机构：第一上海 研究员：陈晓霞/黄晨 半导体新工厂满产，新能源发电、汽车电驱趋势向好：宜兴新工厂在25 年中达成3 万片/月满产，收入 实现高速增长。株洲8英寸碳化硅产线正推进设备搬入工作，预计2025 年底实现产线拉通。新能源发电 事业部独立运作，已实现小幅盈利，未来将凭借与中车和株洲所的业务合作，在光伏、储能PCS 上有 更多业务拓展。汽车电驱合作主流车企，站稳第一梯队，新突破奇瑞、上汽等客户，25Q3 交付量显著 提升。 维持买入评级，目标价55.0 港元：预计公司2025-2027 年收入278 亿/309 亿/346 亿元，增速为 11.7%/11.1%/12.0%；净利润分别为41.0 亿/45.8 亿/50.6 亿元，增速为10.7%/11.8%/10.4%。给予公司 2026 年15 倍的PE 估值，目标价55.0 港元，较现价有39%的上升空间，维持买入评级。 25 年前三季度业绩稳健：收入188.3 亿元，同比增长14.9%；归母净利润27.2 亿元，同比增长10.9%；扣 非净利润26.1 亿元，同比增长30.9%。分业务看：轨道交通业务实现收入103.1 亿元，同比增长9.2%； 新兴 ...

11 时代电气（3898） 更新报告 轨交业务平稳释放，看好反内卷政策下新兴业务发展 ➢ 25 年前三季度业绩稳健：收入 188.3 亿元，同比增长 14.9%； 归母净利润 27.2 亿元，同比增长 10.9%；扣非净利润 26.1 亿元， 同比增长 30.9%。分业务看：轨道交通业务实现收入 103.1 亿元， 同比增长 9.2%；新兴装备业务实现收入人民币 84.3 亿元，同比增 长 22.3%，其中基础器件收入 38.4 亿元，同比增长 30.4%，新能 源发电收入 15.9 亿元，同比增长 25.3%，新能源汽车电驱 18.7 亿 元，同比增长 9.3%。前三季度公司综合毛利率同比提升 3.1 个百 分点至 32.4%，主要为收入结构变化所致。 ➢ 轨交业务平稳增长，维保占比提升，新业务高速成长：国铁 客运客运量屡创新高，带动 25 年动车组招标超预期，订单持续交 付推动业绩平稳增长。以旧换新政策推动老旧内燃机车陆续退出市 场，给机车带来持续增量需求。25 年前三季度维保业务占轨交收 入比例约 22%，相比去年同期高速增长，看好国铁和城轨的维保 需求释放。此外，公司在轨交领域持续拓展新领域，通信信号 ...

智通财经APP获悉，第一上海发布研报称，维持时代电气(03898)"买入"评级，目标价55.0港元。该行预 计公司2025-2027年收入278亿/309亿/346亿元，增速为11.7%/11.1%/12.0%;净利润分别为41.0亿/45.8 亿/50.6亿元，增速为10.7%/11.8%/10.4%。 第一上海主要观点如下： 25年前三季度业绩稳健 收入188.3亿元，同比增长14.9%;归母净利润27.2亿元，同比增长10.9%;扣非净利润26.1亿元，同比增长 30.9%。分业务看：轨道交通业务实现收入103.1亿元，同比增长9.2%;新兴装备业务实现收入人民币84.3 亿元，同比增长22.3%，其中基础器件收入38.4亿元，同比增长30.4%，新能源发电收入15.9亿元，同比 增长25.3%，新能源汽车电驱18.7亿元，同比增长9.3%。前三季度公司综合毛利率同比提升3.1个百分点 至32.4%，主要为收入结构变化所致。 轨交业务平稳增长，维保占比提升，新业务高速成长 国铁客运客运量屡创新高，带动25年动车组招标超预期，订单持续交付推动业绩平稳增长。以旧换新政 策推动老旧内燃机车陆续煺出市场，给机车 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance in H1 2025, with significant growth in revenue and net profit, driven by various business segments, particularly in rail transportation and emerging equipment sectors [1][2]. Financial Performance - Revenue reached 12.21 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 17.9% - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.67 billion RMB, up 12.9% year-on-year - Non-recurring net profit stood at 1.59 billion RMB, reflecting a 37.0% year-on-year growth, accelerating from 29.5% in Q1 2025 [1]. Business Segment Analysis - Rail transportation business generated 6.91 billion RMB in revenue, a 12.6% increase year-on-year - Emerging equipment business achieved revenue of 5.24 billion RMB, growing by 25.9%, with foundational components revenue at 2.42 billion RMB (up 29.1%) and new energy generation revenue at 1.05 billion RMB (up 42.9%) - Revenue from electric drive for new energy vehicles was 1.00 billion RMB, a modest increase of 1.3% [1][2]. Profitability Metrics - The overall gross margin improved by 4.4 percentage points to 32.0% due to enhanced profitability across all business segments and changes in revenue structure - The company declared a dividend of 0.44 RMB per share (including tax), with a payout ratio of 35.75% [1]. Industry Outlook - The rail transit business is expected to continue its optimistic growth, with maintenance services accounting for approximately 23% of rail revenue, indicating strong future demand in both national rail and urban rail maintenance [2]. - The semiconductor sector is also on an upward trajectory, with the new factory's capacity ramping up, contributing to a 29.1% year-on-year increase in foundational components revenue [2]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 27.4 billion RMB, 30.3 billion RMB, and 33.0 billion RMB for the years 2025-2027, with growth rates of 10.1%, 10.4%, and 9.0% respectively - Net profits are expected to be 4.27 billion RMB, 4.77 billion RMB, and 5.29 billion RMB for the same period, with growth rates of 15.4%, 11.7%, and 10.8% respectively [3]. Investment Rating - The company maintains a buy rating with a target price of 51.3 HKD, representing a potential upside of 31% from the current price, based on a 15x PE valuation for 2025 [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 51.3, representing a potential upside of 31% from the current price of HKD 39.08 [2][5]. Core Insights - The company's rail transit business continues to perform well, with maintenance services gaining a larger share of revenue. The demand for new trains is expected to increase due to high passenger volumes and government policies promoting the replacement of old locomotives [5]. - The semiconductor segment is entering a capacity ramp-up phase, with significant growth in revenue from core components and new energy generation. The company is also establishing itself in the automotive electric drive sector [5]. - Revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are optimistic, with projected revenues of RMB 27.4 billion, RMB 30.3 billion, and RMB 33.0 billion, respectively, and net profits of RMB 4.3 billion, RMB 4.8 billion, and RMB 5.3 billion [4][5]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, the company reported revenue of RMB 21.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20.9%, and a net profit of RMB 3.1 billion, up 21.5% [4][6]. - The company’s gross margin improved by 4.4 percentage points to 32.0%, driven by a favorable change in revenue structure across its business segments [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to grow from RMB 2.20 in 2023 to RMB 3.12 in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 19.1% [4][6].

Company Overview - Jiuzhou Group was founded in 1993, focusing on smart distribution networks and energy sectors, and is a leading provider of new power and energy infrastructure [1] - The company is a national key high-tech enterprise and was successfully listed on the Chinese Growth Enterprise Market in 2010 (stock code: 300040) [1] - Jiuzhou Group has established three core business segments: smart distribution networks, new energy, and comprehensive energy services [2] Business Operations - The group manages over 40 subsidiaries across multiple provinces and regions in China, with a marketing service network covering 30 provinces and autonomous regions [2] - The company has been recognized as a key software enterprise and has received numerous honors, including being listed among the top 100 private technology companies in China [2] - Since 2015, Jiuzhou Group has transitioned from a pure equipment supplier to a modern intelligent manufacturing model, integrating products, engineering design, construction, financial services, and operation maintenance [2] Technological Advancements - The company has over 200 patents and has established a strong presence in more than 70 countries and regions [3] - As of December 2024, Jiuzhou Group has constructed, controlled, and held new energy power station capacity exceeding 2.7 GW, with an additional 1 GW in projects under construction [3] Financial Aspects - The company has over 1 billion CNY in overdue national subsidies, primarily for electricity subsidies, with delays typically ranging from 2 to 3 years [4][5] - The smart distribution network business has an order volume exceeding 800 million CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of over 30% [8] - The company aims for a revenue growth target of 30% in the smart distribution network segment and 10% in both new energy and comprehensive energy segments for 2025 [12] Market Outlook - The company anticipates significant growth in its export business over the next five years, driven by the demand for equipment upgrades in both domestic and international markets [6] - The management is optimistic about future growth due to the recovery of investment in the power grid and the transition of clean energy projects from development to construction phases [8] - The potential market for decentralized wind power and clean energy heating is substantial, with nearly 300 county-level administrative units and over 3,000 townships in Northeast China [11]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, with revenue and net profit showing significant year-on-year growth, indicating robust business operations across various segments [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 4.537 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.81%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 631 million yuan, up 13.42% [1]. - The non-recurring net profit reached 597 million yuan, reflecting a substantial growth of 29.52% year-on-year [1]. Segment Analysis - The rail transit equipment business generated revenue of 2.347 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.72%, with the electrical equipment segment contributing 1.923 billion yuan [2]. - The emerging equipment business reported revenue of 2.171 billion yuan, up 20.88% year-on-year, with significant contributions from basic components and new energy vehicle electric drive systems [2]. - The overall gross margin for Q1 2025 was 33.50%, an increase of 3.84 percentage points from the previous year, driven by changes in revenue structure and cost reduction efforts [2]. Semiconductor Business - The semiconductor segment saw revenue of approximately 1.172 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.63%, with IGBT revenue growing by 35.01% [3]. - High-voltage IGBT revenue reached 403 million yuan, marking a remarkable year-on-year growth of 171.91% [3]. - New production lines are being established, with expectations to reach design capacity by the end of 2025 [3]. Deep Sea Business Strategy - The company aims to enhance its deep-sea robotics business through market opportunity capture, technological innovation, and improved manufacturing capabilities [4]. - There is a focus on developing electric and intelligent deep-sea equipment to meet the growing market demand in underwater oil and gas, wind power, and mining sectors [4]. - The company is confident in leveraging policy and market opportunities to drive growth in its marine equipment sector [4]. Future Outlook - The company maintains a "buy" rating, anticipating continued growth in rail transit and semiconductor sectors, with projected net profits of 4.35 billion yuan and 4.9 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Views - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 4.537 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.81%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 631 million yuan, up 13.42% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items reached 597 million yuan, marking a significant increase of 29.52% [5][11] - The company's rail transit equipment and emerging equipment businesses continue to develop steadily, with expectations for ongoing growth in the rail transit sector and favorable conditions in semiconductor and new energy generation sectors [2][11] - The semiconductor segment showed a positive trend, with revenues of approximately 1.172 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 22.63%. The IGBT revenue specifically grew by 35.01% to 1.063 billion yuan, with high-voltage IGBT revenue soaring by 171.91% [11] - The company is strategically focusing on deep-sea robotics, aiming to enhance its market position through technological innovation and improved manufacturing capabilities [11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a total revenue of 4.537 billion yuan, with a gross profit margin of 33.50%, an increase of 3.84 percentage points from the previous year [5][11] - The rail transit equipment business generated 2.347 billion yuan in revenue, up 10.72% year-on-year, while the emerging equipment business saw revenues of 2.171 billion yuan, a growth of 20.88% [11] Business Segments - The rail transit equipment segment's revenue structure improved, with the share of electrical equipment increasing from 76% to 82% of total rail transit equipment revenue [11] - The emerging equipment segment's revenue from basic components rose from 49% to 53% of its total revenue [11] Future Outlook - The company expects to achieve net profits of 4.35 billion yuan and 4.90 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to price-earnings ratios of 14.3 and 12.7 times [11]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a solid performance in Q1 2025, with revenue and net profit showing significant year-on-year growth, driven by both rail transit equipment and emerging equipment sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 4.537 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.81% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 631 million yuan, up 13.42% year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit was 597 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 29.52% [1]. - The overall gross margin for Q1 2025 was 33.50%, an increase of 3.84 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a higher proportion of high-margin rail transit electrical equipment [2]. Group 2: Business Segments - The rail transit equipment segment generated revenue of 2.347 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.72%, with rail transit electrical equipment revenue at 1.923 billion yuan, up 18.89% [2]. - The emerging equipment segment reported revenue of 2.171 billion yuan, a growth of 20.88% year-on-year, with significant contributions from basic components and industrial converters [2]. - The semiconductor business, particularly in the new energy vehicle market, saw a revenue increase of 22.63% in Q1 2025 [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the high demand in rail transit maintenance and the replacement of old diesel locomotives, alongside the rapid growth of the emerging equipment sector [3]. - Forecasts indicate that the company will achieve net profits of 4.357 billion yuan, 4.841 billion yuan, and 5.234 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.18, 3.54, and 3.82 yuan [3].