-commerce - Zhejiang is leveraging digital economy opportunities, with companies like Yao Wang Technology leading in live-streaming e-commerce, enhancing the reach of Zhejiang-made products [8][9]. - The province's logistics companies, such as Cainiao Group, have established over 40 overseas warehouses, facilitating global supply chain management [8]. - The focus on cross-border e-commerce has led to the development of new digital trade platforms, optimizing logistics and enhancing trade efficiency [9]. Group 4: Business Environment and Government Support - Zhejiang's government emphasizes a supportive business environment, ensuring that services are responsive and efficient for enterprises [10][11]. - The province has implemented reforms to streamline administrative processes, significantly reducing the time required for project approvals [14][15]. - The combination of effective market mechanisms and proactive government support has fostered a conducive environment for business growth [11][19]. Group 5: Innovation and Competitiveness - The article highlights the importance of innovation in driving the growth of private enterprises, with a focus on maintaining core business strengths [20][21]. - Zhejiang's private enterprises are increasingly investing in research and development, with a total R&D expenditure of 265.95 billion yuan in 2024 [26]. - The emphasis on brand development and quality improvement is evident, with initiatives like the "Yiwu Good Goods" brand helping local products reach international markets [27][28].